Charly Salonius-Pasternak, a senior researcher at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA), told Yle TV1's breakfast show on Monday morning that Russia's attitude towards Finland could change if Donald Trump wins next year's US presidential election.
A number of international news outlets — including the New York Times, Rolling Stone magazine and the Atlantic — have noted that a second Trump presidency could lead to the US stepping back from its lead role within the Nato alliance.
If this were to happen, Salonius-Pasternak said he believes this could lead to Russian President Vladimir Putin viewing the war in Ukraine as a political success, and may even encourage him to attack a Nato member state.
"This is why every reservist in Finland should really think about it, and promise themselves that by the beginning of 2025 they will be physically and mentally fit," Salonius-Pasternak said, but clarified that he did not mean Finland should prepare for war in 2025.
"In principle, it is always a good idea to maintain physical fitness and keep a home stocked with essentials," he said.
However, he further noted that Finland must be prepared for all eventualities, including even a dramatic change to the current circumstances.
"The situation could change if the incoming US President's support and desire for European defence diminishes at a time when there has been no increase in European defence capabilities, and also while Russia sees its military operation as a success. If the pieces fall into place in the wrong way, Russia could do something militarily that would attempt to break the EU or Nato," Salonius-Pasternak stated.
Not likely, but possible
Salonius-Pasternak emphasised that he does not consider a military threat to Finland to be likely, but nevertheless possible. He also noted that Russia's armed forces are now larger than they were at the beginning of the war in Ukraine, in February 2022.
"I'm not saying that this is the most likely scenario, but it's a future worth preparing for. When you think about what the different options are, then of course Finland should also prepare for the worst option, not just the more comfortable ones," he said.
Yle reported on Sunday that Finland's ambassador to the United States Mikko Hautala has sought to speak to Donald Trump about Nato issues and Finland's place within the alliance.
Given Trump's views on Nato and tendency to criticise large international organisations, Salonius-Pasternak said the ambassador's efforts are a sign of good diplomacy as Trump also values bilateral relations.
"This is where the bilateral defence cooperation agreement between Finland and the United States could rise to an unpredictable level," he noted.
The Defence Cooperation Agreement (DCA) between Finland and the US is due to be signed next week.
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