Wolf Agenda and

2016 Presidential Election

A Survey of 434 Registered
Voters in Pennsylvania

Prepared by: The Mercyhurst Center for Applied

Politics at Mercyhurst University
Joseph M. Morris, Director
Rolfe D. Peterson, Methodologist
Dylan Radtke, Project Manager

Summary of Findings
On the eve of Governor-elect Tom Wolfs inauguration, Pennsylvania voters are generally optimistic
about his ability to successfully lead the commonwealth, solve the problems facing the state, work
effectively with the states Republican-led legislature, and majorities express support for key
elements of his agenda.

A Mercyhurst Center for Applied Politics poll of 434 (MOE +/-4.75) registered voters in
Pennsylvania conducted between January 7 and January 16, 2015, finds solid majorities of voters are
confident in Wolfs ability to lead the state and solve the problems it faces. Solid majorities of voters
also say they have confidence in Wolfs ability to work effectively with Republicans in the state
legislature and nearly a majority express optimism that his performance as governor will exceed that
of his predecessor, Tom Corbett. Concerning Wolfs stated agenda, majorities of voters favor creating
a progressive income tax for Pennsylvania, increasing the minimum wage from $7.25 to $10.10/hour,
enacting an extraction tax on natural gas, and increasing funding for public schools. Majorities of
voters also express a desire for reform of the states pension system and favor privatizing state liquor
stores. On the question of which issue should be his top priority, voters identify education, the
economy/jobs, and taxes, among others.

Looking ahead to the 2016 presidential election, majorities of Pennsylvania voters say they have
strong or somewhat favorable opinions of two potential candidates for the Democratic Party, Hillary
Clinton and Joe Biden. Leading the field of potential Republican candidates is Jeb Bush, followed by
Chris Christie, Rick Santorum, and Paul Ryan. In contrast to potential contenders for the Democratic
Partys nomination for president, none of the Republicans included in this poll secure favorable
evaluations from a majority of Pennsylvania voters.

Governor-Elect Tom Wolf

General y speaking, how confident are you in Tom Wolf's ability to lead Pennsylvania? Would you say that you are very confident, somewhat confident, somewhat unconfident, or not at all confident?(N=434, MOE +/- 4.75)

7% 1%
Very Confident 9% Somewhat Confident 23%Somewhat Unconfident

14%
Not Confident At All DK

RF

46%

On the eve of Governor-elect Tom Wolfs

inauguration, a majority (69%) of Pennsylvania voters say they are very (23%) or somewhat
(46%) confident in his ability to lead the state, and only 24% say that they are somewhat
unconfident (14%) or not at all confident (9%) in his ability to do so. Similarly, a solid majority
(65%) expresses confidence in his ability to solve the problems facing the state, and only 28%
expressed some degree of a lack of confidence in his ability to do so. These generally optimistic
beliefs about Wolfs potential are echoed in voters perception of his ability to work with the
Republican-led legislature. A majority (52%) of voters say that they are very (6%) or somewhat
(46%) that Wolf will be able to work effectively with Republicans in the legislature, while 40% say
that they are somewhat (24%) or not at all (16%) confident that he will be able to do so. As to
whether he will outperform his predecessor, Tom Corbett, 50% of voters say he will and 11% say
that he will not. A sizeable minority (29%) says that Wolf and Corbetts performance as governor
will be about the same.

On January 20th Tom Wolf wil be sworn in as the new governor of Pennsylvania. In just a couple of words, what single issue do you believe should be his top priority? (N=349)
Welfare
Healt hcare
Infrastructure
Hydraulic Fracturing
Political Reform
Pension System
Budget
Taxes
Economy/Jobs
Education
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

Do you favor or oppose...(N=434, MOE +/-4.75

Privatizing Liquor Stores
Reforming Pension
Increase School Funding
Extraction Tax
Increasing M inimum Wage
Progressive IncomeTax
0%
Favor

20%

Oppose

40%
Depends

60%

80%

100%

DK/RF

In terms of Governor-elect Wolfs agenda,

voters in Pennsylvania appear to be generally supportive. Majorities of voters say they favor creating
a progressive income tax for the state (58% favor; 35% oppose), raising the states minimum wage
from $7.25 to $10.10/hour (66% favor; 29% oppose), enacting a five percent extraction tax on
natural gas (61% favor; 27% oppose), and increasing funding for public schools (74% favor; 22%
oppose). However, voters are less supportive of maintaining state control of liquor stores. When
asked whether they favored or opposed privatizing state liquor stores, a majority (52%) said they
favored such a move, while thirty-four percent said they opposed it. It is also clear that voters favor
reforming the pension system for public employees (58% favor; 20% oppose).

Finally, when asked to identify, in just a couple of words, which single issue should be Governorelect Wolfs top priority, education (25%), the economy and jobs (23%), and taxes (13%) topped the
list. These top-tier issues were followed by the budget (7%), pension system (6%), political reforms
(5%), hydraulic fracturing (3%), infrastructure (3%), healthcare (3%), welfare (2%), and a wide
range of other issues (9%).

2016 Presidential Election

Looking ahead to the 2016 presidential election, registered voters in Pennsylvania have favorable
opinions of potential candidates for the Democratic Party, and less favorable opinions of potential
candidates for the Republican Party. Of the potential Democratic contenders, Hillary Clinton is
perceived most favorably with 57% of voters saying they have a strongly (25%) or somewhat
(32%) favorable opinion of her. Joe Biden also receives a largely positive evaluation from voters,
with a majority (55%) saying they have either a strongly (16%) or somewhat (39%) favorable
opinion of him. Leading the Republican field of potential candidates is Jeb Bush with 42% of voters
saying they have either a strongly (8%) or somewhat (34%) favorable opinion of him. Following
close behind Bush are Rick Santorum and Chris Christie, each with 40% of voters saying they have a
strongly or somewhat favorable opinion of them. Other potential Republican candidates, including
Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, Paul Ryan, Scott Walker, Rick Perry, and Marco Rubio are perceived
substantially less favorable than Bush, Santorum and Christie.

Frequency Report
Interviews were completed with 434 registered voters in Pennsylvania. For a sample size of 434, there is a 95 percent
probability that our survey results are within plus or minus 4.75 points (the margin of error) of the actual population
distribution for any given question. For subsamples the margin of error is larger (depending on the size of the subsample). The
data were weighted on age and gender to correct for minor discrepancies between the sample and population. Question order
was randomized whenever possible. Due to rounding, column totals may not equal 100 percent. Bracketed or italicized text are
instructions to interviewers.

To begin, I'm going to read you some ideas people have proposed for improving life in Pennsylvania. Some people favor turning
these ideas into law, while others do not favor turning them into law. Please tell me whether you favor or oppose turning these
ideas into law.

[Randomized]

Q.1 Do you favor or oppose creating a progressive income tax for Pennsylvania, where the more income a person has, the more
they pay in state taxes?

Favor

58%

Oppose

35%

Depends (volunteered) 3%
Dk

4%

RF

1%

Q.2 Do you favor or oppose raising Pennsylvania's minimum wage from $7.25 per hour to $10.10 per hour?

Favor

66%

Oppose

29%

Depends (volunteered) 3%
DK

2%

RF

0%

Q.3 Do you favor or oppose creating a five percent extraction tax on natural gas from wells in Pennsylvania?

Favor

61%

Oppose

27%

Depends (volunteered) 3%
DK

9%

RF

1%

Q.4 Do you favor or oppose increasing funding for public schools?

Favor

74%

Oppose

22%

Depends (volunteered) 3%
DK

1%

RF

1%

Q.5 Do you favor or oppose reforming the pension system for public employees?

Favor

58%

Oppose

20%

Depends (volunteered) 5%
DK

15%

RF

2%

Q.6 Do you favor or oppose privatizing state liquor stores?

Favor

52%

Oppose

34%

Depends (volunteered) 5%
DK

9%

RF

0%

Q.7 On January 20th Tom Wolf will be sworn in as the new governor of Pennsylvania. In just a couple of words, what single
issue do you believe should be his top priority?

Q.8 Generally speaking, how confident are you in Tom Wolf's ability to lead Pennsylvania? Would you say that you are very
confident, somewhat confident, somewhat unconfident, or not at all confident?

Very confident

23%

Somewhat confident

46%

Somewhat unconfident 14%

Not at all Confident

9%

DK

7%

RF

1%

Q.9 Generally speaking, how confident are you in Tom Wolf's ability to solve the problems facing our state? Would you say that
you are very confident, somewhat confident, somewhat unconfident, or not at all confident?

Very confident

11%

Somewhat confident

54%

Somewhat unconfident 16%

Not at all confident

12%

DK

7%

RF

0%

Q.10 Generally speaking, how confident are you that the Democrat Tom Wolf will be able to work effectively with the
Republican-led state legislature? Would you say that you are very confident, somewhat confident, somewhat unconfident, or
Not at all confident?

Very confident

6%

Somewhat confident

46%

Somewhat unconfident 24%

Not at all Confident

16%

DK

8%

RF

0%

Q.11 Do you believe that Tom Wolf's performance in his duties as governor will be better, worse, or about the same as the
outgoing governor of Pennsylvania, Tom Corbett?

Better

50%

Worse

11%

About the same

29%

DK

8%

RF

0%

I'm going to read you a list of people who have been in the news recently. I would like you to tell me whether your opinion of
each person is strongly favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, strongly unfavorable.
If you don't recognize the name, simply let me know and we will move on.

[Randomized]

Q.12 Is your opinion of Jeb Bush strongly favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or strongly unfavorable?

Strongly Favorable

8%

Somewhat Favorable

34%

Somewhat Unfavorable 27%

Strongly Unfavorable

21%

Do not Recognize

7%

DK

4%

RF

0%

Q.13 Is your opinion of Hillary Clinton strongly favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or strongly
unfavorable?

Strongly favorable

25%

Somewhat favorable

32%

Somewhat unfavorable 16%

Strongly unfavorable

26%

Do not recognize

1%

DK

1%

RF

0%

Q.14 How about Scott Walker?

Strongly favorable

8%

Somewhat favorable

10%

Somewhat unfavorable 6%
Strongly unfavorable

10%

Do not recognize

50%

DK

15%

RF

1%

Q.15 How about Rick Perry?

Strongly favorable

5%

Somewhat favorable

19%

Somewhat unfavorable 17%

Strongly unfavorable

21%

Do not recognize

26%

DK

11%

RF

1%

Q.16 How about Joe Biden?

Strongly favorable

16%

Somewhat favorable

39%

Somewhat unfavorable 16%

Strongly unfavorable

26%

Do not recognize

2%

DK

2%

RF

0%

Q.17 How about Marco Rubio?

Strongly favorable

6%

Somewhat favorable

22%

Somewhat unfavorable 12%

Strongly unfavorable

15%

Do not recognize

32%

DK

12%

RF

0%

Q.18 How about Chris Christie?

Strongly favorable

7%

Somewhat favorable

33%

Somewhat unfavorable 25%

Strongly unfavorable

22%

Do not recognize

8%

DK

4%

RF

1%

Q.19 How about Paul Ryan?

Strongly favorable

8%

Somewhat favorable

26%

Somewhat unfavorable 15%

Strongly unfavorable

20%

Do not recognize

21%

DK

10%

RF

0%

Q.20 How about Rand Paul?

Strongly favorable

6%

Somewhat favorable

26%

Somewhat unfavorable 21%

Strongly unfavorable

15%

Do not recognize

21%

DK

11%

RF

0%

Q.21 How about Ted Cruz?

Strongly favorable

4%

Somewhat favorable

14%

Somewhat unfavorable 12%

Strongly unfavorable

23%

Do not recognize

33%

DK

14%

RF

0%

Q.22 How about Rick Santorum?

Strongly favorable

10%

Somewhat favorable

30%

Somewhat unfavorable 19%

Strongly unfavorable

24%

Do not recognize

11%

DK

6%

RF

0%

Q.23 The last few questions are used to make sure that our sample for this survey reflects the population as a whole. Again, your
answers will be kept completely confidential.

Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as a Republican, Democrat or Independent?

Republican

30%

Democrat

39%

Independent

27%

Other (volunteered)

2%

DK

1%

RF

0%

Q.24 Generally speaking, would you consider yourself to be a liberal, conservative, moderate, or have you not thought much
about this?

Conservative
Liberal

27%
23%

Moderate

31%

Not thought about

17%

DK

2%

RF

1%

Q.25 In what year were you born?

18-28

14%

29-32

13%

39-48

15%

49-68

40%

69 or older

18%

Q.28 What is the highest level of education you have completed?

Less than high school

1%

High school

22%

Some college/associate degree 26%

Four year degree

33%

Graduate degree

18%

DK

0%

RF

0%

Q.29 What is you marital status?

Single

28%

Married
Domestic Partnership

55%
0%

Divorced

8%

Widowed

9%

Other

0%

DK

0%

RF

0%

Q.30 If you add together the yearly incomes, before taxes, of all of the members of your household for the past year, would the
total be?

[read categories]

Less than $30,000

15%

$30,000-$50,000

20%

$50,000-$100,000

28%

$100,000-$150,000

11%

Greater than $150,000 10%

DK

7%

RF

8%

Q.31 What is your race or ethnicity?

White/Caucasian

86%

Non-White

11%

DK

1%

RF

2%

Q.32 Gender

[do not ask, just record]

Male

48%

Female

52%

DK

0%

RF

0%

Methodology
This report summarizes the results of a survey of registered voters in Pennsylvania, which was
conducted between Wednesday, January 7 and Friday, January 16, 2015. During the 8 day field
period interviewers called weekday evenings between the hours of 6:00 and 9:00 PM and between
11:00 AM and 6:00 PM on weekends. For each working phone number, interviewers made no fewer
than six attempts to contact individuals selected to participate in the study. Calls were manually
dialed and relied on a list of randomly selected registered voters Pennsylvania obtained from
Votermapping.com.

A total of 434 individuals were interviewed. For a sample size of 434, there is a 95 percent
probability that the results are within plus or minus 4.75 points (the margin of error) of the actual
population distribution for any given question. For subsamples, the margin of error is higher
(depending on the size of the subsample). Aside from sampling error, there are several factors that
prevent the results obtained through a probability sample from being a perfect representation of the
results that would be obtained if the entire population was interviewed. This non-sampling error may
be caused by of a variety of factors including, but not limited to, response rate and question order. In
this survey, a variety of techniques were employed to reduce common sources of non-sampling error.

Response Rate
Calculating a response rate for a particular study involves considering a number of variables (see
http://www.aapor.org/Response_Rates_An_Overview.htm); but, simply stated, it refers to the
percentage of individuals in a sample that, when contacted, elect to participate in a study by
responding an interviewers questions. In recent years, researchers have documented a sharp decline
in response rates. Today, a typical study that relies on telephone interviews can expect a response rate
of between 20 and 30%. Although it is unclear if, or to what extent, response rate is a source of nonsampling error, most polls strive to maximize response rate by making multiple attempts to contact
individuals and taking steps to secure their cooperation once they have been reached. In this way, our
study of registered voters in Pennsylvania is no different than most polls: No fewer than six attempts
were made to contact hard-to-reach individuals. These attempts occurred during weekday evenings
and on Saturday afternoons.
Questions
This report contains the questions as worded on the questionnaire and in the order in which they
were asked. Some of the questions include bracketed information, which is, in every case, an
instruction to the programmer or interviewer. Whenever possible, question order was randomized to

ensure that respondents did not receive a set order of response options, which allowed response set
bias to be minimized. For structured (close-ended) questions, interviewers were trained to probe for
clarity when respondents answers were not identical to the predefined response options. For
unstructured (open-ended) questions, interviewers were trained to record verbatim responses
whenever possible. In cases where a respondent asked that a question or response option be
repeated, interviewers were careful to re-read the entire question or all response options.
Data
Data collected during this study was prepared for analysis by director and associate director of
Mercyhurst Center for Applied Politics. Data preparation included, but was not limited to, removing
partial interviews (respondent-terminated interviews) from the dataset. To maximize the accuracy of
our results and correct for discrepancies between our sample and the population, the data were
weighted on age and race. Simply stated, weighting is when data collected from survey respondents
are adjusted to represent the population from which the sample was drawn.

Mercyhurst Center
for Applied Politics
The Mercyhurst Center for Applied Politics (MCAP) began operations in July 2010. Inspired by the
mission of Mercyhurst University and guided by the universitys core values, the center promotes
reasoned discourse about problems facing communities, states and nations. It accomplishes this
objective by providing elected officials, government agencies, news organizations, and nonprofits
with accurate and unbiased assessments of public opinion; and offering a nonpartisan forum for
public debates and roundtable discussions that address pressing public problems.
The centerpiece of MCAP is the state of the art computer-assisted telephone interviewing (CATI)
facility. The facility, which is located in the Center for Academic Engagement, is comprised of thirtyone interviewer stations and staffed by well-trained research associates. The specialized computer
software used to conduct telephone interviews generates random telephone numbers in a predefined
geographic area or dials from a list, and allows research associates to accurately complete even the
most complex interviews.
The center also has the ability to design and administer online surveys. This method of interviewing
is ideal for organizations that have relatively up-to-date email addresses for their members. The
software used by MCAP allows a researcher to administer a survey - whether short and simple or
long and complex to an unlimited number of email addresses. In addition, a researcher has the
ability to monitor response rates and send out reminders, thereby ensuring that the study produces
high quality results.

As the Northwestern Pennsylvanias only CATI facility whose primary purpose is to regularly and
accurately gauge public opinion, the MCAP is an invaluable resource for community leaders. Each
year the center conducts polls on issues of local, state and national interest. The results of these

studies are made available to the public via the universitys webpage (polisci.mercyhurst.edu/mcap).
In addition to its annual polls, the center offers its services to private parties, nonprofits, news
organizations, and government agencies for minimal cost.
Please direct questions about the center to Dr. Joseph M. Morris, Director, Mercyhurst Center for
Applied Politics, Mercyhurst University, 501 E. 38th Street, Erie, PA, 16546, (814) 824-2154,
jmorris@mercyhurst.edu.
The Mercyhurst Center for Applied Politics was established with a generous gift from Erie
Insurance.