The Lahore Journal of Economics
15 : 1 (Summer 2010): pp. 91-102
Development of Supply and Demand Functions of Pakistan’s
Wheat Crop
Muhammad Zulfiqar* and Anwar F. Chishti**
Abstract
A simultaneous-equations model was used to capture the supply and
demand functions for Pakistan’s wheat sector at the national level. This
model reflects the fact that Pakistan’s domestic wheat supply is priceresponsive and positively affected by the use of nutrient fertilizers. While
price appears to be a statistically significant factor on the supply side, it is
statistically insignificant on the demand side. Population size appears to be
very significant in determining wheat demand. The wheat import supply
seems to be influenced by the current world wheat price, current world
wheat supplies, Pakistan’s domestic consumption in previous years, and
domestic supply in previous years. We recommend that policymakers allow
market forces to play a role in the wheat economy in a way that protects
producers from adverse market conditions. The availability of various
nutrient fertilizers should be central to policies on future inputs use. Work
is also needed on wheat alternatives so that the country’s dependence on
wheat is eased as much as possible.
Keywords: Wheat, supply and demand, Pakistan.
JEL Classification: C59, Q11.
1. Introduction
The wheat crop occupies a vital position in Pakistan’s agrarian
economy. Its share in terms of percentage area under major crops has
remained around 36% for the last three decades (Agricultural Statistics of
Pakistan). The production of the wheat crop in Pakistan is handled by
private producers, but its marketing and trade have mainly been regulated
by the government through ‘support price’ policies announced by the
Government of Pakistan at the beginning of each cropping season.
According to economic theory, the announcement of ‘support or
*
Director Planning, Kohat University of Science and Technology, Kohat, Pakistan.
Dean, Management Sciences, Muhammad Ali Jinnah University, Islamabad, Pakistan.
**
92
Muhammad Zulfiqar and Anwar F. Chishti
procurement prices’ at the time of wheat sowing, the practice of wheat
procurement, and the size of wheat stocks procured positively affect the area
under wheat production and level of wheat production.
Despite the fact that the wheat crop contributes significantly toward
the economy of Pakistan, there has been little analytical research carried out
on its supply and demand determinants, with the exception of some
research on the cost of production, supply response, and demand elasticities.
Even studies carried out on cost, supply, and demand do not provide a
complete picture; for instance, most of the studies carried out on the cost
of production provide different estimates for the same crop and year due
mainly to over- or underestimation (Arifullah, 2007). Studies on supply
response in Pakistan include Falcon (1964), Cumming (1975), Tweeten
(1986), Ahmad and Chaudry (1987), and Ali (1988). However, these studies
do not provide econometrically estimated full production or supply
functions, which are expected to reflect the major determinants of supply.
On the demand side, fewer studies are available; these include Cornelisse
and Kuijpers (1987), Ahmad, et al. (1987), Hamid, et al. (1987), Alderman
(1988), and Ashfaq, Griffith, and Parton (2001).
For quantitative and analytical research, one needs at least four
econometrically estimated supply and demand functions (domestic supply,
domestic demand, export or import supply, and export or import demand
functions). Since little systematic research work has been carried out on the
development of econometrically estimated functions, there have been few
mentionable research studies on price and policy analysis, government
interventions, and associated welfare effects.
The aforementioned discussion necessitates carrying out a
comprehensive research study of Pakistan’s wheat crop with the objective of
developing supply and demand functions that will facilitate policymakers in
evaluating government interventions and improving resource use efficiency
in wheat crop production.
2. Material and Methods
Econometric Model
This section presents a methodological and analytical framework for
carrying out the research at hand. The following general model of supply
and demand was specified.
A = α0 + α1At-1 + α2Pd
(1a)
Development of Supply and Demand Functions of Pakistan’s Wheat Crop
Sd =
0
+
1
Â+
2
Dd =
0
-
1 d
P +
2
FNT +
3
GDPP +
Id = Dd - Sd
Is
= θ0 + θ1Pi - θ2Pw + θ2Sw
PPT +
3
POPP
4
WAT
93
(1b)
(1c)
(1d)
(1e)
The definitions of the various variables included in the model are
provided in Table-1. The aforementioned model of supply and demand is a
simultaneous-equations recursive model occurs in Gujarati (2003, pp.764-766)
and Maddala (2002, p.373). A number of different specifications of this model
were tried, and the final estimated model was selected on the basis of
economic theory and statistical/econometric diagnostics using R2, F-test, t-test,
Jarque-Bera (JB) Normality Test, DW test and Durban h tests (Zulfiqar, 2008).
Data and Data Sources
The model of wheat supply and demand functions specified above
includes a number of dependent and explanatory variables: these include
area and lagged area under wheat crop, domestic wholesale price for wheat,
quantity supplied and demanded, quantity imported and import price, world
average trade price, major inputs such as nutrient-fertilizers, pesticides and
water used, gross domestic product (GDP) and population.
Data on most of the listed variables were downloaded from the
FAO’s website (www.fao.org; statistical databases). In addition, data were
also obtained from the Government of Pakistan’s Agricultural Statistics of
Pakistan, and the UN COMTRADE database. GDP-related data were
obtained from the IMF website. For estimation, time series data for the
period 1979/80 to 2004/05 were used.
3. Empirical Results
After trying a number of different specifications of the model
specified in 1 (a-e), we ended up with the final estimated model given in
Table-2. The various equations of this model are evaluated as follows.
Wheat Acreage Equation
The estimated wheat-acreage equation (A = 3695.163 + 0.48947At-1
+ 24.985TR) fulfills all necessary diagnostic statistics; the explanatory
variables included are in line with economic theory and are statistically
94
Muhammad Zulfiqar and Anwar F. Chishti
significant. The lagged area (At-1) positively determines the present acreage
under wheat crop. The equation, however, seems to suffer from the
problem of autocorrelation. As an autoregressive equation, DW is not valid
and Durban h is -2.0996, which for no autocorrelation should fall in the
interval 1.96.
Domestic Wheat Supply Equation
The estimated domestic wheat supply equation (Sd = -8458.219 +
2.4879Â + 0.41528Pd + 2.4625FNTWT) reflects that the area predicted (Â)
in an earlier equation along with the wholesale wheat price (Pd) and nutrient
fertilizers (FNTWT) used determines the domestic production/supply of
wheat in Pakistan.
Domestic Wheat Demand Equation
The domestic wheat demand equation (Dd = 750.129 - 0.046974Pd +
136.07POP) indicates that, as per economic theory, the domestic demand for
wheat is negatively influenced by wheat wholesale prices and positively by the
size of Pakistan’s population (POP). The size of population is statistically
significant at α = 0.05 while the price of wheat, although it carries the
correct sign, is statistically insignificant. The latter results are acceptable in a
situation where wheat is a major item of daily consumption, as in Pakistan. It
is worth noting that price is one of the major and statistically significant
determinants of wheat supply in Pakistan, as reflected by the earlier explained
domestic wheat supply equation.
Wheat Import Price Equation
The estimated wheat import price equation (Pi = 23.1559 +
0.91124Pw) shows that Pakistan’s import price is positively determined by
the world wheat price.
Wheat Import Supply Equation
The estimated wheat import supply to Pakistan (Is = -5642.2 +
5.2191P^i - 0.96151Sd,t-1 + 0.68329Dd,t-1 + 0.017019Sw) seems to have been
positively affected by Pakistan’s import price (P^i; already determined in the
last equation), the world supply of wheat (Sw), and previous years’ wheat
consumption (Dd,t-1), and negatively by previous years’ wheat supply (Sd,t-1).
Development of Supply and Demand Functions of Pakistan’s Wheat Crop
95
4. Conversion to an Easy-to-Use Model
Conversion Procedure
The econometrically estimated model of Pakistan’s wheat supply and
demand functions, detailed in Table-2 and explained in the preceding
paragraphs, appears to be a good model in spite of certain weaknesses. It
performed best among several specifications tried, both in terms of the
usual diagnostic statistics and economic theory. However, this estimated
model still needs to go through at least three major modifications. First, its
first wheat acreage equation is an autoregressive function, which yields
short-run results; it needs to be converted into a long-run version. Second,
its second equation contains the predicted value of area (Â), which is
estimated in the first equation; hence, Â in the second equation will have to
be replaced with its estimated value. Third, the model contains an import
supply (Is) function but lacks an import demand (Id) function to be computed
as per the identity equation Id = Dd - Sd.
To convert the first equation from its short run to a long run version, we
first need to compute the coefficient of adjustment (λ), and then adjust the
short-run equation to its long-run version. In the short-run equation, the
value of the estimated coefficient on the lagged dependent variable At-1 is
0.48947, which is equal to 1 - λ. Hence, solving for λ:
λ = 1- 0.48947
=
0.51053
(2a)
(2b)
To convert the short-run wheat acreage equation into its long-run
version, we need to divide all coefficients attached to explanatory variables and
constant by the value of (λ) and omit the lagged variable from the equation.
By doing so, we get the long-run version of the wheat acreage equation:
A = 7176.9189 + 48.93934TR
(3)
Since the estimated domestic wheat supply equation includes the
predicted value of variable ‘A’, which we have now estimated in equation
(3), we substitute equation (3) into the former equation, allowing the
domestic wheat supply equation to take the following form:
Sd = -8458.219 + 2.4879 (7176.919 + 48.9393 TR) + 0.41528Pd + 2.4625
FNTW = 9397.238 + 0.41528Pd + 2.4625FNTWT+ 121.7562TR
(4a)
Muhammad Zulfiqar and Anwar F. Chishti
96
We can remove variable TR by putting in its average value,
multiplying with the estimated coefficient and adding the resultant figure to
the intercept.
Sd = 11040.9577 + 0.41528Pd + 2.4625FNTWT
(4b)
By the same procedure, we can remove the variable FNTWT and
further condense the domestic supply equation.
Sd = 13485.77 + 0.41528Pd
(4c)
Similarly, the domestic wheat demand (Dd) function can be further
condensed as follows.
Dd = 750.129 - 0.046974Pd + 136.07POP
= 16896.20 - 0.046974Pd
(5a)
(5b)
The estimated model lacks an import demand (Id) function, which is
computed as an identity equation (difference between Dd and Sd); hence:
Id = Dd - Sd
(6a)
= (16896.20 - 0.046974Pd) - (13485.77 + 0.41528Pd)
(6b)
= 3410.43 - 0.462254Pd
(6c)
The estimated wheat import price equation and wheat import supply
equation, respectively, represent the effect of the world wheat trade price
(Pw) on Pakistan’s wheat import/trade price (Pi) and shows how Pakistan’s
wheat import supply (Is) is affected by its various determinants.
Pi = 23.1559 + 0.91124Pw
Is =-5642.2 + 5.2191P^i - 0.96151Sd,t-1 + 0.68329Dd,t-1 + 0.017019Sw
(7)
(8a)
We can merge equation (7) with equation (8a) to create equation (8b).
Is = - 5521.1413 + 4.7556Pw - 0.96151Sd,t-1 + 0.68329Dd,t-1 + 0.017019Sw
(8b)
Replacing the average values of variables Sd,t-1 and Dd,t-1 and adding the
intercept, we get a shortened version of the equation:
Is = - 8922.5358 + 4.7556Pw + 0.017019Sw
(8c)
Development of Supply and Demand Functions of Pakistan’s Wheat Crop
97
We can further condense the equation by replacing the average
values of variable Sw.
Is = 389.5862 + 4.7556Pw
(8d)
Final Easy-to-Use Model
What has been computed and presented in equations (4) through (8)
represents a full model of Pakistan’s wheat crop sector. This model provides
two equations for both the domestic wheat supply (4b and 4c) and domestic
demand (5a and 5b). It further consists of one equation each for wheat
import demand (6c) and wheat import price as it influenced by the world
wheat price (7), and three equations for wheat export supply to Pakistan
(8b-d). Table-3 presents a summarized version of this easy-to-use model of
Pakistan’s wheat supply and demand functions.
5. Conclusion and Recommendations
Conclusion
It appears that Pakistan’s domestic wheat supply is not only priceresponsive but also positively affected by the use of nutrient fertilizers.
Policymakers need to take note of these factors.
While price appears to be a statistically significant factor on the
supply side, it is a statistically insignificant factor on the demand side, while
population size appears to be very significant in determining the total
demand for wheat in Pakistan. These results portray the ground realities of
Pakistan where wheat constitutes an essential sizeable proportion of the
average person’s daily diet.
Wheat import supply to Pakistan seems to be influenced by the
current world wheat price, current world wheat supplies, domestic previous
years’ consumption, and domestic previous years’ supply. The first three
variables positively affect wheat import supply to Pakistan, while the last
variable negatively affects it.
Recommendations
On one hand, Pakistani wheat growers are found to respond positively
to wheat prices, while on the other hand, the incoming WTO regime has
asked the government to abandon the announcement of support prices. It is
therefore recommended that public and private sector policymakers
formulate a policy that allows market forces to play a role in the wheat
Muhammad Zulfiqar and Anwar F. Chishti
98
economy such that the wheat producers do not suffer due to adverse market
conditions.
Besides price, the use of nutrient fertilizers seems to play a positive role
in determining wheat supply. Therefore, the supply of various nutrient
fertilizers, their availability at appropriate times and easy-to-reach places and
their use on crops in recommended amounts should be major measures
under the government’s future inputs use policy.
It is further recommended that policymakers and researchers work on
other food alternatives so that Pakistan’s dependence on wheat is eased as
far as possible.
Table-1: Definitions of Variables and their Mean Values
Name of Variable
Mean Value
A = area under wheat in ‘000’ hectares
7837.60
 = area predicted in ‘000’ hectares
7837.60
At-1= lagged area in ‘000’ hectares
7774.00
Sd = domestic supply in ‘000’ tons
15512.00
Sd,t-1 = lagged domestic supply in ‘000’ tons
15099.00
Dd = domestic demand in ‘000’ tons
16667.00
Dd,t-1 lagged domestic demand in ‘000’ tons
16269.00
Sw = world supply of wheat in ‘000’ tons
547170.00
Is= Net import in ‘000’ tons
1154.60
Pd = domestic price in Pak. Rupees per m. ton.
4879.20
Pi = Pakistan level trade price per ton in US$
169.82
Pw =world level trade price per ton in US$
160.95
FNTWT, nutrient-fertilizers used in wheat in ‘000’ tons
992.82
POT = population of Pakistan in millions
118.66
TR= trend variable for the years of observations included
Development of Supply and Demand Functions of Pakistan’s Wheat Crop
99
Table-2: Empirical Results of Estimated Econometrics Model
Wheat Acreage Equation
Variable Coefficient
Intercept
At-1
TR
3695.163
0.48947
24.985
t-Ratio p-Value
3.093
2.864
2.223
0.005
0.009
0.036
R2
F
DW/
Durban h
DW=2.3969
0.8473 63.829 Durban h
= -2.0996
Wheat Domestic Supply Equation
Variable Coefficient
t-Ratio p-Value
Intercept
Â
Pd
FNTWT
-1.162
2.357
2.308
1.310
-8458.219
2.4879
0.41528
2.4625
0.2580
0.028
0.031
0.204
R2
F
0.9252 90.685
DW
2.5064
Wheat Domestic Demand Equation
Variable Coefficient t-Ratio p-Value
R2
F
DW
Intercept 750.129
0.188
0.853
Pd
- 0.04697 -0.1349 0.8940
POP
136.07
2.905
0.008
0.7737
39.313
1.1857
Wheat Import Price Equation
Variable Coefficient t-Ratio p-Value
Intercept
Pw
23.1559
0.91124
0.8080
5.170
0.4270
0.000
R2
F
DW
0.5269
26.734
1.6565
Wheat Import Supply Equation
Variable Coefficient t-Ratio p-Value
Intercept -5642.2
P^i
5.2191
Sd,t-1
- 0.96151
Dd,t-1
0.68329
Sw
0.017019
-2.483
0.7298
-6.174
5.109
3.130
0.022
0.4740
0.000
0.000
0.005
R2
F
DW
0.6666
10.498
2.2496
Muhammad Zulfiqar and Anwar F. Chishti
100
Table-3: The Final Easy-To-Use Wheat Supply and Demand Model
Variable
Intercept
Wheat Domestic Supply Equation
Full Equation-1
Shortened Equation-2
11040.9577
13485.77
Pd
0.41528
FNTWT
2.4625
0.41528
Wheat Domestic Demand Equation
Variable
Full Equation-1
Shortened Equation-2
Intercept
750.129
16896.20
- 0.046974
- 0.046974
Pd
POP
136.07
Wheat Import Demand Equation
Variable
Coefficient
Intercept
3410.43
Pd
-0.462254
Wheat Import Price Equation
Variable
Coefficient
Intercept
23.1559
Pw
0.91124
Variable
Intercept
Pw
Wheat Import Supply Equation
Shortened
Full Equation-1
Equation-2
-5521.1413
-8922.5358
4.7556
Sd,t-1
-0.96151
Dd,t-1
0.68329
Sw
0.017019
4.7556
0.017019
Shortened
Equation-3
389.5862
4.7556
Development of Supply and Demand Functions of Pakistan’s Wheat Crop
101
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