CLIMATE SECURITY 209

STRATEGY OR NECESSITY FOR FINLAND?

Emma Hakala FIIA BRIEFING PAPER 209 December 2016

U L KO P O L I I T T I N E N I N S T I T U U T T I
UTRIKESPOLITISK A INSTITUTET
T H E F I N N I S H I N S T I T U T E O F I N T E R N AT I O N A L A F FA I R S
CLIMATE SECURITY

STRATEGY OR NECESSITY FOR FINLAND?

Emma Hakala FIIA Briefing Paper 209

Visiting Research Fellow (until 30 Nov 2016) December 2016
The Global Security Research Programme
The Finnish Institute of International Affairs

Climate change will have security eects, both directly in the form of natural disasters and
indirectly through societal upheavals. In the international arena, some of these have already been
recognized by political leaders.

In Finland, climate security has not emerged as a major policy issue. This may be due in part to the
fact that the relatively weak ecological impacts predicted for Northern Europe do not amount to a
significant sense of threat.

Yet the eects of climate change will be felt globally and will also pose indirect security threats.
Therefore, Finland has a responsibility and an interest to develop its own climate security
policies and participate in international cooperation in this field, with the aim of managing the
phenomenon.

The securitization of climate change will not be beneficial or eective if it is only seen in terms
of an imposition of traditional security practices onto climate policies. Instead, climate security
discussion and policy should be based on participation and pre-emption rather than on extreme
measures and emergency.

Concrete policies need to be developed to tackle climate security. Finland should contribute to
this eort both at the national and the global level, focusing on areas of its own expertise such
as science and technology, regional and multilateral cooperation, peace-building, or the Arctic
region.

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UTRIKESPOLITISK A INSTITUTET
T H E F I N N I S H I N S T I T U T E O F I N T E R N AT I O N A L A F FA I R S
Introduction climate security is not a viable long-term strategy
for Finland as the security threats and the policies
Climate change is morphing from a dark cloud into to address them become more acute. Finally, it will
a full-blown storm in the firmament of security propose measures to combine input from natural
threats. As scientific research has repeatedly been and social sciences as well as policy-making to for-
able to show the link between the global change in mulate concrete climate security policies.
temperatures and extreme weather events already
taking place, the urgency of preventive measures is
becoming increasingly clear. Conflict links and disaster risks climate
security topics in Finland and elsewhere
Globally, some steps have been taken to acknowl-
edge the emerging security risk. President Barack The eects of climate change are usually presented
Obama has maintained that the issue is the greatest through rather straightforward predictions, such as
long-term threat facing the world, and recently a rise in the global average temperature of about 2
redoubled his eorts to fight against it as the greatest degrees Celsius over the next century. While these
legacy of his presidency. Meanwhile, the US military arguments sound alarming, they may also create a
has already taken climate change into account in its sense that climate change will only be actualized in
risk assessments for some years, and is now calling the distant future. This is a misleading interpreta-
it a threat multiplier. The security implications tion, as any temperature rise will obviously not
were also highlighted in the fifth assessment of the take place overnight but as a progressively creeping
International Panel on Climate Change, and by the development.
UN Environmental Programme (UNEP) with various
issues such as conflict. This false sense of security has been shaken to some
extent by extreme weather events like hurricanes
In Finland, however, climate change has been slow and heatwaves. While these are by no means a new
to emerge as a security issue. It has primarily been occurrence, scientists have traced some of their
seen as a part of global politics and relegated to the increasing frequency to the global temperature
level of EU policy-making. Some specific issues, rise. Extreme weather also appears to increase
such as climate change in the Arctic region, have public awareness of and, consequently, concern
raised questions about potential security threats. Yet about climate change. So far, however, research
in practice, these concerns tend to be undermined has struggled to eectively communicate the link-
by economic interests. age between an extreme weather event and general
climate change.
This paper will consider climate security as a politi-
cal problem from the Finnish point of view. It will Conversely, the range of topics linked to climate
first discuss the ways in which climate change security continues to grow. Extreme weather
has been taken into account as a security issue threatens human lives and health directly, but it
elsewhere and contrast this with the situation in also poses risks to vital infrastructure like energy
Finland. In addition, it will reflect upon the di- networks and water management. A rise in the
culties of linking climate to the security discourse, sea level will concretely threaten the existence of
suggesting that it is not sucient to simply apply small island developing states such as Kiribati and
security language and policies to a new set of prob- the Maldives, but coastal areas all over the world
lems. The paper will go on to argue that inaction on are at risk as well. Human security will deteriorate
as resource scarcities like crop failure and water
shortages will potentially aect over a billion people
1 IPCC (2014). Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and around the world.
Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contri-
bution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge
University Press, Cambridge and New York. 3 Antal, M., & Hukkinen, J. I. (2010). The art of the cognitive
2 UNEP (2011). Livelihood Security: Climate change, conflict war to save the planet. Ecological economics, 69(5), 937
and migration in the Sahel. UNEP, Geneva. 943.

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Such problems will have societal and economic and has been taken into account in early warning
ramifications that may shake socio-political struc- mechanisms, thus integrating it as an element in
tures and give rise to instability. Through this link- disaster risk reduction and conflict prevention.
age, climate change may, in combination with other Such operationalization of the issue may well be
factors, contribute to the creation or continuation more important in terms of impact than high-level
of conflicts. Furthermore, climate impacts will par- declarations.
ticularly aect developing countries with societies
and populations that are vulnerable to environmen- The scale of attention inevitably raises some ques-
tal and political risks. This is likely to accentuate tions about its consequences. In international rela-
inequalities between the Global South and North and tions theory, the linkage of climate to security has
have several destabilizing eects. Increased migra- been studied as securitization, in which security is
tion is predicted to be one consequence, although constructed as an inter-subjective process brought
estimates vary considerably concerning the size and about by the presence of an existential threat. This
direction of the migrant flows. analytical approach enables an examination of the
aims of the actors involved and the outcomes of
As knowledge about the worrying future prospects the process itself. The original securitization theory
accumulates, the climate threat has risen onto the cautioned against the excessive securitization of
international agenda and has increasingly come to new issues, arguing that it may be harmful as it
be seen as a security issue. In the run-up to the Paris moves them beyond the normal democratic proce-
Agreement on climate change, reached in December dure into a sphere of emergency decision-making.
2015, Barack Obama was joined by the likes of Kofi However, other scholars have since challenged this,
Annan in calling for urgent global action precisely proposing that the security sector is inevitably faced
because of the security threats. Climate change with new challenges and therefore needs to adopt
also features strongly in the EUs Global Strategy new practices to come to terms with them. Rather
for Foreign and Security Policy. The UN Security than the security sector taking over climate issues,
Council (UNSC) has discussed the issue several times, this may instead result in a kind of climatization
although it has not been able to reach a consensus of security.
on ways to address the topic. Although the result of
the recent presidential election in the US is likely to This multifarious discussion on climate security is
change the setting in global climate politics to some in contrast with that taking place in Finland, where
extent, the security aspects have gained enough the theme remains marginal. Key documents like
prominence not to be swept under the carpet in the the white papers on Finnish Foreign and Security
new situation. Policy as well as the Security and Defence Policy
both acknowledge climate change as a factor aect-
For its part, the EU may not have featured in the cli- ing the security situation, but do not propose con-
mate security discussion as prominently to outside crete steps to address it. Rather, the issue is seen to
observers as the US, but the issue has gained rel- fall under EU foreign policy or development policy.
evance within its institutions. Among other things,
climate security is featured within the foreign policy
Instrument contributing to Stability and Peace
6 Zwolski, K., & Kaunert, C. (2011). The EU and climate secu-
rity: a case of successful norm entrepreneurship? European
4 IOM (2008). Migration and Climate Change. IOM Migra- security, 20(1), 2143.
tion Research Series 31. Available at http://www.iisd.org/ 7 Buzan, B. et al. (1998). Security. A New Framework for
pdf/2008/migration_climate.pdf. Last accessed 22 Nov 2016. Analysis. Lynne Rienner, Boulder-London.
5 Warren, D. (2015). Possible Roles for the UN Security Coun- 8 Oels, A. (2012). From securitization of climate change to
cil in Addressing Climate Change. Sabin Center for Climate climatization of the security field: comparing three theoret-
Change Law, Columbia Law School; available at https://web. ical perspectives. In Climate change, human security and
law.columbia.edu/sites/default/files/microsites/climate- violent conflict (pp. 185205). Springer Berlin Heidelberg;
change/warren_-_cc_and_international_peace_and_se- Trombetta, M. J. (2008). Environmental security and cli-
curity_-_roles_for_the_un_security_council.pdf. Last mate change: analysing the discourse. Cambridge Review of
accessed 22 Nov 2016. International Affairs, 21(4), 585602.

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Yet Finland has not been active on the topic in the increasingly urgent. This may lead to emergency
EU context either. politics that will not necessarily produce demo-
cratic, let alone the most economical or ecient
This may be due to the fact that in all predictions, solutions to deal with climate threats. Finland could
Finland is foreseen to experience only moderate anticipate this by taking on an active role in formu-
climate change impacts. A slight increase in the fre- lating climate security policies, rather than merely
quency of heavy rainfall or flooding may be unfor- passively adopting them. The logical context for this
tunate, but pales in comparison to the catastrophic is the EU climate security policy, which gives the
scenarios that have urged action in other countries. issue a far wider global relevance.

Yet the relative safety is no excuse for inaction; quite

the contrary, in fact. First, Finland is by no means Securitization of climate change as policy and politics
isolated from the ramifications of the global climate
impacts, be they physical or political. Food crises, In spite of the increasing necessity of discussing the
migration or geopolitics will not stop at the Finnish security implications of climate change, the climate
borders, and therefore need to be taken into account security approach does not provide easy solutions.
in our own security policy. Meanwhile, the EU has As mentioned above, securitization has also been
been diagnosed as seriously vulnerable to climate seen as harmful, even in the original theory itself.
impacts in its near abroad, especially the Mediter- On the other hand, the current debate has perhaps
ranean and Middle East regions. been excessively technical, neglecting the political
and societal consequences that a security perspec-
Second, Finland does have some specific climate- tive could and should illuminate. The key, therefore,
related risks within its borders that have not been is not to arbitrarily impose security onto the climate
adequately considered. The Arctic region is a crucial agenda, but rather to develop the kind of security
case as it is projected to endure an even larger rise practices that help to address the threats.
in temperatures than the rest of the world. The
development will dramatically change the regional Yet in scholarly debate, there has been a tendency
environment but also enable the extraction of new to see climate security as an attempt to reduce the
deposits of natural resources, including oil. As a discourse to just one perspective. This is evident,
result, the Arctic has become a focus of geopoliti- for example, in the debate about the potential of
cal and security interests at an international level. climate change to cause conflicts. Some scholars
While Finland has ocially expressed concern about argue that the climate-conflict nexus is futile as
environmental security in the region, it is also hop- various studies show that climate conditions alone
ing to benefit from the economic opportunities do not explain conflict occurrence; instead, there
brought about by climate change, thus potentially are always societal and political factors at play as
further aggravating the risks. This contradictory well. Others, however, point out that this does
approach appears to be emblematic of Finlands not diminish the relevance of climate as a factor
climate security policy so far. that increases vulnerability. This not only makes it a
threat multiplier, but also suggests that it would be
Third, the security implications of climate change beneficial to take the changing climate into account
form an emerging policy discourse that will heat in peacebuilding operations.
up along with the global temperature. As the cli-
mate impacts become more acute, the measures Meanwhile, predictions about climate migration
to prevent and contain them will need to become have been challenged on the grounds that the

9 Kpyl, J., & Mikkola, H. (2016). The promise of the geoeco- 10 Raleigh, C., Linke, A., & OLoughlin, J. (2014). Extreme
nomic Arctic: a critical analysis. Asia Europe Journal, 14(2), temperatures and violence. Nature Climate Change, 4(2),
203-220; Gritsenko D (2017). Arctic energy: Resource colo- 7677.
nialism revisited. In Kuzemko C., Goldthau A., Keating M. 11 Gemenne, F. et al. (2014). Climate and security: Evidence,
(eds.) Handbook of International Political Economy of Ener- emerging risks, and a new agenda. Climatic Change, 123(1),
gy and Natural Resources. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar. 19.

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 security narrative they produce is based on shielding thus adding to a sense of emergency that may give
the Global North from the threat posed by migrants, rise to hasty and short-sighted policies.
who are simultaneously reduced to a victim status.
Such an approach is not conducive to either solving It is therefore clear that climate security goes well
the migrant crisis or preventing climate change. Yet beyond a mere militarization of climate change. To
at the same time, a complete rejection of a linkage be able to tackle challenges as varied as migration
between climate and migration and its possible or rising sea levels, climate security policies have to
security implications could leave important interac- work through diverse approaches like human secu-
tions unexplored. In the light of current scientific rity, vulnerability and ecological risk. Questions of
assessments, climate refugees do not appear as justice and equality feature strongly in this discus-
apocalyptic narratives, but as one important and sion, particularly because of the uneven division
likely outcome of climate change. of climate impacts between the Global North and
South. Thus, instead of limiting the climate change
The securitization of climate has also been associ- discussion, the security approach has the potential
ated with a shift in the discussion towards adapta- to highlight the cross-sectoral implications of the
tion as opposed to mitigation; that is, attempting interactions involved.
to prepare for coping with climate impacts rather
than preventing them. Adaptation measures usually Indeed, in many cases, such as the tipping points,
aim to strengthen community capacity at the local the security consequences of climate change are so
level, for example by strengthening natural buers obvious that a failure to consider them could have
in vulnerable ecosystems or improving the sustain- the eect of restricting democratic discussion rather
ability of farmland management. Such eorts reflect than vice versa. Rather than reject the security link-
an increasing understanding that climate change age, therefore, it is necessary to recognize its politi-
cannot be fully reversed, making it a high prior- cal implications while acknowledging that these can
ity to minimize its eects. However, an excessive either be useful, such as highlighting the urgency
emphasis on adaptation may indeed run the risk of to act cooperatively to prevent climate change, or
neglecting mitigation, which should still be seen as deleterious, for example by excessively directing
the long-term imperative. the discussion towards military solutions. This also
means that climate security issues need to be con-
This is particularly distressing with regard to the sidered on the basis of each specific case.
issue of tipping points, raised by climate scientists
to describe thresholds beyond which climate change Hence, the focus should be on developing useful
will trigger irreversible impacts on entire ecosys- practices to tackle climate security in dierent
tems, such as the melting of Polar ice caps or the fields, such as humanitarian relief or peacebuilding.
permafrost. In these cases, adaptation is virtually Whether this is seen as a climatization of security
impossible and mitigation is the key. Tipping points or the emergence of a new field within the sector, it
present existential threats and therefore quite obvi- does reflect the need for a new kind of security logic
ously pose security questions. However, they also to deal with new kinds of security threats.
show that climate security has to go beyond point-
ing out threats towards actually formulating policies
to counter them. Yet it is not enough to merely point Closing the gaps between science, security and policy
out that the sea level is rising or coral reefs dying,
The major question is how to translate the recog-
nition of climate change as a security issue into a
coherent and eective policy without resorting
12 Bettini, G. (2013). Climate barbarians at the gate? A critique to interpretations that might do more harm than
of apocalyptic narratives on climate refugees. Geoforum, good. This consideration needs to take place at the
45, 6372. international level, as an integral part of climate
13 Hansen J. (2008). Tipping point: Perspective of a clima- diplomacy, development policy and other relevant
tologist. In Fearn, E. (Ed.) The State of the Wild: A Global fields, but also as a matter of national governance.
Portrait of Wildlife, Wild Lands, and Oceans. Wildlife Con- Finland would benefit from contributing to this
servation Society/Island Press, Washington, D.C., 615. emerging policy discussion at all levels.

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At the moment, climate security appears to be climate threats unilaterally is impossible, which
plagued by a degree of discrepancy caused by the necessitates gaining leverage through the EU level
inability of natural sciences, social sciences and pol- and international cooperation. By actively partici-
icy-makers to thoroughly understand one another. pating in the policy-making, Finland could be in a
This easily leads to simplifications that discourage position to influence climate security policy well
and, in the worst case, misinform policy-making. beyond its relative size, especially in fields where
Better communication between these key fields is it has particular competencies. As a well-known
therefore necessary, such as in the case of conveying actor in peacebuilding, Finland could focus eorts
the relationship of extreme weather events to cli- on promoting the incorporation of climate security
mate change as a whole. Finland, as a country with into conflict-prevention and stability policies. The
solid expertise in climate sciences, could contribute EU has already linked climate security to its peace-
by facilitating interdisciplinary dialogue as well as building operations, which gives it an additional
exchanges with policy-makers. This eort should channel for influence.
also have the aim of formulating a climate security
policy for Finland and informing the discussion at As climate change advances, security threats will
the international level. grow and new ones will emerge. The precise impacts
of these developments are extremely dicult to pre-
Cooperative solutions combining climate science dict, yet ignoring them will hardly make them dis-
with policy are required for ecological phenomena appear. The challenge is to come up with solutions
like the tipping points, but also for societal issues that will, regardless of the problem of incomplete
like migration, food security and water supply. knowledge, be helpful in fighting climate change
However, they also need to be streamlined into and that wont create new problems. As this paper
policies at the sectoral level in order to strengthen has argued, Finland has both a responsibility and an
their functionality to be employed as practices. interest to participate in this work. The sooner this
Throughout all of this, climate security should commitment is undertaken, the better, as climate
focus on participation and pre-emption rather than change wont wait.
extreme measures and emergency.

For one thing, Finland should thoroughly evalu-

ate the ways in which climate change will aect
its security status, not only in terms of extreme
weather and other environmental events, but also The Finnish Institute of International Affairs
with regard to geopolitics, energy supply, inter- tel. +358 9 432 7000
national commitments and other relevant points fax. +358 9 432 7799
of view. The outcomes of these evaluations should www.fiia.fi
be used to develop concrete measures to address
the potential threats. However, even if the security ISBN 978-951-769-513-8
linkage is duly made, it does not mean that all the ISSN 1795-8059
resulting policies have to be limited to the security Language editing: Lynn Nikkanen.
sector. Cover photo: NASA Goddard Photo and Video/Flickr.
Used under the Creative Commons license.
In terms of Finnish national interest, an obvious
and acute climate security case is that of the Arctic. The Finnish Institute of International Affairs is an independent
Finnish policy should aim to consider the climate research institute that produces high-level research to support
security of the region as a coherent whole com- political decision-making and public debate both nationally
prising the environment, geopolitics, economics, and internationally.
justice and other issues. In particular, it should
take into account the potential controversies that All manuscripts are reviewed by at least two other experts
arise when short-term economic gains and long- in the field to ensure the high quality of the publications. In
term security interests end up at odds. Moreover, addition, publications undergo professional language checking
in spite of being a small country, Finland should and editing. The responsibility for the views expressed
take a regional and global perspective. Tackling ultimately rests with the authors.

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