As soon as outgoing Prime Minister Sanna Marin announced her intention to step down as leader of the Social Democrats (SDP) on Wednesday, the speculation began as to what her next role might be.
Marin told reporters at a press briefing that she plans to continue as a backbench MP, but declined to comment further as to her specific plans for the future.
Marin has garnered much international attention since taking over as SDP leader from her predecessor Antti Rinne in December 2019, becoming at the time the youngest prime minister in the world.
Although the SDP finished in third place in the parliamentary election, Marin herself received over 35,000 votes — the second highest tally in the country — which has left analysts wondering if Marin will really sit out the next four years in Parliament as a rank-and-file MP.
Kimmo Grönlund, a professor of political science at Åbo Akademi, told Yle he believes that Marin will be a backbench lawmaker, at least initially.
"Simply because she has just won a huge personal vote in the Pirkanmaa constituency and led her party to success, although the party did lose its place at the largest party in parliament," Grönlund said.
Grönlund further observed that Marin's situation is similar to that of former Prime Minister Paavo Lipponen — also of the Social Democrats — after losing an election to the Centre Party in 2003.
"Lipponen remained an MP at the time and was elected Speaker of Parliament," he said.
Marin has not commented about the possibility of becoming speaker, and Grönlund noted this will depend on the outcome of coalition negotiations, as the speaker traditionally comes from the government parties.
"Rock-star politician"
Similar to Marin, both Juha Sipilä of the Centre Party and Jussi Halla-aho of the Finns Party remained in parliament as backbench MPs after stepping down from leading their respective parties.
"But when you think about the difference between them [Sipilä and Halla-aho] and Sanna Marin, she is a unique rock-star politician in Finland," Grönlund said, adding that Marin is by far the most popular party leader.
"She also has a huge global following on Instagram, and she is a respected speaker, internationally respected, for having the courage to speak out, for example, about Russia," he said.
Is Marin's future abroad?
As Marin noted herself during Wednesday morning's press conference, she is unlikely to become Finland's EU Commissioner, as this position is normally reserved for a member of the Prime Minister's party.
Marin could however run for the European Parliament in elections due to be held next year, Grönlund said, and there are many other potential opportunities for her outside of Finland.
"The International Monetary Fund? The United Nations? I think she would have a real flair for international affairs," he said, adding that he can understand why Marin would not be tempted to run for the office of Finnish President.
"Sanna Marin is a good communicator and ideologue. I don't think she wants to run for President of the Republic. That will be left to a slightly older candidate this time," Grönlund said.
As for the contenders to replace Marin as SDP leader, Grönlund told Yle he thinks Antti Lindtman, Minister of European Affairs Tytti Tuppurainen and Social Services Minister Krista Kiuru will be the main contenders.
"I believe that the SDP's support has at least a two-percent Sanna Marin premium. The new leader will have to step into the shoes of the rock star and that will be difficult," he added.
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