Scribd Logo
Upload

Welcome to Scribd!

  • 49 views

    Orbital Variations

    Uploaded by

    bixgorin
    1. Hays et al analyzed three climate indices from ocean sediment cores spanning 450,000 years and found their variance was concentrated at orbital periods of around 23,000, 42,000, and 100,000 years, matching periods in Earth's orbit. 2. The 42,000-year component matches variations in the tilt of the Earth's axis. 3. The 23,000-year component matches precession periods and remains in constant phase with precession.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd

    Orbital Variations

    Uploaded by

    bixgorin
    49 views46 pages
    1. Hays et al analyzed three climate indices from ocean sediment cores spanning 450,000 years and found their variance was concentrated at orbital periods of around 23,000, 42,000, and 100,000 years, matching periods in Earth's orbit. 2. The 42,000-year component matches variations in the tilt of the Earth's axis. 3. The 23,000-year component matches precession periods and remains in constant phase with precession.

    Original Description:

    A seminal paper in climate studies

    Copyright

    © © All Rights Reserved

    Available Formats

    PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd

    Did you find this document useful?

    Is this content inappropriate?

    1. Hays et al analyzed three climate indices from ocean sediment cores spanning 450,000 years and found their variance was concentrated at orbital periods of around 23,000, 42,000, and 100,000 years, matching periods in Earth's orbit. 2. The 42,000-year component matches variations in the tilt of the Earth's axis. 3. The 23,000-year component matches precession periods and remains in constant phase with precession.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    49 views46 pages

    Orbital Variations

    Uploaded by

    bixgorin
    1. Hays et al analyzed three climate indices from ocean sediment cores spanning 450,000 years and found their variance was concentrated at orbital periods of around 23,000, 42,000, and 100,000 years, matching periods in Earth's orbit. 2. The 42,000-year component matches variations in the tilt of the Earth's axis. 3. The 23,000-year component matches precession periods and remains in constant phase with precession.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    You are on page 1of 46

    Variations in the Earth's Orbit:

    Pacemaker of the Ice Ages


    For 500,000 years, major climatic changes have followed
    variations in obliquity and precession.
    J. D. Hays, John Imbrie, N. J. Shackleton

    Science, 194, 1976

    John Noble
    Earth 206
    April 2009

    J. D. Hays
    Professor of Earth and environmental sciences at Columbia University.
    Background:
    BA from Harvard University
    MS from Ohio State University
    PhD from Columbia University
    Current research:
    history of climate change over the past three million years and the
    evolutionary history recorded by microfossils.
    Papers:
    "Faunal Extinction and Reversals of the Earth's Magnetic Field," in
    the Geological Society of America Bulletin (1971);
    "Lithospheric Plate Motion, Sea Level Changes and Climatic and
    Ecological Consequences," in Nature (1973).
    2

    John Imbrie
    Professor Emeritus at Brown; has been on the faculty of the Geological
    Sciences Department at Brown University since 1977, where he has
    held the Henry L. Doherty chair of Oceanography.
    Background:
    Undergrad: Coe College (Cedar Rapids, Iowa) and Princeton
    University.
    M.S. and Ph.D. from Yale University in 1950 & 1951., Geology and
    Geophysics
    Awards
    William H. Twenhofel Medal by the Society for Sedimentary Geology
    in 1991.
    Wilbur Cross medal
    Advancement of Basic and Applied Science

    Prof. Sir. Nicholas J. Shackleton


    Background:
    Educated at Cranbrook School, Kent, Shackleton studied natural
    sciences at Clare College, University of Cambridge, graduating with
    the BA degree in 1961
    1964 a MA degree.
    1967 he was awarded at the same university a PhD degree, with his
    thesis entitled 'The Measurement of Paleotemperatures in the
    Quaternary Era'.
    Awards:
    Doctor of Science (ScD), University of Cambridge, 1984
    Fellow of the Royal Society (FRS), 1985
    Shepard Medal (SEPM) for excellence in marine geology 1985
    Carus Medal, Deutsche Akademie fr Naturforscher 'Leopoldina'
    1985
    Lyell Medal, Geological Society of London 1987
    Founding member, Academia Europaea 1988
    Fellow, American Geophysical Union 1990
    4

    Early climate research


    Croll (1875) compared
    astronomical calculations of
    orbital history with the
    geologic record of climate,
    hypothesizing that evidence
    of multiple glaciations
    confirm the astronomical
    theory of the ice ages.

    John Evelyn
    John Evelyn, 1661
    Fumifugium, or,
    The inconveniencie of the
    aer and smoak of London
    dissipated together with
    some remedies humbly
    proposed by J.E. esq. to
    His Sacred Majestie, and
    to the Parliament now
    assembled

    Scientific questions and goals

    Better understand the interplay of causes responsible for


    Pleistocene ice sheet fluctuations.

    Goal:

    Create test to geologically determine frequencies


    Methods and tests:
    1. Geologic time series: stratigraphic record of 18O, Ts, summer
    sea-surface temperature (SST) Cycladophora davisiana
    2. Frequency domain tests (spectral analysis)
    Time domain tests for phase relationships

    Possible explanations
    Theories invoking variations of factors
    1. External to climate system
    Solar luminosity
    interstellar dust concentration
    earth's orbital geometry
    Atmospheric volcanic dust content
    Earths magnetic field
    2. Internal to climate system (response times sufficiently long to
    yield 105-yr fluctuations)
    growth and decay of ice sheets

    Arctic and Antarctic ice sheets

    CO2 distribution between atmosphere and ocean


    deep circulation of the ocean

    Orbital hypothesis

    Formulated to predict frequencies of major Pleistocene


    glacial fluctuations.
    Obliquity and precession are the underlying, controlling
    variables that influence climate through their impact on
    planetary insolation.

    Obliquity: ~ 41,000-yr period


    precession of the equinoxes: ~ 21,000yr period

    Broecker, Imbrie, and others have provided strong suggestive


    evidence that orbital changes induced climatic change

    Uncertainties
    1. Which aspects of the radiation budget are critical to
    climatic change? e.g. Different predictions from same
    astronomical data depending on latitude & season used:

    65 N summer insolation curve for world climate


    prediction; should be critical to the growth and decay of
    ice sheets (Milankovi, Koppen and Wegener)
    critical time may be September and October in both
    hemispheres (Kukla 1975)

    Resulting in range for last interglacial from 80,000


    180,000 yr ago

    10

    Uncertainties
    2. Geological chronology

    150,000-yr testing interval limit due to dating method


    inaccuracies (until ~ mid 1970s)
    Data: Barbados, New Guinea, and Hawaiian coral terraces
    record episodes of high sea level ( low ice volume)
    consistent with Milankovitheory

    11

    Eccentricity

    (Ruddiman 2001)
    12

    Eccentricity
    At perihelion, Earth receives ~3.5% more radiation aphelion

    (Ruddiman 2001)
    13

    Obliquity
    Obliquity, , angle between equatorial and ecliptic planes
    Current value: 23.4
    range: 22.1 to 24.5
    ~ 41,000-yr mean period.
    As increases:
    summer radiation increases (at high-latitudes)
    Winter radiation totals decline

    14

    Tilt and precession

    15

    Eccentricity-modulated precession

    16

    (Ruddiman 2001)
    17

    18

    Strategy
    Most of these hypotheses single out mechanisms of
    climatic change which are presumed to respond to
    particular elements in the insolation regime
    Hays et al. generalization and assumption:
    treat secular orbital changes as a forcing function of a
    system whose output is the geological record of
    climate-without identifying or evaluating the
    mechanisms through which climate is modified by
    changes in the global pattern of incoming radiation.
    Assumption: climate system responds linearly to
    orbital forcing.
    19

    Methods: core selection


    Hays et al. selected two CLIMAP cores (RC11-120 and E49-18) for
    testing the orbital hypothesis.

    450,000-yr continuous climatic record


    accumulation rates (> 3 cm 1,000 yr -1) resolve climatic fluctuations
    with periods below 20,000 yr.
    location provides an opportunity to monitor simultaneously both
    Northern Hemisphere (NH) ice volume and Southern Hemisphere
    (SH) temperature.

    20

    Geologic data
    1. 18O, planktonic foraminifera
    2. Ts, summer sea-surface temperature (SST) derived from
    statistical analysis of radiolarian assemblages
    3. percentage of Cycladophora davisiana, the relative
    abundance of a radiolarian species not used in the
    estimation of Ts18O reviewOrbital data

    21

    18O

    16O

    accounts for ~ 99.8% of natural oxygen


    18O/16O ~ 1/400 = 0.0025

    Average 18O value of ocean water = 0.0


    1 o/oo 18O in foraminifera shells 4.2C
    Ice sheet growth causes 18O
    18Oc = 18Ow x 0.23 T
    18O variations are recorded in CaCO3
    benthic foraminifera shells that take oxygen from
    bicarbonate ions
    22

    Stratigraphic sequence
    deep-sea sediments provide a basic 1,000,000-yr
    stratigraphy
    1000-yr resolution limited by mixing and
    bioturbation

    23

    24

    25

    Correlations
    C. davisiana
    maxima are ~ correlated in time with
    Ts minima and 18O maxima
    not correlated in amplitude

    26

    27

    28

    Frequency-Domain Tests

    Milankovitch theory postulates two systems operating in


    series:
    1. radiation system transforms orbital signals (obliquity and
    precession) into a set of insolation signals (dep. on latitude
    & season).
    2. insolation signals are transformed by a second, explicitly
    formulated climate-response system into (predicted)
    climate curves.

    Hays et al. postulate a single, radiation-climate system that


    transforms orbital inputs into climatic outputs.
    Assumptions:

    Timeinvariant, linear system that can described by a linear


    differential equation with constant coefficients.

    29

    Precessional index (esin)


    climatic effect of precession is a function of
    , the longitude of perihelion based on the moving equinox
    e
    solar intensity (latitude & season dependent) varies as esin
    Precessional index (esin) to deviation from 1950 value of
    June earth-sun distance
    index range: +0.03 to -0.07
    mean period ~ 21,000 yr

    30

    31

    Frequency analysis of astronomical data

    32

    Frequency analysis of astronomical data


    the three dominant cycles in these spectra
    (41,000, 23,000, and 19,000 years) correspond to
    those observed in obliquity and precession
    spectra
    insolation spectra are characterized by frquencies
    reflecting obliquity and precession, but not
    eccentricity.
    Second, the relative importance of the insolation
    components due to obliquity and precession
    varies with latitude and season.

    33

    (Ruddiman 2001)
    34

    Frequency analysis of geological data


    same techniques as applied to astronomical data

    35

    36

    37

    38

    39

    Power spectra

    (Ruddiman 2001)
    40

    (Ruddiman 2001)
    41

    (Ruddiman 2001)
    42

    (Ruddiman 2001)
    43

    (Ruddiman 2001)
    44

    Summary
    1. Three indices of global climate (Ts, 18O, C. davisiana %)
    have been monitored in the record of the past 450,000
    years in SH ocean-floor sediments.
    2. Over the frequency range 10-4 to 10-5 cycle/year, climatic
    variance of these records is concentrated in three discrete spectral peaks at periods of 23,000, 42,000, and ~
    100,000 yrs, corresponding to the dominant periods of
    the earth's solar orbit, and containing respectively ~ 10,
    25, and 50% of the climatic variance.
    3. The 42,000-yr climatic component has the same period
    as variations in the obliquity of the earth's axis and
    retains a constant phase relationship with it.
    4. The 23,000-year portion of the variance displays the
    same periods (about 23,000 and 19,000 years) as the
    quasi-periodic precession index.
    45

    Summary
    5. The dominant, 100,000-yr climatic component has an
    average period close to, and is in phase with, orbital eccentricity. Unlike the correlations between climate and
    the higher-frequency orbital variations (which can be explained on the assumption that the climate system
    responds linearly to orbital forcing), an explanation of the
    correlation between climate and eccentricity probably
    requires an assumption of non-linearity.
    6. It is concluded that changes in the earth's orbital
    geometry are the fundamental cause of the succession
    of Quaternary ice ages.
    7. A model of future climate based on the observed orbitalclimate relationships, but ignoring anthropogenic effects,
    predicts that the long-term trend over the next several
    thousand years is toward extensive Northern
    Hemisphere glaciation.
    46

    You might also like