EJERCICIO 1

Paso 1, determinar el factor estacional Paso 4, proyectar la linea de regresión

Paso 2, desestacionalizar los datos originales
Paso 3, Desarrollar una linea de regresión
Demanda
Deviación
Promedio de Factor desestacio Pronóstico Error2
(Error)
MES Ventas ventas estacional nalizada tendencia Pronóstico final
1 2,170.0 2,233.3 0.0155 2,170.00 4,708,900.00
2 1,560.0 2,239.1 0.0155 1,560.00 2,433,600.00
3 2,100.0 2,307.0 0.0160 2,100.00 4,410,000.00
4 2,165.0 2,330.0 0.0162 2,165.00 4,687,225.00
5 2,480.0 2,350.6 0.0163 2,480.00 6,150,400.00
6 2,200.0 2,332.1 0.0162 2,200.00 4,840,000.00
7 2,190.0 2,354.2 0.0163 2,190.00 4,796,100.00
8 2,230.0 2,387.0 0.0166 2,230.00 4,972,900.00
9 2,110.0 2,426.3 0.0168 2,110.00 4,452,100.00
10 2,300.0 2,531.7 0.0176 2,300.00 5,290,000.00
11 2,195.0 2,647.5 0.0184 2,195.00 4,818,025.00
12 3,100.0 3,100.0 0.0215 3,100.00 9,610,000.00
13 2,600.0 2,260.8 0.0157 2,600.00 6,760,000.00
14 1,690.0 2,230.0 0.0155 1,690.00 2,856,100.00
15 2,480.0 2,284.0 0.0159 2,480.00 6,150,400.00
16 2,100.0 2,262.2 0.0157 2,100.00 4,410,000.00
17 2,180.0 2,282.5 0.0158 2,180.00 4,752,400.00
18 2,150.0 2,297.1 0.0159 2,150.00 4,622,500.00
19 2,180.0 2,321.7 0.0161 2,180.00 4,752,400.00
20 2,190.0 2,350.0 0.0163 2,190.00 4,796,100.00
21 2,280.0 2,390.0 0.0166 2,280.00 5,198,400.00
22 2,400.0 2,426.7 0.0168 2,400.00 5,760,000.00
23 2,380.0 2,440.0 0.0169 2,380.00 5,664,400.00
24 2,500.0 2,500.0 0.0174 2,500.00 6,250,000.00
25 2,000.0 2,124.2 0.0147 2,000.00 4,000,000.00
26 1,680.0 2,135.5 0.0148 1,680.00 2,822,400.00
27 1,900.0 2,181.0 0.0151 1,900.00 3,610,000.00
28 1,980.0 2,212.2 0.0154 1,980.00 3,920,400.00
29 2,000.0 2,241.3 0.0156 2,000.00 4,000,000.00
 30 2,100.0 2,275.7 0.0158 2,100.00 4,410,000.00
31 2,150.0 2,305.0 0.0160 2,150.00 4,622,500.00
32 2,200.0 2,336.0 0.0162 2,200.00 4,840,000.00
33 2,280.0 2,370.0 0.0165 2,280.00 5,198,400.00
34 2,350.0 2,400.0 0.0167 2,350.00 5,522,500.00
35 2,400.0 2,425.0 0.0168 2,400.00 5,760,000.00
36 2,450.0 2,450.0 0.0170 2,450.00 6,002,500.00
37 2,100.0 2,334.2 0.0162 2,100.00 4,410,000.00
38 2,000.0 2,355.5 0.0164 2,000.00 4,000,000.00
39 2,200.0 2,391.0 0.0166 2,200.00 4,840,000.00
40 2,250.0 2,412.2 0.0167 2,250.00 5,062,500.00
41 2,300.0 2,432.5 0.0169 2,300.00 5,290,000.00
42 2,280.0 2,451.4 0.0170 2,280.00 5,198,400.00
43 2,350.0 2,480.0 0.0172 2,350.00 5,522,500.00
44 2,380.0 2,506.0 0.0174 2,380.00 5,664,400.00
45 2,500.0 2,537.5 0.0176 2,500.00 6,250,000.00
46 2,550.0 2,550.0 0.0177 2,550.00 6,502,500.00
47 2,500.0 2,550.0 0.0177 2,500.00 6,250,000.00
n 48 2,600.0 2,600.0 0.0181 2,600.00 6,760,000.00
1 49 2,180.0 2,281.7 0.0158 2,180.00 4,752,400.00
2 50 1,980.0 2,290.9 0.0159 1,980.00 3,920,400.00
3 51 2,000.0 2,322.0 0.0161 2,000.00 4,000,000.00
4 52 2,180.0 2,357.8 0.0164 2,180.00 4,752,400.00
5 53 2,200.0 2,380.0 0.0165 2,200.00 4,840,000.00
6 54 2,250.0 2,405.7 0.0167 2,250.00 5,062,500.00
7 55 2,280.0 2,431.7 0.0169 2,280.00 5,198,400.00
8 56 2,300.0 2,462.0 0.0171 2,300.00 5,290,000.00
9 57 2,300.0 2,502.5 0.0174 2,300.00 5,290,000.00
10 58 2,350.0 2,570.0 0.0178 2,350.00 5,522,500.00
11 59 2,360.0 2,680.0 0.0186 2,360.00 5,569,600.00
12 60 3,000.0 3,000.0 0.0208 3,000.00 9,000,000.00
13 61 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522
14 62 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522
15 63 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522
16 64 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522
17 65 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522
18 66 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522
19 67 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522
20 68 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522
21 69 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522
22 70 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522
23 71 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522
24 72 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522
73 Err:522 Err:522
74 Err:522 ECM
DesvStand
75 Err:522
Semana Err:522
76 Err:522
Nivel
77 Err:522
confianza 95%
78 Err:522 Z 1.64
79 Err:522
80 Err:522
81 Err:522
82 Err:522
83 Err:522
84 Err:522
promedio
de ventas Err:522 144,024.12
Err:522
PROMEDIO DE VENTAS=∑VENTAS/n

PROMEDIO DE VENTAS POR ESTACION=∑VENTAS POR ESTACION/n

FACTOR ESTACIONAL = PROMEDIO DE VENTAS POR ESTACION/ PROMEDIO DE VENTAS

 Existencia
Sum of
SCEP Abs. Dev. DMA Señal de DMAP DMAP DMAP LS LI en reserva
Abs. Dev.
rastreo (ER)
2,170.00 2,170.00 2,170.00 2,170.00 1.00 100% 100% 100% 5 -5 Err:522
1,560.00 1,560.00 1,560.00 780.00 2.00 100% 100% 50% 5 -5 Err:522
2,100.00 2,100.00 2,100.00 700.00 3.00 100% 100% 33% 5 -5 Err:522
2,165.00 2,165.00 2,165.00 541.25 4.00 100% 100% 25% 5 -5 Err:522
2,480.00 2,480.00 2,480.00 496.00 5.00 100% 100% 20% 5 -5 Err:522
2,200.00 2,200.00 2,200.00 366.67 6.00 100% 100% 17% 5 -5 Err:522
2,190.00 2,190.00 2,190.00 312.86 7.00 100% 100% 14% 5 -5 Err:522
2,230.00 2,230.00 2,230.00 278.75 8.00 100% 100% 13% 5 -5 Err:522
2,110.00 2,110.00 2,110.00 234.44 9.00 100% 100% 11% 5 -5 Err:522
2,300.00 2,300.00 2,300.00 230.00 10.00 100% 100% 10% 5 -5 Err:522
2,195.00 2,195.00 2,195.00 199.55 11.00 100% 100% 9% 5 -5 Err:522
3,100.00 3,100.00 3,100.00 258.33 12.00 100% 100% 8% 5 -5 Err:522
2,600.00 2,600.00 2,600.00 200.00 13.00 100% 100% 8% 5 -5 Err:522
1,690.00 1,690.00 1,690.00 120.71 14.00 100% 100% 7% 5 -5 Err:522
2,480.00 2,480.00 2,480.00 165.33 15.00 100% 100% 7% 5 -5 Err:522
2,100.00 2,100.00 2,100.00 131.25 16.00 100% 100% 6% 5 -5 Err:522
2,180.00 2,180.00 2,180.00 128.24 17.00 100% 100% 6% 5 -5 Err:522
2,150.00 2,150.00 2,150.00 119.44 18.00 100% 100% 6% 5 -5 Err:522
2,180.00 2,180.00 2,180.00 114.74 19.00 100% 100% 5% 5 -5 Err:522
2,190.00 2,190.00 2,190.00 109.50 20.00 100% 100% 5% 5 -5 Err:522
2,280.00 2,280.00 2,280.00 108.57 21.00 100% 100% 5% 5 -5 Err:522
2,400.00 2,400.00 2,400.00 109.09 22.00 100% 100% 5% 5 -5 Err:522
2,380.00 2,380.00 2,380.00 103.48 23.00 100% 100% 4% 5 -5 Err:522
2,500.00 2,500.00 2,500.00 104.17 24.00 100% 100% 4% 5 -5 Err:522
2,000.00 2,000.00 2,000.00 80.00 25.00 100% 100% 4% 5 -5 Err:522
1,680.00 1,680.00 1,680.00 64.62 26.00 100% 100% 4% 5 -5 Err:522
1,900.00 1,900.00 1,900.00 70.37 27.00 100% 100% 4% 5 -5 Err:522
1,980.00 1,980.00 1,980.00 70.71 28.00 100% 100% 4% 5 -5 Err:522
2,000.00 2,000.00 2,000.00 68.97 29.00 100% 100% 3% 5 -5 Err:522
 2,100.00 2,100.00 2,100.00 70.00 30.00 100% 100% 3% 5 -5 Err:522
2,150.00 2,150.00 2,150.00 69.35 31.00 100% 100% 3% 5 -5 Err:522
2,200.00 2,200.00 2,200.00 68.75 32.00 100% 100% 3% 5 -5 Err:522
2,280.00 2,280.00 2,280.00 69.09 33.00 100% 100% 3% 5 -5 Err:522
2,350.00 2,350.00 2,350.00 69.12 34.00 100% 100% 3% 5 -5 Err:522
2,400.00 2,400.00 2,400.00 68.57 35.00 100% 100% 3% 5 -5 Err:522
2,450.00 2,450.00 2,450.00 68.06 36.00 100% 100% 3% 5 -5 Err:522
2,100.00 2,100.00 2,100.00 56.76 37.00 100% 100% 3% 5 -5 Err:522
2,000.00 2,000.00 2,000.00 52.63 38.00 100% 100% 3% 5 -5 Err:522
2,200.00 2,200.00 2,200.00 56.41 39.00 100% 100% 3% 5 -5 Err:522
2,250.00 2,250.00 2,250.00 56.25 40.00 100% 100% 3% 5 -5 Err:522
2,300.00 2,300.00 2,300.00 56.10 41.00 100% 100% 2% 5 -5 Err:522
2,280.00 2,280.00 2,280.00 54.29 42.00 100% 100% 2% 5 -5 Err:522
2,350.00 2,350.00 2,350.00 54.65 43.00 100% 100% 2% 5 -5 Err:522
2,380.00 2,380.00 2,380.00 54.09 44.00 100% 100% 2% 5 -5 Err:522
2,500.00 2,500.00 2,500.00 55.56 45.00 100% 100% 2% 5 -5 Err:522
2,550.00 2,550.00 2,550.00 55.43 46.00 100% 100% 2% 5 -5 Err:522
2,500.00 2,500.00 2,500.00 53.19 47.00 100% 100% 2% 5 -5 Err:522
2,600.00 2,600.00 2,600.00 54.17 48.00 100% 100% 2% 5 -5 Err:522
2,180.00 2,180.00 2,180.00 44.49 49.00 100.00% 100.00% 2% 5 -5 Err:522
4,160.00 1,980.00 4,160.00 83.20 50.00 100.00% 200.00% 4% 5 -5 Err:522
6,160.00 2,000.00 6,160.00 120.78 51.00 100.00% 300.00% 6% 5 -5 Err:522
8,340.00 2,180.00 8,340.00 160.38 52.00 100.00% 400.00% 8% 5 -5 Err:522
10,540.00 2,200.00 10,540.00 198.87 53.00 100.00% 500.00% 9% 5 -5 Err:522
12,790.00 2,250.00 12,790.00 236.85 54.00 100.00% 600.00% 11% 5 -5 Err:522
15,070.00 2,280.00 15,070.00 274.00 55.00 100.00% 700.00% 13% 5 -5 Err:522
17,370.00 2,300.00 17,370.00 310.18 56.00 100.00% 800.00% 14% 5 -5 Err:522
19,670.00 2,300.00 19,670.00 345.09 57.00 100.00% 900.00% 16% 5 -5 Err:522
22,020.00 2,350.00 22,020.00 379.66 58.00 100.00% 1000.00% 17% 5 -5 Err:522
24,380.00 2,360.00 24,380.00 413.22 59.00 100.00% 1100.00% 19% 5 -5 Err:522
27,380.00 3,000.00 27,380.00 456.33 60.00 100.00% 1200.00% 20% 5 -5 Err:522
Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 5 -5 Err:522
Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 5 -5 Err:522
Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 5 -5 Err:522
Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 5 -5 Err:522
Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 5 -5 Err:522
 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 5 -5 Err:522
Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 5 -5 Err:522
Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 5 -5 Err:522
Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 5 -5 Err:522
Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 5 -5 Err:522
Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 5 -5 Err:522
Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 5 -5 Err:522
Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522
SCEP DMA ST DMAP Err:522

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3500 Err:522
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3000

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1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83
Ventas Pronóstico final Pronóstico tendencia Demanda desestacionalizada
Ft + ER
1000

500

0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83
Ventas Pronóstico final Pronóstico tendencia Demanda desestacionalizada
Ft + ER
Ft + ER

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Crecimiento ventas
-39%
26%
3%
13%
-13%
0%
2%
-6%
8%
-5%
29%
-19%
-54%
32%
-18%
4%
-1%
1%
0%
4%
5%
-1%
5%
-25%
-19%
12%
4%
1%
5%
2%
2%
4%
3%
2%
2%
-17%
-5%
9%
2%
2%
-1%
3%
1%
5%
2%
-2%
4%
 -19%
-10%
1%
8%
1%
2%
1%
1%
0%
2%
0%
21%

-0.32%