Social unrest may reflect a variety of factors such as poverty, unemployment, and social injustice... more Social unrest may reflect a variety of factors such as poverty, unemployment, and social injustice. Despite the many possible contributing factors, the timing of violent protests in North Africa and the Middle East in 2011 as well as earlier riots in 2008 coincides with large peaks in global food prices. We identify a specific food price threshold above which protests become likely. These bservations suggest that protests may reflect not only long-standing political failings of governments, but also the sudden desperate straits of vulnerable populations. If food prices remain high, there is likely to be persistent and increasing global social disruption. Underlying the food price peaks we also find an ongoing trend of increasing prices. We extrapolate these trends and identify a crossing point to the domain of high impacts, even without price peaks, in 2012-2013. This implies that avoiding global food crises and associated social unrest requires rapid and concerted action.
Recent increases in basic food prices are severely impacting vulnerable populations worldwide. Pr... more Recent increases in basic food prices are severely impacting vulnerable populations worldwide. Proposed causes such as shortages of grain due to adverse weather, increasing meat consumption in China and India, conversion of corn to ethanol in the US, and investor speculation on commodity markets lead to widely differing implications for policy. A lack of clarity about which factors are responsible reinforces policy inaction. Here, for the first time, we construct a dynamic model that quantitatively agrees with food prices. The results show that the dominant causes of price increases are investor speculation and ethanol conversion. Models that just treat supply and demand are not consistent with the actual price dynamics. The two sharp peaks in 2007/2008 and 2010/2011 are specifically due to investor speculation, while an underlying trend is due to increasing demand from ethanol conversion. The model includes investor trend-following as well as shifting between commodities, equities and bonds to take advantage of increased expected returns. Claims that speculators cannot influence grain prices are shown to be invalid by direct analysis of price setting practices of granaries. Both causes of price increase, speculative investment and ethanol conversion, are promoted by recent regulatory changes—deregulation of the commodity markets, and policies promoting the conversion of corn to ethanol. Rapid action is needed to reduce the impacts of the price increases on global hunger. very difficult because of the substantial vested interests now represented in both arenas."
High and volatile global food prices have led to food riots and played a critical role in trigger... more High and volatile global food prices have led to food riots and played a critical role in triggering the Arab Spring revolutions in recent years. The severe drought in the US in the summer of 2012 led to a new increase in food prices. Through the fall, they remained at a threshold above which the riots and revolutions had predominantly occurred. Global prices at this level create conditions where an exacerbating local circumstance can trigger unrest. Global corn (maize) prices reached new highs, and countries that depend mostly on maize are more likely to experience high local food prices and associated pressures toward social unrest. Here we analyze the conditions in South Africa, which is a heavily maize-dependent country. Coinciding with increased consumer food indices this summer, massive labor strikes in mining and agriculture have led to the greatest single incident of social violence since the fall of apartheid in 1994. Worker demands for dramatic pay increases reflect that their wages have not kept up with drastic increases in the prices of necessities, especially food. Without attention to the global food price situation, more incidents of food-based social instability are likely to arise. Other countries that have manifested food-related protests and riots in 2012 include Haiti and Argentina. Moreover, these cases of unrest are just the most visible symptom of widespread suffering of poor populations worldwide due to elevated food prices. Policy decisions that would directly impact food prices are decreasing the conversion of maize to ethanol in the US, and reimposing regulations on commodity futures markets to prevent excessive speculation, which we have shown causes bubbles and crashes in these markets. Absent such policy actions, governments and companies should track and mitigate the impact of high and volatile food prices on citizens and employees.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, Jan 10, 2015
Recent increases in basic food prices are severely affecting vulnerable populations worldwide. Pr... more Recent increases in basic food prices are severely affecting vulnerable populations worldwide. Proposed causes such as shortages of grain due to adverse weather, increasing meat consumption in China and India, conversion of corn to ethanol in the United States, and investor speculation on commodity markets lead to widely differing implications for policy. A lack of clarity about which factors are responsible reinforces policy inaction. Here, for the first time to our knowledge, we construct a dynamic model that quantitatively agrees with food prices. The results show that the dominant causes of price increases are investor speculation and ethanol conversion. Models that just treat supply and demand are not consistent with the actual price dynamics. The two sharp peaks in 2007/2008 and 2010/2011 are specifically due to investor speculation, whereas an underlying upward trend is due to increasing demand from ethanol conversion. The model includes investor trend following as well as sh...
Predicting panic is of critical importance in many areas of human and animal behavior, notably in... more Predicting panic is of critical importance in many areas of human and animal behavior, notably in the context of economics. The recent financial crisis is a case in point. Panic may be due to a specific external threat or self-generated nervousness. Here we show that the recent economic crisis and earlier large single-day panics were preceded by extended periods of high levels of market mimicry-direct evidence of uncertainty and nervousness, and of the comparatively weak influence of external news. High levels of mimicry can be a quite general indicator of the potential for self-organized crises.
High and volatile global food prices have led to food riots and played a critical role in trigger... more High and volatile global food prices have led to food riots and played a critical role in triggering the Arab Spring revolutions in recent years. The severe drought in the US in the summer of 2012 led to a new increase in food prices. Through the fall, they remained at a threshold above which the riots and revolutions had predominantly occurred. Global prices at this level create conditions where an exacerbating local circumstance can trigger unrest. Global corn (maize) prices reached new highs, and countries that depend mostly on maize are more likely to experience high local food prices and associated pressures toward social unrest. Here we analyze the conditions in South Africa, which is a heavily maize-dependent country, and we find that consumer food indices have increased dramatically. Coinciding with the food price increases this summer, massive labor strikes in mining and agriculture have led to the greatest single incident of social violence since the fall of apartheid in 1994. Worker demands for dramatic pay increases reflect that their wages have not kept up with drastic increases in the prices of necessities, especially food. Without attention to the global food price situation, more incidents of food-based social instability are likely to arise.
In a recent quasi-elastic neutron scattering experiment on water confined in a Portland cement pa... more In a recent quasi-elastic neutron scattering experiment on water confined in a Portland cement paste, we find that this 3D confined water shows a dynamic crossover phenomenon at T L = 227 ± 5 K. The DSC heat-flow scan upon cooling and an independent measurement of specific heat at constant pressure of confined water in silica gel show a prominent peak at the same temperature. We show in this paper that this type of behavior is common to many other glassy liquids, which also show the crossover temperature in coincidence with the temperature of a small specific heat peak. We also demonstrate with MD simulations that the dynamic crossover phenomenon in confined water is an intrinsic property of bulk water, and is not due to the confinement effect. Recently, an extended version of the mode coupling theory (MCT) including the hopping effect was developed. This theory shows that, instead of a structural arrest transition at T C predicted by the idealized MCT, a fragile-to-strong dynamic crossover phenomenon takes place instead at T C , confirming both the experimental and the numerical results. The coherent and incoherent α relaxation times can be scaled with the calculated viscosity, showing the same crossover phenomenon. We thus demonstrated with experiments, simulations and theory that a genuine change of dynamical behavior of both water and many glassy liquids happens at the crossover temperature T L , which is 10-30% higher than the calorimetric glass transition temperature T g .
Abstract. We have observed a Fragile-to-Strong Dynamic Crossover (FSC) phenomenon of the α-relaxa... more Abstract. We have observed a Fragile-to-Strong Dynamic Crossover (FSC) phenomenon of the α-relaxation time and self-diffusion constant in hydration water of three biopolymers: lysozyme, B-DNA and RNA. The mean squared displacement (MSD) of hydrogen atoms is measured by Elastic Neutron Scattering (ENS) experiments. The α-relaxation time is measured by Quasi-Elastic Neutron Scattering (QENS) experiments and the self-diffusion constant by Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (NMR) experiments. We discuss the active role ...
DNA nanoconstructs are obtained in solution by using six unique 42-mer DNA oligonucleotides, whos... more DNA nanoconstructs are obtained in solution by using six unique 42-mer DNA oligonucleotides, whose sequences have been designed to form a pseudohexagonal structure. The required flexibility is provided by the insertion of two non-base-paired thymines in the middle of each sequence that work as flexible hinges and constitute the corners of the nanostructure when formed. We show that hexagonally shaped nanostructures of about 7 nm diameter and their corresponding linear open constructs are formed by self-assembly of the specifically designed linear oligonucleotides. The structural and dynamical characterization of the nanostructure is obtained in situ for the first time by using dynamic light scattering (DLS), a noninvasive method that provides a fast dynamic and structural analysis and allows the characterization of the different synthetic DNA nanoconstructs in solution. A validation of the LS results is obtained through Monte Carlo (MC) simulations and atomic force microscopy (AFM). In particular, a mesoscale molecular model for DNA, developed by Knotts et al., is exploited to perform MC simulations and to obtain information about the conformations as well as the conformational flexibilities of these nanostructures, while AFM provides a very detailed particle analysis that yields an estimation of the particle size and size distribution. The structural features obtained by MC and AFM are in good agreement with DLS, showing that DLS is a fast and reliable tool for characterization of DNA nanostructures in solution.
Aqueous dispersions of the phospholipid dioctanoylphosphatidylcholine (diC 8 PC) phase-separate b... more Aqueous dispersions of the phospholipid dioctanoylphosphatidylcholine (diC 8 PC) phase-separate below a cloud-point temperature, depending on lipid concentration. The lower phase is viscous and rich in lipid. The structure and dynamics of this system were explored via cryo-transmission electron microscopy (cryo-TEM), small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS), and NMR. The lower phase comprises a highly interconnected tridimensional network of wormlike micelles. A molecular mechanism for the phase separation is suggested.
Abstract: Increases in global food prices have led to widespread hunger and social unrest---and a... more Abstract: Increases in global food prices have led to widespread hunger and social unrest---and an imperative to understand their causes. In a previous paper published in September 2011, we constructed for the first time a dynamic model that quantitatively agreed with food prices. Specifically, the model fit the FAO Food Price Index time series from January 2004 to March 2011, inclusive. The results showed that the dominant causes of price increases during this period were investor speculation and ethanol conversion.
Abstract: During the last two years, Europe has been facing a debt crisis, and Greece has been at... more Abstract: During the last two years, Europe has been facing a debt crisis, and Greece has been at its center. In response to the crisis, drastic actions have been taken, including the halving of Greek debt. Policy makers acted because interest rates for sovereign debt increased dramatically. High interest rates imply that default is likely due to economic conditions. High interest rates also increase the cost of borrowing and thus cause default to be likely.
Abstract: Recent droughts in the midwestern United States threaten to cause global catastrophe dr... more Abstract: Recent droughts in the midwestern United States threaten to cause global catastrophe driven by a speculator amplified food price bubble. Here we show the effect of speculators on food prices using a validated quantitative model that accurately describes historical food prices. During the last six years, high and fluctuating food prices have lead to widespread hunger and social unrest.
Social unrest may reflect a variety of factors such as poverty, unemployment, and social injustice... more Social unrest may reflect a variety of factors such as poverty, unemployment, and social injustice. Despite the many possible contributing factors, the timing of violent protests in North Africa and the Middle East in 2011 as well as earlier riots in 2008 coincides with large peaks in global food prices. We identify a specific food price threshold above which protests become likely. These bservations suggest that protests may reflect not only long-standing political failings of governments, but also the sudden desperate straits of vulnerable populations. If food prices remain high, there is likely to be persistent and increasing global social disruption. Underlying the food price peaks we also find an ongoing trend of increasing prices. We extrapolate these trends and identify a crossing point to the domain of high impacts, even without price peaks, in 2012-2013. This implies that avoiding global food crises and associated social unrest requires rapid and concerted action.
Recent increases in basic food prices are severely impacting vulnerable populations worldwide. Pr... more Recent increases in basic food prices are severely impacting vulnerable populations worldwide. Proposed causes such as shortages of grain due to adverse weather, increasing meat consumption in China and India, conversion of corn to ethanol in the US, and investor speculation on commodity markets lead to widely differing implications for policy. A lack of clarity about which factors are responsible reinforces policy inaction. Here, for the first time, we construct a dynamic model that quantitatively agrees with food prices. The results show that the dominant causes of price increases are investor speculation and ethanol conversion. Models that just treat supply and demand are not consistent with the actual price dynamics. The two sharp peaks in 2007/2008 and 2010/2011 are specifically due to investor speculation, while an underlying trend is due to increasing demand from ethanol conversion. The model includes investor trend-following as well as shifting between commodities, equities and bonds to take advantage of increased expected returns. Claims that speculators cannot influence grain prices are shown to be invalid by direct analysis of price setting practices of granaries. Both causes of price increase, speculative investment and ethanol conversion, are promoted by recent regulatory changes—deregulation of the commodity markets, and policies promoting the conversion of corn to ethanol. Rapid action is needed to reduce the impacts of the price increases on global hunger. very difficult because of the substantial vested interests now represented in both arenas."
High and volatile global food prices have led to food riots and played a critical role in trigger... more High and volatile global food prices have led to food riots and played a critical role in triggering the Arab Spring revolutions in recent years. The severe drought in the US in the summer of 2012 led to a new increase in food prices. Through the fall, they remained at a threshold above which the riots and revolutions had predominantly occurred. Global prices at this level create conditions where an exacerbating local circumstance can trigger unrest. Global corn (maize) prices reached new highs, and countries that depend mostly on maize are more likely to experience high local food prices and associated pressures toward social unrest. Here we analyze the conditions in South Africa, which is a heavily maize-dependent country. Coinciding with increased consumer food indices this summer, massive labor strikes in mining and agriculture have led to the greatest single incident of social violence since the fall of apartheid in 1994. Worker demands for dramatic pay increases reflect that their wages have not kept up with drastic increases in the prices of necessities, especially food. Without attention to the global food price situation, more incidents of food-based social instability are likely to arise. Other countries that have manifested food-related protests and riots in 2012 include Haiti and Argentina. Moreover, these cases of unrest are just the most visible symptom of widespread suffering of poor populations worldwide due to elevated food prices. Policy decisions that would directly impact food prices are decreasing the conversion of maize to ethanol in the US, and reimposing regulations on commodity futures markets to prevent excessive speculation, which we have shown causes bubbles and crashes in these markets. Absent such policy actions, governments and companies should track and mitigate the impact of high and volatile food prices on citizens and employees.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, Jan 10, 2015
Recent increases in basic food prices are severely affecting vulnerable populations worldwide. Pr... more Recent increases in basic food prices are severely affecting vulnerable populations worldwide. Proposed causes such as shortages of grain due to adverse weather, increasing meat consumption in China and India, conversion of corn to ethanol in the United States, and investor speculation on commodity markets lead to widely differing implications for policy. A lack of clarity about which factors are responsible reinforces policy inaction. Here, for the first time to our knowledge, we construct a dynamic model that quantitatively agrees with food prices. The results show that the dominant causes of price increases are investor speculation and ethanol conversion. Models that just treat supply and demand are not consistent with the actual price dynamics. The two sharp peaks in 2007/2008 and 2010/2011 are specifically due to investor speculation, whereas an underlying upward trend is due to increasing demand from ethanol conversion. The model includes investor trend following as well as sh...
Predicting panic is of critical importance in many areas of human and animal behavior, notably in... more Predicting panic is of critical importance in many areas of human and animal behavior, notably in the context of economics. The recent financial crisis is a case in point. Panic may be due to a specific external threat or self-generated nervousness. Here we show that the recent economic crisis and earlier large single-day panics were preceded by extended periods of high levels of market mimicry-direct evidence of uncertainty and nervousness, and of the comparatively weak influence of external news. High levels of mimicry can be a quite general indicator of the potential for self-organized crises.
High and volatile global food prices have led to food riots and played a critical role in trigger... more High and volatile global food prices have led to food riots and played a critical role in triggering the Arab Spring revolutions in recent years. The severe drought in the US in the summer of 2012 led to a new increase in food prices. Through the fall, they remained at a threshold above which the riots and revolutions had predominantly occurred. Global prices at this level create conditions where an exacerbating local circumstance can trigger unrest. Global corn (maize) prices reached new highs, and countries that depend mostly on maize are more likely to experience high local food prices and associated pressures toward social unrest. Here we analyze the conditions in South Africa, which is a heavily maize-dependent country, and we find that consumer food indices have increased dramatically. Coinciding with the food price increases this summer, massive labor strikes in mining and agriculture have led to the greatest single incident of social violence since the fall of apartheid in 1994. Worker demands for dramatic pay increases reflect that their wages have not kept up with drastic increases in the prices of necessities, especially food. Without attention to the global food price situation, more incidents of food-based social instability are likely to arise.
In a recent quasi-elastic neutron scattering experiment on water confined in a Portland cement pa... more In a recent quasi-elastic neutron scattering experiment on water confined in a Portland cement paste, we find that this 3D confined water shows a dynamic crossover phenomenon at T L = 227 ± 5 K. The DSC heat-flow scan upon cooling and an independent measurement of specific heat at constant pressure of confined water in silica gel show a prominent peak at the same temperature. We show in this paper that this type of behavior is common to many other glassy liquids, which also show the crossover temperature in coincidence with the temperature of a small specific heat peak. We also demonstrate with MD simulations that the dynamic crossover phenomenon in confined water is an intrinsic property of bulk water, and is not due to the confinement effect. Recently, an extended version of the mode coupling theory (MCT) including the hopping effect was developed. This theory shows that, instead of a structural arrest transition at T C predicted by the idealized MCT, a fragile-to-strong dynamic crossover phenomenon takes place instead at T C , confirming both the experimental and the numerical results. The coherent and incoherent α relaxation times can be scaled with the calculated viscosity, showing the same crossover phenomenon. We thus demonstrated with experiments, simulations and theory that a genuine change of dynamical behavior of both water and many glassy liquids happens at the crossover temperature T L , which is 10-30% higher than the calorimetric glass transition temperature T g .
Abstract. We have observed a Fragile-to-Strong Dynamic Crossover (FSC) phenomenon of the α-relaxa... more Abstract. We have observed a Fragile-to-Strong Dynamic Crossover (FSC) phenomenon of the α-relaxation time and self-diffusion constant in hydration water of three biopolymers: lysozyme, B-DNA and RNA. The mean squared displacement (MSD) of hydrogen atoms is measured by Elastic Neutron Scattering (ENS) experiments. The α-relaxation time is measured by Quasi-Elastic Neutron Scattering (QENS) experiments and the self-diffusion constant by Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (NMR) experiments. We discuss the active role ...
DNA nanoconstructs are obtained in solution by using six unique 42-mer DNA oligonucleotides, whos... more DNA nanoconstructs are obtained in solution by using six unique 42-mer DNA oligonucleotides, whose sequences have been designed to form a pseudohexagonal structure. The required flexibility is provided by the insertion of two non-base-paired thymines in the middle of each sequence that work as flexible hinges and constitute the corners of the nanostructure when formed. We show that hexagonally shaped nanostructures of about 7 nm diameter and their corresponding linear open constructs are formed by self-assembly of the specifically designed linear oligonucleotides. The structural and dynamical characterization of the nanostructure is obtained in situ for the first time by using dynamic light scattering (DLS), a noninvasive method that provides a fast dynamic and structural analysis and allows the characterization of the different synthetic DNA nanoconstructs in solution. A validation of the LS results is obtained through Monte Carlo (MC) simulations and atomic force microscopy (AFM). In particular, a mesoscale molecular model for DNA, developed by Knotts et al., is exploited to perform MC simulations and to obtain information about the conformations as well as the conformational flexibilities of these nanostructures, while AFM provides a very detailed particle analysis that yields an estimation of the particle size and size distribution. The structural features obtained by MC and AFM are in good agreement with DLS, showing that DLS is a fast and reliable tool for characterization of DNA nanostructures in solution.
Aqueous dispersions of the phospholipid dioctanoylphosphatidylcholine (diC 8 PC) phase-separate b... more Aqueous dispersions of the phospholipid dioctanoylphosphatidylcholine (diC 8 PC) phase-separate below a cloud-point temperature, depending on lipid concentration. The lower phase is viscous and rich in lipid. The structure and dynamics of this system were explored via cryo-transmission electron microscopy (cryo-TEM), small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS), and NMR. The lower phase comprises a highly interconnected tridimensional network of wormlike micelles. A molecular mechanism for the phase separation is suggested.
Abstract: Increases in global food prices have led to widespread hunger and social unrest---and a... more Abstract: Increases in global food prices have led to widespread hunger and social unrest---and an imperative to understand their causes. In a previous paper published in September 2011, we constructed for the first time a dynamic model that quantitatively agreed with food prices. Specifically, the model fit the FAO Food Price Index time series from January 2004 to March 2011, inclusive. The results showed that the dominant causes of price increases during this period were investor speculation and ethanol conversion.
Abstract: During the last two years, Europe has been facing a debt crisis, and Greece has been at... more Abstract: During the last two years, Europe has been facing a debt crisis, and Greece has been at its center. In response to the crisis, drastic actions have been taken, including the halving of Greek debt. Policy makers acted because interest rates for sovereign debt increased dramatically. High interest rates imply that default is likely due to economic conditions. High interest rates also increase the cost of borrowing and thus cause default to be likely.
Abstract: Recent droughts in the midwestern United States threaten to cause global catastrophe dr... more Abstract: Recent droughts in the midwestern United States threaten to cause global catastrophe driven by a speculator amplified food price bubble. Here we show the effect of speculators on food prices using a validated quantitative model that accurately describes historical food prices. During the last six years, high and fluctuating food prices have lead to widespread hunger and social unrest.
Abstract. High resolution quasi-elastic neutron scattering is used to investigate the slow dynami... more Abstract. High resolution quasi-elastic neutron scattering is used to investigate the slow dynamics of hydration water confined in calcium silicate hydrate gel in an aged cement paste at supercooled temperatures. A super-Arrhenius to Arrhenius dynamic crossover of the average translational relaxation time\ langle\ tau\ rangle as a function of the inverse temperature is observed at TL= 231±5 K, which coincides with a prominent peak in the differential scanning calorimetry cooling scan.
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very difficult because of the substantial vested interests now represented in both arenas."
very difficult because of the substantial vested interests now represented in both arenas."