SEPTEMBER 26, 2014

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THE TRUMPET WEEKLY THE TRUMPET WEEKLY
S E P T E MB E R 2 6 , 2 0 1 4
Germany exports arms, hypocrisy 4
Pope believes World War III has begun 5
The PetroYuan cometh 6
Russian central bank buys more gold 7
Babsons warning 9
BY BRAD MACDONALD
G
ermany announced September 1 that it had
decided to supply $90.4 million worth of weapons
and munitions to Kurdish forces fghting Islamic
State terrorists in Iraq. While most of the world breathed a
sigh of relief and wondered what took Berlin so long, two
groups of people were far less pleased about Berlins deci-
sion. Te frst, obviously, was the Islamic State.
Te second was the large majority of the German public.
An August 15 poll by Germanys Forsa Institute showed that
nearly two thirds (63 percent) of the German public opposes
the decision by its leaders to provide military aid to Iraqi
Kurds (a people routinely beheaded, hung and murdered by
Islamic State terrorists).
Te divergence between Germanys leaders and the
German public on the issue of arming the Iraqi Kurds is
signifcant. It is evidence that Germany is currently expe-
riencing a major identity crisis. Signifcant changes on the
world scenethe Islamic State, Russias aggression against
Ukraine, Libya, Americas contraction, Europes debt
crisis, etc., etc.are forcing German leaders and people to
reevaluate some fundamental questions: Who is Germany?
What is Germanys role in Europe? What is Germanys role
in the world in the st century?
We must pay close attention as the Germans answer
these questions. Teir answers will impact us all.
Germanys Identity Crisis
see CRISIS page 12
Members of the Bundeswehr prepare
the rst shipment of non-lethal military
hardware destined for Kurdish Peshmerga
troops in northern Iraq on September 4.
SEPTEMBER 26, 2014
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THE TRUMPET WEEKLY
MIDDLE EAST
ASIF HASSAN/AFP/GETTY IMAGES
Islamic State Brings
Together Persian Gulf
WASHINGTON POST | September 23
T
he four Persian Gulf nations whose
warplanes few in concert with U.S.
jets over Syria this week have spent the
past few years acting with far less har-
mony, driven by divergent approaches
to address the growth of Islamist po-
litical movements in the Arab world.
Te diferences among the coun-
tries have grown so stark and acri-
monious that earlier this year, Saudi
Arabia, the United Arab Emirates
and Bahrain withdrew their ambas-
sadors from Qatar, which has funded
Islamists across the region to the con-
sternation of the other three nations.
In the months that followed, they have
continued to wage a proxy war of sorts
U.S. Warned Iran
Before Bombing IS
MAIL ONLINE | September 24
T
he U.S. told Iran of its plans to
strike [Islamic State] militants
inside Syria in order to reassure them
thatSyrian President Bashar Assad
would not be targeted,a senior Ira-
nian ofcial has claimed.
Te communication, confrmed in
part by a senior U.S. State Department
ofcial, appears to signal a cooling in
hostilities between the U.S. and Iran
for the frst time since a 1979 hostage
crisis prompted Washington to sever
ties with Tehran.
Iran was concerned about Assads
position and his government be-
ing weakened in case of any action
against [the Islamic State] in Syria
and brought this issue up in meetings
with Americans, the senior Iranian
ofcial said,speaking on condition of
anonymity.
Te Iranian ofcial said Iran was
informed separately in advance of
the airstrikes launched by Washing-
ton and Arab allies against Islamic
State positions in Syria for the frst
time.
Asked about the assurance that
Syrian government forces would
not be targeted, the senior U.S. State
Department ofcial told Reuters: We
communicated our intentions, but
not specifc timing or targets, to the
Iranians. As weve said, we wont be
coordinating military action with
Iran. And of course we wont be shar-
ing intelligence with Iran either.
Te public communication has
included some mixed signals.
O
n September 6, militants attempted to capture
a Pakistani naval ship docked in the Arabian Sea,
thepnsZulfquar. Al Qaedas newly formed South Asia
wing claimed responsibility for the attack, saying it
planned to use the hijacked ship to attack United States
Navy vessels in the area.
According to aPakistani security ofcial, rogue military
personnel planned to take over the ship then join other
alQaeda members who would make up the crew. Once
close to American ships, they planned to attack the unsus-
pecting vessels. However, the rogue ofcers were discov-
ered and killed before they could carry out their plan.
Te goal of al Qaedas South Asia wing, created in early
September, is toconvert non-believersin the area. Evident-
ly, it is having success in Pakistan. Tis attempted attack
shows how imbedded al Qaeda is becoming in Pakistan
even among the ofcer class. How
did the infltrators sneak on board
the Pakistani vessel? Tey didnt.
According to aPakistani security
ofcial, Te rogue ofcers were
in uniform and had their service
cards displayed. Tey simply
walked on board.
What would stop other al
Qaeda recruits from walking into another division of the
military, such as the air force, to get their hands on other
sophisticated equipment? What if they seized something
more lethal? What if al Qaeda recruits in the Pakistani
military seized nuclear weapons?
As Trumpet writer Jeremiah Jacques recently noted,
Pakistan is incredibly unstable. Te
unrest has unnerved the country
where power is ofen transferred by
military coups instead of elections,
he wrote, in reference to demonstra-
tions against Prime Minister Nawaz
Sharif in mid-August. Tere is great
concern in the international com-
munity regarding the nuclear power
of Pakistan. How easily could al Qaeda initiate a coup within
the Pakistani military, giving it access to nuclear weapons?
Al Qaeda Attempts to Seize Pakistani Frigate
Daryle Hochstetler | September 24
Pakistan also has the nuclear bomb and
could be taken over by radical Islam, with
plenty of help from Iran. That means it could
become a proxy of the Iranian mullahs. This
would be the worst possible disaster!
Gerald Flurry, Trumpet, January 2008
Pakistani Navy cadets
SEPTEMBER 26, 2014
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THE TRUMPET WEEKLY
in Egypt and Libya, where the U.A.E.
recently conducted airstrikes against
rebels backed by Qatar.
Qatars neighbors accused it of
bankrolling terrorists. Qataris accused
their neighbors of supporting strong-
men who subvert the will of the people.
But with the Islamic State waving
its black fag at the gates of Baghdad,
Persian Gulf nations have decided to
set aside their diferences.
Te airstrikes in Syria were an un-
precedented act of Arab military co-
operation that involved Saudi Arabia
bombing fellow Sunni Muslims, the
launching of U.S. F-22 Raptor war-
planesemployed in combat for the
frst timefrom a base in the U.A.E.,
and the Royal Bahrain Air Force fy-
ing its inaugural combat missions.
Tis wasand we hope will con-
tinue to bea remarkable act of part-
nership among our allies in the gulf,
said a senior U.S. military ofcial.
Te Islamic State represents a
real and present danger to the four
countries and to Jordan, which also
joined in the military operation, said
Teodore Karasik, the director of
research at the Institute for Near East
and Gulf Military Analysis in Dubai,
the U.A.E.s largest city. Tat threat,
he said, has been deemed by the
countries to be greater than what was
happening among them.
Karzai: U.S. Has Not
Wanted Peace
FOX NEWS | September 24
O
utgoing Afghanistan President
Hamid Karzai took one fnal swipe
at the U.S. Tuesday, telling a gather-
ing of Afghan government employees
that the 13-year American-led military
action had failed to bring peace to his
country.
We dont have peace because the
Americans didnt want peace, said
Karzai, who will ofcially give way to
President-elect Ashraf Ghani Ah-
madzai when the latter is sworn in
Monday. If America and Pakistan
really want it, peace will come to Af-
ghanistan, Karzai added, referring to
his countrys eastern neighbor as well
as the U.S. Te war in Afghanistan
is to the beneft of foreigners. But Af-
ghans on both sides are the sacrifcial
lambs and victims of this war.
Karzai also thanked a number of
countries for their eforts in Af-
ghanistanIndia, Japan, China, Iran,
Turkey, Saudi Arabia, South Korea and
Germanywithout thanking the U.S.
Karzais words were met with a
furious response by the American am-
bassador to Afghanistan, James Cun-
ningham, who called the comments
ungracious and ungrateful.
Karzais spokesman Aimal Faizi
told the Washington Post that while
the president appreciates the eforts of
U.S. troops and taxpayers to rebuild
the war torn country, he also believes
that the U.S. did not do enough to
confront Pakistan-backed militants in
the country and that Washington and
Islamabad sabotaged eforts to reach
a peace deal with the Taliban.
Te United States has spent more
than $100 billion on aid in Afghani-
stan since 2001 to train and equip
the countrys security forces, to pave
crumbling dirt roads, to upgrade
hospitals, and to build schools. More
than 2,200 U.S. forces have died in
Afghanistan operations since 2001.
Nearly 20,000 have been wounded.
A
s the Iran-P5+1 nuclear talks continue in New York,
Iran may employ the latest lever that emerged in its
negotiations tool kit: the Islamic State.
An Iranian ofcial who spoke with Reuters Sunday on
condition of anonymity said his country is ready to work
with the United States to fght Islamic State militants if the
West showsfexibility in the ongoing nuclear negotiations.
Military cooperation between Iran and the United States
has been a complicated and controversial issue that neither
side has been willing to entertain, much less publicize. Ob-
servers have had to fne-tune their analytical dials amid an
array of mixed signals from both sides.
Iran has indirectly cooperated with the U.S. by support-
ing Shia and Kurdish Peshmerga militants in their fght
against the Islamic State. Earlier this month, Irans Ayatol-
lah Khamenei reportedly authorized Gen. Qasem Solei-
mani, commander of Irans elite Quds Force, to work with
the U.S.against the terrorists in Iraq. Iran later denied that
report and has since been much more critical of the U.S.
Last week, Khamenei clarifed that Iran would not
cooperate with the United States against the Islamic State,
saying Americas hands were dirty and intentions murky.
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani derided U.S. strategy as
ridiculous.
As far back as June, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry
spoke of the possibility of working with Iran. He said the U.S.
was open to discussions with Iran and that it would not
rule out anything. But Kerry responded to questions raised
by Sen. Marco Rubio at a Senate Foreign Relations Commit-
tee hearing on September 17 by insisting that he never said
anything about coordinating with Iran or Syria. But, he
said, If we are failing and failing miserably, who knows what
choice they might make in an efort to take on [the Islamic
State]. Two days later, Secretary Kerry said at a United Na-
tions Security Council meeting on Iraq that there is a role
for nearly every country in the world to play,including Iran.
Te murkiness surrounding United States-Iran coopera-
tion shows just how much leverage Iran can wield in nuclear
negotiations when it comes to fghting the Islamic State.
Indecisive action on Iraq, Syria and Iran is haunting
America and empowering some of the nations fercest
enemies. We can expect these efects to continue getting
worse, as our Trumpet Daily program America Urges
Mortal Enemy to Save Iraq explains.
Iran May Work With the U.S. Against Islamic State
Anthony Chibarirwe | September 24
Related: Spent in Vain
SEPTEMBER 26, 2014
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THE TRUMPET WEEKLY
EUROPE
Y
esterday Pope Francis preached one of the most
extraordinary sermons ever delivered by a pope, one
that demonstrates the laziness of those commentators who
think he is a typical Latin American liberal. It put center
stage a teaching of the Church that Ive never heard dis-
cussed in a Catholic homily: the physical resurrection of all
saved Christians at the apocalypse.
Te pope told the early-morning congregation in his hos-
tel that Catholics are afraid to contemplate the doctrineof
overwhelming importance to the early Christiansthat
their bodies (however physically destroyed on Earth) will
rise from the dead: Perhaps we are not so much afraid
of the apocalypse of the evil one, of the antichrist who must
come frstperhaps we are not so afraid [of him]. Perhaps
we are not so afraid of the voice of the archangel or the
sound of his trumpet . Fear of our resurrection, however,
we have: we shall all be transformed. Tat transformation
shall be the end of our Christian journey.
Te rapture is a Protestant concept, formulated by
fundamentalists who devised a complicated timetable of
the end times known as premillennial dispensationalism.
Im not really suggesting that Pope Francis subscribes to
it. But, as his sermon yesterday shows, he believes in the
literal truth of St. Pauls declaration that if the dead are
not raised, then Christ has not been raised (1 Corinthi-
ans15:16). And also, he believes that the dead in Christ
will raise frst; then we who are alive, who are lef, shall be
caught up together with them in the clouds to meet the
Lord in the air . Tat is from Pauls frst letter to the
Tessalonians (4:16-17) which is thought to be the oldest
surviving Christian document, predating the Gospels.
Te truth is, though, that Catholics rarely ponder these
prophecies. Te institutional church has sidelined the
apocalypse, the subject that preoccupied the frst Chris-
tians more than any other.
Francis is therefore saying something that should make his
fock very uncomfortable: Oh, you expect us to believethat?
Liberal Catholics whothink they can materialize the King-
dom of Heaven by establishing justice and peace on Earth
will be puzzled, even dismayed, by such literalism .
What an unusual pope he is: Not only does he men-
tionthe devil with unnerving frequency, but he also
viewsthe evil one in the context of the Bibles detailed (if
bafing) narrative of the end times. He reminds us that
orthodox Christianity is far stranger than one would
gatherby attending the average mass, at which congrega-
tions mumble the wordsthe resurrection of the dead
withoutimagining themselves clothed in celestial garments
before the Lamb. Seen in this light, Francisdespite his
distaste for fancy vestments and old rite ceremonialhas
proved his traditionalist credentials by reviving the oldest
Christian tradition of all.
Does Pope Francis Believe in the Rapture?
Damian Thompson, SPECTATOR BLOG | September 20
Germany Exports
Arms, Hypocrisy
REUTERS | September 22
W
ho is the worlds No. 3 arms
exporter, afer the United States
and Russia? Surprise. It is Germany, a
country bound by law to supply only
allies and peaceable folks like (neutral)
Switzerland or Sweden. Of limits are
areas of tensionbad neighborhoods
that actually need the stuf.
Yet somehow, Israel and Saudi Ara-
bia, both living in the worlds powder
keg, are among Germanys best cus-
tomers. So are Algeria, Qatar andthe
United Arab Emirates.
But never, ever has Germany de-
livered to nonstate forces. Tis month
marks a profound break with that
tradition. Germany has agreed to send
weapons to the Kurdish Workers Party,
or pkk, a military and political group
in northern Iraq, with the bulk of more
sophisticated arms going to the Pesh-
merga forces. Not exactly buddies, these
two outfts are fghting the Islamic State.
Te Kurdish Workers Party is due
to receive 8,000 G3 assault rifesal-
most museum piecesthat were
issued to the German armed forces in
1959. Te Peshmerga forces get more
recent hardware: 8,000 G36, the cur-
rent rife of the German Army. Plus 30
anti-tank systems with 500 missiles.
Add in a few tens of shoulder-held
anti-tank rockets, 40 machine guns
and 10,000 hand grenades. Te pack-
age is worth about $90 million.
Consider the modest arms deliver-
ies as a substitute for interventiona
time-honored tradition of nations
that would rather not march and fght.
Germany has fown along over Serbia
during the Bosnia wars, and it has
dispatched ground troops to Afghani-
stan. But compared to the ferce Ger-
man onslaughts in World War i and ii,
todays Germany is as aggressive as a
pussycat.
Yet the Germans could theoretically
join the British and French on bomb-
ing missions against Islamic State
fghters. Right now, that is a no-no, so
arms deliveries are acting as a nice
substitute.
As the most recent murder of a
British aid worker shows, Islamic State
is unlikely to end this horror soon.
It is part of the plan. Assume, for
example, a German is slaughtered on
YouTube. Tough the German public
is now strongly anti-involvement, they
may recoil in righteous anger. Such
grisly events turn moods and long-
held convictions.
If so, German bombs might follow
the surplus weapons into Iraq.
SEPTEMBER 26, 2014
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THE TRUMPET WEEKLY
Germanys UKIP
Threatens Eurozone
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard,
TELEGRAPH | September 23
T
he stunning rise of Germanys
anti-euro party threatens to paralyze
eforts to hold the eurozone together
and may undermine any quantitative
easing by the European Central Bank
(ecb), Standard & Poors has warned.
Alternative fr Deutschland (AfD)
has swept through Germany like a
tornado, winning 12.6 percent of the
vote in Brandenburg and 10.6 percent
in Turingia a week ago.
Te rating agency said AfDs sud-
den surge has become a credit head-
ache for the whole eurozone, forcing
Chancellor Angela Merkel to take a
tougher line in European politics and
risking an entirely new phase of the
crisis. Until recently, no openly Eu-
roskeptic party in Germany has been
able to galvanize opponents of Euro-
pean bailouts. But this comfortable
position now appears to have come to
an end, it said.
Te report warned that AfD has up-
set the chemistry of German politics,
implying even greater resistance to
any loosening of emu [Economic and
Monetary Union] fscal rules.
Tere has long been anger in
Germany over the direction of emu
politics, with a near universal feel-
ing that German taxpayers are being
milked to prop up southern Europe,
but dissidents were, until now, scat-
tered. AfD appears to enjoy a disci-
plined leadership, and is a well-funded
party appealing to conservatives more
broadly, beyond its europhobe core,
it said. Tis shif in the partisan land-
scape could have implications for euro
area policies by diminishing the Ger-
man governments room for maneuver.
We will monitor any signs of Germany
hardening its stance.
Ms. Merkel has a threat akin to
ukip on her right fank, and can no
longer pivot in the center ground of
German politics. AfD has almost
destroyed the center-right Free Demo-
crats (fdp), and is also eating into the
far-lef of the Linke party.
Te new movement calls for an
orderly breakup of monetary union,
either by dividing the euro into
smaller blocs or by returning to na-
tional currencies. Unlike ukip, the
movement wants Germany to stay in a
strong EU.
Party leader Bernd Lucke is a
professor of economics at Hamburg
University. His right-hand man is
Hans-Olaf Henkel, former head of
Germanys industry federation. At-
tempts to discredit the party as a
right-wing fringe group have failed.
Professor Lucke had a taste of his
new power in the European Parliament
this week, questioning the ecbs Mario
Draghi directly on monetary policy.
Te report warned that any sign of
hardening attitudes in German poli-
tics could diminish the confdence
of fnancial investors in the robust-
ness of multilateral support for emu
crisis states, leading to a rise in bond
spreads. Tis, in turn, would shif the
focus back on to Club Med debt dy-
namics, arguably worse than ever.
Te political climate in the euro-
zones two core states is now extraor-
dinary. A [deutsche mark] party is
running at 10 percent in the latest
polls in Germany, while the Front
Nationals Marine Le Pen is in the lead
in France on 26 percent with calls for
a return to the franc. One more shock
would test emu cohesion to its limits.
T
he pope believes that World War iii had already begun.
But unlike World War i and World War ii that happened
all at once, the current war is happening in stagesthis he
said during a private meeting with a congregation of Jew-
ish leaders headed by Ronald S. Lauder on September 17 at
[the] popes house in Santa Marta.
Speaking during the World Jewish Congress press
conference, Lauder had quoted the pope to highlight the
signifcant point of discussion that came out of the meet-
ing. He said that the pope compared the current attacks
against Christians to the plight sufered by the Jews in the
past. Lauder said that they were in absolute agreement in
condemning the rampant and savage killing of Christians
in the Middle East.
He said, frst it was your turn, and now it is our turn.
In other words, frst Jews sufered savage attacks that were
met with the worlds silence and now it is Christians who
are being annihilated and the world is silent, Lauder ex-
pounded.
Lauder, on the other hand, is personally shocked at how
people and countries around the world seemed not to be
petrifed about the extensive killing of Christians in Iraq
and Syria. [W]hile there had been a tremendous attention
[on] Israel as it shielded itself against thousands of missiles
fred at it by the terrorists, how come that there was not
a word for the thousands of Christians in Iraq, Syria and
the Middle East? He underlined that Israel is the only safe
country in the Middle East for Christians. In Israel, Chris-
tians can populate. Te world does not have the luxury of
remaining silent, he reiterated.
Lauder, a businessman and a philanthropist and the
son of cosmetics giant Estee Lauder, [has] been calling the
worlds attention on the oppression of Christians. Te
Middle East and parts of central Africa are losing entire
Christian communities that have lived in peace for centu-
ries, he wrote in a recent op-edpublished in the New York
Times.
Te pope had frst spoken of World War iii during a
centenary celebration of World War i at the Redipuglia
cemetery in Italy. At that time, he described the war as a
piecemeal. From his homily, it was obvious that he is not
strange to the pain sufered during war. His grandfather
had fought during the Austro-Hungarian empire in 1917-
1918.
Pope Believes World War III Has Begun
Athena Yenko, INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS TIMES | September 22
SEPTEMBER 26, 2014
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THE TRUMPET WEEKLY
TW I N B R I E F
n Germany deploys troops to fight
Ebola
Germany agreed on September 19
to deploy as many as 100 soldiers to
Senegal as part of a combined French-
German mission to deliver desperately
needed supplies to combat the Ebola
virus. Te troops will man a base
in Dakar, from which two German
Transall military transport planes will
fy supplies to the surrounding areas.
France will also provide planes. Ger-
many hopes to use its militarys logis-
tics to collect aid from its neighbors
ASIA
Chinas Refusal to
Grant Full Democracy
DAILY MAIL | September 22
T
housands of students converged
on a university campus in Hong
Kong today, launching a week-long
boycott of classes in protest against
Beijings decision to rule out fully
democratic elections in the former
British colony.
Students from more than 20 uni-
versities and colleges streamed into
the grounds of picturesque, bay-side
Chinese University of Hong Kong,
where they were greeted by banners
that said: Te boycott must happen.
Disobey and grasp your destiny.
Some sat in a circle playing guitars,
while others folded leafets urging
students to boycott classes in a protest
which coincides with a trip to Beijing
by some of Hong Kongs most power-
ful business tycoons, who are expected
to talk about government policies with
Chinese leader Xi Jinping.
Beijing decided in August to rule
out open nominations for candidates
under proposed guidelines for the
frst-ever elections to choose the citys
top leader, which have been promised
for 2017.
Te National Peoples Congress,
Chinas legislature, instead insists that
candidates be vetted by an elite com-
mittee that is similar to the body of
mostly pro-Beijing elites that has until
now selected the citys leaders.De-
mocracy groups reject such screening
for loyalty to Beijing and demand elec-
tions that ofer a genuine choice.
The PetroYuan Cometh
ZEROHEDGE | September 21
S
ince China fred its frst ofcial
shot across the Petrodollar bow a
year ago, there has been an increas-
ing groundswell of de-dollarization
across the worlds energy trade
(despite Washingtons exclamations
of isolated non-dollar transactors).
Te rise of the PetroYuan has not been
far from our headlines in the last year,
with China increasingly leveraging its
rise as an economic power and as the
most important incremental market
for hydrocarbon exporters, in the Per-
sian Gulf and the former Soviet Union,
to circumscribe dollar dominance
in global energywith potentially
profound ramifcations for Americas
strategic position. And now, as AP
reports, for the frst time in history,
China has docked a Navy Destroyer in
the southern Iranian port of Bandar
Abbasright across the Strait of Hor-
muz from U.S. stronghold-for-now
Bahrain and U.A.E.
AP reports : Adm. Hossein Azad,
naval base chief in the southern port
of Bandar Abbas, said the four-day
visit that began Saturday saw the two
navies sharing expertise in the feld
of marine rescue. On the last day
of their visit while leaving Iran, the
Chinese warships will stage a joint
drill in line with mutual collaboration,
and exchange of marine and technical
information, particularly in the feld
of aid and rescue, said Azad.
Te report said the destroyer was
accompanied by a logistics ship, and
that both were on their way to the
Gulf of Aden as a part of an interna-
tional mission to combat piracy.
Te move is also seen [as] part of ef-
forts by Iran to strike a balance among
foreign navies present in the area near
the strategic Strait of Hormuz, the
passageway at the mouth of the Per-
sian Gulf through which a ffh of the
worlds oil is shipped.
U.S. Navys 5th Fleet is based in
nearby Bahrain, on the southern coast
of the Gulf.
and transport them to aficted areas.
Te German armed forces will also set
up a treatment center in Liberia, and
the French will build one in Guinea.
Each will contain 50 beds. Germany
is notoriously reluctant to deploy its
armed forces. Two thirds of Germans,
for example, oppose arming Iraqs
Kurds. But here is an opportunity to
use the German Army in an un-
ambiguously good way. Teres no
evidence that Germanys motivations
are anything other than as stated.
Tere is a crisis: Over 2,600 people
have died in the worst outbreak of
the Ebola virus on record. And the
German Army can help. Tis is proof
that the German Army can be a force
for good. What better way to persuade
deployment-suspicious Germans that
there are times to call in the mili-
tary? As an event on its own, this use
of the German military is a positive
development. But it is also part of the
trend where German leaders are try-
ing to persuade the public to support
a greater use of the military. For more
on this trend, and its consequences,
read our article Germanys Identity
Crisis.
Related: Hong Kong Hang-Ups
Chinas one country, two systems prin-
ciple for ruling Hong Kong is becoming
more of a one country, our system.
Continue to watch as China strengthens
its grip over Hong Kong, consolidating
its power in East Asia.
Trumpet, May 2004
SEPTEMBER 26, 2014
7
THE TRUMPET WEEKLY
History and logic caution that
current practices are not set in stone.
With the rise of the PetroYuan,
movement towards a less dollar-centric
currency regime in international en-
ergy marketswith potentially serious
implications for the dollars broader
standingis already underway.
As China has emerged as a major
player on the global energy scene, it has
also embarked on an extended cam-
paign to internationalize its currency.
A rising share of Chinas external trade
is being denominated and settled in
renminbi [the ofcial currency of
China]; issuance of renminbi-denomi-
nated fnancial instruments is growing.
Te Peoples Bank of China (pboc)
now has swap arrangements with over
30 other central banksmeaning that
renminbi already efectively functions
as a reserve currency.
Chinese policymakers appreciate
the advantages of incumbency the
dollar enjoys; their aim is not for ren-
minbi to replace dollars, but to position
the yuan alongside the greenback as a
transactional and reserve currency. Be-
sides economic benefts (e.g., lowering
Chinese businesses foreign exchange
costs), Beijing wantsfor strategic
reasonsto slow further growth of its
enormous dollar reserves. China has
watched Americas increasing propen-
sity to cut of countries from the U.S.
fnancial system as a foreign policy
tool, and worries about Washington
trying to leverage it this way; renminbi
internationalization can mitigate such
vulnerability. More broadly, Beijing
understands the importance of dollar
dominance to American power; by
chipping away at it, China can contain
excessive U.S. unilateralism.
And as America is increasingly
viewed as a hegemon in relative decline,
China is seen as the preeminent rising
power. Even for Gulf Arab states long
reliant on Washington as their ultimate
security guarantor, this makes closer
ties to Beijing an imperative strate-
gic hedge. For Russia, deteriorating
relations with the United States impel
deeper cooperation with China, against
what both Moscow and Beijing con-
sider a declining, yet still dangerously
failing and over-reactive, America.
China Is Interested in
the Fight Against ISIS
BUSINESS INSIDER | September 22
T
he Islamic State is fush with cash,
territorially ambitious, and eager for
recognition.
But is [the Islamic State] a threat
to China? Would China be willing
to lend its support to an international
coalition against this growing threat
to world security?
W
hile we will probably have to wait another few days
until the imf [International Monetary Fund] pub-
lishes its latest statistics for the global picture, the Russian
central bank has announced that it has added another 9.3
tons of gold to its ofcial gold reserves. Tis is as tensions
now seem to be diminishing in Ukraine which could, if the
latest agreement holds, lead to Western sanctions against
Russia being gradually withdrawn.
Russian gold reserves now stand at 1,113.5 tons, the
worlds ffh-largest national holding, thus climbing even
further above Chinas ofcial 1,054 tons. However few out
there seem to believe that China doesnt have more gold
than it announces to the imf, but is holding considerable
amounts in some other government controlled accounts.
Overall, Russia has just about doubled its gold reserves
since the 2007-2008 fnancial crisis and its central bank
has been a net buyer almost every month since. Te fgures
suggest that that the monthly increases have primarily
come from the central bank taking in a signifcant propor-
tion of the countrys domestic gold output which averaged
around 20 tons a month in 2013; last year Russia was the
worlds third-largest producer of gold and this year could
surpass Australia and move into the No. 2 position behind
China.
In parallel with its pursuit of gold, Russia continues to
build its bilateral fnancial and trade relationships with
China. At the beginning of this month Russias President
Putin and Chinese Vice Premier Zhang Gaoli ofcially
launched the construction of the frst part of Russias
Gazproms Power of Siberia pipelinewhich will deliver 4
trillion cubic meters of gas to China over 30 years. [T]he
pipeline schedule calls for frst natural gas deliveries in 2019.
When completed, at an estimated cost of some $70bil-
lion, it will have been, according to the Russian and
Chinese ofcials, the worlds largest construction project
with the pipeline running for just under 4,000 kilometers
(2,486 miles), plus associated infrastructure, and supply gas
to Chinas populous northeastern region, as well as Russias
Far East. China is due to start pipeline construction at its
end next year.
Russia, like China, perhaps somewhat belatedly, has
come to see its gold holdings as a signifcant positive in any
new world fnancial order that may develop over the next
decade. American fnancial policy has dominated world
trade for almost a century but there are powerful economic
forces out therenotably involving various countries, in-
cluding China and Russia, building trade ties in their own
domestic currencies and thus starting to bypass the dollar.
Energy trade is particularly signifcant in this respect, as
the U.S. dominance in setting the terms of world trade has
been very much down to the virtually total dominance of
the dollar in global oil and gas transactions.
Historically, the country with the most gold has been
able to dominate global tradebarbarous relic or noand
while the West may see this coming to an end there is an
enormous, and ever wealthier, part of the worlds popula-
tion which still believes in gold as the key global monetary
asset. China and Russia are both strong believers in gold
and the potential negotiating position it enables. At some
stage soon, the validity of their belief is going to be put to
the test.
Russia CB Buys More Gold
MINEWEB | September 22
SEPTEMBER 26, 2014
8
THE TRUMPET WEEKLY
Te Communist Party has long
insisted on refusing to interfere with
the internal afairs of sovereign states,
a policy pointedly directed at other
powers to stay out of Chinas domestic
matters. But Beijings statusas the
worlds second-biggest economy, with
an increasingly powerful militaryis
bringing with it the uncomfortable re-
alization that such a simplistic stance
is getting tougher to maintain.
China now has its own overseas
interests to protect .
In fact, as a gathering of scholars at
an international conference in Stock-
holm recently concluded, China has
been a main benefciary of Russias
aggression, securing a 30-year gas deal
(long in the pipeline), oil and arms
exports, energy exports and regional
solidarity with its erstwhile foeall
while (or by) doing nothing.
Te Islamic State may be a diferent
matter, however. Te terrorist group
is already seeding unlikely alliances
against it, such as Syrias President
Assad, Iran and the [U.S.]. [Te Islam-
ic State] has included China among a
list of avowed enemies and, reportedly,
a Chinese national fghting for [the
Islamic State] has already been cap-
tured by Iraqi forces, a fact that MoFA
says they are verifying, while police
in Indonesia say they have arrested
four Chinese men accused of traveling
there with the intent of connecting
with a local [Islamic State] chief.
Asias New
Co-op Organization
BUSINESS KOREA | September 19
K
orea, China, Russia and Mongo-
lia have agreed to form an inter-
national organization for economic
cooperation within the region of
Northeast Asia.
Te Ministry of Strategy and
Finance announced on September 18
T
heres breaking news about China and cyberwar-
fare(aka the ffh domain of war).
Te news concerns serious hacking by Chinas 3pla
groupthe 100,000-strong computer army thats mostly
responsible for what is referred to as Chinese military
signals intelligence.
Te latest targets of Chinese hacking include contrac-
tors who perform critical work for a major U.S. military
command.
Looking ahead, I foresee signifcant new levels of fund-
ing for a small number of U.S. companies that know how to
fght in this kind of dark room.
In a recent drive through New York City, my taxi driv-
erand I, to be surebenefted from whats called the In-
ternet of Tings. Tat is, a network in which many things
are connected and communicating with many other things.
Indeed, were well on the way to a world in which ev-
erything is connected to everything else, in a fashion
its relatively easy for a trained hacker to infltrate networks
of most civilian companies.
New York has bought into the Smart City concept .
All manner of cameras and sensors fed trafc data into
an array of sofware. Te sofware, in turn, supports open
and restricted apps that assist peopletaxi drivers, deliv-
ery trucks, public transit, cops, frefghters and morein
navigating to and fro.
Broadly speaking, the Internet of Tings is a network
that should make life and work easier. Ten again, that
same network may also be our downfall.
Indeed, theres worrisome news. Two weeks ago, the
Senate Armed Services Committee (sasc) released a report
about Chinese military computer hackers. Over a one-year
period, sasc identifed 20 successful breaches against data
systems of companies that perform critical work for the
U.S. Transportation Command (transcom).
In essence, transcom moves troops and equipment
for the U.S. Department of Defense (dod), as well as other
government agencies, plus allies and partners.
To perform these movements, transcom relies, in large
part, on an extensive network of companies. Specifcally,
transcom uses passenger and cargo airlines, ship opera-
tors, railways and trucking companies.
Te sasc report does not specify hacked companies.
However, per Bloomberg News, the list may include FedEx,
Evergreen Holdings., A.P. Moeller-Maersk A/S, United
Parcel Service and Neptune Orient Lines. All of these frms
have global operations, tied together by extensive computer
systems, other hardware and vast amounts of sofware.
In other words, moving military people and cargo these
days is kind of like taking a fast, efcient, data-assisted taxi
ride from lower Manhattan to LaGuardia, but on a larger
scale.
Pretty much all dod computer networks are heavily
fortifed nowadays; its tough for outsiders to get in without
triggering alarms. On the other hand, its relatively easy
for a trained hacker to infltrate networks of most civilian
companies.
In fact, transcom has acknowledged that the structure
of its communication system with outside vendors make
these kind of non-military, non-hardened channels more
vulnerable to cyberattack.
Te recent sasc report noted at least 20 successful intru-
sions on behalf of the Chinese government. Hackers
compromised multiple systems within merchant ships,
as wellwhich could include remote engine controls, plus
environment and navigation systems.
As U.S. contractors get hacked, its becoming crystal
clear that the Chinese military is highly profcient and
professional in its approach to cyberintrusion. All in all,
its a very Sun Tzu-oriented approach to deception, and to
defeating enemies without having to engage in raw battle, if
you are a student of the ancient strategist.
The China Story No Ones Talking About
Byron King, DAILY RECKONING | September 23
SEPTEMBER 26, 2014
9
THE TRUMPET WEEKLY
that participating countries of the
Greater Tumen Initiative (gti) agreed
to transform gti into an international
organization to initiate economic co-
operation in Northeast Asia by 2016.
Tese four countries agreed to
develop transportation in land and sea
routes, facilitate the trading among
Northeast Asian countries, solve the
power transmission problems and
analyze the business feasibility of coal
extracted synthetic natural gas supply
through a joint statement.
On this day, an inaugural assembly
of Northeast Asian Export-Import
Banks Council, in which export-
import banks of four countries
participated, was held to adopt a basic
agreement on cooperation among the
banks for joint project explorations
and supportive loans.
Indias Mars Mission
Pride of Asia
INDIA TODAY | September 24
C
hina, on Wednesday, hailed Indias
successful Mars orbiter mission
the frst such success by an Asian
countryas the pride of India and
the pride of Asia, and said it was in-
terested in working together with the
Indian Space Research Organization
on future projects.
We congratulate India on the Mars
satellite for entering orbit successfully,
Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hua
Chunying said.
Tis is the pride of India and the
pride of Asia, and is a landmark prog-
ress in humankinds exploration of
outer space so we congratulate India
on that, Ms. Hua said.
China has invested billions in its
space program, and plans to launch
a space station by 2020. In December,
China carried out a landmark sof
landing on the moonthe frst by
any nation since the United States and
erstwhile Soviet Union.
Russia Will Add 80
New Warships
REUTERS | September 23
R
ussia will increase its Black
Sea feet with more than 80 new
warships by 2020 and will complete
a second naval base for the feet near
the city of Novorossiysk by 2016, its
commander said on Tuesday.
In comments made to President
Vladimir Putin as he visited the port
city, Vice Adm. Alexander Vitko said
a second Black Sea base was needed
in addition to the main base on the
Crimean Peninsula annexed from
Ukraine because of nato expansion.
Eighty ships and other vessels are
expected to arrive (in Novorossiysk)
before 2020. Te Black Sea Fleet will
have 206 ships and vessels by 2020,
Vitko told Putin.
Russia plans to spend 21 trillion
rubles (us$545 billion) by the end of
the decade on refurbishing Russias
armed forces. Some of those funds
will be used to improve the defense
infrastructure of Crimea.
ANGLO-AMERICA
Babsons Warning
Jeff Thomas, INTERNATIONAL
MAN | September 21
A
crash is coming, and it may be
terrifc. Te vicious circle will
get in full swing and the result will be a
serious business depression. Tere may
be a stampede for selling which will ex-
ceed anything that the stock exchange
has ever witnessed. Wise are those
investors who now get out of debt.
Te above words could easily have
been stated by me or another of the
(very) few others who currently predict
the coming of crashes in the markets.
But they were not. Te statements
above were made by investor Roger
Babson at a speech at the Annual
Business Conference in Massachusetts
on Sept. 5, 1929.
Mr. Babsons prediction was not
a sudden one. In fact, he had been
making the same prediction for the
previous two years, although he, in
September of 1929, felt the crash was
much closer.
News of his speech reached Wall
Street by mid-afernoon, causing the
market to retreat about 3 percent. Te
sudden decline was named the Bab-
son Break.
Te reaction from business insiders
was immediate. Rather than respond
by saying, Tanks for the warning
well proceed cautiously, Wall Street
vilifed him. Te Chicago Tribune pub-
lished numerous rebufs from a host of
economists and Wall Street leaders.
Even Mr. Babsons patriotism was
taken into question for making so
rash a projection. Noted economist
Prof. Irving Fisher stated emphatically,
Tere may be a recession in stock
prices, but not anything in the nature
of a crash. He and many others
repeatedly soothed investors, advising
them that a resumption in the boom
was imminent. Financier Bernard
Baruch famously cabled Winston
Churchill, Financial storm def-
nitely passed. Even President Herbert
Hoover assured Americans that the
market was sound.
But, 55 days afer Mr. Babsons
speech, on Oct. 29, 1929, the market
suddenly went into a free-fall, drop-
ping 12 percent in its frst day.
Today, most people have the general
impression that on Black Friday, the
Under President Putins reign, nuclear-
armed Russia is transforming its
military machine into a modern, techno-
logical, 21st-century force. This world
has a lot of authoritarian rulers. But
Vladimir Putin is one we need to keep a
particularly close eye on.
Gerald Flurry. Trumpet, February 2014
Related: Vladimir Putin Is the Prophesied
Prince of Russia.
SEPTEMBER 26, 2014
10
THE TRUMPET WEEKLY
market crashed and almost immedi-
ately, there were breadlines. Not so. In
the Great Depression, as in any depres-
sion, the market collapsed in stages.
Te market did not reach its bottom of
89 percent losses until July of 1932.
Along the way, thousands of banks
and lending institutions went belly-up.
Tirteen million jobs disappeared.
And of course, the political leaders
of the day did their bit. Tey imple-
mented knee-jerk solutions that actu-
ally worsened the situation. Restrictive
tarifs, gold confscation, and a more
dominant government were employed,
just as they will be this time around.
So, as the market tumbled, we
would imagine that Babson came
to be praised by Wall Street for his
insight, but in fact, the opposite oc-
curred. Having accused him of being
utterly incorrect in September, they
later accused him of having caused the
depression.
So what do we take away from this?
First, we can be certain that as the pres-
ent-day house of cards begins to shake,
there will be no warnings from Wall
Street. In fact, quite the opposite. Teir
bread gets buttered by buyers. Tey will
be adamant (and even, in many cases,
truly believe) that the sky is the limit
and investors should buy, buy, buy, as
there are fortunes to be made by doing
so. And investors, watching the rise,
will fall all over each other, just as in
1929, buying with both hands.
Tis time around, the crash and its
byproducts will be more extreme than
in 1929, as the bubble itself is more
extreme. And Wall Street can count
on television and a media that has a
vested interest in keeping the charade
going as long as possible. It will also
be more extreme, as the governments
of much of the world are now broke
and can only worsen their respective
economies through the customary
solutions that governments always
employtarifs, confscations, greater
government control, etc.
Finally, the afermath will be more
extreme, asunlike in 1929, when
most people actually believed in the
governmentthis time around, there
will be dramatic unrest.
Just as in 1929, those who are
declaring that the emperor has no
clothes are few in number, and their
viewpoint is most certainly not put
forth in the conventional media. For
this reason, its understandable that
the great majority of people invari-
ably ignore the Babsons of the world
as Chicken Littles and blithely charge
toward the clif like lemmings.
Believing Gods Promise
to David
God promised King David that his dynasty would continuenot for
a century, not for a millennium, but for eternity.
GERALD FLURRY
Tose who do think independently
and become convinced that history is
repeating itself are focusing their at-
tention on fnding a way out of being a
casualty in the train wreck thats com-
ing. Tis is difcult to do, as invari-
ably, the closer the event becomes, the
more difcult it is to swim against the
tide. For this reason, even many who
conclude that the end is near ofen
fail to act to save themselves and their
families.
U.S.: 1 in 10 Adults Not
Procient in English
THE NATIONAL REVIEW | September 24
T
he number of working-age adults
in the United States with limited
profciency in English has more than
doubled since 1980, according to a new
Brookings Institution study.
English profciency is a strong pre-
dictor of economic standing among
immigrants, regardless of the amount
of education they have attained, and it
is associated with the greater academic
and economic success of the workers
children, the study found.
Te Wall Street Journal reports that
the rise comes out to nearly one in 10
adults who lack sufcient English skills,
2 times more than three decades ago.
Two thirds of those lacking profciency
are Spanish speakers.
In large cities, the numbers are even
higher. For example, in Los Angeles
and Miami, the Journal reports almost
25 percent of adults lack profcient
English. Te study also fnds that cities
such as Indianapolis have witnessed a
near 100 percent increase in limited-
English speakers since 2000.
Americans Doubt
Colorblind Justice
WASHINGTON POST | September 23
T
oday fewer than 4-in-10 (38
percent) of Americans say that
blacks receive equal treatment under
the criminal justice system. Tats a
10 percentage point drop from one
year ago, when the public was evenly
SEPTEMBER 26, 2014
11
THE TRUMPET WEEKLY
The Desires of Your Heart
THE TRUMPET DAILY | September 23
STEPHEN FLURRY
God is a Father who wants to give His children everything!
divided on the question.
Tis fnding comes from the Public
Religion Research Institutes (prri)
latest American Values Survey. It fnds
growing skepticism among every
demographic group over the way the
criminal justice system treats minori-
ties. More than 6-in-10 young adults
now say that blacks dont receive equal
treatment over the law, a number that
has skyrocketed nearly 50 percent in
the past year. Whites, Republicans and
older Americans are less likely to see
racial disparities in the justice system,
but they are still signifcantly more
likely to say the system treats minorities
unequally than they were a year ago.
Americans are increasingly doubt-
ful that the criminal justice system is
colorblind, said Daniel Cox, prris
Research Director.
The Ponzi Economy
John P. Hussman, HUSSMAN
FUNDS | September 22
I
n the decade and a half since the
late-1990s, the U.S. economy has
undergone a fundamental shif. Te
signs of this shif can be observed
at the foundation of our standard
of living, as both accumulation of
productive capital and participation
in the labor force have buckled. What
obscures this fundamental deteriora-
tion is that activity at the surface still
appears quite stable. Its important to
understand why this is so.
Te standard of living of a country is
measured by the amount of output that
individuals are able to consume as a
result of their work. Te productivity of
a country is measured by the amount
that individuals are able to produce as a
result of their work. Over time, growth
in the standard of living is chained to
and limited by growth in productiv-
ity. Productivity, in turn, rests on two
factors: a productive capital base, and
an active pool of productive domestic
labor. Te accumulation of productive
factors is what drives long-term growth.
When the most persistent, most ag-
gressive, and most sizeable actions of
policymakers are those that discour-
age saving, promote debt-fnanced
consumption, and encourage the
diversion of scarce savings to yield-
seeking fnancial speculation rather
than productive investment, the back-
bone that supports a rising standard of
living is broken.
With respect to the U.S. capital
base, real gross domestic investment
has crawled at an annual growth
rate of just 1.4 percent since 1999,
compared to 4.9 percent real annual
growth in the preceding half-century.
During that same 15-year period, the
U.S. labor force participation rate has
collapsed from a record high to the
lowest level since the 1970s, wages
and salaries have plunged to a record
low share of gdp, and real median
household income has contracted by a
cumulative 9 percent.
But there are wrinkles in this story,
which make present conditions feel
better than this deterioration would
suggest. A country can insulate itself
from its own deteriorating productivity,
for a time, if continued consumption is
fnanced by the accumulation of debt
(and its partner, the printing of money).
Te U.S. has gone from the largest
creditor nation in the world to its larg-
est debtor by shifing from accumula-
tion to dissaving.
Alongside the deterioration in the
U.S. capital base and labor market
has been an increasing and perpetual
reliance on various forms of stimulus
through government defcit spending
and monetary intervention. Whats es-
sential to understand is that these forms
of stimulus are not just additional
symptoms of this economic shif. Tey
have become the causes and the guard-
ians of it. Suppressed interest rates have
encouraged a continuous diversion of
scarce savings toward what is efectively
debt-fnanced gambling. Meanwhile,
cheaply fnanced defcit spending
anesthetizes the consequences of dete-
riorating productive factors, allowing
the U.S., for a time, to feast on the geese
that could lay its golden eggs.
Te central point is this. Te U.S.
economy has shifed course from one
of productive capital accumulation to
a reliance on continuous expansion of
debt in excess of the economic ability to
repay it. Call this the Ponzi Economy.
If you wonder why the economy
feels fne despite the persistent thin-
ning of the U.S. capital base and the
hollowing out of its middle class, its
because we are covering the shortfall
at every turn with the endless issuance
of cheap debt that needs to be rolled
forward forever.
SEPTEMBER 26, 2014
12
THE TRUMPET WEEKLY
Te question of Germanys modern
identity and purpose, and its place
in Europe and the world, came about
because of World War ii. Tasked with
rebuilding their nation, the leaders
of West Germany frst had to defne
the character and nature of the new
German nation. Naturally, the su-
preme ambitionespecially for America and the nations of
Western Europe that were infuential in defning postwar
Germanywas to prevent Germany from causing future
regional or world wars. As a result of this defning goal,
postwar Germany was designed to prohibit militarism and
limit its ability to participate in, let alone assertively lead,
foreign conficts.
Te problem Germany faces today is that it is caught be-
tween two worlds. Te frst is the 20th century, post-World
War ii world. Here, Germany is an economically strong
but non-military state, and a country among equals in the
European Union. On the international scene, Germany is
stable and strong, but placid and content playing backup.
Like Robin is to Batman, 20th-century Germany is a side-
kick to America, the leader and defender of the free world,
and the nation responsible for carrying the bulk of the
burden. Tis is the world most Germans live in.
Te other world is the 21st-century world, or what
might accurately be called reality. Here, Batman is in rapid
decline, the forces of evil are rising, and Germany and Eu-
ropes national interests are in jeopardy. Tis world is dan-
gerous, unstable and increasingly unpredictable. Germany,
already a bona fde economic powerhouse, is constantly
being asked to contribute more, to be more assertive and
aggressive politically and fnancially, but also militarily.
Tis is the world that most of Germanys leaders dwell in.
Te challenge German Chancellor Angela Merkel and
Co. face is obvious: Tey must lead the German public into
the 21st-century world.
Although the postwar remorse diminishes with each
new generation of Germans, an enormous segment of the
German public still carries signifcant postwar guilt, and a
resulting aversion to German assertiveness and militancy.
Tis is important to recognize. In many respects, modern
Germany was built to avoid militarism and war. Take
Germanys constitution. It still is flled with all sorts of laws
and stipulations crafed to limit the size, capability and
operation of Germanys military. Te same goes for Ger-
manys postwar education system and media. Tese two
institutions were infused with strong pacifst tendencies to
suppress nationalist feelings and emotions.
Today Chancellor Merkel and Germanys leaders fnd
themselves in an increasingly tough position. On one
side, major crises are destabilizing the world and threat-
ening Germanys and Europes interests. Tese crises
are compounded by the fact that Americas presence is
shrinking, creating a leadership vacuum that many want
Germany to fll. On the other side, a signifcant chunk of
the German public lives in the 20th-century world. Tere,
deep reluctance of German involvement in foreign crises
remains, especially in a military capacity.
Tese are the increasingly dangerous waters that Ger-
manys leaders must navigate.
Whether its Ukraine, the Islamic State or Europes
political and fnancial crises, the moment is fast approach-
ing when Germany will be required to fnally act. Te
challenge Germanys leaders face today is explaining this to
their people (those who elect them) and showing them that
Germany no longer has the option of doing little or noth-
ing. Germanys leaders must somehow rewire the psyche
of the German people and help them see that in order for
Germany to survivefor the economy to remain stable, for
Germany and Europe to remain safe, for energy supplies to
remain secureit must get involved in meaningful ways
politically, fnancially and even militarily.
For Germanys leaders, this is a tough and risky task.
But events increasingly vindicate their message. Consider
the dramatic change that would take place if the threats
suddenly become more personal. What if a radical Islamist
terrorist exploded a bomb in Berlin or Munich? What if
Putin turns of the gas this winter and Germans energy
bills spike? What if Europes fnancial crisis grows worse
(which many expect to happen) and begins to really afect
the average German? What if Germanys large Muslim
population becomes angry and violent? Any one of these
things would undoubtedly help many Germans shake their
pacifst tendencies and get behind stronger, more aggres-
sive policies.
Te only way Germans can go on living in the 20th-cen-
tury world is if the regional and global threats against them
signifcantly diminish and the world returns to the way it
was. Tere is no sign of this happening any time soon. If
anything, Germanys domestic and global environment
will continue to change, and in ways that will impair and
hurt Germany unless it acts. Te danger and instability of
the 21st-century world will only intensify, and so will the
pressure on Germany to be more aggressive and assertive.
Germany is experiencing an identity crisis. Te Ger-
mans are being forced to realize that meekness and passiv-
ity are ill-advised and dangerous in a world that is increas-
ingly unstable, violent and falling into anarchy. Many of
Germanys leaders already recognize this reality and want
to respond. For now, however, their ability to forge Germa-
ny into an assertive, aggressive and dominant world power
is being limited by the reticence and caution of the German
public. But this is changing.
Moreover, as the crises intensify and begin to impact the
Germans more personally, their attitudes will change more
rapidly and dramatically.
We need to keep an eye on Germany as it comes through
this identity crisis. It is producing a new German nation:
a nation far more active and aggressive than what we are
accustomed to seeing; a nation that is an aggressive politi-
cal and military powerhouse; a German nation the world
hasnt seen since World War iia German nation that
historically has been a threat to regional and world peace.
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BRAD MACDONALD