RESULTS REVIEW 2QFY18 14 NOV 2017

GMDC
BUY
INDUSTRY MINING Strong off-peak quarter, acceleration hereon
CMP (as on 13 Nov17) Rs 164
GMDC 2QFY18 numbers were ahead of estimates Highlights of the quarter
Target Price Rs 216 (EBITDA: Rs 1.01bn, 53.3/(45.0)% YoY/QoQ, Est Strong volume growth (1.67 mT, 55.6% YoY) continued.
Nifty 10,225 714mn), mainly due to higher realisations at Mata- Mata-no-madh is now the mainstay of GMDC mining
Sensex 33,034 no-Madh which saw pricing improve sharply ops, delivering 42.4/45.9% of lignite volume/revenues.
KEY STOCK DATA
(Rs1,975/t, 21.9/46.5% YoY/QoQ). Power division Further, Panandhro continues to deliver some
delivered EBITDA/kWh of Rs 1.53 (13.2/23.2% volumes, freeing up Mata-no-madh volumes for
Bloomberg GMDC
YoY/QoQ) mainly due to higher proportion of wind in external customers. EBITDA/t for lignite business (Rs
No. of Shares (mn) 314 the mix. 377/t, 2x/(25.2)% YoY/QoQ) is better than FY17
MCap (Rs bn) / ($ mn) 52/795 (Rs328/t), despite 2Q being seasonally weaker.
2QFY18 is the first quarter under the new GST
6m avg traded value (Rs mn) 121 regime, with lower taxation on lignite improving its Akrimota witnessed lower PLFs (57%) during the
STOCK PERFORMANCE (%) attractiveness vis--vis competitive fuels. GMDC quarter, while wind PLFs remained stable at 30%.
52 Week high / low Rs 181 / 89 lignite remains extremely competitive vs alternatives Near-term outlook: 2HFY18 will continue to see strong
and this may also spur price hikes in future (Not volume growth with some moderation (vs 1HFY18:
3M 6M 12M
included in our numbers). We also expect (or rather, 42%) due to a higher base. Blended pricing is expected
Absolute (%) 23.4 22.8 59.8 hope) improved payouts in future, given lower state to improve further as both higher priced mines
Relative (%) 17.6 13.4 36.6 tax revenues from GMDC under GST. Maintain BUY (Tadekshwar and Rajpardi) had lower volumes due to
SHAREHOLDING PATTERN (%) with a TP of Rs 216 (6.5x Sep 19 EV/EBITDA). Our TP flooding. We have revised our estimates higher on
implies a valuation of Rs 15/61 mn/MW for account of better pricing from Mata-no-madh
Promoters 74.00
thermal/wind assets (Pg. 5) witnessed in 2QFY18.
FIs & Local MFs 11.45
FPIs 4.16 Financial Summary (Standalone)
Public & Others 10.39 (Rs mn) 2QFY18 2QFY17 YoY(%) 1QFY18 QoQ(%) FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E
Source : BSE Net Sales 3,457 2,416 43.1 5,831 (40.7) 11,787 15,367 20,832 23,310 25,203
EBITDA 1,007 657 53.3 1,833 (45.0) 3,136 4,668 6,200 7,161 7,412
Ankur Kulshrestha, CFA PAT 1,130 729 55.0 1,429 (21.0) 2,246 3,242 4,308 5,214 5,665
ankur.kulshrestha@hdfcsec.com
Diluted EPS (Rs) 3.55 2.29 55.0 4.49 (21.0) 7.1 10.2 13.5 16.4 17.8
+91-22-6171 7346
P/E (x) 23.2 16.0 12.1 10.0 9.2
Meera Midha EV / EBITDA (x) 13.6 10.2 6.6 5.1 4.2
meera.midha@hdfcsec.com RoE (%) 6.2 8.5 10.4 11.6 11.5
+91-22-6171 7334 Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research
HDFC securities Institutional Research is also available on Bloomberg HSLB <GO>& Thomson Reuters
 GMDC: RESULTS REVIEW 2QFY18

2QFY18 revenues jumped Quarterly Financials Snapshot

43.1% YoY driven by mining (Rs mn) 2QFY18 2QFY17 YoY (%) 1QFY18 QoQ (%)
segment which saw volumes Net Sales 3,457 2,416 43.1 5,831 (40.7)
jump 55.6% YoY and pricing Mining 2,626 1,571 67.1 4,989 (47.4)
Power 1,081 1,224 (11.7) 1,281 (15.6)
improve 27.3/16.1% YoY/QoQ
Employee costs 284 267 6.4 266 6.6
Other Operating Expenses 2,166 1,492 (42.0) 3,732 (42.0)
EBITDA 1,007 657 53.3 1,833 (45.0)
Other Income 313 584 (46.4) 259 20.8
Interest Cost 4 3 27.9 4 1.6
Depreciation 369 335 9.9 386 (4.5)
PBT 948 903 5.0 1,702 (44.3)
Tax (182) 174 (204.7) 273 (166.6)
APAT 1,130 729 55.0 1,429 (21.0)
E/o (adj for tax) 0 0 N/A 0 N/A
RPAT 1,130 729 55.0 1,429 (21.0)
Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research
Note: NM: Not Meaningful

Segmental Information
2QFY18 2QFY17 YoY (%) 1QFY18 QoQ (%)
Sharp jump in realisations in Revenues (Rs mn)
mining segment, mainly from Mining 2,626 1,571 67.1 4,989 (47.4)
Mata-no-Madh, which saw Power 1,081 1,224 (11.7) 1,281 (15.6)
pricing improve 21.9/46.5% Realisations
YoY/QoQ Mining (Rs/t) 1,822 1,431 27.3 1,569 16.1
Power (Rs/kWh) 2.62 2.60 1.1 2.74 (4.3)
EBITDA (Rs mn)
Mining 631 127 395.5 1,432 (55.9)
Power 563 636 (11.5) 581 (3.0)
Per unit profitability
Mining (Rs/t) 377 118 218.5 504 (25.2)
Power (Rs/kWh) 1.53 1.35 13.2 1.24 23.2
Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

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 GMDC: RESULTS REVIEW 2QFY18

Mata-no-madh is now the Operational Data

Operational Data 2QFY18 2QFY17 YoY (%) 1QFY18 QoQ (%)
mainstay of GMDC mining
Lignite Volumes (mnT) 1.7 1.1 55.6 2.8 (41.1)
ops, delivering 42.4/45.9% of
Panandhro 0.19 0.28 (31.5) 0.34 (43.9)
lignite volume/revenues.
Mata No Madh 0.71 0.25 187.0 0.96 (25.9)
Rajpardi 0.10 0.06 81.8 0.30 (67.1)
Blended pricing improved on
Tadkeshwar 0.07 0.08 (1.3) 0.58 (87.2)
account of sharp jump in
Bhavnagar 0.15 0.05 225.5 0.29 (47.1)
Mata-no-Madh pricing (up
Umarsar 0.45 0.38 19.4 0.38 18.5
21.9/46.5% YoY/QoQ
Lignite realisations (Rs/T) 1,822 1,431 27.3 1,569 16.1
Panandhro 1,376 833 65.1 593 131.8
Akrimota Power plant
Mata No Madh 1,975 1,619 21.9 1,348 46.5
delivered a lower PLF (57%)
Rajpardi 2,300 2,364 (2.7) 2,434 (5.5)
due to outage during the
Tadkeshwar 1,757 1,733 1.4 1,788 (1.8)
quarter Bhavnagar 1,765 1,702 3.7 1,799 (1.9)
Umarsar 1,693 1,516 11.7 1,794 (5.7)
Power volumes (mn Kwh) 411 470 (12.5) 467 (11.8)
Thermal (PLF%) 57% 62% 61%
Wind (PLF%) 30% 36% 30%
Solar (PLF%) 15% 14% 19%
Power unit prices (Rs/kWh)
Thermal 1.94 2.13 (9.1) 2.25 (13.9)
Wind 4.12 3.81 8.0 3.80 8.5
Solar 17.31 12.94 33.8 14.46 19.7
Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

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 GMDC: RESULTS REVIEW 2QFY18

GMDC lignite is one of the Comparative pricing of fuels

most attractive fuels post GST Lignite (GMDC, Mata-No-Madh) Petcoke Domestic SA - RB1 (CFR, India) Domestic coal (CIL, G11) Imported Coal (Indonesia)
Rs/mn cal
1.30

1.10

0.90

0.70

0.50

0.30

Jan-16

Jan-17
May-15

Jul-15

May-16

Jul-16

May-17

Jul-17
Jun-15

Jun-16

Jun-17
Dec-15

Dec-16
Mar-15

Mar-16

Mar-17
Oct-15

Oct-16
Aug-15

Aug-16

Aug-17
Apr-15

Apr-16

Apr-17
Sep-15

Nov-15

Feb-16

Sep-16

Nov-16

Feb-17

Sep-17
Source: Company, Steelmint, Bloomberg, HDFC sec Inst Research
Note: Prices inclusive respective levies. Petcoke : 8,000 kcal/kg, SA - RB1 - 6,000 kcal/kg, CIL, G4 - 6,250 kcal/kg, GMDC Lignite - 3,500 Kcal/kg,
CIL, G11 4,150 kcal/kg

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 GMDC: RESULTS REVIEW 2QFY18

Our TP implies a valuation of Sum of the parts valuation

Rs 15 mn/MW for thermal Valuation (Rs mn)
and Rs 61 mn/MW for wind Applicable EBITDA (Sep-19) 7,287
assets Applied multiple 6.5x
EV 51,006
Net Debt/(Cash) (21,468)
Implied Market cap 72,473
Target price (Rs) 216

Implied valuations of power businesses

Power division EBITDA 3,002
Akrimota EBITDA 590
Renewable Assets EBITDA 2,412

Implied EV of Akrimota TPP (Lignite based TPP, 250 MW) 3,835

Akrimota EV/MW (Rs Mn) 15
Implied EV of RE Assets (Wind: 250 MW, Solar 5 MW) 15,681
Renewable EV/MW (Rs Mn) 61
Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

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 GMDC: RESULTS REVIEW 2QFY18

Key Assumptions
We build in broadly stable FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E
realizations, the apparent Lignite production (mT) 6.98 7.65 9.75 10.45 11.20
increase is on account of Lignite realisations (Rs/T) 1,378 1,562 1,871 1,899 1,948
changing mine mix PLF for Akrimota Power plant 65% 64% 65% 65% 65%
Power units (mn kWh) 1,745 1,774 1,784 1,981 1,981
Power blended realisations (Rs/kWh) 2.2 2.5 2.7 2.9 2.9
Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

Comparative valuations
MCap CMP TP P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) RoE (%)
Company Reco
(Rs bn) (Rs) (Rs) FY19E FY20E FY19E FY20E FY19E FY20E
Coal India 1,707 275 300 BUY 14.3 13.2 7.2 6.5 54.7 66.0
MOIL 65 245 223 BUY 10.9 10.9 5.7 5.5 19.5 17.9
GMDC 52 164 216 BUY 10.0 9.2 5.1 4.2 11.6 11.5
Source: Company, Bloomberg, HDFC sec Inst Research, Prices as at November 13, 2017 close

Changes to estimates
Old New % Change
FY18E FY19E FY20E FY18E FY19E FY20E FY18E FY19E FY20E
We have revised our lignite Lignite production (mT) 9.7 10.3 11.0 9.8 10.5 11.2 1.0 1.5 1.8
business volume/realisation Realisations (Rs/T) 1,803 1,875 1,914 1,871 1,899 1,948 3.7 1.3 1.8
estimates marginally higher Power units (mn KWh) 1,784 1,981 1,981 1,784 1,981 1,981 (0.0) 0.0 0.0
Revenues (Rs mn) 19,863 22,669 24,356 20,832 23,310 25,203 4.9 2.8 3.5
EBITDA (Rs mn) 5,395 6,589 6,992 6,200 7,161 7,412 14.9 8.7 6.0
PAT (Rs mn) 4,072 5,058 5,648 4,308 5,214 5,665 5.8 3.1 0.3
Source: HDFC sec Inst Research

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 GMDC: RESULTS REVIEW 2QFY18

Income Statement Balance Sheet

Year ending March (Rs mn) FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E As at March (Rs mn) FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E
Net Revenues 11,787 15,367 20,832 23,310 25,203 SOURCES OF FUNDS
Growth % (16.9) 30.4 35.6 11.9 8.1 Share Capital 636 636 636 636 636
Mining expenses 3,857 4,860 6,605 7,312 8,011 Reserves 36,006 39,119 42,279 46,345 50,863
Royalty and clean energy cess 586 812 1,277 1,389 1,527 Total Shareholders Funds 36,642 39,755 42,915 46,981 51,499
Employee expenses 1,055 1,040 1,301 1,626 2,032 Minority Interest
Other operating expenses 3,292 4,459 5,684 6,067 6,478 Long Term Debt 0 0 0 0 0
Operating profits 2,997 4,196 5,966 6,916 7,154 Short Term Debt 267 114 114 114 114
Operating Profit Margin (%) 25.4 27.3 28.6 29.7 28.4 Total Debt 267 114 114 114 114
Other operating income 140 473 234 245 258 Deferred Taxes 1,829 2,232 2,232 2,232 2,232
EBITDA 3,136 4,668 6,200 7,161 7,412 Long Term Provisions & Others 4,045 4,454 4,454 4,454 4,454
EBITDA % 26.6 30.4 29.8 30.7 29.4 TOTAL SOURCES OF FUNDS 42,783 46,555 49,715 53,781 58,298
EBITDA Growth % (42.3) 48.8 32.8 15.5 3.5 APPLICATION OF FUNDS
Depreciation 1,307 1,513 1,697 1,819 1,940 Net Block 17,907 20,727 20,530 20,212 19,772
EBIT 1,829 3,156 4,503 5,343 5,471 CWIP 916 438 438 438 438
Other Income (including EO Investments 5,704 6,575 6,575 6,575 6,575
1,366 1,317 1,399 1,800 2,290
items) LT Loans and Advances 5,910 8,451 8,451 8,451 8,451
Interest 11 13 0 0 0 Total Non-current Assets 30,437 36,190 35,994 35,675 35,235
PBT 3,185 4,460 5,902 7,143 7,761 Cash & Equivalents 13,342 11,365 14,867 18,890 24,045
Tax 939 1,218 1,593 1,929 2,095 Inventories 435 688 841 870 980
RPAT 2,246 3,242 4,308 5,214 5,665 Debtors 974 1,265 1,017 1,537 1,225
EO (Loss) / Profit (Net Of Tax) - - - - - Other Current Assets 1,517 1,378 1,378 1,378 1,378
APAT 2,246 3,242 4,308 5,214 5,665 Total Current Assets 16,268 14,697 18,104 22,676 27,628
APAT Growth (%) (42.6) 44.4 32.9 21.0 8.7 Creditors 681 974 1,024 1,211 1,206
Adjusted EPS (Rs.) 7.1 10.2 13.5 16.4 17.8 Other Current Liabilities &
3,230 3,359 3,359 3,359 3,359
EPS Growth (%) (42.6) 44.4 32.9 21.0 8.7 Provns
Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research Total Current Liabilities 3,911 4,333 4,383 4,571 4,565
Note: Other operating income not reported separately in FY17. Estimates to be updated Net Current Assets 12,357 10,364 13,721 18,106 23,063
post annual report.
TOTAL APPLICATION OF FUNDS 42,783 46,554 49,715 53,781 58,298
Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

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 GMDC: RESULTS REVIEW 2QFY18

Cash Flow Key Ratios

Year ending March (Rs mn) FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E
Reported PBT 3,185 4,460 5,902 7,143 7,761 PROFITABILITY (%)
Non-operating & EO items (1,366) (1,317) (1,399) (1,800) (2,290) EBITDA Margin 26.6 30.4 29.8 30.7 29.4
Interest expenses 11 13 0 0 0 APAT Margin 19.1 21.1 20.7 22.4 22.5
Depreciation 1,307 1,513 1,697 1,819 1,940 RoE 6.2 8.5 10.4 11.6 11.5
Working Capital Change (87) 16 146 (362) 197 Core RoCE 7.5 9.6 13.2 17.4 21.6
Tax paid (1,585) (703) (1,593) (1,929) (2,095) RoCE 5.4 8.5 10.4 11.6 11.5
OPERATING CASH FLOW ( a ) 1,465 3,981 4,752 4,871 5,513 EFFICIENCY
Capex (1,554) (3,347) (1,500) (1,500) (1,500) Tax Rate (%) 29.5 27.3 27.0 27.0 27.0
Free cash flow (FCF) (89) 634 3,252 3,371 4,013 Asset Turnover (x) 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6
Investments 336 (871) 0 0 0 Inventory (days) 15 13 13 13 13
Non-operating Income 1,366 1,317 1,399 1,800 2,290 Debtors (days) 27 26 20 20 20
INVESTING CASH FLOW ( b ) 147 (2,900) (101) 300 790 Payables (days) 19 20 18 18 18
Debt Issuance/(Repaid) (481) 250 0 0 0 Cash Conversion Cycle (days) 23 20 16 16 16
Interest expenses (11) (13) 0 0 0 Debt/EBITDA (x) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
FCFE 785 2,188 4,651 5,171 6,303 Net D/E (0.36) (0.28) (0.34) (0.40) (0.46)
Share Capital Issuance 0 0 0 0 0 Interest Coverage 283.3 315.6 N/M N/M N/M
Dividend (1,148) (1,148) (1,148) (1,148) (1,148) PER SHARE DATA
FINANCING CASH FLOW ( c ) (1,640) (912) (1,148) (1,148) (1,148) EPS (Rs/sh) 7.1 10.2 13.5 16.4 17.8
NET CASH FLOW (a+b+c) (27) 169 3,503 4,023 5,154 CEPS (Rs/sh) 11.2 15.0 18.9 22.1 23.9
EO Items/Others - - - DPS (Rs/sh) 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
Closing Cash & Equivalents 10,811 13,511 14,867 18,890 24,045 BV (Rs/sh) 115.2 125.0 135.0 147.7 161.9
Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research VALUATION
P/E 23.2 16.0 12.1 10.0 9.2
P/BV 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0
EV/EBITDA 13.6 10.2 6.6 5.1 4.2
OCF/EV (%) 3.6% 10.3% 11.5% 13.1% 16.6%
FCF/EV (%) (0.2%) 1.6% 7.9% 9.1% 12.1%
FCFE/Market Cap (%) 1.5% 4.2% 8.9% 9.9% 12.1%
Dividend Yield (%) 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8
Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research
Note: NM: Not Meaningful

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 GMDC: RESULTS REVIEW 2QFY18

RECOMMENDATION HISTORY
Date CMP Reco Target
GMDC TP
15-Dec-16 97 BUY 125
250
10-Feb-17 116 BUY 140
15-May-17 134 BUY 160
200
8-Jul-17 149 BUY 180
12-Aug-17 133 BUY 190
150 6-Oct-17 149 BUY 190
14-Nov-17 164 BUY 216
100
Rating Definitions
50
BUY : Where the stock is expected to deliver more than 10% returns over the next 12 month period
Feb-17

Sep-17
Nov-16

Nov-17
Jun-17
May-17
Dec-16

Mar-17

Oct-17
Aug-17
Apr-17
Jan-17

Jul-17

NEUTRAL : Where the stock is expected to deliver (-)10% to 10% returns over the next 12 month period
SELL : Where the stock is expected to deliver less than (-)10% returns over the next 12 month period

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 GMDC: RESULTS REVIEW 2QFY18

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 GMDC: RESULTS REVIEW 2QFY18

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