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From: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.

com>
Senttime: 10/13/201511:21:54AM
To: JohnWillams(ofc)<WilliamsJP@state.gov>EugeneFishel<FishelE@state.gov>
Subject: RiftinObamaadministrationoverPutin-POLITICO

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/10/syria-obama-putin-russia-discord-214677

RiftinObamaadministrationoverPutin

Obama,right,andRussia'sPresidentVladimirPutinposeformembersofthemediabeforeabilateralmeetingattheUnitedNationsheadquarters.|AP

ThepresidentsreluctancetorespondassertivelyissignalingU.S.weaknessandindecision,someofficialssay.

VladimirPutinsinterventioninSyriaiscreatingnewriftsinsideanexhaustedandinsomecasesdemoralizedObamanationalsecurityteam,whereofficialspushingforbolderactionseethe
presidentasstubbornlyunwillingtoassumenewriskashenearshisfinalyearinoffice.

CurrentandformerObamaofficialssaythepresidentsreluctancetorespondmoreassertivelyagainstPutinissignalingU.S.weaknessandindecision.Werejustsoreactive,saidonesenior
administrationofficial.Theresjustthistendencytowaitandseewhatstepsotheractorstake.

PutinsdirectmilitaryinterventionfollowingyearsofindirectsupportforSyrianrulerBasharAssadhasbrokenanymomentumObamahadaftersealinghisnucleardealwithIran.
SecretaryofStateJohnKerryhadhopedtofollowthroughontheagreementbyworkingwithIranandRussiatowinapoliticalsettlementinSyria,agoalthatnowseemsfanciful.Addingtothe
frustrationisthehigh-profilefailureofthePentagonplantotrainandequipmoderateSyrianrebels,whichisbeingdownsized.

Theyreontheirbackfeetrightnow,saidaformerseniorObamaforeignpolicyhand.

ObamahasrecentlyapprovedthesupplyofammunitiontoKurdishandArabfightersinnorthernSyria,andthePentagontrainingprogramisbeingrepurposedtoarmtrustedrebel
commandersinthefield.Midlevelofficialsthroughouttheadministrationhavealsobeenaskedtodustoffoldplans,asoneputit,andbrainstormnewpotentialapproachestoSyriaand
Russia.

Butexpectationsarelowthatthoseeffortswillleadanywhere.SourcesfamiliarwithadministrationdeliberationssaidthatObamasWestWinginnercircleservesasabrickwallagainst
dissentingviews.ThepresidentsmostsenioradvisersincludingNationalSecurityAdviserSusanRiceandWhiteHousechiefofstaffDenisMcDonoughreflectthepresidentswariness
ofescalatedU.S.actionrelatedtoSyriaorRussiaand,officialsfear,failtopushObamatoquestionhisowndeeplyrootedassumptions.SusanandDenischannelhim,saysaformer
administrationofficialwhohaswitnessedthedynamic.

Thatdynamicisnotnew.ButPutinsescalationhascombinedtwoofObamasbiggestforeignpolicyheadachesanewlyaggressiveRussiaandSyriascivilwarintoonethrobbing
migraine.

Inseniormeetings,someofObamastopnationalsecurityofficialshavepressedforabolderresponsetoPutinsmuscle-flexinginSyria.TheyincludeKerry,whohasarguedforestablishinga
no-flyzoneinSyria,anoptionObamarecentlysuggestedishalf-baked.

AformerColdWarnucleardeterrenceexpert,DefenseSecretaryAshCarterhasfrettedthattheU.S.isntstandingupfirmlytoPutin'sprovocations.AndCIADirectorJohnBrennanhas
complainedthatPutinisbombingSyrianrebelfighterscovertlybackedbyhisagencywithseemingimpunity.

Theopticsarethatwerebackingoff,saidaformerObamaofficialwhohandledforeignpolicyissues.Itsnotlikewecantexertpressureontheseguys,butweactlikeweretotally
impotent.

ObamasrefusaltotakefirmeractionagainstMoscowhasincreasinglyisolatedseveralofhisadministrationsRussiaspecialists,whoalmostuniformlytakeaharderlinetowardPutinthandoes
thepresidenthimself.TheyincludeVictoriaNuland,assistantsecretaryofstateforEuropeanandEurasianAffairsCelesteWallander,theNationalSecurityCouncilsseniordirectorforRussia
andEurasiaandEvelynFarkas,deputyassistantsecretaryofdefenseforRussia,UkraineandEurasia.FarkasrecentannouncementthatshewillexittheObamaadministrationthisfallraised
eyebrowsamongofficialsawareofherfrustrationthatObamahasntrespondedmoreforcefullytoPutinsannexationofCrimeaandhissupportforpro-Russianseparatistsinthecountrys
east.(Farkashastoldfriendsthatsheisnotresigningoverpolicydisputes.)

ObamadidfaceapublicchallengeintheformofaninterviewonCBS'60MinutesthatairedSunday,inwhichthepresidentgrewvisiblyannoyedasinterviewerSteveKroftpressedhimon
themodestresultsofhiscampaignagainsttheIslamicStateandonwhetherPutinwassuccessfullychallengingyourleadership.
Standinghisground,ObamarepeatedhisargumentthatitwouldbeamistaketooverreacttoPutin,whohesaysisactingoutofweakness,andthattheSyriamorassdefiesthekindofsilver
bulletsolutionsoughtbyhiscritics.

ThecriticsincreasinglyincludeDemocrats.WhiteHouseofficialsaresaidtohavereactedwithirritationwhenHillaryClintonproposedaSyriano-flyzoneearlierthismonth,lendingcredibility
toanideamainlybackedbyRepublicans.Kerryhasalsopushedforano-flyzoneinnorthernSyriaalongTurkey'sborder,whichcouldprovideahumanitarianhavenforrefugeesbutwould
alsocreateadefactochallengetoRussia'sfreedomintheskies.

ThisisnotthefirsttimeObamahasduginagainstnationalsecurityofficialsurgingbolderaction,bothinSyriaandagainstPutinsRussia.

Inlate2012,Clinton,thensecretaryofstate,joinedCIADirectorDavidPetraeusandDefenseSecretaryLeonPanettainpresentingObamawithaplantoarmandtrainamoderateSyrian
rebelforce.Obamavetoedtheidea.(HedidapproveamodestcovertCIAtrainingprogramin2013aftertheSyrianregimeusedchemicalweapons,andlastyearheapprovedthe$500
millionPentagontrainingprogramthatisbeingdownsizedafterasputteringstart.)

Thepatternrepeatedearlierthisyear,whenaconsensusemergedamongObamastopnationalsecurityadvisers,includingKerryandthen-DefenseSecretaryChuckHagel,thattheU.S.
shouldsupplylethalmilitaryaidtoUkraine,includingshoulder-firedJavelinanti-tankmissiles.DuringhisFebruaryconfirmationhearing,Cartersaidthathe,too,wasverymuchinclinedto
provideheavierweaponstoUkraine.Again,Obamaknockeddowntheidea,worryingthatPutinwouldsimplyfurtherescalateinresponse.

SomeofficialsarguedthatObamashouldkeepthepossibilityofsupplyingoflethalweaponsasacardtoplayagainstPutinintheeventtheRussiantooknewlyprovocativestepswhichhe
nowhasinSyria.

ButtherearenosignsObamaisseriouslyreconsideringtheidea.

ObamastrashtalkInasignofthecomplexitiestheObamateamfaces,fewofficialscanbeeasilyplacedinaneathawkordovebox.Kerry,forinstance,haslongfavoredano-flyzonein
Syria.Buthefrustratestheadministration'sRussiahawks,whoprefertoisolatePutin,withhisreliablebeliefinthebenefitsofcontinueddialoguewithMoscow.

ThatreflectsaviewthatpragmaticengagementwithMoscowisthebestwaytoaccomplishU.S.aims.Thattheorymayhavereceivedalittle-noticedboostearlierthismonth.Whilecritics
pointoutthatPutinbeganairstrikestwodaysafterhissit-downwithObamaattheUnitedNations,therewasunexpectedgoodnewsfromUkrainesoonafter,whenRussian-backedrebels
agreedtopostponedisputedelectionsthatthreatenedafragiletruce.TheelectionshadbeenakeydiscussionpointbetweenObamaandPutininNewYork.Evenso,theRussiahawksbelieve
thatPutinandKerry'sRussiancounterpart,SergeiLavrov,generallystringalongandmisleadtheU.S.

Ontheflipside,manyPentagonofficialswanttheU.S.tomoreactivelycounterRussianambitionsinEuropewhiledoubtingtheefficacyofproposalstotakemoreactioninSyria.Martin
Dempsey,therecentlyretiredchairmanofthejointchiefsofstaff,arguedthattheU.S.shouldconsidersendinglethalaidtoKiev.ButDempseywasavociferousopponentofaSyriano-fly
zone,whichhecalledriskyandsaidcouldcost$1billionpermonthatatimeofPentagonbudgetcuts.

AnewpaperpublishedbytheArmyWarCollegeconcludesthattheRussianinterventioninSyriaisnotnecessarilyamajorsetbackforU.S.policy.

IfeelthatwehaveamuchmoredeeplyheldconcernaboutwhatisgoingoninUkrainethanwedoaboutpullingarabbitoutofahatinSyria,saidthepaper'sauthor,W.AndrewTerrill,a
professorattheWarCollegesStrategicStudiesInstituteandaretiredArmylieutenantcolonel.TheLebanesecivilwarlasted14yearsandwasverydifficulttostop.

OthermilitaryofficialsbelievetheU.S.canstanduptoPutinwithoutgettingentangledinSyriabycontestingRussianaggressioninothertheaters,fromtheArctictoEasternEuropeandthe
Baltics,whereRussiahassteppedupprovocativeoverflightschallengingforeignairspace.InaspeechlastweekattheAtlanticCouncil,aWashingtonthinktank,NATOstopnavalcommander
proposedastrongerU.S.responsetotherecentdeploymentofsixRussianKilo-classattacksubmarinestotheBlackSea.

Thecommander,U.S.NavyAdm.MarkFerguson,calledforamoreactivealliedresponse,includingidentifyingnewbaseswheretheU.S.NavysP-8Poseidonanti-submarineaircraftcould
operate,sayingthatyoudonotgetbettersittinginportdoingsyntheticexercises.

It'sunclearwhetherObamaisentertainingthatidea.ButevenofficialswhogrumblethatRiceandMcDonoughdiscouragedissentingviewssometimesbyinvokingexaggerated,straw-man
versionsofrecommendationsconcedethatthereisplentyofdiscussioninnationalsecuritymeetingsattheWhiteHouse.Justlittleaction.

Asoneoftheformerofficialsputit:Thisisdrivenbyoneman,andonemanonly,anditisBarackObama.

BryanBendercontributedtothisreport.

Authors:

ShowComments
From: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 10/08/201501:49:19AM
To: JohnWillams(ofc)<WilliamsJP@state.gov>EugeneFishel<FishelE@state.gov>
BCc: acrotto@us-state.osis.gov
GoodStufffromKotkin:hisreviewofMeyersbook(Ultimately,Mr.Putin'stacticalcoupscannotconcealhisfailuretoreviveRussiaasagenuine
Subject:
greatpower)

#3
WallStreetJournal
October6,2015
Russia'sSnarlingStuntman
Russiaisdeclining,withtalentandcapitalinfullflight.Yetdespitethiswretchedhand,VladimirPutinistrumpingthe
West.
BySTEPHENKOTKIN
Mr.Kotkin,authorof"Stalin,"isaPrincetonprofessorandaHooverInstitutionfellowatStanford.

THENEWTSAR
ByStevenLeeMyers
Knopf,572pages,$32.50

Russia'sdeclinecontinues.Beneaththebluster,elitesarejittery.Thepopulaceispridefulbutmiserable.Talent-notjust
capital-isinfullflight.Theregimehasnostrategybeyonditsownsurvival,andVladimirPutinhasbecomeasnarling
stuntmanwithasurgicallyenhancedappearanceandapropaganda-enhancedapprovalrating.

Yetdespitethiswretchedhand,Russia'sautocrathasbeentrumpingtheWest.Justlastweek,afterPresidentObama
gaveaspeechattheUnitedNations,Mr.PutinbeganbombingthepoliticalopponentsoftheSyrianbutcherBasharal-
Assadinthenameofcombating"terrorism."

StevenLeeMyers's"TheNewTsar:TheRiseandReignofVladimirPutin"providesacomprehensivelookatRussia's
would-besaviorandAmerica'snemesis.Muchoftheaccountisfamiliar:thePutinfamily'sshabbycommunalapartment
inpost-WorldWarIILeningradyoungVladimirasanindifferentstudentandcourtyardruffianthesuddendiscipline
instilledbymartialartshisobsessionwiththepopularfilmseries"ShieldandSword"(1968),whichinspiredadreamto
jointheKGB.ThetapontheshoulderthatfulfilledthatdreamcamewhilehewasalawstudentatLeningradState
University.Nextupwasspyschool,acareerpolicingthoughtinLeningradandthenaforeignassignmentinanEast
Germanbackwater.

Mr.Myers,whospentsevenyearsasaNewYorkTimescorrespondentinMoscow,digsthroughanimpressivelywide
rangeofmaterials,gatheringrevealingquotesfromlifelongloyalistsaswellasinsiderswhobrokeranks.Unlikesomany
otherauthorswhotakeonMr.Putin,herefusestocherrypickanecdotesorindulgeindippyconspiracytheories.His
reliable,wealth-of-detailsapproachcapturesthezigsandzagsofMr.Putin'sevolution.

TheimplosionoftheEasternBlocandthenoftheSovietUnionin1989-91meantanewlifeforMr.Putinastopdeputyto
thedemocraticallyelectedmayorofSt.Petersburg,AnatolySobchak.TheKGBoperativetriedtomakeRussia'sversion
ofdemocracywork:WhenrivalsdeployeddirtytrickstofoilSobchak'sre-electioncampaigninthemid-1990s,Mr.Putin
indignantlywrotetoMoscowdemandingthattheKremlintake"decisiveactiontoendtheuseofthelaw-enforcement
authoritiesforpoliticalpurposes."

Hisnaiveappealfellflat,butconnectionssooncatapultedhimintothepresidentialadministrationinMoscow,andin1998
apromotionbyBorisYeltsinmadeMr.PutintheheadoftheKGB'ssuccessoragency.Hisascenttothepresidencyisits
ownsordidtale.

PresidentPutin'sfirstterm(2000-04)brimmedwithhopeandeconomicgrowth.Whenandwhyheabandonedhisefforts
atstructuralreformremainsamatterofcontroversy.

Mr.MyersapprovinglyquotesaletterwrittenbytheimprisonedoilmagnateMikhailKhodorkovskyin2004,inwhichhe
saidthatMr.Putin"isprobablyneitheraliberalnorademocrat,butheisstillmoreliberalanddemocraticthan70percent
ofourcountry'spopulation."ButthisassertionremainsunsubstantiatedbecauseMr.Myers'sbiographydoesn'texamine
Russiansociety.TheauthoralsoseemstolendsomesupporttothepopularnarrativewithinRussiaof"Western
betrayal,"pointingoutthatMr.PutinheldfourmeetingswithPresidentGeorgeW.Bushin2001,andallhegotwasa
week'snoticewhenWashingtonunilaterallyabrogatedtheAnti-BallisticMissileTreaty.Butwhatoftheexperienceof
rebuildingstatepowerinshapingMr.Putin'struculence?WhatoftheperennialconundrumofconfrontingtheWest's
abidingsuperiorityandRussia'sweakness?
FewpeoplewhohavehadabrushwithMr.Putincomeoffwellhere.Afterhisre-electiontoasecondtermin2004,the
investorBillBrowdertoldajournalistthat"peoplewillforgetinsixmonthsthatKhodorkovskyisstillsittinginjail"-andhe
andotherscontinuedtoinvestinthecountry.Similarly,JohnBrowne,thenCEOofBP,ishearddismissingthePutin
regime'sannihilationofMr.Khodorkovsky'sprivateoilcompanyYukoswiththecomment:"Nocountryhascomesofarin
suchashortspaceoftime."(BPlaterpartneredwithRosneft,thecompanythatstoleYukos.)

Mr.MyerslaysbarethehashofGeorgeW.Bush'slook-into-Mr.Putin's-soulRussiapolicy,whichculminatedinthe
consolidationofthepartitionofGeorgiain2008.HethenrecountstheblowupofPresidentBarackObama'sresetRussia
policy.

TheauthorremindsusthatSecretaryofStateHillaryClintonwarnedinDecember2012thatMr.Putin'sproposed
"EurasianUnion"soughttosubjugateitsformerpossessionsandaddedthat"wearetryingtofigureouteffectivewaysto
slowdownorpreventit."Mr.Putinsabotageditforherin2014,whenheseizedCrimeafromUkraine,consolidatinga
strongpro-EuropemajorityinKievandsendingchillsthroughthecapitalsofBelarusandKazakhstan.ButUkraineisnow
dismembered.

Countlesssecondarycharactersareintroducedknowledgeablyhere,butnonecometofull-bloodedlife.Eventhe
protagonistcanseemelusive.ContraMr.Myers,Mr.Putinisnota"tsar."Theambiguityofanysuccessionispotentially
themostdebilitatingaspectofhisrule,asitisforallauthoritarianregimes.Still,Mr.Myers'sportrait-withmaliceasMr.
Putin'sdefiningattribute-isdevastatingpreciselybecauseitisjudiciouslydrawn.

Ultimately,Mr.Putin'stacticalcoupscannotconcealhisfailuretoreviveRussiaasagenuinegreatpower.Atonepoint,
Mr.Myersshows,Mr.Putinhimselfknewbetter."Itseemstoallofus-andIwilladmit,tomesometimesaswell-thatby
imposingstrictorderwithanironfist,wewillallbegintolivebetter,morecomfortably,moresecurely,"Mr.Putinobserved
in2002."Inactualfactthatcomfortwouldveryquicklypassbecausethatironfistwouldveryquicklybegintostrangleus."
From: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 10/08/201501:49:19AM
To: JohnWillams(ofc)<WilliamsJP@state.gov>EugeneFishel<FishelE@state.gov>
BCc: acrotto@us-state.osis.gov
GoodStufffromKotkin:hisreviewofMeyersbook(Ultimately,Mr.Putin'stacticalcoupscannotconcealhisfailuretoreviveRussiaasagenuine
Subject:
greatpower)

#3
WallStreetJournal
October6,2015
Russia'sSnarlingStuntman
Russiaisdeclining,withtalentandcapitalinfullflight.Yetdespitethiswretchedhand,VladimirPutinistrumpingthe
West.
BySTEPHENKOTKIN
Mr.Kotkin,authorof"Stalin,"isaPrincetonprofessorandaHooverInstitutionfellowatStanford.

THENEWTSAR
ByStevenLeeMyers
Knopf,572pages,$32.50

Russia'sdeclinecontinues.Beneaththebluster,elitesarejittery.Thepopulaceispridefulbutmiserable.Talent-notjust
capital-isinfullflight.Theregimehasnostrategybeyonditsownsurvival,andVladimirPutinhasbecomeasnarling
stuntmanwithasurgicallyenhancedappearanceandapropaganda-enhancedapprovalrating.

Yetdespitethiswretchedhand,Russia'sautocrathasbeentrumpingtheWest.Justlastweek,afterPresidentObama
gaveaspeechattheUnitedNations,Mr.PutinbeganbombingthepoliticalopponentsoftheSyrianbutcherBasharal-
Assadinthenameofcombating"terrorism."

StevenLeeMyers's"TheNewTsar:TheRiseandReignofVladimirPutin"providesacomprehensivelookatRussia's
would-besaviorandAmerica'snemesis.Muchoftheaccountisfamiliar:thePutinfamily'sshabbycommunalapartment
inpost-WorldWarIILeningradyoungVladimirasanindifferentstudentandcourtyardruffianthesuddendiscipline
instilledbymartialartshisobsessionwiththepopularfilmseries"ShieldandSword"(1968),whichinspiredadreamto
jointheKGB.ThetapontheshoulderthatfulfilledthatdreamcamewhilehewasalawstudentatLeningradState
University.Nextupwasspyschool,acareerpolicingthoughtinLeningradandthenaforeignassignmentinanEast
Germanbackwater.

Mr.Myers,whospentsevenyearsasaNewYorkTimescorrespondentinMoscow,digsthroughanimpressivelywide
rangeofmaterials,gatheringrevealingquotesfromlifelongloyalistsaswellasinsiderswhobrokeranks.Unlikesomany
otherauthorswhotakeonMr.Putin,herefusestocherrypickanecdotesorindulgeindippyconspiracytheories.His
reliable,wealth-of-detailsapproachcapturesthezigsandzagsofMr.Putin'sevolution.

TheimplosionoftheEasternBlocandthenoftheSovietUnionin1989-91meantanewlifeforMr.Putinastopdeputyto
thedemocraticallyelectedmayorofSt.Petersburg,AnatolySobchak.TheKGBoperativetriedtomakeRussia'sversion
ofdemocracywork:WhenrivalsdeployeddirtytrickstofoilSobchak'sre-electioncampaigninthemid-1990s,Mr.Putin
indignantlywrotetoMoscowdemandingthattheKremlintake"decisiveactiontoendtheuseofthelaw-enforcement
authoritiesforpoliticalpurposes."

Hisnaiveappealfellflat,butconnectionssooncatapultedhimintothepresidentialadministrationinMoscow,andin1998
apromotionbyBorisYeltsinmadeMr.PutintheheadoftheKGB'ssuccessoragency.Hisascenttothepresidencyisits
ownsordidtale.

PresidentPutin'sfirstterm(2000-04)brimmedwithhopeandeconomicgrowth.Whenandwhyheabandonedhisefforts
atstructuralreformremainsamatterofcontroversy.

Mr.MyersapprovinglyquotesaletterwrittenbytheimprisonedoilmagnateMikhailKhodorkovskyin2004,inwhichhe
saidthatMr.Putin"isprobablyneitheraliberalnorademocrat,butheisstillmoreliberalanddemocraticthan70percent
ofourcountry'spopulation."ButthisassertionremainsunsubstantiatedbecauseMr.Myers'sbiographydoesn'texamine
Russiansociety.TheauthoralsoseemstolendsomesupporttothepopularnarrativewithinRussiaof"Western
betrayal,"pointingoutthatMr.PutinheldfourmeetingswithPresidentGeorgeW.Bushin2001,andallhegotwasa
week'snoticewhenWashingtonunilaterallyabrogatedtheAnti-BallisticMissileTreaty.Butwhatoftheexperienceof
rebuildingstatepowerinshapingMr.Putin'struculence?WhatoftheperennialconundrumofconfrontingtheWest's
abidingsuperiorityandRussia'sweakness?
FewpeoplewhohavehadabrushwithMr.Putincomeoffwellhere.Afterhisre-electiontoasecondtermin2004,the
investorBillBrowdertoldajournalistthat"peoplewillforgetinsixmonthsthatKhodorkovskyisstillsittinginjail"-andhe
andotherscontinuedtoinvestinthecountry.Similarly,JohnBrowne,thenCEOofBP,ishearddismissingthePutin
regime'sannihilationofMr.Khodorkovsky'sprivateoilcompanyYukoswiththecomment:"Nocountryhascomesofarin
suchashortspaceoftime."(BPlaterpartneredwithRosneft,thecompanythatstoleYukos.)

Mr.MyerslaysbarethehashofGeorgeW.Bush'slook-into-Mr.Putin's-soulRussiapolicy,whichculminatedinthe
consolidationofthepartitionofGeorgiain2008.HethenrecountstheblowupofPresidentBarackObama'sresetRussia
policy.

TheauthorremindsusthatSecretaryofStateHillaryClintonwarnedinDecember2012thatMr.Putin'sproposed
"EurasianUnion"soughttosubjugateitsformerpossessionsandaddedthat"wearetryingtofigureouteffectivewaysto
slowdownorpreventit."Mr.Putinsabotageditforherin2014,whenheseizedCrimeafromUkraine,consolidatinga
strongpro-EuropemajorityinKievandsendingchillsthroughthecapitalsofBelarusandKazakhstan.ButUkraineisnow
dismembered.

Countlesssecondarycharactersareintroducedknowledgeablyhere,butnonecometofull-bloodedlife.Eventhe
protagonistcanseemelusive.ContraMr.Myers,Mr.Putinisnota"tsar."Theambiguityofanysuccessionispotentially
themostdebilitatingaspectofhisrule,asitisforallauthoritarianregimes.Still,Mr.Myers'sportrait-withmaliceasMr.
Putin'sdefiningattribute-isdevastatingpreciselybecauseitisjudiciouslydrawn.

Ultimately,Mr.Putin'stacticalcoupscannotconcealhisfailuretoreviveRussiaasagenuinegreatpower.Atonepoint,
Mr.Myersshows,Mr.Putinhimselfknewbetter."Itseemstoallofus-andIwilladmit,tomesometimesaswell-thatby
imposingstrictorderwithanironfist,wewillallbegintolivebetter,morecomfortably,moresecurely,"Mr.Putinobserved
in2002."Inactualfactthatcomfortwouldveryquicklypassbecausethatironfistwouldveryquicklybegintostrangleus."
From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 10/01/201508:35:47AM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
Subject: FW:BBCCommentary:HowPutinBlindsidedtheUSOverSyria

From:GlenHoward[mailto:howard@jamestown.org]
Sent:Wednesday,September30,20155:41PM
To:Prof.S.FredStarrSEndersWimbushJohnBDunlopPavelBaevPavelFelgenhauerJacobKippTimothyThomasMatthewCzekajClintonSmullyanJrRobSpring
WillemdeVogelBillRichardsPeterWoodPeterMattisTemuriYakobashviliDanielPFataalan.merbaum@lmco.comCharlesLannanAhmedHashimOmarHumadiZuhair
HumadiHamzaShareefAdelBashqawiMichaelE.KavoukjianktmcfarlandWladimirvanWilgenburg
Subject:BBCCommentary:HowPutinBlindsidedtheUSOverSyria

Greatcommentary.NotesaftermakingadealonMondayandagreeingtocoordinatewithTheUS,Moscowlaunchesairstrikeswithlittlenotice.Tomakemattersworse,
insteadofaphonecallaRussian3stargeneraldrivestoUSembassyinBaghdad,knocksonthedoorandsaysthebombingstartsin1hourandalertyourguys.

Glen

US&Canada

HowPutinblindsidedtheUSoverSyria

3hoursago
JonSopelNorthAmericaeditor

FromthesectionUS&Canada

57comments

ImagecopyrightAPImagecaptionTheUNhandshakemaskedaraftofdifferences

ThereshouldbenosurprisesaboutwhattheRussianshavedone.
TheyhaveconsistentlymadecleartheirsupportforPresidentAssad.ItwashardlyagreatsecretthattheyhadmovedmilitaryassetsintoSyria-and
theRussianpilotshadn'tflowntheirfighteraircraftovertotheEasternMediterraneantoearnsomeextraairmiles.

PresidentVladimirPutinhadameetingwithPresidentBarackObamaonMondaynighttoexplainwhatRussia'splanwas-andalthoughtherewere
profounddifferences,USofficialssaidtheyunderstoodbetterwhatRussia'sintentionswere.

Andyet.

Isn'ttheresomethingtotallyjaw-dropping,gob-smacking,eyebrow-arching,eartwitchinglyextraordinary-andnottomention,casual-abouttheway
theAmericanslearntaboutRussianplans?

ItbeganwithaphonecallfromaRussiandiplomattohiscounterpartinBaghdadtosay"we'vegotsomethinginterestingtotellyou".

Thenathree-starRussiangeneralleavestheRussianembassycompoundandknocksonthedooroftheAmericanone,andaskstoseetheUSmilitary
attache.

HetellstheAmericanmilitarymanthatbombingstartsinanhour,soyou'dbettergetoutofSyrianairspacenowandmoveanyassetsyouhaveoffthe
ground.And60minuteslater,thebombingstarted.

Wow.TosaytheAmericanswereblindsidedbythisunorthodoxlineofcommunicationistoputitmildly.Havinghadtheir"cleartheair"meetingon
Mondaynighttherewasananticipationthatthoughtheremightbebigpolicydifferences,therewouldbeadegreeofco-ordinationandopenness.

Justconsiderthis-therisksofaUSfighterplanerunningintoaRussianonewithunimaginableconsequenceshasjustratchetedup.Aretheygoingto
takeitonturnstobombtargets?Onedayit'stheAmericansandtheirallies,thenextdayit'stheRussians.Youdon'tneedtobeamilitaryhistorianto
knowthatthatisnotgoingtofly(sotospeak).

Andthatisbeforewegettothestrategicobjectives.

ImagecopyrightAPImagecaptionMoscowsaiditwasstrikingIslamicStatepositionsbuttheUSbelievestheywereattackingoppositiongroups

AretheRussianstryingtodestroyIS/Isis/Isil/DaeshoraretheytryingtopropupPresidentAssad?TheAmericansseethetwoasverydifferent,the
Russianslessso.

Ontheevidenceofoneday'sbombingitlookstobeverymuchthelatter.ThetargetofRussianordnancehasbeeninplaceswhereIShasno
presence.

Inotherwords,otherrebelgroups-anyrebelgroups-opposedtoPresidentAssadarebeingtargeted.Andthatraisesanotherhugequestion.Whatif
theRussiansstarthittingUSbackedandarmedrebelgroups?Thatisnotgoingtoendwell.

AndwhoknowshowmanyUSspecialforcestheremightbeonthegroundhelpingthoserebelgroups?Whatiftheyfindthemselvescomingunderfire
-dotheycallinUScloseairsupporttoseeofftheirRussianattackers?

TheAmericansclearlycameawaywiththeunderstandingaftertheMondaynighttte-a-ttethattheyhadanagreementononething-thatISneeded
tobeattackedanddestroyed,anddisagreementonanother-theroleofPresidentAssadinSyria'sfuturepoliticalsettlement.
ImagecopyrightReutersImagecaptionJohnKerryandSergeyLavrovdiscussedtheconflictonWednesday

Well-anditisdayoneofRussianaction-itlookslikeRussiaisnotdistinguishingbetweendifferentrebelgroups.IfthesegroupsareagainstAssad,
theycouldfindthemselvesinthecrosshairsoftheRussianAirForce.

AshtonCarter,theUSdefencesecretary,saysthereisadangerthatRussiaispouringgasolineontothefire.Healsoinsiststherehavebeennobig
surprisesinwhattheRussianshavedonetoday.Hmm.Idon'tthinktheAmericanshadthewaytodayunfoldedintheirplaybook.

OnceagainVladimirPutinhasseeminglyoutmanoeuvredtheWhiteHouse.AseniorUSdiplomatsaidtometheotherdaythatwhenObamaleaves
officehewillberoundlyapplaudedforthewayhenegotiatedandultimatelydeliveredadealonIran,butwillbejustifiablyvilifiedforthevacillationand
vaguenessoverhisSyriapolicy.

Putin,ontheotherhand,hasbeentotallyconsistent.HewantstoprotectRussia'sonlydeepwaterportontheEasternMediterraneanandwilldowhat
ittakestoprotectit.

SonowitlooksliketheUSadministrationhasachoicetomake-isitgoingtoriskconfrontationwiththeRussians,orisitgoingtoacceptthatAssad
ain'tgoinganywhereandisthereforthelonghaul?Noteasychoices.

ThekeyargumentofObama'sspeechattheUNonMondaywas"Chooseco-operationoverconflict.Thatisnotweakness,thatisstrength."Doesn't
seemtobeVladimir'smodusoperandi.

ThealreadyintractableproblemofSyriahasjustbecomeawholelotmorecomplex-andawholelotmoredangerous.
From: Williams,JohnP<WilliamsJP@state.gov>
Senttime: 10/08/201505:40:04AM
To: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>Fishel,Eugene<FishelE@state.gov>
RE:GoodStufffromKotkin:hisreviewofMeyersbook(Ultimately,Mr.Putin'stacticalcoupscannotconcealhisfailuretoreviveRussiaasa
Subject:
genuinegreatpower)

ThanksreftoDawisha?:UnlikesomanyotherauthorswhotakeonMr.Putin,herefusestocherrypickanecdotesor
indulgeindippyconspiracytheories.Hisreliable,wealth-of-detailsapproachcapturesthezigsandzagsofMr.Putin's
evolution.

From:RobertOtto[mailto:robertotto25@gmail.com]
Sent:Thursday,October08,20154:49AM
To:Williams,JohnPFishel,Eugene
Subject:GoodStufffromKotkin:hisreviewofMeyersbook(Ultimately,Mr.Putin'stacticalcoupscannotconcealhisfailuretorevive
Russiaasagenuinegreatpower)

#3
WallStreetJournal
October6,2015
Russia'sSnarlingStuntman
Russiaisdeclining,withtalentandcapitalinfullflight.Yetdespitethiswretchedhand,VladimirPutinistrumpingthe
West.
BySTEPHENKOTKIN
Mr.Kotkin,authorof"Stalin,"isaPrincetonprofessorandaHooverInstitutionfellowatStanford.

THENEWTSAR
ByStevenLeeMyers
Knopf,572pages,$32.50

Russia'sdeclinecontinues.Beneaththebluster,elitesarejittery.Thepopulaceispridefulbutmiserable.Talent-notjust
capital-isinfullflight.Theregimehasnostrategybeyonditsownsurvival,andVladimirPutinhasbecomeasnarling
stuntmanwithasurgicallyenhancedappearanceandapropaganda-enhancedapprovalrating.

Yetdespitethiswretchedhand,Russia'sautocrathasbeentrumpingtheWest.Justlastweek,afterPresidentObama
gaveaspeechattheUnitedNations,Mr.PutinbeganbombingthepoliticalopponentsoftheSyrianbutcherBasharal-
Assadinthenameofcombating"terrorism."

StevenLeeMyers's"TheNewTsar:TheRiseandReignofVladimirPutin"providesacomprehensivelookatRussia's
would-besaviorandAmerica'snemesis.Muchoftheaccountisfamiliar:thePutinfamily'sshabbycommunalapartment
inpost-WorldWarIILeningradyoungVladimirasanindifferentstudentandcourtyardruffianthesuddendiscipline
instilledbymartialartshisobsessionwiththepopularfilmseries"ShieldandSword"(1968),whichinspiredadreamto
jointheKGB.ThetapontheshoulderthatfulfilledthatdreamcamewhilehewasalawstudentatLeningradState
University.Nextupwasspyschool,acareerpolicingthoughtinLeningradandthenaforeignassignmentinanEast
Germanbackwater.

Mr.Myers,whospentsevenyearsasaNewYorkTimescorrespondentinMoscow,digsthroughanimpressivelywide
rangeofmaterials,gatheringrevealingquotesfromlifelongloyalistsaswellasinsiderswhobrokeranks.Unlikesomany
otherauthorswhotakeonMr.Putin,herefusestocherrypickanecdotesorindulgeindippyconspiracytheories.His
reliable,wealth-of-detailsapproachcapturesthezigsandzagsofMr.Putin'sevolution.

TheimplosionoftheEasternBlocandthenoftheSovietUnionin1989-91meantanewlifeforMr.Putinastopdeputyto
thedemocraticallyelectedmayorofSt.Petersburg,AnatolySobchak.TheKGBoperativetriedtomakeRussia'sversion
ofdemocracywork:WhenrivalsdeployeddirtytrickstofoilSobchak'sre-electioncampaigninthemid-1990s,Mr.Putin
indignantlywrotetoMoscowdemandingthattheKremlintake"decisiveactiontoendtheuseofthelaw-enforcement
authoritiesforpoliticalpurposes."

Hisnaiveappealfellflat,butconnectionssooncatapultedhimintothepresidentialadministrationinMoscow,andin1998
apromotionbyBorisYeltsinmadeMr.PutintheheadoftheKGB'ssuccessoragency.Hisascenttothepresidencyisits
ownsordidtale.

PresidentPutin'sfirstterm(2000-04)brimmedwithhopeandeconomicgrowth.Whenandwhyheabandonedhisefforts
atstructuralreformremainsamatterofcontroversy.

Mr.MyersapprovinglyquotesaletterwrittenbytheimprisonedoilmagnateMikhailKhodorkovskyin2004,inwhichhe
saidthatMr.Putin"isprobablyneitheraliberalnorademocrat,butheisstillmoreliberalanddemocraticthan70percent
ofourcountry'spopulation."ButthisassertionremainsunsubstantiatedbecauseMr.Myers'sbiographydoesn'texamine
Russiansociety.TheauthoralsoseemstolendsomesupporttothepopularnarrativewithinRussiaof"Western
betrayal,"pointingoutthatMr.PutinheldfourmeetingswithPresidentGeorgeW.Bushin2001,andallhegotwasa
week'snoticewhenWashingtonunilaterallyabrogatedtheAnti-BallisticMissileTreaty.Butwhatoftheexperienceof
rebuildingstatepowerinshapingMr.Putin'struculence?WhatoftheperennialconundrumofconfrontingtheWest's
abidingsuperiorityandRussia'sweakness?

FewpeoplewhohavehadabrushwithMr.Putincomeoffwellhere.Afterhisre-electiontoasecondtermin2004,the
investorBillBrowdertoldajournalistthat"peoplewillforgetinsixmonthsthatKhodorkovskyisstillsittinginjail"-andhe
andotherscontinuedtoinvestinthecountry.Similarly,JohnBrowne,thenCEOofBP,ishearddismissingthePutin
regime'sannihilationofMr.Khodorkovsky'sprivateoilcompanyYukoswiththecomment:"Nocountryhascomesofarin
suchashortspaceoftime."(BPlaterpartneredwithRosneft,thecompanythatstoleYukos.)

Mr.MyerslaysbarethehashofGeorgeW.Bush'slook-into-Mr.Putin's-soulRussiapolicy,whichculminatedinthe
consolidationofthepartitionofGeorgiain2008.HethenrecountstheblowupofPresidentBarackObama'sresetRussia
policy.

TheauthorremindsusthatSecretaryofStateHillaryClintonwarnedinDecember2012thatMr.Putin'sproposed
"EurasianUnion"soughttosubjugateitsformerpossessionsandaddedthat"wearetryingtofigureouteffectivewaysto
slowdownorpreventit."Mr.Putinsabotageditforherin2014,whenheseizedCrimeafromUkraine,consolidatinga
strongpro-EuropemajorityinKievandsendingchillsthroughthecapitalsofBelarusandKazakhstan.ButUkraineisnow
dismembered.

Countlesssecondarycharactersareintroducedknowledgeablyhere,butnonecometofull-bloodedlife.Eventhe
protagonistcanseemelusive.ContraMr.Myers,Mr.Putinisnota"tsar."Theambiguityofanysuccessionispotentially
themostdebilitatingaspectofhisrule,asitisforallauthoritarianregimes.Still,Mr.Myers'sportrait-withmaliceasMr.
Putin'sdefiningattribute-isdevastatingpreciselybecauseitisjudiciouslydrawn.

Ultimately,Mr.Putin'stacticalcoupscannotconcealhisfailuretoreviveRussiaasagenuinegreatpower.Atonepoint,
Mr.Myersshows,Mr.Putinhimselfknewbetter."Itseemstoallofus-andIwilladmit,tomesometimesaswell-thatby
imposingstrictorderwithanironfist,wewillallbegintolivebetter,morecomfortably,moresecurely,"Mr.Putinobserved
in2002."Inactualfactthatcomfortwouldveryquicklypassbecausethatironfistwouldveryquicklybegintostrangleus."
From: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 10/08/201501:50:50AM
To: WayneAllensworth<swallen@1scom.net>ChrisBort<chris.bort@gmail.com>
GoodStufffromKotkin:ReviewofMyers(Ultimately,Mr.Putin'stacticalcoupscannotconcealhisfailuretoreviveRussiaasagenuinegreat
Subject:
power)

#3
WallStreetJournal
October6,2015
Russia'sSnarlingStuntman
Russiaisdeclining,withtalentandcapitalinfullflight.Yetdespitethiswretchedhand,VladimirPutinistrumpingthe
West.
BySTEPHENKOTKIN
Mr.Kotkin,authorof"Stalin,"isaPrincetonprofessorandaHooverInstitutionfellowatStanford.

THENEWTSAR
ByStevenLeeMyers
Knopf,572pages,$32.50

Russia'sdeclinecontinues.Beneaththebluster,elitesarejittery.Thepopulaceispridefulbutmiserable.Talent-notjust
capital-isinfullflight.Theregimehasnostrategybeyonditsownsurvival,andVladimirPutinhasbecomeasnarling
stuntmanwithasurgicallyenhancedappearanceandapropaganda-enhancedapprovalrating.

Yetdespitethiswretchedhand,Russia'sautocrathasbeentrumpingtheWest.Justlastweek,afterPresidentObama
gaveaspeechattheUnitedNations,Mr.PutinbeganbombingthepoliticalopponentsoftheSyrianbutcherBasharal-
Assadinthenameofcombating"terrorism."

StevenLeeMyers's"TheNewTsar:TheRiseandReignofVladimirPutin"providesacomprehensivelookatRussia's
would-besaviorandAmerica'snemesis.Muchoftheaccountisfamiliar:thePutinfamily'sshabbycommunalapartment
inpost-WorldWarIILeningradyoungVladimirasanindifferentstudentandcourtyardruffianthesuddendiscipline
instilledbymartialartshisobsessionwiththepopularfilmseries"ShieldandSword"(1968),whichinspiredadreamto
jointheKGB.ThetapontheshoulderthatfulfilledthatdreamcamewhilehewasalawstudentatLeningradState
University.Nextupwasspyschool,acareerpolicingthoughtinLeningradandthenaforeignassignmentinanEast
Germanbackwater.

Mr.Myers,whospentsevenyearsasaNewYorkTimescorrespondentinMoscow,digsthroughanimpressivelywide
rangeofmaterials,gatheringrevealingquotesfromlifelongloyalistsaswellasinsiderswhobrokeranks.Unlikesomany
otherauthorswhotakeonMr.Putin,herefusestocherrypickanecdotesorindulgeindippyconspiracytheories.His
reliable,wealth-of-detailsapproachcapturesthezigsandzagsofMr.Putin'sevolution.

TheimplosionoftheEasternBlocandthenoftheSovietUnionin1989-91meantanewlifeforMr.Putinastopdeputyto
thedemocraticallyelectedmayorofSt.Petersburg,AnatolySobchak.TheKGBoperativetriedtomakeRussia'sversion
ofdemocracywork:WhenrivalsdeployeddirtytrickstofoilSobchak'sre-electioncampaigninthemid-1990s,Mr.Putin
indignantlywrotetoMoscowdemandingthattheKremlintake"decisiveactiontoendtheuseofthelaw-enforcement
authoritiesforpoliticalpurposes."

Hisnaiveappealfellflat,butconnectionssooncatapultedhimintothepresidentialadministrationinMoscow,andin1998
apromotionbyBorisYeltsinmadeMr.PutintheheadoftheKGB'ssuccessoragency.Hisascenttothepresidencyisits
ownsordidtale.

PresidentPutin'sfirstterm(2000-04)brimmedwithhopeandeconomicgrowth.Whenandwhyheabandonedhisefforts
atstructuralreformremainsamatterofcontroversy.

Mr.MyersapprovinglyquotesaletterwrittenbytheimprisonedoilmagnateMikhailKhodorkovskyin2004,inwhichhe
saidthatMr.Putin"isprobablyneitheraliberalnorademocrat,butheisstillmoreliberalanddemocraticthan70percent
ofourcountry'spopulation."ButthisassertionremainsunsubstantiatedbecauseMr.Myers'sbiographydoesn'texamine
Russiansociety.TheauthoralsoseemstolendsomesupporttothepopularnarrativewithinRussiaof"Western
betrayal,"pointingoutthatMr.PutinheldfourmeetingswithPresidentGeorgeW.Bushin2001,andallhegotwasa
week'snoticewhenWashingtonunilaterallyabrogatedtheAnti-BallisticMissileTreaty.Butwhatoftheexperienceof
rebuildingstatepowerinshapingMr.Putin'struculence?WhatoftheperennialconundrumofconfrontingtheWest's
abidingsuperiorityandRussia'sweakness?
FewpeoplewhohavehadabrushwithMr.Putincomeoffwellhere.Afterhisre-electiontoasecondtermin2004,the
investorBillBrowdertoldajournalistthat"peoplewillforgetinsixmonthsthatKhodorkovskyisstillsittinginjail"-andhe
andotherscontinuedtoinvestinthecountry.Similarly,JohnBrowne,thenCEOofBP,ishearddismissingthePutin
regime'sannihilationofMr.Khodorkovsky'sprivateoilcompanyYukoswiththecomment:"Nocountryhascomesofarin
suchashortspaceoftime."(BPlaterpartneredwithRosneft,thecompanythatstoleYukos.)

Mr.MyerslaysbarethehashofGeorgeW.Bush'slook-into-Mr.Putin's-soulRussiapolicy,whichculminatedinthe
consolidationofthepartitionofGeorgiain2008.HethenrecountstheblowupofPresidentBarackObama'sresetRussia
policy.

TheauthorremindsusthatSecretaryofStateHillaryClintonwarnedinDecember2012thatMr.Putin'sproposed
"EurasianUnion"soughttosubjugateitsformerpossessionsandaddedthat"wearetryingtofigureouteffectivewaysto
slowdownorpreventit."Mr.Putinsabotageditforherin2014,whenheseizedCrimeafromUkraine,consolidatinga
strongpro-EuropemajorityinKievandsendingchillsthroughthecapitalsofBelarusandKazakhstan.ButUkraineisnow
dismembered.

Countlesssecondarycharactersareintroducedknowledgeablyhere,butnonecometofull-bloodedlife.Eventhe
protagonistcanseemelusive.ContraMr.Myers,Mr.Putinisnota"tsar."Theambiguityofanysuccessionispotentially
themostdebilitatingaspectofhisrule,asitisforallauthoritarianregimes.Still,Mr.Myers'sportrait-withmaliceasMr.
Putin'sdefiningattribute-isdevastatingpreciselybecauseitisjudiciouslydrawn.

Ultimately,Mr.Putin'stacticalcoupscannotconcealhisfailuretoreviveRussiaasagenuinegreatpower.Atonepoint,
Mr.Myersshows,Mr.Putinhimselfknewbetter."Itseemstoallofus-andIwilladmit,tomesometimesaswell-thatby
imposingstrictorderwithanironfist,wewillallbegintolivebetter,morecomfortably,moresecurely,"Mr.Putinobserved
in2002."Inactualfactthatcomfortwouldveryquicklypassbecausethatironfistwouldveryquicklybegintostrangleus."
From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 10/01/201508:35:47AM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
Subject: FW:BBCCommentary:HowPutinBlindsidedtheUSOverSyria

From:GlenHoward[mailto:howard@jamestown.org]
Sent:Wednesday,September30,20155:41PM
To:Prof.S.FredStarrSEndersWimbushJohnBDunlopPavelBaevPavelFelgenhauerJacobKippTimothyThomasMatthewCzekajClintonSmullyanJrRobSpring
WillemdeVogelBillRichardsPeterWoodPeterMattisTemuriYakobashviliDanielPFataalan.merbaum@lmco.comCharlesLannanAhmedHashimOmarHumadiZuhair
HumadiHamzaShareefAdelBashqawiMichaelE.KavoukjianktmcfarlandWladimirvanWilgenburg
Subject:BBCCommentary:HowPutinBlindsidedtheUSOverSyria

Greatcommentary.NotesaftermakingadealonMondayandagreeingtocoordinatewithTheUS,Moscowlaunchesairstrikeswithlittlenotice.Tomakemattersworse,
insteadofaphonecallaRussian3stargeneraldrivestoUSembassyinBaghdad,knocksonthedoorandsaysthebombingstartsin1hourandalertyourguys.

Glen

US&Canada

HowPutinblindsidedtheUSoverSyria

3hoursago
JonSopelNorthAmericaeditor

FromthesectionUS&Canada

57comments

ImagecopyrightAPImagecaptionTheUNhandshakemaskedaraftofdifferences

ThereshouldbenosurprisesaboutwhattheRussianshavedone.
TheyhaveconsistentlymadecleartheirsupportforPresidentAssad.ItwashardlyagreatsecretthattheyhadmovedmilitaryassetsintoSyria-and
theRussianpilotshadn'tflowntheirfighteraircraftovertotheEasternMediterraneantoearnsomeextraairmiles.

PresidentVladimirPutinhadameetingwithPresidentBarackObamaonMondaynighttoexplainwhatRussia'splanwas-andalthoughtherewere
profounddifferences,USofficialssaidtheyunderstoodbetterwhatRussia'sintentionswere.

Andyet.

Isn'ttheresomethingtotallyjaw-dropping,gob-smacking,eyebrow-arching,eartwitchinglyextraordinary-andnottomention,casual-abouttheway
theAmericanslearntaboutRussianplans?

ItbeganwithaphonecallfromaRussiandiplomattohiscounterpartinBaghdadtosay"we'vegotsomethinginterestingtotellyou".

Thenathree-starRussiangeneralleavestheRussianembassycompoundandknocksonthedooroftheAmericanone,andaskstoseetheUSmilitary
attache.

HetellstheAmericanmilitarymanthatbombingstartsinanhour,soyou'dbettergetoutofSyrianairspacenowandmoveanyassetsyouhaveoffthe
ground.And60minuteslater,thebombingstarted.

Wow.TosaytheAmericanswereblindsidedbythisunorthodoxlineofcommunicationistoputitmildly.Havinghadtheir"cleartheair"meetingon
Mondaynighttherewasananticipationthatthoughtheremightbebigpolicydifferences,therewouldbeadegreeofco-ordinationandopenness.

Justconsiderthis-therisksofaUSfighterplanerunningintoaRussianonewithunimaginableconsequenceshasjustratchetedup.Aretheygoingto
takeitonturnstobombtargets?Onedayit'stheAmericansandtheirallies,thenextdayit'stheRussians.Youdon'tneedtobeamilitaryhistorianto
knowthatthatisnotgoingtofly(sotospeak).

Andthatisbeforewegettothestrategicobjectives.

ImagecopyrightAPImagecaptionMoscowsaiditwasstrikingIslamicStatepositionsbuttheUSbelievestheywereattackingoppositiongroups

AretheRussianstryingtodestroyIS/Isis/Isil/DaeshoraretheytryingtopropupPresidentAssad?TheAmericansseethetwoasverydifferent,the
Russianslessso.

Ontheevidenceofoneday'sbombingitlookstobeverymuchthelatter.ThetargetofRussianordnancehasbeeninplaceswhereIShasno
presence.

Inotherwords,otherrebelgroups-anyrebelgroups-opposedtoPresidentAssadarebeingtargeted.Andthatraisesanotherhugequestion.Whatif
theRussiansstarthittingUSbackedandarmedrebelgroups?Thatisnotgoingtoendwell.

AndwhoknowshowmanyUSspecialforcestheremightbeonthegroundhelpingthoserebelgroups?Whatiftheyfindthemselvescomingunderfire
-dotheycallinUScloseairsupporttoseeofftheirRussianattackers?

TheAmericansclearlycameawaywiththeunderstandingaftertheMondaynighttte-a-ttethattheyhadanagreementononething-thatISneeded
tobeattackedanddestroyed,anddisagreementonanother-theroleofPresidentAssadinSyria'sfuturepoliticalsettlement.
ImagecopyrightReutersImagecaptionJohnKerryandSergeyLavrovdiscussedtheconflictonWednesday

Well-anditisdayoneofRussianaction-itlookslikeRussiaisnotdistinguishingbetweendifferentrebelgroups.IfthesegroupsareagainstAssad,
theycouldfindthemselvesinthecrosshairsoftheRussianAirForce.

AshtonCarter,theUSdefencesecretary,saysthereisadangerthatRussiaispouringgasolineontothefire.Healsoinsiststherehavebeennobig
surprisesinwhattheRussianshavedonetoday.Hmm.Idon'tthinktheAmericanshadthewaytodayunfoldedintheirplaybook.

OnceagainVladimirPutinhasseeminglyoutmanoeuvredtheWhiteHouse.AseniorUSdiplomatsaidtometheotherdaythatwhenObamaleaves
officehewillberoundlyapplaudedforthewayhenegotiatedandultimatelydeliveredadealonIran,butwillbejustifiablyvilifiedforthevacillationand
vaguenessoverhisSyriapolicy.

Putin,ontheotherhand,hasbeentotallyconsistent.HewantstoprotectRussia'sonlydeepwaterportontheEasternMediterraneanandwilldowhat
ittakestoprotectit.

SonowitlooksliketheUSadministrationhasachoicetomake-isitgoingtoriskconfrontationwiththeRussians,orisitgoingtoacceptthatAssad
ain'tgoinganywhereandisthereforthelonghaul?Noteasychoices.

ThekeyargumentofObama'sspeechattheUNonMondaywas"Chooseco-operationoverconflict.Thatisnotweakness,thatisstrength."Doesn't
seemtobeVladimir'smodusoperandi.

ThealreadyintractableproblemofSyriahasjustbecomeawholelotmorecomplex-andawholelotmoredangerous.
From: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 10/03/201501:41:25AM
To: GeneFishel<obolon78@yahoo.com>JohnWilliams<willijp1@yahoo.com>
Subject: MoreevidencewhyMassicotisaneffin'twit(n.b.reactionontheground)

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/2015/10/02/44c1f7fc-6932-11e5-9223-
70cb36460919_story.html?tid=pm_world_pop_b

U.S.willnotdirectlyconfrontRussiainSyria,
Obamasays
PresidentObamahasdecidednottodirectlyconfrontRussiaoveritsnewairoffensiveinSyria,believingthat
PresidentVladimirPutinwillsoonfindhimselfinaSyrianquagmire,buthehasapprovedanewescalationofU.S.
effortsagainsttheIslamicState.

ObamalaidouttheU.S.responsetoRussiasactionsduringameetingwithsenioraidesThursdayevening.Details
werefirmedupinameetingFridaymorningamongnationalsecurityprincipalsattheWhiteHouse,senior
administrationofficialssaid.

Atthesametime,thepresidentalsoapprovedproposals,madepriortothisweeksRussianactions,tostrengthenthe
U.S.fightagainstthemilitants.ThosemeasureswererecommendedbyObamasnewJointChiefsofStaffchairman,
Gen.JosephF.DunfordJr.

TheyincludedirectU.S.weaponsshipments,overlandfromIraq,toSyrianKurdishandArabfighterswhoinrecent
monthshavepushedtheIslamicStatefromamajorportionofnorthernSyriaalongtheTurkishborder.

TheKurdsarenowexpectedtobeginmovingsouthtowardRaqqa,thedefactomilitantcapital,innorth-central
Syria.
U.S.airstrikesarealsoslatedtoincreasewestoftheEuphrates,whereU.S.-backedoppositionforceshavehadlittle
recentsuccessagainsttheIslamicState.ThosestrikesarebeinglaunchedfromIncirlikairbaseinTurkey,where
aircraftfromothercoalitionpartnerswilljoinU.S.planes.

FarfromattackingtheIslamicState,asRussiahassaiditintends,itsthreedaysofairstrikesappeartohavefocused
largelyonoppositionforces,someofthemU.S.-backed,thatarefightingacrosswesternSyriaagainstthearmyof
PresidentBasharal-
Assad,whosegovernmentisbackedbyMoscow.

Obamadidnotresponddirectlytoquestionsaboutwhat,ifanything,hewoulddotohelptheembattledopposition,
whichincludesthousandsoffighterswhohavebeentrainedandarmedovertheyearsbytheCIA,aswellasnon-
IslamicStateextremists.SenioradministrationofficialssaidthattrainingandlimitedsuppliesforthoseinsideSyria
wouldcontinuebutthatthepolicywaslikelytocontinue.

CurrentandformerU.S.officialsvoicedconcernthattheRussianbombingwoulddamageacovertprogramalready
strugglingtogaintractioninthefightagainstAssad.Itisalsolikelytoincreasefrustrationamongtherebelsthatthe
AmericansdontdoasmuchastheRussiansdofortheirsideoftheconflict,saidRobertFord,theformerU.S.
ambassadortoSyriawhoresignedthatpositioninpartoutoffrustrationwithadministrationpolicy.

Rep.AdamSchiff(Calif.),therankingDemocratontheHouseIntelligenceCommittee,saidtheRussianmovereally
upstheantefortheUnitedStates.WedohavegreatreputationalcostsinlettingtheRussiansassertthemselvesand
beseenasamoreforcefulactoronthegroundinSyria.Wealsohaveadeepinterestinprotectingthemoderate
population,andthatsgoingtopushustohavegreaterinvolvement,whichisariskyproposition.
AnydirectmilitaryresponseagainstRussia,aU.S.militaryofficialsaid,wouldprobablyrequirenewpresidential
authorities.ButObama,speakingataWhiteHousenewsconferenceFriday,madeitclearthathehasnointentionof
directlyconfrontingRussianforces.

WerenotgoingtomakeSyriaintoaproxywarbetweentheUnitedStatesandRussia.Thatwouldbeabad
strategyonourpart,Obamasaid.ThisisabattlebetweenRussia,IranandAssadagainsttheoverwhelming
majorityoftheSyrianpeople.OurbattleiswithISIL,hesaid,referringtotheIslamicState.

ObamarespondedangrilytosuggestionsofU.S.weaknessinthefaceofRussianaggression,includingPutins
decisiontolaunchsurpriseairstrikesjusttwodaysaftermeetingwithObamaattheUnitedNations.

Thisisnotsomesuperpowerchessboardcontest,Obamasaid.Mr.PutinhadtogointoSyrianotoutofstrength
butoutofweakness,becausehisclient,Mr.Assad,wascrumbling.

RatherthanbuildingsupportforAssad,aminorityruler,RussiawouldalienateSyriasSunnimajorityandtheSunni-
ruledcountriesintheregionhehasbeentryingtocourt,Obamasaid.

ThepresidentsaidthisattemptbyRussiaandIran,theregimesotherbacker,topropupAssadandtrytopacify
thepopulationisjustgoingtogetthemstuckinaquagmire.Anditwontwork.Andtheywillbethereforawhileif
theydonttakeadifferentcourse.

AtleastoneseniorRussianofficialnotedthatRussiahadlearnedduringitsill-fatedoccupationofAfghanistanduring
the1980sthatairstrikesarenotenoughtoholdterritoryalessontheUnitedStateshasalsolearnedmorerecently
inbothSyriaandIraq.

WithoutanimmediategroundoperationbytheweakenedSyrianarmytocapturebombedoppositionterritory,the
resultsoftheseairstrikeswillbebroughttonaught,Gen.MakhmutGareyev,presidentoftheAcademyofMilitary
Sciences,said,accordingtotheRussiannewsagencyInterfax.

InaconversationThursdaybetweentheU.S.DefenseDepartmentandRussiasDefenseMinistry,arrangedtode-
conflictthecountriesairoperationsoverSyriaandavoidapossiblecollision,theRussiansrequestedU.S.
intelligenceonpossibleIslamicStatetargets,accordingtoasenioradministrationofficial,oneofseveralwho
discussedinternaldiscussionsontheconditionofanonymity.

TheanswerwegaveisthatwecannotcoordinatewithyouifyourefightingtheSyrianopposition....Werenot
goingtomaketheirtaskanyeasieriftheirfightisthewrongfight,theofficialsaid.DuringtheirU.N.conversation,
theofficialsaid,ObamatoldPutinthatifyourenotinterestedinfightingtheIslamicState,whattypeofpossible
engagementcouldtherebebetweenthem?Inhisnewsconference,Obamaalsodefendedhisdecisionstonot
directlyinterveneinSyriascivilwaroverthepastfouryears.AndwhenIhearpeopleofferinguphalf-bakedideas
asiftheyaresolutions,ortryingtodownplaythechallengesinvolvedinthissituationwhatIdliketoseepeople
askis,specifically,precisely,whatexactlywouldyoudo,andhowwouldyoufundit,andhowwouldyousustainit?

Andtypically,whatyougetisabunchofmumbojumbo,hesaid.

WearegoingtocontinuetogoafterISIL.Wearegoingtocontinuetoreachouttoamoderateopposition,Obama
said.

TheCIAhasprovidedthethousandsoffightersithastrainedatsecretbasesinJordanwithcommunications
equipment,intelligencesupportandarms,includingantitankmissiles.ThoseCIA-backedfightersreenteredSyria
acrossthatcountryssouthernborderwithJordan,butmanyhavemadetheirwayintounitsthatarenowarrayed
northandeastofDamascusareasthathavebeenpoundedbyRussianstrikesoverthepastseveraldays.

AformerseniorU.S.intelligenceofficialsaidtheU.S.failuretorespondtothestrikesorbolstersupportforCIA-
trainedunitsislikelytoangerCIAparamilitaryteamsintheregionthathaveforseveralyearschafedatWhiteHouse-
imposedlimitsonthelevelofsupportgiventomoderaterebelgroups.

Thereisahugeamountoffrustrationwiththeindecisionandabilitytocommitbythisadministration,saidaformer
seniorU.S.intelligenceofficialwithextensiveexperienceintheMiddleEast.Theagencyhasaproblem,theformer
officialsaid.U.S.-backedfighterslookattheCIAorDODtrainersasreflectingtheU.S.government.Theybelieve
thatweknowwhatsgoingonandcaninfluencewhatsgoingon.Ifwerenotinfluencingit,itmakestheminsecure.
Theywilldefect,gohomeorjointherefugeestreamheadingtoEurope.

ThecurrentandformerofficialsalsoexpressedconcernthattheRussianstrikeswouldpromptrebelgroupsto
intensifytheireffortstoacquireantiaircraftweaponry,includingsurface-to-airmissilesmunitionstheUnitedStates
hasworkedtokeepoutofSyriaforfearthattheywouldbeseizedbyal-QaedaortheIslamicState.

TheCIAoperationhaslargelyavoidedtheblundersthathavebesettheseparatelyrunPentagonefforttoarmand
trainrebelstofighttheIslamicState,aprogramthathasseenitsfightersquicklycapturedandsurrenderingtheir
weaponstoanal-Qaedaaffiliate.Evenso,theCIAprogramhasfailedtoshiftthecourseoftheconflictinSyria,and
agency-backedfightershavelongcomplainedabouttheU.S.refusaltoprovidemorepowerfulweapons,airsupport
orno-flyzones.

FormersecretaryofstateHillaryRodhamClinton,whoisseekingtheDemocraticpresidentialnomination,said
ThursdaythattheUnitedStatesshouldcreateno-flyzonesandhumanitariancorridorstoprotectciviliansand
moderateanti-
AssadrebelsinSyria.

ObamasaidClintonisnothalf-bakedintermsofherapproachtotheseproblems.But,hesaid,theresa
differencebetweenrunningforpresidentandbeingpresident.Andthedecisionsthatarebeingmadeandthe
discussionsthatImhavingwiththeJointChiefsbecomemuchmorespecificandrequire,Ithink,adifferentkindof
judgment.

Ifandwhenshespresident,thenshellmakethosejudgments,Obamasaid,addingthatthesearetoughcalls.

MissyRyanandStevenMufsoncontributedtothisreport.
From: Williams,JohnP<WilliamsJP@state.gov>
Senttime: 10/08/201505:40:04AM
To: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>Fishel,Eugene<FishelE@state.gov>
RE:GoodStufffromKotkin:hisreviewofMeyersbook(Ultimately,Mr.Putin'stacticalcoupscannotconcealhisfailuretoreviveRussiaasa
Subject:
genuinegreatpower)

ThanksreftoDawisha?:UnlikesomanyotherauthorswhotakeonMr.Putin,herefusestocherrypickanecdotesor
indulgeindippyconspiracytheories.Hisreliable,wealth-of-detailsapproachcapturesthezigsandzagsofMr.Putin's
evolution.

From:RobertOtto[mailto:robertotto25@gmail.com]
Sent:Thursday,October08,20154:49AM
To:Williams,JohnPFishel,Eugene
Subject:GoodStufffromKotkin:hisreviewofMeyersbook(Ultimately,Mr.Putin'stacticalcoupscannotconcealhisfailuretorevive
Russiaasagenuinegreatpower)

#3
WallStreetJournal
October6,2015
Russia'sSnarlingStuntman
Russiaisdeclining,withtalentandcapitalinfullflight.Yetdespitethiswretchedhand,VladimirPutinistrumpingthe
West.
BySTEPHENKOTKIN
Mr.Kotkin,authorof"Stalin,"isaPrincetonprofessorandaHooverInstitutionfellowatStanford.

THENEWTSAR
ByStevenLeeMyers
Knopf,572pages,$32.50

Russia'sdeclinecontinues.Beneaththebluster,elitesarejittery.Thepopulaceispridefulbutmiserable.Talent-notjust
capital-isinfullflight.Theregimehasnostrategybeyonditsownsurvival,andVladimirPutinhasbecomeasnarling
stuntmanwithasurgicallyenhancedappearanceandapropaganda-enhancedapprovalrating.

Yetdespitethiswretchedhand,Russia'sautocrathasbeentrumpingtheWest.Justlastweek,afterPresidentObama
gaveaspeechattheUnitedNations,Mr.PutinbeganbombingthepoliticalopponentsoftheSyrianbutcherBasharal-
Assadinthenameofcombating"terrorism."

StevenLeeMyers's"TheNewTsar:TheRiseandReignofVladimirPutin"providesacomprehensivelookatRussia's
would-besaviorandAmerica'snemesis.Muchoftheaccountisfamiliar:thePutinfamily'sshabbycommunalapartment
inpost-WorldWarIILeningradyoungVladimirasanindifferentstudentandcourtyardruffianthesuddendiscipline
instilledbymartialartshisobsessionwiththepopularfilmseries"ShieldandSword"(1968),whichinspiredadreamto
jointheKGB.ThetapontheshoulderthatfulfilledthatdreamcamewhilehewasalawstudentatLeningradState
University.Nextupwasspyschool,acareerpolicingthoughtinLeningradandthenaforeignassignmentinanEast
Germanbackwater.

Mr.Myers,whospentsevenyearsasaNewYorkTimescorrespondentinMoscow,digsthroughanimpressivelywide
rangeofmaterials,gatheringrevealingquotesfromlifelongloyalistsaswellasinsiderswhobrokeranks.Unlikesomany
otherauthorswhotakeonMr.Putin,herefusestocherrypickanecdotesorindulgeindippyconspiracytheories.His
reliable,wealth-of-detailsapproachcapturesthezigsandzagsofMr.Putin'sevolution.

TheimplosionoftheEasternBlocandthenoftheSovietUnionin1989-91meantanewlifeforMr.Putinastopdeputyto
thedemocraticallyelectedmayorofSt.Petersburg,AnatolySobchak.TheKGBoperativetriedtomakeRussia'sversion
ofdemocracywork:WhenrivalsdeployeddirtytrickstofoilSobchak'sre-electioncampaigninthemid-1990s,Mr.Putin
indignantlywrotetoMoscowdemandingthattheKremlintake"decisiveactiontoendtheuseofthelaw-enforcement
authoritiesforpoliticalpurposes."

Hisnaiveappealfellflat,butconnectionssooncatapultedhimintothepresidentialadministrationinMoscow,andin1998
apromotionbyBorisYeltsinmadeMr.PutintheheadoftheKGB'ssuccessoragency.Hisascenttothepresidencyisits
ownsordidtale.

PresidentPutin'sfirstterm(2000-04)brimmedwithhopeandeconomicgrowth.Whenandwhyheabandonedhisefforts
atstructuralreformremainsamatterofcontroversy.

Mr.MyersapprovinglyquotesaletterwrittenbytheimprisonedoilmagnateMikhailKhodorkovskyin2004,inwhichhe
saidthatMr.Putin"isprobablyneitheraliberalnorademocrat,butheisstillmoreliberalanddemocraticthan70percent
ofourcountry'spopulation."ButthisassertionremainsunsubstantiatedbecauseMr.Myers'sbiographydoesn'texamine
Russiansociety.TheauthoralsoseemstolendsomesupporttothepopularnarrativewithinRussiaof"Western
betrayal,"pointingoutthatMr.PutinheldfourmeetingswithPresidentGeorgeW.Bushin2001,andallhegotwasa
week'snoticewhenWashingtonunilaterallyabrogatedtheAnti-BallisticMissileTreaty.Butwhatoftheexperienceof
rebuildingstatepowerinshapingMr.Putin'struculence?WhatoftheperennialconundrumofconfrontingtheWest's
abidingsuperiorityandRussia'sweakness?

FewpeoplewhohavehadabrushwithMr.Putincomeoffwellhere.Afterhisre-electiontoasecondtermin2004,the
investorBillBrowdertoldajournalistthat"peoplewillforgetinsixmonthsthatKhodorkovskyisstillsittinginjail"-andhe
andotherscontinuedtoinvestinthecountry.Similarly,JohnBrowne,thenCEOofBP,ishearddismissingthePutin
regime'sannihilationofMr.Khodorkovsky'sprivateoilcompanyYukoswiththecomment:"Nocountryhascomesofarin
suchashortspaceoftime."(BPlaterpartneredwithRosneft,thecompanythatstoleYukos.)

Mr.MyerslaysbarethehashofGeorgeW.Bush'slook-into-Mr.Putin's-soulRussiapolicy,whichculminatedinthe
consolidationofthepartitionofGeorgiain2008.HethenrecountstheblowupofPresidentBarackObama'sresetRussia
policy.

TheauthorremindsusthatSecretaryofStateHillaryClintonwarnedinDecember2012thatMr.Putin'sproposed
"EurasianUnion"soughttosubjugateitsformerpossessionsandaddedthat"wearetryingtofigureouteffectivewaysto
slowdownorpreventit."Mr.Putinsabotageditforherin2014,whenheseizedCrimeafromUkraine,consolidatinga
strongpro-EuropemajorityinKievandsendingchillsthroughthecapitalsofBelarusandKazakhstan.ButUkraineisnow
dismembered.

Countlesssecondarycharactersareintroducedknowledgeablyhere,butnonecometofull-bloodedlife.Eventhe
protagonistcanseemelusive.ContraMr.Myers,Mr.Putinisnota"tsar."Theambiguityofanysuccessionispotentially
themostdebilitatingaspectofhisrule,asitisforallauthoritarianregimes.Still,Mr.Myers'sportrait-withmaliceasMr.
Putin'sdefiningattribute-isdevastatingpreciselybecauseitisjudiciouslydrawn.

Ultimately,Mr.Putin'stacticalcoupscannotconcealhisfailuretoreviveRussiaasagenuinegreatpower.Atonepoint,
Mr.Myersshows,Mr.Putinhimselfknewbetter."Itseemstoallofus-andIwilladmit,tomesometimesaswell-thatby
imposingstrictorderwithanironfist,wewillallbegintolivebetter,morecomfortably,moresecurely,"Mr.Putinobserved
in2002."Inactualfactthatcomfortwouldveryquicklypassbecausethatironfistwouldveryquicklybegintostrangleus."
From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 10/03/201510:03:51AM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
Subject: FW:[Newpost]WatchthisinterestingvideooftheRussianplanes(withRedStarpaintedover)atworkinSyria

From:GlenHoward[mailto:howard@jamestown.org]
Sent:Friday,October02,20152:59PM
To:AdelBashqawiAhmedHashimJonChickyNickHerasMichaelWSRyanjakekippMatthewCzekajClintonSmullyanJrRob
SpringEerikKrosssocor@jamestown.orgIyadYougharTemuriYakobashviliTraininblankJohnBDunlop
<Bohdan.Kupych@kmcore.com>CharlesLannanRomanMashovets
Subject:Fwd:[Newpost]WatchthisinterestingvideooftheRussianplanes(withRedStarpaintedover)atworkinSyria

Interestingvideo.ArticlenotestheRussianshaveerasedtheRussianflagandREDstarfromtheirfighterplanes.Besuretonote
howRTsaystheRussianpilotsarebeingespeciallycarefulnottohurtcivilians.TheexcellentWSJarticleonthebombing
campaigntodayalsoreportedthattheRussianswereflyingnightraids,inadditiontoflyingduringtheday.Syriansneverflyat
night.

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:TheAviationist<donotreply@wordpress.com>
Date:Fri,Oct2,2015at4:44PM
Subject:[Newpost]WatchthisinterestingvideooftheRussianplanes(withRedStarpaintedover)atworkinSyria
To:howard@jamestown.org

DavidCenciottiposted:"TakealookatwhathappensinsideLatakiaairbase,wheretheRussianAirForcecontingentisbased.
ThefollowingexclusivevideobyRTbringsyouinsideal-AssadInternationalAirport,nearLatakia,whereRussianAirForce
contingent,currentlymadeof"

NewpostonTheAviationist

WatchthisinterestingvideooftheRussianplanes(withRedStarpaintedover)
atworkinSyria
byDavidCenciotti

Takealookatwhathappensinside
Latakiaairbase,wheretheRussianAir
Forcecontingentisbased.
ThefollowingexclusivevideobyRTbringsyouinsideal-AssadInternationalAirport,near
Latakia,whereRussianAirForcecontingent,currentlymadeof36combatplanes,is
based.

ThefootageisextremelyinterestingasitclearlyshowsthesixSu-34Fullbackaircraft
returningfromthefirstcombatsortiesagainstIslamicStatetargetsinSyria.

Acloserlookatthewarplanesprovidestheconfirmationthatalltheaircraft,includingthe
Su-25sandtheSu-34s,wereremovedthestandardRussianAirForcemarkingsandthe
typicalRedStar:mostprobablytheRussiansdon'twanttheirsymboltobeshownoff
alongwiththewreckageofaplaneincaseoneisshotdownorcrashesinSyria.

Bytheway,theinsigniawereoverpaintedontheSu-30SMsandtheSu-24Msaswell,
evenifthesearenotclearlyvisibleinthisvideohowevertherearescreenshotsinthe
socialmediathatprovethesameappliestoFlankersandFencers.

Thisisnotthefirsttimeaircrafttakingpartinrealoperationsarestrippedofftheir
nationalmarkings.UAEF-16sdeployedtoJordantotakepartinOperationInherent
Resolvedidn'twearthenationalflagwhilesomeU.S.dronesdeployedinsensitiveareas
performtheirclandestinemissionsunmarked.

Relatedarticles

NewSatelliteImageunveilsanimpressiveline-upof12RussianSu-25FrogfootattackjetsinSyria!

SatelliteimageshowsfourRussianSu-30SMparkedintheopenairatairfieldinSyria

OnlineflighttrackingprovidesinterestingdetailsaboutRussianairbridgetoSyria

NewvideomayshowRussianIl-78tankerescortedbySu-24FencerjetsoverSyriatoday

Here'showtheRussianAirForcemoved28aircrafttoSyria(almost)undetected

RarevideoshowsRussianAirForceTu-160BlackjackbombersactivityintheArctic

Here'sastunningvideo(includingcockpitfootage)oftheawesomeSukhoiSu-30SM

DavidCenciotti|October2,2015at9:43pm|Tags:Islamicstate,Latakia,RussianAirForce,
Su-34Fullback,SukhoiSu-24,SukhoiSu-25|Categories:RogueStates,Russia,Syria,Waron
ISIS|URL:http://wp.me/p2TYIs-8NQ

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GlenE.Howard

President

TheJamestownFoundation

1111SixteenthStreet,N.W.

Suite320

Washington,D.C.20036
From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 10/06/201509:33:14AM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
FW:[LATENITERUN][NICMND][ADDMB-AB-WD]Fwd:FW:CeasefireholdingWeaponswithdrawalPeaceprocessSupportforUkraineNATOForcesFinlandSweden
Subject:
CorruptionHybridwarEffectofSyriauponUkraineSyria.....PLUS:RUOverTurkishAirspa...

From:WalterZaryckyj[mailto:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu]
Sent:Monday,October05,20159:19PM
Subject:Fwd:[LATENITERUN][NICMND][ADDMB-AB-WD]Fwd:FW:CeasefireholdingWeaponswithdrawalPeaceprocessSupportforUkraineNATOForces
FinlandSwedenCorruptionHybridwarEffectofSyriauponUkraineSyria.....PLUS:RUOverTurkishAirspa...

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
Date:Tue,Oct6,2015at12:17AM
Subject:[LATENITERUN][NICMND][ADDMB-AB-WD]Fwd:FW:CeasefireholdingWeaponswithdrawalPeaceprocessSupportforUkraine
NATOForcesFinlandSwedenCorruptionHybridwarEffectofSyriauponUkraineSyria.....PLUS:RUOverTurkishAirspaceTwiceRUSpetnazGetting
intotheSyrianMelee
To:RomaHadzewycz<staff@ukrweekly.com>,rl<romashka1@aol.com>

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:NicMarsh<nic@prio.no>
Date:Mon,Oct5,2015at8:21PM
Subject:FW:CeasefireholdingWeaponswithdrawalPeaceprocessSupportforUkraineNATOForcesFinlandSwedenCorruptionHybridwarEffectof
SyriauponUkraineSyria
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

Ceasefiremostlyholding

LatestfromOSCESpecialMonitoringMission(SMM)toUkrainebasedoninformationreceivedasof4October2015

ThesituationinDonetskandLuhanskremainedgenerallycalm.TheSMMheardsomeexplosionsandsmall-armsfire.

http://www.osce.org/ukraine-smm/189801

TwoUkrainiansoldierskilled,fivewoundedinlandmineblastinDonbas

http://www.unian.info/war/1142886-two-ukrainian-soldiers-killed-five-wounded-in-landmine-blast-in-donbas.html

RussianproxiesattackUkrainiantroopsonceovernight

http://www.unian.info/war/1142589-russian-proxies-attack-ukrainian-troops-once-overnight.html

Weaponswithdrawal

OSCEencouragedasrivalsconfirmpullback
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34442127

OSCE:"LPR"militantspullback30tanksfromcontactline

http://www.unian.info/war/1143496-osce-lpr-militants-pull-back-30-tanks-from-contact-line.html

Ukrainestartspull-backoftanks,lightartilleryineast:military

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/05/us-ukraine-crisis-withdrawal-idUSKCN0RZ0SW20151005

WithdrawaloftanksfromdemarcationlinebeginsinLuhanskregion

http://www.unian.info/war/1142898-withdrawal-of-tanks-from-demarcation-line-begins-in-luhansk-region.html

Ukrainianmilitarystartpullingbacksmall-caliberweapons

http://www.unian.info/war/1142848-ukrainian-military-start-pulling-back-small-caliber-weapons.html

Peaceprocess

UkraineinsistsRussiamustcedeborderbyendofyear

http://news.yahoo.com/ukraine-says-russia-must-cede-border-end-115552073.html

The"DNR"and"LC"allowedthetransferofelection

http://tvrain.ru/news/dnr_and_lnr_elections-395680/

SupportforUkraine

UkrainePresidentSaysObamaApprovedSendingNewWeapons

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-04/ukraine-president-says-obama-approved-sending-new-weapons

NATOForces

PolandLaunchesEffortToHelpArmE.EuropeanAllies

http://www.defensenews.com/story/defense/policy-budget/budget/2015/10/04/poland-launches-effort-help-arm-e-european-allies/73148772/

Finland

FinlandbeginsSquadron2020OPVprogramme
http://www.janes.com/article/54985/finland-begins-squadron-2020-opv-programme

Sweden

SwedenConsidersJoiningUK-ledJointExpeditionaryForce

http://www.defensenews.com/story/defense/policy-budget/policy/2015/10/04/sweden-considers-joining-uk-led-joint-expeditionary-force/72746418/

Corruption

HowtoFightCorruptioninUkraine

ByAndersslund

http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/how-to-fight-corruption-in-ukraine

Hybridwar

HowAreSocietiesDefendedAgainstHybridThreats?

http://www.gcsp.ch/News-Knowledge/Publications/How-are-Societies-Defended-against-Hybrid-Threats

EffectofSyriauponUkraine

Briefing:Putin'sTwo-FrontWar

AsRussianairstrikescontinueinSyria,negotiationsonafinalsettlementforUkraineresumeagaininMinskthisweek.

Onthisweek'sPowerVerticalBriefing,wetakealookatthelinkagebetweenRussia'stwoforeignconflicts.TowhatextenthasVladimirPutin'smoveintoSyria
changedtheconversationonUkraine?

http://www.rferl.org/content/briefing-putins-two-front-war/27288819.html

Syria

Refugees

Someforeignleaders'using'Europe'srefugeecrisis:Tusk

ThehugeinfluxofmigrantsintoEuropeisbeingusedbysomeforeignleaderstoweakentheEuropeanUnionpolitically,EUpresidentDonaldTusksaidFriday
inPoland.

http://news.yahoo.com/foreign-leaders-using-europes-refugee-crisis-tusk-225324029.html

PutinsPianos

BystrikingintoSyria,PutinhasmadehispositionclearthattherecanbenoresolutionintheMiddleEastwithoutRussia,andthattoachievethisgoalMoscowis
preparedtobrushasideWashingtonsobjections.HehasdirectlyinsertedRussianpowerintoanissuethatisnowattheheartoftheincreasinglytroubledEU
project:thefloodofmigrantsenteringEuropefromtheMiddleEastdrivenbythewar.

http://www.the-american-interest.com/2015/10/05/putins-pianos/

RussianforcesinSyria

ThelatestU.S.assessmentofMoscow'sactivityinwesternSyriaindicatesRussiahasmovedseveralgroundcombatweaponsandtroopsintotheareato
potentiallybackupSyrianforcesinthefieldplanningtoattackanti-regimeforces,accordingtotwoU.S.defenseofficials.

TheU.S.viewsthemoveasRussia"steppingupitsgroundactivity"inSyriatoattackthoseforces,ratherthanISISelements,accordingtooneoftheofficials.

It'sbelievedtheRussiansarepositioningtheweaponstobeabletosupportaSyriangroundoffensive,theofficialssaid.

Theequipmentincludesseveralpieceofartillery,aswellasfourBM-30multiple-launchrocketsystems--allconsideredtobehighlyaccurateweapons.The
latteriscapableofrapid-firerocketlaunches.

Severalweeksago,RussiamovedabouthalfadozenartillerypiecesintoLatakiaport.

TheU.S.originallyhadthoughtthatmightbefordefenseoftheport,butthelatestmoveisanindicationofpotentialgroundattacksinthecomingdays,theofficial
said.

http://edition.cnn.com/2015/10/05/politics/russia-ground-campaign-syria-isis/index.html

GeolocationandAnalysisofRussianMinistryofDefenceSyriaAirstrikeVideos

http://bellingcat.checkdesk.org/en/story/736

RussianWarshipsinEasternMediterraneantoProtectRussianStrikeFightersinSyria

http://news.usni.org/2015/10/05/russian-warships-in-eastern-mediterranean-to-protect-russian-strike-fighters-in-syria

ZaslonRussiasUltra-SecretiveSpecialOpsinSyria

http://warisboring.com/articles/zaslon-russias-ultra-secretive-special-ops-in-syria/

Russianairforceusinglaser-guidedKH-29LmissilesinSyria:RIA

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/04/us-mideast-crisis-syria-russia-missile-idUSKCN0RY09520151004

RussiaSu-24strikeaircraftinSyriaarmedwithaKh-25(notKh-29)laser-guidedair-to-surface#missile.

http://twitter.com/NickJDWEurope/status/650970238914310144

-24

http://youtu.be/UyeAE_ryCQM

VideoofastrikebyaRussianSU24

[Appearstobeusingunguideddumbbombs.]

InSyriaSpottedKrasuha-4RussianMobileElectronicWarfareSystems

http://defence-blog.com/army/in-syria-spotted-krasuha-4-russian-mobile-electronic-warfare-systems.html

Krasukha-4EWsystemdeployedin#Syria

http://twitter.com/AbraxasSpa/status/650952853322891264

http://tvzvezda.ru/news/vstrane_i_mire/content/201510040007-eoik.htm

JammingtheJihad:RussianElectronicWarfareSystemsSpottedinSyria

http://sputniknews.com/world/20151005/1028033057/syria-russia-electronic-warfare-systems.html#ixzz3nhT5uCdp

RussianandIsraeliaircraftnarrowlyavoiddueloverSyriancoast

http://www.airlive.net/2015/10/alert-russian-and-israeli-aircraft.html

DidaRussianSu-24FencerdropaclusterbomboverAleppo?

http://theaviationist.com/2015/10/05/russian-cluster-bombs-over-aleppo/

VideoRBK-500-SPBE-D

http://youtu.be/b8cO1FKoN8g

KremlinSaysRussianVolunteerForcesWillFightinSyria

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/06/world/europe/nato-russia-warplane-turkey.html?smid=tw-share

http://www.interfax.ru/russia/471231

PossibleRussianvolunteerstofightinSyria.

KadyrovasksPutintoallowChecheninfantrytofightinSyria

http://www.rt.com/politics/317393-this-will-be-holiday-kadyrov/

Effectsofthedeployment

MoscowscuppersUScoalitionplansforno-flyzoneinSyria

AlongsideamodestLatakia-basedcontingentoftwodozenSu-24FencerandSu-25FrogfootjetsplanesdesignedtostrikelandtargetsMoscowhas
deployedassetswhichrendertheprospectofno-flyzonesenforcedbytheUSoritsalliesoverSyriaimpossibletoenact.

Justweeksago,aftermonthsofdiplomacy,officialswereclosetoanagreementonenforcingaerialsafe-zonestoendtheAssadregimesbombingofciviliansin
northernandsouthernSyria,accordingtodiplomatsandmilitaryofficialsintheUS-ledcoalition.TheagreementwasbasedonJordanianandTurkishplans
presentedearlierthisyear.

ManyofficialsbelieveanimminentmovetorampupcoalitionactivityinSyriaprecipitatedtheKremlinssuddeninterventionlatelastmonth.

TheultimatereasonallthisishappeningisbecauseoftherenewedfocusonSyriaandtheneedforsomesortofpoliticalsolutiontheresomethingwhichwe
thoughtwecouldachievebyenforcingno-flyzones,safezones,saidoneseniorEuropeandiplomat.

Butanyhopesofmilitaryco-ordinationwithRussiatoachievethis,eveninthewakeofitsdisruptivedeployment,areswiftlybeingdashed.

NatossuprememilitarycommanderinEurope,USGeneralPhillipBreedlovewarnedlastweekthatthealliancewasworriedaboutanotherA2/ADbubble
beingcreatedintheeasternMediterranean.A2/ADstandsforanti-access,areadenial.

GenBreedlovesfearshavebeenrealisedinthepastdaysasRussiassmalldeploymentoffourSu-30flankerjets,whichareatLatakiasBasselal-Assadair
basehighlymanoeuvreableaircraftdesignedtoshootdownotheraircrafthasbeenaugmentedwithafarmorepowerfularsenal.

RussiasministryofdefenceannouncedonFridaythedeploymentofitsnavycruisertheMoskvatoLatakia.TheMoskvaisarmedwithacomplementof64S-
300ship-to-airmissiles,Russiasmostpowerfulanti-aircraftweapon.

DeploymentofS-300sorothersimilarlysophisticatedsystems,alsoknownastriple-digitSamshaslongbeenoneofthePentagonsbiggestfearsinthe
MiddleEast.TheS-300system,whichhasanoperatingrangeof150km,iscapableofstrikingdownallbutthemostsophisticatedstealthaircraft.Itmeansmost
missionsflownbyWashingtonscoalitionalliesJordan,forexample,usesF-16jetsarenowhighlyvulnerable.EventheUKsdeploymentofTornadosand
TyphoonsattheRoyalAirForcesbaseatAkrotiri,Cyprus,isthreatenedbythemissiles.

TheRussianforcesnowinplacemakeitvery,veryobviousthatanykindofno-flyzoneontheLibyanmodelimposedbytheUSandalliesisnowimpossible,
unlessthecoalitionisactuallywillingtoshootdownRussianaircraft,saysJustinBronk,researchanalystattheRoyalUnitedServicesInstitute.

TheRussiansarenotplayingballatdeconflictiontheyarejustsaying,keepoutofourway.ThecoalitionsoperationsinSyriawillbevastlymorecomplex
fromariskassessmentpointofviewandfromamission-planningpointofview.

EvensurveillancemissionsaboveSyriabyUSandcoalitionaircraftwillbecomplicated.OneNatoairforceofficersaidtheorganisationexpectedtostartseeing
thekindofcoldwartacticsandbrinkmanshipRussiahasrecentlybeenusingintheBaltics.PilotswillbebriefedtoexpectpowerfulRussianradarsystems
lightinguptheiraircraftinshowsofstrength,hesaid

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/cee6fcba-69bf-11e5-8171-ba1968cf791a.html#ixzz3nhTrhZnT

RussiaBombsRescuersinSyria

Double-tapairstrikekillsWhiteHelmet

http://warisboring.com/articles/russia-bombs-rescuers-in-syria/?mc_cid=b9ef6c05fd&mc_eid=7fbc580ab1

Russia'sairstrikesinSyriaareplayingwellathome

http://www.stripes.com/news/europe/russia-s-airstrikes-in-syria-are-playing-well-at-home-1.371767

PerfectconditionsforairstrikesonSyria,saysweatherforecasteronRussianTV

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/oct/05/perfect-weather-for-airstrikes-russian-tv-forecast-sets-sights-on-syria

SplitoverAssad,ArabstatesmumonRussia'sSyriastrikes

http://news.yahoo.com/split-over-assad-arab-states-mum-russias-syria-151908092.html

IraqwouldwelcomeRussianairstrikesagainstISIS

http://www.airforcetimes.com/story/military/2015/10/05/russian-airstrikes-against-isis-welcomed-iraq-islamic-state/73386916/

USresponse

U.S.AimstoPutMorePressureonISISinSyria

PresidentObamalastweekapprovedtwoimportantstepstosettheoffensiveinmotionoverthecomingweeks,officialssaid.Mr.ObamaorderedthePentagon,
forthefirsttime,todirectlyprovideammunitionandperhapssomeweaponstoSyrianoppositionforcesontheground.Healsoendorsedtheideaforan
increasedaircampaignfromanairbaseinTurkey,althoughimportantdetailsstillneedtobeworkedout.

MembersoftheIraqimilitarytrainedinBaghdadinJuly,duringavisitbyDefenseSecretaryAshtonB.Carter.AtanewsconferenceonFriday,President
ObamasaidcriticsofhisSyriapolicyofferedonlyhalf-bakedideasasalternatives.NewsAnalysis:SyriaExposesSplitBetweenObamaandClintonOCT.3,
2015

PresidentVladimirV.PutinofRussia,inParisonFridayforasummitmeetingwithWesternleadersonUkraine.Thatconflicthaslatelybeenovershadowedby
theinterventioninSyria.

Together,thesemeasuresareintendedtoempower3,000to5,000Arabfighterswhowouldjoinmorethan20,000Kurdishcombatantsinanoffensivebacked
bydozensofcoalitionwarplanestopressureRaqqa,theIslamicStatesmainstrongholdinSyria.PlansarealsomovingforwardtohaveSyrianopposition
fighterssealanimportant60-milepartofthecountrysborderwithTurkeytocutoffcriticalsupplylinesoftheIslamicState,alsoknownasISISorISIL.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/05/world/middleeast/us-aims-to-put-more-pressure-on-isis-in-syria.html

IncursionintoTurkishairspace

RussianSu-30SM,Su-24violateTurkishairspace.FlankerlocksonTuAFF-16for+5minutes

http://theaviationist.com/2015/10/05/russian-su-30sm-su-24-violate-turkish-airspace-flanker-locks-on-tuaf-f-16-for-5-minutes/

Syriaconflict:Turkishjets'interceptRussianplane'

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34441201

TwoTurkishfighterjetsharassedonSyrianborder:Army

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/two-turkish-fighter-jets-harassed-on-syrian-border-army.aspx?pageID=238&nID=89403&NewsCatID=352

RussiasaysviolationofTurkishairspacewasnavigationerror

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/Default.aspx?pageID=238&nID=89387&NewsCatID=352

Russia:BadWeatherCausedJetToViolateTurkishAirspace

http://www.defensenews.com/story/defense/international/europe/2015/10/05/russia-bad-weather-caused-jet-violate-turkish-airspace/73394304/

NATOSecretaryGeneralonviolationsofTurkishairspacebyRussiancombataircraft,5OCT2015

http://youtu.be/vJnJjK2MG40

StatementbytheNorthAtlanticCouncilonincursionsintoTurkeysairspacebyRussianaircraft

http://nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_123392.htm

Syriawarexplained

Viewpoint:West'walkingintoabyss'onSyria

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-34371501

Syriaexplainer:thealliesandtheenemies

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/9a55afe2-6b49-11e5-aca9-d87542bf8673.html#axzz3njedbMqz

Iran

U.S.enforcementofIranarmsembargoslippedduringnucleartalks:sources

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/05/us-iran-sanctions-enforcement-insight-idUSKCN0RZ09O20151005

____________________________

NicholasMarsh

ResearchFellow

PeaceResearchInstituteOslo(PRIO)

HausmansGate7

0186Oslo

Norway

email:nic@prio.no

telephone:+4722547772

skype:nicholas.james.marsh
web:www.nisat.org

twitter:@NisatPrio

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:MartaBurachok<marta.burachok@gmail.com>
Date:Mon,Oct5,2015at10:07PM
Subject:Syriaconflict:TurkeysummonsRussianambassadorasecondtime-BBCNews
To:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34450827

Syriaconflict:TurkeysummonsRussianambassadorasecond
time

EPATheRussiandefenceministrypublishedfootageofitsstrikesonMonday,includingsitesbeinghitbybombs(topleft)

TurkeyhasagainsummonedtheRussianambassadorafterasecondviolationofitsairspacebyaRussianwarplaneoperatinginSyria
intwodays.

ItdidthesameafterthefirstviolationonSaturday,afterwhichtwoTurkishF-16jetswerescrambled.

TurkeysaidthesecondviolationoccurredonSunday.

NatohasurgedRussiatoendairstrikes"ontheSyrianoppositionandcivilians".RussiasaysitistargetingIslamicStateandotherIslamists.

RussiasaidSaturday'sviolationwasforjustafewsecondsandduetopoorweather.IthasnotofficiallyreactedtoSunday'sincident.

Saturday'sinterceptiontookplacenearYayladagiinthesouthernHatayregion,Turkeysays.

AstatementbyNato's28members,whichincludeTurkey,warnedof"theextremedangerofsuchirresponsiblebehaviour"andurgedRussia"to
ceaseanddesist".

USSecretaryofStateJohnKerrysaidTurkeywouldhavebeenwithinitsrightstoshootthejetsdown.

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:alexander<lesykb@hotmail.com>
Date:Mon,Oct5,2015at10:33PM
Subject:UkeNewsUpdate#813['Unacceptable'RussianIncursion']
To:wazWAZ<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,"drdenny324@gmail.com"<drdenny324@gmail.com>,31MORE

NATODenounces'Unacceptable'RussianIncursionIntoTurkey
Reuters

Oct.05201510:36

TheUnitedStatesanditsNATOalliesdenouncedRussiaonMondayforviolatingTurkishairspacealongthefrontierwithSyria,andAnkarathreatened
torespondifprovokedagain,raisingtheprospectofdirectconfrontationbetweentheColdWarenemies.

NATOsummonedtheambassadorsofits28memberstatesforanemergencymeetingtorespondtowhatSecretary-GeneralJensStoltenberg
called"unacceptableviolationsofTurkishairspace."

Moscow'sunexpectedmovelastweektolaunchairstrikesinSyriahasbroughtthegreatestthreatofanaccidentalclashbetweenRussianand
WesternforcessincetheColdWar.

RussianwarplanesandthoseoftheUnitedStatesanditsalliesarenowflyingcombatmissionsoverthesamecountryforthefirsttimesinceWorld
WarII,withMoscowrepeatedlytargetinginsurgentstrainedandarmedbyWashington'sallies.

TurkeyisoneofAssad'sfiercestfoesintheregion,hasbyfarthebiggestarmyontheborderwithSyriaandhastakeninthelargestnumberof
refugees.

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/nato-denounces-unacceptable-russian-incursion-into-turkey/536980.html

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>
Date:Mon,Oct5,2015at8:12PM
Subject:BlackSwan>TurkeyThreatenstoShootDownRussianPlanesthatStrayfromSyria(OHBOY!!!)[ED:THATISWD'S"OHBOY!!"]
To:WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>,wolodymyrzarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>,WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

TurkeyThreatenstoShootDownRussianPlanesthatStrayfromSyria

TheairovertheSyrian-Turkishborderisgettingcrowdedwithwarplanes,andtensionsaregrowing.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/10/05/turkey-threatens-to-shoot-down-russian-planes-that-stray-from-syria.html?via=ios

From:WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>
Date:Mon,Oct5,2015at10:02PM
Subject:PutinreportedlysettouseRussiangroundtroopstobackupAssad'sforcesinSyriavs.NOplansforRUconbattroopsinSyriafornow
(60MInutesLastSunday)
To:WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>,wolodymyrzarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>,WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

Escalation:PutinreportedlysettouseRussiangroundtroopstobackupAssadsforcesinSyria

http://hotair.com/archives/2015/10/05/escalation-putin-reportedly-set-to-use-russian-ground-troops-to-back-up-assads-forces-in-syria/

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>
Date:Mon,Oct5,2015at6:29PM
Subject:PutinhassentthefearedSpetsnazspecialforcesintoSyriatobailoutAssad
To:WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>,wolodymyrzarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>,WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

PutinhassentthefearedSpetsnazspecialforcesintoSyriatobailoutAssad

21:00,5OCT2015
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/

RussiahassentitscrackspecialtroopsintoSyriatobackupPresidentBasharal-Assadsbidtowipeouthisopposition.

VladimirPutinsfearedSpetsnazunitandacovertparabattalionghostedintothewar-torncountryandarepreparingforanall-outassaultonrebelsfightingthe
regimeincludingmoderateunitssuchasthewestern-backedFreeSyrianArmy.

Amilitarysourcesaidlastnight:Putinsmarinesaretheretoguardtheairbasestheyareusingagainstsabotagebyrebels.ButSpetsnazandair-assaulttroopsare
nottheretoprovidesecuritytostaticobjects,theyareextremelyaggressiveandhighlytrained.

Theyaretheretomopupafterairstrikes,callinairstrikes,goonextremelycovertmissionsagainstrebelsandultimatelywipethemout.

AndtheywillnotbeasaccountableasBritishorUSspecialforces.Theyarethereforonereason,towipeoutanyonethreateningAssad.Byanymeans.And
bydoingthattheywillbeconsolidatingRussiaspositionontheMedandintheMiddleEast.

PutinclaimsthemissionistodefeatISbuthiswarplaneshavebeenhelpingAssadbysmashingrebelpositions.MostofthetargetsinNorthernSyriahavebeen
al-Qaedaaffiliatesorlessextremerebelgroupsopposedtotheleader,someofwhichareCIA-trainedandMI6-backed.

SpetsnazSpecialPurposeSoldiershavebeenjoinedbythe7thAirAssaultMountainDivision.

TheyareamongRussiastoughestandmostshadowytroops,manyofwhomhavefoughtdirtywarsinChechnyawheretheybuiltupadeephatredofjihadists.

TheywentonbloodyrevengemissionsagainstlocaljihadunitstopunishthemforatrocitiesagainstRussiantroopsandcivilians.

AmericahasvowedtostepupitsattacksonISinreactiontoPutinsairstrikesonAssadsopponents.AndNatoyesterdayurgedRussiatoenditsrebelattacks
andfocusonbeatingIS.

SaudiclericscalledonMuslimcountriestobackholywaragainstSyriaanditsIranianandRussianbackers.TheSunni-ruledlandissuspectedofsupportingal-
QaedaandISagainstShiasupportersofAssad.SaudihasjoinedairstrikesonISinSyria.

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>
Date:Mon,Oct5,2015at9:06PM
Subject:Politics:IwilldefendChristianityaroundtheworld,says...VladimirPutin?[OhBOY!!!Nowweareinrealtrouble!!!WD][ED:ANYONEforthe
"AGEOFTHEFALSEPROPHET]
To:WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>,wolodymyrzarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>,WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

Politics:IwilldefendChristianityaroundtheworld,says...VladimirPutin?

ImageCredit:

Publishedby:DanCalabreseonMondayOctober5th,2015

http://www.caintv.com/i-will-defend-christianity-aro

Da.

Afriendofminerespondedtotheheadlineasfollows:"Hitlersaidthesamethingin1933."

Lestyougetconceptsconfused,Idon'tthinkPutinistalkingaboutridinginshirtlessonahorsetodefendtherightsofChristianbakeriesandflorists,nortosave
thewould-bevictimsofChristian-hatinggunmen.Butthethreathereferencesisnotinsiginificant,existingmainlyofcourseintheMiddleEastandcomingfrom
radicalIslamistsources.TheChristianPostreportsthatmanyChristiansinSyriaarepleasedtoseePutininterveningonBasharAssad'sbehalfbecausethey
figuretheirlotisbetterwithAssadthenitwouldlikelybewithwhoevermightreplacehim.ThesubsequentpresentationofPutinasabigsupporterofChristiansin
generalisabitrichtosaytheleast:

Afterdeliveringthefacts,MetropolitanHilarionaskedPutintomakeprotectionanddefenseofChristianityaroundtheglobeamajorpartofhisforeignpolicy.

And,asreportedbyInterfax,Putinreplied,"Youneedn'thaveanydoubtthatthat'sthewayitwillbe,"assuringHilarionthatRussianforeignpolicywoulddefend
Christiansfrompersecutionabroad.
Putin'srecentactionsseemtoconfirmhispromise.Lastweek,PutinvetoedaU.N.motioncallingforSyrianleaderBasharal-Assadtostepdown.Syrian
Christiansreceivedthisasgoodnews.AssadisoftheAlawitesectofIslam.AlawitesandChristiansarebothreligiousminoritiesinSyria.SyrianChristiansfeel
thatsharingthisminoritystatusmeansAssadwillprovidethemwithprotection.ASyrianChristianwomaneventoldTheGlobalPost,"ThankGodforRussia.
WithoutRussiawearedoomed."

PutinhaslongbeenasupporterofChristianityandChristianvalueswithinRussia.HehascalledfortheChurchtoplayalargerroleincitizens'sociallives,better
religionclassesinschools,andtelevisionprogramsemphasizingreligiousvalues.

It'snewstomethatblatantlandgrabs,cronycapitalismandsuppressionofpoliticaldissentwereChristianvalues,butmaybetheRussianBibletranslationsarea
littledifferent.

Buthere'swhatyoucan'tdeny:Peoplewhofeelthreatenedwillgravitatetowardsomeonetheythinkmighthavethestrengthandthetemerity-ifnotnecessarily
thevirtue-toprotectthem.Who'sgoingtodothatinWashington?ObviouslynotBarackObama,whocan'tevenbringhimselftomentionthattheOregonmass
shootertargetedChristians,butwillbeonlytoohappytocastigateChristiansoverstuffthathappenedmorethan1,000yearsago.

Peoplewilllooktoastrongmanwhentheyfeelthereisnovirtuous,principledleaderavailable.YouhearalotofAmericanconservativesofferingexpressionsof
respectforPutinbecause,unlikeObama,he'sseriousandaggressiveinthepursuitofhisgeopoliticalgoals-whicharealwaysintheserviceofRussia'sstrategic
interestsatleastasheseesthem.

I'velongsaidthisisamistake.It'sonethingtogivegrudgingrespecttoyouradversaryforhisobviousskills,butit'squiteanothertocrossthelineintoadmiring
theguyjustbecausehestandsinsuchstarkcontrasttoyourownweakanddisappointingleader.Putinisstillaforceformalevolencearoundtheglobe,aligning
himselfwiththemadmullahsinIran,thedespotinSyriaandeventhemonsterinNorthKorea.Ifhehadhisway,we'dsaythereconstitutionoftheSovietUnion-
anddoesanyonerememberhowthatworkedoutforChristiansthefirsttimearound?

Alsokeepinmind:PutinisorderingbombingraidsinSyria,buthe'snottargetingISISoritsallies.He'stargetingtherebelswhoweretrainedbytheU.S.Tellthe
nextChristianwho'sabouttobebeheadedbyISISthatPutinistheretoprotecthim.

Thebottomlineisthis:ThereisnosubstituteforAmericangloballeadership,andwhenit'sAWOL-asitisrightnow-weoftenmakethemistakeofseeking
subsititutesthatcomeintheformofprettyunsavorycharacters.Andremember:BarackObamamaynotbewillingtostandupforChristians,butGodis.Idon't
alwaysknowhowHe'sgoingtodoit,butI'lltakeHisprotectionoverthatofVladimirPutinanyday-andyoushouldtoo

From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 10/06/201509:33:14AM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
FW:[LATENITERUN][NICMND][ADDMB-AB-WD]Fwd:FW:CeasefireholdingWeaponswithdrawalPeaceprocessSupportforUkraineNATOForcesFinlandSweden
Subject:
CorruptionHybridwarEffectofSyriauponUkraineSyria.....PLUS:RUOverTurkishAirspa...

From:WalterZaryckyj[mailto:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu]
Sent:Monday,October05,20159:19PM
Subject:Fwd:[LATENITERUN][NICMND][ADDMB-AB-WD]Fwd:FW:CeasefireholdingWeaponswithdrawalPeaceprocessSupportforUkraineNATOForces
FinlandSwedenCorruptionHybridwarEffectofSyriauponUkraineSyria.....PLUS:RUOverTurkishAirspa...

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
Date:Tue,Oct6,2015at12:17AM
Subject:[LATENITERUN][NICMND][ADDMB-AB-WD]Fwd:FW:CeasefireholdingWeaponswithdrawalPeaceprocessSupportforUkraine
NATOForcesFinlandSwedenCorruptionHybridwarEffectofSyriauponUkraineSyria.....PLUS:RUOverTurkishAirspaceTwiceRUSpetnazGetting
intotheSyrianMelee
To:RomaHadzewycz<staff@ukrweekly.com>,rl<romashka1@aol.com>

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:NicMarsh<nic@prio.no>
Date:Mon,Oct5,2015at8:21PM
Subject:FW:CeasefireholdingWeaponswithdrawalPeaceprocessSupportforUkraineNATOForcesFinlandSwedenCorruptionHybridwarEffectof
SyriauponUkraineSyria
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

Ceasefiremostlyholding

LatestfromOSCESpecialMonitoringMission(SMM)toUkrainebasedoninformationreceivedasof4October2015

ThesituationinDonetskandLuhanskremainedgenerallycalm.TheSMMheardsomeexplosionsandsmall-armsfire.

http://www.osce.org/ukraine-smm/189801

TwoUkrainiansoldierskilled,fivewoundedinlandmineblastinDonbas

http://www.unian.info/war/1142886-two-ukrainian-soldiers-killed-five-wounded-in-landmine-blast-in-donbas.html

RussianproxiesattackUkrainiantroopsonceovernight

http://www.unian.info/war/1142589-russian-proxies-attack-ukrainian-troops-once-overnight.html

Weaponswithdrawal

OSCEencouragedasrivalsconfirmpullback
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34442127

OSCE:"LPR"militantspullback30tanksfromcontactline

http://www.unian.info/war/1143496-osce-lpr-militants-pull-back-30-tanks-from-contact-line.html

Ukrainestartspull-backoftanks,lightartilleryineast:military

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/05/us-ukraine-crisis-withdrawal-idUSKCN0RZ0SW20151005

WithdrawaloftanksfromdemarcationlinebeginsinLuhanskregion

http://www.unian.info/war/1142898-withdrawal-of-tanks-from-demarcation-line-begins-in-luhansk-region.html

Ukrainianmilitarystartpullingbacksmall-caliberweapons

http://www.unian.info/war/1142848-ukrainian-military-start-pulling-back-small-caliber-weapons.html

Peaceprocess

UkraineinsistsRussiamustcedeborderbyendofyear

http://news.yahoo.com/ukraine-says-russia-must-cede-border-end-115552073.html

The"DNR"and"LC"allowedthetransferofelection

http://tvrain.ru/news/dnr_and_lnr_elections-395680/

SupportforUkraine

UkrainePresidentSaysObamaApprovedSendingNewWeapons

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-04/ukraine-president-says-obama-approved-sending-new-weapons

NATOForces

PolandLaunchesEffortToHelpArmE.EuropeanAllies

http://www.defensenews.com/story/defense/policy-budget/budget/2015/10/04/poland-launches-effort-help-arm-e-european-allies/73148772/

Finland

FinlandbeginsSquadron2020OPVprogramme
http://www.janes.com/article/54985/finland-begins-squadron-2020-opv-programme

Sweden

SwedenConsidersJoiningUK-ledJointExpeditionaryForce

http://www.defensenews.com/story/defense/policy-budget/policy/2015/10/04/sweden-considers-joining-uk-led-joint-expeditionary-force/72746418/

Corruption

HowtoFightCorruptioninUkraine

ByAndersslund

http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/how-to-fight-corruption-in-ukraine

Hybridwar

HowAreSocietiesDefendedAgainstHybridThreats?

http://www.gcsp.ch/News-Knowledge/Publications/How-are-Societies-Defended-against-Hybrid-Threats

EffectofSyriauponUkraine

Briefing:Putin'sTwo-FrontWar

AsRussianairstrikescontinueinSyria,negotiationsonafinalsettlementforUkraineresumeagaininMinskthisweek.

Onthisweek'sPowerVerticalBriefing,wetakealookatthelinkagebetweenRussia'stwoforeignconflicts.TowhatextenthasVladimirPutin'smoveintoSyria
changedtheconversationonUkraine?

http://www.rferl.org/content/briefing-putins-two-front-war/27288819.html

Syria

Refugees

Someforeignleaders'using'Europe'srefugeecrisis:Tusk

ThehugeinfluxofmigrantsintoEuropeisbeingusedbysomeforeignleaderstoweakentheEuropeanUnionpolitically,EUpresidentDonaldTusksaidFriday
inPoland.

http://news.yahoo.com/foreign-leaders-using-europes-refugee-crisis-tusk-225324029.html

PutinsPianos

BystrikingintoSyria,PutinhasmadehispositionclearthattherecanbenoresolutionintheMiddleEastwithoutRussia,andthattoachievethisgoalMoscowis
preparedtobrushasideWashingtonsobjections.HehasdirectlyinsertedRussianpowerintoanissuethatisnowattheheartoftheincreasinglytroubledEU
project:thefloodofmigrantsenteringEuropefromtheMiddleEastdrivenbythewar.

http://www.the-american-interest.com/2015/10/05/putins-pianos/

RussianforcesinSyria

ThelatestU.S.assessmentofMoscow'sactivityinwesternSyriaindicatesRussiahasmovedseveralgroundcombatweaponsandtroopsintotheareato
potentiallybackupSyrianforcesinthefieldplanningtoattackanti-regimeforces,accordingtotwoU.S.defenseofficials.

TheU.S.viewsthemoveasRussia"steppingupitsgroundactivity"inSyriatoattackthoseforces,ratherthanISISelements,accordingtooneoftheofficials.

It'sbelievedtheRussiansarepositioningtheweaponstobeabletosupportaSyriangroundoffensive,theofficialssaid.

Theequipmentincludesseveralpieceofartillery,aswellasfourBM-30multiple-launchrocketsystems--allconsideredtobehighlyaccurateweapons.The
latteriscapableofrapid-firerocketlaunches.

Severalweeksago,RussiamovedabouthalfadozenartillerypiecesintoLatakiaport.

TheU.S.originallyhadthoughtthatmightbefordefenseoftheport,butthelatestmoveisanindicationofpotentialgroundattacksinthecomingdays,theofficial
said.

http://edition.cnn.com/2015/10/05/politics/russia-ground-campaign-syria-isis/index.html

GeolocationandAnalysisofRussianMinistryofDefenceSyriaAirstrikeVideos

http://bellingcat.checkdesk.org/en/story/736

RussianWarshipsinEasternMediterraneantoProtectRussianStrikeFightersinSyria

http://news.usni.org/2015/10/05/russian-warships-in-eastern-mediterranean-to-protect-russian-strike-fighters-in-syria

ZaslonRussiasUltra-SecretiveSpecialOpsinSyria

http://warisboring.com/articles/zaslon-russias-ultra-secretive-special-ops-in-syria/

Russianairforceusinglaser-guidedKH-29LmissilesinSyria:RIA

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/04/us-mideast-crisis-syria-russia-missile-idUSKCN0RY09520151004

RussiaSu-24strikeaircraftinSyriaarmedwithaKh-25(notKh-29)laser-guidedair-to-surface#missile.

http://twitter.com/NickJDWEurope/status/650970238914310144

-24

http://youtu.be/UyeAE_ryCQM

VideoofastrikebyaRussianSU24

[Appearstobeusingunguideddumbbombs.]

InSyriaSpottedKrasuha-4RussianMobileElectronicWarfareSystems

http://defence-blog.com/army/in-syria-spotted-krasuha-4-russian-mobile-electronic-warfare-systems.html

Krasukha-4EWsystemdeployedin#Syria

http://twitter.com/AbraxasSpa/status/650952853322891264

http://tvzvezda.ru/news/vstrane_i_mire/content/201510040007-eoik.htm

JammingtheJihad:RussianElectronicWarfareSystemsSpottedinSyria

http://sputniknews.com/world/20151005/1028033057/syria-russia-electronic-warfare-systems.html#ixzz3nhT5uCdp

RussianandIsraeliaircraftnarrowlyavoiddueloverSyriancoast

http://www.airlive.net/2015/10/alert-russian-and-israeli-aircraft.html

DidaRussianSu-24FencerdropaclusterbomboverAleppo?

http://theaviationist.com/2015/10/05/russian-cluster-bombs-over-aleppo/

VideoRBK-500-SPBE-D

http://youtu.be/b8cO1FKoN8g

KremlinSaysRussianVolunteerForcesWillFightinSyria

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/06/world/europe/nato-russia-warplane-turkey.html?smid=tw-share

http://www.interfax.ru/russia/471231

PossibleRussianvolunteerstofightinSyria.

KadyrovasksPutintoallowChecheninfantrytofightinSyria

http://www.rt.com/politics/317393-this-will-be-holiday-kadyrov/

Effectsofthedeployment

MoscowscuppersUScoalitionplansforno-flyzoneinSyria

AlongsideamodestLatakia-basedcontingentoftwodozenSu-24FencerandSu-25FrogfootjetsplanesdesignedtostrikelandtargetsMoscowhas
deployedassetswhichrendertheprospectofno-flyzonesenforcedbytheUSoritsalliesoverSyriaimpossibletoenact.

Justweeksago,aftermonthsofdiplomacy,officialswereclosetoanagreementonenforcingaerialsafe-zonestoendtheAssadregimesbombingofciviliansin
northernandsouthernSyria,accordingtodiplomatsandmilitaryofficialsintheUS-ledcoalition.TheagreementwasbasedonJordanianandTurkishplans
presentedearlierthisyear.

ManyofficialsbelieveanimminentmovetorampupcoalitionactivityinSyriaprecipitatedtheKremlinssuddeninterventionlatelastmonth.

TheultimatereasonallthisishappeningisbecauseoftherenewedfocusonSyriaandtheneedforsomesortofpoliticalsolutiontheresomethingwhichwe
thoughtwecouldachievebyenforcingno-flyzones,safezones,saidoneseniorEuropeandiplomat.

Butanyhopesofmilitaryco-ordinationwithRussiatoachievethis,eveninthewakeofitsdisruptivedeployment,areswiftlybeingdashed.

NatossuprememilitarycommanderinEurope,USGeneralPhillipBreedlovewarnedlastweekthatthealliancewasworriedaboutanotherA2/ADbubble
beingcreatedintheeasternMediterranean.A2/ADstandsforanti-access,areadenial.

GenBreedlovesfearshavebeenrealisedinthepastdaysasRussiassmalldeploymentoffourSu-30flankerjets,whichareatLatakiasBasselal-Assadair
basehighlymanoeuvreableaircraftdesignedtoshootdownotheraircrafthasbeenaugmentedwithafarmorepowerfularsenal.

RussiasministryofdefenceannouncedonFridaythedeploymentofitsnavycruisertheMoskvatoLatakia.TheMoskvaisarmedwithacomplementof64S-
300ship-to-airmissiles,Russiasmostpowerfulanti-aircraftweapon.

DeploymentofS-300sorothersimilarlysophisticatedsystems,alsoknownastriple-digitSamshaslongbeenoneofthePentagonsbiggestfearsinthe
MiddleEast.TheS-300system,whichhasanoperatingrangeof150km,iscapableofstrikingdownallbutthemostsophisticatedstealthaircraft.Itmeansmost
missionsflownbyWashingtonscoalitionalliesJordan,forexample,usesF-16jetsarenowhighlyvulnerable.EventheUKsdeploymentofTornadosand
TyphoonsattheRoyalAirForcesbaseatAkrotiri,Cyprus,isthreatenedbythemissiles.

TheRussianforcesnowinplacemakeitvery,veryobviousthatanykindofno-flyzoneontheLibyanmodelimposedbytheUSandalliesisnowimpossible,
unlessthecoalitionisactuallywillingtoshootdownRussianaircraft,saysJustinBronk,researchanalystattheRoyalUnitedServicesInstitute.

TheRussiansarenotplayingballatdeconflictiontheyarejustsaying,keepoutofourway.ThecoalitionsoperationsinSyriawillbevastlymorecomplex
fromariskassessmentpointofviewandfromamission-planningpointofview.

EvensurveillancemissionsaboveSyriabyUSandcoalitionaircraftwillbecomplicated.OneNatoairforceofficersaidtheorganisationexpectedtostartseeing
thekindofcoldwartacticsandbrinkmanshipRussiahasrecentlybeenusingintheBaltics.PilotswillbebriefedtoexpectpowerfulRussianradarsystems
lightinguptheiraircraftinshowsofstrength,hesaid

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/cee6fcba-69bf-11e5-8171-ba1968cf791a.html#ixzz3nhTrhZnT

RussiaBombsRescuersinSyria

Double-tapairstrikekillsWhiteHelmet

http://warisboring.com/articles/russia-bombs-rescuers-in-syria/?mc_cid=b9ef6c05fd&mc_eid=7fbc580ab1

Russia'sairstrikesinSyriaareplayingwellathome

http://www.stripes.com/news/europe/russia-s-airstrikes-in-syria-are-playing-well-at-home-1.371767

PerfectconditionsforairstrikesonSyria,saysweatherforecasteronRussianTV

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/oct/05/perfect-weather-for-airstrikes-russian-tv-forecast-sets-sights-on-syria

SplitoverAssad,ArabstatesmumonRussia'sSyriastrikes

http://news.yahoo.com/split-over-assad-arab-states-mum-russias-syria-151908092.html

IraqwouldwelcomeRussianairstrikesagainstISIS

http://www.airforcetimes.com/story/military/2015/10/05/russian-airstrikes-against-isis-welcomed-iraq-islamic-state/73386916/

USresponse

U.S.AimstoPutMorePressureonISISinSyria

PresidentObamalastweekapprovedtwoimportantstepstosettheoffensiveinmotionoverthecomingweeks,officialssaid.Mr.ObamaorderedthePentagon,
forthefirsttime,todirectlyprovideammunitionandperhapssomeweaponstoSyrianoppositionforcesontheground.Healsoendorsedtheideaforan
increasedaircampaignfromanairbaseinTurkey,althoughimportantdetailsstillneedtobeworkedout.

MembersoftheIraqimilitarytrainedinBaghdadinJuly,duringavisitbyDefenseSecretaryAshtonB.Carter.AtanewsconferenceonFriday,President
ObamasaidcriticsofhisSyriapolicyofferedonlyhalf-bakedideasasalternatives.NewsAnalysis:SyriaExposesSplitBetweenObamaandClintonOCT.3,
2015

PresidentVladimirV.PutinofRussia,inParisonFridayforasummitmeetingwithWesternleadersonUkraine.Thatconflicthaslatelybeenovershadowedby
theinterventioninSyria.

Together,thesemeasuresareintendedtoempower3,000to5,000Arabfighterswhowouldjoinmorethan20,000Kurdishcombatantsinanoffensivebacked
bydozensofcoalitionwarplanestopressureRaqqa,theIslamicStatesmainstrongholdinSyria.PlansarealsomovingforwardtohaveSyrianopposition
fighterssealanimportant60-milepartofthecountrysborderwithTurkeytocutoffcriticalsupplylinesoftheIslamicState,alsoknownasISISorISIL.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/05/world/middleeast/us-aims-to-put-more-pressure-on-isis-in-syria.html

IncursionintoTurkishairspace

RussianSu-30SM,Su-24violateTurkishairspace.FlankerlocksonTuAFF-16for+5minutes

http://theaviationist.com/2015/10/05/russian-su-30sm-su-24-violate-turkish-airspace-flanker-locks-on-tuaf-f-16-for-5-minutes/

Syriaconflict:Turkishjets'interceptRussianplane'

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34441201

TwoTurkishfighterjetsharassedonSyrianborder:Army

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/two-turkish-fighter-jets-harassed-on-syrian-border-army.aspx?pageID=238&nID=89403&NewsCatID=352

RussiasaysviolationofTurkishairspacewasnavigationerror

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/Default.aspx?pageID=238&nID=89387&NewsCatID=352

Russia:BadWeatherCausedJetToViolateTurkishAirspace

http://www.defensenews.com/story/defense/international/europe/2015/10/05/russia-bad-weather-caused-jet-violate-turkish-airspace/73394304/

NATOSecretaryGeneralonviolationsofTurkishairspacebyRussiancombataircraft,5OCT2015

http://youtu.be/vJnJjK2MG40

StatementbytheNorthAtlanticCouncilonincursionsintoTurkeysairspacebyRussianaircraft

http://nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_123392.htm

Syriawarexplained

Viewpoint:West'walkingintoabyss'onSyria

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-34371501

Syriaexplainer:thealliesandtheenemies

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/9a55afe2-6b49-11e5-aca9-d87542bf8673.html#axzz3njedbMqz

Iran

U.S.enforcementofIranarmsembargoslippedduringnucleartalks:sources

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/05/us-iran-sanctions-enforcement-insight-idUSKCN0RZ09O20151005

____________________________

NicholasMarsh

ResearchFellow

PeaceResearchInstituteOslo(PRIO)

HausmansGate7

0186Oslo

Norway

email:nic@prio.no

telephone:+4722547772

skype:nicholas.james.marsh
web:www.nisat.org

twitter:@NisatPrio

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:MartaBurachok<marta.burachok@gmail.com>
Date:Mon,Oct5,2015at10:07PM
Subject:Syriaconflict:TurkeysummonsRussianambassadorasecondtime-BBCNews
To:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34450827

Syriaconflict:TurkeysummonsRussianambassadorasecond
time

EPATheRussiandefenceministrypublishedfootageofitsstrikesonMonday,includingsitesbeinghitbybombs(topleft)

TurkeyhasagainsummonedtheRussianambassadorafterasecondviolationofitsairspacebyaRussianwarplaneoperatinginSyria
intwodays.

ItdidthesameafterthefirstviolationonSaturday,afterwhichtwoTurkishF-16jetswerescrambled.

TurkeysaidthesecondviolationoccurredonSunday.

NatohasurgedRussiatoendairstrikes"ontheSyrianoppositionandcivilians".RussiasaysitistargetingIslamicStateandotherIslamists.

RussiasaidSaturday'sviolationwasforjustafewsecondsandduetopoorweather.IthasnotofficiallyreactedtoSunday'sincident.

Saturday'sinterceptiontookplacenearYayladagiinthesouthernHatayregion,Turkeysays.

AstatementbyNato's28members,whichincludeTurkey,warnedof"theextremedangerofsuchirresponsiblebehaviour"andurgedRussia"to
ceaseanddesist".

USSecretaryofStateJohnKerrysaidTurkeywouldhavebeenwithinitsrightstoshootthejetsdown.

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:alexander<lesykb@hotmail.com>
Date:Mon,Oct5,2015at10:33PM
Subject:UkeNewsUpdate#813['Unacceptable'RussianIncursion']
To:wazWAZ<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,"drdenny324@gmail.com"<drdenny324@gmail.com>,31MORE

NATODenounces'Unacceptable'RussianIncursionIntoTurkey
Reuters

Oct.05201510:36

TheUnitedStatesanditsNATOalliesdenouncedRussiaonMondayforviolatingTurkishairspacealongthefrontierwithSyria,andAnkarathreatened
torespondifprovokedagain,raisingtheprospectofdirectconfrontationbetweentheColdWarenemies.

NATOsummonedtheambassadorsofits28memberstatesforanemergencymeetingtorespondtowhatSecretary-GeneralJensStoltenberg
called"unacceptableviolationsofTurkishairspace."

Moscow'sunexpectedmovelastweektolaunchairstrikesinSyriahasbroughtthegreatestthreatofanaccidentalclashbetweenRussianand
WesternforcessincetheColdWar.

RussianwarplanesandthoseoftheUnitedStatesanditsalliesarenowflyingcombatmissionsoverthesamecountryforthefirsttimesinceWorld
WarII,withMoscowrepeatedlytargetinginsurgentstrainedandarmedbyWashington'sallies.

TurkeyisoneofAssad'sfiercestfoesintheregion,hasbyfarthebiggestarmyontheborderwithSyriaandhastakeninthelargestnumberof
refugees.

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/nato-denounces-unacceptable-russian-incursion-into-turkey/536980.html

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>
Date:Mon,Oct5,2015at8:12PM
Subject:BlackSwan>TurkeyThreatenstoShootDownRussianPlanesthatStrayfromSyria(OHBOY!!!)[ED:THATISWD'S"OHBOY!!"]
To:WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>,wolodymyrzarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>,WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

TurkeyThreatenstoShootDownRussianPlanesthatStrayfromSyria

TheairovertheSyrian-Turkishborderisgettingcrowdedwithwarplanes,andtensionsaregrowing.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/10/05/turkey-threatens-to-shoot-down-russian-planes-that-stray-from-syria.html?via=ios

From:WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>
Date:Mon,Oct5,2015at10:02PM
Subject:PutinreportedlysettouseRussiangroundtroopstobackupAssad'sforcesinSyriavs.NOplansforRUconbattroopsinSyriafornow
(60MInutesLastSunday)
To:WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>,wolodymyrzarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>,WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

Escalation:PutinreportedlysettouseRussiangroundtroopstobackupAssadsforcesinSyria

http://hotair.com/archives/2015/10/05/escalation-putin-reportedly-set-to-use-russian-ground-troops-to-back-up-assads-forces-in-syria/

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>
Date:Mon,Oct5,2015at6:29PM
Subject:PutinhassentthefearedSpetsnazspecialforcesintoSyriatobailoutAssad
To:WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>,wolodymyrzarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>,WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

PutinhassentthefearedSpetsnazspecialforcesintoSyriatobailoutAssad

21:00,5OCT2015
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/

RussiahassentitscrackspecialtroopsintoSyriatobackupPresidentBasharal-Assadsbidtowipeouthisopposition.

VladimirPutinsfearedSpetsnazunitandacovertparabattalionghostedintothewar-torncountryandarepreparingforanall-outassaultonrebelsfightingthe
regimeincludingmoderateunitssuchasthewestern-backedFreeSyrianArmy.

Amilitarysourcesaidlastnight:Putinsmarinesaretheretoguardtheairbasestheyareusingagainstsabotagebyrebels.ButSpetsnazandair-assaulttroopsare
nottheretoprovidesecuritytostaticobjects,theyareextremelyaggressiveandhighlytrained.

Theyaretheretomopupafterairstrikes,callinairstrikes,goonextremelycovertmissionsagainstrebelsandultimatelywipethemout.

AndtheywillnotbeasaccountableasBritishorUSspecialforces.Theyarethereforonereason,towipeoutanyonethreateningAssad.Byanymeans.And
bydoingthattheywillbeconsolidatingRussiaspositionontheMedandintheMiddleEast.

PutinclaimsthemissionistodefeatISbuthiswarplaneshavebeenhelpingAssadbysmashingrebelpositions.MostofthetargetsinNorthernSyriahavebeen
al-Qaedaaffiliatesorlessextremerebelgroupsopposedtotheleader,someofwhichareCIA-trainedandMI6-backed.

SpetsnazSpecialPurposeSoldiershavebeenjoinedbythe7thAirAssaultMountainDivision.

TheyareamongRussiastoughestandmostshadowytroops,manyofwhomhavefoughtdirtywarsinChechnyawheretheybuiltupadeephatredofjihadists.

TheywentonbloodyrevengemissionsagainstlocaljihadunitstopunishthemforatrocitiesagainstRussiantroopsandcivilians.

AmericahasvowedtostepupitsattacksonISinreactiontoPutinsairstrikesonAssadsopponents.AndNatoyesterdayurgedRussiatoenditsrebelattacks
andfocusonbeatingIS.

SaudiclericscalledonMuslimcountriestobackholywaragainstSyriaanditsIranianandRussianbackers.TheSunni-ruledlandissuspectedofsupportingal-
QaedaandISagainstShiasupportersofAssad.SaudihasjoinedairstrikesonISinSyria.

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>
Date:Mon,Oct5,2015at9:06PM
Subject:Politics:IwilldefendChristianityaroundtheworld,says...VladimirPutin?[OhBOY!!!Nowweareinrealtrouble!!!WD][ED:ANYONEforthe
"AGEOFTHEFALSEPROPHET]
To:WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>,wolodymyrzarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>,WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

Politics:IwilldefendChristianityaroundtheworld,says...VladimirPutin?

ImageCredit:

Publishedby:DanCalabreseonMondayOctober5th,2015

http://www.caintv.com/i-will-defend-christianity-aro

Da.

Afriendofminerespondedtotheheadlineasfollows:"Hitlersaidthesamethingin1933."

Lestyougetconceptsconfused,Idon'tthinkPutinistalkingaboutridinginshirtlessonahorsetodefendtherightsofChristianbakeriesandflorists,nortosave
thewould-bevictimsofChristian-hatinggunmen.Butthethreathereferencesisnotinsiginificant,existingmainlyofcourseintheMiddleEastandcomingfrom
radicalIslamistsources.TheChristianPostreportsthatmanyChristiansinSyriaarepleasedtoseePutininterveningonBasharAssad'sbehalfbecausethey
figuretheirlotisbetterwithAssadthenitwouldlikelybewithwhoevermightreplacehim.ThesubsequentpresentationofPutinasabigsupporterofChristiansin
generalisabitrichtosaytheleast:

Afterdeliveringthefacts,MetropolitanHilarionaskedPutintomakeprotectionanddefenseofChristianityaroundtheglobeamajorpartofhisforeignpolicy.

And,asreportedbyInterfax,Putinreplied,"Youneedn'thaveanydoubtthatthat'sthewayitwillbe,"assuringHilarionthatRussianforeignpolicywoulddefend
Christiansfrompersecutionabroad.
Putin'srecentactionsseemtoconfirmhispromise.Lastweek,PutinvetoedaU.N.motioncallingforSyrianleaderBasharal-Assadtostepdown.Syrian
Christiansreceivedthisasgoodnews.AssadisoftheAlawitesectofIslam.AlawitesandChristiansarebothreligiousminoritiesinSyria.SyrianChristiansfeel
thatsharingthisminoritystatusmeansAssadwillprovidethemwithprotection.ASyrianChristianwomaneventoldTheGlobalPost,"ThankGodforRussia.
WithoutRussiawearedoomed."

PutinhaslongbeenasupporterofChristianityandChristianvalueswithinRussia.HehascalledfortheChurchtoplayalargerroleincitizens'sociallives,better
religionclassesinschools,andtelevisionprogramsemphasizingreligiousvalues.

It'snewstomethatblatantlandgrabs,cronycapitalismandsuppressionofpoliticaldissentwereChristianvalues,butmaybetheRussianBibletranslationsarea
littledifferent.

Buthere'swhatyoucan'tdeny:Peoplewhofeelthreatenedwillgravitatetowardsomeonetheythinkmighthavethestrengthandthetemerity-ifnotnecessarily
thevirtue-toprotectthem.Who'sgoingtodothatinWashington?ObviouslynotBarackObama,whocan'tevenbringhimselftomentionthattheOregonmass
shootertargetedChristians,butwillbeonlytoohappytocastigateChristiansoverstuffthathappenedmorethan1,000yearsago.

Peoplewilllooktoastrongmanwhentheyfeelthereisnovirtuous,principledleaderavailable.YouhearalotofAmericanconservativesofferingexpressionsof
respectforPutinbecause,unlikeObama,he'sseriousandaggressiveinthepursuitofhisgeopoliticalgoals-whicharealwaysintheserviceofRussia'sstrategic
interestsatleastasheseesthem.

I'velongsaidthisisamistake.It'sonethingtogivegrudgingrespecttoyouradversaryforhisobviousskills,butit'squiteanothertocrossthelineintoadmiring
theguyjustbecausehestandsinsuchstarkcontrasttoyourownweakanddisappointingleader.Putinisstillaforceformalevolencearoundtheglobe,aligning
himselfwiththemadmullahsinIran,thedespotinSyriaandeventhemonsterinNorthKorea.Ifhehadhisway,we'dsaythereconstitutionoftheSovietUnion-
anddoesanyonerememberhowthatworkedoutforChristiansthefirsttimearound?

Alsokeepinmind:PutinisorderingbombingraidsinSyria,buthe'snottargetingISISoritsallies.He'stargetingtherebelswhoweretrainedbytheU.S.Tellthe
nextChristianwho'sabouttobebeheadedbyISISthatPutinistheretoprotecthim.

Thebottomlineisthis:ThereisnosubstituteforAmericangloballeadership,andwhenit'sAWOL-asitisrightnow-weoftenmakethemistakeofseeking
subsititutesthatcomeintheformofprettyunsavorycharacters.Andremember:BarackObamamaynotbewillingtostandupforChristians,butGodis.Idon't
alwaysknowhowHe'sgoingtodoit,butI'lltakeHisprotectionoverthatofVladimirPutinanyday-andyoushouldtoo

From: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 10/08/201501:50:50AM
To: WayneAllensworth<swallen@1scom.net>ChrisBort<chris.bort@gmail.com>
GoodStufffromKotkin:ReviewofMyers(Ultimately,Mr.Putin'stacticalcoupscannotconcealhisfailuretoreviveRussiaasagenuinegreat
Subject:
power)

#3
WallStreetJournal
October6,2015
Russia'sSnarlingStuntman
Russiaisdeclining,withtalentandcapitalinfullflight.Yetdespitethiswretchedhand,VladimirPutinistrumpingthe
West.
BySTEPHENKOTKIN
Mr.Kotkin,authorof"Stalin,"isaPrincetonprofessorandaHooverInstitutionfellowatStanford.

THENEWTSAR
ByStevenLeeMyers
Knopf,572pages,$32.50

Russia'sdeclinecontinues.Beneaththebluster,elitesarejittery.Thepopulaceispridefulbutmiserable.Talent-notjust
capital-isinfullflight.Theregimehasnostrategybeyonditsownsurvival,andVladimirPutinhasbecomeasnarling
stuntmanwithasurgicallyenhancedappearanceandapropaganda-enhancedapprovalrating.

Yetdespitethiswretchedhand,Russia'sautocrathasbeentrumpingtheWest.Justlastweek,afterPresidentObama
gaveaspeechattheUnitedNations,Mr.PutinbeganbombingthepoliticalopponentsoftheSyrianbutcherBasharal-
Assadinthenameofcombating"terrorism."

StevenLeeMyers's"TheNewTsar:TheRiseandReignofVladimirPutin"providesacomprehensivelookatRussia's
would-besaviorandAmerica'snemesis.Muchoftheaccountisfamiliar:thePutinfamily'sshabbycommunalapartment
inpost-WorldWarIILeningradyoungVladimirasanindifferentstudentandcourtyardruffianthesuddendiscipline
instilledbymartialartshisobsessionwiththepopularfilmseries"ShieldandSword"(1968),whichinspiredadreamto
jointheKGB.ThetapontheshoulderthatfulfilledthatdreamcamewhilehewasalawstudentatLeningradState
University.Nextupwasspyschool,acareerpolicingthoughtinLeningradandthenaforeignassignmentinanEast
Germanbackwater.

Mr.Myers,whospentsevenyearsasaNewYorkTimescorrespondentinMoscow,digsthroughanimpressivelywide
rangeofmaterials,gatheringrevealingquotesfromlifelongloyalistsaswellasinsiderswhobrokeranks.Unlikesomany
otherauthorswhotakeonMr.Putin,herefusestocherrypickanecdotesorindulgeindippyconspiracytheories.His
reliable,wealth-of-detailsapproachcapturesthezigsandzagsofMr.Putin'sevolution.

TheimplosionoftheEasternBlocandthenoftheSovietUnionin1989-91meantanewlifeforMr.Putinastopdeputyto
thedemocraticallyelectedmayorofSt.Petersburg,AnatolySobchak.TheKGBoperativetriedtomakeRussia'sversion
ofdemocracywork:WhenrivalsdeployeddirtytrickstofoilSobchak'sre-electioncampaigninthemid-1990s,Mr.Putin
indignantlywrotetoMoscowdemandingthattheKremlintake"decisiveactiontoendtheuseofthelaw-enforcement
authoritiesforpoliticalpurposes."

Hisnaiveappealfellflat,butconnectionssooncatapultedhimintothepresidentialadministrationinMoscow,andin1998
apromotionbyBorisYeltsinmadeMr.PutintheheadoftheKGB'ssuccessoragency.Hisascenttothepresidencyisits
ownsordidtale.

PresidentPutin'sfirstterm(2000-04)brimmedwithhopeandeconomicgrowth.Whenandwhyheabandonedhisefforts
atstructuralreformremainsamatterofcontroversy.

Mr.MyersapprovinglyquotesaletterwrittenbytheimprisonedoilmagnateMikhailKhodorkovskyin2004,inwhichhe
saidthatMr.Putin"isprobablyneitheraliberalnorademocrat,butheisstillmoreliberalanddemocraticthan70percent
ofourcountry'spopulation."ButthisassertionremainsunsubstantiatedbecauseMr.Myers'sbiographydoesn'texamine
Russiansociety.TheauthoralsoseemstolendsomesupporttothepopularnarrativewithinRussiaof"Western
betrayal,"pointingoutthatMr.PutinheldfourmeetingswithPresidentGeorgeW.Bushin2001,andallhegotwasa
week'snoticewhenWashingtonunilaterallyabrogatedtheAnti-BallisticMissileTreaty.Butwhatoftheexperienceof
rebuildingstatepowerinshapingMr.Putin'struculence?WhatoftheperennialconundrumofconfrontingtheWest's
abidingsuperiorityandRussia'sweakness?
FewpeoplewhohavehadabrushwithMr.Putincomeoffwellhere.Afterhisre-electiontoasecondtermin2004,the
investorBillBrowdertoldajournalistthat"peoplewillforgetinsixmonthsthatKhodorkovskyisstillsittinginjail"-andhe
andotherscontinuedtoinvestinthecountry.Similarly,JohnBrowne,thenCEOofBP,ishearddismissingthePutin
regime'sannihilationofMr.Khodorkovsky'sprivateoilcompanyYukoswiththecomment:"Nocountryhascomesofarin
suchashortspaceoftime."(BPlaterpartneredwithRosneft,thecompanythatstoleYukos.)

Mr.MyerslaysbarethehashofGeorgeW.Bush'slook-into-Mr.Putin's-soulRussiapolicy,whichculminatedinthe
consolidationofthepartitionofGeorgiain2008.HethenrecountstheblowupofPresidentBarackObama'sresetRussia
policy.

TheauthorremindsusthatSecretaryofStateHillaryClintonwarnedinDecember2012thatMr.Putin'sproposed
"EurasianUnion"soughttosubjugateitsformerpossessionsandaddedthat"wearetryingtofigureouteffectivewaysto
slowdownorpreventit."Mr.Putinsabotageditforherin2014,whenheseizedCrimeafromUkraine,consolidatinga
strongpro-EuropemajorityinKievandsendingchillsthroughthecapitalsofBelarusandKazakhstan.ButUkraineisnow
dismembered.

Countlesssecondarycharactersareintroducedknowledgeablyhere,butnonecometofull-bloodedlife.Eventhe
protagonistcanseemelusive.ContraMr.Myers,Mr.Putinisnota"tsar."Theambiguityofanysuccessionispotentially
themostdebilitatingaspectofhisrule,asitisforallauthoritarianregimes.Still,Mr.Myers'sportrait-withmaliceasMr.
Putin'sdefiningattribute-isdevastatingpreciselybecauseitisjudiciouslydrawn.

Ultimately,Mr.Putin'stacticalcoupscannotconcealhisfailuretoreviveRussiaasagenuinegreatpower.Atonepoint,
Mr.Myersshows,Mr.Putinhimselfknewbetter."Itseemstoallofus-andIwilladmit,tomesometimesaswell-thatby
imposingstrictorderwithanironfist,wewillallbegintolivebetter,morecomfortably,moresecurely,"Mr.Putinobserved
in2002."Inactualfactthatcomfortwouldveryquicklypassbecausethatironfistwouldveryquicklybegintostrangleus."
From: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 10/03/201501:41:25AM
To: GeneFishel<obolon78@yahoo.com>JohnWilliams<willijp1@yahoo.com>
Subject: MoreevidencewhyMassicotisaneffin'twit(n.b.reactionontheground)

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/2015/10/02/44c1f7fc-6932-11e5-9223-
70cb36460919_story.html?tid=pm_world_pop_b

U.S.willnotdirectlyconfrontRussiainSyria,
Obamasays
PresidentObamahasdecidednottodirectlyconfrontRussiaoveritsnewairoffensiveinSyria,believingthat
PresidentVladimirPutinwillsoonfindhimselfinaSyrianquagmire,buthehasapprovedanewescalationofU.S.
effortsagainsttheIslamicState.

ObamalaidouttheU.S.responsetoRussiasactionsduringameetingwithsenioraidesThursdayevening.Details
werefirmedupinameetingFridaymorningamongnationalsecurityprincipalsattheWhiteHouse,senior
administrationofficialssaid.

Atthesametime,thepresidentalsoapprovedproposals,madepriortothisweeksRussianactions,tostrengthenthe
U.S.fightagainstthemilitants.ThosemeasureswererecommendedbyObamasnewJointChiefsofStaffchairman,
Gen.JosephF.DunfordJr.

TheyincludedirectU.S.weaponsshipments,overlandfromIraq,toSyrianKurdishandArabfighterswhoinrecent
monthshavepushedtheIslamicStatefromamajorportionofnorthernSyriaalongtheTurkishborder.

TheKurdsarenowexpectedtobeginmovingsouthtowardRaqqa,thedefactomilitantcapital,innorth-central
Syria.
U.S.airstrikesarealsoslatedtoincreasewestoftheEuphrates,whereU.S.-backedoppositionforceshavehadlittle
recentsuccessagainsttheIslamicState.ThosestrikesarebeinglaunchedfromIncirlikairbaseinTurkey,where
aircraftfromothercoalitionpartnerswilljoinU.S.planes.

FarfromattackingtheIslamicState,asRussiahassaiditintends,itsthreedaysofairstrikesappeartohavefocused
largelyonoppositionforces,someofthemU.S.-backed,thatarefightingacrosswesternSyriaagainstthearmyof
PresidentBasharal-
Assad,whosegovernmentisbackedbyMoscow.

Obamadidnotresponddirectlytoquestionsaboutwhat,ifanything,hewoulddotohelptheembattledopposition,
whichincludesthousandsoffighterswhohavebeentrainedandarmedovertheyearsbytheCIA,aswellasnon-
IslamicStateextremists.SenioradministrationofficialssaidthattrainingandlimitedsuppliesforthoseinsideSyria
wouldcontinuebutthatthepolicywaslikelytocontinue.

CurrentandformerU.S.officialsvoicedconcernthattheRussianbombingwoulddamageacovertprogramalready
strugglingtogaintractioninthefightagainstAssad.Itisalsolikelytoincreasefrustrationamongtherebelsthatthe
AmericansdontdoasmuchastheRussiansdofortheirsideoftheconflict,saidRobertFord,theformerU.S.
ambassadortoSyriawhoresignedthatpositioninpartoutoffrustrationwithadministrationpolicy.

Rep.AdamSchiff(Calif.),therankingDemocratontheHouseIntelligenceCommittee,saidtheRussianmovereally
upstheantefortheUnitedStates.WedohavegreatreputationalcostsinlettingtheRussiansassertthemselvesand
beseenasamoreforcefulactoronthegroundinSyria.Wealsohaveadeepinterestinprotectingthemoderate
population,andthatsgoingtopushustohavegreaterinvolvement,whichisariskyproposition.
AnydirectmilitaryresponseagainstRussia,aU.S.militaryofficialsaid,wouldprobablyrequirenewpresidential
authorities.ButObama,speakingataWhiteHousenewsconferenceFriday,madeitclearthathehasnointentionof
directlyconfrontingRussianforces.

WerenotgoingtomakeSyriaintoaproxywarbetweentheUnitedStatesandRussia.Thatwouldbeabad
strategyonourpart,Obamasaid.ThisisabattlebetweenRussia,IranandAssadagainsttheoverwhelming
majorityoftheSyrianpeople.OurbattleiswithISIL,hesaid,referringtotheIslamicState.

ObamarespondedangrilytosuggestionsofU.S.weaknessinthefaceofRussianaggression,includingPutins
decisiontolaunchsurpriseairstrikesjusttwodaysaftermeetingwithObamaattheUnitedNations.

Thisisnotsomesuperpowerchessboardcontest,Obamasaid.Mr.PutinhadtogointoSyrianotoutofstrength
butoutofweakness,becausehisclient,Mr.Assad,wascrumbling.

RatherthanbuildingsupportforAssad,aminorityruler,RussiawouldalienateSyriasSunnimajorityandtheSunni-
ruledcountriesintheregionhehasbeentryingtocourt,Obamasaid.

ThepresidentsaidthisattemptbyRussiaandIran,theregimesotherbacker,topropupAssadandtrytopacify
thepopulationisjustgoingtogetthemstuckinaquagmire.Anditwontwork.Andtheywillbethereforawhileif
theydonttakeadifferentcourse.

AtleastoneseniorRussianofficialnotedthatRussiahadlearnedduringitsill-fatedoccupationofAfghanistanduring
the1980sthatairstrikesarenotenoughtoholdterritoryalessontheUnitedStateshasalsolearnedmorerecently
inbothSyriaandIraq.

WithoutanimmediategroundoperationbytheweakenedSyrianarmytocapturebombedoppositionterritory,the
resultsoftheseairstrikeswillbebroughttonaught,Gen.MakhmutGareyev,presidentoftheAcademyofMilitary
Sciences,said,accordingtotheRussiannewsagencyInterfax.

InaconversationThursdaybetweentheU.S.DefenseDepartmentandRussiasDefenseMinistry,arrangedtode-
conflictthecountriesairoperationsoverSyriaandavoidapossiblecollision,theRussiansrequestedU.S.
intelligenceonpossibleIslamicStatetargets,accordingtoasenioradministrationofficial,oneofseveralwho
discussedinternaldiscussionsontheconditionofanonymity.

TheanswerwegaveisthatwecannotcoordinatewithyouifyourefightingtheSyrianopposition....Werenot
goingtomaketheirtaskanyeasieriftheirfightisthewrongfight,theofficialsaid.DuringtheirU.N.conversation,
theofficialsaid,ObamatoldPutinthatifyourenotinterestedinfightingtheIslamicState,whattypeofpossible
engagementcouldtherebebetweenthem?Inhisnewsconference,Obamaalsodefendedhisdecisionstonot
directlyinterveneinSyriascivilwaroverthepastfouryears.AndwhenIhearpeopleofferinguphalf-bakedideas
asiftheyaresolutions,ortryingtodownplaythechallengesinvolvedinthissituationwhatIdliketoseepeople
askis,specifically,precisely,whatexactlywouldyoudo,andhowwouldyoufundit,andhowwouldyousustainit?

Andtypically,whatyougetisabunchofmumbojumbo,hesaid.

WearegoingtocontinuetogoafterISIL.Wearegoingtocontinuetoreachouttoamoderateopposition,Obama
said.

TheCIAhasprovidedthethousandsoffightersithastrainedatsecretbasesinJordanwithcommunications
equipment,intelligencesupportandarms,includingantitankmissiles.ThoseCIA-backedfightersreenteredSyria
acrossthatcountryssouthernborderwithJordan,butmanyhavemadetheirwayintounitsthatarenowarrayed
northandeastofDamascusareasthathavebeenpoundedbyRussianstrikesoverthepastseveraldays.

AformerseniorU.S.intelligenceofficialsaidtheU.S.failuretorespondtothestrikesorbolstersupportforCIA-
trainedunitsislikelytoangerCIAparamilitaryteamsintheregionthathaveforseveralyearschafedatWhiteHouse-
imposedlimitsonthelevelofsupportgiventomoderaterebelgroups.

Thereisahugeamountoffrustrationwiththeindecisionandabilitytocommitbythisadministration,saidaformer
seniorU.S.intelligenceofficialwithextensiveexperienceintheMiddleEast.Theagencyhasaproblem,theformer
officialsaid.U.S.-backedfighterslookattheCIAorDODtrainersasreflectingtheU.S.government.Theybelieve
thatweknowwhatsgoingonandcaninfluencewhatsgoingon.Ifwerenotinfluencingit,itmakestheminsecure.
Theywilldefect,gohomeorjointherefugeestreamheadingtoEurope.

ThecurrentandformerofficialsalsoexpressedconcernthattheRussianstrikeswouldpromptrebelgroupsto
intensifytheireffortstoacquireantiaircraftweaponry,includingsurface-to-airmissilesmunitionstheUnitedStates
hasworkedtokeepoutofSyriaforfearthattheywouldbeseizedbyal-QaedaortheIslamicState.

TheCIAoperationhaslargelyavoidedtheblundersthathavebesettheseparatelyrunPentagonefforttoarmand
trainrebelstofighttheIslamicState,aprogramthathasseenitsfightersquicklycapturedandsurrenderingtheir
weaponstoanal-Qaedaaffiliate.Evenso,theCIAprogramhasfailedtoshiftthecourseoftheconflictinSyria,and
agency-backedfightershavelongcomplainedabouttheU.S.refusaltoprovidemorepowerfulweapons,airsupport
orno-flyzones.

FormersecretaryofstateHillaryRodhamClinton,whoisseekingtheDemocraticpresidentialnomination,said
ThursdaythattheUnitedStatesshouldcreateno-flyzonesandhumanitariancorridorstoprotectciviliansand
moderateanti-
AssadrebelsinSyria.

ObamasaidClintonisnothalf-bakedintermsofherapproachtotheseproblems.But,hesaid,theresa
differencebetweenrunningforpresidentandbeingpresident.Andthedecisionsthatarebeingmadeandthe
discussionsthatImhavingwiththeJointChiefsbecomemuchmorespecificandrequire,Ithink,adifferentkindof
judgment.

Ifandwhenshespresident,thenshellmakethosejudgments,Obamasaid,addingthatthesearetoughcalls.

MissyRyanandStevenMufsoncontributedtothisreport.
From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 10/03/201510:03:51AM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
Subject: FW:[Newpost]WatchthisinterestingvideooftheRussianplanes(withRedStarpaintedover)atworkinSyria

From:GlenHoward[mailto:howard@jamestown.org]
Sent:Friday,October02,20152:59PM
To:AdelBashqawiAhmedHashimJonChickyNickHerasMichaelWSRyanjakekippMatthewCzekajClintonSmullyanJrRob
SpringEerikKrosssocor@jamestown.orgIyadYougharTemuriYakobashviliTraininblankJohnBDunlop
<Bohdan.Kupych@kmcore.com>CharlesLannanRomanMashovets
Subject:Fwd:[Newpost]WatchthisinterestingvideooftheRussianplanes(withRedStarpaintedover)atworkinSyria

Interestingvideo.ArticlenotestheRussianshaveerasedtheRussianflagandREDstarfromtheirfighterplanes.Besuretonote
howRTsaystheRussianpilotsarebeingespeciallycarefulnottohurtcivilians.TheexcellentWSJarticleonthebombing
campaigntodayalsoreportedthattheRussianswereflyingnightraids,inadditiontoflyingduringtheday.Syriansneverflyat
night.

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:TheAviationist<donotreply@wordpress.com>
Date:Fri,Oct2,2015at4:44PM
Subject:[Newpost]WatchthisinterestingvideooftheRussianplanes(withRedStarpaintedover)atworkinSyria
To:howard@jamestown.org

DavidCenciottiposted:"TakealookatwhathappensinsideLatakiaairbase,wheretheRussianAirForcecontingentisbased.
ThefollowingexclusivevideobyRTbringsyouinsideal-AssadInternationalAirport,nearLatakia,whereRussianAirForce
contingent,currentlymadeof"

NewpostonTheAviationist

WatchthisinterestingvideooftheRussianplanes(withRedStarpaintedover)
atworkinSyria
byDavidCenciotti

Takealookatwhathappensinside
Latakiaairbase,wheretheRussianAir
Forcecontingentisbased.
ThefollowingexclusivevideobyRTbringsyouinsideal-AssadInternationalAirport,near
Latakia,whereRussianAirForcecontingent,currentlymadeof36combatplanes,is
based.

ThefootageisextremelyinterestingasitclearlyshowsthesixSu-34Fullbackaircraft
returningfromthefirstcombatsortiesagainstIslamicStatetargetsinSyria.

Acloserlookatthewarplanesprovidestheconfirmationthatalltheaircraft,includingthe
Su-25sandtheSu-34s,wereremovedthestandardRussianAirForcemarkingsandthe
typicalRedStar:mostprobablytheRussiansdon'twanttheirsymboltobeshownoff
alongwiththewreckageofaplaneincaseoneisshotdownorcrashesinSyria.

Bytheway,theinsigniawereoverpaintedontheSu-30SMsandtheSu-24Msaswell,
evenifthesearenotclearlyvisibleinthisvideohowevertherearescreenshotsinthe
socialmediathatprovethesameappliestoFlankersandFencers.

Thisisnotthefirsttimeaircrafttakingpartinrealoperationsarestrippedofftheir
nationalmarkings.UAEF-16sdeployedtoJordantotakepartinOperationInherent
Resolvedidn'twearthenationalflagwhilesomeU.S.dronesdeployedinsensitiveareas
performtheirclandestinemissionsunmarked.

Relatedarticles

NewSatelliteImageunveilsanimpressiveline-upof12RussianSu-25FrogfootattackjetsinSyria!

SatelliteimageshowsfourRussianSu-30SMparkedintheopenairatairfieldinSyria

OnlineflighttrackingprovidesinterestingdetailsaboutRussianairbridgetoSyria

NewvideomayshowRussianIl-78tankerescortedbySu-24FencerjetsoverSyriatoday

Here'showtheRussianAirForcemoved28aircrafttoSyria(almost)undetected

RarevideoshowsRussianAirForceTu-160BlackjackbombersactivityintheArctic

Here'sastunningvideo(includingcockpitfootage)oftheawesomeSukhoiSu-30SM

DavidCenciotti|October2,2015at9:43pm|Tags:Islamicstate,Latakia,RussianAirForce,
Su-34Fullback,SukhoiSu-24,SukhoiSu-25|Categories:RogueStates,Russia,Syria,Waron
ISIS|URL:http://wp.me/p2TYIs-8NQ

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