Lecture 2

Seed Demand Forecasting And Planning For Certified, Foundation And

Breeder Seed Production
Demand Forecasting of seed
In adequate estimation of demand and the consequences of over production
or under production can cause serious financial consequences for a seed company.
Too many carryovers and stock write-offs will prove to be expensive, while lack of
seed means a loss of revenue and a source of frustration for the sales force and the
dealer network. This combination of special features in the seed industry makes the
accurate assessment of demand even more critical. Some of these features are Longer period of time for the development new products from breeding
programmes
Seasonality of production
Production subject to variables like agro climatic conditions outside the
control of management
Statutory controls and quality standards
Existence of a generation system where by the production in one
year is the progenitor the next
Limited shelf like and loss of germination
Seed replacement rate: Seed Replacement Rate is the rate at which
the farmers replace the seeds instead of using their own seeds
Seed Replacement Rate of Select Crops :
2005-06 Crop

SRR (%)

Paddy
17
Milletss
7
Pulses
12.5
Cottton - Rainfed /Irrigated
10/15
Groundnut
5
Gingelly
15
Sunflower
50
Castor
30
Soyabean
20
Source: Narrative notes on Plan Programme-2005-06, S.P.C, ,Chennai.
Factors which affect demand

It is important to distinguish between actual demand, perceived demand and

what the government expects the farmers to buy. The total amount of certified or
labelled seed sold may be quite a small proportion of the total requirement.
Many factors have to be considered while assessing and forecasting demand. Some
of these are:
Cropping pattern and intensity
Type of seed used
Climate
Demand for crop products
Market scenario
Disposable farm income
Rate or level of adoption of new technology
Government policy
Crop cycles
Habits and tradition
Product performance
Competitiveness
Price
Promotion
The most important factors that need to be taken into account when an
individual company or organization is estimating the market share that may be
gained by its own products are product performance, competitive positioning, price
and promotion. This will form the basis of sales forecasting and production planning.
Demand forecasting techniques
Forecasting is the process of making projections of demand for products by
examining past and present performance levels, combined with an assessment of
available products and markets. This may be carried out within the government
service or by individual companies in a purely commercial context. The following
approaches can be used:
Target setting: This method is commonly used in developing countries where
government is directly involved in planning and seed supply. In a centrally managed

economy, targets are likely to be set at a national level and production plans fixed
for each region.
India is an example of a more open economy where both the public and private
sectors coexist in a well-developed seed industry, but where the government retains
a coordinating function and has the ultimate responsibility for the security of seed
supply. The Ministry of Agriculture sets the targets and organizes meetings to
establish the supply situation and production plans of the various organizations
involved.
Companies may opt to set a target for an ideal sales level while, at the same
time, recognizing that this is unlikely to be achieved and budgeting for a more
achievable situation.
Growth trends: This approach is based on the assumption that the rate of growth
of seed demand as seen in past years will continue. This may give unrealistically
high forecasts and will depend on the stage of market development for improved
seeds. Small increases in volume in the early stages of improved seed use will
represent a large increase in percentage terms, which may not be possible to
sustain.
Growth rates adjusted for new technology adoption: Using this approach a
given region is considered on the basis of degrees of new technology uptake and
the likely speed of change. Each part of the region can then be categorized as 'low'
to 'medium' or 'high' growth, better reflecting the overall situation.
Sampling: The accuracy of the above approaches can be improved if sample
groups of farmers are questioned to gauge their anticipated demand for seed. This
exercise is more reliable where there is a reasonable awareness of the benefits of
using improved seeds.
SEED PRODUCTION
To meet the Nation's food security needs, it is important to make available to
Indian farmers a wide range of seeds of superior quality, in adequate quantity on a
timely basis. Public Sector Seed Institutions will be encouraged to enhance
production of seed towards meeting the objective of food and nutritional security.

The Indian seed programme adheres to the limited three generation system of
seed multiplication, namely, breeder, foundation and certified seed. Breeder seed is
the progeny of nucleus seed.
Nucleus seed is the seed produced by the breeder to develop the particular
variety and is directly used for multiplication as breeder seed.
Breeder seed is the seed material directly controlled by the originating or the
sponsoring breeder or Institution for the initial and recurring production of
foundation seed.
Foundation seed is the progeny of breeder seed. Foundation seed may also
be produced from foundation seed. Production of foundation seed stage-I and
stage-II may thus be permitted, if supervised and approved by the
Certification Agency and if the production process is so handled as to
maintain specific genetic purity and identity.
Certified seed is the progeny of foundation seed or the progeny of certified
seed. If the certified seed is the progeny of certified seed, then this
reproduction will not exceed three generations beyond foundation stage-I and
it will be ascertained by the Certification Agency that genetic identity and
genetic purity has not been significantly altered.
Recommended System of Breeder Seed Indent and Supply
1. Every State shall provide the agro-climatic zone-wise, district-wise and
variety-wise quantity of certified/quality seeds sold and area covered in the
previous Kharif/Rabi season along with SRR, productivity data to ICAR, DAC
and SAUs by 1st December for Kharif crops and 1st May for Rabi
crops.
2. ICAR shall prepare and circulate a list of State/area/agro-climatic zonespecific recommended varieties/hybrids of seeds particularly the newly
released varieties/hybrids for cultivation along with relevant data regarding
their yield potential, duration etc. to every State on or before 1st January
for Kharif crops and 1st June for Rabi Crops with copy to Seed Division,
DAC.
3. SAUs shall do a similar exercise in respect of State varieties.

4. Each State in consultation with ICAR Institutes, SAUs and Seed producing
Agencies shall formulate seed plan (for Breeder, Foundation and Certified
Seed) for the cropping seasons on the basis of an assessment of existing and
new varieties in terms of actual or potential yield in each district/agro-climatic
zone.
5. State Governments shall submit the seed plan and the Breeder Seeds indent
to DAC, ICAR, SAUs. The Breeder Seed Indent shall be submitted to the SAUs
directly for State varieties and submitted to Seeds Division DAC/ICAR for
national varieties by 15th January for Kharif crops and 15th June for
Rabi crops.
6. Private seed companies will also place the breeder seed indent by 15th
January for Kharif crops and 15th June for Rabi crops through National
Seeds Association of India (NSAI) to Seeds Division, DAC.
7. DAC shall compile all the Breeder Seed Indents of States and private seed
companies and furnish them to ICAR/ concerned PDs/PCs for production of the
breeder seeds.
8. The breeder seed will be allotted to all States and private seed companies for
lifting from institutes of ICAR, SAUs to produce foundation and certified seed.
9. The Lifting of Breeder Seed is to be monitored every 15 days jointly by DAC
and ICAR.
10.To popularise new varieties and to induce confidence among the farmers
apart from Front Line Demonstrations (FLDs), each ICAR centre, SAU and KVK
shall adopt 1-2 villages in a block in an agroclimatic zone of the State for
demonstration in participatory mode in the farmers fields to demonstrate the
productivity/potential of the new variety with an appropriate mix of inputs
and practices. State Government extension staff willfully participates in the
finalisation plan of FLDs-list of farmers training etc.
11.In case of hybrids of important food crops such as paddy hybrids the State
Agriculture Universities shall take the responsibility in large scale production
of Pure high quality parental lines (A Lines, R Lines) (Breeder and foundation
seed). It would be ensured that NSC, SFCI, State Seeds Corporations will
procure the foundation seeds on priority.
12.SAUs shall provide foundation seed to all State Seed Corporations, State Seed
Farms, NSC, SFCI and Private Seed Companies for taking up large scale hybrid

seed production and make it available to farmers at affordable prices. SAUs

may also take up large-scale hybrid seed production in their Farms.
Deterioration of Crop Varieties Causes and Maintenance
Deterioration of Genetic Purity
The genetic purity of a variety or trueness to its type deteriorates due to
several factors during the production cycles. Kadam (1942) listed the following
important factors responsible for deterioration of varieties.
1. Developmental variations
2. Mechanical mixtures
3. Mutations
4. Natural crossing
5. Minor genetic variations
6. Selected influence of pest and diseases
7. The techniques of the plant breeder
1. Developmental Variations
When seed crops are grown under environments with differing soil fertility,
climate, photoperiods, or at different elevations for several consecutive generation's
developmental variations may set in as differential growth responses. It is therefore,
preferred to grow the varieties of crops in the areas of their natural adaptation to
minimize developmental shifts.
2. Mechanical Mixtures
Mechanical mixtures, the most important reason for varietal deterioration,
often take place at the time of sowing if more than one variety is sown with the
same seed drill, through volunteer plants of the same crop in the seed field, or
through different varieties grown in adjacent fields. Two varieties growing next to
each other field is usually mixed during harvesting and threshing operations. The
threshing equipment is often contaminated with seeds of other varieties. Similarly,
the gunny bags, seed bins and elevators are also often contaminate, adding to the
mechanical mixtures of varieties. Roguing the seed fields critically and using utmost
care during seed production and processing are necessary to avoid such mechanical
contamination.
3. Mutations

Mutations do not seriously deteriorate varieties. It is often difficult to identify

or detect minor mutations occurring naturally. Mutants such as, 'fatuoids' in oats or
'rabbit ear' in peas may be removed by roguing from seed plots to purify the seeds.
4. Natural Crossing
Natural crossing can be an important source of varietal deterioration in
sexually propagated crops. The extent of contamination depends upon the
magnitude of natural cross-fertilization. The deterioration sets in due to natural
crossing with undesirable types, diseased plants or off types. In self-fertilized crops,
natural crossing is not a serious source of contamination unless variety is male
sterile and is grown in close proximity with other varieties. The natural crossing,
however, can be major source of contamination due to natural crossing are the
breeding system of the species, isolation distance, varietal mass and pollinating
agent. The direction of prevailing winds, the numbers of insects present and their
activity and mass of varieties are also important considerations in contamination by
natural crossing.
The isolation of seed crops is the most important factor in avoiding contamination of
the cross-fertilized crops.
5. Minor Genetic Variations
Minor genetic variations can occur even in varieties appearing phenotypically
uniform and homogenous when released. The variations may lost during later
production cycles owing to selective elimination by the nature. The yield trials of
lines propagated from plants of breeder's seed to maintain the purity of selfpollinated crop varieties can overcome these minor variations. Due care during the
maintenance of nucleus and breeder's seed of cross-fertilized varieties of crop is
necessary.
6. Selected Influence of Pest and Diseases
New crop varieties often are susceptible to newer races of pests and diseases
caused by obligate parasites and thus selectively influence deterioration. The
vegetatively propagated stock also can deteriorate quickly if infected by virus, fungi
or bacteria. Seed production under strict disease free conditions is therefore
essential.
7. The Techniques of the Plant Breeder:
Serious instabilities may occur in varieties owing to cytogenetic irregularities
in the form of improper assessments in the release of new varieties. Premature

release of varieties, still segregating for resistance and susceptibility to diseases or

other factors can cause significant deterioration of varieties. This failure can be
attributed to the variety testing programme.
In addition to these factors, other heritable variations due to recombination's and
polyploidisation may also take place in varieties during seed production, which can
be avoided by periodical selection during maintenance of the seed stock.
Maintenance of Genetic Purity during seed Production
The various steps suggested, to maintain varietal purity, are as follows.
a. Use of approved seed only in seed multiplication.
b. Inspection and approval of fields prior to planting.
c. Field inspection and approval of growing crops at critical stages for
verification of genetic purity, detection of mixtures, weeds, and for
freedom from noxious weeds and seed borne diseases etc.
d. Sampling and sealing of cleaned lots
e. Growing of samples of potentially approved stocks for comparison with
authentic stocks.
The various steps suggested for maintaining genetic purity are as follows:
a. Providing adequate isolation to prevent contamination by natural crossing
or mechanical mixtures
b. Rouging of seed fields prior to the stage at which they could contaminate
the seed crop.
c. Periodic testing of varieties for genetic purity.
d. Avoiding genetic shifts by growing crops in areas in their adaptation only.
e. Certification of seed crops to maintain genetic purity and quality of seed.
f.

Adopting the generation system.

g. Grow out tests.

Genetic Purity Maintenance in Hybrid Seeds
Maintenance of the genetic purity of hybrid seeds is a complicated one
requiring elaborate procedures.
Nucleus Seed of Inbred Lines
The nucleus seed of inbred lines can be maintained by self pollination, sibpollination, or a combination of the two procedures (hand pollination).

 Some breeders prefer 'sibbing" because it maintains vigour. "Selfing" is used

to stabilize inbred lines if a change in breeding behavior is noticed.
Some parental material is preferably maintained by alternate selfing and
sibbing from one generation to other.
Individually selfed or sibbed ears should be examined critically, discarding off
types or inferior characteristics (texture, colour, seed size, chaff color and
shape of earhead).
The uniform ears are then threshed separately and planted in ear to row
method to easily detect and discard off types from individual ears if any.
Alternatively all of the ears from an individual inbred line may be composited
for bulk planting in the next season.
The hand pollination seed is sown on clean, fertile soil having no previous
crop of the same kind or variety during the previous year (bearing maize).
It is rather important to ensure that the crop is well isolated, with the
requirement varying from crop to crop and depending upon the nature of the
material to be protected by isolation, the nature of the contaminant, and the
direction of the prevailing wind.
The isolation can be achieved either by distance or by time (maize). The
inbred line may be composited for bulk planting in the next season.
Maintenance of genetic purity in inbred lines through hand pollination and
adequate isolation alone is not enough to achieve perfection.
The isolated fields must be critically rogued for off types and other impure
types prior to the shedding of pollen.
The nucleus seed crop is harvested after physiological maturity if artificial
drying facilities exist.
Ear to harvest lines are harvested separately and piled; These are again
critically examined for ear characteristics, sorting out of all off-coloured,
diseased, or otherwise undesirable ears.
If the overall percentage of off types exceeds 0.1%, hand pollination should
be repeated to produce the second year's breeders seed.
The uniform ears are bulked, dried in a clean dry bin at temperatures not
exceeding 430C, shelled, cleaned, treated with pesticides, and stored under
ideal storage conditions as breeder stock seed. This seed may be increased

during the following season by paying adequate attention to isolation,

roguing, etc., to maintain high genetic purity of the seed.
Nucleus Seed of Non-Inbred Lines
To maintain in the genetic purity of the nucleus seed of non-inbred lines, the
number of plants for hand pollination should be large enough to preserve
genetic make up of the variety, narrowing the genetic base by sibbing only a
few plants (about 5000 plants or more).
The sibbed ears are examined critically, discarding of colour, texture, or
diseased ones.
Uniform ears are bulked, dried, shelled, cleaned, treated and stored as usual.
Other practices of seeding sibbed nucleus seeds are similar to those
described earlier for inbred lines.
Roguing however, needs to be observed more critically by individuals with
good knowledge of the material.
The breeder's stock seed thus produced from the nucleus seed can be utilized
to increase the breeder's stock of non-inbred lines, paying adequate attention
to land requirements, isolation, roguing, harvesting and handling of seed to
achieve maximum genetic purity.
The breeder's seed of the established varieties of cross-pollinated crops can
be maintained by raising breeder's seed crop in isolation and roguing the
crop thoroughly at various stages.
It is often purified by mass selection.
The crop is grown in isolation and rogued carefully as described earlier.
At maturity about 20,000 - 25000 true to type plants are selected, harvested
separately, and bulked after careful examination.
This constitutes the breeder's stock seed. The seed may be carried over to
ensure against possible failures or unforeseen shortages
Seed Quality
Seed is a basic input in agriculture. Strictly speaking seed is an embryo, a
living organism embedded in the supporting or the food storage tissue. In seed, the
importance is given to the biological existence whereas; in grain the importance is
given to the supporting tissue the economic produce.

Seed is defined as
A ripened ovule or a fertilized matured ovule containing embryo which has
developed after fertilization.
The dry dispersal unit or matured ovule developed after fertilization
Any part (or) organ of plant which has the capability to regenerate into a new
plant
A propagule responsible for maintaining the intrinsic (or) genetic qualities of
the variety / hybrid.
An embryo, a living organism embeded in the supporting (or) the food
storage tissue and a protective coat.
Any propagative material.
Miniature plant.
Dormant plant
Link between two generations
Carrier of service material.
Generative part of a plant that develop into a new plant.
However, the widely accepted definition for a seed is matured ovule that
consisting of an embryonic plant together with a store of food, all surrounded by a
protective coat.
As per Seed Act (1966) seed includes
Seed of food crops including edible oil seeds and seeds of fruits & vegetables.
Cotton seeds
Seeds of cattle fodder
Jute seeds
Seedlings, tubers, bulbs, rhizomes, roots, cuttings, all types of grafts and
other vegetatively propagated material for food crops (or) cattle fodder.

Differences between seed and grain

Seed

Grain

It should be a viable one

It should have maximum

genetic

&

Need not be a viable one

Not so

physical purity
Should satisfy minimum seed certification

No such requirements

standards
It should be completely treated with

It should never be treated with any

pesticide

chemicals,

/fungicide

to

protect

seed

against storage pests and fungi

Respiration rate and other physiological

since

used

for

consumption
No such specifications

and biological processes should be kept

at low level during storage
Should be compulsorily certified / truthful

No

labelled
Should never be converted into grain

production
Can be converted as seed provided

unless warranted
It should satisfy all the quality norms

the situation warrants

Not considered

such

condition

in

grain

Importance of seed
Seed is the vital input in crop production because through seed only the
investment made on other inputs like pesticide, fertilizer, irrigation and crop
maintenance can be realized. The seed required for raising the crop is quite small
and its cost is also less compare to other inputs, but the greater income farmer gets
depends upon the quality of the small quantity of seed he uses.
In addition to above seed is the basic for the following event of agriculture.
A carrier of new technologies
In India for instance, the cultivation of high yielding varieties have helped to
increase food production form 52 million tonnes to more than 200 million tones over
a period of 50 years.
A basic tool for secured food supply
The successful implementation of the High Yielding Varieties Programme
(HYVP) in India has led to a remarkable increase in production and to a new
assessment of future development potential. As a result, food imports from other
countries have been substantially brought down inspite of the rapid population
increase.
The principal means to secure crop yields in less favourable production
areas

The supply of good quality seeds of improved varieties suitable to these areas
is one of the few important immediate contribution to secure higher crop yields.
A medium for rapid rehabilitation of agriculture in cases of natural
disaster
Widespread floods and droughts in various parts of the country and
elsewhere have focused attention on these recurrent crises and the accompanying
threats of famine and starvation. The establishment of National Seed Reserve
Stocks should receive high priority for meeting such natural calamities.
This would provide improved seeds in emergency periods to production areas
for rapid production of food grains.
This would supply seeds to disaster regions for resowing, as no seed would
normally be available in such regions.