I am a truly independent researcher, writing at the website OurFiniteWorld.com. Most of my writing can be found there. I also write some peer reviewed papers.
We analyze an issue of prime importance for the future of China's economy. c The decline in coal ... more We analyze an issue of prime importance for the future of China's economy. c The decline in coal supply will present a challenge to China's economic growth. c Rising coal price will also have an adverse impact on economic growth.
Since 2005, (1) world oil supply has not increased, and (2) the world has undergone its most seve... more Since 2005, (1) world oil supply has not increased, and (2) the world has undergone its most severe economic crisis since the Depression. In this paper, logical arguments and direct evidence are presented suggesting that a reduction in oil supply can be expected to reduce the ability of economies to use debt for leverage. The expected impact of reduced oil supply combined with this reduced leverage is similar to the actual impact of the 2008-2009 recession in OECD countries. If world oil supply should continue to remain generally flat, there appears to be a significant possibility that oil consumption in OECD countries will continue to decline, as emerging markets consume a greater share of the total oil that is available. If this should happen, based on these findings we can expect a continuing financial crisis similar to the 2008-2009 recession including significant debt defaults. The financial crisis may eventually worsen, to resemble a collapse situation as described by Joseph Tainter in The Collapse of Complex Societies (1990) or an adverse decline situation similar to adverse scenarios foreseen by Donella Meadows in Limits to Growth (1972). Highlights ▶ Reduced oil consumption leads to lower economic growth and less capacity for debt. ▶ Lower capacity for debt leads to debt defaults, reduced credit, falling home prices. ▶ Oil supply limits appear to be a primary cause of the 2008-09 recession. ▶ If world oil supply remains level, more recession can be expected in OECD countries. ▶ Inadequate demand for high-priced oil is likely to cause much oil to be left in place.
La UNED en TVE-2 El Informe Brundtland, elaborado por una comision de expertos para las Naciones ... more La UNED en TVE-2 El Informe Brundtland, elaborado por una comision de expertos para las Naciones Unidas en 1987, utilizaba por primera vez el termino desarrollo sostenible. En un alarde retorico que hermanaba el respeto al medio ambiente con el crecimiento economico, la eficiencia tecnologica se presentaba como el deus ex machina ante cualquier eventualidad ambiental. En 1992, la Cumbre de la Tierra de Rio de Janeiro, daba un paso al frente en la lucha por la sostenibilidad, situando las coordenadas de un futuro comun, basado en las energias renovables y en el abandono de los combustibles fosiles. Desde entonces, muchas han sido las iniciativas planteadas por las instituciones internacionales, con el fin de poner freno a los efectos del cambio climatico. El impulso a las Energias Renovables de las ultimas decadas, ha llenado de optimismo el discurso de las cumbres de la Tierra, pero sin afianzar el camino hacia una transicion energetica efectiva, que solo parece viable, con la dismi...
La UNED en TVE-2 La abundancia o escasez de petroleo vienen generando indiscutibles relaciones de... more La UNED en TVE-2 La abundancia o escasez de petroleo vienen generando indiscutibles relaciones de poder entre los estados importadores y exportadores desde hace decadas. La perspectiva que pone bajo la luz el pico del petroleo impacta de bruces con la independencia energetica de las grandes potencias, cuestion vital para el mantenimiento de sus hegemonias. Si entendemos por gobernanza el modo de regulacion de las relaciones entre estado, sociedad, actores economicos y organismos internacionales, esta se ha visto seriamente transformada por los avatares petroleros. Un ejemplo de ello es la frecuente utilizacion de las rentas del petroleo para ejercer medidas de presion desde el exterior, pero tambien desde el interior, de determinados gobiernos incomodos. Por otro lado, el declive de las reservas de petroleo hace del gas el segundo recurso en liza y convierte la construccion de oleoductos y gaseoductos en objetivos estrategicos de todo petro-estado. En esto consiste, a grandes rasgos...
Motivation. To provide the ratemaking actuary with a description of typical medical malpractice t... more Motivation. To provide the ratemaking actuary with a description of typical medical malpractice tort reforms and issues involved in pricing these reforms. Method. The paper draws primarily on the author’s own experience with reform legislation. Results. Ten pitfalls in evaluating reforms are described. Conclusions. For educating non-actuaries, the most important is Pitfall #8, relating to the difference between indemnity savings and the expected change to current rates. Actuaries pricing malpractice tort reforms should be aware of the issues underlying all ten pitfalls. Some of these issues may also be relevant to pricing reforms for other lines of insurance. Availability. No additional material is available online.
Due to the expected importance of unconventional oil in China's domestic oil supply, this paper f... more Due to the expected importance of unconventional oil in China's domestic oil supply, this paper first investigates the four types of China's unconventional oil resources comprehensively: heavy and extra-heavy oil, oil sands, broad tight oil and kerogen oil. Our results show that OIP (Oil-in-Place) of these four types of resources amount to 19.64 Gt, 5.97 Gt, 25.74 Gt and 47.64 Gt respectively, while TRRs (technically recoverable resources) amount to 2.24 Gt, 2.26 Gt, 6.95 Gt and 11.98 Gt respectively. Next, the Geologic Resources Supply-Demand Model is used to quantitatively project the long-term production of unconventional oil under two resource scenarios (TRR scenario and Proved Reserve þ Cumulative Production scenario). Our results indicate that total unconventional oil production will peak in 2068 at 0.351 Gt in TRR scenario, whereas peak year and peak production of PR (proved reserves) þ CP (Cumulative Production) scenario are 2023 and 0.048 Gt, significantly earlier and lower than those of TRR scenario. The implications of this growth in production of unconventional oil for China are also analyzed. The results show that if the TRR scenario can be achieved, it will increase total supply and improve oil security considerably. However, achieving the production in TRR scenario has many challenges, and even if it is achieved, China will still need to rely on imported oil.
In recent years, it has become apparent that oil prices may not rise endlessly. Unconventional oi... more In recent years, it has become apparent that oil prices may not rise endlessly. Unconventional oil is likely to be especially affected by low prices because it tends to be high-priced to extract. To estimate the impact prices might have on future Chinese oil production, we develop a model in which only future unconventional oil production is affected by price. We analyze three price scenarios: Stays Low, Best Estimate, and Ever-Rising Prices. In these scenarios, remaining Ultimate Recoverable Resources (URR) are estimated to be 10%, 50%, and 90% of remaining Technically Recoverable Resources, respectively. Since oil price can be expected to affect the shape of the extraction curve, we spread estimated URR to year using models that do not assume that future production will ultimately produce a symmetric Hubbert-type curve (Multi-Cycle Generalized Weng Model and Stochastic Resource-Constrained Growth Model). In the Best Estimate Scenario, China's oil production is expected to reach a maximum of 226.79 million tons in 2020. In the Ever-Rising Prices Scenario, China's maximum oil production occurs in 2023. In the Stays Low Scenario, maximum production has already been reached.
______________________________________________________________________________________ Abstract U... more ______________________________________________________________________________________ Abstract Using the principles of Biophysical Economics, together with the issue of resource constraints that the world is already facing (particularly with respect to oil), we show that the financial crisis that affected many industries in the 2008 -2009 period, including the property-casualty insurance industry, was not a one-off event. Instead, the financial crisis was closely tied to inadequate growth in world oil supplies, leading to higher prices of crude oil, which in turn affected credit markets, creating recessionary impacts. If the growth in world oil supplies continues to be constrained, this analysis indicates that the recently-experienced financial crisis can be expected to be repeated, and get worse, resulting in impacts affecting many of the same lines of insurance as those affected during the 2008-2009 crisis. As the restriction in oil supply becomes greater, we show bond default ra...
Due to the expected importance of unconventional oil in China's domestic oil supply, this paper f... more Due to the expected importance of unconventional oil in China's domestic oil supply, this paper first investigates the four types of China's unconventional oil resources comprehensively: heavy and extraheavy oil, oil sands, broad tight oil and kerogen oil. Our results show that OIP (Oil-in-Place) of these four types of resources amount to 19.64 Gt, 5.97 Gt, 25.74 Gt and 47.64 Gt respectively, while TRRs (technically recoverable resources) amount to 2.24 Gt, 2.26 Gt, 6.95 Gt and 11.98 Gt respectively. Next, the Geologic Resources Supply-Demand Model is used to quantitatively project the long-term production of unconventional oil under two resource scenarios (TRR scenario and Proved Reserve þ Cumulative Production scenario). Our results indicate that total unconventional oil production will peak in 2068 at 0.351 Gt in TRR scenario, whereas peak year and peak production of PR (proved reserves) þ CP (Cumulative Production) scenario are 2023 and 0.048 Gt, significantly earlier and lower than those of TRR scenario. The implications of this growth in production of unconventional oil for China are also analyzed. The results show that if the TRR scenario can be achieved, it will increase total supply and improve oil security considerably. However, achieving the production in TRR scenario has many challenges, and even if it is achieved, China will still need to rely on imported oil.
Evidence is provided that financial issues can be expected to play a major role in future energy ... more Evidence is provided that financial issues can be expected to play a major role in future energy security. One issue is that high energy prices themselves appear to cause recession for oil importers. Another issue is that countries facing debt default and possible bankruptcy are likely to have difficulty paying for energy imports of all kinds. Subsidies are likely to be a problem in countries with financial issues—buyers will demand subsidies because they cannot afford high priced energy, but energy importers will be increasingly unable to afford to offer such subsidies, as their own financial situation deteriorates. Businesses such as refineries may go bankrupt because customers cannot afford the high price of gasoline, depressing refinery profit margins. Governments in financial difficulty may find themselves short of funds for such tasks as reconnection of electricity after storms. If many people are unemployed because of recession, there may be problems with individuals stealing copper wiring or electricity itself. Maintaining a proper environment for nuclear plants may become an issue, if energy is intermittent and civil disruption is more of a problem. Oil exporters may encounter difficulties as well, if financial issues lead to a cutback in funding for social programs, leading to civil unrest.
c We analyze an issue of prime importance for the future of China's economy. c The decline in coa... more c We analyze an issue of prime importance for the future of China's economy. c The decline in coal supply will present a challenge to China's economic growth. c Rising coal price will also have an adverse impact on economic growth.
We analyze an issue of prime importance for the future of China's economy. c The decline in coal ... more We analyze an issue of prime importance for the future of China's economy. c The decline in coal supply will present a challenge to China's economic growth. c Rising coal price will also have an adverse impact on economic growth.
Since 2005, (1) world oil supply has not increased, and (2) the world has undergone its most seve... more Since 2005, (1) world oil supply has not increased, and (2) the world has undergone its most severe economic crisis since the Depression. In this paper, logical arguments and direct evidence are presented suggesting that a reduction in oil supply can be expected to reduce the ability of economies to use debt for leverage. The expected impact of reduced oil supply combined with this reduced leverage is similar to the actual impact of the 2008-2009 recession in OECD countries. If world oil supply should continue to remain generally flat, there appears to be a significant possibility that oil consumption in OECD countries will continue to decline, as emerging markets consume a greater share of the total oil that is available. If this should happen, based on these findings we can expect a continuing financial crisis similar to the 2008-2009 recession including significant debt defaults. The financial crisis may eventually worsen, to resemble a collapse situation as described by Joseph Tainter in The Collapse of Complex Societies (1990) or an adverse decline situation similar to adverse scenarios foreseen by Donella Meadows in Limits to Growth (1972). Highlights ▶ Reduced oil consumption leads to lower economic growth and less capacity for debt. ▶ Lower capacity for debt leads to debt defaults, reduced credit, falling home prices. ▶ Oil supply limits appear to be a primary cause of the 2008-09 recession. ▶ If world oil supply remains level, more recession can be expected in OECD countries. ▶ Inadequate demand for high-priced oil is likely to cause much oil to be left in place.
La UNED en TVE-2 El Informe Brundtland, elaborado por una comision de expertos para las Naciones ... more La UNED en TVE-2 El Informe Brundtland, elaborado por una comision de expertos para las Naciones Unidas en 1987, utilizaba por primera vez el termino desarrollo sostenible. En un alarde retorico que hermanaba el respeto al medio ambiente con el crecimiento economico, la eficiencia tecnologica se presentaba como el deus ex machina ante cualquier eventualidad ambiental. En 1992, la Cumbre de la Tierra de Rio de Janeiro, daba un paso al frente en la lucha por la sostenibilidad, situando las coordenadas de un futuro comun, basado en las energias renovables y en el abandono de los combustibles fosiles. Desde entonces, muchas han sido las iniciativas planteadas por las instituciones internacionales, con el fin de poner freno a los efectos del cambio climatico. El impulso a las Energias Renovables de las ultimas decadas, ha llenado de optimismo el discurso de las cumbres de la Tierra, pero sin afianzar el camino hacia una transicion energetica efectiva, que solo parece viable, con la dismi...
La UNED en TVE-2 La abundancia o escasez de petroleo vienen generando indiscutibles relaciones de... more La UNED en TVE-2 La abundancia o escasez de petroleo vienen generando indiscutibles relaciones de poder entre los estados importadores y exportadores desde hace decadas. La perspectiva que pone bajo la luz el pico del petroleo impacta de bruces con la independencia energetica de las grandes potencias, cuestion vital para el mantenimiento de sus hegemonias. Si entendemos por gobernanza el modo de regulacion de las relaciones entre estado, sociedad, actores economicos y organismos internacionales, esta se ha visto seriamente transformada por los avatares petroleros. Un ejemplo de ello es la frecuente utilizacion de las rentas del petroleo para ejercer medidas de presion desde el exterior, pero tambien desde el interior, de determinados gobiernos incomodos. Por otro lado, el declive de las reservas de petroleo hace del gas el segundo recurso en liza y convierte la construccion de oleoductos y gaseoductos en objetivos estrategicos de todo petro-estado. En esto consiste, a grandes rasgos...
Motivation. To provide the ratemaking actuary with a description of typical medical malpractice t... more Motivation. To provide the ratemaking actuary with a description of typical medical malpractice tort reforms and issues involved in pricing these reforms. Method. The paper draws primarily on the author’s own experience with reform legislation. Results. Ten pitfalls in evaluating reforms are described. Conclusions. For educating non-actuaries, the most important is Pitfall #8, relating to the difference between indemnity savings and the expected change to current rates. Actuaries pricing malpractice tort reforms should be aware of the issues underlying all ten pitfalls. Some of these issues may also be relevant to pricing reforms for other lines of insurance. Availability. No additional material is available online.
Due to the expected importance of unconventional oil in China's domestic oil supply, this paper f... more Due to the expected importance of unconventional oil in China's domestic oil supply, this paper first investigates the four types of China's unconventional oil resources comprehensively: heavy and extra-heavy oil, oil sands, broad tight oil and kerogen oil. Our results show that OIP (Oil-in-Place) of these four types of resources amount to 19.64 Gt, 5.97 Gt, 25.74 Gt and 47.64 Gt respectively, while TRRs (technically recoverable resources) amount to 2.24 Gt, 2.26 Gt, 6.95 Gt and 11.98 Gt respectively. Next, the Geologic Resources Supply-Demand Model is used to quantitatively project the long-term production of unconventional oil under two resource scenarios (TRR scenario and Proved Reserve þ Cumulative Production scenario). Our results indicate that total unconventional oil production will peak in 2068 at 0.351 Gt in TRR scenario, whereas peak year and peak production of PR (proved reserves) þ CP (Cumulative Production) scenario are 2023 and 0.048 Gt, significantly earlier and lower than those of TRR scenario. The implications of this growth in production of unconventional oil for China are also analyzed. The results show that if the TRR scenario can be achieved, it will increase total supply and improve oil security considerably. However, achieving the production in TRR scenario has many challenges, and even if it is achieved, China will still need to rely on imported oil.
In recent years, it has become apparent that oil prices may not rise endlessly. Unconventional oi... more In recent years, it has become apparent that oil prices may not rise endlessly. Unconventional oil is likely to be especially affected by low prices because it tends to be high-priced to extract. To estimate the impact prices might have on future Chinese oil production, we develop a model in which only future unconventional oil production is affected by price. We analyze three price scenarios: Stays Low, Best Estimate, and Ever-Rising Prices. In these scenarios, remaining Ultimate Recoverable Resources (URR) are estimated to be 10%, 50%, and 90% of remaining Technically Recoverable Resources, respectively. Since oil price can be expected to affect the shape of the extraction curve, we spread estimated URR to year using models that do not assume that future production will ultimately produce a symmetric Hubbert-type curve (Multi-Cycle Generalized Weng Model and Stochastic Resource-Constrained Growth Model). In the Best Estimate Scenario, China's oil production is expected to reach a maximum of 226.79 million tons in 2020. In the Ever-Rising Prices Scenario, China's maximum oil production occurs in 2023. In the Stays Low Scenario, maximum production has already been reached.
______________________________________________________________________________________ Abstract U... more ______________________________________________________________________________________ Abstract Using the principles of Biophysical Economics, together with the issue of resource constraints that the world is already facing (particularly with respect to oil), we show that the financial crisis that affected many industries in the 2008 -2009 period, including the property-casualty insurance industry, was not a one-off event. Instead, the financial crisis was closely tied to inadequate growth in world oil supplies, leading to higher prices of crude oil, which in turn affected credit markets, creating recessionary impacts. If the growth in world oil supplies continues to be constrained, this analysis indicates that the recently-experienced financial crisis can be expected to be repeated, and get worse, resulting in impacts affecting many of the same lines of insurance as those affected during the 2008-2009 crisis. As the restriction in oil supply becomes greater, we show bond default ra...
Due to the expected importance of unconventional oil in China's domestic oil supply, this paper f... more Due to the expected importance of unconventional oil in China's domestic oil supply, this paper first investigates the four types of China's unconventional oil resources comprehensively: heavy and extraheavy oil, oil sands, broad tight oil and kerogen oil. Our results show that OIP (Oil-in-Place) of these four types of resources amount to 19.64 Gt, 5.97 Gt, 25.74 Gt and 47.64 Gt respectively, while TRRs (technically recoverable resources) amount to 2.24 Gt, 2.26 Gt, 6.95 Gt and 11.98 Gt respectively. Next, the Geologic Resources Supply-Demand Model is used to quantitatively project the long-term production of unconventional oil under two resource scenarios (TRR scenario and Proved Reserve þ Cumulative Production scenario). Our results indicate that total unconventional oil production will peak in 2068 at 0.351 Gt in TRR scenario, whereas peak year and peak production of PR (proved reserves) þ CP (Cumulative Production) scenario are 2023 and 0.048 Gt, significantly earlier and lower than those of TRR scenario. The implications of this growth in production of unconventional oil for China are also analyzed. The results show that if the TRR scenario can be achieved, it will increase total supply and improve oil security considerably. However, achieving the production in TRR scenario has many challenges, and even if it is achieved, China will still need to rely on imported oil.
Evidence is provided that financial issues can be expected to play a major role in future energy ... more Evidence is provided that financial issues can be expected to play a major role in future energy security. One issue is that high energy prices themselves appear to cause recession for oil importers. Another issue is that countries facing debt default and possible bankruptcy are likely to have difficulty paying for energy imports of all kinds. Subsidies are likely to be a problem in countries with financial issues—buyers will demand subsidies because they cannot afford high priced energy, but energy importers will be increasingly unable to afford to offer such subsidies, as their own financial situation deteriorates. Businesses such as refineries may go bankrupt because customers cannot afford the high price of gasoline, depressing refinery profit margins. Governments in financial difficulty may find themselves short of funds for such tasks as reconnection of electricity after storms. If many people are unemployed because of recession, there may be problems with individuals stealing copper wiring or electricity itself. Maintaining a proper environment for nuclear plants may become an issue, if energy is intermittent and civil disruption is more of a problem. Oil exporters may encounter difficulties as well, if financial issues lead to a cutback in funding for social programs, leading to civil unrest.
c We analyze an issue of prime importance for the future of China's economy. c The decline in coa... more c We analyze an issue of prime importance for the future of China's economy. c The decline in coal supply will present a challenge to China's economic growth. c Rising coal price will also have an adverse impact on economic growth.
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Papers by Gail Tverberg