Clinton 8
Clinton 8
Clinton 8
com>
Senttime: 10/13/201511:21:54AM
To: JohnWillams(ofc)<WilliamsJP@state.gov>EugeneFishel<FishelE@state.gov>
Subject: RiftinObamaadministrationoverPutin-POLITICO
http://www.politico.com/story/2015/10/syria-obama-putin-russia-discord-214677
RiftinObamaadministrationoverPutin
Obama,right,andRussia'sPresidentVladimirPutinposeformembersofthemediabeforeabilateralmeetingattheUnitedNationsheadquarters.|AP
ThepresidentsreluctancetorespondassertivelyissignalingU.S.weaknessandindecision,someofficialssay.
VladimirPutinsinterventioninSyriaiscreatingnewriftsinsideanexhaustedandinsomecasesdemoralizedObamanationalsecurityteam,whereofficialspushingforbolderactionseethe
presidentasstubbornlyunwillingtoassumenewriskashenearshisfinalyearinoffice.
CurrentandformerObamaofficialssaythepresidentsreluctancetorespondmoreassertivelyagainstPutinissignalingU.S.weaknessandindecision.Werejustsoreactive,saidonesenior
administrationofficial.Theresjustthistendencytowaitandseewhatstepsotheractorstake.
PutinsdirectmilitaryinterventionfollowingyearsofindirectsupportforSyrianrulerBasharAssadhasbrokenanymomentumObamahadaftersealinghisnucleardealwithIran.
SecretaryofStateJohnKerryhadhopedtofollowthroughontheagreementbyworkingwithIranandRussiatowinapoliticalsettlementinSyria,agoalthatnowseemsfanciful.Addingtothe
frustrationisthehigh-profilefailureofthePentagonplantotrainandequipmoderateSyrianrebels,whichisbeingdownsized.
Theyreontheirbackfeetrightnow,saidaformerseniorObamaforeignpolicyhand.
ObamahasrecentlyapprovedthesupplyofammunitiontoKurdishandArabfightersinnorthernSyria,andthePentagontrainingprogramisbeingrepurposedtoarmtrustedrebel
commandersinthefield.Midlevelofficialsthroughouttheadministrationhavealsobeenaskedtodustoffoldplans,asoneputit,andbrainstormnewpotentialapproachestoSyriaand
Russia.
Butexpectationsarelowthatthoseeffortswillleadanywhere.SourcesfamiliarwithadministrationdeliberationssaidthatObamasWestWinginnercircleservesasabrickwallagainst
dissentingviews.ThepresidentsmostsenioradvisersincludingNationalSecurityAdviserSusanRiceandWhiteHousechiefofstaffDenisMcDonoughreflectthepresidentswariness
ofescalatedU.S.actionrelatedtoSyriaorRussiaand,officialsfear,failtopushObamatoquestionhisowndeeplyrootedassumptions.SusanandDenischannelhim,saysaformer
administrationofficialwhohaswitnessedthedynamic.
Thatdynamicisnotnew.ButPutinsescalationhascombinedtwoofObamasbiggestforeignpolicyheadachesanewlyaggressiveRussiaandSyriascivilwarintoonethrobbing
migraine.
Inseniormeetings,someofObamastopnationalsecurityofficialshavepressedforabolderresponsetoPutinsmuscle-flexinginSyria.TheyincludeKerry,whohasarguedforestablishinga
no-flyzoneinSyria,anoptionObamarecentlysuggestedishalf-baked.
AformerColdWarnucleardeterrenceexpert,DefenseSecretaryAshCarterhasfrettedthattheU.S.isntstandingupfirmlytoPutin'sprovocations.AndCIADirectorJohnBrennanhas
complainedthatPutinisbombingSyrianrebelfighterscovertlybackedbyhisagencywithseemingimpunity.
Theopticsarethatwerebackingoff,saidaformerObamaofficialwhohandledforeignpolicyissues.Itsnotlikewecantexertpressureontheseguys,butweactlikeweretotally
impotent.
ObamasrefusaltotakefirmeractionagainstMoscowhasincreasinglyisolatedseveralofhisadministrationsRussiaspecialists,whoalmostuniformlytakeaharderlinetowardPutinthandoes
thepresidenthimself.TheyincludeVictoriaNuland,assistantsecretaryofstateforEuropeanandEurasianAffairsCelesteWallander,theNationalSecurityCouncilsseniordirectorforRussia
andEurasiaandEvelynFarkas,deputyassistantsecretaryofdefenseforRussia,UkraineandEurasia.FarkasrecentannouncementthatshewillexittheObamaadministrationthisfallraised
eyebrowsamongofficialsawareofherfrustrationthatObamahasntrespondedmoreforcefullytoPutinsannexationofCrimeaandhissupportforpro-Russianseparatistsinthecountrys
east.(Farkashastoldfriendsthatsheisnotresigningoverpolicydisputes.)
ObamadidfaceapublicchallengeintheformofaninterviewonCBS'60MinutesthatairedSunday,inwhichthepresidentgrewvisiblyannoyedasinterviewerSteveKroftpressedhimon
themodestresultsofhiscampaignagainsttheIslamicStateandonwhetherPutinwassuccessfullychallengingyourleadership.
Standinghisground,ObamarepeatedhisargumentthatitwouldbeamistaketooverreacttoPutin,whohesaysisactingoutofweakness,andthattheSyriamorassdefiesthekindofsilver
bulletsolutionsoughtbyhiscritics.
ThecriticsincreasinglyincludeDemocrats.WhiteHouseofficialsaresaidtohavereactedwithirritationwhenHillaryClintonproposedaSyriano-flyzoneearlierthismonth,lendingcredibility
toanideamainlybackedbyRepublicans.Kerryhasalsopushedforano-flyzoneinnorthernSyriaalongTurkey'sborder,whichcouldprovideahumanitarianhavenforrefugeesbutwould
alsocreateadefactochallengetoRussia'sfreedomintheskies.
ThisisnotthefirsttimeObamahasduginagainstnationalsecurityofficialsurgingbolderaction,bothinSyriaandagainstPutinsRussia.
Inlate2012,Clinton,thensecretaryofstate,joinedCIADirectorDavidPetraeusandDefenseSecretaryLeonPanettainpresentingObamawithaplantoarmandtrainamoderateSyrian
rebelforce.Obamavetoedtheidea.(HedidapproveamodestcovertCIAtrainingprogramin2013aftertheSyrianregimeusedchemicalweapons,andlastyearheapprovedthe$500
millionPentagontrainingprogramthatisbeingdownsizedafterasputteringstart.)
Thepatternrepeatedearlierthisyear,whenaconsensusemergedamongObamastopnationalsecurityadvisers,includingKerryandthen-DefenseSecretaryChuckHagel,thattheU.S.
shouldsupplylethalmilitaryaidtoUkraine,includingshoulder-firedJavelinanti-tankmissiles.DuringhisFebruaryconfirmationhearing,Cartersaidthathe,too,wasverymuchinclinedto
provideheavierweaponstoUkraine.Again,Obamaknockeddowntheidea,worryingthatPutinwouldsimplyfurtherescalateinresponse.
SomeofficialsarguedthatObamashouldkeepthepossibilityofsupplyingoflethalweaponsasacardtoplayagainstPutinintheeventtheRussiantooknewlyprovocativestepswhichhe
nowhasinSyria.
ButtherearenosignsObamaisseriouslyreconsideringtheidea.
ObamastrashtalkInasignofthecomplexitiestheObamateamfaces,fewofficialscanbeeasilyplacedinaneathawkordovebox.Kerry,forinstance,haslongfavoredano-flyzonein
Syria.Buthefrustratestheadministration'sRussiahawks,whoprefertoisolatePutin,withhisreliablebeliefinthebenefitsofcontinueddialoguewithMoscow.
ThatreflectsaviewthatpragmaticengagementwithMoscowisthebestwaytoaccomplishU.S.aims.Thattheorymayhavereceivedalittle-noticedboostearlierthismonth.Whilecritics
pointoutthatPutinbeganairstrikestwodaysafterhissit-downwithObamaattheUnitedNations,therewasunexpectedgoodnewsfromUkrainesoonafter,whenRussian-backedrebels
agreedtopostponedisputedelectionsthatthreatenedafragiletruce.TheelectionshadbeenakeydiscussionpointbetweenObamaandPutininNewYork.Evenso,theRussiahawksbelieve
thatPutinandKerry'sRussiancounterpart,SergeiLavrov,generallystringalongandmisleadtheU.S.
Ontheflipside,manyPentagonofficialswanttheU.S.tomoreactivelycounterRussianambitionsinEuropewhiledoubtingtheefficacyofproposalstotakemoreactioninSyria.Martin
Dempsey,therecentlyretiredchairmanofthejointchiefsofstaff,arguedthattheU.S.shouldconsidersendinglethalaidtoKiev.ButDempseywasavociferousopponentofaSyriano-fly
zone,whichhecalledriskyandsaidcouldcost$1billionpermonthatatimeofPentagonbudgetcuts.
AnewpaperpublishedbytheArmyWarCollegeconcludesthattheRussianinterventioninSyriaisnotnecessarilyamajorsetbackforU.S.policy.
IfeelthatwehaveamuchmoredeeplyheldconcernaboutwhatisgoingoninUkrainethanwedoaboutpullingarabbitoutofahatinSyria,saidthepaper'sauthor,W.AndrewTerrill,a
professorattheWarCollegesStrategicStudiesInstituteandaretiredArmylieutenantcolonel.TheLebanesecivilwarlasted14yearsandwasverydifficulttostop.
OthermilitaryofficialsbelievetheU.S.canstanduptoPutinwithoutgettingentangledinSyriabycontestingRussianaggressioninothertheaters,fromtheArctictoEasternEuropeandthe
Baltics,whereRussiahassteppedupprovocativeoverflightschallengingforeignairspace.InaspeechlastweekattheAtlanticCouncil,aWashingtonthinktank,NATOstopnavalcommander
proposedastrongerU.S.responsetotherecentdeploymentofsixRussianKilo-classattacksubmarinestotheBlackSea.
Thecommander,U.S.NavyAdm.MarkFerguson,calledforamoreactivealliedresponse,includingidentifyingnewbaseswheretheU.S.NavysP-8Poseidonanti-submarineaircraftcould
operate,sayingthatyoudonotgetbettersittinginportdoingsyntheticexercises.
It'sunclearwhetherObamaisentertainingthatidea.ButevenofficialswhogrumblethatRiceandMcDonoughdiscouragedissentingviewssometimesbyinvokingexaggerated,straw-man
versionsofrecommendationsconcedethatthereisplentyofdiscussioninnationalsecuritymeetingsattheWhiteHouse.Justlittleaction.
Asoneoftheformerofficialsputit:Thisisdrivenbyoneman,andonemanonly,anditisBarackObama.
BryanBendercontributedtothisreport.
Authors:
ShowComments
From: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 10/08/201501:49:19AM
To: JohnWillams(ofc)<WilliamsJP@state.gov>EugeneFishel<FishelE@state.gov>
BCc: acrotto@us-state.osis.gov
GoodStufffromKotkin:hisreviewofMeyersbook(Ultimately,Mr.Putin'stacticalcoupscannotconcealhisfailuretoreviveRussiaasagenuine
Subject:
greatpower)
#3
WallStreetJournal
October6,2015
Russia'sSnarlingStuntman
Russiaisdeclining,withtalentandcapitalinfullflight.Yetdespitethiswretchedhand,VladimirPutinistrumpingthe
West.
BySTEPHENKOTKIN
Mr.Kotkin,authorof"Stalin,"isaPrincetonprofessorandaHooverInstitutionfellowatStanford.
THENEWTSAR
ByStevenLeeMyers
Knopf,572pages,$32.50
Russia'sdeclinecontinues.Beneaththebluster,elitesarejittery.Thepopulaceispridefulbutmiserable.Talent-notjust
capital-isinfullflight.Theregimehasnostrategybeyonditsownsurvival,andVladimirPutinhasbecomeasnarling
stuntmanwithasurgicallyenhancedappearanceandapropaganda-enhancedapprovalrating.
Yetdespitethiswretchedhand,Russia'sautocrathasbeentrumpingtheWest.Justlastweek,afterPresidentObama
gaveaspeechattheUnitedNations,Mr.PutinbeganbombingthepoliticalopponentsoftheSyrianbutcherBasharal-
Assadinthenameofcombating"terrorism."
StevenLeeMyers's"TheNewTsar:TheRiseandReignofVladimirPutin"providesacomprehensivelookatRussia's
would-besaviorandAmerica'snemesis.Muchoftheaccountisfamiliar:thePutinfamily'sshabbycommunalapartment
inpost-WorldWarIILeningradyoungVladimirasanindifferentstudentandcourtyardruffianthesuddendiscipline
instilledbymartialartshisobsessionwiththepopularfilmseries"ShieldandSword"(1968),whichinspiredadreamto
jointheKGB.ThetapontheshoulderthatfulfilledthatdreamcamewhilehewasalawstudentatLeningradState
University.Nextupwasspyschool,acareerpolicingthoughtinLeningradandthenaforeignassignmentinanEast
Germanbackwater.
Mr.Myers,whospentsevenyearsasaNewYorkTimescorrespondentinMoscow,digsthroughanimpressivelywide
rangeofmaterials,gatheringrevealingquotesfromlifelongloyalistsaswellasinsiderswhobrokeranks.Unlikesomany
otherauthorswhotakeonMr.Putin,herefusestocherrypickanecdotesorindulgeindippyconspiracytheories.His
reliable,wealth-of-detailsapproachcapturesthezigsandzagsofMr.Putin'sevolution.
TheimplosionoftheEasternBlocandthenoftheSovietUnionin1989-91meantanewlifeforMr.Putinastopdeputyto
thedemocraticallyelectedmayorofSt.Petersburg,AnatolySobchak.TheKGBoperativetriedtomakeRussia'sversion
ofdemocracywork:WhenrivalsdeployeddirtytrickstofoilSobchak'sre-electioncampaigninthemid-1990s,Mr.Putin
indignantlywrotetoMoscowdemandingthattheKremlintake"decisiveactiontoendtheuseofthelaw-enforcement
authoritiesforpoliticalpurposes."
Hisnaiveappealfellflat,butconnectionssooncatapultedhimintothepresidentialadministrationinMoscow,andin1998
apromotionbyBorisYeltsinmadeMr.PutintheheadoftheKGB'ssuccessoragency.Hisascenttothepresidencyisits
ownsordidtale.
PresidentPutin'sfirstterm(2000-04)brimmedwithhopeandeconomicgrowth.Whenandwhyheabandonedhisefforts
atstructuralreformremainsamatterofcontroversy.
Mr.MyersapprovinglyquotesaletterwrittenbytheimprisonedoilmagnateMikhailKhodorkovskyin2004,inwhichhe
saidthatMr.Putin"isprobablyneitheraliberalnorademocrat,butheisstillmoreliberalanddemocraticthan70percent
ofourcountry'spopulation."ButthisassertionremainsunsubstantiatedbecauseMr.Myers'sbiographydoesn'texamine
Russiansociety.TheauthoralsoseemstolendsomesupporttothepopularnarrativewithinRussiaof"Western
betrayal,"pointingoutthatMr.PutinheldfourmeetingswithPresidentGeorgeW.Bushin2001,andallhegotwasa
week'snoticewhenWashingtonunilaterallyabrogatedtheAnti-BallisticMissileTreaty.Butwhatoftheexperienceof
rebuildingstatepowerinshapingMr.Putin'struculence?WhatoftheperennialconundrumofconfrontingtheWest's
abidingsuperiorityandRussia'sweakness?
FewpeoplewhohavehadabrushwithMr.Putincomeoffwellhere.Afterhisre-electiontoasecondtermin2004,the
investorBillBrowdertoldajournalistthat"peoplewillforgetinsixmonthsthatKhodorkovskyisstillsittinginjail"-andhe
andotherscontinuedtoinvestinthecountry.Similarly,JohnBrowne,thenCEOofBP,ishearddismissingthePutin
regime'sannihilationofMr.Khodorkovsky'sprivateoilcompanyYukoswiththecomment:"Nocountryhascomesofarin
suchashortspaceoftime."(BPlaterpartneredwithRosneft,thecompanythatstoleYukos.)
Mr.MyerslaysbarethehashofGeorgeW.Bush'slook-into-Mr.Putin's-soulRussiapolicy,whichculminatedinthe
consolidationofthepartitionofGeorgiain2008.HethenrecountstheblowupofPresidentBarackObama'sresetRussia
policy.
TheauthorremindsusthatSecretaryofStateHillaryClintonwarnedinDecember2012thatMr.Putin'sproposed
"EurasianUnion"soughttosubjugateitsformerpossessionsandaddedthat"wearetryingtofigureouteffectivewaysto
slowdownorpreventit."Mr.Putinsabotageditforherin2014,whenheseizedCrimeafromUkraine,consolidatinga
strongpro-EuropemajorityinKievandsendingchillsthroughthecapitalsofBelarusandKazakhstan.ButUkraineisnow
dismembered.
Countlesssecondarycharactersareintroducedknowledgeablyhere,butnonecometofull-bloodedlife.Eventhe
protagonistcanseemelusive.ContraMr.Myers,Mr.Putinisnota"tsar."Theambiguityofanysuccessionispotentially
themostdebilitatingaspectofhisrule,asitisforallauthoritarianregimes.Still,Mr.Myers'sportrait-withmaliceasMr.
Putin'sdefiningattribute-isdevastatingpreciselybecauseitisjudiciouslydrawn.
Ultimately,Mr.Putin'stacticalcoupscannotconcealhisfailuretoreviveRussiaasagenuinegreatpower.Atonepoint,
Mr.Myersshows,Mr.Putinhimselfknewbetter."Itseemstoallofus-andIwilladmit,tomesometimesaswell-thatby
imposingstrictorderwithanironfist,wewillallbegintolivebetter,morecomfortably,moresecurely,"Mr.Putinobserved
in2002."Inactualfactthatcomfortwouldveryquicklypassbecausethatironfistwouldveryquicklybegintostrangleus."
From: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 10/08/201501:49:19AM
To: JohnWillams(ofc)<WilliamsJP@state.gov>EugeneFishel<FishelE@state.gov>
BCc: acrotto@us-state.osis.gov
GoodStufffromKotkin:hisreviewofMeyersbook(Ultimately,Mr.Putin'stacticalcoupscannotconcealhisfailuretoreviveRussiaasagenuine
Subject:
greatpower)
#3
WallStreetJournal
October6,2015
Russia'sSnarlingStuntman
Russiaisdeclining,withtalentandcapitalinfullflight.Yetdespitethiswretchedhand,VladimirPutinistrumpingthe
West.
BySTEPHENKOTKIN
Mr.Kotkin,authorof"Stalin,"isaPrincetonprofessorandaHooverInstitutionfellowatStanford.
THENEWTSAR
ByStevenLeeMyers
Knopf,572pages,$32.50
Russia'sdeclinecontinues.Beneaththebluster,elitesarejittery.Thepopulaceispridefulbutmiserable.Talent-notjust
capital-isinfullflight.Theregimehasnostrategybeyonditsownsurvival,andVladimirPutinhasbecomeasnarling
stuntmanwithasurgicallyenhancedappearanceandapropaganda-enhancedapprovalrating.
Yetdespitethiswretchedhand,Russia'sautocrathasbeentrumpingtheWest.Justlastweek,afterPresidentObama
gaveaspeechattheUnitedNations,Mr.PutinbeganbombingthepoliticalopponentsoftheSyrianbutcherBasharal-
Assadinthenameofcombating"terrorism."
StevenLeeMyers's"TheNewTsar:TheRiseandReignofVladimirPutin"providesacomprehensivelookatRussia's
would-besaviorandAmerica'snemesis.Muchoftheaccountisfamiliar:thePutinfamily'sshabbycommunalapartment
inpost-WorldWarIILeningradyoungVladimirasanindifferentstudentandcourtyardruffianthesuddendiscipline
instilledbymartialartshisobsessionwiththepopularfilmseries"ShieldandSword"(1968),whichinspiredadreamto
jointheKGB.ThetapontheshoulderthatfulfilledthatdreamcamewhilehewasalawstudentatLeningradState
University.Nextupwasspyschool,acareerpolicingthoughtinLeningradandthenaforeignassignmentinanEast
Germanbackwater.
Mr.Myers,whospentsevenyearsasaNewYorkTimescorrespondentinMoscow,digsthroughanimpressivelywide
rangeofmaterials,gatheringrevealingquotesfromlifelongloyalistsaswellasinsiderswhobrokeranks.Unlikesomany
otherauthorswhotakeonMr.Putin,herefusestocherrypickanecdotesorindulgeindippyconspiracytheories.His
reliable,wealth-of-detailsapproachcapturesthezigsandzagsofMr.Putin'sevolution.
TheimplosionoftheEasternBlocandthenoftheSovietUnionin1989-91meantanewlifeforMr.Putinastopdeputyto
thedemocraticallyelectedmayorofSt.Petersburg,AnatolySobchak.TheKGBoperativetriedtomakeRussia'sversion
ofdemocracywork:WhenrivalsdeployeddirtytrickstofoilSobchak'sre-electioncampaigninthemid-1990s,Mr.Putin
indignantlywrotetoMoscowdemandingthattheKremlintake"decisiveactiontoendtheuseofthelaw-enforcement
authoritiesforpoliticalpurposes."
Hisnaiveappealfellflat,butconnectionssooncatapultedhimintothepresidentialadministrationinMoscow,andin1998
apromotionbyBorisYeltsinmadeMr.PutintheheadoftheKGB'ssuccessoragency.Hisascenttothepresidencyisits
ownsordidtale.
PresidentPutin'sfirstterm(2000-04)brimmedwithhopeandeconomicgrowth.Whenandwhyheabandonedhisefforts
atstructuralreformremainsamatterofcontroversy.
Mr.MyersapprovinglyquotesaletterwrittenbytheimprisonedoilmagnateMikhailKhodorkovskyin2004,inwhichhe
saidthatMr.Putin"isprobablyneitheraliberalnorademocrat,butheisstillmoreliberalanddemocraticthan70percent
ofourcountry'spopulation."ButthisassertionremainsunsubstantiatedbecauseMr.Myers'sbiographydoesn'texamine
Russiansociety.TheauthoralsoseemstolendsomesupporttothepopularnarrativewithinRussiaof"Western
betrayal,"pointingoutthatMr.PutinheldfourmeetingswithPresidentGeorgeW.Bushin2001,andallhegotwasa
week'snoticewhenWashingtonunilaterallyabrogatedtheAnti-BallisticMissileTreaty.Butwhatoftheexperienceof
rebuildingstatepowerinshapingMr.Putin'struculence?WhatoftheperennialconundrumofconfrontingtheWest's
abidingsuperiorityandRussia'sweakness?
FewpeoplewhohavehadabrushwithMr.Putincomeoffwellhere.Afterhisre-electiontoasecondtermin2004,the
investorBillBrowdertoldajournalistthat"peoplewillforgetinsixmonthsthatKhodorkovskyisstillsittinginjail"-andhe
andotherscontinuedtoinvestinthecountry.Similarly,JohnBrowne,thenCEOofBP,ishearddismissingthePutin
regime'sannihilationofMr.Khodorkovsky'sprivateoilcompanyYukoswiththecomment:"Nocountryhascomesofarin
suchashortspaceoftime."(BPlaterpartneredwithRosneft,thecompanythatstoleYukos.)
Mr.MyerslaysbarethehashofGeorgeW.Bush'slook-into-Mr.Putin's-soulRussiapolicy,whichculminatedinthe
consolidationofthepartitionofGeorgiain2008.HethenrecountstheblowupofPresidentBarackObama'sresetRussia
policy.
TheauthorremindsusthatSecretaryofStateHillaryClintonwarnedinDecember2012thatMr.Putin'sproposed
"EurasianUnion"soughttosubjugateitsformerpossessionsandaddedthat"wearetryingtofigureouteffectivewaysto
slowdownorpreventit."Mr.Putinsabotageditforherin2014,whenheseizedCrimeafromUkraine,consolidatinga
strongpro-EuropemajorityinKievandsendingchillsthroughthecapitalsofBelarusandKazakhstan.ButUkraineisnow
dismembered.
Countlesssecondarycharactersareintroducedknowledgeablyhere,butnonecometofull-bloodedlife.Eventhe
protagonistcanseemelusive.ContraMr.Myers,Mr.Putinisnota"tsar."Theambiguityofanysuccessionispotentially
themostdebilitatingaspectofhisrule,asitisforallauthoritarianregimes.Still,Mr.Myers'sportrait-withmaliceasMr.
Putin'sdefiningattribute-isdevastatingpreciselybecauseitisjudiciouslydrawn.
Ultimately,Mr.Putin'stacticalcoupscannotconcealhisfailuretoreviveRussiaasagenuinegreatpower.Atonepoint,
Mr.Myersshows,Mr.Putinhimselfknewbetter."Itseemstoallofus-andIwilladmit,tomesometimesaswell-thatby
imposingstrictorderwithanironfist,wewillallbegintolivebetter,morecomfortably,moresecurely,"Mr.Putinobserved
in2002."Inactualfactthatcomfortwouldveryquicklypassbecausethatironfistwouldveryquicklybegintostrangleus."
From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 10/01/201508:35:47AM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
Subject: FW:BBCCommentary:HowPutinBlindsidedtheUSOverSyria
From:GlenHoward[mailto:howard@jamestown.org]
Sent:Wednesday,September30,20155:41PM
To:Prof.S.FredStarrSEndersWimbushJohnBDunlopPavelBaevPavelFelgenhauerJacobKippTimothyThomasMatthewCzekajClintonSmullyanJrRobSpring
WillemdeVogelBillRichardsPeterWoodPeterMattisTemuriYakobashviliDanielPFataalan.merbaum@lmco.comCharlesLannanAhmedHashimOmarHumadiZuhair
HumadiHamzaShareefAdelBashqawiMichaelE.KavoukjianktmcfarlandWladimirvanWilgenburg
Subject:BBCCommentary:HowPutinBlindsidedtheUSOverSyria
Greatcommentary.NotesaftermakingadealonMondayandagreeingtocoordinatewithTheUS,Moscowlaunchesairstrikeswithlittlenotice.Tomakemattersworse,
insteadofaphonecallaRussian3stargeneraldrivestoUSembassyinBaghdad,knocksonthedoorandsaysthebombingstartsin1hourandalertyourguys.
Glen
US&Canada
HowPutinblindsidedtheUSoverSyria
3hoursago
JonSopelNorthAmericaeditor
FromthesectionUS&Canada
57comments
ImagecopyrightAPImagecaptionTheUNhandshakemaskedaraftofdifferences
ThereshouldbenosurprisesaboutwhattheRussianshavedone.
TheyhaveconsistentlymadecleartheirsupportforPresidentAssad.ItwashardlyagreatsecretthattheyhadmovedmilitaryassetsintoSyria-and
theRussianpilotshadn'tflowntheirfighteraircraftovertotheEasternMediterraneantoearnsomeextraairmiles.
PresidentVladimirPutinhadameetingwithPresidentBarackObamaonMondaynighttoexplainwhatRussia'splanwas-andalthoughtherewere
profounddifferences,USofficialssaidtheyunderstoodbetterwhatRussia'sintentionswere.
Andyet.
Isn'ttheresomethingtotallyjaw-dropping,gob-smacking,eyebrow-arching,eartwitchinglyextraordinary-andnottomention,casual-abouttheway
theAmericanslearntaboutRussianplans?
ItbeganwithaphonecallfromaRussiandiplomattohiscounterpartinBaghdadtosay"we'vegotsomethinginterestingtotellyou".
Thenathree-starRussiangeneralleavestheRussianembassycompoundandknocksonthedooroftheAmericanone,andaskstoseetheUSmilitary
attache.
HetellstheAmericanmilitarymanthatbombingstartsinanhour,soyou'dbettergetoutofSyrianairspacenowandmoveanyassetsyouhaveoffthe
ground.And60minuteslater,thebombingstarted.
Wow.TosaytheAmericanswereblindsidedbythisunorthodoxlineofcommunicationistoputitmildly.Havinghadtheir"cleartheair"meetingon
Mondaynighttherewasananticipationthatthoughtheremightbebigpolicydifferences,therewouldbeadegreeofco-ordinationandopenness.
Justconsiderthis-therisksofaUSfighterplanerunningintoaRussianonewithunimaginableconsequenceshasjustratchetedup.Aretheygoingto
takeitonturnstobombtargets?Onedayit'stheAmericansandtheirallies,thenextdayit'stheRussians.Youdon'tneedtobeamilitaryhistorianto
knowthatthatisnotgoingtofly(sotospeak).
Andthatisbeforewegettothestrategicobjectives.
ImagecopyrightAPImagecaptionMoscowsaiditwasstrikingIslamicStatepositionsbuttheUSbelievestheywereattackingoppositiongroups
AretheRussianstryingtodestroyIS/Isis/Isil/DaeshoraretheytryingtopropupPresidentAssad?TheAmericansseethetwoasverydifferent,the
Russianslessso.
Ontheevidenceofoneday'sbombingitlookstobeverymuchthelatter.ThetargetofRussianordnancehasbeeninplaceswhereIShasno
presence.
Inotherwords,otherrebelgroups-anyrebelgroups-opposedtoPresidentAssadarebeingtargeted.Andthatraisesanotherhugequestion.Whatif
theRussiansstarthittingUSbackedandarmedrebelgroups?Thatisnotgoingtoendwell.
AndwhoknowshowmanyUSspecialforcestheremightbeonthegroundhelpingthoserebelgroups?Whatiftheyfindthemselvescomingunderfire
-dotheycallinUScloseairsupporttoseeofftheirRussianattackers?
TheAmericansclearlycameawaywiththeunderstandingaftertheMondaynighttte-a-ttethattheyhadanagreementononething-thatISneeded
tobeattackedanddestroyed,anddisagreementonanother-theroleofPresidentAssadinSyria'sfuturepoliticalsettlement.
ImagecopyrightReutersImagecaptionJohnKerryandSergeyLavrovdiscussedtheconflictonWednesday
Well-anditisdayoneofRussianaction-itlookslikeRussiaisnotdistinguishingbetweendifferentrebelgroups.IfthesegroupsareagainstAssad,
theycouldfindthemselvesinthecrosshairsoftheRussianAirForce.
AshtonCarter,theUSdefencesecretary,saysthereisadangerthatRussiaispouringgasolineontothefire.Healsoinsiststherehavebeennobig
surprisesinwhattheRussianshavedonetoday.Hmm.Idon'tthinktheAmericanshadthewaytodayunfoldedintheirplaybook.
OnceagainVladimirPutinhasseeminglyoutmanoeuvredtheWhiteHouse.AseniorUSdiplomatsaidtometheotherdaythatwhenObamaleaves
officehewillberoundlyapplaudedforthewayhenegotiatedandultimatelydeliveredadealonIran,butwillbejustifiablyvilifiedforthevacillationand
vaguenessoverhisSyriapolicy.
Putin,ontheotherhand,hasbeentotallyconsistent.HewantstoprotectRussia'sonlydeepwaterportontheEasternMediterraneanandwilldowhat
ittakestoprotectit.
SonowitlooksliketheUSadministrationhasachoicetomake-isitgoingtoriskconfrontationwiththeRussians,orisitgoingtoacceptthatAssad
ain'tgoinganywhereandisthereforthelonghaul?Noteasychoices.
ThekeyargumentofObama'sspeechattheUNonMondaywas"Chooseco-operationoverconflict.Thatisnotweakness,thatisstrength."Doesn't
seemtobeVladimir'smodusoperandi.
ThealreadyintractableproblemofSyriahasjustbecomeawholelotmorecomplex-andawholelotmoredangerous.
From: Williams,JohnP<WilliamsJP@state.gov>
Senttime: 10/08/201505:40:04AM
To: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>Fishel,Eugene<FishelE@state.gov>
RE:GoodStufffromKotkin:hisreviewofMeyersbook(Ultimately,Mr.Putin'stacticalcoupscannotconcealhisfailuretoreviveRussiaasa
Subject:
genuinegreatpower)
ThanksreftoDawisha?:UnlikesomanyotherauthorswhotakeonMr.Putin,herefusestocherrypickanecdotesor
indulgeindippyconspiracytheories.Hisreliable,wealth-of-detailsapproachcapturesthezigsandzagsofMr.Putin's
evolution.
From:RobertOtto[mailto:robertotto25@gmail.com]
Sent:Thursday,October08,20154:49AM
To:Williams,JohnPFishel,Eugene
Subject:GoodStufffromKotkin:hisreviewofMeyersbook(Ultimately,Mr.Putin'stacticalcoupscannotconcealhisfailuretorevive
Russiaasagenuinegreatpower)
#3
WallStreetJournal
October6,2015
Russia'sSnarlingStuntman
Russiaisdeclining,withtalentandcapitalinfullflight.Yetdespitethiswretchedhand,VladimirPutinistrumpingthe
West.
BySTEPHENKOTKIN
Mr.Kotkin,authorof"Stalin,"isaPrincetonprofessorandaHooverInstitutionfellowatStanford.
THENEWTSAR
ByStevenLeeMyers
Knopf,572pages,$32.50
Russia'sdeclinecontinues.Beneaththebluster,elitesarejittery.Thepopulaceispridefulbutmiserable.Talent-notjust
capital-isinfullflight.Theregimehasnostrategybeyonditsownsurvival,andVladimirPutinhasbecomeasnarling
stuntmanwithasurgicallyenhancedappearanceandapropaganda-enhancedapprovalrating.
Yetdespitethiswretchedhand,Russia'sautocrathasbeentrumpingtheWest.Justlastweek,afterPresidentObama
gaveaspeechattheUnitedNations,Mr.PutinbeganbombingthepoliticalopponentsoftheSyrianbutcherBasharal-
Assadinthenameofcombating"terrorism."
StevenLeeMyers's"TheNewTsar:TheRiseandReignofVladimirPutin"providesacomprehensivelookatRussia's
would-besaviorandAmerica'snemesis.Muchoftheaccountisfamiliar:thePutinfamily'sshabbycommunalapartment
inpost-WorldWarIILeningradyoungVladimirasanindifferentstudentandcourtyardruffianthesuddendiscipline
instilledbymartialartshisobsessionwiththepopularfilmseries"ShieldandSword"(1968),whichinspiredadreamto
jointheKGB.ThetapontheshoulderthatfulfilledthatdreamcamewhilehewasalawstudentatLeningradState
University.Nextupwasspyschool,acareerpolicingthoughtinLeningradandthenaforeignassignmentinanEast
Germanbackwater.
Mr.Myers,whospentsevenyearsasaNewYorkTimescorrespondentinMoscow,digsthroughanimpressivelywide
rangeofmaterials,gatheringrevealingquotesfromlifelongloyalistsaswellasinsiderswhobrokeranks.Unlikesomany
otherauthorswhotakeonMr.Putin,herefusestocherrypickanecdotesorindulgeindippyconspiracytheories.His
reliable,wealth-of-detailsapproachcapturesthezigsandzagsofMr.Putin'sevolution.
TheimplosionoftheEasternBlocandthenoftheSovietUnionin1989-91meantanewlifeforMr.Putinastopdeputyto
thedemocraticallyelectedmayorofSt.Petersburg,AnatolySobchak.TheKGBoperativetriedtomakeRussia'sversion
ofdemocracywork:WhenrivalsdeployeddirtytrickstofoilSobchak'sre-electioncampaigninthemid-1990s,Mr.Putin
indignantlywrotetoMoscowdemandingthattheKremlintake"decisiveactiontoendtheuseofthelaw-enforcement
authoritiesforpoliticalpurposes."
Hisnaiveappealfellflat,butconnectionssooncatapultedhimintothepresidentialadministrationinMoscow,andin1998
apromotionbyBorisYeltsinmadeMr.PutintheheadoftheKGB'ssuccessoragency.Hisascenttothepresidencyisits
ownsordidtale.
PresidentPutin'sfirstterm(2000-04)brimmedwithhopeandeconomicgrowth.Whenandwhyheabandonedhisefforts
atstructuralreformremainsamatterofcontroversy.
Mr.MyersapprovinglyquotesaletterwrittenbytheimprisonedoilmagnateMikhailKhodorkovskyin2004,inwhichhe
saidthatMr.Putin"isprobablyneitheraliberalnorademocrat,butheisstillmoreliberalanddemocraticthan70percent
ofourcountry'spopulation."ButthisassertionremainsunsubstantiatedbecauseMr.Myers'sbiographydoesn'texamine
Russiansociety.TheauthoralsoseemstolendsomesupporttothepopularnarrativewithinRussiaof"Western
betrayal,"pointingoutthatMr.PutinheldfourmeetingswithPresidentGeorgeW.Bushin2001,andallhegotwasa
week'snoticewhenWashingtonunilaterallyabrogatedtheAnti-BallisticMissileTreaty.Butwhatoftheexperienceof
rebuildingstatepowerinshapingMr.Putin'struculence?WhatoftheperennialconundrumofconfrontingtheWest's
abidingsuperiorityandRussia'sweakness?
FewpeoplewhohavehadabrushwithMr.Putincomeoffwellhere.Afterhisre-electiontoasecondtermin2004,the
investorBillBrowdertoldajournalistthat"peoplewillforgetinsixmonthsthatKhodorkovskyisstillsittinginjail"-andhe
andotherscontinuedtoinvestinthecountry.Similarly,JohnBrowne,thenCEOofBP,ishearddismissingthePutin
regime'sannihilationofMr.Khodorkovsky'sprivateoilcompanyYukoswiththecomment:"Nocountryhascomesofarin
suchashortspaceoftime."(BPlaterpartneredwithRosneft,thecompanythatstoleYukos.)
Mr.MyerslaysbarethehashofGeorgeW.Bush'slook-into-Mr.Putin's-soulRussiapolicy,whichculminatedinthe
consolidationofthepartitionofGeorgiain2008.HethenrecountstheblowupofPresidentBarackObama'sresetRussia
policy.
TheauthorremindsusthatSecretaryofStateHillaryClintonwarnedinDecember2012thatMr.Putin'sproposed
"EurasianUnion"soughttosubjugateitsformerpossessionsandaddedthat"wearetryingtofigureouteffectivewaysto
slowdownorpreventit."Mr.Putinsabotageditforherin2014,whenheseizedCrimeafromUkraine,consolidatinga
strongpro-EuropemajorityinKievandsendingchillsthroughthecapitalsofBelarusandKazakhstan.ButUkraineisnow
dismembered.
Countlesssecondarycharactersareintroducedknowledgeablyhere,butnonecometofull-bloodedlife.Eventhe
protagonistcanseemelusive.ContraMr.Myers,Mr.Putinisnota"tsar."Theambiguityofanysuccessionispotentially
themostdebilitatingaspectofhisrule,asitisforallauthoritarianregimes.Still,Mr.Myers'sportrait-withmaliceasMr.
Putin'sdefiningattribute-isdevastatingpreciselybecauseitisjudiciouslydrawn.
Ultimately,Mr.Putin'stacticalcoupscannotconcealhisfailuretoreviveRussiaasagenuinegreatpower.Atonepoint,
Mr.Myersshows,Mr.Putinhimselfknewbetter."Itseemstoallofus-andIwilladmit,tomesometimesaswell-thatby
imposingstrictorderwithanironfist,wewillallbegintolivebetter,morecomfortably,moresecurely,"Mr.Putinobserved
in2002."Inactualfactthatcomfortwouldveryquicklypassbecausethatironfistwouldveryquicklybegintostrangleus."
From: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 10/08/201501:50:50AM
To: WayneAllensworth<swallen@1scom.net>ChrisBort<chris.bort@gmail.com>
GoodStufffromKotkin:ReviewofMyers(Ultimately,Mr.Putin'stacticalcoupscannotconcealhisfailuretoreviveRussiaasagenuinegreat
Subject:
power)
#3
WallStreetJournal
October6,2015
Russia'sSnarlingStuntman
Russiaisdeclining,withtalentandcapitalinfullflight.Yetdespitethiswretchedhand,VladimirPutinistrumpingthe
West.
BySTEPHENKOTKIN
Mr.Kotkin,authorof"Stalin,"isaPrincetonprofessorandaHooverInstitutionfellowatStanford.
THENEWTSAR
ByStevenLeeMyers
Knopf,572pages,$32.50
Russia'sdeclinecontinues.Beneaththebluster,elitesarejittery.Thepopulaceispridefulbutmiserable.Talent-notjust
capital-isinfullflight.Theregimehasnostrategybeyonditsownsurvival,andVladimirPutinhasbecomeasnarling
stuntmanwithasurgicallyenhancedappearanceandapropaganda-enhancedapprovalrating.
Yetdespitethiswretchedhand,Russia'sautocrathasbeentrumpingtheWest.Justlastweek,afterPresidentObama
gaveaspeechattheUnitedNations,Mr.PutinbeganbombingthepoliticalopponentsoftheSyrianbutcherBasharal-
Assadinthenameofcombating"terrorism."
StevenLeeMyers's"TheNewTsar:TheRiseandReignofVladimirPutin"providesacomprehensivelookatRussia's
would-besaviorandAmerica'snemesis.Muchoftheaccountisfamiliar:thePutinfamily'sshabbycommunalapartment
inpost-WorldWarIILeningradyoungVladimirasanindifferentstudentandcourtyardruffianthesuddendiscipline
instilledbymartialartshisobsessionwiththepopularfilmseries"ShieldandSword"(1968),whichinspiredadreamto
jointheKGB.ThetapontheshoulderthatfulfilledthatdreamcamewhilehewasalawstudentatLeningradState
University.Nextupwasspyschool,acareerpolicingthoughtinLeningradandthenaforeignassignmentinanEast
Germanbackwater.
Mr.Myers,whospentsevenyearsasaNewYorkTimescorrespondentinMoscow,digsthroughanimpressivelywide
rangeofmaterials,gatheringrevealingquotesfromlifelongloyalistsaswellasinsiderswhobrokeranks.Unlikesomany
otherauthorswhotakeonMr.Putin,herefusestocherrypickanecdotesorindulgeindippyconspiracytheories.His
reliable,wealth-of-detailsapproachcapturesthezigsandzagsofMr.Putin'sevolution.
TheimplosionoftheEasternBlocandthenoftheSovietUnionin1989-91meantanewlifeforMr.Putinastopdeputyto
thedemocraticallyelectedmayorofSt.Petersburg,AnatolySobchak.TheKGBoperativetriedtomakeRussia'sversion
ofdemocracywork:WhenrivalsdeployeddirtytrickstofoilSobchak'sre-electioncampaigninthemid-1990s,Mr.Putin
indignantlywrotetoMoscowdemandingthattheKremlintake"decisiveactiontoendtheuseofthelaw-enforcement
authoritiesforpoliticalpurposes."
Hisnaiveappealfellflat,butconnectionssooncatapultedhimintothepresidentialadministrationinMoscow,andin1998
apromotionbyBorisYeltsinmadeMr.PutintheheadoftheKGB'ssuccessoragency.Hisascenttothepresidencyisits
ownsordidtale.
PresidentPutin'sfirstterm(2000-04)brimmedwithhopeandeconomicgrowth.Whenandwhyheabandonedhisefforts
atstructuralreformremainsamatterofcontroversy.
Mr.MyersapprovinglyquotesaletterwrittenbytheimprisonedoilmagnateMikhailKhodorkovskyin2004,inwhichhe
saidthatMr.Putin"isprobablyneitheraliberalnorademocrat,butheisstillmoreliberalanddemocraticthan70percent
ofourcountry'spopulation."ButthisassertionremainsunsubstantiatedbecauseMr.Myers'sbiographydoesn'texamine
Russiansociety.TheauthoralsoseemstolendsomesupporttothepopularnarrativewithinRussiaof"Western
betrayal,"pointingoutthatMr.PutinheldfourmeetingswithPresidentGeorgeW.Bushin2001,andallhegotwasa
week'snoticewhenWashingtonunilaterallyabrogatedtheAnti-BallisticMissileTreaty.Butwhatoftheexperienceof
rebuildingstatepowerinshapingMr.Putin'struculence?WhatoftheperennialconundrumofconfrontingtheWest's
abidingsuperiorityandRussia'sweakness?
FewpeoplewhohavehadabrushwithMr.Putincomeoffwellhere.Afterhisre-electiontoasecondtermin2004,the
investorBillBrowdertoldajournalistthat"peoplewillforgetinsixmonthsthatKhodorkovskyisstillsittinginjail"-andhe
andotherscontinuedtoinvestinthecountry.Similarly,JohnBrowne,thenCEOofBP,ishearddismissingthePutin
regime'sannihilationofMr.Khodorkovsky'sprivateoilcompanyYukoswiththecomment:"Nocountryhascomesofarin
suchashortspaceoftime."(BPlaterpartneredwithRosneft,thecompanythatstoleYukos.)
Mr.MyerslaysbarethehashofGeorgeW.Bush'slook-into-Mr.Putin's-soulRussiapolicy,whichculminatedinthe
consolidationofthepartitionofGeorgiain2008.HethenrecountstheblowupofPresidentBarackObama'sresetRussia
policy.
TheauthorremindsusthatSecretaryofStateHillaryClintonwarnedinDecember2012thatMr.Putin'sproposed
"EurasianUnion"soughttosubjugateitsformerpossessionsandaddedthat"wearetryingtofigureouteffectivewaysto
slowdownorpreventit."Mr.Putinsabotageditforherin2014,whenheseizedCrimeafromUkraine,consolidatinga
strongpro-EuropemajorityinKievandsendingchillsthroughthecapitalsofBelarusandKazakhstan.ButUkraineisnow
dismembered.
Countlesssecondarycharactersareintroducedknowledgeablyhere,butnonecometofull-bloodedlife.Eventhe
protagonistcanseemelusive.ContraMr.Myers,Mr.Putinisnota"tsar."Theambiguityofanysuccessionispotentially
themostdebilitatingaspectofhisrule,asitisforallauthoritarianregimes.Still,Mr.Myers'sportrait-withmaliceasMr.
Putin'sdefiningattribute-isdevastatingpreciselybecauseitisjudiciouslydrawn.
Ultimately,Mr.Putin'stacticalcoupscannotconcealhisfailuretoreviveRussiaasagenuinegreatpower.Atonepoint,
Mr.Myersshows,Mr.Putinhimselfknewbetter."Itseemstoallofus-andIwilladmit,tomesometimesaswell-thatby
imposingstrictorderwithanironfist,wewillallbegintolivebetter,morecomfortably,moresecurely,"Mr.Putinobserved
in2002."Inactualfactthatcomfortwouldveryquicklypassbecausethatironfistwouldveryquicklybegintostrangleus."
From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 10/01/201508:35:47AM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
Subject: FW:BBCCommentary:HowPutinBlindsidedtheUSOverSyria
From:GlenHoward[mailto:howard@jamestown.org]
Sent:Wednesday,September30,20155:41PM
To:Prof.S.FredStarrSEndersWimbushJohnBDunlopPavelBaevPavelFelgenhauerJacobKippTimothyThomasMatthewCzekajClintonSmullyanJrRobSpring
WillemdeVogelBillRichardsPeterWoodPeterMattisTemuriYakobashviliDanielPFataalan.merbaum@lmco.comCharlesLannanAhmedHashimOmarHumadiZuhair
HumadiHamzaShareefAdelBashqawiMichaelE.KavoukjianktmcfarlandWladimirvanWilgenburg
Subject:BBCCommentary:HowPutinBlindsidedtheUSOverSyria
Greatcommentary.NotesaftermakingadealonMondayandagreeingtocoordinatewithTheUS,Moscowlaunchesairstrikeswithlittlenotice.Tomakemattersworse,
insteadofaphonecallaRussian3stargeneraldrivestoUSembassyinBaghdad,knocksonthedoorandsaysthebombingstartsin1hourandalertyourguys.
Glen
US&Canada
HowPutinblindsidedtheUSoverSyria
3hoursago
JonSopelNorthAmericaeditor
FromthesectionUS&Canada
57comments
ImagecopyrightAPImagecaptionTheUNhandshakemaskedaraftofdifferences
ThereshouldbenosurprisesaboutwhattheRussianshavedone.
TheyhaveconsistentlymadecleartheirsupportforPresidentAssad.ItwashardlyagreatsecretthattheyhadmovedmilitaryassetsintoSyria-and
theRussianpilotshadn'tflowntheirfighteraircraftovertotheEasternMediterraneantoearnsomeextraairmiles.
PresidentVladimirPutinhadameetingwithPresidentBarackObamaonMondaynighttoexplainwhatRussia'splanwas-andalthoughtherewere
profounddifferences,USofficialssaidtheyunderstoodbetterwhatRussia'sintentionswere.
Andyet.
Isn'ttheresomethingtotallyjaw-dropping,gob-smacking,eyebrow-arching,eartwitchinglyextraordinary-andnottomention,casual-abouttheway
theAmericanslearntaboutRussianplans?
ItbeganwithaphonecallfromaRussiandiplomattohiscounterpartinBaghdadtosay"we'vegotsomethinginterestingtotellyou".
Thenathree-starRussiangeneralleavestheRussianembassycompoundandknocksonthedooroftheAmericanone,andaskstoseetheUSmilitary
attache.
HetellstheAmericanmilitarymanthatbombingstartsinanhour,soyou'dbettergetoutofSyrianairspacenowandmoveanyassetsyouhaveoffthe
ground.And60minuteslater,thebombingstarted.
Wow.TosaytheAmericanswereblindsidedbythisunorthodoxlineofcommunicationistoputitmildly.Havinghadtheir"cleartheair"meetingon
Mondaynighttherewasananticipationthatthoughtheremightbebigpolicydifferences,therewouldbeadegreeofco-ordinationandopenness.
Justconsiderthis-therisksofaUSfighterplanerunningintoaRussianonewithunimaginableconsequenceshasjustratchetedup.Aretheygoingto
takeitonturnstobombtargets?Onedayit'stheAmericansandtheirallies,thenextdayit'stheRussians.Youdon'tneedtobeamilitaryhistorianto
knowthatthatisnotgoingtofly(sotospeak).
Andthatisbeforewegettothestrategicobjectives.
ImagecopyrightAPImagecaptionMoscowsaiditwasstrikingIslamicStatepositionsbuttheUSbelievestheywereattackingoppositiongroups
AretheRussianstryingtodestroyIS/Isis/Isil/DaeshoraretheytryingtopropupPresidentAssad?TheAmericansseethetwoasverydifferent,the
Russianslessso.
Ontheevidenceofoneday'sbombingitlookstobeverymuchthelatter.ThetargetofRussianordnancehasbeeninplaceswhereIShasno
presence.
Inotherwords,otherrebelgroups-anyrebelgroups-opposedtoPresidentAssadarebeingtargeted.Andthatraisesanotherhugequestion.Whatif
theRussiansstarthittingUSbackedandarmedrebelgroups?Thatisnotgoingtoendwell.
AndwhoknowshowmanyUSspecialforcestheremightbeonthegroundhelpingthoserebelgroups?Whatiftheyfindthemselvescomingunderfire
-dotheycallinUScloseairsupporttoseeofftheirRussianattackers?
TheAmericansclearlycameawaywiththeunderstandingaftertheMondaynighttte-a-ttethattheyhadanagreementononething-thatISneeded
tobeattackedanddestroyed,anddisagreementonanother-theroleofPresidentAssadinSyria'sfuturepoliticalsettlement.
ImagecopyrightReutersImagecaptionJohnKerryandSergeyLavrovdiscussedtheconflictonWednesday
Well-anditisdayoneofRussianaction-itlookslikeRussiaisnotdistinguishingbetweendifferentrebelgroups.IfthesegroupsareagainstAssad,
theycouldfindthemselvesinthecrosshairsoftheRussianAirForce.
AshtonCarter,theUSdefencesecretary,saysthereisadangerthatRussiaispouringgasolineontothefire.Healsoinsiststherehavebeennobig
surprisesinwhattheRussianshavedonetoday.Hmm.Idon'tthinktheAmericanshadthewaytodayunfoldedintheirplaybook.
OnceagainVladimirPutinhasseeminglyoutmanoeuvredtheWhiteHouse.AseniorUSdiplomatsaidtometheotherdaythatwhenObamaleaves
officehewillberoundlyapplaudedforthewayhenegotiatedandultimatelydeliveredadealonIran,butwillbejustifiablyvilifiedforthevacillationand
vaguenessoverhisSyriapolicy.
Putin,ontheotherhand,hasbeentotallyconsistent.HewantstoprotectRussia'sonlydeepwaterportontheEasternMediterraneanandwilldowhat
ittakestoprotectit.
SonowitlooksliketheUSadministrationhasachoicetomake-isitgoingtoriskconfrontationwiththeRussians,orisitgoingtoacceptthatAssad
ain'tgoinganywhereandisthereforthelonghaul?Noteasychoices.
ThekeyargumentofObama'sspeechattheUNonMondaywas"Chooseco-operationoverconflict.Thatisnotweakness,thatisstrength."Doesn't
seemtobeVladimir'smodusoperandi.
ThealreadyintractableproblemofSyriahasjustbecomeawholelotmorecomplex-andawholelotmoredangerous.
From: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 10/03/201501:41:25AM
To: GeneFishel<obolon78@yahoo.com>JohnWilliams<willijp1@yahoo.com>
Subject: MoreevidencewhyMassicotisaneffin'twit(n.b.reactionontheground)
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/2015/10/02/44c1f7fc-6932-11e5-9223-
70cb36460919_story.html?tid=pm_world_pop_b
U.S.willnotdirectlyconfrontRussiainSyria,
Obamasays
PresidentObamahasdecidednottodirectlyconfrontRussiaoveritsnewairoffensiveinSyria,believingthat
PresidentVladimirPutinwillsoonfindhimselfinaSyrianquagmire,buthehasapprovedanewescalationofU.S.
effortsagainsttheIslamicState.
ObamalaidouttheU.S.responsetoRussiasactionsduringameetingwithsenioraidesThursdayevening.Details
werefirmedupinameetingFridaymorningamongnationalsecurityprincipalsattheWhiteHouse,senior
administrationofficialssaid.
Atthesametime,thepresidentalsoapprovedproposals,madepriortothisweeksRussianactions,tostrengthenthe
U.S.fightagainstthemilitants.ThosemeasureswererecommendedbyObamasnewJointChiefsofStaffchairman,
Gen.JosephF.DunfordJr.
TheyincludedirectU.S.weaponsshipments,overlandfromIraq,toSyrianKurdishandArabfighterswhoinrecent
monthshavepushedtheIslamicStatefromamajorportionofnorthernSyriaalongtheTurkishborder.
TheKurdsarenowexpectedtobeginmovingsouthtowardRaqqa,thedefactomilitantcapital,innorth-central
Syria.
U.S.airstrikesarealsoslatedtoincreasewestoftheEuphrates,whereU.S.-backedoppositionforceshavehadlittle
recentsuccessagainsttheIslamicState.ThosestrikesarebeinglaunchedfromIncirlikairbaseinTurkey,where
aircraftfromothercoalitionpartnerswilljoinU.S.planes.
FarfromattackingtheIslamicState,asRussiahassaiditintends,itsthreedaysofairstrikesappeartohavefocused
largelyonoppositionforces,someofthemU.S.-backed,thatarefightingacrosswesternSyriaagainstthearmyof
PresidentBasharal-
Assad,whosegovernmentisbackedbyMoscow.
Obamadidnotresponddirectlytoquestionsaboutwhat,ifanything,hewoulddotohelptheembattledopposition,
whichincludesthousandsoffighterswhohavebeentrainedandarmedovertheyearsbytheCIA,aswellasnon-
IslamicStateextremists.SenioradministrationofficialssaidthattrainingandlimitedsuppliesforthoseinsideSyria
wouldcontinuebutthatthepolicywaslikelytocontinue.
CurrentandformerU.S.officialsvoicedconcernthattheRussianbombingwoulddamageacovertprogramalready
strugglingtogaintractioninthefightagainstAssad.Itisalsolikelytoincreasefrustrationamongtherebelsthatthe
AmericansdontdoasmuchastheRussiansdofortheirsideoftheconflict,saidRobertFord,theformerU.S.
ambassadortoSyriawhoresignedthatpositioninpartoutoffrustrationwithadministrationpolicy.
Rep.AdamSchiff(Calif.),therankingDemocratontheHouseIntelligenceCommittee,saidtheRussianmovereally
upstheantefortheUnitedStates.WedohavegreatreputationalcostsinlettingtheRussiansassertthemselvesand
beseenasamoreforcefulactoronthegroundinSyria.Wealsohaveadeepinterestinprotectingthemoderate
population,andthatsgoingtopushustohavegreaterinvolvement,whichisariskyproposition.
AnydirectmilitaryresponseagainstRussia,aU.S.militaryofficialsaid,wouldprobablyrequirenewpresidential
authorities.ButObama,speakingataWhiteHousenewsconferenceFriday,madeitclearthathehasnointentionof
directlyconfrontingRussianforces.
WerenotgoingtomakeSyriaintoaproxywarbetweentheUnitedStatesandRussia.Thatwouldbeabad
strategyonourpart,Obamasaid.ThisisabattlebetweenRussia,IranandAssadagainsttheoverwhelming
majorityoftheSyrianpeople.OurbattleiswithISIL,hesaid,referringtotheIslamicState.
ObamarespondedangrilytosuggestionsofU.S.weaknessinthefaceofRussianaggression,includingPutins
decisiontolaunchsurpriseairstrikesjusttwodaysaftermeetingwithObamaattheUnitedNations.
Thisisnotsomesuperpowerchessboardcontest,Obamasaid.Mr.PutinhadtogointoSyrianotoutofstrength
butoutofweakness,becausehisclient,Mr.Assad,wascrumbling.
RatherthanbuildingsupportforAssad,aminorityruler,RussiawouldalienateSyriasSunnimajorityandtheSunni-
ruledcountriesintheregionhehasbeentryingtocourt,Obamasaid.
ThepresidentsaidthisattemptbyRussiaandIran,theregimesotherbacker,topropupAssadandtrytopacify
thepopulationisjustgoingtogetthemstuckinaquagmire.Anditwontwork.Andtheywillbethereforawhileif
theydonttakeadifferentcourse.
AtleastoneseniorRussianofficialnotedthatRussiahadlearnedduringitsill-fatedoccupationofAfghanistanduring
the1980sthatairstrikesarenotenoughtoholdterritoryalessontheUnitedStateshasalsolearnedmorerecently
inbothSyriaandIraq.
WithoutanimmediategroundoperationbytheweakenedSyrianarmytocapturebombedoppositionterritory,the
resultsoftheseairstrikeswillbebroughttonaught,Gen.MakhmutGareyev,presidentoftheAcademyofMilitary
Sciences,said,accordingtotheRussiannewsagencyInterfax.
InaconversationThursdaybetweentheU.S.DefenseDepartmentandRussiasDefenseMinistry,arrangedtode-
conflictthecountriesairoperationsoverSyriaandavoidapossiblecollision,theRussiansrequestedU.S.
intelligenceonpossibleIslamicStatetargets,accordingtoasenioradministrationofficial,oneofseveralwho
discussedinternaldiscussionsontheconditionofanonymity.
TheanswerwegaveisthatwecannotcoordinatewithyouifyourefightingtheSyrianopposition....Werenot
goingtomaketheirtaskanyeasieriftheirfightisthewrongfight,theofficialsaid.DuringtheirU.N.conversation,
theofficialsaid,ObamatoldPutinthatifyourenotinterestedinfightingtheIslamicState,whattypeofpossible
engagementcouldtherebebetweenthem?Inhisnewsconference,Obamaalsodefendedhisdecisionstonot
directlyinterveneinSyriascivilwaroverthepastfouryears.AndwhenIhearpeopleofferinguphalf-bakedideas
asiftheyaresolutions,ortryingtodownplaythechallengesinvolvedinthissituationwhatIdliketoseepeople
askis,specifically,precisely,whatexactlywouldyoudo,andhowwouldyoufundit,andhowwouldyousustainit?
Andtypically,whatyougetisabunchofmumbojumbo,hesaid.
WearegoingtocontinuetogoafterISIL.Wearegoingtocontinuetoreachouttoamoderateopposition,Obama
said.
TheCIAhasprovidedthethousandsoffightersithastrainedatsecretbasesinJordanwithcommunications
equipment,intelligencesupportandarms,includingantitankmissiles.ThoseCIA-backedfightersreenteredSyria
acrossthatcountryssouthernborderwithJordan,butmanyhavemadetheirwayintounitsthatarenowarrayed
northandeastofDamascusareasthathavebeenpoundedbyRussianstrikesoverthepastseveraldays.
AformerseniorU.S.intelligenceofficialsaidtheU.S.failuretorespondtothestrikesorbolstersupportforCIA-
trainedunitsislikelytoangerCIAparamilitaryteamsintheregionthathaveforseveralyearschafedatWhiteHouse-
imposedlimitsonthelevelofsupportgiventomoderaterebelgroups.
Thereisahugeamountoffrustrationwiththeindecisionandabilitytocommitbythisadministration,saidaformer
seniorU.S.intelligenceofficialwithextensiveexperienceintheMiddleEast.Theagencyhasaproblem,theformer
officialsaid.U.S.-backedfighterslookattheCIAorDODtrainersasreflectingtheU.S.government.Theybelieve
thatweknowwhatsgoingonandcaninfluencewhatsgoingon.Ifwerenotinfluencingit,itmakestheminsecure.
Theywilldefect,gohomeorjointherefugeestreamheadingtoEurope.
ThecurrentandformerofficialsalsoexpressedconcernthattheRussianstrikeswouldpromptrebelgroupsto
intensifytheireffortstoacquireantiaircraftweaponry,includingsurface-to-airmissilesmunitionstheUnitedStates
hasworkedtokeepoutofSyriaforfearthattheywouldbeseizedbyal-QaedaortheIslamicState.
TheCIAoperationhaslargelyavoidedtheblundersthathavebesettheseparatelyrunPentagonefforttoarmand
trainrebelstofighttheIslamicState,aprogramthathasseenitsfightersquicklycapturedandsurrenderingtheir
weaponstoanal-Qaedaaffiliate.Evenso,theCIAprogramhasfailedtoshiftthecourseoftheconflictinSyria,and
agency-backedfightershavelongcomplainedabouttheU.S.refusaltoprovidemorepowerfulweapons,airsupport
orno-flyzones.
FormersecretaryofstateHillaryRodhamClinton,whoisseekingtheDemocraticpresidentialnomination,said
ThursdaythattheUnitedStatesshouldcreateno-flyzonesandhumanitariancorridorstoprotectciviliansand
moderateanti-
AssadrebelsinSyria.
ObamasaidClintonisnothalf-bakedintermsofherapproachtotheseproblems.But,hesaid,theresa
differencebetweenrunningforpresidentandbeingpresident.Andthedecisionsthatarebeingmadeandthe
discussionsthatImhavingwiththeJointChiefsbecomemuchmorespecificandrequire,Ithink,adifferentkindof
judgment.
Ifandwhenshespresident,thenshellmakethosejudgments,Obamasaid,addingthatthesearetoughcalls.
MissyRyanandStevenMufsoncontributedtothisreport.
From: Williams,JohnP<WilliamsJP@state.gov>
Senttime: 10/08/201505:40:04AM
To: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>Fishel,Eugene<FishelE@state.gov>
RE:GoodStufffromKotkin:hisreviewofMeyersbook(Ultimately,Mr.Putin'stacticalcoupscannotconcealhisfailuretoreviveRussiaasa
Subject:
genuinegreatpower)
ThanksreftoDawisha?:UnlikesomanyotherauthorswhotakeonMr.Putin,herefusestocherrypickanecdotesor
indulgeindippyconspiracytheories.Hisreliable,wealth-of-detailsapproachcapturesthezigsandzagsofMr.Putin's
evolution.
From:RobertOtto[mailto:robertotto25@gmail.com]
Sent:Thursday,October08,20154:49AM
To:Williams,JohnPFishel,Eugene
Subject:GoodStufffromKotkin:hisreviewofMeyersbook(Ultimately,Mr.Putin'stacticalcoupscannotconcealhisfailuretorevive
Russiaasagenuinegreatpower)
#3
WallStreetJournal
October6,2015
Russia'sSnarlingStuntman
Russiaisdeclining,withtalentandcapitalinfullflight.Yetdespitethiswretchedhand,VladimirPutinistrumpingthe
West.
BySTEPHENKOTKIN
Mr.Kotkin,authorof"Stalin,"isaPrincetonprofessorandaHooverInstitutionfellowatStanford.
THENEWTSAR
ByStevenLeeMyers
Knopf,572pages,$32.50
Russia'sdeclinecontinues.Beneaththebluster,elitesarejittery.Thepopulaceispridefulbutmiserable.Talent-notjust
capital-isinfullflight.Theregimehasnostrategybeyonditsownsurvival,andVladimirPutinhasbecomeasnarling
stuntmanwithasurgicallyenhancedappearanceandapropaganda-enhancedapprovalrating.
Yetdespitethiswretchedhand,Russia'sautocrathasbeentrumpingtheWest.Justlastweek,afterPresidentObama
gaveaspeechattheUnitedNations,Mr.PutinbeganbombingthepoliticalopponentsoftheSyrianbutcherBasharal-
Assadinthenameofcombating"terrorism."
StevenLeeMyers's"TheNewTsar:TheRiseandReignofVladimirPutin"providesacomprehensivelookatRussia's
would-besaviorandAmerica'snemesis.Muchoftheaccountisfamiliar:thePutinfamily'sshabbycommunalapartment
inpost-WorldWarIILeningradyoungVladimirasanindifferentstudentandcourtyardruffianthesuddendiscipline
instilledbymartialartshisobsessionwiththepopularfilmseries"ShieldandSword"(1968),whichinspiredadreamto
jointheKGB.ThetapontheshoulderthatfulfilledthatdreamcamewhilehewasalawstudentatLeningradState
University.Nextupwasspyschool,acareerpolicingthoughtinLeningradandthenaforeignassignmentinanEast
Germanbackwater.
Mr.Myers,whospentsevenyearsasaNewYorkTimescorrespondentinMoscow,digsthroughanimpressivelywide
rangeofmaterials,gatheringrevealingquotesfromlifelongloyalistsaswellasinsiderswhobrokeranks.Unlikesomany
otherauthorswhotakeonMr.Putin,herefusestocherrypickanecdotesorindulgeindippyconspiracytheories.His
reliable,wealth-of-detailsapproachcapturesthezigsandzagsofMr.Putin'sevolution.
TheimplosionoftheEasternBlocandthenoftheSovietUnionin1989-91meantanewlifeforMr.Putinastopdeputyto
thedemocraticallyelectedmayorofSt.Petersburg,AnatolySobchak.TheKGBoperativetriedtomakeRussia'sversion
ofdemocracywork:WhenrivalsdeployeddirtytrickstofoilSobchak'sre-electioncampaigninthemid-1990s,Mr.Putin
indignantlywrotetoMoscowdemandingthattheKremlintake"decisiveactiontoendtheuseofthelaw-enforcement
authoritiesforpoliticalpurposes."
Hisnaiveappealfellflat,butconnectionssooncatapultedhimintothepresidentialadministrationinMoscow,andin1998
apromotionbyBorisYeltsinmadeMr.PutintheheadoftheKGB'ssuccessoragency.Hisascenttothepresidencyisits
ownsordidtale.
PresidentPutin'sfirstterm(2000-04)brimmedwithhopeandeconomicgrowth.Whenandwhyheabandonedhisefforts
atstructuralreformremainsamatterofcontroversy.
Mr.MyersapprovinglyquotesaletterwrittenbytheimprisonedoilmagnateMikhailKhodorkovskyin2004,inwhichhe
saidthatMr.Putin"isprobablyneitheraliberalnorademocrat,butheisstillmoreliberalanddemocraticthan70percent
ofourcountry'spopulation."ButthisassertionremainsunsubstantiatedbecauseMr.Myers'sbiographydoesn'texamine
Russiansociety.TheauthoralsoseemstolendsomesupporttothepopularnarrativewithinRussiaof"Western
betrayal,"pointingoutthatMr.PutinheldfourmeetingswithPresidentGeorgeW.Bushin2001,andallhegotwasa
week'snoticewhenWashingtonunilaterallyabrogatedtheAnti-BallisticMissileTreaty.Butwhatoftheexperienceof
rebuildingstatepowerinshapingMr.Putin'struculence?WhatoftheperennialconundrumofconfrontingtheWest's
abidingsuperiorityandRussia'sweakness?
FewpeoplewhohavehadabrushwithMr.Putincomeoffwellhere.Afterhisre-electiontoasecondtermin2004,the
investorBillBrowdertoldajournalistthat"peoplewillforgetinsixmonthsthatKhodorkovskyisstillsittinginjail"-andhe
andotherscontinuedtoinvestinthecountry.Similarly,JohnBrowne,thenCEOofBP,ishearddismissingthePutin
regime'sannihilationofMr.Khodorkovsky'sprivateoilcompanyYukoswiththecomment:"Nocountryhascomesofarin
suchashortspaceoftime."(BPlaterpartneredwithRosneft,thecompanythatstoleYukos.)
Mr.MyerslaysbarethehashofGeorgeW.Bush'slook-into-Mr.Putin's-soulRussiapolicy,whichculminatedinthe
consolidationofthepartitionofGeorgiain2008.HethenrecountstheblowupofPresidentBarackObama'sresetRussia
policy.
TheauthorremindsusthatSecretaryofStateHillaryClintonwarnedinDecember2012thatMr.Putin'sproposed
"EurasianUnion"soughttosubjugateitsformerpossessionsandaddedthat"wearetryingtofigureouteffectivewaysto
slowdownorpreventit."Mr.Putinsabotageditforherin2014,whenheseizedCrimeafromUkraine,consolidatinga
strongpro-EuropemajorityinKievandsendingchillsthroughthecapitalsofBelarusandKazakhstan.ButUkraineisnow
dismembered.
Countlesssecondarycharactersareintroducedknowledgeablyhere,butnonecometofull-bloodedlife.Eventhe
protagonistcanseemelusive.ContraMr.Myers,Mr.Putinisnota"tsar."Theambiguityofanysuccessionispotentially
themostdebilitatingaspectofhisrule,asitisforallauthoritarianregimes.Still,Mr.Myers'sportrait-withmaliceasMr.
Putin'sdefiningattribute-isdevastatingpreciselybecauseitisjudiciouslydrawn.
Ultimately,Mr.Putin'stacticalcoupscannotconcealhisfailuretoreviveRussiaasagenuinegreatpower.Atonepoint,
Mr.Myersshows,Mr.Putinhimselfknewbetter."Itseemstoallofus-andIwilladmit,tomesometimesaswell-thatby
imposingstrictorderwithanironfist,wewillallbegintolivebetter,morecomfortably,moresecurely,"Mr.Putinobserved
in2002."Inactualfactthatcomfortwouldveryquicklypassbecausethatironfistwouldveryquicklybegintostrangleus."
From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 10/03/201510:03:51AM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
Subject: FW:[Newpost]WatchthisinterestingvideooftheRussianplanes(withRedStarpaintedover)atworkinSyria
From:GlenHoward[mailto:howard@jamestown.org]
Sent:Friday,October02,20152:59PM
To:AdelBashqawiAhmedHashimJonChickyNickHerasMichaelWSRyanjakekippMatthewCzekajClintonSmullyanJrRob
SpringEerikKrosssocor@jamestown.orgIyadYougharTemuriYakobashviliTraininblankJohnBDunlop
<Bohdan.Kupych@kmcore.com>CharlesLannanRomanMashovets
Subject:Fwd:[Newpost]WatchthisinterestingvideooftheRussianplanes(withRedStarpaintedover)atworkinSyria
Interestingvideo.ArticlenotestheRussianshaveerasedtheRussianflagandREDstarfromtheirfighterplanes.Besuretonote
howRTsaystheRussianpilotsarebeingespeciallycarefulnottohurtcivilians.TheexcellentWSJarticleonthebombing
campaigntodayalsoreportedthattheRussianswereflyingnightraids,inadditiontoflyingduringtheday.Syriansneverflyat
night.
----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:TheAviationist<donotreply@wordpress.com>
Date:Fri,Oct2,2015at4:44PM
Subject:[Newpost]WatchthisinterestingvideooftheRussianplanes(withRedStarpaintedover)atworkinSyria
To:howard@jamestown.org
DavidCenciottiposted:"TakealookatwhathappensinsideLatakiaairbase,wheretheRussianAirForcecontingentisbased.
ThefollowingexclusivevideobyRTbringsyouinsideal-AssadInternationalAirport,nearLatakia,whereRussianAirForce
contingent,currentlymadeof"
NewpostonTheAviationist
WatchthisinterestingvideooftheRussianplanes(withRedStarpaintedover)
atworkinSyria
byDavidCenciotti
Takealookatwhathappensinside
Latakiaairbase,wheretheRussianAir
Forcecontingentisbased.
ThefollowingexclusivevideobyRTbringsyouinsideal-AssadInternationalAirport,near
Latakia,whereRussianAirForcecontingent,currentlymadeof36combatplanes,is
based.
ThefootageisextremelyinterestingasitclearlyshowsthesixSu-34Fullbackaircraft
returningfromthefirstcombatsortiesagainstIslamicStatetargetsinSyria.
Acloserlookatthewarplanesprovidestheconfirmationthatalltheaircraft,includingthe
Su-25sandtheSu-34s,wereremovedthestandardRussianAirForcemarkingsandthe
typicalRedStar:mostprobablytheRussiansdon'twanttheirsymboltobeshownoff
alongwiththewreckageofaplaneincaseoneisshotdownorcrashesinSyria.
Bytheway,theinsigniawereoverpaintedontheSu-30SMsandtheSu-24Msaswell,
evenifthesearenotclearlyvisibleinthisvideohowevertherearescreenshotsinthe
socialmediathatprovethesameappliestoFlankersandFencers.
Thisisnotthefirsttimeaircrafttakingpartinrealoperationsarestrippedofftheir
nationalmarkings.UAEF-16sdeployedtoJordantotakepartinOperationInherent
Resolvedidn'twearthenationalflagwhilesomeU.S.dronesdeployedinsensitiveareas
performtheirclandestinemissionsunmarked.
Relatedarticles
NewSatelliteImageunveilsanimpressiveline-upof12RussianSu-25FrogfootattackjetsinSyria!
SatelliteimageshowsfourRussianSu-30SMparkedintheopenairatairfieldinSyria
OnlineflighttrackingprovidesinterestingdetailsaboutRussianairbridgetoSyria
NewvideomayshowRussianIl-78tankerescortedbySu-24FencerjetsoverSyriatoday
Here'showtheRussianAirForcemoved28aircrafttoSyria(almost)undetected
RarevideoshowsRussianAirForceTu-160BlackjackbombersactivityintheArctic
Here'sastunningvideo(includingcockpitfootage)oftheawesomeSukhoiSu-30SM
DavidCenciotti|October2,2015at9:43pm|Tags:Islamicstate,Latakia,RussianAirForce,
Su-34Fullback,SukhoiSu-24,SukhoiSu-25|Categories:RogueStates,Russia,Syria,Waron
ISIS|URL:http://wp.me/p2TYIs-8NQ
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ChangeyouremailsettingsatManageSubscriptions.
Troubleclicking?CopyandpastethisURLintoyourbrowser:
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--
Glen
GlenE.Howard
President
TheJamestownFoundation
1111SixteenthStreet,N.W.
Suite320
Washington,D.C.20036
From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 10/06/201509:33:14AM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
FW:[LATENITERUN][NICMND][ADDMB-AB-WD]Fwd:FW:CeasefireholdingWeaponswithdrawalPeaceprocessSupportforUkraineNATOForcesFinlandSweden
Subject:
CorruptionHybridwarEffectofSyriauponUkraineSyria.....PLUS:RUOverTurkishAirspa...
From:WalterZaryckyj[mailto:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu]
Sent:Monday,October05,20159:19PM
Subject:Fwd:[LATENITERUN][NICMND][ADDMB-AB-WD]Fwd:FW:CeasefireholdingWeaponswithdrawalPeaceprocessSupportforUkraineNATOForces
FinlandSwedenCorruptionHybridwarEffectofSyriauponUkraineSyria.....PLUS:RUOverTurkishAirspa...
----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
Date:Tue,Oct6,2015at12:17AM
Subject:[LATENITERUN][NICMND][ADDMB-AB-WD]Fwd:FW:CeasefireholdingWeaponswithdrawalPeaceprocessSupportforUkraine
NATOForcesFinlandSwedenCorruptionHybridwarEffectofSyriauponUkraineSyria.....PLUS:RUOverTurkishAirspaceTwiceRUSpetnazGetting
intotheSyrianMelee
To:RomaHadzewycz<staff@ukrweekly.com>,rl<romashka1@aol.com>
----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:NicMarsh<nic@prio.no>
Date:Mon,Oct5,2015at8:21PM
Subject:FW:CeasefireholdingWeaponswithdrawalPeaceprocessSupportforUkraineNATOForcesFinlandSwedenCorruptionHybridwarEffectof
SyriauponUkraineSyria
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
Ceasefiremostlyholding
LatestfromOSCESpecialMonitoringMission(SMM)toUkrainebasedoninformationreceivedasof4October2015
ThesituationinDonetskandLuhanskremainedgenerallycalm.TheSMMheardsomeexplosionsandsmall-armsfire.
http://www.osce.org/ukraine-smm/189801
TwoUkrainiansoldierskilled,fivewoundedinlandmineblastinDonbas
http://www.unian.info/war/1142886-two-ukrainian-soldiers-killed-five-wounded-in-landmine-blast-in-donbas.html
RussianproxiesattackUkrainiantroopsonceovernight
http://www.unian.info/war/1142589-russian-proxies-attack-ukrainian-troops-once-overnight.html
Weaponswithdrawal
OSCEencouragedasrivalsconfirmpullback
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34442127
OSCE:"LPR"militantspullback30tanksfromcontactline
http://www.unian.info/war/1143496-osce-lpr-militants-pull-back-30-tanks-from-contact-line.html
Ukrainestartspull-backoftanks,lightartilleryineast:military
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/05/us-ukraine-crisis-withdrawal-idUSKCN0RZ0SW20151005
WithdrawaloftanksfromdemarcationlinebeginsinLuhanskregion
http://www.unian.info/war/1142898-withdrawal-of-tanks-from-demarcation-line-begins-in-luhansk-region.html
Ukrainianmilitarystartpullingbacksmall-caliberweapons
http://www.unian.info/war/1142848-ukrainian-military-start-pulling-back-small-caliber-weapons.html
Peaceprocess
UkraineinsistsRussiamustcedeborderbyendofyear
http://news.yahoo.com/ukraine-says-russia-must-cede-border-end-115552073.html
The"DNR"and"LC"allowedthetransferofelection
http://tvrain.ru/news/dnr_and_lnr_elections-395680/
SupportforUkraine
UkrainePresidentSaysObamaApprovedSendingNewWeapons
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-04/ukraine-president-says-obama-approved-sending-new-weapons
NATOForces
PolandLaunchesEffortToHelpArmE.EuropeanAllies
http://www.defensenews.com/story/defense/policy-budget/budget/2015/10/04/poland-launches-effort-help-arm-e-european-allies/73148772/
Finland
FinlandbeginsSquadron2020OPVprogramme
http://www.janes.com/article/54985/finland-begins-squadron-2020-opv-programme
Sweden
SwedenConsidersJoiningUK-ledJointExpeditionaryForce
http://www.defensenews.com/story/defense/policy-budget/policy/2015/10/04/sweden-considers-joining-uk-led-joint-expeditionary-force/72746418/
Corruption
HowtoFightCorruptioninUkraine
ByAndersslund
http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/how-to-fight-corruption-in-ukraine
Hybridwar
HowAreSocietiesDefendedAgainstHybridThreats?
http://www.gcsp.ch/News-Knowledge/Publications/How-are-Societies-Defended-against-Hybrid-Threats
EffectofSyriauponUkraine
Briefing:Putin'sTwo-FrontWar
AsRussianairstrikescontinueinSyria,negotiationsonafinalsettlementforUkraineresumeagaininMinskthisweek.
Onthisweek'sPowerVerticalBriefing,wetakealookatthelinkagebetweenRussia'stwoforeignconflicts.TowhatextenthasVladimirPutin'smoveintoSyria
changedtheconversationonUkraine?
http://www.rferl.org/content/briefing-putins-two-front-war/27288819.html
Syria
Refugees
Someforeignleaders'using'Europe'srefugeecrisis:Tusk
ThehugeinfluxofmigrantsintoEuropeisbeingusedbysomeforeignleaderstoweakentheEuropeanUnionpolitically,EUpresidentDonaldTusksaidFriday
inPoland.
http://news.yahoo.com/foreign-leaders-using-europes-refugee-crisis-tusk-225324029.html
PutinsPianos
BystrikingintoSyria,PutinhasmadehispositionclearthattherecanbenoresolutionintheMiddleEastwithoutRussia,andthattoachievethisgoalMoscowis
preparedtobrushasideWashingtonsobjections.HehasdirectlyinsertedRussianpowerintoanissuethatisnowattheheartoftheincreasinglytroubledEU
project:thefloodofmigrantsenteringEuropefromtheMiddleEastdrivenbythewar.
http://www.the-american-interest.com/2015/10/05/putins-pianos/
RussianforcesinSyria
ThelatestU.S.assessmentofMoscow'sactivityinwesternSyriaindicatesRussiahasmovedseveralgroundcombatweaponsandtroopsintotheareato
potentiallybackupSyrianforcesinthefieldplanningtoattackanti-regimeforces,accordingtotwoU.S.defenseofficials.
TheU.S.viewsthemoveasRussia"steppingupitsgroundactivity"inSyriatoattackthoseforces,ratherthanISISelements,accordingtooneoftheofficials.
It'sbelievedtheRussiansarepositioningtheweaponstobeabletosupportaSyriangroundoffensive,theofficialssaid.
Theequipmentincludesseveralpieceofartillery,aswellasfourBM-30multiple-launchrocketsystems--allconsideredtobehighlyaccurateweapons.The
latteriscapableofrapid-firerocketlaunches.
Severalweeksago,RussiamovedabouthalfadozenartillerypiecesintoLatakiaport.
TheU.S.originallyhadthoughtthatmightbefordefenseoftheport,butthelatestmoveisanindicationofpotentialgroundattacksinthecomingdays,theofficial
said.
http://edition.cnn.com/2015/10/05/politics/russia-ground-campaign-syria-isis/index.html
GeolocationandAnalysisofRussianMinistryofDefenceSyriaAirstrikeVideos
http://bellingcat.checkdesk.org/en/story/736
RussianWarshipsinEasternMediterraneantoProtectRussianStrikeFightersinSyria
http://news.usni.org/2015/10/05/russian-warships-in-eastern-mediterranean-to-protect-russian-strike-fighters-in-syria
ZaslonRussiasUltra-SecretiveSpecialOpsinSyria
http://warisboring.com/articles/zaslon-russias-ultra-secretive-special-ops-in-syria/
Russianairforceusinglaser-guidedKH-29LmissilesinSyria:RIA
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/04/us-mideast-crisis-syria-russia-missile-idUSKCN0RY09520151004
RussiaSu-24strikeaircraftinSyriaarmedwithaKh-25(notKh-29)laser-guidedair-to-surface#missile.
http://twitter.com/NickJDWEurope/status/650970238914310144
-24
http://youtu.be/UyeAE_ryCQM
VideoofastrikebyaRussianSU24
[Appearstobeusingunguideddumbbombs.]
InSyriaSpottedKrasuha-4RussianMobileElectronicWarfareSystems
http://defence-blog.com/army/in-syria-spotted-krasuha-4-russian-mobile-electronic-warfare-systems.html
Krasukha-4EWsystemdeployedin#Syria
http://twitter.com/AbraxasSpa/status/650952853322891264
http://tvzvezda.ru/news/vstrane_i_mire/content/201510040007-eoik.htm
JammingtheJihad:RussianElectronicWarfareSystemsSpottedinSyria
http://sputniknews.com/world/20151005/1028033057/syria-russia-electronic-warfare-systems.html#ixzz3nhT5uCdp
RussianandIsraeliaircraftnarrowlyavoiddueloverSyriancoast
http://www.airlive.net/2015/10/alert-russian-and-israeli-aircraft.html
DidaRussianSu-24FencerdropaclusterbomboverAleppo?
http://theaviationist.com/2015/10/05/russian-cluster-bombs-over-aleppo/
VideoRBK-500-SPBE-D
http://youtu.be/b8cO1FKoN8g
KremlinSaysRussianVolunteerForcesWillFightinSyria
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/06/world/europe/nato-russia-warplane-turkey.html?smid=tw-share
http://www.interfax.ru/russia/471231
PossibleRussianvolunteerstofightinSyria.
KadyrovasksPutintoallowChecheninfantrytofightinSyria
http://www.rt.com/politics/317393-this-will-be-holiday-kadyrov/
Effectsofthedeployment
MoscowscuppersUScoalitionplansforno-flyzoneinSyria
AlongsideamodestLatakia-basedcontingentoftwodozenSu-24FencerandSu-25FrogfootjetsplanesdesignedtostrikelandtargetsMoscowhas
deployedassetswhichrendertheprospectofno-flyzonesenforcedbytheUSoritsalliesoverSyriaimpossibletoenact.
Justweeksago,aftermonthsofdiplomacy,officialswereclosetoanagreementonenforcingaerialsafe-zonestoendtheAssadregimesbombingofciviliansin
northernandsouthernSyria,accordingtodiplomatsandmilitaryofficialsintheUS-ledcoalition.TheagreementwasbasedonJordanianandTurkishplans
presentedearlierthisyear.
ManyofficialsbelieveanimminentmovetorampupcoalitionactivityinSyriaprecipitatedtheKremlinssuddeninterventionlatelastmonth.
TheultimatereasonallthisishappeningisbecauseoftherenewedfocusonSyriaandtheneedforsomesortofpoliticalsolutiontheresomethingwhichwe
thoughtwecouldachievebyenforcingno-flyzones,safezones,saidoneseniorEuropeandiplomat.
Butanyhopesofmilitaryco-ordinationwithRussiatoachievethis,eveninthewakeofitsdisruptivedeployment,areswiftlybeingdashed.
NatossuprememilitarycommanderinEurope,USGeneralPhillipBreedlovewarnedlastweekthatthealliancewasworriedaboutanotherA2/ADbubble
beingcreatedintheeasternMediterranean.A2/ADstandsforanti-access,areadenial.
GenBreedlovesfearshavebeenrealisedinthepastdaysasRussiassmalldeploymentoffourSu-30flankerjets,whichareatLatakiasBasselal-Assadair
basehighlymanoeuvreableaircraftdesignedtoshootdownotheraircrafthasbeenaugmentedwithafarmorepowerfularsenal.
RussiasministryofdefenceannouncedonFridaythedeploymentofitsnavycruisertheMoskvatoLatakia.TheMoskvaisarmedwithacomplementof64S-
300ship-to-airmissiles,Russiasmostpowerfulanti-aircraftweapon.
DeploymentofS-300sorothersimilarlysophisticatedsystems,alsoknownastriple-digitSamshaslongbeenoneofthePentagonsbiggestfearsinthe
MiddleEast.TheS-300system,whichhasanoperatingrangeof150km,iscapableofstrikingdownallbutthemostsophisticatedstealthaircraft.Itmeansmost
missionsflownbyWashingtonscoalitionalliesJordan,forexample,usesF-16jetsarenowhighlyvulnerable.EventheUKsdeploymentofTornadosand
TyphoonsattheRoyalAirForcesbaseatAkrotiri,Cyprus,isthreatenedbythemissiles.
TheRussianforcesnowinplacemakeitvery,veryobviousthatanykindofno-flyzoneontheLibyanmodelimposedbytheUSandalliesisnowimpossible,
unlessthecoalitionisactuallywillingtoshootdownRussianaircraft,saysJustinBronk,researchanalystattheRoyalUnitedServicesInstitute.
TheRussiansarenotplayingballatdeconflictiontheyarejustsaying,keepoutofourway.ThecoalitionsoperationsinSyriawillbevastlymorecomplex
fromariskassessmentpointofviewandfromamission-planningpointofview.
EvensurveillancemissionsaboveSyriabyUSandcoalitionaircraftwillbecomplicated.OneNatoairforceofficersaidtheorganisationexpectedtostartseeing
thekindofcoldwartacticsandbrinkmanshipRussiahasrecentlybeenusingintheBaltics.PilotswillbebriefedtoexpectpowerfulRussianradarsystems
lightinguptheiraircraftinshowsofstrength,hesaid
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/cee6fcba-69bf-11e5-8171-ba1968cf791a.html#ixzz3nhTrhZnT
RussiaBombsRescuersinSyria
Double-tapairstrikekillsWhiteHelmet
http://warisboring.com/articles/russia-bombs-rescuers-in-syria/?mc_cid=b9ef6c05fd&mc_eid=7fbc580ab1
Russia'sairstrikesinSyriaareplayingwellathome
http://www.stripes.com/news/europe/russia-s-airstrikes-in-syria-are-playing-well-at-home-1.371767
PerfectconditionsforairstrikesonSyria,saysweatherforecasteronRussianTV
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/oct/05/perfect-weather-for-airstrikes-russian-tv-forecast-sets-sights-on-syria
SplitoverAssad,ArabstatesmumonRussia'sSyriastrikes
http://news.yahoo.com/split-over-assad-arab-states-mum-russias-syria-151908092.html
IraqwouldwelcomeRussianairstrikesagainstISIS
http://www.airforcetimes.com/story/military/2015/10/05/russian-airstrikes-against-isis-welcomed-iraq-islamic-state/73386916/
USresponse
U.S.AimstoPutMorePressureonISISinSyria
PresidentObamalastweekapprovedtwoimportantstepstosettheoffensiveinmotionoverthecomingweeks,officialssaid.Mr.ObamaorderedthePentagon,
forthefirsttime,todirectlyprovideammunitionandperhapssomeweaponstoSyrianoppositionforcesontheground.Healsoendorsedtheideaforan
increasedaircampaignfromanairbaseinTurkey,althoughimportantdetailsstillneedtobeworkedout.
MembersoftheIraqimilitarytrainedinBaghdadinJuly,duringavisitbyDefenseSecretaryAshtonB.Carter.AtanewsconferenceonFriday,President
ObamasaidcriticsofhisSyriapolicyofferedonlyhalf-bakedideasasalternatives.NewsAnalysis:SyriaExposesSplitBetweenObamaandClintonOCT.3,
2015
PresidentVladimirV.PutinofRussia,inParisonFridayforasummitmeetingwithWesternleadersonUkraine.Thatconflicthaslatelybeenovershadowedby
theinterventioninSyria.
Together,thesemeasuresareintendedtoempower3,000to5,000Arabfighterswhowouldjoinmorethan20,000Kurdishcombatantsinanoffensivebacked
bydozensofcoalitionwarplanestopressureRaqqa,theIslamicStatesmainstrongholdinSyria.PlansarealsomovingforwardtohaveSyrianopposition
fighterssealanimportant60-milepartofthecountrysborderwithTurkeytocutoffcriticalsupplylinesoftheIslamicState,alsoknownasISISorISIL.
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/05/world/middleeast/us-aims-to-put-more-pressure-on-isis-in-syria.html
IncursionintoTurkishairspace
RussianSu-30SM,Su-24violateTurkishairspace.FlankerlocksonTuAFF-16for+5minutes
http://theaviationist.com/2015/10/05/russian-su-30sm-su-24-violate-turkish-airspace-flanker-locks-on-tuaf-f-16-for-5-minutes/
Syriaconflict:Turkishjets'interceptRussianplane'
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34441201
TwoTurkishfighterjetsharassedonSyrianborder:Army
http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/two-turkish-fighter-jets-harassed-on-syrian-border-army.aspx?pageID=238&nID=89403&NewsCatID=352
RussiasaysviolationofTurkishairspacewasnavigationerror
http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/Default.aspx?pageID=238&nID=89387&NewsCatID=352
Russia:BadWeatherCausedJetToViolateTurkishAirspace
http://www.defensenews.com/story/defense/international/europe/2015/10/05/russia-bad-weather-caused-jet-violate-turkish-airspace/73394304/
NATOSecretaryGeneralonviolationsofTurkishairspacebyRussiancombataircraft,5OCT2015
http://youtu.be/vJnJjK2MG40
StatementbytheNorthAtlanticCouncilonincursionsintoTurkeysairspacebyRussianaircraft
http://nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_123392.htm
Syriawarexplained
Viewpoint:West'walkingintoabyss'onSyria
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-34371501
Syriaexplainer:thealliesandtheenemies
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/9a55afe2-6b49-11e5-aca9-d87542bf8673.html#axzz3njedbMqz
Iran
U.S.enforcementofIranarmsembargoslippedduringnucleartalks:sources
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/05/us-iran-sanctions-enforcement-insight-idUSKCN0RZ09O20151005
____________________________
NicholasMarsh
ResearchFellow
PeaceResearchInstituteOslo(PRIO)
HausmansGate7
0186Oslo
Norway
email:nic@prio.no
telephone:+4722547772
skype:nicholas.james.marsh
web:www.nisat.org
twitter:@NisatPrio
----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:MartaBurachok<marta.burachok@gmail.com>
Date:Mon,Oct5,2015at10:07PM
Subject:Syriaconflict:TurkeysummonsRussianambassadorasecondtime-BBCNews
To:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34450827
Syriaconflict:TurkeysummonsRussianambassadorasecond
time
EPATheRussiandefenceministrypublishedfootageofitsstrikesonMonday,includingsitesbeinghitbybombs(topleft)
TurkeyhasagainsummonedtheRussianambassadorafterasecondviolationofitsairspacebyaRussianwarplaneoperatinginSyria
intwodays.
ItdidthesameafterthefirstviolationonSaturday,afterwhichtwoTurkishF-16jetswerescrambled.
TurkeysaidthesecondviolationoccurredonSunday.
NatohasurgedRussiatoendairstrikes"ontheSyrianoppositionandcivilians".RussiasaysitistargetingIslamicStateandotherIslamists.
RussiasaidSaturday'sviolationwasforjustafewsecondsandduetopoorweather.IthasnotofficiallyreactedtoSunday'sincident.
Saturday'sinterceptiontookplacenearYayladagiinthesouthernHatayregion,Turkeysays.
AstatementbyNato's28members,whichincludeTurkey,warnedof"theextremedangerofsuchirresponsiblebehaviour"andurgedRussia"to
ceaseanddesist".
USSecretaryofStateJohnKerrysaidTurkeywouldhavebeenwithinitsrightstoshootthejetsdown.
----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:alexander<lesykb@hotmail.com>
Date:Mon,Oct5,2015at10:33PM
Subject:UkeNewsUpdate#813['Unacceptable'RussianIncursion']
To:wazWAZ<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,"drdenny324@gmail.com"<drdenny324@gmail.com>,31MORE
NATODenounces'Unacceptable'RussianIncursionIntoTurkey
Reuters
Oct.05201510:36
TheUnitedStatesanditsNATOalliesdenouncedRussiaonMondayforviolatingTurkishairspacealongthefrontierwithSyria,andAnkarathreatened
torespondifprovokedagain,raisingtheprospectofdirectconfrontationbetweentheColdWarenemies.
NATOsummonedtheambassadorsofits28memberstatesforanemergencymeetingtorespondtowhatSecretary-GeneralJensStoltenberg
called"unacceptableviolationsofTurkishairspace."
Moscow'sunexpectedmovelastweektolaunchairstrikesinSyriahasbroughtthegreatestthreatofanaccidentalclashbetweenRussianand
WesternforcessincetheColdWar.
RussianwarplanesandthoseoftheUnitedStatesanditsalliesarenowflyingcombatmissionsoverthesamecountryforthefirsttimesinceWorld
WarII,withMoscowrepeatedlytargetinginsurgentstrainedandarmedbyWashington'sallies.
TurkeyisoneofAssad'sfiercestfoesintheregion,hasbyfarthebiggestarmyontheborderwithSyriaandhastakeninthelargestnumberof
refugees.
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/nato-denounces-unacceptable-russian-incursion-into-turkey/536980.html
----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>
Date:Mon,Oct5,2015at8:12PM
Subject:BlackSwan>TurkeyThreatenstoShootDownRussianPlanesthatStrayfromSyria(OHBOY!!!)[ED:THATISWD'S"OHBOY!!"]
To:WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>,wolodymyrzarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>,WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
TurkeyThreatenstoShootDownRussianPlanesthatStrayfromSyria
TheairovertheSyrian-Turkishborderisgettingcrowdedwithwarplanes,andtensionsaregrowing.
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/10/05/turkey-threatens-to-shoot-down-russian-planes-that-stray-from-syria.html?via=ios
From:WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>
Date:Mon,Oct5,2015at10:02PM
Subject:PutinreportedlysettouseRussiangroundtroopstobackupAssad'sforcesinSyriavs.NOplansforRUconbattroopsinSyriafornow
(60MInutesLastSunday)
To:WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>,wolodymyrzarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>,WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
Escalation:PutinreportedlysettouseRussiangroundtroopstobackupAssadsforcesinSyria
http://hotair.com/archives/2015/10/05/escalation-putin-reportedly-set-to-use-russian-ground-troops-to-back-up-assads-forces-in-syria/
----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>
Date:Mon,Oct5,2015at6:29PM
Subject:PutinhassentthefearedSpetsnazspecialforcesintoSyriatobailoutAssad
To:WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>,wolodymyrzarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>,WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
PutinhassentthefearedSpetsnazspecialforcesintoSyriatobailoutAssad
21:00,5OCT2015
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/
RussiahassentitscrackspecialtroopsintoSyriatobackupPresidentBasharal-Assadsbidtowipeouthisopposition.
VladimirPutinsfearedSpetsnazunitandacovertparabattalionghostedintothewar-torncountryandarepreparingforanall-outassaultonrebelsfightingthe
regimeincludingmoderateunitssuchasthewestern-backedFreeSyrianArmy.
Amilitarysourcesaidlastnight:Putinsmarinesaretheretoguardtheairbasestheyareusingagainstsabotagebyrebels.ButSpetsnazandair-assaulttroopsare
nottheretoprovidesecuritytostaticobjects,theyareextremelyaggressiveandhighlytrained.
Theyaretheretomopupafterairstrikes,callinairstrikes,goonextremelycovertmissionsagainstrebelsandultimatelywipethemout.
AndtheywillnotbeasaccountableasBritishorUSspecialforces.Theyarethereforonereason,towipeoutanyonethreateningAssad.Byanymeans.And
bydoingthattheywillbeconsolidatingRussiaspositionontheMedandintheMiddleEast.
PutinclaimsthemissionistodefeatISbuthiswarplaneshavebeenhelpingAssadbysmashingrebelpositions.MostofthetargetsinNorthernSyriahavebeen
al-Qaedaaffiliatesorlessextremerebelgroupsopposedtotheleader,someofwhichareCIA-trainedandMI6-backed.
SpetsnazSpecialPurposeSoldiershavebeenjoinedbythe7thAirAssaultMountainDivision.
TheyareamongRussiastoughestandmostshadowytroops,manyofwhomhavefoughtdirtywarsinChechnyawheretheybuiltupadeephatredofjihadists.
TheywentonbloodyrevengemissionsagainstlocaljihadunitstopunishthemforatrocitiesagainstRussiantroopsandcivilians.
AmericahasvowedtostepupitsattacksonISinreactiontoPutinsairstrikesonAssadsopponents.AndNatoyesterdayurgedRussiatoenditsrebelattacks
andfocusonbeatingIS.
SaudiclericscalledonMuslimcountriestobackholywaragainstSyriaanditsIranianandRussianbackers.TheSunni-ruledlandissuspectedofsupportingal-
QaedaandISagainstShiasupportersofAssad.SaudihasjoinedairstrikesonISinSyria.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/
----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>
Date:Mon,Oct5,2015at9:06PM
Subject:Politics:IwilldefendChristianityaroundtheworld,says...VladimirPutin?[OhBOY!!!Nowweareinrealtrouble!!!WD][ED:ANYONEforthe
"AGEOFTHEFALSEPROPHET]
To:WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>,wolodymyrzarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>,WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
Politics:IwilldefendChristianityaroundtheworld,says...VladimirPutin?
ImageCredit:
Publishedby:DanCalabreseonMondayOctober5th,2015
http://www.caintv.com/i-will-defend-christianity-aro
Da.
Afriendofminerespondedtotheheadlineasfollows:"Hitlersaidthesamethingin1933."
Lestyougetconceptsconfused,Idon'tthinkPutinistalkingaboutridinginshirtlessonahorsetodefendtherightsofChristianbakeriesandflorists,nortosave
thewould-bevictimsofChristian-hatinggunmen.Butthethreathereferencesisnotinsiginificant,existingmainlyofcourseintheMiddleEastandcomingfrom
radicalIslamistsources.TheChristianPostreportsthatmanyChristiansinSyriaarepleasedtoseePutininterveningonBasharAssad'sbehalfbecausethey
figuretheirlotisbetterwithAssadthenitwouldlikelybewithwhoevermightreplacehim.ThesubsequentpresentationofPutinasabigsupporterofChristiansin
generalisabitrichtosaytheleast:
Afterdeliveringthefacts,MetropolitanHilarionaskedPutintomakeprotectionanddefenseofChristianityaroundtheglobeamajorpartofhisforeignpolicy.
And,asreportedbyInterfax,Putinreplied,"Youneedn'thaveanydoubtthatthat'sthewayitwillbe,"assuringHilarionthatRussianforeignpolicywoulddefend
Christiansfrompersecutionabroad.
Putin'srecentactionsseemtoconfirmhispromise.Lastweek,PutinvetoedaU.N.motioncallingforSyrianleaderBasharal-Assadtostepdown.Syrian
Christiansreceivedthisasgoodnews.AssadisoftheAlawitesectofIslam.AlawitesandChristiansarebothreligiousminoritiesinSyria.SyrianChristiansfeel
thatsharingthisminoritystatusmeansAssadwillprovidethemwithprotection.ASyrianChristianwomaneventoldTheGlobalPost,"ThankGodforRussia.
WithoutRussiawearedoomed."
PutinhaslongbeenasupporterofChristianityandChristianvalueswithinRussia.HehascalledfortheChurchtoplayalargerroleincitizens'sociallives,better
religionclassesinschools,andtelevisionprogramsemphasizingreligiousvalues.
It'snewstomethatblatantlandgrabs,cronycapitalismandsuppressionofpoliticaldissentwereChristianvalues,butmaybetheRussianBibletranslationsarea
littledifferent.
Buthere'swhatyoucan'tdeny:Peoplewhofeelthreatenedwillgravitatetowardsomeonetheythinkmighthavethestrengthandthetemerity-ifnotnecessarily
thevirtue-toprotectthem.Who'sgoingtodothatinWashington?ObviouslynotBarackObama,whocan'tevenbringhimselftomentionthattheOregonmass
shootertargetedChristians,butwillbeonlytoohappytocastigateChristiansoverstuffthathappenedmorethan1,000yearsago.
Peoplewilllooktoastrongmanwhentheyfeelthereisnovirtuous,principledleaderavailable.YouhearalotofAmericanconservativesofferingexpressionsof
respectforPutinbecause,unlikeObama,he'sseriousandaggressiveinthepursuitofhisgeopoliticalgoals-whicharealwaysintheserviceofRussia'sstrategic
interestsatleastasheseesthem.
I'velongsaidthisisamistake.It'sonethingtogivegrudgingrespecttoyouradversaryforhisobviousskills,butit'squiteanothertocrossthelineintoadmiring
theguyjustbecausehestandsinsuchstarkcontrasttoyourownweakanddisappointingleader.Putinisstillaforceformalevolencearoundtheglobe,aligning
himselfwiththemadmullahsinIran,thedespotinSyriaandeventhemonsterinNorthKorea.Ifhehadhisway,we'dsaythereconstitutionoftheSovietUnion-
anddoesanyonerememberhowthatworkedoutforChristiansthefirsttimearound?
Alsokeepinmind:PutinisorderingbombingraidsinSyria,buthe'snottargetingISISoritsallies.He'stargetingtherebelswhoweretrainedbytheU.S.Tellthe
nextChristianwho'sabouttobebeheadedbyISISthatPutinistheretoprotecthim.
Thebottomlineisthis:ThereisnosubstituteforAmericangloballeadership,andwhenit'sAWOL-asitisrightnow-weoftenmakethemistakeofseeking
subsititutesthatcomeintheformofprettyunsavorycharacters.Andremember:BarackObamamaynotbewillingtostandupforChristians,butGodis.Idon't
alwaysknowhowHe'sgoingtodoit,butI'lltakeHisprotectionoverthatofVladimirPutinanyday-andyoushouldtoo
From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 10/06/201509:33:14AM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
FW:[LATENITERUN][NICMND][ADDMB-AB-WD]Fwd:FW:CeasefireholdingWeaponswithdrawalPeaceprocessSupportforUkraineNATOForcesFinlandSweden
Subject:
CorruptionHybridwarEffectofSyriauponUkraineSyria.....PLUS:RUOverTurkishAirspa...
From:WalterZaryckyj[mailto:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu]
Sent:Monday,October05,20159:19PM
Subject:Fwd:[LATENITERUN][NICMND][ADDMB-AB-WD]Fwd:FW:CeasefireholdingWeaponswithdrawalPeaceprocessSupportforUkraineNATOForces
FinlandSwedenCorruptionHybridwarEffectofSyriauponUkraineSyria.....PLUS:RUOverTurkishAirspa...
----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
Date:Tue,Oct6,2015at12:17AM
Subject:[LATENITERUN][NICMND][ADDMB-AB-WD]Fwd:FW:CeasefireholdingWeaponswithdrawalPeaceprocessSupportforUkraine
NATOForcesFinlandSwedenCorruptionHybridwarEffectofSyriauponUkraineSyria.....PLUS:RUOverTurkishAirspaceTwiceRUSpetnazGetting
intotheSyrianMelee
To:RomaHadzewycz<staff@ukrweekly.com>,rl<romashka1@aol.com>
----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:NicMarsh<nic@prio.no>
Date:Mon,Oct5,2015at8:21PM
Subject:FW:CeasefireholdingWeaponswithdrawalPeaceprocessSupportforUkraineNATOForcesFinlandSwedenCorruptionHybridwarEffectof
SyriauponUkraineSyria
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
Ceasefiremostlyholding
LatestfromOSCESpecialMonitoringMission(SMM)toUkrainebasedoninformationreceivedasof4October2015
ThesituationinDonetskandLuhanskremainedgenerallycalm.TheSMMheardsomeexplosionsandsmall-armsfire.
http://www.osce.org/ukraine-smm/189801
TwoUkrainiansoldierskilled,fivewoundedinlandmineblastinDonbas
http://www.unian.info/war/1142886-two-ukrainian-soldiers-killed-five-wounded-in-landmine-blast-in-donbas.html
RussianproxiesattackUkrainiantroopsonceovernight
http://www.unian.info/war/1142589-russian-proxies-attack-ukrainian-troops-once-overnight.html
Weaponswithdrawal
OSCEencouragedasrivalsconfirmpullback
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34442127
OSCE:"LPR"militantspullback30tanksfromcontactline
http://www.unian.info/war/1143496-osce-lpr-militants-pull-back-30-tanks-from-contact-line.html
Ukrainestartspull-backoftanks,lightartilleryineast:military
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/05/us-ukraine-crisis-withdrawal-idUSKCN0RZ0SW20151005
WithdrawaloftanksfromdemarcationlinebeginsinLuhanskregion
http://www.unian.info/war/1142898-withdrawal-of-tanks-from-demarcation-line-begins-in-luhansk-region.html
Ukrainianmilitarystartpullingbacksmall-caliberweapons
http://www.unian.info/war/1142848-ukrainian-military-start-pulling-back-small-caliber-weapons.html
Peaceprocess
UkraineinsistsRussiamustcedeborderbyendofyear
http://news.yahoo.com/ukraine-says-russia-must-cede-border-end-115552073.html
The"DNR"and"LC"allowedthetransferofelection
http://tvrain.ru/news/dnr_and_lnr_elections-395680/
SupportforUkraine
UkrainePresidentSaysObamaApprovedSendingNewWeapons
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-04/ukraine-president-says-obama-approved-sending-new-weapons
NATOForces
PolandLaunchesEffortToHelpArmE.EuropeanAllies
http://www.defensenews.com/story/defense/policy-budget/budget/2015/10/04/poland-launches-effort-help-arm-e-european-allies/73148772/
Finland
FinlandbeginsSquadron2020OPVprogramme
http://www.janes.com/article/54985/finland-begins-squadron-2020-opv-programme
Sweden
SwedenConsidersJoiningUK-ledJointExpeditionaryForce
http://www.defensenews.com/story/defense/policy-budget/policy/2015/10/04/sweden-considers-joining-uk-led-joint-expeditionary-force/72746418/
Corruption
HowtoFightCorruptioninUkraine
ByAndersslund
http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/how-to-fight-corruption-in-ukraine
Hybridwar
HowAreSocietiesDefendedAgainstHybridThreats?
http://www.gcsp.ch/News-Knowledge/Publications/How-are-Societies-Defended-against-Hybrid-Threats
EffectofSyriauponUkraine
Briefing:Putin'sTwo-FrontWar
AsRussianairstrikescontinueinSyria,negotiationsonafinalsettlementforUkraineresumeagaininMinskthisweek.
Onthisweek'sPowerVerticalBriefing,wetakealookatthelinkagebetweenRussia'stwoforeignconflicts.TowhatextenthasVladimirPutin'smoveintoSyria
changedtheconversationonUkraine?
http://www.rferl.org/content/briefing-putins-two-front-war/27288819.html
Syria
Refugees
Someforeignleaders'using'Europe'srefugeecrisis:Tusk
ThehugeinfluxofmigrantsintoEuropeisbeingusedbysomeforeignleaderstoweakentheEuropeanUnionpolitically,EUpresidentDonaldTusksaidFriday
inPoland.
http://news.yahoo.com/foreign-leaders-using-europes-refugee-crisis-tusk-225324029.html
PutinsPianos
BystrikingintoSyria,PutinhasmadehispositionclearthattherecanbenoresolutionintheMiddleEastwithoutRussia,andthattoachievethisgoalMoscowis
preparedtobrushasideWashingtonsobjections.HehasdirectlyinsertedRussianpowerintoanissuethatisnowattheheartoftheincreasinglytroubledEU
project:thefloodofmigrantsenteringEuropefromtheMiddleEastdrivenbythewar.
http://www.the-american-interest.com/2015/10/05/putins-pianos/
RussianforcesinSyria
ThelatestU.S.assessmentofMoscow'sactivityinwesternSyriaindicatesRussiahasmovedseveralgroundcombatweaponsandtroopsintotheareato
potentiallybackupSyrianforcesinthefieldplanningtoattackanti-regimeforces,accordingtotwoU.S.defenseofficials.
TheU.S.viewsthemoveasRussia"steppingupitsgroundactivity"inSyriatoattackthoseforces,ratherthanISISelements,accordingtooneoftheofficials.
It'sbelievedtheRussiansarepositioningtheweaponstobeabletosupportaSyriangroundoffensive,theofficialssaid.
Theequipmentincludesseveralpieceofartillery,aswellasfourBM-30multiple-launchrocketsystems--allconsideredtobehighlyaccurateweapons.The
latteriscapableofrapid-firerocketlaunches.
Severalweeksago,RussiamovedabouthalfadozenartillerypiecesintoLatakiaport.
TheU.S.originallyhadthoughtthatmightbefordefenseoftheport,butthelatestmoveisanindicationofpotentialgroundattacksinthecomingdays,theofficial
said.
http://edition.cnn.com/2015/10/05/politics/russia-ground-campaign-syria-isis/index.html
GeolocationandAnalysisofRussianMinistryofDefenceSyriaAirstrikeVideos
http://bellingcat.checkdesk.org/en/story/736
RussianWarshipsinEasternMediterraneantoProtectRussianStrikeFightersinSyria
http://news.usni.org/2015/10/05/russian-warships-in-eastern-mediterranean-to-protect-russian-strike-fighters-in-syria
ZaslonRussiasUltra-SecretiveSpecialOpsinSyria
http://warisboring.com/articles/zaslon-russias-ultra-secretive-special-ops-in-syria/
Russianairforceusinglaser-guidedKH-29LmissilesinSyria:RIA
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/04/us-mideast-crisis-syria-russia-missile-idUSKCN0RY09520151004
RussiaSu-24strikeaircraftinSyriaarmedwithaKh-25(notKh-29)laser-guidedair-to-surface#missile.
http://twitter.com/NickJDWEurope/status/650970238914310144
-24
http://youtu.be/UyeAE_ryCQM
VideoofastrikebyaRussianSU24
[Appearstobeusingunguideddumbbombs.]
InSyriaSpottedKrasuha-4RussianMobileElectronicWarfareSystems
http://defence-blog.com/army/in-syria-spotted-krasuha-4-russian-mobile-electronic-warfare-systems.html
Krasukha-4EWsystemdeployedin#Syria
http://twitter.com/AbraxasSpa/status/650952853322891264
http://tvzvezda.ru/news/vstrane_i_mire/content/201510040007-eoik.htm
JammingtheJihad:RussianElectronicWarfareSystemsSpottedinSyria
http://sputniknews.com/world/20151005/1028033057/syria-russia-electronic-warfare-systems.html#ixzz3nhT5uCdp
RussianandIsraeliaircraftnarrowlyavoiddueloverSyriancoast
http://www.airlive.net/2015/10/alert-russian-and-israeli-aircraft.html
DidaRussianSu-24FencerdropaclusterbomboverAleppo?
http://theaviationist.com/2015/10/05/russian-cluster-bombs-over-aleppo/
VideoRBK-500-SPBE-D
http://youtu.be/b8cO1FKoN8g
KremlinSaysRussianVolunteerForcesWillFightinSyria
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/06/world/europe/nato-russia-warplane-turkey.html?smid=tw-share
http://www.interfax.ru/russia/471231
PossibleRussianvolunteerstofightinSyria.
KadyrovasksPutintoallowChecheninfantrytofightinSyria
http://www.rt.com/politics/317393-this-will-be-holiday-kadyrov/
Effectsofthedeployment
MoscowscuppersUScoalitionplansforno-flyzoneinSyria
AlongsideamodestLatakia-basedcontingentoftwodozenSu-24FencerandSu-25FrogfootjetsplanesdesignedtostrikelandtargetsMoscowhas
deployedassetswhichrendertheprospectofno-flyzonesenforcedbytheUSoritsalliesoverSyriaimpossibletoenact.
Justweeksago,aftermonthsofdiplomacy,officialswereclosetoanagreementonenforcingaerialsafe-zonestoendtheAssadregimesbombingofciviliansin
northernandsouthernSyria,accordingtodiplomatsandmilitaryofficialsintheUS-ledcoalition.TheagreementwasbasedonJordanianandTurkishplans
presentedearlierthisyear.
ManyofficialsbelieveanimminentmovetorampupcoalitionactivityinSyriaprecipitatedtheKremlinssuddeninterventionlatelastmonth.
TheultimatereasonallthisishappeningisbecauseoftherenewedfocusonSyriaandtheneedforsomesortofpoliticalsolutiontheresomethingwhichwe
thoughtwecouldachievebyenforcingno-flyzones,safezones,saidoneseniorEuropeandiplomat.
Butanyhopesofmilitaryco-ordinationwithRussiatoachievethis,eveninthewakeofitsdisruptivedeployment,areswiftlybeingdashed.
NatossuprememilitarycommanderinEurope,USGeneralPhillipBreedlovewarnedlastweekthatthealliancewasworriedaboutanotherA2/ADbubble
beingcreatedintheeasternMediterranean.A2/ADstandsforanti-access,areadenial.
GenBreedlovesfearshavebeenrealisedinthepastdaysasRussiassmalldeploymentoffourSu-30flankerjets,whichareatLatakiasBasselal-Assadair
basehighlymanoeuvreableaircraftdesignedtoshootdownotheraircrafthasbeenaugmentedwithafarmorepowerfularsenal.
RussiasministryofdefenceannouncedonFridaythedeploymentofitsnavycruisertheMoskvatoLatakia.TheMoskvaisarmedwithacomplementof64S-
300ship-to-airmissiles,Russiasmostpowerfulanti-aircraftweapon.
DeploymentofS-300sorothersimilarlysophisticatedsystems,alsoknownastriple-digitSamshaslongbeenoneofthePentagonsbiggestfearsinthe
MiddleEast.TheS-300system,whichhasanoperatingrangeof150km,iscapableofstrikingdownallbutthemostsophisticatedstealthaircraft.Itmeansmost
missionsflownbyWashingtonscoalitionalliesJordan,forexample,usesF-16jetsarenowhighlyvulnerable.EventheUKsdeploymentofTornadosand
TyphoonsattheRoyalAirForcesbaseatAkrotiri,Cyprus,isthreatenedbythemissiles.
TheRussianforcesnowinplacemakeitvery,veryobviousthatanykindofno-flyzoneontheLibyanmodelimposedbytheUSandalliesisnowimpossible,
unlessthecoalitionisactuallywillingtoshootdownRussianaircraft,saysJustinBronk,researchanalystattheRoyalUnitedServicesInstitute.
TheRussiansarenotplayingballatdeconflictiontheyarejustsaying,keepoutofourway.ThecoalitionsoperationsinSyriawillbevastlymorecomplex
fromariskassessmentpointofviewandfromamission-planningpointofview.
EvensurveillancemissionsaboveSyriabyUSandcoalitionaircraftwillbecomplicated.OneNatoairforceofficersaidtheorganisationexpectedtostartseeing
thekindofcoldwartacticsandbrinkmanshipRussiahasrecentlybeenusingintheBaltics.PilotswillbebriefedtoexpectpowerfulRussianradarsystems
lightinguptheiraircraftinshowsofstrength,hesaid
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/cee6fcba-69bf-11e5-8171-ba1968cf791a.html#ixzz3nhTrhZnT
RussiaBombsRescuersinSyria
Double-tapairstrikekillsWhiteHelmet
http://warisboring.com/articles/russia-bombs-rescuers-in-syria/?mc_cid=b9ef6c05fd&mc_eid=7fbc580ab1
Russia'sairstrikesinSyriaareplayingwellathome
http://www.stripes.com/news/europe/russia-s-airstrikes-in-syria-are-playing-well-at-home-1.371767
PerfectconditionsforairstrikesonSyria,saysweatherforecasteronRussianTV
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/oct/05/perfect-weather-for-airstrikes-russian-tv-forecast-sets-sights-on-syria
SplitoverAssad,ArabstatesmumonRussia'sSyriastrikes
http://news.yahoo.com/split-over-assad-arab-states-mum-russias-syria-151908092.html
IraqwouldwelcomeRussianairstrikesagainstISIS
http://www.airforcetimes.com/story/military/2015/10/05/russian-airstrikes-against-isis-welcomed-iraq-islamic-state/73386916/
USresponse
U.S.AimstoPutMorePressureonISISinSyria
PresidentObamalastweekapprovedtwoimportantstepstosettheoffensiveinmotionoverthecomingweeks,officialssaid.Mr.ObamaorderedthePentagon,
forthefirsttime,todirectlyprovideammunitionandperhapssomeweaponstoSyrianoppositionforcesontheground.Healsoendorsedtheideaforan
increasedaircampaignfromanairbaseinTurkey,althoughimportantdetailsstillneedtobeworkedout.
MembersoftheIraqimilitarytrainedinBaghdadinJuly,duringavisitbyDefenseSecretaryAshtonB.Carter.AtanewsconferenceonFriday,President
ObamasaidcriticsofhisSyriapolicyofferedonlyhalf-bakedideasasalternatives.NewsAnalysis:SyriaExposesSplitBetweenObamaandClintonOCT.3,
2015
PresidentVladimirV.PutinofRussia,inParisonFridayforasummitmeetingwithWesternleadersonUkraine.Thatconflicthaslatelybeenovershadowedby
theinterventioninSyria.
Together,thesemeasuresareintendedtoempower3,000to5,000Arabfighterswhowouldjoinmorethan20,000Kurdishcombatantsinanoffensivebacked
bydozensofcoalitionwarplanestopressureRaqqa,theIslamicStatesmainstrongholdinSyria.PlansarealsomovingforwardtohaveSyrianopposition
fighterssealanimportant60-milepartofthecountrysborderwithTurkeytocutoffcriticalsupplylinesoftheIslamicState,alsoknownasISISorISIL.
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/05/world/middleeast/us-aims-to-put-more-pressure-on-isis-in-syria.html
IncursionintoTurkishairspace
RussianSu-30SM,Su-24violateTurkishairspace.FlankerlocksonTuAFF-16for+5minutes
http://theaviationist.com/2015/10/05/russian-su-30sm-su-24-violate-turkish-airspace-flanker-locks-on-tuaf-f-16-for-5-minutes/
Syriaconflict:Turkishjets'interceptRussianplane'
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34441201
TwoTurkishfighterjetsharassedonSyrianborder:Army
http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/two-turkish-fighter-jets-harassed-on-syrian-border-army.aspx?pageID=238&nID=89403&NewsCatID=352
RussiasaysviolationofTurkishairspacewasnavigationerror
http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/Default.aspx?pageID=238&nID=89387&NewsCatID=352
Russia:BadWeatherCausedJetToViolateTurkishAirspace
http://www.defensenews.com/story/defense/international/europe/2015/10/05/russia-bad-weather-caused-jet-violate-turkish-airspace/73394304/
NATOSecretaryGeneralonviolationsofTurkishairspacebyRussiancombataircraft,5OCT2015
http://youtu.be/vJnJjK2MG40
StatementbytheNorthAtlanticCouncilonincursionsintoTurkeysairspacebyRussianaircraft
http://nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_123392.htm
Syriawarexplained
Viewpoint:West'walkingintoabyss'onSyria
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-34371501
Syriaexplainer:thealliesandtheenemies
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/9a55afe2-6b49-11e5-aca9-d87542bf8673.html#axzz3njedbMqz
Iran
U.S.enforcementofIranarmsembargoslippedduringnucleartalks:sources
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/05/us-iran-sanctions-enforcement-insight-idUSKCN0RZ09O20151005
____________________________
NicholasMarsh
ResearchFellow
PeaceResearchInstituteOslo(PRIO)
HausmansGate7
0186Oslo
Norway
email:nic@prio.no
telephone:+4722547772
skype:nicholas.james.marsh
web:www.nisat.org
twitter:@NisatPrio
----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:MartaBurachok<marta.burachok@gmail.com>
Date:Mon,Oct5,2015at10:07PM
Subject:Syriaconflict:TurkeysummonsRussianambassadorasecondtime-BBCNews
To:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34450827
Syriaconflict:TurkeysummonsRussianambassadorasecond
time
EPATheRussiandefenceministrypublishedfootageofitsstrikesonMonday,includingsitesbeinghitbybombs(topleft)
TurkeyhasagainsummonedtheRussianambassadorafterasecondviolationofitsairspacebyaRussianwarplaneoperatinginSyria
intwodays.
ItdidthesameafterthefirstviolationonSaturday,afterwhichtwoTurkishF-16jetswerescrambled.
TurkeysaidthesecondviolationoccurredonSunday.
NatohasurgedRussiatoendairstrikes"ontheSyrianoppositionandcivilians".RussiasaysitistargetingIslamicStateandotherIslamists.
RussiasaidSaturday'sviolationwasforjustafewsecondsandduetopoorweather.IthasnotofficiallyreactedtoSunday'sincident.
Saturday'sinterceptiontookplacenearYayladagiinthesouthernHatayregion,Turkeysays.
AstatementbyNato's28members,whichincludeTurkey,warnedof"theextremedangerofsuchirresponsiblebehaviour"andurgedRussia"to
ceaseanddesist".
USSecretaryofStateJohnKerrysaidTurkeywouldhavebeenwithinitsrightstoshootthejetsdown.
----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:alexander<lesykb@hotmail.com>
Date:Mon,Oct5,2015at10:33PM
Subject:UkeNewsUpdate#813['Unacceptable'RussianIncursion']
To:wazWAZ<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,"drdenny324@gmail.com"<drdenny324@gmail.com>,31MORE
NATODenounces'Unacceptable'RussianIncursionIntoTurkey
Reuters
Oct.05201510:36
TheUnitedStatesanditsNATOalliesdenouncedRussiaonMondayforviolatingTurkishairspacealongthefrontierwithSyria,andAnkarathreatened
torespondifprovokedagain,raisingtheprospectofdirectconfrontationbetweentheColdWarenemies.
NATOsummonedtheambassadorsofits28memberstatesforanemergencymeetingtorespondtowhatSecretary-GeneralJensStoltenberg
called"unacceptableviolationsofTurkishairspace."
Moscow'sunexpectedmovelastweektolaunchairstrikesinSyriahasbroughtthegreatestthreatofanaccidentalclashbetweenRussianand
WesternforcessincetheColdWar.
RussianwarplanesandthoseoftheUnitedStatesanditsalliesarenowflyingcombatmissionsoverthesamecountryforthefirsttimesinceWorld
WarII,withMoscowrepeatedlytargetinginsurgentstrainedandarmedbyWashington'sallies.
TurkeyisoneofAssad'sfiercestfoesintheregion,hasbyfarthebiggestarmyontheborderwithSyriaandhastakeninthelargestnumberof
refugees.
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/nato-denounces-unacceptable-russian-incursion-into-turkey/536980.html
----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>
Date:Mon,Oct5,2015at8:12PM
Subject:BlackSwan>TurkeyThreatenstoShootDownRussianPlanesthatStrayfromSyria(OHBOY!!!)[ED:THATISWD'S"OHBOY!!"]
To:WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>,wolodymyrzarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>,WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
TurkeyThreatenstoShootDownRussianPlanesthatStrayfromSyria
TheairovertheSyrian-Turkishborderisgettingcrowdedwithwarplanes,andtensionsaregrowing.
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/10/05/turkey-threatens-to-shoot-down-russian-planes-that-stray-from-syria.html?via=ios
From:WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>
Date:Mon,Oct5,2015at10:02PM
Subject:PutinreportedlysettouseRussiangroundtroopstobackupAssad'sforcesinSyriavs.NOplansforRUconbattroopsinSyriafornow
(60MInutesLastSunday)
To:WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>,wolodymyrzarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>,WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
Escalation:PutinreportedlysettouseRussiangroundtroopstobackupAssadsforcesinSyria
http://hotair.com/archives/2015/10/05/escalation-putin-reportedly-set-to-use-russian-ground-troops-to-back-up-assads-forces-in-syria/
----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>
Date:Mon,Oct5,2015at6:29PM
Subject:PutinhassentthefearedSpetsnazspecialforcesintoSyriatobailoutAssad
To:WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>,wolodymyrzarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>,WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
PutinhassentthefearedSpetsnazspecialforcesintoSyriatobailoutAssad
21:00,5OCT2015
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/
RussiahassentitscrackspecialtroopsintoSyriatobackupPresidentBasharal-Assadsbidtowipeouthisopposition.
VladimirPutinsfearedSpetsnazunitandacovertparabattalionghostedintothewar-torncountryandarepreparingforanall-outassaultonrebelsfightingthe
regimeincludingmoderateunitssuchasthewestern-backedFreeSyrianArmy.
Amilitarysourcesaidlastnight:Putinsmarinesaretheretoguardtheairbasestheyareusingagainstsabotagebyrebels.ButSpetsnazandair-assaulttroopsare
nottheretoprovidesecuritytostaticobjects,theyareextremelyaggressiveandhighlytrained.
Theyaretheretomopupafterairstrikes,callinairstrikes,goonextremelycovertmissionsagainstrebelsandultimatelywipethemout.
AndtheywillnotbeasaccountableasBritishorUSspecialforces.Theyarethereforonereason,towipeoutanyonethreateningAssad.Byanymeans.And
bydoingthattheywillbeconsolidatingRussiaspositionontheMedandintheMiddleEast.
PutinclaimsthemissionistodefeatISbuthiswarplaneshavebeenhelpingAssadbysmashingrebelpositions.MostofthetargetsinNorthernSyriahavebeen
al-Qaedaaffiliatesorlessextremerebelgroupsopposedtotheleader,someofwhichareCIA-trainedandMI6-backed.
SpetsnazSpecialPurposeSoldiershavebeenjoinedbythe7thAirAssaultMountainDivision.
TheyareamongRussiastoughestandmostshadowytroops,manyofwhomhavefoughtdirtywarsinChechnyawheretheybuiltupadeephatredofjihadists.
TheywentonbloodyrevengemissionsagainstlocaljihadunitstopunishthemforatrocitiesagainstRussiantroopsandcivilians.
AmericahasvowedtostepupitsattacksonISinreactiontoPutinsairstrikesonAssadsopponents.AndNatoyesterdayurgedRussiatoenditsrebelattacks
andfocusonbeatingIS.
SaudiclericscalledonMuslimcountriestobackholywaragainstSyriaanditsIranianandRussianbackers.TheSunni-ruledlandissuspectedofsupportingal-
QaedaandISagainstShiasupportersofAssad.SaudihasjoinedairstrikesonISinSyria.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/
----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>
Date:Mon,Oct5,2015at9:06PM
Subject:Politics:IwilldefendChristianityaroundtheworld,says...VladimirPutin?[OhBOY!!!Nowweareinrealtrouble!!!WD][ED:ANYONEforthe
"AGEOFTHEFALSEPROPHET]
To:WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>,wolodymyrzarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>,WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
Politics:IwilldefendChristianityaroundtheworld,says...VladimirPutin?
ImageCredit:
Publishedby:DanCalabreseonMondayOctober5th,2015
http://www.caintv.com/i-will-defend-christianity-aro
Da.
Afriendofminerespondedtotheheadlineasfollows:"Hitlersaidthesamethingin1933."
Lestyougetconceptsconfused,Idon'tthinkPutinistalkingaboutridinginshirtlessonahorsetodefendtherightsofChristianbakeriesandflorists,nortosave
thewould-bevictimsofChristian-hatinggunmen.Butthethreathereferencesisnotinsiginificant,existingmainlyofcourseintheMiddleEastandcomingfrom
radicalIslamistsources.TheChristianPostreportsthatmanyChristiansinSyriaarepleasedtoseePutininterveningonBasharAssad'sbehalfbecausethey
figuretheirlotisbetterwithAssadthenitwouldlikelybewithwhoevermightreplacehim.ThesubsequentpresentationofPutinasabigsupporterofChristiansin
generalisabitrichtosaytheleast:
Afterdeliveringthefacts,MetropolitanHilarionaskedPutintomakeprotectionanddefenseofChristianityaroundtheglobeamajorpartofhisforeignpolicy.
And,asreportedbyInterfax,Putinreplied,"Youneedn'thaveanydoubtthatthat'sthewayitwillbe,"assuringHilarionthatRussianforeignpolicywoulddefend
Christiansfrompersecutionabroad.
Putin'srecentactionsseemtoconfirmhispromise.Lastweek,PutinvetoedaU.N.motioncallingforSyrianleaderBasharal-Assadtostepdown.Syrian
Christiansreceivedthisasgoodnews.AssadisoftheAlawitesectofIslam.AlawitesandChristiansarebothreligiousminoritiesinSyria.SyrianChristiansfeel
thatsharingthisminoritystatusmeansAssadwillprovidethemwithprotection.ASyrianChristianwomaneventoldTheGlobalPost,"ThankGodforRussia.
WithoutRussiawearedoomed."
PutinhaslongbeenasupporterofChristianityandChristianvalueswithinRussia.HehascalledfortheChurchtoplayalargerroleincitizens'sociallives,better
religionclassesinschools,andtelevisionprogramsemphasizingreligiousvalues.
It'snewstomethatblatantlandgrabs,cronycapitalismandsuppressionofpoliticaldissentwereChristianvalues,butmaybetheRussianBibletranslationsarea
littledifferent.
Buthere'swhatyoucan'tdeny:Peoplewhofeelthreatenedwillgravitatetowardsomeonetheythinkmighthavethestrengthandthetemerity-ifnotnecessarily
thevirtue-toprotectthem.Who'sgoingtodothatinWashington?ObviouslynotBarackObama,whocan'tevenbringhimselftomentionthattheOregonmass
shootertargetedChristians,butwillbeonlytoohappytocastigateChristiansoverstuffthathappenedmorethan1,000yearsago.
Peoplewilllooktoastrongmanwhentheyfeelthereisnovirtuous,principledleaderavailable.YouhearalotofAmericanconservativesofferingexpressionsof
respectforPutinbecause,unlikeObama,he'sseriousandaggressiveinthepursuitofhisgeopoliticalgoals-whicharealwaysintheserviceofRussia'sstrategic
interestsatleastasheseesthem.
I'velongsaidthisisamistake.It'sonethingtogivegrudgingrespecttoyouradversaryforhisobviousskills,butit'squiteanothertocrossthelineintoadmiring
theguyjustbecausehestandsinsuchstarkcontrasttoyourownweakanddisappointingleader.Putinisstillaforceformalevolencearoundtheglobe,aligning
himselfwiththemadmullahsinIran,thedespotinSyriaandeventhemonsterinNorthKorea.Ifhehadhisway,we'dsaythereconstitutionoftheSovietUnion-
anddoesanyonerememberhowthatworkedoutforChristiansthefirsttimearound?
Alsokeepinmind:PutinisorderingbombingraidsinSyria,buthe'snottargetingISISoritsallies.He'stargetingtherebelswhoweretrainedbytheU.S.Tellthe
nextChristianwho'sabouttobebeheadedbyISISthatPutinistheretoprotecthim.
Thebottomlineisthis:ThereisnosubstituteforAmericangloballeadership,andwhenit'sAWOL-asitisrightnow-weoftenmakethemistakeofseeking
subsititutesthatcomeintheformofprettyunsavorycharacters.Andremember:BarackObamamaynotbewillingtostandupforChristians,butGodis.Idon't
alwaysknowhowHe'sgoingtodoit,butI'lltakeHisprotectionoverthatofVladimirPutinanyday-andyoushouldtoo
From: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 10/08/201501:50:50AM
To: WayneAllensworth<swallen@1scom.net>ChrisBort<chris.bort@gmail.com>
GoodStufffromKotkin:ReviewofMyers(Ultimately,Mr.Putin'stacticalcoupscannotconcealhisfailuretoreviveRussiaasagenuinegreat
Subject:
power)
#3
WallStreetJournal
October6,2015
Russia'sSnarlingStuntman
Russiaisdeclining,withtalentandcapitalinfullflight.Yetdespitethiswretchedhand,VladimirPutinistrumpingthe
West.
BySTEPHENKOTKIN
Mr.Kotkin,authorof"Stalin,"isaPrincetonprofessorandaHooverInstitutionfellowatStanford.
THENEWTSAR
ByStevenLeeMyers
Knopf,572pages,$32.50
Russia'sdeclinecontinues.Beneaththebluster,elitesarejittery.Thepopulaceispridefulbutmiserable.Talent-notjust
capital-isinfullflight.Theregimehasnostrategybeyonditsownsurvival,andVladimirPutinhasbecomeasnarling
stuntmanwithasurgicallyenhancedappearanceandapropaganda-enhancedapprovalrating.
Yetdespitethiswretchedhand,Russia'sautocrathasbeentrumpingtheWest.Justlastweek,afterPresidentObama
gaveaspeechattheUnitedNations,Mr.PutinbeganbombingthepoliticalopponentsoftheSyrianbutcherBasharal-
Assadinthenameofcombating"terrorism."
StevenLeeMyers's"TheNewTsar:TheRiseandReignofVladimirPutin"providesacomprehensivelookatRussia's
would-besaviorandAmerica'snemesis.Muchoftheaccountisfamiliar:thePutinfamily'sshabbycommunalapartment
inpost-WorldWarIILeningradyoungVladimirasanindifferentstudentandcourtyardruffianthesuddendiscipline
instilledbymartialartshisobsessionwiththepopularfilmseries"ShieldandSword"(1968),whichinspiredadreamto
jointheKGB.ThetapontheshoulderthatfulfilledthatdreamcamewhilehewasalawstudentatLeningradState
University.Nextupwasspyschool,acareerpolicingthoughtinLeningradandthenaforeignassignmentinanEast
Germanbackwater.
Mr.Myers,whospentsevenyearsasaNewYorkTimescorrespondentinMoscow,digsthroughanimpressivelywide
rangeofmaterials,gatheringrevealingquotesfromlifelongloyalistsaswellasinsiderswhobrokeranks.Unlikesomany
otherauthorswhotakeonMr.Putin,herefusestocherrypickanecdotesorindulgeindippyconspiracytheories.His
reliable,wealth-of-detailsapproachcapturesthezigsandzagsofMr.Putin'sevolution.
TheimplosionoftheEasternBlocandthenoftheSovietUnionin1989-91meantanewlifeforMr.Putinastopdeputyto
thedemocraticallyelectedmayorofSt.Petersburg,AnatolySobchak.TheKGBoperativetriedtomakeRussia'sversion
ofdemocracywork:WhenrivalsdeployeddirtytrickstofoilSobchak'sre-electioncampaigninthemid-1990s,Mr.Putin
indignantlywrotetoMoscowdemandingthattheKremlintake"decisiveactiontoendtheuseofthelaw-enforcement
authoritiesforpoliticalpurposes."
Hisnaiveappealfellflat,butconnectionssooncatapultedhimintothepresidentialadministrationinMoscow,andin1998
apromotionbyBorisYeltsinmadeMr.PutintheheadoftheKGB'ssuccessoragency.Hisascenttothepresidencyisits
ownsordidtale.
PresidentPutin'sfirstterm(2000-04)brimmedwithhopeandeconomicgrowth.Whenandwhyheabandonedhisefforts
atstructuralreformremainsamatterofcontroversy.
Mr.MyersapprovinglyquotesaletterwrittenbytheimprisonedoilmagnateMikhailKhodorkovskyin2004,inwhichhe
saidthatMr.Putin"isprobablyneitheraliberalnorademocrat,butheisstillmoreliberalanddemocraticthan70percent
ofourcountry'spopulation."ButthisassertionremainsunsubstantiatedbecauseMr.Myers'sbiographydoesn'texamine
Russiansociety.TheauthoralsoseemstolendsomesupporttothepopularnarrativewithinRussiaof"Western
betrayal,"pointingoutthatMr.PutinheldfourmeetingswithPresidentGeorgeW.Bushin2001,andallhegotwasa
week'snoticewhenWashingtonunilaterallyabrogatedtheAnti-BallisticMissileTreaty.Butwhatoftheexperienceof
rebuildingstatepowerinshapingMr.Putin'struculence?WhatoftheperennialconundrumofconfrontingtheWest's
abidingsuperiorityandRussia'sweakness?
FewpeoplewhohavehadabrushwithMr.Putincomeoffwellhere.Afterhisre-electiontoasecondtermin2004,the
investorBillBrowdertoldajournalistthat"peoplewillforgetinsixmonthsthatKhodorkovskyisstillsittinginjail"-andhe
andotherscontinuedtoinvestinthecountry.Similarly,JohnBrowne,thenCEOofBP,ishearddismissingthePutin
regime'sannihilationofMr.Khodorkovsky'sprivateoilcompanyYukoswiththecomment:"Nocountryhascomesofarin
suchashortspaceoftime."(BPlaterpartneredwithRosneft,thecompanythatstoleYukos.)
Mr.MyerslaysbarethehashofGeorgeW.Bush'slook-into-Mr.Putin's-soulRussiapolicy,whichculminatedinthe
consolidationofthepartitionofGeorgiain2008.HethenrecountstheblowupofPresidentBarackObama'sresetRussia
policy.
TheauthorremindsusthatSecretaryofStateHillaryClintonwarnedinDecember2012thatMr.Putin'sproposed
"EurasianUnion"soughttosubjugateitsformerpossessionsandaddedthat"wearetryingtofigureouteffectivewaysto
slowdownorpreventit."Mr.Putinsabotageditforherin2014,whenheseizedCrimeafromUkraine,consolidatinga
strongpro-EuropemajorityinKievandsendingchillsthroughthecapitalsofBelarusandKazakhstan.ButUkraineisnow
dismembered.
Countlesssecondarycharactersareintroducedknowledgeablyhere,butnonecometofull-bloodedlife.Eventhe
protagonistcanseemelusive.ContraMr.Myers,Mr.Putinisnota"tsar."Theambiguityofanysuccessionispotentially
themostdebilitatingaspectofhisrule,asitisforallauthoritarianregimes.Still,Mr.Myers'sportrait-withmaliceasMr.
Putin'sdefiningattribute-isdevastatingpreciselybecauseitisjudiciouslydrawn.
Ultimately,Mr.Putin'stacticalcoupscannotconcealhisfailuretoreviveRussiaasagenuinegreatpower.Atonepoint,
Mr.Myersshows,Mr.Putinhimselfknewbetter."Itseemstoallofus-andIwilladmit,tomesometimesaswell-thatby
imposingstrictorderwithanironfist,wewillallbegintolivebetter,morecomfortably,moresecurely,"Mr.Putinobserved
in2002."Inactualfactthatcomfortwouldveryquicklypassbecausethatironfistwouldveryquicklybegintostrangleus."
From: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 10/03/201501:41:25AM
To: GeneFishel<obolon78@yahoo.com>JohnWilliams<willijp1@yahoo.com>
Subject: MoreevidencewhyMassicotisaneffin'twit(n.b.reactionontheground)
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/2015/10/02/44c1f7fc-6932-11e5-9223-
70cb36460919_story.html?tid=pm_world_pop_b
U.S.willnotdirectlyconfrontRussiainSyria,
Obamasays
PresidentObamahasdecidednottodirectlyconfrontRussiaoveritsnewairoffensiveinSyria,believingthat
PresidentVladimirPutinwillsoonfindhimselfinaSyrianquagmire,buthehasapprovedanewescalationofU.S.
effortsagainsttheIslamicState.
ObamalaidouttheU.S.responsetoRussiasactionsduringameetingwithsenioraidesThursdayevening.Details
werefirmedupinameetingFridaymorningamongnationalsecurityprincipalsattheWhiteHouse,senior
administrationofficialssaid.
Atthesametime,thepresidentalsoapprovedproposals,madepriortothisweeksRussianactions,tostrengthenthe
U.S.fightagainstthemilitants.ThosemeasureswererecommendedbyObamasnewJointChiefsofStaffchairman,
Gen.JosephF.DunfordJr.
TheyincludedirectU.S.weaponsshipments,overlandfromIraq,toSyrianKurdishandArabfighterswhoinrecent
monthshavepushedtheIslamicStatefromamajorportionofnorthernSyriaalongtheTurkishborder.
TheKurdsarenowexpectedtobeginmovingsouthtowardRaqqa,thedefactomilitantcapital,innorth-central
Syria.
U.S.airstrikesarealsoslatedtoincreasewestoftheEuphrates,whereU.S.-backedoppositionforceshavehadlittle
recentsuccessagainsttheIslamicState.ThosestrikesarebeinglaunchedfromIncirlikairbaseinTurkey,where
aircraftfromothercoalitionpartnerswilljoinU.S.planes.
FarfromattackingtheIslamicState,asRussiahassaiditintends,itsthreedaysofairstrikesappeartohavefocused
largelyonoppositionforces,someofthemU.S.-backed,thatarefightingacrosswesternSyriaagainstthearmyof
PresidentBasharal-
Assad,whosegovernmentisbackedbyMoscow.
Obamadidnotresponddirectlytoquestionsaboutwhat,ifanything,hewoulddotohelptheembattledopposition,
whichincludesthousandsoffighterswhohavebeentrainedandarmedovertheyearsbytheCIA,aswellasnon-
IslamicStateextremists.SenioradministrationofficialssaidthattrainingandlimitedsuppliesforthoseinsideSyria
wouldcontinuebutthatthepolicywaslikelytocontinue.
CurrentandformerU.S.officialsvoicedconcernthattheRussianbombingwoulddamageacovertprogramalready
strugglingtogaintractioninthefightagainstAssad.Itisalsolikelytoincreasefrustrationamongtherebelsthatthe
AmericansdontdoasmuchastheRussiansdofortheirsideoftheconflict,saidRobertFord,theformerU.S.
ambassadortoSyriawhoresignedthatpositioninpartoutoffrustrationwithadministrationpolicy.
Rep.AdamSchiff(Calif.),therankingDemocratontheHouseIntelligenceCommittee,saidtheRussianmovereally
upstheantefortheUnitedStates.WedohavegreatreputationalcostsinlettingtheRussiansassertthemselvesand
beseenasamoreforcefulactoronthegroundinSyria.Wealsohaveadeepinterestinprotectingthemoderate
population,andthatsgoingtopushustohavegreaterinvolvement,whichisariskyproposition.
AnydirectmilitaryresponseagainstRussia,aU.S.militaryofficialsaid,wouldprobablyrequirenewpresidential
authorities.ButObama,speakingataWhiteHousenewsconferenceFriday,madeitclearthathehasnointentionof
directlyconfrontingRussianforces.
WerenotgoingtomakeSyriaintoaproxywarbetweentheUnitedStatesandRussia.Thatwouldbeabad
strategyonourpart,Obamasaid.ThisisabattlebetweenRussia,IranandAssadagainsttheoverwhelming
majorityoftheSyrianpeople.OurbattleiswithISIL,hesaid,referringtotheIslamicState.
ObamarespondedangrilytosuggestionsofU.S.weaknessinthefaceofRussianaggression,includingPutins
decisiontolaunchsurpriseairstrikesjusttwodaysaftermeetingwithObamaattheUnitedNations.
Thisisnotsomesuperpowerchessboardcontest,Obamasaid.Mr.PutinhadtogointoSyrianotoutofstrength
butoutofweakness,becausehisclient,Mr.Assad,wascrumbling.
RatherthanbuildingsupportforAssad,aminorityruler,RussiawouldalienateSyriasSunnimajorityandtheSunni-
ruledcountriesintheregionhehasbeentryingtocourt,Obamasaid.
ThepresidentsaidthisattemptbyRussiaandIran,theregimesotherbacker,topropupAssadandtrytopacify
thepopulationisjustgoingtogetthemstuckinaquagmire.Anditwontwork.Andtheywillbethereforawhileif
theydonttakeadifferentcourse.
AtleastoneseniorRussianofficialnotedthatRussiahadlearnedduringitsill-fatedoccupationofAfghanistanduring
the1980sthatairstrikesarenotenoughtoholdterritoryalessontheUnitedStateshasalsolearnedmorerecently
inbothSyriaandIraq.
WithoutanimmediategroundoperationbytheweakenedSyrianarmytocapturebombedoppositionterritory,the
resultsoftheseairstrikeswillbebroughttonaught,Gen.MakhmutGareyev,presidentoftheAcademyofMilitary
Sciences,said,accordingtotheRussiannewsagencyInterfax.
InaconversationThursdaybetweentheU.S.DefenseDepartmentandRussiasDefenseMinistry,arrangedtode-
conflictthecountriesairoperationsoverSyriaandavoidapossiblecollision,theRussiansrequestedU.S.
intelligenceonpossibleIslamicStatetargets,accordingtoasenioradministrationofficial,oneofseveralwho
discussedinternaldiscussionsontheconditionofanonymity.
TheanswerwegaveisthatwecannotcoordinatewithyouifyourefightingtheSyrianopposition....Werenot
goingtomaketheirtaskanyeasieriftheirfightisthewrongfight,theofficialsaid.DuringtheirU.N.conversation,
theofficialsaid,ObamatoldPutinthatifyourenotinterestedinfightingtheIslamicState,whattypeofpossible
engagementcouldtherebebetweenthem?Inhisnewsconference,Obamaalsodefendedhisdecisionstonot
directlyinterveneinSyriascivilwaroverthepastfouryears.AndwhenIhearpeopleofferinguphalf-bakedideas
asiftheyaresolutions,ortryingtodownplaythechallengesinvolvedinthissituationwhatIdliketoseepeople
askis,specifically,precisely,whatexactlywouldyoudo,andhowwouldyoufundit,andhowwouldyousustainit?
Andtypically,whatyougetisabunchofmumbojumbo,hesaid.
WearegoingtocontinuetogoafterISIL.Wearegoingtocontinuetoreachouttoamoderateopposition,Obama
said.
TheCIAhasprovidedthethousandsoffightersithastrainedatsecretbasesinJordanwithcommunications
equipment,intelligencesupportandarms,includingantitankmissiles.ThoseCIA-backedfightersreenteredSyria
acrossthatcountryssouthernborderwithJordan,butmanyhavemadetheirwayintounitsthatarenowarrayed
northandeastofDamascusareasthathavebeenpoundedbyRussianstrikesoverthepastseveraldays.
AformerseniorU.S.intelligenceofficialsaidtheU.S.failuretorespondtothestrikesorbolstersupportforCIA-
trainedunitsislikelytoangerCIAparamilitaryteamsintheregionthathaveforseveralyearschafedatWhiteHouse-
imposedlimitsonthelevelofsupportgiventomoderaterebelgroups.
Thereisahugeamountoffrustrationwiththeindecisionandabilitytocommitbythisadministration,saidaformer
seniorU.S.intelligenceofficialwithextensiveexperienceintheMiddleEast.Theagencyhasaproblem,theformer
officialsaid.U.S.-backedfighterslookattheCIAorDODtrainersasreflectingtheU.S.government.Theybelieve
thatweknowwhatsgoingonandcaninfluencewhatsgoingon.Ifwerenotinfluencingit,itmakestheminsecure.
Theywilldefect,gohomeorjointherefugeestreamheadingtoEurope.
ThecurrentandformerofficialsalsoexpressedconcernthattheRussianstrikeswouldpromptrebelgroupsto
intensifytheireffortstoacquireantiaircraftweaponry,includingsurface-to-airmissilesmunitionstheUnitedStates
hasworkedtokeepoutofSyriaforfearthattheywouldbeseizedbyal-QaedaortheIslamicState.
TheCIAoperationhaslargelyavoidedtheblundersthathavebesettheseparatelyrunPentagonefforttoarmand
trainrebelstofighttheIslamicState,aprogramthathasseenitsfightersquicklycapturedandsurrenderingtheir
weaponstoanal-Qaedaaffiliate.Evenso,theCIAprogramhasfailedtoshiftthecourseoftheconflictinSyria,and
agency-backedfightershavelongcomplainedabouttheU.S.refusaltoprovidemorepowerfulweapons,airsupport
orno-flyzones.
FormersecretaryofstateHillaryRodhamClinton,whoisseekingtheDemocraticpresidentialnomination,said
ThursdaythattheUnitedStatesshouldcreateno-flyzonesandhumanitariancorridorstoprotectciviliansand
moderateanti-
AssadrebelsinSyria.
ObamasaidClintonisnothalf-bakedintermsofherapproachtotheseproblems.But,hesaid,theresa
differencebetweenrunningforpresidentandbeingpresident.Andthedecisionsthatarebeingmadeandthe
discussionsthatImhavingwiththeJointChiefsbecomemuchmorespecificandrequire,Ithink,adifferentkindof
judgment.
Ifandwhenshespresident,thenshellmakethosejudgments,Obamasaid,addingthatthesearetoughcalls.
MissyRyanandStevenMufsoncontributedtothisreport.
From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 10/03/201510:03:51AM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
Subject: FW:[Newpost]WatchthisinterestingvideooftheRussianplanes(withRedStarpaintedover)atworkinSyria
From:GlenHoward[mailto:howard@jamestown.org]
Sent:Friday,October02,20152:59PM
To:AdelBashqawiAhmedHashimJonChickyNickHerasMichaelWSRyanjakekippMatthewCzekajClintonSmullyanJrRob
SpringEerikKrosssocor@jamestown.orgIyadYougharTemuriYakobashviliTraininblankJohnBDunlop
<Bohdan.Kupych@kmcore.com>CharlesLannanRomanMashovets
Subject:Fwd:[Newpost]WatchthisinterestingvideooftheRussianplanes(withRedStarpaintedover)atworkinSyria
Interestingvideo.ArticlenotestheRussianshaveerasedtheRussianflagandREDstarfromtheirfighterplanes.Besuretonote
howRTsaystheRussianpilotsarebeingespeciallycarefulnottohurtcivilians.TheexcellentWSJarticleonthebombing
campaigntodayalsoreportedthattheRussianswereflyingnightraids,inadditiontoflyingduringtheday.Syriansneverflyat
night.
----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:TheAviationist<donotreply@wordpress.com>
Date:Fri,Oct2,2015at4:44PM
Subject:[Newpost]WatchthisinterestingvideooftheRussianplanes(withRedStarpaintedover)atworkinSyria
To:howard@jamestown.org
DavidCenciottiposted:"TakealookatwhathappensinsideLatakiaairbase,wheretheRussianAirForcecontingentisbased.
ThefollowingexclusivevideobyRTbringsyouinsideal-AssadInternationalAirport,nearLatakia,whereRussianAirForce
contingent,currentlymadeof"
NewpostonTheAviationist
WatchthisinterestingvideooftheRussianplanes(withRedStarpaintedover)
atworkinSyria
byDavidCenciotti
Takealookatwhathappensinside
Latakiaairbase,wheretheRussianAir
Forcecontingentisbased.
ThefollowingexclusivevideobyRTbringsyouinsideal-AssadInternationalAirport,near
Latakia,whereRussianAirForcecontingent,currentlymadeof36combatplanes,is
based.
ThefootageisextremelyinterestingasitclearlyshowsthesixSu-34Fullbackaircraft
returningfromthefirstcombatsortiesagainstIslamicStatetargetsinSyria.
Acloserlookatthewarplanesprovidestheconfirmationthatalltheaircraft,includingthe
Su-25sandtheSu-34s,wereremovedthestandardRussianAirForcemarkingsandthe
typicalRedStar:mostprobablytheRussiansdon'twanttheirsymboltobeshownoff
alongwiththewreckageofaplaneincaseoneisshotdownorcrashesinSyria.
Bytheway,theinsigniawereoverpaintedontheSu-30SMsandtheSu-24Msaswell,
evenifthesearenotclearlyvisibleinthisvideohowevertherearescreenshotsinthe
socialmediathatprovethesameappliestoFlankersandFencers.
Thisisnotthefirsttimeaircrafttakingpartinrealoperationsarestrippedofftheir
nationalmarkings.UAEF-16sdeployedtoJordantotakepartinOperationInherent
Resolvedidn'twearthenationalflagwhilesomeU.S.dronesdeployedinsensitiveareas
performtheirclandestinemissionsunmarked.
Relatedarticles
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SatelliteimageshowsfourRussianSu-30SMparkedintheopenairatairfieldinSyria
OnlineflighttrackingprovidesinterestingdetailsaboutRussianairbridgetoSyria
NewvideomayshowRussianIl-78tankerescortedbySu-24FencerjetsoverSyriatoday
Here'showtheRussianAirForcemoved28aircrafttoSyria(almost)undetected
RarevideoshowsRussianAirForceTu-160BlackjackbombersactivityintheArctic
Here'sastunningvideo(includingcockpitfootage)oftheawesomeSukhoiSu-30SM
DavidCenciotti|October2,2015at9:43pm|Tags:Islamicstate,Latakia,RussianAirForce,
Su-34Fullback,SukhoiSu-24,SukhoiSu-25|Categories:RogueStates,Russia,Syria,Waron
ISIS|URL:http://wp.me/p2TYIs-8NQ
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