Exchange Rate

EXCHANGE RATE
Exchange rate between two currencies is that rate at which one currency will be exchanged with
another currency. It is also known as a foreign-exchange rate, forex rate. It is regarded as the value of
one country's currency in terms of another currency. A currency tends to become more valuable
whenever demand for it is greater than the available supply
Exchange rates play a vital role in a country's level of trade, which is critical to almost every free market
economy in the world. Therefore, exchange rates are among the most monitored, analyzed and
governmentally manipulated economic measures. Exchange rate matters on a smaller scale as well: it
impacts the real return of an investor's portfolio, profitability of firms, growth of specific sectors
amongst various other determinants of the economy.
The table below shows the effects of an appreciation or depreciation of Indian Rupee and its effects on
Producers, Consumers etc.
(http://www.ijcsms.com/journals/Volume%2013,%20Issue%2006,%20August%202013_Anshu%20Gre
wal%20Paper-%20IMPACT%20OF%20RUPEE.pdf)
(http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=INR&view=2Y)
The graph above shows the fall in Rupee value over the period of the last 2 years. The persistent decline
in rupee is a cause of concern. Depreciation leads to imports becoming costlier which is a worry for India
as it meets most of its oil demand via imports. Apart from oil, prices of other imported commodities like
metals, gold etc will also rise pushing overall inflation higher. Even if prices of global oil and commodities
decline, the Indian consumers might not benefit as depreciation will negate the impact. The
depreciating rupee will add further pressure on the overall domestic inflation and since India is
structurally an import intensive country, as reflected in the high and persistent current account deficits
month after month, the domestic costs will rise on account of rupee depreciation. Exchange rate risk
also drives away foreign investors which in turn depreciates the local currency. Indian Rupee is currently
caught in this vicious cycle; it will have to find a stable level to regain investors confidence. The
depreciating rupee has serious effects on the external debt figures of the nation.
IMPACTS OF RUPEE DEPRECIATION:

Increase in Import Bill:
A depreciation of the domestic currency results in higher import costs for the country. Failure of a
similar rise being experienced in the prices of exportable commodities is going to result in a widening of
current account deficit (CAD) of the country.
Higher Inflation
A weak rupee will increase the burden of Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) and this will surely be passed
on to the consumers as the companies are allowed to do so following deregulation of petrol and partial
deregulation of diesel. If the OMCs increase fuel prices, there will be a substantial increase in overall
cost of transportation which will stoke up inflation.
Direct Impact on Consumers
Travel expenses rise as crude oil gets costlier. Foreign Travel and Overseas Education becomes costlier:
Students who are studying abroad will bear the brunt most owing to depreciating rupee. Expenses
incurred towards the university/college fee as well as that of living will shoot up, thereby spelling a huge
burden on the students. Inflation leading to price rise in essential goods.
RBIs monetary policy:
If the depreciation in rupee continues, it will further increase inflation. In such a situation RBI will have
very less room to cut policy rates. No cut in policy rate will add to the borrowers woes who are eagerly
waiting to get rid of the high loan regime. If RBI cuts rates further, the interest rate arbitrage (between
Indian government bonds and US Treasury yields) becomes less attractive, thus compromising the
possibility of further capital flows.
Current Account Deficit
o
Exporters refrain from repatriating export proceeds because they knew that the dollar would
earn more rupees if they wait a little longer
o
Those holding stashed funds abroad continue to hold them in perpetuity. They watch the
situation in silent appreciation, as they witness the rupee sinking to new depths effortlessly
o
Repatriable yield in dollar terms of foreign investors (foreign direct investments as well as
portfolio investments) diminishes, thereby dampening the investment climate in India
o
Foreign currency non-resident (FCNR) deposits become less attractive for banks since the swap
cost of funds soars due to a higher forward premium of the dollar.
o
NRIs tend to avoid non-resident external (NRE) repatriable rupee deposits since repatriable yield
in dollar terms diminishes
Capital Account deficit Lower FII Investments and Lower FDI
The rupees weakness may make foreign investors think twice before investing. Foreign capital inflows
are typically at risk when the local currency weakens. Portfolio flows into both debt and equity will
taper, with investors subscribing to the view that the local currency could depreciate further. This
shoots up the Capital Account Deficits.
Higher burden of Debt for Companies and Government:
The interest burden would increase on foreign currency denominated debt. For companies that have
availed of foreign currency loans for implementation of projects, the rupee depreciation will stretch
their balance sheets, as the amount of debt will increase in rupee terms. As these loans mature, the cash
flows will also be impacted. According to government statistics, out of Indias $376 billion outstanding
external debt, about 23% or $85.3 billion comprises external commercial borrowings, or ECBs. Similar
behavior can be observed in case of Government for repaying and servicing foreign debt.
Slowdown of growth and Unemployment
Falling rupee is a recipe for slowdown in economic growth. If the fall of rupee continues, the foreign
investment will dry in India thereby creating a gap between investment required for growth and the
actual investment made. Although this does not impact immediately, over the period, unemployment
rises in the economy as a result of fall in growth rate of AD as well as FII's.
Volatile domestic equity market:

Our equity market has been volatile for some time now. Equity is nothing but the investments in Indian
companies made by Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs). Some examples of Private equities investing in
India are Blackstone, IFC, Berkshire Hathaway etc. So, the FIIs are in a dilemma whether to invest in
India or not because of the lack of overall confidence in the Indian economy. Even though they have
brought in record inflows of dollar to the country this year, chances are they may be thinking of taking
their money out of the equity market, which might again results in less inflow of dollars in India.
Therefore, decrease in supply and increase in demand of dollars results in the weakening of the rupee
against the dollar.
Exporters
Importers will strongly feel the pinch of falling rupee as they will be forced to pay more rupees on
importing products. Conversely, a feeble rupee will bring delight to the exporters as goods exported
abroad will fetch dollars which in return will translate into more rupees. Also, a weak rupee will make
Indian produce more competitive in global markets which will be fruitful for India's exports.
Overseas Indians
Money saved is money earned. Depreciation of rupee is certainly a good news for the overseas Indians.
Those working abroad can gain more on remitting money to their homeland.
Other Positive Impacts:

Mutual fund investors who put money into those Indian funds, which in turn invest in US equity
schemes, stand to gain as much as 37% returns from the weak rupee. Three such feeder funds
available in India are FT India Feeder Franklin India Opportunities Fund, ICICI Prudential Blue-Chip Equity
Fund and DSP Black Rock US Flexible Equity Fund. Export industries like Software and Handicraft
received windfall gains as their major market is abroad. People living in India with kin abroad stand to
gain as remittances from abroad reap higher value with the rupees free-fall.0%.
IMPACTS ON FEW SECTORS
Real Estate
The rupee depreciation provides a psychological boost to both NRIs and developers who like to invest in
India. This is because they find it cheaper to invest in real estate in India as they will have more money
to invest in the local markets as inquiries go up and developers concentrate their marketing efforts to
attract more NRIs.
A typical purchase transaction for an NRI buyer will take a period of up to 3 months. During this period,
the rupee may strengthen and the notional advantages that could accrue due to the rupees
depreciation could be lost. This could get further compounded, if the purchase is not outright and the
NRI buyer needs to either pay in installments or he is booking an under construction property as again
there is no guarantee that he will continue to enjoy the benefits of a depreciated rupee during the
payment lifecycle.
In the short term, the depreciation of the rupee may mainly benefit those buyers who are already in the
process of finalizing an existing transaction where they have still not converted their foreign exchange in
to rupees to pay for their purchase. However, if the rupee maintains its current levels, developers could
see more interest from NRI buyers as long as the capital value levels are also maintained and do not see
a big hike during the period. At current rupee levels and sluggish market conditions in many markets
that are expected to remain for the next few months, NRIs could possibly benefit substantially from
some attractive options available in the markets.
IT Industry
It will be positive for the IT industry in the short-term, as the foreign investments in the industry will
increase and making them more cost-competitive. In the long run depreciation in currency fuels
inflation, affects market sentiments and it will affect signing of new contracts by domestic IT firms
Companies face more problem when they bid for next project, they find it hard to predict what the
currency rate is going to be. At this time they will be confused whether shall I do it at Rs. 60, Rs. 65 or Rs.
70 to the US dollar. So, the problem is if I don't see stability, on what basis do I price?.
This has been a real problem as companies don't know where to hedge, and even customers don't know
where to hedge. If we see three months down the line, the decline in rupee will translate into some
gains in terms of top line of the companies. However, as most companies have a hedging policy the
positive impact will be slight.
Tourism
The fall of the Indian rupee in comparison to the US dollar has adversely affected the tourist outflow to
foreign countries, especially Europe, America and South Asian countries. With cheap air fare rates and
lucrative tour packages, there was a big surge in the number of tourists visiting abroad earlier. But now
with the rupee depreciating steeply against the dollar the scenarios have changed.
People have started to look for shorter trips and destinations within India. Various Indian destinations,
which are the favorites of foreigners like Kashmir, Ladakh, Darjeeling, Andamans, Kerala, Goa, and
Rajasthan, have reemerged as top draws for tourists. The rupee depreciation has its positive side too.
The inflow of foreign tourists increases as India will become a much cheaper destination for tourists
originating from the US and Europe. So rupee depreciation has both positive and negative impacts.
CONCLUSION
The rupees decline affects everyone in the economy because it feeds directly and indirectly into general
inflation, which is a continuing problem even as output growth decelerates, and therefore hits common
people hard. There are several ways in which the falling rupee immediately has an inflationary impact,
one of the most important of which is the price of energy. Since the misguided decontrol of oil prices, it
is not only the globally traded price of fuel but also the exchange rate that determines domestic oil
prices. Going by the way the economies in the euro zone and the US have been behaving, it would be
nave to expect that the export earnings would be contributing significantly to foreign exchange inflows
in the near future. The govt should concentrate On correcting the economic fundamentals and try to
win back confidence of Investors.
MLA CITATION
http://stockshastra.moneyworks4me.com/basics-of-investing/exchange-rate-fluctuation-rupeeappreciation-impact-on-stock-markets/
http://www.bemoneyaware.com/blog/indian-rupee-exchange-rate-fluctuations-impact/
http://www.wikinvest.com/stock/Tata_Motors_(TTM)/Fluctuations_Exchange_Rate_Between_Rupee_D
ollar_Material_Adverse
http://www.jstor.org/discover/10.2307/29793852?uid=3738256&uid=2&uid=4&sid=21104183539401
http://www.cpmr.org.in/opinion/vol1/issue1/Articles/3.pdf
http://www.assocham.org/arb/general/Exchange_Rate_Study.pdf
http://www.ijcsms.com/journals/Volume%2013,%20Issue%2006,%20August%202013_Anshu%20Grewa
l%20Paper-%20IMPACT%20OF%20RUPEE.pdf
http://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-88-470-0502-0_7

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EXCHANGE RATE

IMPACTS OF RUPEE DEPRECIATION:

Volatile domestic equity market:

Other Positive Impacts:

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