Chance and Indeterminacy

For many astronomers, the progressive development of life has been seen as a natural occurrence given proper environmental conditions on a planet: even though such beings would not be identical to humans, there would be significant parallels. A striking contrast is seen in writings of nonphysical scientists, who have held more widely differing views. But within this diversity, reasons for differences become more apparent when we see how views about extraterrestrials can be related to the differential emphasis placed on modern evolutionary theory by scientists of various disciplines. One clue to understanding the differences between the biologists, paleontologists, and anthropologists who speculated on extraterrestrials is suggested by noting who wrote on the subject. Given the relatively small number of commentators on the topic, it seems more than coincidental that four of the major contributors to the evolutionary synthesis in the 1930s and 1940s are among them. Upon closer examination it is evident that the exobiological arguments of Theodosius Dobzhansky and George Gaylord Simpson and, less directly, of H. J. Muller and Ernst Mayr are all related to their earlier work in formulating synthetic evolution. By examining the variety of views held by nonphysical scientists, we can see that there were significant disagreements between them about evolution into the 1960s. By the mid-1980s, many believed that “higher” life, particularly intelligent life, probably occurs quite infrequently in the universe; nevertheless, some held out the possibility that convergence of intelligence could occur across worlds. Regardless of the final conclusions these scientists reached about the likely prevalence of extraterrestrial intelligence, the use of evolutionary arguments to support their positions became increasingly common.

There is stock argument against libertarianism: that the indeterminism it postulates makes human choice a matter of chance and this is no better as a basis for practical rationality and moral responsibility than the most rigid determinism.  I suggest that a similar problem arises on deterministic assumptions: although human choice is no longer a matter of mere chance, it remains arbitrary since whatever explains a person’s choice to act on the reasons for an action rather than those against, it is not a matter of reasons that were reasons FOR THAT PERSON.  The explanatory gap is closed in the wrong way for the impression of sheer arbitrariness to be cancelled.  I discuss (via a digression on F. H. Bradley) whether Davidson’s ‘anomalous monism’ would, if correct, necessitate any modification to this conclusion.  I also ask how the problem addressed in this paper relates to Galen Strawson’s rejection of the possibility of complete autonomy or self-determination.

In this work we look at one special case to provide a rational basis for the following assertion known as Statistical Law of Large Numbers:
If an event E has a constant probability p of occurrence on any one trial, and has occurred m times in n trials, then, if the relative frequency of E, m/n, approaches the value of a limit point l and the accuracy of the approximation increases as the number of trials increases, we have l = p.
The argument we propose is based on the concepts of "event" and "trial", formulated in a recent paper by the author himself, and their direct implications.

The John Cage pieces composed after 1950 bring to the center of the musical discussions the subject chance as a compositional tool and indeterminacy as a poetic proposal. The notion of a musical proposition where the composer apparently exempt himself from the sonorous result was a target for countless denunciations. On linking his choices in references as zen principles and the model of an anarchic society, Cage was considered less as a formal composer than an amateur philosopher. In this article we will try to discuss the Cage choice for this strategies of composition trying to bring to the surface the technical-musical necessities behind this choices and that can be useful in the re-insertion of his oeuvre inside the limits of a strict musical analysis.