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Demian Panigo

National Scientific and Technical Research Council, Center of Workers Innovation (CITRA), Vice-Director

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I'm president of APEL (http://apel.la/) and vice-Director of the Center of Workers' Innovation - CONICET/UMET in Argentina (http://citra.org.ar/). I have a PhD in Economics (EHESS-Paris, France) and I'm also teaching advanced macroeconomics and development economics at four different Universities (UNLP, UNDAV, UNQ and UNM). Working on industrial economics over the last three years (more precisely, automotive industry), I'm moving now to innovate on HPC in Econometrics.

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Sergio Rosanovich

Fernando M Garcia Diaz

Universidad de Buenos Aires

Universidad de Buenos Aires

Werner Hernani-Limarino

Doetsk Christian University

Bernardo Mendez Lugo

fanny muñoz villalobos

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Papers by Demian Panigo

El impacto asimétrico de la aceleración inflacionaria en la Argentina (2015-2016)

El objetivo de la presente investigacion consiste en examinar el impacto distributivo del proceso... more El objetivo de la presente investigacion consiste en examinar el impacto distributivo del proceso inflacionario generado por el cambio de paradigma macroeconomico en la Argentina. Desde fines de septiembre de 2015 a febrero de 2016 se han combinado: 1) expectativas devaluatorias (que generaron remarcaciones incluso antes del cambio de regimen), 2) devaluacion efectiva de la moneda, 3) eliminacion o reduccion de derechos de exportacion (segun el producto), 4) liberacion de cupos de exportacion para ciertos bienes clave de la canasta basica (como la carne bovina), 5) desarticulacion de facto -aun manteniendo de juredel programa Precios Cuidados, y 6) aumento de tarifas de servicios publicos. Todo ello no solo ha generado una de las tasas de inflacion mas elevadas desde 2002 sino que tambien ha transformado sensiblemente la dinamica de los precios relativos, en desmedro del poder adquisitivo de la poblacion con menores recursos y con un impacto solo marginal sobre la capacidad de compr...

ParallelGSReg/GlobalSearchRegression.jl: v1.0.5

Julia's HPC command for automatic feature/model selection using all-subset-regression approaches

ROLLSTAT: Stata module to compute rolling-window statistics for time series or panel data

rollstat generates a variable named _`statistic´`w´_varname (i.e. _sd3_gdp for the 3 period stand... more

Despidos Masivos en Argentina: Caracterización De La Situacion y Análisis Del Impacto Sobre La Salud Física y Mental (2015-2016)

Desde fines de 2015 a noviembre de 2016, más de 230.000 trabajadores perdieron su empleo o fueron... more Desde fines de 2015 a noviembre de 2016, más de 230.000 trabajadores perdieron su empleo o fueron suspendidos en Argentina, generándose un intenso proceso recesivo y regresivo sólo comparable a lo acontecido en 1976 (en términos distributivos) y a lo observado entre 1998 y 2002 (en materia de destrucción masiva de puestos de trabajo). En este contexto particular, el objetivo de la presente investigación se dirige a: 1) caracterizar sectorial e institucionalmente dicha dinámica, combinando fuentes de información complementarias provenientes de cámaras empresariales, medios masivos de comunicación, registros administrativos oficiales y organizaciones sindicales; y 2) realizar una primera evaluación del impacto de este proceso sobre la salud física y mental de la población afectada, en base a más de 450 encuestas a trabajadores despedidos entre noviembre de 2015 y junio de 2016. Entre los principales resultados se destaca que de los 232.286 trabajadores despedidos o suspendidos en Argentina en los últimos 12 meses, el 70% corresponde al sector privado, provenientes principalmente de la construcción y la industria (y en ella, mayoritariamente de firmas metalmecánicas y textiles). Este acelerado proceso de destrucción masiva de puestos de trabajo, sin precedentes desde la crisis de la Convertibilidad, no sólo ha incrementado sensiblemente el desempleo, la pobreza y la desigualdad, sino que también ha derivado en un significativo deterioro de los indicadores de salud física y mental, principalmente entre mujeres de mediana edad, jefas de hogar y que están a cargo de familias numerosas. En estos sub-grupos poblacionales se observa, entre otros resultados, una caída de hasta el 46% de la autopercepción relativa al estado de salud física, un aumento de hasta el 436% de los problemas de salud mental, y la triplicación de personas que tienen fantasías de suicidio. La magnitud de estos efectos y la masividad del fenómeno examinado dan lugar a la emergencia de un severo problema epidemiológico con daños potencialmente irreversibles.

Estructura de Financiamiento de la Inversión en Empresas con Oferta Pública de Acciones. Argentina (1994-2004)

... de que el crédito comercial se haya convertido en el instrumento de financiación por excelenc... more

The Cost of Corporate Bond Financing in Latin America

... Ricardo Pasquini CEF Abstract ... Until 2001, the “big three” main rating agencies, Moody&amp... more ... Ricardo Pasquini CEF Abstract ... Until 2001, the “big three” main rating agencies, Moody&#x27;s Investors Service, Standard &amp; Poor&#x27;s, and Fitch Ratings –these latter two de facto-, followed their country or sovereign ceiling policy more or less strictly.15 They amended it, however, under ...

The cost of equity in Latin America

The aim of this paper is twofold. First, it applies standard Capi-tal Asset Pricing Models (CAPM)... more The aim of this paper is twofold. First, it applies standard Capi-tal Asset Pricing Models (CAPM) to look into cross-section (at the rm and industry levels) and time series di¤erences in the opportunity cost of equity (COE) across seven major Latin American countries. Using an unbalanced panel spanning monthly observations for about 921 publicly traded rms in 1986-2005, it comes up with more than 312,000 COE esti-mates from 6 di¤erent econometric (rolling GMM) specications. Second, the paper statistically tests the econometric output obtained from those CAPM-type models to nd out how well and how much systematic risk (the single determinant of COE in CAPM) accounts for both, cross-section and time series variations in COE. JEL codes: G12, G15.

Volatility, higher education and inequality in Latin America. Micro and macro evidence from Argentina and Brazil∗

The aim of this paper is to analyze the existing relationships be-tween real volatility and deman... more The aim of this paper is to analyze the existing relationships be-tween real volatility and demand for higher education in Latin Amer-ica. We use micro and macro panel data from Argentina and Brazil in order to identify the aggregate and idiosyncratic risk-channels af-fecting human capital accumulation. Confirming the mail hypothesis of our OLG stochastic model we find out that both, aggregate real volatility and family real income volatility (mainly head’s partner real income volatility) reduce demand for higher education. Moreover, this result is not homogeneous across different income levels. Only middle income families (and states) are negativelly affected by real volatil-ity variables entailing a positive correlation between macroeconomic uncertainty and higher education enrollment polarization.

“The Cost of Corporate Bond Financing in Latin America.”

Ésta deberá solicitarse al CEF o, en el caso de materiales de otras entidades (cuyos datos figura... more Ésta deberá solicitarse al CEF o, en el caso de materiales de otras entidades (cuyos datos figuran en nuestros trabajos), así como en el caso de publicaciones de otras editoriales, a la entidad, la persona o la editorial de que se trate. Está prohibido modificar el material cuyos derechos se reserva el CEF, con la obligación de citar la fuente. En caso de utilizar material del CEF se solicitará una muestra o ejemplar de prueba a fin de darle aprobación. Ante el incumplimiento el CEF se reserva el derecho correspondiente.

Une Approche Micro et Macroeconomique

The aim of this paper is to develop a simple methodology for the study of regional unemployment p... more The aim of this paper is to develop a simple methodology for the study of regional unemployment persistence in Argentina. We use two complementary perspectives, combining a macroeconomic (aggregate) hysteresis approach with a microeconomic dynamic (individual-two-stage) evaluation. Macroeconomic results indicate that most shocks affecting the unemployment rate in different regions and population sub-groups are predominantly persistent (because of both participation and employment hysteresis). The microeconomic analysis allows us to detect a strong state-dependence effect (for most regions and mainly amongst youth and females), while duration-dependence is only significant for periods of high unemployment.

El impacto de la volatilidad macroeconómica sobre la desigualdad en Argentina y América Latina

El principal objetivo de la obra no radica tanto en enfatizar la importancia de la volatilidad ma... more El principal objetivo de la obra no radica tanto en enfatizar la importancia de la volatilidad macroeconómica como determinante de la desigualdad en Argentina y América Latina, cuanto en la construcción de un esquema teórico alternativo, basado en el caso latinoamericano, en el cual la relación examinada [volatilidad-desigualdad] no se explique unívocamente por el supuesto de que toda sociedad está dispuesta a premiar a los “aventureros” por asumir la mayor parte del riesgo existente. En torno a este objetivo principal, se presenta a continuación un conjunto de objetivos específicos más concretos, asociados a las hipótesis de trabajo previamente mencionadas. 1.- Evaluar detalladamente el alcance y la dinámica de la desigualdad en Argentina y América Latina, identificar las causas y establecer cuáles de ellas se destacan en las investigaciones empíricas. 2.- Examinar cuál es el rol que se le otorga a la volatilidad macroeconómica como determinante de la distribución del ingreso en al...

La persistencia del desempleo en la Argentina: Análisis micro y macroeconómico de su incidencia regional

Fil: Feliz, Mariano. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Cientificas y Tecnicas. Centro Cientific... more Fil: Feliz, Mariano. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Cientificas y Tecnicas. Centro Cientifico Tecnologico Conicet - La Plata. Instituto de Investigaciones en Humanidades y Ciencias Sociales. Universidad Nacional de La Plata. Facultad de Humanidades y Ciencias de la Educacion. Instituto de Investigaciones en Humanidades y Ciencias Sociales; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Cientificas y Tecnicas. Oficina de Coordinacion Administrativa Saavedra 15. Centro de Estudios e Investigaciones Laborales; Argentina

No 0311 DOLLARIZATION AND REAL VOLATILITY

This study gives a non-traditional framework for the evaluation of the convenience of an asymmetr... more This study gives a non-traditional framework for the evaluation of the convenience of an asymmetric monetary association (such as dollarization), from the point of view of the country that gives up its monetary sovereignty. In the analytical part it is discussed the relationship between dollarization and real volatility in a new model where traditional OCA criterium supporting a positive GDP correlation between partners is neither a necessary nor sufficient condition to reduce output fluctuations (even when prices are sticky and factor mobility is weak). Finally, we show that empirical evidence is very weak in order to support the case for ”official dollarization” in Argentina DOLLARISAT ION E T VOLAT ILITE REELLE Diego Bastourre, Jorge Carrera, Mariano Féliz et Demian Panigo

Employment protection, job-tenure and short term mobility wage gains

This paper investigates theoretical and empirical links between jobtenure and short-term mobility... more This paper investigates theoretical and empirical links between jobtenure and short-term mobility wage gains. Standard theoretical approaches examining this subject (search theory, job-matching and on-the-job training models) predict a negative correlation between these variables. Furthermore, this result has been confirmed in different applied researches for US. However, European labour market institutions appear to be quite different from US ones, especially for employment protection and turnover costs. Taking this feature into account we develop a theoretical model, evaluated through analytical and simulation procedures, where optimal switching conditions determine a positive correlation between jobtenure and short-term mobility wage gains. The main proposition derived from our model is confirmed for the Italian case. Using a panel database and different econometric specifications -in order to control for individual observable and non-observable effects, firm attributes and endog...

How does dollarization affect real volatility and country risk

Economica, 2000

This study gives a non-traditional framework for the evaluation of an asymmetric monetary associa... more This study gives a non-traditional framework for the evaluation of an asymmetric monetary association (such as dollarization). We discuss the relationship between real volatility and country risk and determine the necessary conditions for dollarization to improve social welfare. We concentrate in two main aspects: 1) the degree of synchronization between the cycle of the leader and associated country, and 2) the effect and relative importance of the trade and financial channels. The cyclical correlation is calculated from different methodologies and the effect and size of the channels are extracted from the impulse-response functions and variance descompositions of a VEC Model. We apply our analytical framework to Argentina.

Contribuciones al estudio de la economía del trabajo y el empleo desde la teoría de la regulación: un marco teórico para estudiar los modos de desarrollo y su impacto sobre el empleo

Subestimación de importaciones de ropa en Argentina. Nueva metodología para estudios sectoriales

This paper proposes a new methodology to examine the role of foreign trade in sectoral studies, b... more This paper proposes a new methodology to examine the role of foreign trade in sectoral studies, based on a proper recalculation of the share of imports in clothing market and an estimate of its effects on national production through the chenery (1979) decomposition.Among main results obtained it is highlighted that: i) clothing imports from shopping tourism are even higher than those included in custom records; ii) thetrue import penetration in the clothing market doubles that reported in official figures and existing sectorial studies; iii) since 2015, the share of imports in this market accelerates, reaching the historical peak of 50,7% in 2018; and iv) the fall of national production (and employment) between late 2015 and 2018 is mostly explained (e.g. 66%) by the import growth dynamics.

Unit roots and cycles in the main macroeconomic variables for Argentina

In this paper we study the integration properties of some of the main macroeconomic series of Arg... more In this paper we study the integration properties of some of the main macroeconomic series of Argentina. We present a robust methodology for the analysis of persistence of shocks affecting macroeconomic series and its consequences on the modeling of the cyclical and permanent components. Our strategy consists on testing the stationarity of the series by using a sequence of indicators in such a way that we can analyze the problem from three converging points of view: Persistence of the series, Unit Root (UR) and UR with a Structural Breaks, thus reaching robust results regarding the integration properties of the main 14 Argentinean macroeconomic time series. We are able to classify them in four homogenous groups according to its order of integration. This allows us to determine the best strategy for modeling the cyclical component of each variable. For example, we found that the GDP can be robustly considered integrated of order one.

The Asymmetrical Impact of Restrictions to Financing in Argentina. Comparison by Sector, Size and Origin of Ownership (1995-2003)

This paper analyzes the evolution and differential scope of restrictions to financing for the com... more This paper analyzes the evolution and differential scope of restrictions to financing for the companies surveyed by the Large Companies Survey (ENGE) of the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) during the period 1995-2003. The main purpose of this study is to differentiate results not only according to the size of the company but also by activity sector and ownership. The study has shown, among other relevant findings, that the restriction to financing affected mainly smaller companies from the industrial sector and with majority of domestic shareholders. The financial structure of these companies presents a low level of leverage and exhibits a strong presence of financial liabilities, short-term debt, high implied interest rates, significant accumulation of liquid assets, an erratic or non-existing dividend policy and a sensitive proclivity to investment self-financing. In the other extreme, larger companies from the mining, extraction or service sectors (with a pred...

Unemployment persistence in Argentina. Micro and macroeconomic analysis of its regional incidence∗

The aim of this paper is to develop a simple methodology for the study of regional unemployment p... more The aim of this paper is to develop a simple methodology for the study of regional unemployment persistence in Argentina. We use two complementary perspectives, combining a macroeconomic (aggregate) hysteresis approach with a microeconomic dynamic (individual-two-stage) evaluation. Macroeconomic results indicate that most of the shocks affecting the unemployment rate in different regions and population sub-groups are predominantly persistent (because both participation and mainly employment hysteresis). On the other hand, the microeconomic analysis allow us to detect a strong state-dependence effect (for most regions and mainly for young people and women), while duration-dependece is only significative for high unemployment periods.

El impacto asimétrico de la aceleración inflacionaria en la Argentina (2015-2016)

El objetivo de la presente investigacion consiste en examinar el impacto distributivo del proceso... more El objetivo de la presente investigacion consiste en examinar el impacto distributivo del proceso inflacionario generado por el cambio de paradigma macroeconomico en la Argentina. Desde fines de septiembre de 2015 a febrero de 2016 se han combinado: 1) expectativas devaluatorias (que generaron remarcaciones incluso antes del cambio de regimen), 2) devaluacion efectiva de la moneda, 3) eliminacion o reduccion de derechos de exportacion (segun el producto), 4) liberacion de cupos de exportacion para ciertos bienes clave de la canasta basica (como la carne bovina), 5) desarticulacion de facto -aun manteniendo de juredel programa Precios Cuidados, y 6) aumento de tarifas de servicios publicos. Todo ello no solo ha generado una de las tasas de inflacion mas elevadas desde 2002 sino que tambien ha transformado sensiblemente la dinamica de los precios relativos, en desmedro del poder adquisitivo de la poblacion con menores recursos y con un impacto solo marginal sobre la capacidad de compr...

ParallelGSReg/GlobalSearchRegression.jl: v1.0.5

Julia's HPC command for automatic feature/model selection using all-subset-regression approaches

ROLLSTAT: Stata module to compute rolling-window statistics for time series or panel data

rollstat generates a variable named _`statistic´`w´_varname (i.e. _sd3_gdp for the 3 period stand... more

Despidos Masivos en Argentina: Caracterización De La Situacion y Análisis Del Impacto Sobre La Salud Física y Mental (2015-2016)

Desde fines de 2015 a noviembre de 2016, más de 230.000 trabajadores perdieron su empleo o fueron... more Desde fines de 2015 a noviembre de 2016, más de 230.000 trabajadores perdieron su empleo o fueron suspendidos en Argentina, generándose un intenso proceso recesivo y regresivo sólo comparable a lo acontecido en 1976 (en términos distributivos) y a lo observado entre 1998 y 2002 (en materia de destrucción masiva de puestos de trabajo). En este contexto particular, el objetivo de la presente investigación se dirige a: 1) caracterizar sectorial e institucionalmente dicha dinámica, combinando fuentes de información complementarias provenientes de cámaras empresariales, medios masivos de comunicación, registros administrativos oficiales y organizaciones sindicales; y 2) realizar una primera evaluación del impacto de este proceso sobre la salud física y mental de la población afectada, en base a más de 450 encuestas a trabajadores despedidos entre noviembre de 2015 y junio de 2016. Entre los principales resultados se destaca que de los 232.286 trabajadores despedidos o suspendidos en Argentina en los últimos 12 meses, el 70% corresponde al sector privado, provenientes principalmente de la construcción y la industria (y en ella, mayoritariamente de firmas metalmecánicas y textiles). Este acelerado proceso de destrucción masiva de puestos de trabajo, sin precedentes desde la crisis de la Convertibilidad, no sólo ha incrementado sensiblemente el desempleo, la pobreza y la desigualdad, sino que también ha derivado en un significativo deterioro de los indicadores de salud física y mental, principalmente entre mujeres de mediana edad, jefas de hogar y que están a cargo de familias numerosas. En estos sub-grupos poblacionales se observa, entre otros resultados, una caída de hasta el 46% de la autopercepción relativa al estado de salud física, un aumento de hasta el 436% de los problemas de salud mental, y la triplicación de personas que tienen fantasías de suicidio. La magnitud de estos efectos y la masividad del fenómeno examinado dan lugar a la emergencia de un severo problema epidemiológico con daños potencialmente irreversibles.

Estructura de Financiamiento de la Inversión en Empresas con Oferta Pública de Acciones. Argentina (1994-2004)

... de que el crédito comercial se haya convertido en el instrumento de financiación por excelenc... more

The Cost of Corporate Bond Financing in Latin America

... Ricardo Pasquini CEF Abstract ... Until 2001, the “big three” main rating agencies, Moody&amp... more ... Ricardo Pasquini CEF Abstract ... Until 2001, the “big three” main rating agencies, Moody&#x27;s Investors Service, Standard &amp; Poor&#x27;s, and Fitch Ratings –these latter two de facto-, followed their country or sovereign ceiling policy more or less strictly.15 They amended it, however, under ...

The cost of equity in Latin America

The aim of this paper is twofold. First, it applies standard Capi-tal Asset Pricing Models (CAPM)... more The aim of this paper is twofold. First, it applies standard Capi-tal Asset Pricing Models (CAPM) to look into cross-section (at the rm and industry levels) and time series di¤erences in the opportunity cost of equity (COE) across seven major Latin American countries. Using an unbalanced panel spanning monthly observations for about 921 publicly traded rms in 1986-2005, it comes up with more than 312,000 COE esti-mates from 6 di¤erent econometric (rolling GMM) specications. Second, the paper statistically tests the econometric output obtained from those CAPM-type models to nd out how well and how much systematic risk (the single determinant of COE in CAPM) accounts for both, cross-section and time series variations in COE. JEL codes: G12, G15.

Volatility, higher education and inequality in Latin America. Micro and macro evidence from Argentina and Brazil∗

The aim of this paper is to analyze the existing relationships be-tween real volatility and deman... more The aim of this paper is to analyze the existing relationships be-tween real volatility and demand for higher education in Latin Amer-ica. We use micro and macro panel data from Argentina and Brazil in order to identify the aggregate and idiosyncratic risk-channels af-fecting human capital accumulation. Confirming the mail hypothesis of our OLG stochastic model we find out that both, aggregate real volatility and family real income volatility (mainly head’s partner real income volatility) reduce demand for higher education. Moreover, this result is not homogeneous across different income levels. Only middle income families (and states) are negativelly affected by real volatil-ity variables entailing a positive correlation between macroeconomic uncertainty and higher education enrollment polarization.

“The Cost of Corporate Bond Financing in Latin America.”

Ésta deberá solicitarse al CEF o, en el caso de materiales de otras entidades (cuyos datos figura... more Ésta deberá solicitarse al CEF o, en el caso de materiales de otras entidades (cuyos datos figuran en nuestros trabajos), así como en el caso de publicaciones de otras editoriales, a la entidad, la persona o la editorial de que se trate. Está prohibido modificar el material cuyos derechos se reserva el CEF, con la obligación de citar la fuente. En caso de utilizar material del CEF se solicitará una muestra o ejemplar de prueba a fin de darle aprobación. Ante el incumplimiento el CEF se reserva el derecho correspondiente.

Une Approche Micro et Macroeconomique

The aim of this paper is to develop a simple methodology for the study of regional unemployment p... more The aim of this paper is to develop a simple methodology for the study of regional unemployment persistence in Argentina. We use two complementary perspectives, combining a macroeconomic (aggregate) hysteresis approach with a microeconomic dynamic (individual-two-stage) evaluation. Macroeconomic results indicate that most shocks affecting the unemployment rate in different regions and population sub-groups are predominantly persistent (because of both participation and employment hysteresis). The microeconomic analysis allows us to detect a strong state-dependence effect (for most regions and mainly amongst youth and females), while duration-dependence is only significant for periods of high unemployment.

El impacto de la volatilidad macroeconómica sobre la desigualdad en Argentina y América Latina

El principal objetivo de la obra no radica tanto en enfatizar la importancia de la volatilidad ma... more El principal objetivo de la obra no radica tanto en enfatizar la importancia de la volatilidad macroeconómica como determinante de la desigualdad en Argentina y América Latina, cuanto en la construcción de un esquema teórico alternativo, basado en el caso latinoamericano, en el cual la relación examinada [volatilidad-desigualdad] no se explique unívocamente por el supuesto de que toda sociedad está dispuesta a premiar a los “aventureros” por asumir la mayor parte del riesgo existente. En torno a este objetivo principal, se presenta a continuación un conjunto de objetivos específicos más concretos, asociados a las hipótesis de trabajo previamente mencionadas. 1.- Evaluar detalladamente el alcance y la dinámica de la desigualdad en Argentina y América Latina, identificar las causas y establecer cuáles de ellas se destacan en las investigaciones empíricas. 2.- Examinar cuál es el rol que se le otorga a la volatilidad macroeconómica como determinante de la distribución del ingreso en al...

La persistencia del desempleo en la Argentina: Análisis micro y macroeconómico de su incidencia regional

Fil: Feliz, Mariano. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Cientificas y Tecnicas. Centro Cientific... more Fil: Feliz, Mariano. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Cientificas y Tecnicas. Centro Cientifico Tecnologico Conicet - La Plata. Instituto de Investigaciones en Humanidades y Ciencias Sociales. Universidad Nacional de La Plata. Facultad de Humanidades y Ciencias de la Educacion. Instituto de Investigaciones en Humanidades y Ciencias Sociales; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Cientificas y Tecnicas. Oficina de Coordinacion Administrativa Saavedra 15. Centro de Estudios e Investigaciones Laborales; Argentina

No 0311 DOLLARIZATION AND REAL VOLATILITY

This study gives a non-traditional framework for the evaluation of the convenience of an asymmetr... more This study gives a non-traditional framework for the evaluation of the convenience of an asymmetric monetary association (such as dollarization), from the point of view of the country that gives up its monetary sovereignty. In the analytical part it is discussed the relationship between dollarization and real volatility in a new model where traditional OCA criterium supporting a positive GDP correlation between partners is neither a necessary nor sufficient condition to reduce output fluctuations (even when prices are sticky and factor mobility is weak). Finally, we show that empirical evidence is very weak in order to support the case for ”official dollarization” in Argentina DOLLARISAT ION E T VOLAT ILITE REELLE Diego Bastourre, Jorge Carrera, Mariano Féliz et Demian Panigo

Employment protection, job-tenure and short term mobility wage gains

This paper investigates theoretical and empirical links between jobtenure and short-term mobility... more This paper investigates theoretical and empirical links between jobtenure and short-term mobility wage gains. Standard theoretical approaches examining this subject (search theory, job-matching and on-the-job training models) predict a negative correlation between these variables. Furthermore, this result has been confirmed in different applied researches for US. However, European labour market institutions appear to be quite different from US ones, especially for employment protection and turnover costs. Taking this feature into account we develop a theoretical model, evaluated through analytical and simulation procedures, where optimal switching conditions determine a positive correlation between jobtenure and short-term mobility wage gains. The main proposition derived from our model is confirmed for the Italian case. Using a panel database and different econometric specifications -in order to control for individual observable and non-observable effects, firm attributes and endog...

How does dollarization affect real volatility and country risk

Economica, 2000

This study gives a non-traditional framework for the evaluation of an asymmetric monetary associa... more This study gives a non-traditional framework for the evaluation of an asymmetric monetary association (such as dollarization). We discuss the relationship between real volatility and country risk and determine the necessary conditions for dollarization to improve social welfare. We concentrate in two main aspects: 1) the degree of synchronization between the cycle of the leader and associated country, and 2) the effect and relative importance of the trade and financial channels. The cyclical correlation is calculated from different methodologies and the effect and size of the channels are extracted from the impulse-response functions and variance descompositions of a VEC Model. We apply our analytical framework to Argentina.

Contribuciones al estudio de la economía del trabajo y el empleo desde la teoría de la regulación: un marco teórico para estudiar los modos de desarrollo y su impacto sobre el empleo

Subestimación de importaciones de ropa en Argentina. Nueva metodología para estudios sectoriales

This paper proposes a new methodology to examine the role of foreign trade in sectoral studies, b... more This paper proposes a new methodology to examine the role of foreign trade in sectoral studies, based on a proper recalculation of the share of imports in clothing market and an estimate of its effects on national production through the chenery (1979) decomposition.Among main results obtained it is highlighted that: i) clothing imports from shopping tourism are even higher than those included in custom records; ii) thetrue import penetration in the clothing market doubles that reported in official figures and existing sectorial studies; iii) since 2015, the share of imports in this market accelerates, reaching the historical peak of 50,7% in 2018; and iv) the fall of national production (and employment) between late 2015 and 2018 is mostly explained (e.g. 66%) by the import growth dynamics.

Unit roots and cycles in the main macroeconomic variables for Argentina

In this paper we study the integration properties of some of the main macroeconomic series of Arg... more In this paper we study the integration properties of some of the main macroeconomic series of Argentina. We present a robust methodology for the analysis of persistence of shocks affecting macroeconomic series and its consequences on the modeling of the cyclical and permanent components. Our strategy consists on testing the stationarity of the series by using a sequence of indicators in such a way that we can analyze the problem from three converging points of view: Persistence of the series, Unit Root (UR) and UR with a Structural Breaks, thus reaching robust results regarding the integration properties of the main 14 Argentinean macroeconomic time series. We are able to classify them in four homogenous groups according to its order of integration. This allows us to determine the best strategy for modeling the cyclical component of each variable. For example, we found that the GDP can be robustly considered integrated of order one.

The Asymmetrical Impact of Restrictions to Financing in Argentina. Comparison by Sector, Size and Origin of Ownership (1995-2003)

This paper analyzes the evolution and differential scope of restrictions to financing for the com... more This paper analyzes the evolution and differential scope of restrictions to financing for the companies surveyed by the Large Companies Survey (ENGE) of the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) during the period 1995-2003. The main purpose of this study is to differentiate results not only according to the size of the company but also by activity sector and ownership. The study has shown, among other relevant findings, that the restriction to financing affected mainly smaller companies from the industrial sector and with majority of domestic shareholders. The financial structure of these companies presents a low level of leverage and exhibits a strong presence of financial liabilities, short-term debt, high implied interest rates, significant accumulation of liquid assets, an erratic or non-existing dividend policy and a sensitive proclivity to investment self-financing. In the other extreme, larger companies from the mining, extraction or service sectors (with a pred...

Unemployment persistence in Argentina. Micro and macroeconomic analysis of its regional incidence∗

The aim of this paper is to develop a simple methodology for the study of regional unemployment p... more The aim of this paper is to develop a simple methodology for the study of regional unemployment persistence in Argentina. We use two complementary perspectives, combining a macroeconomic (aggregate) hysteresis approach with a microeconomic dynamic (individual-two-stage) evaluation. Macroeconomic results indicate that most of the shocks affecting the unemployment rate in different regions and population sub-groups are predominantly persistent (because both participation and mainly employment hysteresis). On the other hand, the microeconomic analysis allow us to detect a strong state-dependence effect (for most regions and mainly for young people and women), while duration-dependece is only significative for high unemployment periods.

Impuestos al consumo y distorsión en la asignación de los factores productivos. Efectos sobre la tasa de desocupación

by Demian Panigo, Jorge Carrera, and Mariano Féliz