Ah, thank you!
I’ve spent most of the day pondering this, in-between panicking over Middle Welsh, and I have to say: I don’t know.
On one hand - As you said, it’s shot, it’s done. It almost seems like a waste to not formally release it. I don’t know what the rights situation looks like, but they did it once, they could do it again. And, furthermore, IF they were going to do it, it would be THIS cast. Furukawa as Mozart’s been a massive draw; there were a lot of people mad that they didn’t release a CD or DVD the first time around, so they have the advantage of hype.
That being said….it wouldn’t be the first time I’ve seen something shot and then never formally released on DVD. It’s very much the norm in Korea, and it’s what I’ve observed with, say, Shiki productions. (ROBOT IN THE GARDEN DVD *WHEN*, SHIKI?) Toho could very well hype up the livestream and be like “I’m sorry :( But we just can’t :( BUT you can still :) Buy :) The previous DVDs :)” and it would be very in keeping with Toho’s way of doing things, especially since they’ve never released a DVD twice. (But…again, see above for how, if they were GOING to do it, it would be this cast.)
Corona….messed up my groove for predicting things, because livestreams got on the table. If you’d asked me about this two years ago, I wouldn’t have known what to think, but here we are. Livestreams are rapidly becoming a third option, especially in the Japanese and Korean market, which means, on one hand, that we have more options for getting ahold of musicals than ever (even though VPNs are a bitch and they scare me, so I stick to using proxies), BUT things are so much less predictable than they used to be. I will say that I’ve seen two musicals get livestreams before being released on DVD: Poe Clan and INSPIRE, though both of them, as far as I know, aren’t formal Toho productions even if Toho had its hands in them, which complicates things further (since Mozart is VERY thoroughly Toho.)
What I would suggest, knowing how Toho does things? This might be a test run. See how good the hype is, how many people are willing to buy, and then make a decision based off of that. Toho likes to test the waters before they release things, usually via CD sales (hence why 1789, Lady Bess, etc. had CDs before being released on DVD shortly afterwards.) They MIGHT release it on DVD. It’s not out of the running, and this is a good step in that direction. It’s so far afield of what Toho would normally do that I’m not going to be MORE optimistic than that, but I’m also not going to be less. Likewise, for what it’s worth, with Romeo and Juliette. Some very interesting developments are happening right under our noses, I’ll be curious about what this new trend might mean for the world of Japanese theatre.
Also: Keep your eye out on Mata Hari and The Man Who Laughs - I suspect that at least one of them will get a proshot. I lean more towards Man than Mata, but both are strong candidates.