Export Entry and Exit by German Firms

.!VNi| .A|i+ BAa .!| O+ Dji6BA 8i6t  4 W?|hL_U|L? t | tiih@* T@t| iTtL_itc |i hiUi?| T|U! ? |i Mt?itt U)U*i ? Bih 4@?) @TTi@ht |L Mi _hi? *@h}i*) M) i TLh|t `*i Bih4@? B# ?Uhi@ti_ M) HI Tih )i@h uhL4 bb |L bb.c Bih4@? i TLh|t ?Uhi@ti_ .fI Tih )i@h Lih |i t@4i TihL_c @UUL?|?} uLh @** |i ?Uhi@ti ? @}}hi}@|i L|T| | |i t@4i |4ic *i i U@?}i h@|it | L|ih ,hLTi@? ?@|L?t ihi hi* @|i*) t|@M*i ? @_@?Ui Lu |i i TiU|i_ @_LT|L? Lu 4L?i|@h) ?L?c L? @ |h@_ii}|i_ M@tt |i 4@h! @t _iThiU@|?}c M) SI uhL4 a@?@h) bbD |L a@?@h) bbH Ai _iU*?i @}@?t| |i _L**@h @t tMt|@?|@**) *@h}ihc .I Lih |i t@4i TihL_ AL ?_iht|@?_ L 4U Lu |i i TLh| E@?_ L|T| }hL| @t _hi? M) |iti i U@?}i h@|i 4Li4i?|tc i 4t| €ht| ?_iht|@?_ |i hitTL?tit Lu Bih4@? €h4t |L i |ih?@* tLU!t W? |t T@Tih i ti @ ?^i *L?}|_?@* _@|@ ti| uLh @ *@h}i ?4Mih Lu 4@?u@U|h?} it|@M*t4i?|t ? Bih4@?) |L _i4L?t|h@|i @| €h4 U@h@U|iht|Ut @hi 4 TLh|@?| uLh i TLh| i?|h) @?_ |L ?it|}@|i |i 4@}?|_i Lu |i t?! ULt|t Lu t|@h|?} |L i TLh| w@h}i U@?}it ? i U@?}i h@|it @hi )TL|it3i_ |L @i t}?€U@?| iu uiU|t L? |i |h@_i Lt Lu @ UL?|h) OLiihc |i |4?} @?_ 4@}?|_i Lu |iti U@?}it ? |i tLh| h? @hi ? T@h| _i|ih4?i_ M) |i @M*|) Lu €h4t |L @_t| |ih L|T| ? hitTL?ti |L |i U@?}it ? hi*@|i ThUit }}hi}@|i L|T| U@?}it hit*| uhL4 |L hi*@|i_ M| _t|?U| @U||it M) €h4t 6ht|c i t|?} i TLh|iht U@? ?Uhi@ti |ih i TLh| ?|i?t|) At 4@) hit*| i|ih uhL4 @ hi_hiU|L? Lu L|T| _it|?i_ uLh |i _L4it|U 4@h!i| |L uLhi}? Ut|L4iht Lh uhL4 @? Lih@** ?Uhi@ti ? ThL_U|L? ULT*i_ | @? i T@?tL? Lu i TLh|t Ai @*|ih?@|i 4iU@?t4 uLh |i i TLh| hitTL?ti t |hL} i?|h) Lu i t|?} Lh ?i €h4t ?|L |i i TLh| 4@h!i| W? |t T@Tih i i @4?i |t *@||ih U@??i* Lu i?|h) ?|L |i i TLh| 4@h!i| `i UL?t_ih @| €h4 U@h@U|iht|Ut @hi 4TLh|@?| uLh i?|h) @t i** @t |i 4@}?|_i Lu |i t?! ULt|t Lu t|@h|?} i TLh|?} Ai hL*i Lu i TLh|?} iUL?L4U TihuLh4@?Ui @?_ iUL?L4U }hL| ? T@h |U*@h @t Mii? @ |LTU Lu hiti@hU uLh 4@?) )i@ht W? hiUi?| )i@htc |i @_i?| Lu *@h}i 4UhLiUL?L4U _@|@ ti|t uLh @ @hi|) Lu UL?|hitc ML| _ii*LTi_ @?_ *itt_ii*LTi_c @t *i_ |L @ hith}i?Ui Lu Lh! @||i4T|?} |L ?_ih t|@?_ |i U@t@* ?@|hi Mi|ii? i TLh|?} @?_ €h4 TihuLh4@?Ui ih?@h_ @?_ ai?ti? EbbH tL |@| N5 i TLh|iht @i u@t|ih t@*it @?_ i4T*L) 4i?| }hL| |@? ?L?i TLh|iht ? |i t@4i ?_t|h) M| _L ?L| @i u@t|ih .!VNi| .A|i+ BAa .!| O+ Dji6BA 8i6t 5 ThL_U||) }hL| Ai) @*tL €?_ |@| |ihi @hi *@h}i i @?|i @_@?|@}it ? |ih4t Lu ML| }hL| h@|it @?_ *ii*t uLh u|hi i TLh|iht ih?@h_ @?_ `@}?ih Ebb. t|_) |i hi*@|L?tT Mi|ii? €h4 tUUitt @?_ i TLh|?} ? Bih4@? T*@?|t @?_ @*tL €?_ |@| } ThL_U||)c *@h}i €h4t @hi 4Lhi *!i*) |L MiUL4i i TLh|iht i @?|i M| _L ?L| L|TihuLh4 ?L?i TLh|iht @u|ih i?|h) W? @ t@4T*i Lu |hii _ii*LT?} UL?|hitc *ih_itc w@Uc @?_ A)ML| Ebb. @*tL €?_ |@| i TLh|?} _Lit ?L| *Lih @ih@}i @h@M*i ULt| hi*@|i |L ?L?i TLh|iht Ai) @*tL €?_ tL4i i_i?Ui |@| *L ULt| €h4t @hi 4Lhi *!i*) |L i?|ih Ai *|ih@|hi L? i TLh|?} @?_ €h4 TihuLh4@?Ui @t @*tL UL?t_ihi_ |i hL*i Lu i?|h) ULt|t ? |i i TLh| _iUtL? +LMih|t @?_ A)ML| Ebb. 4L_i* |i i?|h) _iUtL? M) L*L4M@? €h4t @?_ t?} @? i4ThU@* t|h@|i}) M@ti_ L? @ _)?@4U ThLM| | T*@?| h@?_L4 igiU|t UL?U*_i |@| |ihi @hi tMt|@?|@* i?|h) ULt|t W? |ih t@4T*ic ThLh i TLh|?} i Tihi?Ui U@? ?Uhi@ti |i ThLM@M*|) Lu i TLh|?} M) @t 4U @t Sf TihUi?|@}i TL?|t Ai) @*tL €?_ |@| *@h}ihc L*_ih T*@?|t |@| @hi T@h| Lu @ 4*|T*@?| €h4 @hi 4Lhi *!i*) |L i TLh| ih?@h_ @?_ ai?ti? Ebb. i4T*L) @ *?i@h ThLM@M*|) uh@4iLh! | € i_ T*@?| igiU|t @?_ @*tL €?_ tMt|@?|@* t?! ULt|t ? i TLh| i?|h) , TLh| i Tihi?Ui ? |i ThiLt )i@h ?Uhi@tit |i ThLM@M*|) Lu i TLh|?} M) efIc @*|L} |i i?|h) @_@?|@}i _iThiU@|it ih) ^U!*) ih?@h_ @?_ ai?ti? EbbH €?_ |@| *@h}ihc } @}ic @?_ 4Lhi ThL_U|i T*@?|t @hi 4Lhi *!i*) |L i?|ih @t @hi T*@?|t |@| @i hiUi?|*) U@?}i_ |ih ThL_U| *?i W? |t T@Tih i UL?t_ih |i hL*i Lu t?! ULt|t @?_ T*@?| U@h@U|iht|Ut ? |i i TLh| i?|h) _iUtL? M) Bih4@? T*@?|t ? wLih 5@ L?) `i t|@h| M) _LU4i?|?} |i @}}hi}@|i hi*@|L?tT Mi|ii? hi@* i U@?}i h@|i U@?}it @?_ 4Li4i?|t ? @?_ L| Lu |i i TLh| 4@h!i| M) Bih4@? T*@?|t Ai hit*|t @hi ?L| ?i TiU|i_c @t |i 4@h! @TThiU@|itc i | h@|it ?Uhi@ti @?_ i?|h) h@|it _iU*?i L?ihti*)c _iThiU@|L?t ?L| L?*) *i@_ |L ?Uhi@t?} h@ |Lt Lu i TLh|t |L t@*it M| @*tL ?_Ui i?|h) OLiihc |i 4@}?|_it Lu |i i?|h) @?_ i |t @hi ?L| *@h}ic tL i @hi *i_ |L ttTiU| |@| |ihi @hi tM t|@?|@* ULt|t @ttLU@|i_ | |i _iUtL? AL _i|ih4?i |i *!i*LL_ |@| i?|h) LUUht @u|ih @ u@Lh@M*i i U@?}i h@|i tLU!c i h|i _L? @ 4L_i* Lu i?|h) ?|L |i i TLh| 4@h!i| @?_ it|4@|i |i 4@}?|_it Lu |i t?! ULt|t `i €?_ |@| Uhhi?| i TLh|?} ?Uhi@tit |i ThLM@M*|) Lu u|hi i TLh|?} M) DfI Ai *L?}ih €h4t @hi L| Lu |i i TLh| 4@h!i|c |i t4@**ih |i Mi? i€| Lu T@t| i TLh| i Tihi?Ui W? @__|L?c i €?_ |@| tUUittu* T*@?|tc @t .!VNi| .A|i+ BAa .!| O+ Dji6BA 8i6t 6 4i@thi_ M) t3i Lh ThL_U||)c @hi 4Lhi *!i*) |L MiUL4i i TLh|ihtc @t @hi T*@?|t | }hi@|ih t@hit Lu t!**i_ Lh!iht W? |i ?i | tiU|L?c i _itUhMi Lh t@4T*i Lu T*@?|t @?_ L|*?i |i _gihi?Uit Mi|ii? i TLh|iht @?_ ?L?i TLh|iht 5iU|L? _tUttit |i i |i?| Lu i?|h) @?_ i | M) T*@?|t ? wLih 5@ L?) _h?} |i bHft @?_ |i @}}hi}@|i 4Li4i?|t ? i U@?}i h@|it @?_ L|T| W? tiU|L? ec i Thiti?| |i 4L_i* Lu |i _iUtL? |L i TLh| 5iU|L? D _tUttit @*|ih?@|i 4i|L_L*L}it uLh it|4@|?} |i M?@h) T@?i* _@|@ 4L_i* | €h4 igiU|t @?_ 5iU|L? S UL?|@?t |i it|4@|L? hit*|t 5iU|L? . UL?U*_it 2 , TLh|iht @?_ L?i TLh|iht ? wLih 5@ L?) `i t|@h| M) _itUhM?} Lh t@4T*i Lu T*@?|t @?_ |i _gihi?Uit Mi|ii? i TLh|iht @?_ ?L?i TLh|iht Ai _@|@ UL4i uhL4 @? @??@* thi) Lu 4@?u@U|h?} it|@M*t4i?|t UL?_U|i_ ? Bih4@?) OLiihc _i |L |i UL?€_i?|@*|) hi^hi4i?|t ?_ih Bih4@? *@c Tih4ttL? Lu |i 5|@|i }L ih?4i?| t hi^hi_ uLh ti Lu @?) 4UhL _@|@ AL _@|ic L?*) |i t|@|i Lu wLih 5@ L?) @t Tih4||i_ hiti@hUiht |L 4@!i ti Lu |i _@|@2 `i i4 T*L) @? ?M@*@?Ui_ T@?i* Lu .cS2e Bih4@? 4@?u@U|h?} T*@?|t ? wLih 5@ L?) uhL4 @? @??@* thi) Lu @** it|@M*t4i?|t | 2f Lh 4Lhi i4T*L) iit #@|@ ULih@}i ?U*_it i4T*L)4i?|c @*i Lu tT4i?|tc @*i Lu i  TLh|tc @??@* @}it M) |L U@|i}Lhit Lu Lh!ihtc ThL_U|L? Lh!ih Lhtc ?it|4i?| @*itc @?_ @*i Lu ThL_U|L? A@M*i  UL?|@?t 4i@?t M) i TLh| t|@|t Ei TLh|ih%?L?i TLh|ih uLh i@U )i@h ? |i t@4T*i Ai uh@U|L? Lu T*@?|t i TLh|?} h@?}i_ uhL4 @ *L Lu HI ? bH |L e.I M) bb W? D Lu |i e )i@htc ?i| Lt Lu T*@?|t ?|L i TLh|?} ihi ?i}@|i Ai t@hi Lu L|T| tTTi_ @MhL@_ M) |i @ih@}i i TLh|?} T*@?| ? |i t@4T*i 4Li_ ? @ hi*@|i*) ?@hhL h@?}i uhL4 Hf I ? b.H |L @ Ti@! Lu 22DI ? bH. @?_ bHH A@M*i  @*tL tLt tL4i Lu |i UhLtttiU|L?@* _gihi?Uit Mi|ii? i  TLh|iht @?_ ?L?i TLh|iht t uL?_ ? iih) t|_) Lu i TLh|?}c |i 4Lt| 4 Vhh Ehuqdug dqg Zdjqhu +4<<:, iru pruh lqirupdwlrq rq wkh shuirupdqfh ri h{sruwhuv dqg qrq0h{sruwhuv lq wkh sdqho1 5 Wkxv zh fdxwlrq wkdw rxu uhvxowv pd| qrw eh frpsdudeoh iru rwkhu Jhupdq vwdwhv1 Krzhyhu/ dv ri qrz wkhuh lv qr edvlv iru frpsdulvrq1 Vhh wkh dsshqgl{ lq Ehuqdug dqg Zdjqhu +4<<:, iru pruh lqirupdwlrq rq wkh frqvwuxfwlrq ri wkh gdwd1 Dovr vhh Phwkqhu +4<<5,1 .!VNi| .A|i+ BAa .!| O+ Dji6BA 8i6t 7 t|h!?} _gihi?Ui Mi|ii? i TLh|iht @?_ ?L?i TLh|iht t |ih hi*@|i t3i , TLh|iht ? wLih 5@ L?) @hi 4Lhi |@? |Ui @t *@h}i @t ?L?i TLh|iht @?_ @i }ih *@MLh ThL_U||) @t i** , TLh|iht T@_ |ih M*i UL**@h Lh!iht 2DI 4Lhi Tih Lh L? @ih@}i |@? ?L?i TLh|ihtc *i |i UL* *@h Lh!iht i@h?i_ t@*@hit 22I }hi@|ih @| i TLh|?} T*@?|t Ai uh@U|L? Lu M*i UL**@h Lh!iht ? |i |L|@* Lh!uLhUi @t @ML| |hii ^@h|iht uLh ML| i TLh|iht @?_ ?L?i TLh|iht ,?|h) @?_ , | W? |t tiU|L?c i UL?t_ih |i hL*i Lu i U@?}i h@|i U@?}it ? _i|ih4??} |i i TLh| i?|h) @?_ i | T@||ih?t Lu |i Bih4@? T*@?|t A@M*i 2 UL?|@?t @ _i|@*i_ Mhi@!L| Lu i?|h) @?_ i | M) )i@h uLh T*@?|t ? |i t@4T*i *@?|t @hi __i_ ?|L uLh U@|i}Lhitc UL?|??} i TLh|ihtc ?L?i TLh|ihtc i?|h@?|t @?_ i |t t tL? ? 6}hi c i?|h) @?_ i | h@|it @hi ?i}@|i*) ULhhi*@|i_ Lih |i TihL_ | @ ULhhi*@|L? ULiUi?| Lu f Dc t}?€U@?| @| |i I *ii* At t itTiU@**) |hi uLh bHD @?_ bHH U ihi )i@ht Lu tMt|@?|@* i?|h) @?_ *Lih i | , TLh| ?|i?t|) @?_ i?|h) }L @?_ ? @?_ @t t tL? ? 6}hi 2 vi@ht Lu tMt|@?|@* i?|h) M) ?i i TLh|iht @hi @*tL )i@ht ? U i t|?} i TLh|iht ?Uhi@ti |i uh@U|L? Lu tT4i?|t }L?} @MhL@_ Ai ?@|h@* i T*@?@|L? uLh |i @h@|L? ? i?|h)c i | @?_ ?|i?t|) t U|@|L?t ? |i hi@* i U@?}i h@|i 6}hit @?_ e tL |i @h@|L? ? |i hi@* i U@?}i h@|i Em%# b.2'ff @?_ i?|h) @?_ ?|i?t|) hitTiU|i*) Lhhi*@|L?t uLh ML| i TLh| 4i@thit @hi t|hL?}*) ?i}@|i @?_ t}?€U@?|c fS @?_ f.D hitTiU|i*) t L?i 4}| i TiU| u |ihi @hi t?! ULt|t ? i?|ih?}c M| ?L| ? i T@?_?} i TLh| tT4i?|tc |i hi@* i U@?}i h@|i igiU|t @hi *@h}ih uLh i TLh| ?|i?t|) |@? uLh i?|h) h@|it W?|ihit|?}*)c |i ULhhi*@|L?t Mi|ii? *@}}i_ @*it Lu |i hi@* i U@?}i h@|i @?_ i TLh| i?|h) @hi ?L| t}?€U@?|c t}}it|?} @*|ih?@|i*) |@| t?! ULt|t 4}| ?L| Mi @t 4TLh|@?| uLh Bih4@? €h4t OLiihc |iti @}}hi}@|i ?4Miht _L ?L| *i| t _ti?|@?}*i €h4 tTiU€U u@U|Lht uhL4 @}}hi}@|i tLU!t AL _L |t i €ht| hii @ 4L_i* Lu i?|h) | t?! ULt|t ? |i ?i | tiU|L? 6 Wkhvh qxpehuv glhu voljkwo| iurp wkrvh uhsruwhg lq Ehuqdug dqg Zdjqhu +4<<:, zklfk zhuh iru wkh |hduv 4<:; dqg 4<<51 .!VNi| .A|i+ BAa .!| O+ Dji6BA 8i6t e 8 L_i**?} |i , TLh| #iUtL? Ai |iLhi|U@* *|ih@|hi L? t?! ULt|t @?_ i TLh|?} t _ii*LTi_ ? T@ Tiht M) # | EbHb@cMc @*_? EbHHc @*_? @?_ kh}4@? EbHbc @?_ kh}4@? EbHb +LMih|t @?_ A)ML| Ebb. @?_ ih?@h_ @?_ ai?ti? Ebb. i4ThU@**) @__hitt |i ^it|L? Lu i?|h) @?_ i | ULt|t ? |i _iUtL? |L i  TLh| M) |i ThL€| 4@ 43?} €h4 `i uL**L +LMih|t @?_ A)ML| Ebb. @?_ ih?@h_ @?_ ai?ti? Ebb. ? 4L_i**?} |i _iUtL? |L i TLh| M) |i h@|L?@*c ThL€|4@ 43?} €h4 @t @?@*L}Lt |L |i _iUtL? |L 4@h!i| @ ?i ThL_U| Ai €h4 UL?t_iht i TiU|i_ ThL€|t |L_@) @?_ ? |i u|hi uhL4 |i _iUtL? |L i?|ih |i uLhi}? 4@h!i| ?i| Lu @?) € i_ ULt|t `i @tt4i |@| |i €h4 t @*@)t @M*i |L ThL_Ui @| |i ThL€|4@ 43?} *ii* Lu i TLh|tc ^|W c u | i?|iht |i uLhi}? 4@h!i| W? |i L?i TihL_ U@ti | ?L i?|h) ULt|tc |i €h4 hiUiit ThL€|t Z| Ef| c ~|  ' R|  ^|W  S| Ef| c ~| m^|W  E ihi R| t |i ThUi Lu }LL_t tL*_ @MhL@_ @?_ S| E t |i @h@M*i ULt| Lu ThL_U?} ^@?||) ^|W  , L}i?Lt u@U|Lht @giU|?} ThL€|@M*|)c tU @t i U@?}i h@|itc @hi _i?L|i_ @t f| c *i €h4tTiU€U u@U|Lht @hi _i?L|i_ M) ~|e 6h4 U@h@U|iht|Ut |@| 4}| ?Uhi@ti |i ThLM@M*|) Lu i TLh|?} ?U*_i t3ic *@MLh UL4TLt|L?c ThL_U||)c ThL_U| 4 c @?_ L?ihtT t|hU|hi Wu i TiU|i_ ThL€|t @hi }hi@|ih |@? 3ihLc |i? |i €h4 ** i TLh| Ai i TLh| t|@|t Lu €h4  ? TihL_ | t }i? M) t| c ihi t| '  u Z|  f  t| ' f u Z| f E2 , |i?tL?t Lu |i t?}*i TihL_ 4L_i* |L 4*|T*i TihL_t t u@h*) t|h@}| uLh@h_ i? |ihi @hi ?L i?|h) ULt|t Ai i TiU|i_ ThL€|t Lu |i €h4 MiUL4i | Ef| c ~|  ' ,| " 3 B # [ '| r r | dR ^ W r r  Sr Efr c ~r $ m^ W o r  E  7 Sulfhv idfhg e| wkh up suhvxpdeo| ghshqg rq [ dqg srvvleo| rq hohphqwv lq ] dv w lw zhoo/ l1h1 sw @ sw +[w > ]lw ,1 Wr vlpsoli| qrwdwlrq/ zh zulwh sulfhv dv sw wkurxjkrxw1 .!VNi| .A|i+ BAa .!| O+ Dji6BA 8i6t 9 t *L?} @t |i ULt| u?U|L? _Lit ?L| _iTi?_ L? |i *ii* Lu L|T| ? @ ThiLt TihL_c |i tL*|L? Lu |t 4*|TihL_ ThLM*i4 t _i?|U@* |L |i t?}*i TihL_ U@ti W| t ?@|h@* |L |?! Lu ULt|t @ttLU@|i_ | i?|ih?} uLhi}? 4@h!i|t |@| 4@) @i |i U@h@U|ih Lu Mi?} t?! ? ?@|hi Aiti 4}| ?U*_i |i ULt| Lu ?uLh4@|L? @ML| _i4@?_ UL?_|L?t @MhL@_c |i ULt|t Lu it|@M *t?} @ _t|hM|L? t)t|i4c Lh |i ti@hU ULt|t Lu _i?|u)?} *LU@* M@?!iht @?_ |h@?tTLh| UL4T@?itD `i hiuih |L |iti @t i?|h) ULt|t @?_c uLh i@ti Lu i TLt|L?c i @tt4i |iti ULt|t hiUh ? u** u |i €h4 i |t |i i  TLh| 4@h!i| uLh @?) @4L?| Lu |4iS hL€|t uLh |i €h4 ? t?}*i TihL_ 4@ 43@|L? ThLM*i4 | i?|h) ULt|t @hi }i? M) W  S|Ef|c ~|m^|W     E  t|3 h| Ef| c ~| c t|3  ' R| ^| Z Ee ihi  t |i i?|h) ULt| uLh |i €h4 Ai €h4 _Lit ?L| @i |L T@) |i i?|h) ULt| u | i TLh|i_ ? |i ThiLt TihL_c i u t|3 '  6h4t ** h| : f i TLh| u i TiU|i_ ThL€|t ?i| Lu i?|h) ULt|t @hi TLt|ic t| '  u Z W?ULhTLh@|?} i?|h) ULt|t ? @ _)?@4U uh@4iLh! ThL_it @ 4i@?t uLh |L_@)<t i TLh| _iUtL? M) |i €h4 |L ?i?Ui u|hi _iUtL?t |L i TLh| At uLh4*@|L? Lu i?|h) ULt|t @t t?! ULt|t )i*_t @? LT|L? @*i |L @|?} @?_ |t ?Uhi@tit |i hi}L? ihi |i €h4 ULLtit ?L| |L @U| Ai €h4 W j"r'|c |@| 4@ 43it Uhhi?| @?_ ULLtit @ ti^i?Ui Lu L|T| *ii*tc i^r _tUL?|i_ u|hi ThL€|tc | ' ,| " 3 B # [ '| r r | $ dZhr  tr o c ED ihi TihL_M)TihL_ ThL€|t @hi }i? M) i^@|L? e @?_c @t t@*c @hi UL?t|h@?i_ |L Mi ?L??i}@|i t?Ui |i €h4 @*@)t @t |i LT|L? ?L| |L i TLh| At t i^@*i?| |L |i €h4 ULLt?} i|ih |L i TLh| ? i@U TihL_ t?Ui i @**L |i €h4 |L @*@)t TU! |i |?TihL_ ThL€| 8 Lqwhuylhzv e| wkh uvw dxwkru zlwk vpdoo X1V1 pdqxidfwxuhuv vxjjhvw wkdw glvwulexwlrq qhwzrunv dqg qdqflqj duudqjhphqwv uhsuhvhqw vl}deoh rqh0wlph frvwv lq whupv ri wlph dqg prqh|1 9 Lq rxu hpslulfdo zrun/ zh whvw zkhwkhu wkhvh hqwu| frvwv uhfxu ixoo| diwhu rqh shulrg ru zkhwkhu wkhuh lv vrph shuvlvwhqw ehqhw iurp kdylqj h{sruwhg pruh wkdq rqh |hdu lq wkh sdvw1 .!VNi| .A|i+ BAa .!| O+ Dji6BA 8i6t : 4@ 43?} ^@?||) Ai @*i u?U|L? t |i t@4i @t MiuLhi | |i @__|L? Lu TL|i?|@* i?|h) ULt|t ? |i |? TihL_ ThL€|tc W h|  d^| T| E ' 4@W EZ : fo n B,| dT|n E m ^|W o  t^|  ES  €h4 ** ULLti |L i TLh| ? TihL_ |c i ^|W : fc u R| ^|W n B E,| dT|n E m ^|W : fo  ,| dT|n E m ^|W ' fo : S| n |  E  t|3   E. Ai _gihi?Ui ? |i 4*|TihL_ 4L_i*t | @?_ |L| i?|h) ULt|t UL4it |hL} |i @__i_ ?|ih|i4TLh@* *?! Mi|ii? i TLh|?} |L_@) @?_ i TLh|?} |L4LhhL i4ML_i_ ? |i ULt| Lu i?|h) `*i i ULLti |L |?! @ML| |i i TLh| _iUtL? @t |i ?|hL_U|L? Lu @ ?i }LL_c L?i 4}| 4@}?i |@| €h4t ULLti |L|@* ThL_U|L? ^@?||it hi}@h_*itt Lu |i ?|i?_i_ _it|?@|L? ?*) @u|ih ThL_U|L? _L €h4t |i? _iU_i U 4@h!i|c _L4it|U Lh uLhi}?c ** )i*_ |i }it| ThL€|t At T*@tM*i @*|ih?@|i @TThL@U |L i TLh|?} )i*_t @*4Lt| _i?|U@* 4T*U@ |L?t uLh |i @*i u?U|L? }i? @MLi @?_ uLh Lh it|4@|L? t|h@|i}) | |i ?L|@M*i i UiT|L? |@| t?! ULt|t tL*_ Mi ?i}*}M*i D ,4ThU@* i|L_L*L}) 6hL4 |i 4*|TihL_ 4L_i* | i?|h) ULt|t }i? ? tiU|L? ec i €?_ |@| @ €h4 i TLh|t u Uhhi?| @?_ i TiU|i_ hii?it @hi }hi@|ih |@? ULt|tc t| ' + ihi e| : S| n   E  t|3   u Z f L|ihti W e|  R| ^| Z n B E,| dT|n E m ^|W : fo  ,| dT|n E m ^|W ' fo  EH Eb h }L@* t |L _i?|u) @?_ ^@?|u) u@U|Lht |@| ?Uhi@ti |i ThLM@M*|) Lu i TLh|?} `i it|4@|i |iti igiU|t t?} @ M?@h) ULUi ?L?t|hU|h@* @TThL@U Lu |i uLh4 t| ' +  u qf|    E  t|3 n 0| : f  f L|ihti Ef *@?| U@h@U|iht|Ut @hi ?U*_i_ ? |i iU|Lh f| c *i L|ih u@U|Lht tU @t |ih4t Lu |h@_i tLU!t @hi ?ULhTLh@|i_ ? |i hit_@*c 0|  .!VNi| .A|i+ BAa .!| O+ Dji6BA 8i6t D ; , Tihi?Ui @?_ ,?|h) Lt|t: Ai 4Lt| _U*| tti ? |i it|4@|L? Lu i^@|L? f UL?Uih?t |i _i? |€U@|L? Lu |i T@h@4i|ih L? |i *@}}i_ i?_L}i?Lt @h@M*i W| t }*) *!i*) |@| |ihi @hi ?LMtihi_ U@h@U|iht|Ut tU @t ThL_U| @||hM|it Lh 4@?@}ih@* @M*|) U @giU| |i _iUtL? |L i TLh| M) |i €h4 5?Ui |iti U@h@U|iht|Ut @hi TL|i?|@**) Tih4@?i?|c Lh @| *i@t| }*) tih@**) ULh hi*@|i_c @?_ ?LMtihi_ M) |i iUL?L4i|hU@?c |i) ** ?_Ui Tihtt|i?Ui ? i TLh| Mi@Lhc i|ih ? Lh L| Lu |i 4@h!i|c @?_ |t ** U@ti t |L Lihit|4@|i |i i?|h) ULt|t @?_ i Tihi?Ui igiU|t _tUtti_ @MLiH W? Th@U|Ui |t 4i@?t |@| |i ihhLh |ih4c 0| c U@? Mi |L}| Lu @t UL4Tht?} |L UL4TL?i?|tc @ Tih4@?i?| T*@?|tTiU€U i*i4i?|c V c @?_ @ |h@?t|Lh) UL4TL?i?|c #|c U U@T|hit L|ihc i L}i?Lt tLU!t Aihi @hi tiih@* TL|i?|@* it|4@|L? t|h@|i}it uLh |t _)?@4U M?@h) ULUi uh@4iLh! | ?LMtihi_ i|ihL}i?i|)c ?U*_?} ThLM| | h@? _L4 igiU|tc @?_ *?i@h ThLM@M*|) 4L_i*t | € i_ Lh h@?_L4 igiU|t Ai ti Lu h@?_L4 igiU|t hi^hit |@| |i T*@?| igiU|t Mi ?ULhhi*@|i_ | |i hi}hittLht Ai hi^hi_ @tt4T|L? uLh h@?_L4 igiU|t t ^|i *!i*) L *@|i_ ? Lh i TLh| _iUtL? 4L_i* @t T*@?| U@h@U|iht|Ut tU @t t3ic @}i *ii*tc @?_ L?ihtT U@h@U|iht|Ut @hi @T| |L Mi ULhhi*@|i_ | ThL_U| @||hM|itc 4@?@}ih@* @M*|)c |iU?L*L}) @?_ L|ih ?LMtihi_ T*@?| igiU|t +LMih|t @?_ A)ML| Ebb.c Liihc ti @ h@?_L4 igiU|t ThLM| tTiU€U@ |L? ? |ih @?@*)tt Lu t?! ULt|t @?_ i?|h) Lt| € i_ igiU|t 4L_i*tc L? |i L|ih @?_c ThL_Ui M@ti_ @?_ ?UL?tt|i?| T@h@4i|ih it|4@|itc it TiU@**) uLh |i ULiUi?| L? |i *@}}i_ _iTi?_i?| @h@M*i ih?@h_ @?_ ai?ti? Ebb. LT| uLh @ € i_ igiU|t *?i@h ThLM@M*|) 4L_i* @?_ @||i4T| |L UL?|hL* uLh |i ThLM*i4 Lu @ *@}}i_ i?_L}i?Lt @h@M*it M) it|4@|?} |i 4L_i* ? €ht| _gihi?Uit | ?t|h4i?|@* @h@M*it W? |t T@Tihc i UL?t_ih hit*|t uhL4 ML| @ h@?_L4 igiU|t ThLM| tTiU €U@|L? @?_ @ *?i@h ThLM@M*|) 4L_i* | € i_ igiU|t Ai *?i@h ThLM@ M*|) uh@4iLh! t }i? M) t| ' qf|3 n wt|3 n 0| c : Wklv E dqg wkh iroorzlqj vxevhfwlrqv gudz khdylo| rq wkh glvfxvvlrq lq Ehuqdug dqg Mhqvhq +4<<:e,1 ; Vhh Khfnpdq +4<;4, iru dq dqdo|vlv ri wkh wkhruhwlfdo lvvxhv dqg Urehuwv dqg W|erxw +4<<:, dqg Ehuqdug dqg Mhqvhq +4<<:, iru glvfxvvlrqv lq wkh h{sruwlqj frqwh{w1 .!VNi| .A|i+ BAa .!| O+ Dji6BA 8i6t < *i |i h@?_L4 igiU|t ThLM| ti|T t t| ' +  u qf|  wt|3 n V n >| : f  f L|ihti E2 `i ThLUii_ ? tiih@* t|iTt 6ht|c i it|4@|i i^@|L?  ? *ii*tc }?Lh?} @?) T*@?| igiU|t Ai *ii*t tTiU€U@|L? }it t @? TTih ML?_ L? |i 4TLh|@?Ui Lu t?! ULt|tb ih?@h_ @?_ ai?ti? EbbH @?_ ih?@h_ @?_ `@}?ih Ebb. tL |@| T*@?|t t|U?} i TLh| t|@|t uhL4 ?L?i TLh|ih |L i TLh|ihc @?_ Ui iht@c ?_ih}L _h@4@|U UL?|i4TLh@?iLt U@?}it ? t3ic i4T*L)4i?| UL4TLt|L?c @?_ @}it OLiihc |i _hiU|L? Lu |i U@t@*|) hi4@?t ?Uih|@? ? |@| @?@*)tt tL i *@} @** T*@?| U@h@U|iht|Ut @?_ L|ih i L}i?Lt @h@M*it L?i )i@h |L @L_ TLttM*i t4*|@?i|) ThLM*i4t i |c i i T*U|*) UL?t_ih |i hL*i Lu Tih4@?i?| T*@?| igiU|tc V c @t ? t| ' qf|3 n wt|3 n V n #|  E  `i it|4@|i i^@|L?  €ht| ? *ii*tc ic € i_ igiU|tc @?_ |i? ? _gih i?Uit Ai € i_ igiU|t it|4@|it @hi @*4Lt| thi*) M@ti_ _L?@h_t @?_ ?UL?tt|i?| M| }i t @ *Lih ML?_ uLh |i 4TLh|@?Ui Lu |i *@}}i_ i? _L}i?Lt @h@M*i 6Lh |i tTiU€U@|L? ? €ht| _gihi?Uitc i i4T*L) @? ?t|h4i?|@* @h@M*it it|4@|Lh @?_ ti |L *@}t Lu |i *ii*t Lu |i h}| @?_ t_i @h@M*it @t ?t|h4i?|tc i Ef|32c f|3 c t|32 c t|3 c {t| ' q{f|3 n w{t|3 n {#|  Ee At tTiU€U@|L? @L_t |i tihLt ThLM*i4 Lu ?UL?tt|i?| it|4@|it uL?_ ? |i € i_ igiU|t 4L_i*f OLiihc |i WV tTiU€U@|L? ?|hL_Uit |i TL|i?|@* ThLM*i4 |@| ?t|h4i?|t TihuLh4 TLLh*) Ai ThLM| tTiU€U@|L? ? 2 @*tL @tt4it |@| |i ihhLhtc 0| c @hi UL4 Thti_ Lu @ Tih4@?i?| T*@?|tTiU€U i*i4i?| @?_ @ Thi*) |h@?t|Lh) UL4 TL?i?|c 0| ' V n #|  Ai Tih4@?i?| UL4TL?i?|c Vc t @tt4i_ |L Mi ? ULhhi*@|i_ @UhLtt T*@?|tc SJEVc V  ' fc @?_ |i |h@?t|Lh) UL4TL?i?|c #| c ?ULhhi*@|i_ @UhLtt |4ic SJE#|c#|3r  ' f Aiti @tt4T|L?t |h@?tuLh4 |i ThLM*i4 ?|L @ _)?@4U h@?_L4 igiU|t ThLM|c @u|ih @tt4?} |@| |i < Wkh ohyhov vshflfdwlrq dovr doorzv xv wr revhuyh wkh hhfwv ri wlph0lqyduldqw sodqw dwwulexwhv rq h{sruw suredelolwlhv1 Dq| yduldeohv wkdw gr qrw fkdqjh ryhu wlph/ vxfk dv pxowlqdwlrqdo vwdwxv/ zloo eh shuihfwo| fruuhodwhg zlwk wkh {hg hhfw1 43 Vhh Krow}0Hdnlq/ Qhzh|/ dqg Urvhq +4<;;, dqg Nhdqh dqg Uxqnoh +4<<5,1 .!VNi| .A|i+ BAa .!| O+ Dji6BA 8i6t 43 ihhLht @hi ?Lh4@**) _t|hM|i_ ?i €?@*c @?_ 4TLh|@?|c ThLM*i4 hi4@?t ? |@| |i ?|@* TihL_ i TLh| t|@|tc tfc t ?L| i L}i?Lt u |ihi @hi Tih4@?i?| T*@?|tTiU€U UL4TL?i?|t ? |i ihhLh |ih4 W_i@**)c L?i L*_ ?t|h4i?| uLh |iti ?|@* @*it tef ' s Efc3c ~c3  n 1f @**L |i ihhLht |L Mi ULhhi*@|i_ | |i Tih4@?i?| T*@?|tTiU€U ihhLhc SJEV c 1f  ' 4 Bi? |i *@U! Lu @TThLTh@|i ?t|h4i?|t i @i h? |i ThLM| @tt4?} |i ?|@* UL?_|L?t @hi i L}i?Lt D2 *@?| @h@U|iht|Ut #h@?} L? |i UhLtttiU|L?@* UL4T@htL?t Lu i TLh|iht @?_ ?L?i TLh|iht @MLi @?_ i*tiihic i UL?t_ih tiih@* )TL|itit @ML| |i hL*i Lu T*@?| U@h@U|iht|Ut ? |i i TLh| _iUtL? ih@Tt |i 4Lt| LMLt T*@?| @| |hM|it |L UL?t_ih @hi |Lti hi*@|i_ |L T@t| tUUitt W| L*_ @TTi@h |L Mi hi*@|i*) ?UL?|hLiht@* |L U*@4 |@| }LL_ €h4t MiUL4i i TLh|ihtc L iihc @ tMt|@?|@* uh@U|L? Lu i TLh| TL*U) @tt4it ?t|i@_ |@| i TLh|iht MiUL4i }LL_ €h4t Ai 4i@thit Lu T*@?| tUUitt i UL?t_ih ?U*_i t3i @?_ ThL_U||) L?tt|i?|*) ? @** t@4T*it @?_ |4i TihL_tc i TLh|iht @hi 4U *@h}ih T*@?|t 53i 4@) ThL ) uLh tiih@* igiU|t( *@h}ih €h4t M) _i€?|L? @i Mii? tUUittu* ? |i T@t|c M| t3i 4@) Mi @ttLU@|i_ | *Lih @ih@}ic Lh 4@h}?@*c ULt|tc ThL_?} @ tiT@h@|i 4iU@?t4 uLh t3i |L ?Uhi@ti |i *!i*LL_ Lu i TLh|?} `i ti ThL_U||)c 4i@thi_ M) @*i@__i_ Tih i4T*L)iic @t @? @__|L?@* 4i@thi Lu T*@?| tUUitt `i @*tL UL?t_ih |i hL*i Lu *@MLh ^@*|) Wu i TLh|i_ }LL_t @hi Lu }ih ^@*|) @?_ |t @i @ }ih @*i |L i}| h@|Lc |i? i L*_ i TiU| |i ^@*|) Lu |i Lh!uLhUi |L Mi TLt|i*) hi*@|i_ | i?|h@?Ui ?|L uLhi}? 4@h!i|t AL ThL ) uLh Lh!uLhUi ^@*|)c i ti *@}}i_ @ih@}i @}it @?_ |i h@|L Lu |i UL**@h |L |L|@* i4T*L)iit `i @*tL ?U*_i @ _44) uLh T*@?|t |@| Mi*L?} |L @ 4*|T*@?| €h4 |L @**L uLh tL4i _i}hii Lu L?ihtT igiU|t ? |i _iUtL? |L i TLh| S ,4ThU@* +it*|t `i it|4@|i @** Lh @hLt tTiU€U@|L?t L? @? ?M@*@?Ui_ T@?i* U @ih@}it b )i@ht Lu _@|@ uLh 4Lhi |@? Seff T*@?|t |L|@**?} Lih D.cSff LM .!VNi| .A|i+ BAa .!| O+ Dji6BA 8i6t 44 tih@|L?t uLh |i hi}hittL?t ? *ii*t @?_ Lih Dcfff uLh |i €ht| _gihi?Uit tTiU€U@|L? `i __i |i hit*|t ?|L |L tiU|L?t 6ht| i hiTLh| tTiU €U@|L?t |L| UL?|hL**?} uLh @?) uLh4 Lu ?__@* T*@?| igiU| @?_ |i? i UL?t_ih |i @hLt 4i|L_t Lu @MtLhM?} |i ?__@* i|ihL}i?i|) Ai €ht| ti| Lu hit*|t @**Lt t |L i @4?i |i igiU|t Lu |4i?@h@?| T*@?| @||hM|itc *i |i *@||ih _Lit ?L| Ai M@ti*?i tTiU€U@|L? UL?|@?t |i T*@?| U@h@U|iht|Ut 4i?|L?i_ @MLi Aiti @hi T*@?| t3i Ei4T*L)4i?|c ThL_U||) EL|T| Tih Lh!ihc *@MLh uLhUi U@h@U|iht|Ut E@ih@}i @}i @?_ |i UL**@h%|L|@* Lh!ihtc @?_ L?ihtT E@ 4*|T*@?| €h4 _44) Ai ThL it uLh t?! ULt|t Lu i?|h) @hi |i ULiUi?|t L? |L 4i@thit Lu T@t| i TLh| T@h|UT@|L?c i TLh| t|@|t ? |i ThiLt )i@hc @?_ @ _44) uLh i|ih |i T*@?| i TLh|i_ |L )i@ht @}L M| ?L| *@t| )i@h At *@t| 4i@thi @**Lt t |L U@T|hi |i TLttM*|) |@| |i U@T|@* i Ti?_i_ ? i?|ih?} |i i TLh| 4@h!i| _Lit ?L| _iThiU@|i 44i_@|i*) TL? i |?}2 S ,t|4@|it |L| T*@?| igiU|t A@M*i UL?|@?t it|4@|it |L| UL?|hL**?} uLh T*@?| i|ihL}i?i|) +i t*|t uhL4 |i *?i@h ThLM@M*|) 4L_i* @hi }i? ? UL*4?  @?_ |Lti uhL4 |i ThLM| 4L_i* @hi ? UL*4? 2 Ai hit*|t UL?€h4 |i )TL|itt |@| tUUittu* T*@?|t @hi 4Lhi *!i*) |L i?|ih |i i TLh| 4@h!i| Ai ULiUi?|t L? t3i @?_ ThL_U||) @hi t}?€U@?| ? ML| tTiU€U@|L?t @| |i I *ii* Ai 4@}?|_it _L @h) @UhLtt |i |L it|4@|L? 4i|L_L*L}it | @** |i ULiUi?|t 4U t|hL?}ih ? |i ThLM| hit*|t Ai i_i?Ui L? |i 4 TLh|@?Ui Lu *@MLh uLhUi U@h@U|iht|Ut @*tL }i?ih@**) UL?€h4 |@| T*@?|t | }ih @}it @?_ 4Lhi t!**i_ Lh!iht @hi 4Lhi *!i*) |L i TLh| Ai @}i igiU|tc Liihc @hi ?L| t}?€U@?| @?_ @hi |i hL?} t}? ? |i *?i@h ThLM @M*|) uh@4iLh! 5hTht?}*)c T*@?|t |@| @hi @ T@h| Lu @ 4*|T*@?| €h4 @hi t}?€U@?|*) *itt *!i*) |L i TLh| |@? L|ih T*@?|t At t |i LTTLt|i Lu €?_?}t M) ih?@h_ @?_ ai?ti? Ebb. uLh |i N5 Ai it|4@|it Lu t?! ULt|t ? |iti tTiU€U@|L?t |L| UL?|hL**?} uLh ?LMtihi_ i|ihL}i?i|) @hi 44i?ti Ai TL?| it|4@|it ? ML| U@tit i Uii_ fHe A@!i? @| u@Ui @*ic |t L*_ t}}it| |@| Uhhi?| i TLh|iht 44 Dfwxdo vdpsohv vl}hv pd| ydu| ghshqglqj rq wkh odj ohqjwk fkrvhq/ krzhyhu/ qrqh ri wkh uhvxowv duh vhqvlwlyh wr wkh |hduv lqfoxghg1 45 Lw lv suhihudeoh wr wklqn ri wklv fdslwdo dv lqirupdwlrq udwkhu wkdq sk|vlfdo lqyhvwphqw1 .!VNi| .A|i+ BAa .!| O+ Dji6BA 8i6t 45 @hi HfbfI 4Lhi *!i*) |L i TLh| ?i | )i@h |@? @hi ?L?i TLh|iht Ai UL iUi?| L? |i 4i@thi Lu i TLh| t|@|t |L )i@ht i?Ui @hi @*tL TLt|ic t}?€U@?| @?_ ? |i U@ti Lu |i ThLM| 4L_i*c ^|i *@h}i i?} L| Lu |i i TLh| 4@h!i| uLh @ )i@h _Lit hi_Ui |i i?|h) Mi?i€|t Lu @?} L?Ui T@h|UT@|i_ Ai TL?| it|4@|it Lu |i i |i?| Lu |i _iThiU@|L? @hi HDI @?_ DDI uLh |L tTiU€U@|L?t @ti_ L? |iti hit*|t L?i L*_ UL?U*_i |ihi @hi tMt|@?|@* t?! ULt|t |L i?|h) @?_ |i) _iThiU@|i tMt|@?|@**) ? @ )i@hc M| ?L| UL4T*i|i*) OLiihc @t _tUtti_ @MLic |iti it|4@|it ?ULhTLh@|i @?) Tihtt|i?| ?LMtihi_ i|ihL}i?i|) @?_ tL*_ Mi UL?t_ ihi_ i |hi4i TTih ML?_t L? |i 4TLh|@?Ui Lu t?! ULt|t ? |i _iUtL? |L i TLh| M) Bih4@? €h4t S2 ,t|4@|it | T*@?| igiU|t A@M*i e UL?|@?t Lh Thiuihhi_ it|4@|it ?U*_?} tiih@* _gihi?| 4i|L_t uLh UL?|hL**?} uLh |i ?LMtihi_ UL4TL?i?|t Lu |i ihhLh |ih4 L*4?  UL?|@?t it|4@|it uhL4 @ *?i@h ThLM@M*|) 4L_i* it|4@|i_ ? *ii*t | T*@?| € i_ igiU|t L*4? 2 it|4@|it @ *?i@h tTiU€U@|L? ? €ht| _gih i?Uit | *@}}i_ *ii*t @t ?t|h4i?|t Ai h@?_L4 igiU|t ThLM| hit*|t @hi Thiti?|i_ ? UL*4? | |i @ttLU@|i_ ThLM@M*|) U@?}it }i? ? UL*4? e Ai *?i@h ThLM@M*|) 4L_i* ? *ii*t | T*@?| € i_ igiU|t 4Lt| *!i*) LihUL?|hL*t uLh ?LMtihi_ T*@?| i|ihL}i?i|) @?_ )i*_t it|4@|it Lu t?! ULt|t |@| @hi M@ti_ _L?@h_te t MiuLhic 4i@thit Lu T*@?| tUUittc t3i @?_ ThL_U||)c @hi t}?€U@?| Thi_U|Lht Lu u|hi i TLh| t|@|tc @t t |i t@hi Lu |i UL**@h Lh!iht @| |i T*@?| Ai ?i it|4@|it L? |i 4@}?|_i Lu |i t?! ULt|t @hi _h@4@|U@**) *Lih |@? |Lti |L| T*@?| igiU|t ? |i ihhLh Ai L?i )i@h @i@_ ThLM@M*|) ?Uhi@ti uhL4 Mi?} @? i TLh|ih |L_@) t *itt |@? @*u @t *@h}ic HfIc *i |i Mi?i€| Lu @?} Mii? ? |L )i@ht ThiLt*) t L?*) HI Ai 4TLh|@?| u@U| t |@| ML| ?4Miht @hi t}?€U@?| @?_ TLt|i Ai *!i*) _L?@h_ M@t ? |t ti| Lu hit*|t 4i@?t |@| i U@? t@ui*) UL?U*_i |@| |ihi @hi ?_ii_ t?! ULt|t 46 Uhphpehu wkdw wklv phdvxuh lv dfwxdoo| d gxpp| zklfk lv rqh li wkh sodqw odvw h{0 sruwhg wzr |hduv djr1 47 Vhh Ehuqdug dqg Mhqvhq +4<<:, iru d ghwdlohg glvfxvvlrq ri wklv sureohp lq wkh fdvh ri hqwu| lqwr h{sruwlqj1 .!VNi| .A|i+ BAa .!| O+ Dji6BA 8i6t 46 Lu i?|ih?} |i i TLh| 4@h!i| |@| )i*_ ?Uhi@tit ? ThLM@M*|) ? |i h@?}i Lu HIHDI Ah??} |L |i WV €ht| _gihi?Uit tTiU€U@|L? ? UL*4? 2c i €?_ @}@? |@| |i T@t| i TLh| 4i@thit @hi t}?€U@?| @?_ TLt|i , TLh|?} |L_@) ?Uhi@ti |i ThLM@M*|) Lu i TLh|?} |L4LhhL M) D2I *i u**) |L |h_t Lu |@| Mi?i€| _iThiU@|i ? L?i )i@h Ai L|ih T*@?| U@h@U|iht|Ut ? |i WV6# tTiU€U@|L? @hi }i?ih@**) ?L| t}?€U@?|c | |i i UiT|L? Lu t3i |@| tLt T | |i hL?} t}? @| |i fI *ii* Ai TLLh TihuLh4@?Ui Lu |i T*@?| U@h@U|iht|Ut 4@) Mi _i T@h|*) |L |i ?@|hi Lu |i ?t|h4i?|t ti_D 6?@**) i UL?t_ih |i h@?_L4 igiU|t ThLM| hit*|t Oihi i @}@? €?_ t|hL?}c TLt|i @?_ t}?€U@?| igiU|t Lu T@t| i TLh|?} L? Uhhi?| i TLh| t|@|t , TLh|?} |L_@) ?Uhi@tit |i ThLM@M*|) Lu Mi?} @? i TLh|ih |L 4LhhL M) SHI @?_ |i igiU| tLt u@h *itt _iThiU@|L? Ee2I |@? ? L|ih tTiU€U@|L?t W? |t uh@4iLh!c |i T*@?| igiU|t @hi @}@? t}?€U@?| @?_ ? |i i TiU|i_ _hiU|L?tc | 4i@thi Lu tUUittc itTiU@**) ThL_U||)c Mi?} t|hL?}*) ULhhi*@|i_ | u|hi i TLh| t|@|t ih?@h_ @?_ ai?ti? Ebb. _tUtt TL|i?|@* ThLM*i4t | |i h@?_L4 igiU|t it|4@|Lht |@| 4}| *i@_ |L @? Lihit|4@|i Lu t?! ULt|t wLL!?} Lih |i i?|hi ti| Lu hit*|tc i ttTiU| |t 4}| Mi L?*) @ hi*@|i*) t4@** ThLM*i4 ? |i Bih 4@? _@|@ @t |i t4*@h|) Lu |i WV6# tTiU€U@|L? @?_ |i h@?_L4 igiU|t ThLM| it|4@|it t ^|i t|h!?} . L?U*tL?t At T@Tih ThL_it @?L|ih hL?_ Lu i_i?Ui L? |i hi*@|L?tT Mi|ii? tUUitt @?_ i TLh|?} @| |i T*@?| Lh €h4 *ii* `i @i uLUtti_ Lh @| |i?|L? L? |i hL*i |@| T*@?| U@h@U|iht|Ut T*@) ? _i|ih4??} U €h4t i?|ih @?_ |i 4@}?|_i Lu |i ULt|tc Lh M@hhihtc |@| Bih4@? €h4t u@Ui ? _iU_?} |L Mi}? i TLh|?} h hit*|t uhL4 @ _)?@4U M?@h) ULUi 4L_i* Lu |i _iUtL? |L i?|ih ThL_i t|hL?} tTTLh| |@| |ihi @hi tMt|@?|@* t?! ULt|t uLh i TLh| i?|h) Ai h@?}ic it|4@|i_ @t |i _iUhi@ti_ ThLM@M*|) Lu i?|ih?} u |i €h4 t L| Lu |i 4@h!i| |L_@)c h? Mi|ii? HI @?_ HbI Ai 4Lt| hi@tL?@M*i TL?| 48 Wkh lqvwuxphqwv shuirup pxfk ehwwhu iru suhglfwlqj vzlwfkhv h{sruw vwdwxv wkdq hp0 sor|phqw dqg surgxfwlylw| fkdqjhv1 .!VNi| .A|i+ BAa .!| O+ Dji6BA 8i6t 47 it|4@|itc Liihc t}}it| @ 4@}?|_i L? |i Lh_ih Lu t| Lih DfI Aiti hit*|t @hi ? Mi|ii? |Lti it|4@|i_ t?} N5 Eih?@h_ @?_ ai?ti? bb. @?_ _ii*LT?} UL?|h) _@|@ E+LMih|t @?_ A)ML| bb.c | N5 €h4t @TT@hi?|*) u@U?} |i *Lit| t?! ULt|t |L i TLh|?} Ai U@T|@* ?ii_i_ |L i?|ih |i 4@h!i| _Lit ?L| _iThiU@|i i?|hi*) @u|ih L?i TihL_c @*|L} Lh Thiuihhi_ it|4@|it t}}it| |@| @t 4U @t |L |h_t @t _ttT@|i_ ? @ )i@h Ai hit*|t UL?€h4 |@| }LL_ T*@?|t @hi 4U 4Lhi *!i*) |L MiUL4i i TLh|iht i@thit Lu t3i @?_ ThL_U||) @hi TLt|i @?_ t}?€U@?| ? 4Lt| tTiU€U@|L?t W? @__|L?c T*@?|t ?|i?ti ? t!**i_ Lh!iht @hi 4Lhi *!i*) |L i TLh| At ThL_it ?_iTi?_i?| i_i?Ui uLh |i }hL?} *|ih@|hi L? |i hi*@|L?tT Mi|ii? i TLh|?} @?_ tUUitt `*i i TLh|iht @i _ith@M*i TihuLh4@?Ui U@h@U|iht|Ut i? UL4T@hi_ |L ?L?i TLh|iht ? @*4Lt| iih) ?_t|h) @?_ UL?|h)cS |i }hL?} UL?ti?ttc UL?€h4i_ ? Lh hit*|tc t |@| tUUitt *i@_t |L i TLh|?} h@|ih |@? i TLh|?} *i@_?} |L tUUitt Ai hit*|t ? |t T@Tih t}}it| @? 4TLh|@?| @hi@ Lu u|hi hiti@hU t |i 4i@thi4i?| Lu |i @hLt UL4TL?i?|t Lu t?! ULt|t Lu i TLh| i?|h) @?_ |i i |i?| |L U |i) |@!i L? |i U@h@U|iht|Ut Lu TM*U }LL_t W? @__|L?c uh|ih Lh! t ?ii_i_ L? L |i ?Uhi@t?} iUL?L4U ?|i}h@|L? ? ,hLTi ** @giU| UhLttMLh_ih @U||it M) Bih4@? @?_ L|ih €h4t 49 Vhh Ehuqdug dqg Mhqvhq +4<<;, dqg Ehuqdug dqg Zdjqhu +4<<:,1 .!VNi| .A|i+ BAa .!| O+ Dji6BA 8i6t 48 +iuihi?Uit @*_?c +LMih| EbHH RO)t|ihitt ? W4TLh| hUitG Ai i@Ui@_ ,giU| 4ihU@? ,UL?L4U +iic .HEe TT.. .HD @*_?c +LMih| @?_ @* kh}4@? EbHb Rihtt|i?| ,giU|t Lu w@h}i , U@?}i +@|i 5LU!t "@h|ih*) aLh?@* Lu ,UL?L4Utc VL* fec L e TT S DSDe ih?@h_c ?_hi  @?_ a h@_uLh_ ai?ti? Ebb. R`) 5L4i 6h4t , TLh|G , Tihi?Uic ,?|h) Lt|tc 5T**Lihtc @?_ 5Mt_it v@*i 44iL ih?@h_c ?_hi  @?_ a h@_uLh_ ai?ti? EbbH R, UiT|L?@* ,  TLh|ih ihuLh4@?UiG @tic ,giU|c Lh L|q aLh?@* Lu W?|ih?@|L?@* ,UL?L4Ut uLh|UL4?} ih?@h_c ?_hi  @?_ aL@U4 `@}?ih Ebb. R, TLh|t @?_ 5U Uitt ? Bih4@? @?u@U|h?} `i*|h|tU@u|*Uit hUc  Ec  eD. *ih_itc 5LuhL?tc 5@* w@U @?_ a@4it A)ML| Ebb. RWt Rwi@h??} M), TLh|?} W4TLh|@?|q ,+ `Lh!?} @Tih L D.. # |c ?@t EbHb@ R,?|h) @?_ , | #iUtL?t N?_ih N?Uih|@?|) aLh?@* Lu L*|U@* ,UL?L4)c VL* b.c L TT S2fS H # |c ?@t EbHbM RO)t|ihittc W4TLh| i?i|h@|L?c @?_ ,  U@?}i +@|i @ttAhL} "@h|ih*) aLh?@* Lu ,UL?L4Utc VL* fec L 2 TT 2fD22H OiU!4@?c a@4it EbH RAi W?U_i?|@* @h@4i|iht hLM*i4 @?_ |i hLM*i4 Lu W?|@* L?_|L?t ? ,t|4@|?} @ #tUhi|i A4i#tUhi|i #@|@ 5|LU@t|U hLUitt ? @h*it @?t! @?_ #@?i* U6@__i? Ei_tc Ai 5|hU|h@* ?@*)tt Lu #tUhi|i #@|@ @4Mh_}iG WA hitt OL*|3,@!?c #L}*@tc `|?i) ii)c @?_ O@hi) +Lti? EbHH R,t |4@|?} ViU|Lh |Lhi}hittL?t ? @?i* #@|@ ,UL?L4i|hU@c VL* DSc L Sc TT  . bD .!VNi| .A|i+ BAa .!| O+ Dji6BA 8i6t 49 ki@?ic U@i* @?_ #@_ +?!*i Ebb2 R? |i ,t|4@|L? Lu @?i*#@|@ L_i*t | 5ih@* Lhhi*@|L? `i? W?t|h4i?|t hi L| 5|hU|*) , L}i?Lt aLh?@* Lu t?itt @?_ ,UL?L4U 5|@|t|Utc VL* fc L  TT 2b kh}4@?c @* EbHb , U@?}i +@|i W?t|@M*|) WA hittc @4 Mh_}i  kh}4@?c @* Ebb2 BiL}h@T) @?_ Ah@_i WA hittc @4Mh_}i  i|?ihc , Ebb2 #@t ,hiM?}tThL}h@44 _ih @4|*Ui? 5|@|t|! 4 ihiU _it hL_3ihi?_i? BiihMit W? + ,h|i* @?_ a `@}?ih Ei_tc hL_3ihi? ? i_iht@Uti? ,4ThtUi N?|ihtU?}i? 4| i|hiMt_@|i? W`VLh|h@}thii S O@?LihG W` +LMih|tc @h! @?_ a@4it A)ML| Ebb. RAi #iUtL? |L , TLh| ? L*4M@G ? ,4ThU@* L_i* Lu ,?|h) | 5?! Lt|t 4ihU@? ,UL?L4U +iic H.Eec DeDDSe Table 1: Exporters and Non-Exporters Year 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 Status No. of firms 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 2853 1798 2845 1791 2796 1767 2909 1780 2754 1761 2665 1736 2570 1745 2397 1818 2301 1837 2270 1800 2179 1829 2232 1885 2252 1900 2248 1954 2340 1970 Export quota (percent) 18.03 18.24 18.87 20.10 20.94 20.75 21.75 21.95 21.76 22.15 22.15 22.08 21.12 19.77 19.82 Hours per Hourly wages Salaries worker - blue blue collar White Collar collar workers workers (DM; (1000 DM; real, 1985) real, 1985) 1876 1717 1849 1707 1828 1680 1796 1644 1776 1613 1802 1648 1802 1654 1780 1663 1767 1698 1750 1586 1776 1597 1735 1581 1727 1565 1706 1553 1702 1556 16.59 21.18 17.29 21.70 17.44 22.41 17.41 22.32 17.30 22.08 17.14 21.88 17.17 22.30 17.49 22.20 18.16 22.77 18.81 24.90 18.97 25.42 19.53 25.79 20.33 26.32 21.06 27.16 21.53 27.82 42.74 51.99 44.19 53.11 44.64 54.41 44.52 54.29 43.85 54.62 44.17 55.11 44.45 55.95 44.67 56.26 46.76 58.58 47.88 60.73 48.85 62.27 49.13 62.72 50.58 64.04 51.35 65.38 52.18 67.10 No. of employees Fraction of blue collar workers 53.50 278.45 54.31 280.91 55.31 288.27 53.71 279.85 53.08 273.80 52.58 266.52 52.56 262.21 53.27 257.32 55.10 263.83 56.31 263.52 56.35 259.44 57.23 255.87 59.42 261.79 61.85 257.81 60.33 251.00 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.74 0.74 0.74 0.73 0.73 0.73 0.73 0.73 0.73 0.73 0.73 0.74 0.73 0.73 0.73 0.72 0.73 0.73 0.73 0.73 0.74 0.74 0.73 0.73 0.72 Sum of sales Exports (1000 in Germany DM; real, (1000 DM; 1991) real, 1991) 10869 42615 11269 44339 11457 44015 11248 42251 10799 41020 11282 42796 11366 42643 12294 42198 12632 43550 13361 45127 13738 46687 14469 47319 15655 51793 16263 58104 16107 55249 20006 21447 23164 24509 24975 24512 28544 30305 28809 28686 29822 32032 31347 29770 27362 Value of production (1000 DM; real, 1991) 9583 50344 9955 52201 9961 54018 9932 52487 9840 51702 9536 52394 9517 55459 9972 56618 10459 56833 10657 56323 10626 57786 11258 60188 11982 61425 13113 63903 12552 63702 Table 2: Entry and Exit Year No. of Firms exporting in t No. of Firms not exporting in t 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1798 1722 1717 1711 1720 1688 1690 1742 1758 1726 1767 1789 1823 1862 1878 2853 2917 2966 2890 2904 2743 2622 2447 2334 2296 2238 2174 2264 2251 2301 No. of Firms exporting in t and t-1 (1,1) No. of Firms exporting in t that did not export in t-1 (0,1) No. of Firms not exporting in t that did export in t-1 (1,0) No. of Firms not exporting in t and t-1 (0,0) 1625 1628 1617 1620 1569 1576 1602 1645 1640 1647 1685 1728 1767 1795 97 89 94 100 119 114 140 113 86 120 104 95 95 83 112 103 102 84 104 86 78 98 112 90 86 104 88 102 2805 2863 2788 2820 2639 2536 2369 2236 2184 2148 2088 2160 2163 2199 Table 3: Estimating the Probability of Entry, No Plant Effects Last Exported in t-1 Last Exported in t-2 Size Productivity Multi-plant Wage Non-production Year Dummies Industry Dummies 1 (1) LP-OLS (2) Probit1 0.849*** (0.007) 0.128*** (0.015) 0.021*** (0.004) 0.009*** (0.002) -0.015*** (0.003) -0.004 (0.006) 0.034*** (0.011) Yes Yes 0.895*** (0.006) 0.396*** (0.016) 0.098*** (0.004) 0.023*** (0.005) -0.089*** (0.008) 0.040*** (0.014) 0.071** (0.025) Yes No Coefficients represent the change in probability of exporting due to a one standard deviation increase in the independent variable evaluated at the means of the other variables (or a change from 0-1 in the case of a dummy variable). Table 4: Estimating the Probability of Entry, Plant Effects Last Exported in t-1 Last Exported in t-2 Size Productivity Multi-plant Wage Non-production Year Dummies 2 (1) LP-FE (2) LP-FD (3) REProbit 0.380*** (0.005) 0.018*** (0.006) 0.040*** (0.004) 0.009*** (0.002) -0.008 (0.006) 0.004 (0.008) 0.036** (0.016) Yes 0.518*** (0.048) 0.168*** (0.025) -0.016* (0.009) -0.001 (0.004) 3.288*** (0.038) 1.061*** (0.051) 0.320*** (0.021) 0.179*** (0.022) -0.224*** (0.041) 0.171*** (0.067) 0.208* (0.112) Yes 0.000 (0.012) -0.031 (0.026) Yes (4)2 0.68 0.40 0.01 0.06 -0.07 0.02 0.01 Coefficients represent the change in probability of exporting due to a one standard deviation increase in the independent variable evaluated at the means of the other variables (or a change from 0-1 in the case of a dummy variable). Figure 1: Entry and Exit Rates 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% % of firms 2.5% Entry Exit 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 Year 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 Figure 2: Entry and Intensity 25.0% 4.0% 3.5% 20.0% 3.0% 15.0% Intensity Entry Rate 2.5% 2.0% 10.0% 1.5% 1.0% 5.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 [0,1] 1986 1987 Export Intensity 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 Figure 3: Export Entry and the Real Exchange Rate 4.0% 120 100 3.0% % of Firms Entering 80 2.5% 2.0% 60 1.5% 40 1.0% 20 0.5% 0 0.0% 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 year Entry Real Exchange Rate 1989 1990 1991 1992 Real Exchange Rate (trade-weighted, 1972=100) 3.5% Figure 4: Export Intensity and the Real Exchange Rate 120 0.25 100 80 0.15 60 0.1 40 0.05 20 0 0 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 Year Export Intensity Real Exchange Rate 1989 1990 1991 1992 % of Shipments Exported Real Exchange Rate (1972=100) 0.2