The social challenge of global change: A survey

THE SOCIAL CHALLENGE OF GLOBAL CHANGE: A SURVEY by Rodney Dobell and Edward Parson with the assistance of Judy Klima and Darcy Dobell November,1988 PREFACE In November 1988 the Institute for Research on Public Policy submitted to the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada (SSHRC) a brief report and proposal for a five­year research program to be mounted by SSHRC under the heading liThe Social Challenge of Global Change". That proposal was not adopted in its current form, but the possibility of some future research initiative along the lines identified is still under discussion, and the general line of argument maybe of wider interest, as may be some of the background documentation. Accordingly, this Working Paper incorporates, as Part I, the November 1988 report written primarily by Ian Jackson under the direction of Jim MacNeill and David Runnals of this Institute's program on Environment and Sustainable Qevelopment, together with a conceptual framework (Part II) and literature survey (Part III) developed by Ted Parson in association with Rod Dobell. A bibliography (as of September 1988) on global change prepared by Judi Klima and Darcy Dobell under the supervision of Ted Parson is not included with this document but is available on request. Rod Dobell President CONfENTS Part I Summary of IRPP Report to SSHRC Part II Conceptual Framework Part III Literature Survey and Analysis Part IV Global Change Database: Bibliography (not included ­ available on request) PART I ­ IRPP Report to SSHRC (Executive Summary only) THE SOCIAL CHALLENGE OF GLOBAL CHANGE A report prepared by The Institute for Research on Public Policy for the Social Sciences & Humanities Research Council Institute for Research on Public Policy November 1988 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1. This report to the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council (SSHRC) provides a framework for a five­year program of research, analysis and policy development on the c.ritical issues of global change and sustainable development It proposes that Canada's capacity for human sciences research on global issues should ~ . greatly strengthened. with a significant increase in funding through SSHRC and oth~ . means. It also proposes a new style of research aimed at meeting a growing and urgent demand for infonned policy on global change issues. 2. This proposal on the Social Challenge of Global Change has been developed by the Institute for Research on Public Policy (IRPP). in cooperation with the Royal Society of Canada' (RSC). Preparation of the proposal has been supported by SSHRC, as part of the Council's 'one time experimental program designed to help identify priority areas for research and to explore ways of enhancing the national contribution of the social sciences and humanities.· 1 3. The program has been conceived within a broad international context. marked by exploding demands for information. policy development; and action. and a growing need to understand and, where possible, influence the phenomena of global change. The program is based on the view that 'research on topics of national importance', research that is linked to 'the challenges faced by contemporary society'2, should be conceived both to advance knowledge and to suggest solutions. Such research can be expected to address the illnesses of, or threats to, Canadian and global society, in the 1 Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada. SSHRC: Focus on Strategis;s, Ottawa. 1988. 2 Idem. 2 same way that research into medical problems frequently both advances knowledge and has important clinical implications. The proposal recognizes that research reports by themselves seldom lead directly to policy and action. It therefore includes elements that. even if they ~o beyond the present funding limitations faced by SSHRC, strongly support the Council's objective to 'enhance the national contribution of the social sciences and humanities.' 4. The need for recognition of the Social Challenge of Global Change as a strategic theme for Canadian research arises from two important streams of intellectual development that have converged in the last few years. FJISt. natural scientists have reached general agreement that changes of unprecedented magnitude are taking place in the atmosphere. the oceans, and terrestrial ecosystems. They have concluded that novel forms of collaboration between physical and biological scientists are needed to understand these changes. The International Geosphere­Biosphere Programme (IGBP) will be the principal international effort in this direction during the 199Os. The Royal Society of Canada is organizing and leading Canada's contribution ro.IGBP, through its project on Global Change.3 A similar international program in the social sciences and humanities, under the title Human Dimensions of Global Change'" is being developed in parallel with IGBP, and the present proposal has been conceived as the principal Canadian contribution to the Human Dimensions program. 5. Second. a long line of political and social thought has asserted that both the causes and consequences of global change can be understood only by examining human attitudes, values and behaviour, and by illuminating the processes through which our public and private institutions arrive at decisions on economic and social ­ ­ ­ ­ ..... - ­ '--"--3 Royal Society of Canada, The Canadian Global Change ProgramlLe Programme Canadien de la Transformation du Globe. Ottawa. 1988. .. _... ..­ ... The Human Dimensions of Global Change: An International Programme on Human Interactions with the Earth. Toronto, 1988, unpublished. 3 development. Our Common Future. the Report of the World Commission on Environment and Development (the Brundtland Commission) is the· most recent landmark demonstration of this need.' The Report identified behaviour patterns, public policies and modes of decision making that are now driving the destruction of the planet's environmental resoun::e base, reducing the potential for development, and threatening survival. It proposed profound changes in these in order to effect a transio_~ubl development. 6. One example of such changes ­ described by the Brundtland Commission ~ 'the chief institutional challenge of the 199Os' is that the ecological dimensions of policy be considered at the same time as the economic, trade, energy, agricultural. industrial, and other dimensions ­ on the same agendas and in the sam~ national and international institutions ... ...the major central economic and sectoral agencies of governments should now be made directly responsible and fully accountable for ensuring that their policies, programmes, and budgets support development that is ecologically as well as economically sustainable.6 7. The analysis and recommendations of the Brundtland Commission have been widely endorsed by leaders of government, industty, institutes and academe, nationally and internationally. The National Task Force on Environment and Economy adapted the Brundtland recommendation to Canada.7 Its report has been endorsed by Fist Ministers, and includes a call for greatly increased research on the socio­economic and S World Commission on Environment and Development,. Qur Common Future. Oxford University Press, New York, 1987. 6 Ibid., pp 313­314. National Task Force on .Environment and Economy, Report. Canadian Council of Resource and Envirorunent Ministers (CCREM). Ottawa, 1987. 7 . 4 institutional dimensions of the issues. Similar processes are underway in other countries, and in a large number of international organizations. The 1988 G7 Economic Summit in Toronto addressed global change issues, and endorsed the principle of sustainable development in its final communique. 8. As a consequence of the attention and support that issues of global change and sustainable development have attracted, there now exists an unprecedented demand for advice on the behavioural, policy, and institutional changes needed to address the issues, or to adapt to the realities, of global change. This demand far exceeds the existing capacity for research, analysis, and policy development by those individuals and instihltions now engaged in these issues. 9. Of the vast relevant world literature (swveyed in Appendix 3). only a relatively small part is explicitly on global change; that which is tends to be removed from the academic mainstream. A greater body of research is implicitly relevant to global change. .Although not motivated by considerations of sustainability, it is related to three broad themes: the social origins of global change; the social impact of global change; ·and the social response to global change. Much of the material in the last category is descriptive. but some is prescriptive. and presumes the ability of societies to manage change. 10. This proposed five­year program of research, analysis. and policy d~velopmnt is driven essentially by policy concerns, and focuses on providing analysis and information in fonns that policymakers can use. It therefore takes into account the SSHRC's expressed wish to 'playa more active and central role in addressing the challenges faced by contemporary society' and to emphasize 'the usefulness of social sciences and humanities research in Canada. t 11. Even when Wldenaken by multidisciplinary teams, academic and similar research is seldom planned with the needs of the potential users in mind; with 5 questions framed in terms meaningful to them; and with the results prepared and packaged in ways that they can understand and use with confidence. Along with the highly selective research program, therefore, IRPP proposes a much broader dissemination effort, involving a high­level panel or advisory committee as an integral part of the link from the research effort to the policy applications. This panel would include leaders from the research community, together with senior policymakers in government and the private sector, and other appropriate individuals and representatives. 12. The panel would also provide guidance for a process of applied policy analysis, to be managed by IRPP in cooperation with the RSC, employing various techniques. In particular, these would include 'policy exercises' around selected priority issues where there is both a need and a demand for 'policy advice. IRP~s policy .exercises would provide an interface between academics and policy makers, with a policy analyst and support staff provided by IRPP. They would bring together, for a period of several days to a week, policy and decision­makers, the natural and human scientists doing research in academe or institutes on various aspects of the issue, and other experts, for example in systems analysis. The exercises would be structured ~exibly, and would serve to synthesize and assess knowledge accumulated in several relevant fields for policy purposes, in light of real institutional and political problems. The participants would be expected to consider the real constraints to resolution of a policy issue, how best to formulate the questions requiring analysis, how to achieve solutions to broad issues that are decided as much by societal consensus ­ or the lack of it ­ as by systematic analysis, and how to package and present the results to users. 13. As regards the costs of the program, the Institute recommends that SSHRC provide $525,000 in the first year of the program and $1.2 million in the seCond and subsequent years. A strategy is proposed, based on SSHRC's concept of a 'concerted initiative'. that anticipates a total annual flow of funds into research on this strategic theme of over $2,()(X),OOO. 6 14. The conceptual framework adopted in the proposal, in advocating research to inform policy, presumes that policy can make a difference. In this view, the study of causal mechanisms is considered a sean:h for opportunities for intervention, where intervention is found to be essential. Some elements of human response to global environmental change are no doubt subject to conscious intervention, and others are not. Similarly, cole~v action to intervene in social and economic adjustment mechanisms may be appropriate in some situations and not in others; the identification of situations where intervention is called for is a necessary theme in the research plan. 15. If we accept this policy­oriented framework for resean:h on the Social Challenge of Global Change, it becomes possible to identify several criteria to govern the selection of topics and the determination of priorities. These criteria include: that the research topic offer a reasonable expectation of yielding knowledge useful to policy­makers; that the resea.n:h focus on the phenomena that link the social, economic and cultural causes of global change back to the perceived impacts of global change; that it be consistent with the efficient allocation of research effort internationally, by focussing on particular Canadian research needs, 'opportunities, or advantages. 16. Three principal themes are proposed for the five­year research program: Instituti0n..s d_~ ~s,._e; Economy­Environment Linkages! and the Cultural and Ethical Roots of Eoonomic/Environmental Behaviour. 7 17. In the first of these themes, it is recognized that whereas our economic and ecological systems have become totally interlocked in the real world, the relv~t institutions remain almost totally divorced. If society is to gain greater capacity to manage the human dimensions of global change, it must find ways to bridge this gap, and to integrate ecological considerations into centnd political and economic decisions. 18. The dange!S posed by global change, and the need for alternative, sustainable. forms of development must become primary considerations in decisions oQ. macroeconomic policy, trade and fiscal policy•. science and technology, energy. agricultural, industrial and other sectoral policies. This imperative calls into question current forms of responsibility and accountability in public and private institutions; it also raises major questions about the shape and political feasibility of alternative forms that are to be incorporated in actual institutional structures and decision­making processes. 19. In regard to the theme of Economy­Environment Linkage, the academic literature on this topic is well developed at a theoretical level, but corresponding empirical work is largely lacking. and the broad appreciation necessary for practical application in government or corporate decision processes is almost entirely absent. There can be no doubt that. if societies in Canada and throughout the world are to respond effectively to the threats posed by accelerating global change. major alterations will be required to long­standing and well­established policies and practices that are at the heart of the linkage between economy and environment. 20. Policy­oriented research on the relationship between structural change in the economy and global change is also vital. It can be demonstrated fairly readily that a reduction in the­resource input of production will usually lead to a reduction in the producti~ amount of emissions and wastes, as well as to a reduction in the overall costs of and consequent increase in productivity and competitiveness. 8 21. Ethical and Value Systems are at the root of much of the human behaviour that contributes to global change. It bas been argued that an essential requirement for a realistic study of the social dimensions of global change should be t ••• a realistic 8;ppraisal of the breadth of interests· of human beings, of their passions, of their capacity for rational choice, and of their capacity for perverse or counter­intuitive behaviour.' Similarly it has been suggested that 'The somewhat mechanistic manner in which the broad [global change] issues have been cast by many hwried experts might explain why they have failed to ignite any real interest in the population... In many ways, the lack: of a satisfactory model of man may lie at the root of the apparent incapacity to mobilize the population on the subject of global change.' 22. If adopted, therefore, this proposal would involve SSHRC in a new strategic theme, and would also involve the social sciences in Canada in a broad research program that is global in scope and that is linked to major research initiatives in both the natural and human sciences in Canada and other countries. It would be characterized by a well­coordinated research program that is clearly directed towards the development of public policy, with significant consequences for both Canada and the world. PART II ­ Conceptual Framework CONCEPTUAL PRAIIE.ORK POR GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH 1. Purposes of a Conceptual pramework There are two things we want from a conceptual framework: that it provide an organizing scheme to help clarify our thinking on the exceedingly broad literature bearing on global change; and that it help us find suitable criteria to define a coherent set of research themes that is most suitable, most promising, for a 5­year Canadian program. This outline approaches the two questions in order: first attempting to clarify the structure of research opportunities, then drawing out promising themes. 2. Pirst Organizing Scheme: Causes, xmpacts, and Responses A possible, and popular, conceptual approach to the problem is to divide social aspects of global change into three parts: social causes of global change, social impacts of global change, and social response to global change. Studying the social causes involves investigating what human activities are the principal sources of environmental changes that matter. In some instances, these questions are. easy to answer: an example is the origin of increased atmospheric CO2 in increased fossil fuel combustion and tropical deforestation. In other cases, finding the human sources of environmental changes may be very difficult: human sources of increased atmospheric methane are a clear example. Studying social impacts involves asking what environmental changes are most important for societies, and how to measure their effects. The social response is the linkage between sources and effects on the human side. What economic, institutional, and cultural factors determine the activities and artifacts that represent the crucial human burdens on the global system and determine the nature and extent of impact? What are the linkages through which impacts on society influence social causes, how do these linkages evolve, and how can they be influenced? Figure 1 illustrates this three­fold division of the issue. The social and natural (biogeochemical) systems are shown as separate systems, interacting through social causes of global environmental change on the right, and social impacts on the left. The human response is shown as a set of complex interactions internal to the social system that connects social impacts to social causes. 1 I'I:GURE 1 Integrated system recognizing finite resource bases, finite disposal capacity, environmental feedbacks, and ecological limits to human activity. NATURAL SYSTEM DYNAMICS ECOSPHERE lL I" fRENEWABLE RESOURCE BASEl Human Loading onto Environment and Drawdown of Resource Base EXHAUSTIBLE RESOURCE BASE [IGBP Program] [SCGC Program] ,........ SOCI:AL SYSTEM DYNAMI:CS "social impacts" of global change I "social causes" of global ~hange "~ ... < /'" "SOCIAL RESPONSE" TO GLOBAL CHANGE Investment and growth of capital stock Investment and growth of human resources CONSUMPTION 1 Simple though Figure 1 is, it still embodies the fundamental change of view that has appeared over the past 30 years ­­ that economic (and other human) activity is an open subsystem of a closed system; the larger closed system, the environment, provides the context for human activity. (It is perhaps important to emphasize that this language of systems theory, or "systems perspective", is adopted for expository purposes; it is not intended to suggest any fully causal structure or fully specified "social dynamics", nor to overlook the fact that the ways in which people interact in the games they play may alter the systems and rules of the games themselves. It is also important to note that for practical purposes our natural system should be considered not closed, but continually refreshed through inflows of solar energy driving the process of photosynthesis; similarly for human systems one might see a counterpart in intellectual energy driving processes of innovation and technological progress ­­ for many observers it is this which makes conceivable the prospect of continuous growth on a finite Earth.) The dominant earlier view showed the social system without connections. to a natural system, or at least without connection to a natural system whose internal dynamics mattered. Rather, economic activity was treated as the drawing of natural resources as material inputs from an infinite source, and the dumping of waste products into an infinite sink. To close the loops is to admit the possibility of limits on the material scale of human activity, to consider that human impacts on the natural systems may alter the rang.e of possible actions available to humans. This view tends to emphasize feedbacks involving renewable resource systems, however, not the hard limits associated with the exhaustion of non­renewable resources emphasized in the early "limits to growth" literature. All three parts of Figure 1 ­­ causes, impacts, and response ­­ represent important questions, but we focus on the third (recognizing that in fact our response to past impacts determines the future success of global change. The reasons are that there is a larger body of work done and in train on the other two, and that the third is the most directly applicable to pressing national policy questions. We seek policy relevance by focusing on those internal structures, incentives, institutions, artifacts of the human system that interact most strongly with the natural system. There are two broad philosophical approaches to this study. A large body of work in social sciences proceeds from the assumption that the dynamics and feedbacks determining human choice and response are deterministic. This perspective can be found in Marxist theories of history, in behaviourism, and, with respect to policy interventions, in the modern economic doctrine of rational expectations. From the perspective of policy responses to global environmental change, none of these views offers any hope of making any difference. 3 We adopt the alternative view; in advocating research to inform policy, we presume that policy can make a difference and that people can exercise discretion and choice in making policy. In this view, the study of causal mechanisms is considered a search for opportunities constructive for intervention, where intervention is found to be essential. This view imputes only weak causality to human systems, akin not to natural law but to habit. Deterministic social theories cannot be rej ected out of hand, though; they remind those who advocate policy interventions of the need for humility. Some elements of human response to global environmental change are no doubt subject to conscious intervention, and others not. In some cases collective action to intervene in social or economic adjustment mechanisms may be appropriate; in other cases, not: to identify where intervention is called for is indeed one theme in the research plan identified below. The need for humility is particularly evident when comparing the limited repertoire of policies available at the national level to the variety of scales at which human response can occur. Since we are principally concerned with national policy needs, we must look for opportunities where policy at the national level can exert its maximum influence, while recognizing that some aspects of human response will be outside anyone's control and that others, controllable at family or community scale or at international scale, will not be controllable at national scale. In summary, we are looking inside the human system but at those sectors where decisions have the strongest links to the natural system. In the Canadian context, we have chosen four sectors where human activities are particularly strongly linked to the environment: Energy policy, Agriculture and Forestry policy, Air and Water Policy, and Urban and Industrial policy. In addition to being areas of greatest impact, these policy areas correspond to the responsibilities of existing federal departments, so focusing on them is most likely to lead to the questions for which policy­makers need answers. 3. Second organizing Scheme: Looking into Response Figure 2 suggests a scheme for examining basic research relevant to these four policy areas. We propose four research perspectives, that we call CUlture and Values, Technology, Economy, and Governance. The first two represent the determinants of what is desired and what is possible at a micro level, the factors that underlie individual choices in economic, political, social, and cultural arenas. The latter two represent alternative mechanisms for aggregating individual behaviour into social outcomes, and mediating between preferences and possibilities so as to determine the allocation of resources and the shape of human activities from moment to moment. 4 Internal structure of the social system: choice among competing outputs achieved through alternative allocations of resources; looking behind the economic framework to the underlying human sciences. ALTERNATIVE OUTPUTS Prererences and Values Economy: Markets as mediating mechanisms to establish resour allocations and reconcile pref with potenti Technology: Technologically feasible region; potential outputs; long term evolution of philosophy of science, research orientation, balance of research efforts. Long term dynamics of evolving social and ethical systems of values and beliefs; culture and communications; intergenerational transmission of values. Governance: institutions and other social ices as mechanisms to establish resource allocations and reconcile preferences with potential industrial outputs. INDUSTRIAL OUTPUTS 5 CUlture and Values denotes the study of the preferences, perceptions, social norms, cultural artifacts, and ethical values that shape people's choices (economic, political, cultural, and social) affecting the natural environment ­­ what is desired ­and, normatively, ethical reasoning evaluating these factors and their outcomes ­­ what ought to be desired. The important research agenda involves what factors most strongly affect the kinds of behaviour with most significant impacts on environment, and how these factors change and interact. Technology denotes the set of physical transformation possibilities available as instruments for the playing out of individual and collective choices ­­ what is possible. Technology is determined by the present state of knowledge about people and the physical world, is embodied in a society's capital (including human and institutional capital, as well as physical), and is modified by research, innovation, education, and comuniat~ . Economy denotes the study of aggregation by market mechanisms that translate individual economic choices into collective decisions as to what is produced, consumed, and disposed of. Governance denotes the study of other institutional mechanisms for translating individual into collective choice ­­ legal systems, hierarchical organizations, co­operatives, elective politics, bureaucratic regulatory systems, and so on. 4. A Framework for a Research Agenda Figure 2 does not show the four policy areas selected above, which can be thought of as cutting across all four of the research perspectives. The combination of four policy areas and four research perspectives can be represented by a four­by­four matrix, as shown in Figure 3. The rows represent policy areas, each lying in the jurisdiction of a government body, that are central to Canadian concerns with human­environment interactions. The concrete questions to which policy­makers need answers lie along these rows: should we subsidize agriculture, and if so, howr should we make major public investments in energy supply projects and if so, how and which ones; how should we use our available policy instruments to influence the location and structure of settlement arid industry? The columns identify the possible conceptual lenses for thinking about environmental policy questions; they identify the approaches, based on interest and disciplinary background and training, that researchers are most likely to take in studying questions of global change. Most, although by no means all, of the existing large body of relevant social research corresponds to the columns of this matrix. To bridge the existing body of research with the needs of policy­makers, part of what is needed is research 6 that fills in particular cells of the matrix. But also needed is research that bridges gaps between cells in a given row, moving toward an integrated view of a policy area that balances considerations of technical possibility, cultural and value systems, and institutional mechanisms for collective decisions and management. FIGURE 3 .. RESEARCH PERSPECTIVE VALUES INSTITUTIONS POLICY FIELDS ENERGY AGRICULTURE/ FORESTS ECOLOGICAL RESOURCES (AIR, WATER, SOIL) SETTLEMENTS/ MIGRATION • DATA BASE AND MODELLING METHODOLOGIES • POLICY ANALYSIS METHODOLOGY • INFORMATION AND PUBLIC EDUCATION 7 ECONOMY TECHNOLOGY ~. survey of Existing' Research Part II provides a detailed survey and analysis of the social sciences literature relevant to global environmental change. While the breadth of this subject requires that even that survey is highly selective, two particularly salient themes are evident in the recent literature. First, research has moved progressively from exam~ng one issue at a time toward several at once. There is increasing work on comprehensive studies of interacting resource, environmental, social, and economic phenomena. At the same time, researchers have grown increasingly sophisticated in their view of the spatial scale and time span of interacting social, economic, and environmental phenomena. This trend is evident in recent work on comprehensive inter­disciplinary regional case studies, in the developing field of reconstructing economic­environmental histories, and in t;h~ design of both analytiq models of human­environmental systems and policy exercises to study interactive decision­making in complex uncertain situations. Second, the economic literature on market failures associated with environmental and resource issues is now well developed: examination of these issues now most often raises questions that lie outside traditional economic study, in two areas. First, there are many occasions when people's behaviour seems not to exhibit the properties of individual rationality assumed by economic models: in these situations, it is necessary to examine the cultural and value systems that underlie individual and collective choice, which often have greater influence on the aggregate sustainability of behaviour patterns than narrowly­defined economic incentives. Second, there are many occasions when individually rational economic behaviour yields outcomes that are collectively destructive; in these situations, the crucial questions concern the design of institutional arrangements for management and governance of natural and economic systems, to channel individuals' economic choices into directions more likely to yield sustainable outcomes. 6. criteria for FUture Research Priorities with the foregoing conceptual framework in mind, and the survey of existing literature reviewed in Part II, it is possible to identify several criteria to govern the selection of topics and the determination of priorities for a further program of policy research in Canada. These criteria include: • That it provide a reasonable expectation of yielding knowledge that will be useful to national policy­makers; 8 • That it focus on social responses, phenomena that link the social causes of global change to perceived social impacts of global change; . • That it address one or more of the policy areas and one or more of the research perspectives presented in Figure 3; • That it be consistent with the efficient allocation of research effort internationally by focusing on particular Canadian research needs or opportunities. A Canadian comparative research advantage could originate in any of several factors: that the unique history, geography, institutional structures, or role in world affairs of Canada make a particular research endeavour more urgent or more suitable for study in Canada than elsewhere; or that world­leading researchers work in Canada. In addition, our examination of the state of literature in the field suggests some further harrowing of directions of enquiry. Literature on Technology is well developed, and investigation in the current Canadian context is actively underway, in two SSHRC­supported endeavours (the strategic programme, The Human Context of Science and Technology, and the proposal now under development on the Management of Technology. Consequently, we have chosen not to focus this proposal on the area of Technology. For similar reasons, we propose not to stress the Economy theme. Because the literature examining market failure from an economic perspective is well developed, it is our view that using the existing literature as a springboard to inform an investigation of institutional questions, and of the roots of economic behaviour in culture and value systems, would be a more effective research strategy. SSHRC's stated primary goal is to select research that addresses important national needs. Our present actions regarding environment and development show two striking inadequacies: that we do not think long enough (do not give enough regard to the future); and that we do not think broadly enough (do not give enough regard to the impacts of our decisions on others, including those physically distant from us). The most important information that research could provide would be information· helping to understand the nature and origin of these errors, and indicating concrete ways to reduce them. with this in mind, we propose the following two clusters of research topics as priorities for immediate future work. 9 7. Themes for a Research Program A) znstitutions and Decision Processes: Institutions capable of taking a sufficiently long and broad view, and of making their decisions stick, are strikingly absent on the international stage. This program would examine the existing array of international institutions legal frameworks, conventions, international organizations, and established negotiating flora -- and seek concrete means of broadening the scope of their vision and increasing their authority. This research area will not be entirely international in focus, for the questions of broadening the scope and lengthening the time horizon of collective institutions are as relevant domestically as internationally. Candidate topics include the following: .. The question of commitment: what conditions enable individuals or nations to bind themselves to act together for the common welfare, and how can the practical duration of such commitments be increased? The international legal framework: to what extent do existing international resource or environmental agreements (e.g. stockholm declaration, Vienna convention and Montreal protocol on substances depleting the Ozone layer, Law of the Sea, European convention on Long­Range Transboundary Air Pollution) provide appropriate models for international action on the most pressing current problems. More importantly, what crucial features do they lack? International negotiations on the environment: do the distinct characteristics of global environmental issues, expressed in terms of the internal and external distribution of costs and benefits, the nature of uncertainty about future costs, and principal­agent relations, give these issues a significantly different structure than the older issues on the international agenda, trade and security? If so, do these structural differences suggest different ways of crafting international organizations or negotiating fora? Alternatively, is the range of feasible tradeoffs within a strictly environmental negotiation so limited that progress can only be made through comprehensive negotiations involving trade and/or security as well? Do recent examples of international environmental negotiations offer insights into either explaining the roles taken by different nations or proposing alternative negotiating structures? This project will include both case studies and theoretical background. Defining information needs for sustainability: It has become a commonplace observation that both private and public decision­making have recently become even more focused than before on short­term outcomes. The cause of this lies in part 10 in the information revolution; increasing computer power makes the information on which to base evaluations available ever faster, so agents in a competitive environment must respond to short­run signals. But the kind of information provided so rapidly is highly selective, including only those quantities that have been easy to measure and so used as conventions of corporate and public accounting, and so fails to reflect the drawdowns of resource, environmental, and human capital that often accompany the pursuit of short­run optimality. This proj ect will examine the information and measurement processes behind this shift to the short run. Can the information revolution be made broader, to include measures of these capital stocks? Would such a revision of accounting practice alone contribute to correcting the short­run bias in decision­making? Scales of Environmental Management: and Economic Process and Scales of ­ Relations between the temporal scales of global change phenomena and the time scales of political, social, and economic institutions; identification of natural adjustment mechanisms as well as those calling for collective intervention at local, provincial, national, or international levels. ­ Integrated regional case studies, particularly of regions likely to be unusually sensitive, ecologically and socially, to the kinds of global change anticipated ­­ eg the Arctic. ­Migration and Employment under changing climate and environment: what will be the likely range of shifts of population and employment between regions within Canada? What pressures will likely be imposed on our immigration system by increasing numbers of environmental refugees? B) The CUltural and Ethical Roots of Environmental Behaviour: This project will examine the influence that culture and value systems exercise in determining individual and collective behaviour toward the natural environment. The proposal will be developed in more detail in collaboration with the applied ethics group: Candidate topics for investigation include the following: Cross­CUItural Studies of Environmental Ethics: Is there any evidence that some national or ethnic groups' value systems are more effective than others' in keeping a sufficiently broad and long view? The Japanese are often cited as being better able to consider the long­run in their private and public institutional decision­making, but they were the most 11 significant violator of the international convention on whaling? Might their culture system sacrifice breadth for length, achieving regard for the future at the expense of regard for other groups? Native Value Systems and Environmental Exploitation: It is often said that native peoples' religious and value systems regarded the earth as sacred, and so succeeded in establishing a norm of husbandry in resource exploitation. Is there evidence that this is true, or is the crucial factor simply small numbers of people? Feminist perspectives on the ethic of exploitation: The feminist view on the environment and resource exploitation examines man's violence against nature and the importance of managing the earth well for future generations. Can a feminist ethic enhance our present system of policy­making and thus improve our chances of moving towards sustainability? The role of communication and symbol in public values: A platitude has it that "in politics, the perception is the reality", but Short­term public perceptions and the long­run factors that generate them sit in uneasy balance. North Americans' responses to African drought, and the response this past summer to the heat wave and drought, both show that compelling political forces can be created in the short­run to respond to problems whose origin and solution are both in long­run factors. What factors determine when a long­run problem can burst onto the short­run political agenda? Can decision mechanisms be crafted that channel this political will in the short­run to address the long­run underlying problems? Holism vs Reductionism? The focus on policy exercises indicates a practical, holistic focus: We must make decisions and policy, and must advise decisions, even when knowledge of component factors is incomplete or subject to dispute 8. Canadian Research Centres, and Research in Train This section contains a partial list of Canadian research centres engaged in Social Science work related to global change. The list reflects the information gathered from our continuing efforts to contact the community of Canadian Social Science researchers working in the field, and is obviously still in an early stage of development. The further definition and specification of a core network and establishment of operational relationships is obviously a key element of the initial work in the proposed future research program. 12 Working from East to West, one has the following centres or activities relevant to the research program on global change outlined here. A. Canada/Man and Biosphere Working Group on Human Ecology of Coastal Areas, School of Resource and Environmental Studies, Dr. A. Hanson, Dalhousie university: individual faculty members such as David Braybrooke and Lars Osberg pursuing work on ethical foundations, and Prof Robert Boardman, on International regulatory regimes. B. Les Centres de Recherche en Biologie Marine et en Sciences de l'Environnement, Moncton University. C. Groupe de Recherche en Economie de l'Energie et des Resources Naturelles (GREEN), Centre de Recherche en Amenagement et Developpement, et Groupe d'etudes Inuit et Circempolaires, l'Universite Laval. D. Climate Research Group, McGill University. E. Groupe GAMMA, Montreal. F. Faculte de l'Amenagement de l'Universite de Montreal and joint project with Faculty of Environmental Studies, York University on futures studies and environmental issues. G. Groupe de Recherche et d'Analyse Interdisciplinaire en Gestion de l'Environnement (GRAIGE), Universite du Quebec a Montreal, and joint activity with Institute of Environmental Sciences, University of Toronto on integrated solutions to urban problems. H. Trent University (Dr. Jonathan Bordo and colleagues), and joint project with University of Calgary. I. Institute of Environmental Sciences, University of Toronto; Great Lakes Ecosystem Rehabilitation Project. J. Faculty of Environmental Studies, University of Waterloo, especially the Sustainable Society project group, Department of Environment and Resource Studies. This group bases much of its work on the SERF model, and its present projects on simulation of scenarios for sustainable development in Canada (supported by SSHRC) will be directly complementary to that proposed here. This group is also well placed to provide links to international working groups on database and modeling methodology associated with the proposed international project on Human Dimensions of Global Change. K. Institute for Sustainable Development, Winnipeg. The future program of this new institute just announced evidently will be a central consideration in the future activities of the program 13 proposed here, but it is discussions at this stage. too early to pursue any concrete L. Canadian Institute of Resources Law and Calgary Institute for the Humanities, University of Calgary; this latter group and associated colleagues at the University of Calgary have established cross­disciplinary links with faculty at Trent University for work on a variety of topics including environmental ethics. M. UBC centres of activity: westwater Research Institute, studies of sustainable river basin development; School of Community and Regional Planning work on sustainable community and regional development, including forthcoming Nov. 1988 Symposium on Planning for Sustainable Development; Center for Research on Human Settlements, directed by Dr. David Hulchanski ~ Science, Technology and Society Committee of Academics, chaired by Dr. Barry Morrison; Institute of Resource Ecology, directed by c. S. Holling; Forest Economics Analysis Program, directed by Prof. Ilan vertinsky. These and related groups at UBC are expected to form the components of a proposed Integrated Resource Management Facility. N. Project on natural resource management and native self­government directed for IRPP by Dr. Frank cassidy, University of victora~ work on international regulatory regimes for resource management (professors Douglas Johnston and Murray Rankin, University of Victoria). In addition, it is necessary of course to take particular note of the Global Change project of the Royal Society of Canada, with which this proposed policy research program would be closely co­ordinated; the several provincial and national roundtables recently formed as conSUltative fora on economy and environment; Ie Conseil Consultatif de I' environnement in Quebec and the several federal government bodies within l'Institut National de Recherche Scientifique (1 'eau, l'energie, les ressources, l'oceanologie); and associations such as the Association of Canadian Universities for Northern Studies (Dr. Guy Brassard, Executive Director), the Canadian Association for Studies in Co­operation, associated with the Canadian Co­operatives Association, (Prof. Ian McPherson, President), the International Institute for Transportation and Ocean Policy (Prof. Edgar Gold, Director), and the Canadian Council for International Education. Bringing this partial inventory of current activity together with the conceptual framework earlier outlined, the literature surveyed in light of that framework, the criteria suggested to guide the planning of further work, and the research themes proposed for the immediate future work program as a result of those criteria, we identify the following elements as a focus for the network underlying the proposal brought forward in the next section. 14 • University of Victoria/IRPP: international regulations and international regulatory regimesi governability • UBc/university of Alberta: resource management • Calgary/Trent: environmental ethics • waterloo: comprehensive modeling and database methodologies • University of Toronto/GRAIGE: integrated urban management ecosystem rehabilitation • Dalhousie/IRPP: environmental ethics; philosophical foundations • IRPP ottawa: Global Change and sustainable development; policy exercises It is anticipated that work in the UBC/University of Alberta, Calgary/Trent, Waterloo, and University of Toronto/GRAIGE centres would proceed independently as activities directly complementary to the IRPP program proposed here, and would be closely monitored so that relevant results could be brought directly into the discussion processes and policy exercises central to the IRPP proposal. Work in other centres would of course be followed, but less closely, and possibly not through any integrated network. Work in the Dalhousie and victoria centres is proposed as part of the portfolio of co­operative research undertakings to be mounted jointly with IRPP but funded in part through the "seed money" component of the budget associated with the proposal to follow. 15 PART I:O:­ LITERATURE SURVEY AND ANALYSIS LITERATURE SURVEY AND ANALYSIS Part 1: Introductory comments 1. The literature relevant to this subject is vast, both in its historic span and in its disciplinary coverage. consequently, any survey such as this must be highly selective, seeking those lines of research from a variety of disciplines most relevant to global environmental change, and endeavoring to draw out only the most seminal themes from past work to illuminate present research priorities. 2. There exists less a separate Canadian literature, than a strong history of Canadian contributions integrated within an international literature. consequently, in this historical literature review, themes will be drawn from the international literature, and note made of particularly significant Canadian contributions. 3. At the broadest level, the Social Challenge of Global Change can include three related research themes: a) the social impact of global change: what elements of global environmental change have the strongest impact on society; how can social impacts be measured broadly, incorporating cultural, ethical, and political effects as well as economic effects; what factors mitigate impacts, and how do they interact and evolve? b) the social response to global change: what are the economic, political, social, CUltural, and behavioral phenomena that shape human activity in response to such impacts; how do these factors interact and evolve, taking into account these behavioural adjustments; what can be done, and by whom, to mitigate the impacts of global change on human welfare, and to modify the decision­making systems, cuItural norms, and other forces that underly human activities affecting global change? c) the social origins or causes of global change: what are the economic, political, social, cultural, ethical and behavioural phenomena that shape, in particular, human patterns of resource exploitation and environmental impact; how do these underlying factors interact and evolve; how can the consequent­· impacts be measured and monitored; taking into account these underlying beliefs and behaviours, what can be done, and by whom, to lessen the impacts of human activity on the environment? 4. Prior to the last decade relatively little social science research was explicitly on global change, and what little there was often mingled social commentary, newly­emerging knowledge in the natural sciences, and current political issues. Examples include George Perkins Marsh's Man and Nature, which gave voice to 16 the 19th century Conservation movement; Rachel Carson • s Silent Spring, which galvanized the 1960s environmental movement; and widespread speculation over catastrophic futures that appeared in the early 1970s, prompted by reactions to global modelling exercises such as The Limits to Growth. 5. A far larger body of social science literature is implicitly relevant to Global Change not directly motivated by considerations of environmental sustainability, but closely related to one of the three themes stated above. This category includes, for example, anthropological literature on the influence of cultural norms and value systems on the resource exploitation practices of societies; psychological literature on attitudes toward and perceptions of risk, and on how people weigh the interests of future generations; the study of how communication and symbols affect attitudes toward growth, development, and the environment; and a vast quantity of work in geography, sociology, government, law, history, and economics. Part 2: The Long­Run Heritage of sustainability 6. If you look hard enough, the roots of the notion of sustainability are ancient indeed. They go back to biblical notions of stewardship, and to a Utopian literature dating at least from Classical Greece, through Augustine and Thomas More. 7. Explicit recognition of the relations between human activities and the limits of the natural system can be found in the enlightenment philosophers and the classical economists. Condorcet argued for limitless human perfectibility, but expressed his vision so ambiguously that it could represent either material or spiritual progress. ~ Malthus's seminal work first stated the conflict between tight global constraints and intrinsically exponential processes of human growth. 2 The classical economists mostly held the view that the generation and accumulation of material wealth was only a temporary problem, so their description of human activity applied only to a transitional period in human progress. This view was best stated by Mill: "The increase in wealth is not boundless: at the end of what is termed the progressive state lies the stationary state: all progress in wealth is but a postponement of this •••• I cannot regard the stationary state of capital and wealth with the unaffected aversion so generally manifested towards it ••• A stationary condition of capital and population implies no 1 Esauisse d 'un Tableau Historique des Progres de 1 'Esprit Humaine, Agasse, Paris 1795. 2 Essay on the Principle of Population, 1798. 17 stationary state of human improvement. There would be as much scope as ever for all kinds of mental culture, and moral and social progress... when minds cease to be engrossed by the art of getting on. ,,3 8. Later work in political economy largely lost touch with these early insights. The classical formulations of Walras, Marshall and Hicks, and modern neo­classical theory, are principally based on the twin assumptions of insatiable material wants and limitless material inputs. The assumption of insatiability was periodically questioned ­­ Veblen presented a reductio ad absurdum of the assumption of insatiability with his sardonic description of conspicuous consumption, the social phenomenon that allows desire for consumption to inflate beyond any physical foundation,: and Keynes' notion of the "euthanasia of the rentier" also reflected the view that capital growth would eventually cease. 5 But explicit consideration of natural constraints on aggregate economic activity was largely absent from this literature. 9. outside economics, the early 20th century was marked by the emergence of grand integrating theories, conceptual schemes that regarded natural systems and the webs of knowledge and values determining human exploitation as a single, integrated whole. The Russian geologist Vernadsky formulated the notion of the Biospher,~ and the French paleontologist Teilhard de Chardin that of the Noosphere,: each reflecting the intimate coupling of human and natural processes in shaping the evolution of the earth. These notions, though presented less specifically and with slight differences of emphasis, anticipated Lovelock's Gaia hypothesis of the 1970. 8 These integrating concepts reintroduce linkages between 3 Principles of Political Economy, Vol 2, John Parker, London, 1857, p.320. The Theory of the Leisure Class, MacMillan, New YorK, 1857. 5 Keynes, J .M., General Theory of Employment Interest and Money, Harcourt, Brace and Jovanovich, 1964. See particularly Chapter 16, section 4 pp.221­222 and Concluding Notes, Chapter 24, Section 2, p.376. 6 Vernadsky, V. I ., "The Biosphere and the Noosphere", American Scientist, 33:1­12, 1945. . 7 La Phenomene Humaine, 1945. 8Lovelock, J .E., Gaia: A New Look at Life on Earth, Oxford University Press, New York 1979; Lovelock, J.E. and Margulis, L., "Atmospheric Homeostasis by and for the Biosphere: The Gaia Hypothesis", Tellus, 26, pp.l­l0; Serafin, Rafel, "Vernadsky's Biosphere, Teilhard' s No 0 sphere , and Lovelock's Gaia", IIASA 18 human and natural systems, explicitly as constraints. but do not express the 1inkages 10. The possibility of natural constraints on economic growth first re­entered public discourse after World War II. Concern was sharpest in the US, and was focused on shortages of physical raw materials, especially non­ferrous metals. Ths issue remained prominent for about ten years, prompted several high­level official and academic studies, 9 and receded from view for two reasons: most studies argued from historical patterns of declining real extraction cost, and from current evidence of substitutability, that materials shortages would not limit economic growth; 10 and public and political attention shifted to air and water pollution. 11. In the 1960s, the new issues of local air and water pollution spawned the environmental movement and a new collection of social criticism focusing on human­induced degradation of natural systems. The fountainhead of the movement was Rachel Carson's Silent Spring," which described the consequences of DDT spraying in the forests of New Brunswick. The movement coincided with the public emergence of the discipline of ecology, and made extensive use of analogies between ecological concepts and human activity. In particular, the concept of carrying capacity seemed a trump card in the debate over human population. 12 More recently, though, the concept has seemed of limited use for a sophisticated debate on sustainability of human systems, because it begs two fundamental questions: whether technical progress can continually increase the feasible human population; and whether considerations of quality of life, social stability, or justice dictate a preferred human Working Paper WP­87­96, october 1987. 9 US President's Materials Policy Commission, Resources for Freedom, 5 vols, US Govt Printing Office, Washington DC, 1952; Potter, Neal and Francis T. Christy, Trends in Natural Resource Commodities, Johns Hopkins Press for Resources for the FUture, Baltimore, 1962; Barnett, Harold J and Chandler Morse, Scarcity and Growth: The Economics of Natural Resource Availability, Johns Hopkins Press, Baltimore 1963. 10 The debate is reviewed in Burton, Ian and Robert Kates, "Slaying the Malthusian Dragon", Economic Geography 40, pp.82­89, 1964. . 11 Houghton Mifflin, Boston MA, 1962. 12 Ehrlich, Paul R. and Anne H, population. Resources « Environment: Issues in Human Ecology, Freeman, San Francisco 1972; Riddell, Robert, Ecodevelopment, st. Martin's Press, New York 1981; Tivy, J. and G. O'Hare, Human Impact on the Ecosystem, Oliver and Boyd, Edinburgh, 1982. 19 population well below the physical carrying capacity at any time13 • 12. The early 1970s saw the beginning of the global modelling movement, announced with the publication of The Limits to Growth'4, commissioned by the Club of Rome and undertaken at MIT. This work represented an expansion of view, to global scale and to simUltaneous consideration of pollution, resource, and food constraints, but no adaptive feedbacks were incorporated into the models. By assuming exponential growth in human numbers and activities, pressing against fixed resource constraints and unmitigated by technological change, economic adjustment, or value change, the modelers projected catastrophe and re­opened the debate on the human prospect that has proceeded since Malthus, Godwin, and Condorcet. Their work spawned an active and combatitive literature15 that finally suggested that the principal disagreements between modelers reflected different assumptions so basic -- the rate of decline in energy and materials inputs per unit of output, for example -- that models did not help to illuminate them. Even the central assumption of exponential human popUlation growth remains open to question. Deevey 16 has argued that in the long-run, human population shows long periods of stability punctuated by short intervals of exponential growth to a new equilibrium following major technical or social innovations. 13. The subsequent world modelling literature has became progressively more complex, with regionally disaggregated models17 13 "Rapid Population Growth and Human Carrying Capacity", World Bank staff Working Paper No. 690, 1984; Ophuls, W, Ecology and the Politics of scarcity, W.H.Freeman, San Francisco 1983. 14 Meadows, Donella H et aI, The Limits to Growth , Universe Books, New York 1972; Forrester, Jay, World Dynamics, Wright-Allen Press, Cambridge MA, 1971. 15 Cole, H.S.D. et aI, eds, Thinking About the Future: A Critigye of the Limits to Growth, Freeman, San Francisco 1973; Nordhaus, William, "World Dynamics: Measurement without Data", Economic Journal 1973; Greenberger, Martin, M.A.Crenson and B.L.Crissey, Models in the Policy Process, Russel Sage Foundation, New York 1976; United States Congress Office of Technology Assessment, Global Models, World Futures and Public Policy: A Critigye, US Government printing Office, Washington DC, April 1982. 16 Deevey, E. S. Jr, "The Human population", .Scientif ic American 203, September 1960. • • •. Mesarov1c, M.D. and E. Pestel, Mank1nd at the Turn1nQ P01nt, Dutton, New York 1977. 17 20 and progressively greater separation of sectors18 • Barney et al examined the implications of these models for Canada19 and drew conclusions of guarded optimism. Dobell and Kennedy summarized the field in the context of comprehensive economic models. 20 14. The debate over the possibility of continued growth sparked by the world modelling controversy prompted a re-opening of the same debate within economics, with the emergence of the "steady-state economics" literature. examining the behaviour of closed economic systems with resource, free energy, or entropy constraints. Principal figures in the field included Boulding, Georgescu-Roegen, Daly, and Ophuls. 21 While differing in emphasis, these writers shared two major views: the empirical one that due to immutable thermodynamic constraints, growth in the material scale of economic activity must eventually cease: and the normative one that this end to material expansion will more likely advance than retard human welfare. In this sense, they echo Mill's sentiments above: unlike Mill, they assert that the end of growth is near at hand. 18 US council on Environmental Quality, Global 2000 Report to the President, US Government Printing Office, Washington DC, 1980. 19 Barney, G.O., P.H.Freeman, and C.A.Ulinski, Global 2000: Implications for Canada, Pergamon Press, Toronto 1981. 20 Dobell, A.R. and B. Kennedy, "Global Futures and Canadian Prospects", in Economic Growth: Prospects and Determinants, Vol 22 of collected research studies, Royal Commission on the Economic Union and Development Prospects for Canada, University of Toronto Press, Toronto 1985. 21 Boulding, Kenneth E., tiThe Economics of the Coming spaceship Earth", in H. Jarrett, ed., Environmental Quality in a Growing Economy, Johns Hopkins Press, Baltimore, 1966: Boulding, "Economics and Ecology as special Cases of a General System", address to AAAS meeting on the common foundations of economics and ecology, Washington, D.C., January 1982: Georgescu-Roegen, N., The Entropy Law and the Economic Process, Harvard University Press, Cambridge MA, 1971: Daly, Herman E., Steady State Economics: The Economics of Biophysical Equilibrium and Moral Growth, Freeman, San Francisco, 1977: Daly, Herman E., tiThe Economic Growth Debate:What Some Economists Have Learned, but Many Have Not", Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 14, pp.323-336, 1987: Ophuls, Ecology and the Politics of Scarcity, Freeman, San Francisco, 1983. As well as economists taking up concepts from the natural sciences, ecologists have made widespread use of economic concepts. This literature is surveyed in David E. Rapport & James E. Turner, "Economic Models in Ecology", Science. 195, pp.367-373, 28 January 1977. 21 15. Others dissented. Simon and Kahn disputed the first assertion, arguing that technological progress in resource discovery, extraction, and substitution would render physical growth essentially limtes.~ Olson and Landsberg disputed the second, arguing that the end of physical growth would inevitably focus political dissent on the division of a fixed pie, and that the resultant battles would be bitter. 23 Kahn accepted both premises but disputed the timing, arguing that material growth would come to an end, but not for roughly 200 years, and that we are presently at the inflection point ~f the intervening logistic curve -- the point of most rapid growth. 4 It is tempting to speculate that, in Kahn's view, the time to steady-state might advance as time passes. The debate over steady-state economics has continued into the 1980s, but remains somewhat isolated from mainstream academic econmis.~ 16. Within mainstream academic economics, though, several areas of work continue to address questions relevant to global limits. An extensive literature has developed since mid-century on the exploitation of natural resources, both exhaustible and renewable. The analysis is typically at micro rather than macro scale. Hotelling led early work in the field,~ with his investigation of the optimal rate of depletion of an exhaustible resource such as a mine. Related results in renewable resources are also consistent with treating resources as capital assets like any other, and suggest a basic model of transforming an initial endowment of natural resources into an infinitely renewable stock of produced ~ Simon, Julian and Herman Kahn, eds, The Resourceful Earth, Basil Blackwell, Oxford 1984. 23 Olson, Mancur and H.H.Landsberg, eds, The No-Growth Society, Norton, New York 1973. ~ Kahn, H., W. Brown, and Leon Martel, The Next 200 Years: A Scenario for America and the World, Morrow, New York 1976. 2S Discussion of steady-state economics and sustainable growth has proceeded under the aegis of the Woodlands Conferences. Proceedings are published as Cleveland, Harlan, ed, The Management of sustainable Growth, Pergamon Press, New York 1981, and Coomer, J.C., Quest for a Sustainable Society, Pergamon Press, New York, 1981. = 26 Hotelling, H., "The Economics of Exhaustible Resources", Journal of Political Economy 39, pp.137-175, April 1931; weinstein, M. and R.J. Zeckhauser, "Use Patterns for Depletable and Recyclable Resources", Review of Economic Studies, 1974; Solow, Robert, "The Economics of Resources or the Resources of Economics", American Economic Review, May 1979, pp.1-14; Dasgupta, P.S. and G.M.Heal, Economic Theory and Exhaustible Resources, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge 1979. 22 physical capital. 17. From early work on market failure developed the literature on economics of the environment, which considers environmental effects as external costs causing departures from market optimality, and examines policy solutions that internalize the externality -corrective taxes, permits, or regulatory standards. 27 Coase's work suggested that under certain restrictive conditions, pollution would not cause departures from allocative optimality, but would simply redistribute wealth from the victims to the poluter.~ 18. There has been sharp controversy over the assumptions and the policy conclusions of these lines of research. Colin Clark pointed out that if resources are treated like any other capital asset, under certain conditions it would be optimal for the owner of a fishery to drive it to extinco.~ This possibility of permanent (possibly sudden) resource degradation is assumed away in the standard economic formulation, but may be the most common situation in the real world. 30 The substitutability between natural and created resources also remains the subject of sharp academic and political controversy. 31 27 Bator, F.M., "The Anatomy of Market Failure", Quarterly Journal of Economics 72, pp.351-379, 1958: Pigou, A.C., ~ Economics of Welfare, Macmillan, London 1962; Baumol, W.J. and W. E. oates, The Theory of Environmental policy, Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs NJ, 1975; Dales, John H., Pollution. Property. and prices, University of Toronto Press, Toronto 1968. 2S Coase, Robert H, "The Problem of Social Cost", Journal of Law and Economics 3, pp.1-14, Oct 1960. ~ Clark, Colin W, "The Economics of OVerexploitation", Science 181, pp.630-634; Clark, C.W., "Profit Maximization and the Extinction of Animal species", Journal of Political Economy 81, pp.950-961, 1973. 30 catton, W.R., OVershoot: The Ecological Basis of Revolutionary Change, University of Illinois Press, Urbana IL, 1982; Holling, C.S., "Resilience and stability of Ecological Systems", Annual Review of Ecology and systematics 4, pp.1-23, 1973. 31 A current example can be found in the recent report of the National Task Force on Environment and Economy, which concluded that our obligation to our descendents is to leave them an undegraded environment and resource base, or equivalent consumption possibilities in the form of created wealth. Whether, in a world of profound uncertainty, non-malleable capital, and irreversible change, this prospect of turning a diverse pool of biological and genetic capital into an equivalent stock of produced capital is at 23 19. Work in resource economics has also shown the fundamental importance of the institutional arrangements by which a resource is manaqed, and the manner of allocating property rights. 32 An early result was that a common-property resource is always overexploited; subsequent work has focused on attempts to find management institutions and policies that duplicate the optimality achieved by sole ownership. 20. In public economics, the discipline of Benefit-Cost Analysis has been developed to address social decisions that cannot be guided directly by markets." The crucial questions of the field include how to assign values to non-marketed environmental and resource amenits~, how society should trade off present against future interests35 and how to incorporate the possibility of all realistic obviously remains a highly debatable question. 32 Gordon, H.Scott, "The Economic Theory of a Common-Property Resource: The Fishery", Journal of Political Economy 62, April 1954, pp. 124-142; Scott, Anthony, "The Fishery: The Objective of Sole ownership", Journal of Political Economy 63, April 1955, pp.116-124; Clark, Colin W., Mathematical Bioeconomics, Wiley-Interscience, New York 1976; Hardin, Garrett, "The Tragedy of the Commons", Science, 162, pp.1243-1248; Peter Pearse works on forest economics. 33 Pearce, D. W., Cost-Benefit Analysis, 2nd edition, Macmillan, London 1983. ~ Porter, R. C, "The New Approach to Wilderness Preservation Through Benefit-Cost Analysis", Journal of Environmental Economics and Management 9, pp.59-80, 1982; Pearce, D.W, "The Limits of Cost-Benefit Analysis as a Guide to Environmental Policy", Kyklos 29:1, pp. 97-112, 1976; Krutilla, J.V. and A.C. Fisher, ~ Economics of Natural Environments: Studies in the Valuation of Commodity and Amenities Resources, Johns Hopkins University Press and Resources for the Future, Baltimore 1975; Crabbe, Philippe J., "Option Value and Quasi-option Value of Natural Resources", in Gaudet, G. and P.Lasserre, eds, Ressources Naturelles et Theorie Economigue, Presses de l'Universite Laval, Quebec, 1986. Ramsey, F.P., "A Mathematical Theory of Savings", Economic Journal 38, pp.543-559, 1928; Marglin, stephen, "The Social Rate of Discount and the Optimal Rate of Investment", Quarterly Journal of Economics 77, pp.95-111, 1963; Lind, R.C. et aI, Discounting for Time and Risk in Energy Policy, Johns Hopkins University Press, Baltimore 1982; Page, Talbot, Conservation and Economic Efficiency, Johns Hopkins University Press, Baltimore 1977. 35 24 irreversible effects into social decision rules36 • The problems of trading off present against future interests become even more difficult when the time span is lon~ enough that it concerns the interests of generations yet unborn. 7 21. To clarify these matters, it is necessary to move behind simple assumptions of how people form values and make decisions, and ask how they trade off future against present interests, weigh others' interests against their own, perceive the boundaries of the groups with whom they share common interests, and view their community's relation to the natural environment. To investigate these questions, active literatures have developed in how people perceive their environment and how they assess environmental risks;38 in how attitudes toward the environment are shaped by culture and evolve through history;39 in how conflicts over 36 Arrow, K.J. and A.C.Fisher, "Environmental Preservation, Uncertainty, and Irreversibility", Quarterly Journal of Economics 88, pp.312-319, 1974; Miller, J.R. and F. Lad, "Flexibility, Learning, and Irreversibility in Environmental Decision: A Bayesian Approach", Journal of Environmental Economics and Management 11, pp.161-172, 1984; Ayres, Robert U. and Manalur S.Sandilya, "utility Maximization and Catastrophe Aversion: A simulation Test", Journal of Environmental Economics and Management 14, pp.337-370, 1987. 37 Solow, R.M., "Intergenerational Equity and Exhaustible Resources", Review of Economic Studies, Symposium, 1974; Sen, A.K., "On Optimizing the Rate of Saving", Economic Journal 71: 283, pp.478-496, 1961; Macpherson, C.B., ed, Property: Mainstream and Critical Positions, University of Toronto Press, Toronto, 1978; Becker, G.S. and N.Tomes, "An Equilibrium Theory of the Distribution of Income and Intergenerational Mobility", Journal of Political Economy 87, pp.1153-1189, December 1979. 38 Saarinen, T., et al (eds), Environmental Perception and Behavior: An Inventory and Prospect, Dept of Geography Research Paper No. 209, University of Chicago, 1984; Whyte, Anne, "Guidelines for Field Studies in Environmental Perception", Man and Biosphere Technical Note No.5, UNESCO and SCOPE: Fischhoff, B. et aI, Acceptable Risk, Cambridge University Press, New York 1981: Kahneman, E., P. Slovic and A. Tversky, eds, Judgement Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases, Cambridge University Press, New York 1982. 39 White, Lynn, "The Historical Roots of Our Ecological Crisis", Science 155, pp.1203-1207, 1967: Hargrove, Eugene, "The Historical Foundations of American Environmental Attitudes", Environmental Ethics, 1979: Sessions, George: "Anthropocentrism and the Environmental Crisis", Humboldt Journal of Social Relations, 1974: Douglas, Mary, and Aaron Wildavsky , Risk and CUlture, University of California Press, Berkeley CA, 1982: 25 environmental issues align with traditional dimensions of political conflict over distribution and values;40 and in how legal principles can best reflect changing notions of environmental value and the conflicts among people that they engender. 41 Part 3: Areas of current active researcb 22. Recent work on global change and sustainable development has been characterized by several themes: first, there has been a series of landmark works intended to integrate broad streams of research and move the environment/development questions into the policy arena. The most prominent recent examples have been the World Conservation Straegy,~ and the report of the World Commission on Environment and Devlopmnt.~ These represent both research efforts and policy efforts, and have been associated with formal organizational review processes leading to further work.~ Moncrieff, Lewis, "The CUltural Basis of Our Environmental crisis", Science 170, pp.508-512, October 30, 1970. 40 Morrison, Denton E and Riley E. Dunlap, "Is Environmentalism Elitist", in F.H.BUttel and C.R.Humphrey, eds, Environment and Society, Penn State University Press, University Park PA, 1985. 41 Emond, D. Paul, "Environmental Law and Policy: A Retrospective Examination of the Canadian Experience", in Consumer Protection« Environmental Law « and Corporate Power, Vol 50 of background studies for Royal Commission on the Economic union and Development Prospects for Canada, University of Toronto Press, Toronto 1985; Caldwell, Lynton, "Rights of Ownership or Rights of Use: The Need for a New Conceptual Basis of Land Use Policy", William and Mary Law Review, 1974; Tribe, Lawrence et aI, eds, When Values Conflict, Ballinger, Cambridge MA, 1976: Tribe, Lawrence and L.Jaffe, eds, Environmental Protection, Bracton, 1971. 42 International Union for the Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources, World Conservation Strategy: Living Resource Conservation for sustainable Development, Gland Switzerland, 1980 • .~ united Nations World commission on Environment and Development, Our Common Future, Oxford University Press, New York 1987. ~ Following the World Conservation strategy have been the publication of Jacobs, P. and D. Monroe, eds, Conservation with Equity: strategies for sustainable Development, Canadian Department of Environment, ottawa, 1987: and Francis R. Thibodeau and R. Field, eds, Sustaining Tomorrow, University Press of New England, Hanover 1984. A formal process of international meetings and review is now underway for the World Commission on Environment and 26 23. In addition to these high-profile, official projects, there have been several ambitious inter-disciplinary research exercises under academic auspices. Examples include the IIASA project sustainable Development of the Biospher1~ the 1987 Dahlem Conference on Resources and World oevelopment;46 the us Social Sciences Research Council report on Forecasting in the Natural and Social sciences;47 and the 1987 Clark University symposium, "The Earth as Transformed by Human Action".~ 24. Among the ongoing research work with a more narrow disciplinary focus, there are several salient research themes. Defining sustainability is an essential task because of the term's widespread and often inconsistent use in policy debates; several efforts are underway.~ Closely related are efforts to broaden the definition of economic well-being to embrace non-marketed goods, distribution, and concern for the future, 50 and attempts to include natural resource and environmental measures in national accounts51 Development, under UN auspices. ~ Clark, W.C. and R.E.Munn, eds, Sustainable Development of the Biosphere, Cambridge University Press, New York 1986. 46 McLaren, D.J. and B.J. Skinner, eds, Resources and World Development, Dahlem Workshop Report, Wiley, Chichester, 1987. 47 Land, K.C. and S.H. Schneider, eds, Forecasting in the Natural and Social Sciences, Reidel, Dordrecht 1987. ~ Turner, B.L. et aI, eds, The Earth as Transformed by Human Action, proceedings of a symposium at Clark University, oct 25-30 1987, forthcoming from Cambridge University Press. 49 Becky J. Brown, Mark E.Hanson, et aI, "Global Sustainability: Toward Definition", Environmental Management 11:6, 1987, pp 713-719; Harvey Brooks and Charles Kidd are preparing a collection of papers for AAAS discussing whether a value-free definition of sustainability is possible. 50 Osberg, Lars, "The Idea of Economic Well-Being", Working Paper 86-01, Dalhousie University Dept of Economics; Osberg, Lars, "The Measurement of Economic Well-Being", in Vol 26 of Collected Research Studies, Royal Commission on Development Prospects and the Economic Union, Toronto, 1985; Atkinson, A.B., Social Justice and Public Policy, MIT Press, Cambridge MA, 1983; OECD List of Social Indicators, Paris, June 1982. 51 Friend, Anthony M., "Natural Resource Accounting and its Relationship to Economic and Environmental Accounting", Statistics Canada Discussion Paper, September 1986; Drechler, L., "Problems of Recording Environmental Phenomena in National Accounting 27 A particularly difficult problem in defining sustainability internationally is assessing the implications for sustainabilit, of the resource depletion or pollution embodied in trade flows. 5 25. Adaptation, Resilience, and Surprise: In contrast to the early view of ecosystems as precariously balanced at fragile equilibria, Holling first developed the notion of ecosystem resilience and stabily.~ This work has provided a powerful organizing concept for research in techniques for management of natural systems, 54 and for thinking about complex dynamic systems with both human and Aggregates", Review of Income and Wealth 22, pp.239-252, 1976; Herfindahl, O. C. and A. V• Kneese, "Measuring Social and Economic Change: Benefits and Costs of Environmental Pollution", in M. Moss, ed, The Measurement of Economic Performance, Studies in Income and Wealth No. 38, National Bureau of Economic Research, 1973; Ward, M., "Accounting for the Depletion of Natural Resources in the National Accounts of Developing countries", Development centre, OECD, Paris, 1982; Weber, J-L, "The French National Patrimony Accounts" , statistical Journal of the united Nations, ECE 1, pp. 419-444; Wells, Michael P., "Economic Accounting for Natural Resource-Based. Economies: Measuring the Costs of Resource Depletion", unpublished manuscript, University of British Columbia, April 1987. 52 Walter, Ingo, "Environmental Resource costs and the Patterns of North-South Trade", paper prepared for the World Commission on Environment and Development, 1986; Rubin, Seymour J. and Thomas R. Graham, eds, Environment and Trade:The Relation of International Trade and Environmental Policy, Allanheld Osmun, Totowa NJ, 1982; "Interdependence", note by the Secretariat to the Group on North-South Issues, OECD, Paris, November 1982. 53 Holling, C.S., "Resilience and Stability of Ecosystems",---= Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics 4, pp.1-23, 1973. 54 Holling, ed, Adaptive Environmental Assessment and Management, Wiley, Chichester UK, 1978; Walters, C.J. and R. Hilborn, "Ecological Optimization and Adaptive Management", Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics 9, pp.157-188, 1978; Walters, C, Adaptive Management of Renewable Resources, Macmillan, New York, 1986; Beanlands, G.E. and P.N. Duinker, "An Ecological Framework for Environmental Impact Assessment in Canada", Institute for Resource and Environmental Studies, Dalhousie University, Halifax, 19831 Environmental and Social Systems Analysis Ltd, "Review and Assessment of Adaptive Environmental Assessment and Management", Environment Canada, Vancouver, 1982; Toth, Ferenc L, "Systems Methods for Environmental Management", draft working paper, IIASA, 1988. 28 natural components. 55 26. Bnviro~etal ethics: There is a thriving body of research on the ethical foundations of decision-making affecting environment and development. In part this consists of ethical critique of the decision methods advocated by economists, such as Benefit-Cost Analysis;56 in part it consists of attempts to broaden the range of ethical discourse beyond the point where the environment simply represents a vehicle for mediating ethical obligations among human beings, to vest ethical standing either in other living things or in whole ecosystems. 51 27. There are several active lines of research in the influence of CUlture and Values on people's behaviour toward the environment. Some examine the roots of present behaviour and policy in our western cultural heritag~, and the role of different individuals' 55 Holling, "The Resilience of Terrestrial Ecosystems: Local Surprise and Global Change", in Clark and Munn, eds, sustainable Development of the Biosphere, Cambridge, 1986; Brooks, Harvey, "The Typology of Surprises in Technology, Institutions, and Development", in Clark and Munn, op.cit. 56 Alasdair Macintyre, "utilitarianism and Cost-Benefit Analysis: An Essay on the Relevance of Moral Philosophy to Bureaucratic Theory", in Kenneth Sayre ed, Values in the Electric Power Industry; Page, Talbot, "Intergenerational Justice as Opportunity", in Maclean, D and Peter Brown, eds, Energy and the Future, Rowman and Littlefield, Totawa NJ, 1983; Kneese, Allen V., S. Ben-David and W.D.Schulze, "The Ethical Foundations of Cost-Benefit Analysis", in Maclean and Brown eds, op.cit. 51 John Cobb, "Ecology, Ethics, and Theology", in Daly, H (ed), Towards a Steadv-State Economy, Freeman, San Francisco 1973; Scherer, Donald and Richard Attig, Ethics and the Environment, Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs NJ, 1983; Blackstone, W., (ed), Philosophy and the Environmental Crisis, University of Georgia Press, 1974; Naess, Arne, "The Shallow and the Deep, Long-Range Ecological Movement", Inquiry, 1973; Regan, Thomas, "The Nature and Possibility of an Environmental Ethic", Environmental Ethics, 1981; Livingstone, David, The Fallacy of Wildlife Conservation; ShraderFrechette, K.S., Environmental Ethics, Boxwood Press, Pacific Grove, CA, 1983 58 Passmore, John, Man's Responsibility for Nature: Ecological Problems and Western Traditions, Scribners, New York 1974; Leiss, William, The Domination of Nature, Beacon Press, Boston 1972. 29 value systems in environmental disputes1 59 some consider how other cuIture and value systems may engender different environmental behaviour, and investigate how modern environmental movements have drawn on other cultural heritags;~ Two particularly promising lines of research are on the relationship between value s~tem and resource management in aboriginal or native societies, 1 and the implications of feminist work on values and gender. Q 28. With respect to the first line of development, it has been arqued, for example, that the Iroquois Nations possessed a constitution based on the principle of government "of the people, by the people, for the people and for qenerations yet unborn" (emphasis added). This concern is expressed in the words of an Indian leader known as the Peacemaker, the founder of the Iroquois Confederacy, who is quoted as saying "Think not forever of yourselves, 0 chiefs, nor of your own generation. Think of continuing generations of our families, think of our grandchildren and of t~ose yet unborn, whose faces are coming from beneath the ground. n In adopting a constitutional structure based on this model, with which they were thoroughly familiar, the framers of the American constitution unfortunately opted, it appears, for a structure of property rights leaving no room for the fourth, and key, element. 29. The principle of stewardship underlying the special relationship with the land which is said to quide native peoples in southern Canada and the Inuit peoples in the North, reflects this same emphasis on future generations. As Osberg points out, the addition of terminal conditions of this sort would force an 59 O'Riordan, T., "What Does sustainability Really Mean", paper for the CEED Conference on Sustainable Develop1:llent in an Industrial Economy, 1985. ~ Deloria, Vine, God is Red, Grossett, New York 1973; Nash, Roderick, Wilderness and the American Mind, Yale University Press, New Haven 1977; Birch, Charles and John Cobb, The Liberation of Nature, Cambridge University Press, New York 1981. 61 N.M.Williams and E.S.Hunn, eds, Resource Managers: North American and Australian Hunter-Gatherers, Westview Press, Boulder, 1982. Q Ruether, Rosemary, New Women. New Earth, seabury Press, New York 1975. ~ Quoted in National Geographic, 172 No 3, Sept 1987, p.375. A similar emphasis on the responsibilities of stewardship and the obligation to preserve the national endowments inherited by a community is described in several studies of Inuit and Northern communities. 30 approach to the valuation of environmental assets quite different from that in the usual models of economic growth or cost-benefit analysis. 64 30. The second prom1s1ng line of research has been the work undertaken on values and gender. This area of research may be broken down into two sections: gender and development; and feminist work on values and the environment, also known as eco-feminism. Theories of qender and development began with work in the 1970's by Esther Boserup who examined the sexual division of labour in developing natios~. Boserup's study was the catalyst for a great deal of work on qender and development theory. This work has focussed primarily on the political economy of women, and attempts to enhance cur~t development theories by taking into account feminist theory. 31. Gender and development research has prompted a great deal of emphasis on women in national policy-making, and gender has become the focus of many national and international organizations. The Canadian International Development organization (CIDA) has held women in development as a priority since 198467 • The Indian organization Development Al ternatives for Women in a New Era (DAWN) has been one of the most influential international development organizations because it explores global change from the perspective of Third World women, and offers long-term policy proposals, many of which are closely related to sustainable 64 Davidson, A. and M. Dence (eds.), The Brundtland Challenge and the Cost of Inaction, Institute for Research on Public Policy and Royal Society of Canada, ottawa, 1988. 65 McFarland, Joan, "Review Essay: The Construction of Women and Development Theory", Canadian Review of Sociology and Anthropology, 25:2, pp.299-308, 1988; Boserup, Esther, women's Role in Economic Development, st. Martin's Press, New York, 1970. M Beneria, Lourdes (ed.) Women and Development: The Sexual Division of Labour in Rural Societies, Praeger I.L.O., New York, 1982; Buvinic, Mayra, M.A. Lycette, and W.P. McGreevey (eds.), Women and Poverty in the Third World, Johns Hopkins, Baltimore, 1983; Sen, Gita and Lourdes Beneria, "Accumulation, Reproduction, and Women's Role in Economic Development: Boserup Revisited", Signs, 7, pp.278-298. 67 McAllister, Elizabeth, Managing the Process of Change: Women in Development, Presentation to Presidents' Committee, policy Bra nch, CIDA, 1984. 31 development68 Two of the best-known Third World women's environmental projects are the Women's Chipco movement in India, in which over 35,000 women are planting trees, and the Green Belt movement in Kenya, whose goal is also to save trees. ~"1 32. Recent feminist work on women's ecological values has been named eco-feminisJI. This theory found root when feminist academics began to develop interdisciplinary analytical tools which had a global persctiv~. By way of this cross-disciplinary approach, many feminist writers have turned to an analysis of value systems: the contrast between the way in which men manage the environment, and women's attitUdes towards the environment70 • This has led logically to the study of women's values and attitudes towards the earth, and the way in which women manage resources. Eco-feminism proposes that women are closer to the earth; that to them, the earth is sacred; that they consider future generations and thus have a long-term attitude towards environmental management; and that women are more practical in their ecological philosophy • Clearly, it is important to consider feminist theories, both in terms of gender and development theory and eco-feminism, as they offer policy-makers an alternative approach to coping with global change and the notion of sustainability. 68 DAWN, Development. Crises and Alternative Visions: Third World Women's Perspectives, written by Gita Sen and Caren Grown, New Delhi, 1985. ~ McCalla Vickers, Jill, "Memoirs of an Ontological Exile: The Methodological Rebellions of Feminist Research", in Feminism in Canada: From Pressure to Politics, G. Finn and A. Miles (eds.), Black Rose Books, Montreal, 1982. 70 spretnak, C. (ed.) The Politics of Women's spirituality, Doubleday, New York, 1981; Dankleman, I. and Davidson, J. Women and the Environment in the Third World, Earthscan, U.K., 1988; Griffin, Susan, Women and Nature: The Roaring Inside Her, Harper and RoW, New York, 1978, and Made From This Earth: An Anthology of Writings, Harper and ROw, New York, 1983; for an historical approach to women's values in environmental management, see Riata Eisler's The Chalice and the Blade, Harper and ROW, San Francisco, 1987. 71 Merchant, Carolyn, The Death of NatUre: Women, Ecology, and the Scientific Revolution, Harper & ROW, San Francisco, 1980; Henderson, Hazel, "The Warp and the Weft: The Coming Synthesis of Eco-Philopsophy and Eco-Feminism", Development: Seeds of Change, 4, pp. 64-68, 1984 i Witte Garland, Ann, Women Activists: Challenging the Abuse of Power, Feminist Press, New York, 1988; Starhock, Dreaming the Dark: Magic. Sex and Politics, Beacon Press, Boston, 1982. 32 33. Research on institutional models for sustainable resource management embraces several active lines. There is still an active literature on institutional solutions to common-property resource problems72 • other lines of work include the relation between division of powers in a federal system and the spatial scale of environmental phenoma~; co-operatives and the design of institutions to facilitate co-operation74 , structures to support citizen participation in decison-makg~, and the application of existing legal and diplomatic institutions to address international environmental problems. 76 Ostrom, Elinor, "The Commons and Collective Action", 72 preliminary draft manuscript presented to the Program in Political Economy, Harvard University, April 1988; cynthia Lamson and Arthur J. Hanson, eds, Atlantic Fisheries and Coastal Communities: Fisheries Decision-Making Case studies, Dalhousie Ocean Studies Programme, Halifax, 1984; McKay, Bonnie J, "A Fisherman's Cooperative: Indigenous Resource Management in a Complex Society", Anthropological Quarterly 53:1, January 1980, pp. 29-38; stillman, Peter G, "The Tragedy of the Commons: A Reanalysis", Alternatives 4:2, 1975, pp. 12-15; Vincent Ostrom, David Feeny, and Hartmut Picht, eds, Rethinking Institutional Analysis and Development: Some Issues, Alternatives, and Choices, Institute for Contemporary Studies, San Francisco, 1988. ~ MacNeill, J.W., Environmental Management, Constitutional study prepared for the Privy Council Office, Government of Canada, January 1971; Schwab, James "Environmental Federalism", Resources, Resources for the Future, Washington DC, Spring 1988. 74 McPherson, G.R.I., Building and protecting the cooperative Movement, Cooperative Union of Canada, Ottawa 1984; Axelrod, R., "The Emergence of cooperation Among Egoists", American Political Science Review 75:2, June 1981, pp. 306-318; Axelrod, R., The Evolution of Cooperation, Basic Books, New York 1984; Braybrooke, David, "The Insoluble Problem of the Social Contract" in Richmond Campbell and Lanning Sowden, eds, Paradoxes of Rationality and Cooperation, University of British Columbia Press, Vancouver, 1985, pp. 277-305. ~ Albert E.Utton, W.R.Derrick Sewell, T.O'Riordan, eds, Natural Resources for a Democratic Society: Public Participation in Decision-Making, Westview Special Studies on Natural Resources Management, Boulder, 1976. 76 Schneider, Jan, World Public Order of the Environment: Towards an International Ecological Law and Organization, University of Toronto Press, Toronto 1979; Ramakrishna, Kilaparti, Steps Toward an International Convention for Stabilizing the Greenhouse Gas Composisiton of the Atmosphere, draft report of Woods Hole Research Center, Program on Global Environmental Issues, 33 34. Current research on policy exercises and gaming grew in part from earlier military work on War Games. The goal is the same: to study interactive decisions in complex situations, in which ¥,articipants may have different perceptions, interests, and values• A particularly interesting form is the writing of "future histories" to investigate ranges of plausible scenarios outside those normally consideredn . 35. Finally, there is a thriving body of current research on comprehensive inter­disciplinary studies at regional scale. A particularly interesting example for integrated regional studies is the Great Lakes, because of the insights it offers into rehabilitation of degraded ecosystems. N Another approach of great Woods Hole MA, September 1988; Bjorkbom, Lars, "Resolution of Environmental Problems: Use of Diplomacy", Swedish Ministry of Foreign Affairs, 1985; Carroll, John E, ed, Pollution Across Borders: Acid Rain ­ Acid Diplomacy, University of New Hampshire, 1984; Emond, D. Paul, "Environmental Law and Policy: A Retrospective Examination of the Canadian Experience", in Consumer Protection« Environmental Law « and Corporate Power, Vol 50 of background studies for Royal Commission on the Economic Union and Development Prospects for Canada, University of Toronto Press, Toronto 1985; Singh, Nagendra, "Right to Environment and Sustainable Development as a Principle of International Law", presentation to conference on Constitutional Law, Laval University of Quebec, 2 october 1987; Legal Experts of the WCED, Protection of Environment and Sustainable Development, Martinus Nijhoff, 1987; Carroll, John E., Environmental Diplomacy: An Examination and a Prospective of Canadian­US Transboundary Environmental Relations, University of Michigan Press for C.D.Howe Institute, Ann Arbor 1983. 77 Brewer, G.D., "Methods for Synthesis: Policy Exercises", in Clark and Munn, eds, sustainable Development of the Biosphere; Toth, F.L., "Practicing the Future", Parts 1 and 2, WP­86­23 and WP­88­12, IIASA; Duke, R.D. and C.S. Greenblat, Principles and Practices of Gaming­Simulation, Sage, Beverly Hills CA, 1981. n Svedin, Uno and Britt Aniansson, eds, Surprising Futures, Swedish Council for Planning and Coordination of Research, Stockholm 1987. N Regier.H. and G. Baskerville, "Sustainable Redevelopment of Regional Ecosystems Degraded by Exploitative Development", in Clark and Munn, eds, sustainable Development of the Biosphere; Regier et aI, "Ecosystem Comparison of the Great Lakes and the Baltic", Ambio 17:2, 1988; Rapport,D.J., H.A. Regier, and C. Thorpe, "Diagnosis, Prognosis, and Treatment of Ecosystems Under Stress", in G.W. Barrett and R. Rosenberg, eds, Stress Effects on 34 promise is the reconstruction of regional environmental histories. 80 Part 4, CUrrent xnstitutional Research projects 36. At present, there are several projects underway internationally to develop a social science research agenda to address global environmental change. A number of these projects have published statements of their proposed research focus. Their proposed major areas of research are summarized here. 37. The International Federation of Institutes of Advanced study (IFIAS) is developing a program entitled "The Human Response to Global change". 81 This proposed international program of Social Science research on Global Change would parallel the Natural Science effort proceeding under IGBP. The proposal document suggests five principal research themes: Global risk assessment; Analysis of complex systems: Needs of the most vulnerable; Environmental History; and Data Requirements. 38. In the united States, the National Research Council (the American participant in IGBP) has struck a "Human Response" Committee as one of its four area committees. The committee's draft report proposes five research areas: population, development, and land use change; "Industrial Metabolism", the technological sources of global change; Integrated risk assessments for global change; Making research on global change more useful for the management of sustainable development; and Documenting the human dimensions of global change. 82 Natural Ecosystems, Wiley, New York 1981. 80 Flader, S.L., ed, The Great Lakes Forest, an Environmental and Social History; Ayres, R.U. and S.R. Rod, "Reconstructing an Environmental History: Patterns of Pollution in the Hudson-Raritan Basin", Environment 28:4, pp.14-20, 1986. . 81 Human Response to Global Change: Prospectus for an International Programme, International Federation of Institutes for Advanced Study, Toronto, June 1988. 82 William C.Clark, The Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change, draft report for us National Research Council's Committee on Global Change, August 1988. 35 39. The May 1988 Chinese-US Workshop on the human dimensions of global environmental change~ articulated three research themes: the Social Dimensions of Resource Use, including studies of demographics and migration, the determinants and impacts of long-term changes in land and water use, and elaborating environmenta1 benefit-cost analysis; the Assessment and Perception of Environmental Change, including risk assessment, perception and knowledge, attitudes, and behaviour; and the Impact of Institutional Mechanisms on the Environment, including within-country and across-country comparative studies of the determinants and effectiveness of institutions for environmental management. 40. The US Social Science Research Council 84 has proposed a research program to consist of four sub-projects: The social forces provoking earth transformation (demography, technology, r1s1ng human productivity, rising expectations, and worldwide commercial interactions) ; Social Feedback and Response (impacts of institutions, political systems, shared values); Vulnerability and Resilience of Affected populations; and Monitoring Systems and Data Bases. 41. In December 1987, a workshop was held at Ann Arbor on an International Social science Research Program on Global change85 The workshop's report stated that the socia1 science agenda should follow the issue agenda that the natural scientists have set, and articulated four broad areas of research: demography; surveys of . human attitudes and behaviour; industrial metabolism; and human response and control mechanisms. 42. The striking characteristic of these institutional research agendas is that they all state essentially the same set of research themes: institutions, demography and land use, values and culture, technology, and data collection. This unanimity suggests that the most fruitfu1 research opportunities will lie within these areas. 83 Xiaoyan, Tang and Harold K. Jacobsen, Summary Report. Chinese-US Workshop on the Human Dimensions·of Global Environmental Change, Beijing, 12-16 May, 1988. 84 Social science Research Council, report of April 29-30 1988 meeting on interactions of people with nature, Providence. M Jacobsen, Harold K. and Cheryl Shanks, report of the Ann Arbor Workshop, Institute for social Research, University of Michigan, 22 December 1987. 36 TABLE OF CONTENTS I. Conceptual Framework II. Literature Survey III. 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