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    2012 Reuters Ipsos Daily Election Tracking 10.07.12

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    Tom Kludt
    This document summarizes the results of an Ipsos poll conducted online between October 3-7, 2012 of 1,745 registered voters. The poll found that 47% of likely voters would vote for Obama/Biden while 45% would vote for Romney/Ryan if the election was held at that time. 54% of respondents felt that Romney did a better job in the first presidential debate on October 3rd compared to 24% for Obama. The document also provides details on voter preferences, likelihood of voting early, and viewership of the first debate.

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    2012 Reuters Ipsos Daily Election Tracking 10.07.12

    Uploaded by

    Tom Kludt
    220 views4 pages
    This document summarizes the results of an Ipsos poll conducted online between October 3-7, 2012 of 1,745 registered voters. The poll found that 47% of likely voters would vote for Obama/Biden while 45% would vote for Romney/Ryan if the election was held at that time. 54% of respondents felt that Romney did a better job in the first presidential debate on October 3rd compared to 24% for Obama. The document also provides details on voter preferences, likelihood of voting early, and viewership of the first debate.

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    This document summarizes the results of an Ipsos poll conducted online between October 3-7, 2012 of 1,745 registered voters. The poll found that 47% of likely voters would vote for Obama/Biden while 45% would vote for Romney/Ryan if the election was held at that time. 54% of respondents felt that Romney did a better job in the first presidential debate on October 3rd compared to 24% for Obama. The document also provides details on voter preferences, likelihood of voting early, and viewership of the first debate.

    Copyright:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    220 views4 pages

    2012 Reuters Ipsos Daily Election Tracking 10.07.12

    Uploaded by

    Tom Kludt
    This document summarizes the results of an Ipsos poll conducted online between October 3-7, 2012 of 1,745 registered voters. The poll found that 47% of likely voters would vote for Obama/Biden while 45% would vote for Romney/Ryan if the election was held at that time. 54% of respondents felt that Romney did a better job in the first presidential debate on October 3rd compared to 24% for Obama. The document also provides details on voter preferences, likelihood of voting early, and viewership of the first debate.

    Copyright:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    of 4

    Interview dates: Oct 3-7, 2012

    Base: 1,745 Registered voters (RV)


    Base for Voting Intention: 1,490 Likely Voters (LV)

    Ipsos Poll conducted for Reuters
    DAILY ELECTION TRACKING 10.07.12
    These are findings from an Ipsos poll conducted for Thomson Reuters from Oct. 3-7, 2012. For the survey, a sample of 1,745
    American registered voters and 1,490 Likely Voters (all age 18 and over) was interviewed online. The precision of the
    Reuters/Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus
    2.7 percentage points for Registered Voters and 2.9 for Likely Voters. For more information about credibility intervals, please see
    the appendix.
    The data were weighted to the U.S. current population data by gender, age, education, and ethnicity. Statistical margins of error
    are not applicable to online polls. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited
    to coverage error and measurement error. Figures marked by an asterisk (*) indicate a percentage value of greater than zero
    but less than one half of a per cent. Where figures do not sum to 100, this is due to the effects of rounding.

    DAILY ELECTION TRACKER

    Q1. If the 2012 Presidential Election were being held today and the candidates were [ROTATE] Barack Obama for president and
    Joe Biden for vice president, the Democrats, and Mitt Romney for president and Paul Ryan for vice president, the Republicans
    [END ROTATE], for whom would you vote?

    All LIKELY
    Voters (LV)
    All Registered
    Voters (RV)
    Democrats
    (RV)
    Republicans
    (RV)
    Independents
    (RV)
    Barack Obama for president and Joe Biden
    for vice president, the Democrats
    47% 46% 86% 8% 35%
    Mitt Romney for president and Paul Ryan
    for vice president, the Republicans
    45% 41% 7% 87% 30%
    Wouldnt vote *% 2% 1% 1% 3%
    None / Other 3% 4% 2% 2% 14%
    Dont know / Refused 5% 6% 4% 3% 17%


    [ASK IF OBAMA OR ROMNEY SELECTED IN Q1]
    Q2. Have you definitely decided to vote for [INSERT RESPONSE FROM Q1], or is there a chance you might change your mind
    before you vote? (n=1,538)

    All Registered
    Voters (RV)
    Democrats
    (RV)
    Republicans
    (RV)
    Independents
    (RV)
    Definitely will vote for candidate 84% 88% 84% 71%
    Could change my mind 16% 12% 16% 29%


    Q3. Have you already voted in the upcoming November general election by going to an early voting location, or by mailing in an
    early voting or absentee ballot, or not?

    All Registered
    Voters (RV)
    Democrats
    (RV)
    Republicans
    (RV)
    Independents
    (RV)
    Yes 8% 9% 7% 6%
    No 92% 91% 93% 94%


    1146 19
    th
    St., NW, Suite 200
    Washington, DC 20036
    (202) 463-7300



    [IF No at Q3, ASK Q4]
    Q4. And do you plan to vote at an early voting location or by mailing in an early voting or absentee ballot? (n=1,239)

    All Registered
    Voters (RV)
    Democrats
    (RV)
    Republicans
    (RV)
    Independents
    (RV)
    Yes I plan to vote at an early voting location 12% 11% 13% 14%
    Yes I plan to mail in an early voting ballot 9% 11% 9% 6%
    Yes I plan to mail in an absentee ballot 9% 8% 8% 16%
    No I do not plan to vote early 70% 70% 70% 63%


    FIRST PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE

    Questions 5-9 were added to the survey at 11pm EST the night of the debate (October 3
    rd
    ). The base size for these questions is
    1,624 American registered voters, with a credibility interval of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points

    Q5. Have you seen, heard or read anything about the Presidential debate on Wednesday, October 3rd?

    All Registered
    Voters (RV)
    Democrats
    (RV)
    Republicans
    (RV)
    Independents
    (RV)
    A great deal 41% 43% 44% 38%
    A fair amount 28% 28% 30% 26%
    A little bit 22% 20% 20% 25%
    Not heard anything at all 9% 8% 6% 11%
    Seen, heard or read something 91% 92% 94% 89%


    Q6. Regardless of which candidate you happen to support, who do you think did the better job in the debate?

    All Registered
    Voters (RV)
    Democrats
    (RV)
    Republicans
    (RV)
    Independents
    (RV)
    Barack Obama, Democrat 24% 44% 5% 15%
    Mitt Romney, Republican 54% 33% 84% 49%
    Dont know 22% 24% 11% 37%


    Q7. And has the debate changed your view of each candidate?


    All Registered
    Voters (RV)
    Democrats
    (RV)
    Republicans
    (RV)
    Independents
    (RV)
    Barack Obama,
    Democrat
    Yes more positive towards candidate 15% 27% 4% 8%
    Yes more negative towards candidate 20% 5% 41% 14%
    No has not changed my view 55% 61% 50% 59%
    Dont know 10% 7% 5% 19%
    Mitt Romney,
    Republican
    Yes more positive towards candidate 28% 8% 57% 20%
    Yes more negative towards candidate 16% 31% 3% 11%
    No has not changed my view 44% 51% 35% 52%
    Dont know 11% 11% 5% 18%




    Q8. After watching this debate, are you now more or less likely to watch the next Presidential debate, or has it made no
    difference?

    All Registered
    Voters (RV)
    Democrats
    (RV)
    Republicans
    (RV)
    Independents
    (RV)
    More likely 46% 47% 53% 30%
    Less likely 4% 5% 3% 5%
    No difference 35% 34% 32% 45%
    Didnt watch first debate 15% 14% 12% 20%

    Q9. If you had to choose one, which of the following activities would you do?

    All Registered
    Voters (RV)
    Democrats
    (RV)
    Republicans
    (RV)
    Independents
    (RV)
    Watch the Presidential debate 59% 67% 62% 40%
    Have a tooth pulled 4% 3% 3% 5%
    Watch paint dry 9% 7% 9% 13%
    Do your taxes 8% 9% 7% 10%
    Wait in line at security at the airport 7% 6% 6% 11%
    Jury duty 12% 8% 14% 22%






    PARTY ID


    All Registered
    Voters (RV)
    Strong Democrat 17%
    Moderate Democrat 19%
    Lean Democrat 7%
    Lean Republican 7%
    Moderate Republican 18%
    Strong Republican 13%
    Independent 13%
    None of these 3%
    DK 2%




    How to Calculate Bayesian Credibility Intervals

    The calculation of credibility intervals assumes that Y has a binomial distribution conditioned on the parameter \, i.e.,
    Y|~Bin(n,), where n is the sie of our sample. In this seng, Y counts the number of yes, or 1, observed in the sample, so
    that the sample mean (y ) is a natural estimate of the true population proportion . This model is often called the likelihood
    function, and it is a standard concept in both the Bayesian and the Classical framework. The Bayesian
    1
    statistics combines both
    the prior distribution and the likelihood function to create a posterior distribution. The posterior distribution represents our
    opinion about which are the plausible values for adjusted after observing the sample data. In reality, the posterior
    distribution is ones knowledge base updated using the latest survey information. For the prior and likelihood functions
    specified here, the posterior distribution is also a beta distribution ((/y)~(y+a,n-y+b)), but with updated hyper-parameters.

    Our credibility interval for is based on this posterior distribution. As mentioned above, these intervals represent our belief
    about which are the most plausible values for given our updated knowledge base. There are different ways to calculate these
    intervals based on n(0). Since we want only one measure of precision for all variables in the survey, analogous to what is
    done within the Classical framework, we will compute the largest possible credibility interval for any observed sample. The
    worst case occurs when we assume that a=1 and b=1 and = n / . Using a simple approximation of the posterior by the
    normal distribution, the 95% credibility interval is given by, approximately:

    +

    V
    n

    ..

    For this poll, the Bayesian Credibility Interval was adjusted using standard weighting design effect 1+L=1.3 to account for
    complex weighting
    2


    Examples of credibility intervals for different base sies are below.

    Sample size Credibility intervals
    2,000 2.5
    1,500 2.9
    1,000 3.5
    750 4.1
    500 5.0
    350 6.0
    200 7.9
    100 11.2




    1
    Bayesian Data Analysis, Second Edition, Andrew Gelman, John B. Carlin, Hal S. Stern, Donald B. Rubin, Chapman & Hall/CRC |
    ISBN: 158488388X | 2003

    2
    Kish, L. (1992). Weighting for unequal Pi . Journal of Official, Statistics, 8, 2, 183200.

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