ICT and The Environment:: A Framework For Analysis

ICT and the environment:
A framework for analysis

John Houghton
Centre for Strategic Economic Studies
Victoria University, Melbourne
John.Houghton@vu.edu.au
+61 409 239 109
ICT has both positive and negative

impacts on the environment
Positive impacts can come from:
Dematerialization and online delivery;
A reduction in the need for travel;
A host of modeling, monitoring and management applications; and
Greater
G t energy efficiency
ffi i
iin production
d ti and
d use, and
d recycling.
li
Negative impacts can come from:

The production and distribution of ICT equipment;
Energy consumption in use (directly and for cooling);
Short
Sh t product
d t lif
life-cycles
l and
d e-waste;
t and
d
Potentially exploitative applications.
The balance of outcomes

o tcomes depends on incenti
incentives
es and policies
policies.
The Knowledge Economy:
Energy use and intensity in historical perspective
Goods industries
Energy used (PJ)
Value added (USD bn)
Intensity (MJ/USD)
Services
Energy used (PJ)
Intensity (MJ/USD)
Transport
Energy used (PJ)
Intensity (MJ/USD)
Residential
Energy used (PJ)
Value added ((USD bn))
Intensity (MJ/USD)
Total
Energy used (PJ)
Intensity (MJ/USD)
1974
1995
Change in
energy use
19741995
Annual change
197495
(% pa)
28 611.1
611 1
2 091.7
13.7
26 692.2
692 2
3 209.0
8.3
-1
1 918.9
918 9
-0.3
03
2.1
-2.3
6 024.7
3 428.4
1.8
7 339.4
6 670.2
1.1
1 314.7
0.9
3.2
-2.2
22 367.0
258 5
258.5
86.5
34 703.7
475 3
475.3
73.0
12 336.7
2.1
29
2.9
-0.8
13 828.9
806.8
17.1
16 261.4
1973.1
8.2
2 432.5
0.8
4.4
-3.4
70 831.6
6 585.4
10 8
10.8
84 996.6
12 327.6
69
6.9
14 165.0
0.9
3.0
-2.1
21
Notes: The countries included in this table are USA, Japan, UK, France and Australia. The goods industries consist of manufacturing;
agriculture, forestry and fishing, mining and construction. Energy use is measured in petajoules (PJ), GDP is measured in USD billion in
1990 purchasing power parity prices.
Source: CSES (2006) Climate Change, Industrial Structure and the Knowledge Economy, Victoria University.
The Knowledge Economy:
Energy use and intensity in historical perspective

Index of final energy intensity and energy intensity by sector,
sector EU-25
EU 25
Households
Transport
Source: Eurostat and the European Commissions Ameco database.
Estimated global CO2 emissions:
ICTs excluding radio and television (Circa 2006)
LAN and office telecoms

7%
Printers
6%
Mobile telecoms
9%
(1 Gigatonne of CO2 equivalent)
PCs and monitors (excl.

embodied energy)
40%
Fixed-line telecoms
15%
Servers (incl. cooling)

23%
Kumar, R. & Mieritz, L. (2007) Conceptualizing Green IT and data center power and cooling issues, Gartner Research Paper.
The New Scientist:
Can we stop the Internet destroying our planet?
http://technology.newscientist.com/channel/tech/mg19726372.700-can-we-stop-the-internet-destroying-our-planet.html
Electricity use for servers, 2000

2000-05:
05:
Incl. associated cooling and auxiliary equipment
Koomey, J. (2007) Estimating total power consumption by servers in the U.S. and the world, Analytics Press,
Oakland.
Industry and firm initiatives:

Turning Green into Gold
Guide to Greener Electronics:

The Greener-meter
Source: http://www.greenpeace.org/international/campaigns/toxics/electronics/how-the-companies-line-up/embed-the-guide-to-greener-ele
The Rebound Effect
Elasticities, income effects, prices and taxes are key

In his 1865 book The Coal
Question, Jevons observed that
England's consumption of coal
soared
d after
f
JJames Watt
W
introduced his coal-fired steam
engine, which greatly improved
th efficiency
the
ffi i
off Thomas
Th
Newcomen's earlier design. Watt's
innovations made coal a more
cost effective power source
source,
leading to the increased use of
the steam engine in a wide range
of industries
industries. This in turn
increased total coal consumption,
even as the amount of coal
required for any particular
application fell.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox
The Rebound Effect

The evidence to date
The
h effects
ff
off Jevon's
' paradox
d in relation
l
to energy efficiency
ff
in
the United States is not generally apparent.
While
h l totall vehicle
h l miles
l traveled
l d have
h
increased
d 16% between
b
1991 and
d
2001, there is no evidence that owners of hybrid vehicles drove twice as
much just because their cars were twice as efficient.
...we have not seen evidence that radically more efficient commercial
buildings cause people to leave the lights on all night and set their office
thermostats five degrees lower
lower. In fact
fact, energy savings in everything from
office towers to schools have often been higher than projected. People do
not seem to change their behaviors simply because they have a more
efficient
ffi i t b
building.
ildi
So far, the evidence from the field of more efficient technologies

suggests that these technologies do decrease energy use
use.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox
Policy initiatives with immediate

effect are necessary
Policies
l
with
h immediate
d
effect,
ff
in the
h sense off substantially
b
ll
reducing global emissions relative to the reference path prior to
2020 are urgently needed if large scale damage is to be avoided
2020,
avoided.
In several senses climate change is now an immediate and not a
long
g run issue. Rapid
p growth
g
in emissions,, such as to greatly
g
y
increase the risks of large scale climate damage, is occurring
now, and on present policies emissions will almost double their
2000 level by 2020. This emissions path will in turn lead to rapid
global warming over the next two decades. Thus, while the full
impacts of increasing greenhouse gases will emerge over
centuries and indeed millennia, both the central causes and the
immediate effects are immediate realities.
Source: CSES (2006) Climate Change, Industrial Structure and the Knowledge Economy, Victoria University, Melbourne, p30.
Energy efficiency and alternative energy systems
We need to get a clearer picture of the range and nature of

ICTs direct, indirect and systemic impacts on the
environment
i
t a review
i
ffocusing
i on what
h t iis kknown about
b t
impacts (e.g. where they occur, how big they are, where
they are positive and where negative).
negative)
Such a review would help to identify priority areas for focus
(e.g.
e g where there are simple and immediate initiatives that
could make a difference).
W
We also
l need
d tto examine
i ways tto make
k ICT
ICTs zero-carbon,
b
not just energy efficient, and to find ways for ICTs to
support and enable the transition to alternative energy
systems.
There are also basic research questions

We need to understand why and where Rebound Effects might
be significant, and what might be done to mitigate them.
We need to better understand inter-relationships and model
interactions through key value chains/networks, to better
foresee flow-on
flow on impacts and understand the complementary
investments needed for alternative energy systems.
base-line
line statistics and metrics that might
We need to establish base
be monitored over time (e.g. extend work on ICT energy
consumption projections across a range of equipment types).
We need to extend and update sectoral models, to explore the
relationship between changing industrial structures and energy
consumption.
The challenge
Can we stop the Internet destroying our planet?
Can we save our planet

from the Internet?
asked The New Scientist
Well we probably cant save it
without So the challenge is to
without.
show, not only how to save the
planet from ICT,
ICT but how to save
it with ICT.

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ICT and the environment:

A framework for analysis

ICT has both positive and negative

Negative impacts can come from:

The balance of outcomes

The Knowledge Economy:

Energy use and intensity in historical perspective

The Knowledge Economy:

Energy use and intensity in historical perspective

Source: Eurostat and the European Commissions Ameco database.

Centre for Strategic Economic Studies

Estimated global CO2 emissions:

ICTs excluding radio and television (Circa 2006)

LAN and office telecoms

(1 Gigatonne of CO2 equivalent)

PCs and monitors (excl.

Servers (incl. cooling)

Centre for Strategic Economic Studies

The New Scientist:

Can we stop the Internet destroying our planet?

Centre for Strategic Economic Studies

Electricity use for servers, 2000

Centre for Strategic Economic Studies

Industry and firm initiatives:

Centre for Strategic Economic Studies

Guide to Greener Electronics:

Centre for Strategic Economic Studies

The Rebound Effect

Elasticities, income effects, prices and taxes are key

Centre for Strategic Economic Studies

The Rebound Effect

So far, the evidence from the field of more efficient technologies

Centre for Strategic Economic Studies

Policy initiatives with immediate

A framework for analysis

Energy efficiency and alternative energy systems

We need to get a clearer picture of the range and nature of

Centre for Strategic Economic Studies

A framework for analysis

There are also basic research questions

Can we stop the Internet destroying our planet?

Can we save our planet

Centre for Strategic Economic Studies

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