Peer-Reviewed Articles & Book Chapters by Farid Guliyev
Nationalities Papers, 2024
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Global Social Policy, 2023
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Journal of Eurasian Studies, 2024
The clean energy transition has entered the policy discourse and government agenda of the Caspian... more The clean energy transition has entered the policy discourse and government agenda of the Caspian oil-producing countries of Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan. Both countries have set a target to increase the share of renewable energy sources (RES) in total energy production by 2030. This article presents a comparative analysis of Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan in their paths to a low-carbon sources of energy covering the status of RES, renewable energy targets, and the role of government policy schemes in promoting renewable energy (RE) deployment. The study shows that despite some commonalities in the initial conditions (such as Soviet-era legacies of fossil-fuel-based infrastructure, a high degree of dependence on oil and gas rents, and dominance of state-owned enterprises), Kazakhstan adopted a more targeted regulatory framework and more elaborate policy schemes with regards to renewables than Azerbaijan did. In the latter case, the introduction of relevant renewable legislation has been significantly delayed or implemented only partially. As a result, Kazakhstan has performed relatively more successfully on advancing non-conventional renewable energy targets: non-hydro renewable sources accounted for 3% of total electricity generated in Kazakhstan and made up only 1% of electricity produced in Azerbaijan (as of 2020). This article highlights the following factors that stand out in explaining these variable outcomes: the degree of economic liberalization, quality of governance of the oil and gas sector, regulatory frameworks, and policy support schemes.
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Public Responses to Fossil Fuel Export, 2022
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European Security, 2021
Even though the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) has performed mediatio... more Even though the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) has performed mediation efforts in Eurasian secessionist conflicts, its role has been neglected by mainstream international relations (IR) and conflict mediation literature. To fill in this gap, this article examines OSCE mediation strategies in two major secessionist conflicts: the Nagorno-Karabakh (NK) conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan and the conflict in Eastern Ukraine. Drawing on Zartman’s conceptual framework, this study posits that OSCE mediation strategies were constrained given its weak organisational capacity, lack of legal empowerment and adverse geopolitical environment. Due to these structural limitations, the OSCE can be said to have been more effective in containing conflict than contributing to conflict resolution. This article aims to contribute to conflict mediation research by highlighting the importance of context for understanding the role of international organisations (IOs) as mediators.
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Post-Communist Economies, 2021
While there is a growing body of research on the role of international organisations (IOs) in reg... more While there is a growing body of research on the role of international organisations (IOs) in regional security governance, relatively little attention has been paid to IO responses to the secessionist conflicts in Nagorno-Karabakh (NK), in Abkhazia/South Ossetia in Georgia as well as in Crimea/Eastern Ukraine. This article explores the differences between NATO’s and the CSTO’s responses to the three conflicts. Our findings demonstrate that NATO neglected the conflict in NK which stands in sharp contrast to its active responses to the outbreak of war in Georgia (2008) and Crimea/Eastern Ukraine (2014). The CSTO, however, has largely avoided any engagement in all three cases. Three factors were of crucial importance to explain this variation: the level of regional security institutionalisation, both IOs’ geostrategic threat perceptions as well as both IOs’ mutual perception, hence, their IO-IO (non)relationship.
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Energy Policy, 2020
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Current History, 2019
A recent oil boom enriched a small circle of oligarchs in Baku. Little has been invested in the h... more A recent oil boom enriched a small circle of oligarchs in Baku. Little has been invested in the human capital that will be needed to sustain the economy when the wells run dry.
The article discusses the consequences of Azerbaijan's missed opportunities to efficiently manage revenue and the economy during its oil boom. Topics discussed include the country's focus on non-tradeable construction and services industries at the expense of agricultural and export-oriented manufacturing sectors, the failure to invest on human capital and the government's crackdown on opposition parties. Also discussed are the distorted labor market and the personalization of power.
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Southeast European and Black Sea Studies, 2019
Why does ideology often fail to take hold in post-Soviet party politics where parties tend to be ... more Why does ideology often fail to take hold in post-Soviet party politics where parties tend to be personalistic, patronage-based and clientelistic rather than programmatic? Moving beyond conventional theories of social cleavage and patrimonial legacies, this paper offers an alternative explanation focusing on the structure of a country’s discursive space. Analysis of Azerbaijani political party manifestos shows that all political players – the ruling and pro-government parties and the opposition groups alike – actively prevent the emergence of ideological competition and debate. All parties are wedded to the same underlying ideology of nationalism and a shallow or nominal commitment to democracy. This situation perpetuates the status quo and breeds political apathy among younger people.
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The Affordances of Social Media for Opposition in Azerbaijan
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The concepts of personal rule, neopatrimonialism, sultanism and related conceptual labels have be... more The concepts of personal rule, neopatrimonialism, sultanism and related conceptual labels have been widely used in political research, yet remain inadequately conceptualized. To make it a useful analytical category for comparative research, this article clarifies the concept of personal rule, derives its minimal definition and shows its proper genus, state authority structure. A new typological framework is advanced as an improved conceptual scheme that is able to capture variation on two salient dimensions of contemporary regimes in the developing and postcommunist worlds, the extent of political competition and the type of state authority structure.
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The article delineates the major national, regional and international level stakeholders in the w... more The article delineates the major national, regional and international level stakeholders in the westward Trans-Caspian transportation of Kazakh oil, supplemented with a discussion of the prospect of expansion of the Trans-Caspian/South Caucasus corridor in light of the presumably harmful effect of the war between Russia and Georgia in August 2008. It demonstrates that while foreign companies have been backed by their respective governments, national firms have also enjoyed considerable state support, partly due to their close links to the interests of state elites in Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan. It appears that most companies along the shipping line either belong to the governments of Kazakhstan or Azerbaijan, directly or indirectly (through subsidiaries), or enjoy favoritism and a near monopoly in their markets (crony capitalism). Some of these firms are privately owned but registered in offshore tax havens, while some others have rather obscure ownership structures and corporate profiles. It suggests that cronyism and state capture comprise that politico-economic environment within which the future of Caspian transport systems will have to be decided.
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Policy Work by Farid Guliyev
Covid-19 Social Policy Response Series No.8, 2021
Azerbaijan’s social assistance and income support schemes adopted during the Covid-19 pandemic ne... more Azerbaijan’s social assistance and income support schemes adopted during the Covid-19 pandemic need to be seen within the context of the country’s existing social protection system and safety nets. While the existing system is operational and has the technical capacity to respond and deliver social policies, it has had two key shortcomings: (1) low benefit rates and (2) issues in coverage, notably the exclusion of informal employees and migrant workers. Left unaddressed ex ante, they caught the system off-guard ex post when the coronavirus pandemic broke out. As a result, although Covid-related social assistance measures (especially cash transfers) were implemented without delay and provided some immediate relief for vulnerable and affected social groups, they fell short of covering sizable sections of the population, namely informal workers and Azerbaijanis working in Russia. It is also doubtful that such assistance can improve future wellbeing of vulnerable groups, whose living standards are likely to worsen during and after the economic fallout from the pandemic.
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PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo No. 666, 2020
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PONARS Policy Memo 647, 2020
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PONARS Policy Memo 519, March 2018
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Peer-Reviewed Articles & Book Chapters by Farid Guliyev
The article discusses the consequences of Azerbaijan's missed opportunities to efficiently manage revenue and the economy during its oil boom. Topics discussed include the country's focus on non-tradeable construction and services industries at the expense of agricultural and export-oriented manufacturing sectors, the failure to invest on human capital and the government's crackdown on opposition parties. Also discussed are the distorted labor market and the personalization of power.
Policy Work by Farid Guliyev
The article discusses the consequences of Azerbaijan's missed opportunities to efficiently manage revenue and the economy during its oil boom. Topics discussed include the country's focus on non-tradeable construction and services industries at the expense of agricultural and export-oriented manufacturing sectors, the failure to invest on human capital and the government's crackdown on opposition parties. Also discussed are the distorted labor market and the personalization of power.