Effects of global warming 1

Effects of global warming

This article is about the effects of
global warming and climate change.[2]
The effects, or impacts, of climate
change may be physical, ecological,
social or economic. Evidence of
observed climate change includes the
instrumental temperature record, rising
sea levels, and decreased snow cover
in the Northern Hemisphere.[3]
According to IPCC (2007a:10),
"[most] of the observed increase in
global average temperatures since the
mid-20th century is very likely due to
the observed increase in [human
greenhouse gas] concentrations". It is
predicted that future climate changes
will include further global warming
(i.e., an upward trend in global mean
temperature), sea level rise, and a
probable increase in the frequency of
some extreme weather events.
Signatories of the United Nations Graphical description of risks and impacts of climate change by IPCC (2001). A revision
[1]
Framework Convention on Climate of this figure by Smith et al.. (2009) shows increased risks.

Change have agreed to implement

policies designed to reduce their emissions of greenhouse gases.

Overview

- Global mean surface temperature difference from the average for 1880-2009

- Mean surface temperature change for the period 1999 to 2008 relative to the average
temperatures from 1940 to 1980
Over the last hundred years or so, the instrumental temperature record has shown a trend in climate of increased
global mean temperature, i.e., global warming. Other observed changes include Arctic shrinkage, Arctic methane
release, releases of terrestrial carbon from permafrost regions and Arctic methane release in coastal sediments, and
sea level rise.[4] [5] Global average temperature is predicted to increase over this century, with a probable increase in
Effects of global warming 2

frequency of some extreme weather events, and changes in rainfall patterns. Moving from global to regional scales,
there is increased uncertainty over how climate will change. The probability of warming having unforeseen
consequences increases with the rate, magnitude, and duration of climate change.[6] Some of the physical impacts of
climate change are irreversible at continental and global scales.[7] With medium confidence, IPCC (2007b:17)
concluded that with a global average temperature increase of 14C, (relative to 19902000) partial deglaciation of
the Greenland ice sheet would occur over a period of centuries to millennia.[8] Including the possible contribution of
partial deglaciation of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, sea level would rise by 46 m or more.
The impacts of climate change across world population will not be distributed evenly (Smith et al., 2001:957).[9]
Some regions and sectors are expected to experience benefits while others will experience costs. With greater levels
of warming (greater than 23C by 2100, relative to 1990 temperature levels), it is very likely that benefits will
decline and costs increase (IPCC, 2007b:17). Low-latitude and less-developed areas are probably at the greatest risk
from climate change (Schneider et al.., 2007:781).[10] With human systems, adaptation potential for climate change
impacts is considerable, although the costs of adaptation are largely unknown and potentially large. In a literature
assessment, Schneider et al.. (2007:792) concluded, with high confidence, that climate change would likely result in
reduced diversity of ecosystems and the extinction of many species.

Definition of climate change

This article refers to reports produced by the IPCC. In their usage, "climate change" refers to a change in the state of
the climate that can be identified by changes in the mean and/or variability of its properties, and that persists for
extended periods, typically decades or longer (IPCC, 2007d:30).[11] The climate change referred to may be due to
natural causes or the result of human activity.

Physical impacts
This section describes some physical impacts of climate change. For some of these physical impacts, their effect on
social and economic systems are also described.

Effects on weather
Increasing temperature is likely to lead to increasing precipitation [12] [13] but the effects on storms are less clear.
Extratropical storms partly depend on the temperature gradient, which is predicted to weaken in the northern
hemisphere as the polar region warms more than the rest of the hemisphere.[14]

Extreme weather
IPCC (2007a:8) predicted that in the future, over most land areas, the frequency of warm spells or heat waves would
very likely increase.[3] Other likely changes are listed below:
Increased areas will be affected by drought
There will be increased intense tropical cyclone activity
There will be increased incidences of extreme high sea level (excluding tsunamis)

Increased freshwater flow

Research based on satellite observations, published in October, 2010, shows an increase in the flow of freshwater
into the world's oceans, partly from melting ice and partly from increased precipitation driven by an increase in
global ocean evaporation. The increase in global freshwater flow, based on data from 1994 to 2006, was about 18%.
Much of the increase is in areas which already experience high rainfall. One effect, as perhaps experienced in the
2010 Pakistan floods, is to overwhelm flood control infrastructure.[15]
Effects of global warming 3

Local climate change

Regional effects of global warming vary in nature. Some are the result
of a generalised global change, such as rising temperature, resulting in
local effects, such as melting ice. In other cases, a change may be
related to a change in a particular ocean current or weather system. In
such cases, the regional effect may be disproportionate and will not
necessarily follow the global trend.
There are three major ways in which global warming will make
changes to regional climate: melting or forming ice, changing the
hydrological cycle (of evaporation and precipitation) and changing
currents in the oceans and air flows in the atmosphere. The coast can
also be considered a region, and will suffer severe impacts from sea
level rise. The first recorded South Atlantic hurricane,
"Catarina", which hit Brazil in March 2004

Biogeochemical cycles
Climate change may have an effect on the carbon cycle in an interactive "feedback" process . A feedback exists
where an initial process triggers changes in a second process that in turn influences the initial process. A positive
feedback intensifies the original process, and a negative feedback reduces it (IPCC, 2007d:78).[11] Models suggest
that the interaction of the climate system and the carbon cycle is one where the feedback effect is positive (Schneider
et al.., 2007:792).[10]
Using the A2 SRES emissions scenario, Schneider et al.. (2007:789) found that this effect led to additional warming
by 2100, relative to the 1990-2000 period, of 0.1 to 1.5 C. This estimate was made with high confidence. The
climate projections made in the IPCC Forth Assessment Report of 1.1 to 6.4 C account for this feedback effect. On
the other hand, with medium confidence, Schneider et al.. (2007) commented that additional releases of GHGs were
possible from permafrost, peat lands, wetlands, and large stores of marine hydrates at high latitudes.

Glacier retreat and disappearance

IPCC (2007a:5) found that, on average, mountain glaciers and snow
cover had decreased in both the northern and southern hemispheres.[3]
This widespread decrease in glaciers and ice caps has contributed to
observed sea level rise. With very high or high confidence, IPCC
(2007d:11) made a number of predictions relating to future changes in
glaciers:[11]

Mountainous areas in Europe will face glacier retreat

In Latin America, changes in precipitation patterns and the
A map of the change in thickness of mountain disappearance of glaciers will significantly affect water availability
glaciers since 1970. Thinning in orange and red, for human consumption, agriculture, and energy production
thickening in blue.
In Polar regions, there will be reductions in glacier extent and the
thickness of glaciers.
Effects of global warming 4

Oceans
The role of the oceans in global warming is a complex one. The oceans serve as a sink for carbon dioxide, taking up
much that would otherwise remain in the atmosphere, but increased levels of CO2 have led to ocean acidification.
Furthermore, as the temperature of the oceans increases, they become less able to absorb excess CO2. Global
warming is projected to have a number of effects on the oceans. Ongoing effects include rising sea levels due to
thermal expansion and melting of glaciers and ice sheets, and warming of the ocean surface, leading to increased
temperature stratification. Other possible effects include large-scale changes in ocean circulation.

Acidification
Dissolving CO2 in seawater increases the hydrogen ion (H+) concentration in the ocean, and thus decreases ocean
pH. Caldeira and Wickett (2003) placed the rate and magnitude of modern ocean acidification changes in the context
of probable historical changes during the last 300 million years.[16] Since the industrial revolution began, it is
estimated that surface ocean pH has dropped by slightly more than 0.1 units (on the logarithmic scale of pH;
approximately a 30% increase in H+), and it is estimated that it will drop by a further 0.3 to 0.5 units (more than
doubling ocean H+ concentrations) by 2100 as the oceans absorb more anthropogenic CO2.[16] [17] [18]

Oxygen depletion
The amount of oxygen dissolved in the oceans may decline, with adverse consequences for ocean life.[19] [20]

Sea level rise

IPCC (2007a:5) reported that since 1961, global average sea level had risen at an average rate of 1.8 [1.3 to 2.3]
mm/yr.[3] Between 1993 and 2003, the rate increased above the previous period to 3.1 [2.4 to 3.8] mm/yr. IPCC
(2007a) were uncertain whether the increase in rate from 1993 to 2003 was due to natural variations in sea level over
the time period, or whether it reflected an increase in the underlying long-term trend.
IPCC (2007a:13, 14) projected sea level rise to the end of the 21st century using the SRES emission scenarios.
Across the six SRES marker scenarios, sea level was projected to rise by 18 to 59cm (7.1 to 23.2inches). This
projection was for the time period 2090-2099, with the increase in level relative to average sea levels over the
1980-1999 period. Due to a lack of scientific understanding, this sea level rise estimate does not include all of the
possible contributions of ice sheets (see the section on abrupt or irreversible changes).

Temperature rise
From 1961 to 2003, the global ocean temperature has risen by 0.10 C from the surface to a depth of 700 m. There is
variability both year-to-year and over longer time scales, with global ocean heat content observations showing high
rates of warming for 1991 to 2003, but some cooling from 2003 to 2007.[21] The temperature of the Antarctic
Southern Ocean rose by 0.17 C (0.31 F) between the 1950s and the 1980s, nearly twice the rate for the world's
oceans as a whole.[22] As well as having effects on ecosystems (e.g. by melting sea ice, affecting algae that grow on
its underside), warming reduces the ocean's ability to absorb CO2.
Effects of global warming 5

Social systems

Food supply
Climate change will impact agriculture and food production around the world due to: the effects of elevated CO2 in
the atmosphere, higher temperatures, altered precipitation and transpiration regimes, increased frequency of extreme
events, and modified weed, pest, and pathogen pressure (Easterling et al.., 2007:282).[23] In general, low-latitude
areas are at most risk of having decreased crop yields (Schneider et al.., 2007:790).[10] With low to medium
confidence, Schneider et al.. (2007:787) concluded that for about a 1 to 3C global mean temperature increase (by
2100, relative to the 1990-2000 average level) there would be productivity decreases for some cereals in low
latitudes, and productivity increases in high latitudes. With medium confidence, global production potential was
predicted to:
increase up to around 3C,
very likely decrease above about 3 to 4C.
Most of the studies on global agriculture assessed by Schneider et al.. (2007:790) had not incorporated a number of
critical factors, including changes in extreme events, or the spread of pests and diseases. Studies had also not
considered the development of specific practices or technologies to aid adaptation.

Health
Human beings are exposed to climate change through changing weather patterns (temperature, precipitation,
sea-level rise and more frequent extreme events) and indirectly through changes in water, air and food quality and
changes in ecosystems, agriculture, industry and settlements and the economy (Confalonieri et al.., 2007:393).[24]
According to a literature assessment by Confalonieri et al.. (2007:393), the effects of climate change to date have
been small, but are projected to progressively increase in all countries and regions.
With high confidence, Confalonieri et al.. (2007:393) concluded that climate change had altered the seasonal
distribution of some allergenic pollen species. With medium confidence, they concluded that climate change had:
altered the distribution of some infectious disease vectors
increased heatwave-related deaths
With high confidence, IPCC (2007d:48) projected that:[11]
the health status of millions of people would be affected through, for example, increases in malnutrition;
increased deaths, diseases and injury due to extreme weather events; increased burden of diarrhoeal diseases;
increased frequency of cardio-respiratory diseases due to high concentrations of ground-level ozone in urban
areas related to climate change; and altered spatial distribution of some infectious diseases.
climate change would bring some benefits in temperate areas, such as fewer deaths from cold exposure, and some
mixed effects such as changes in range and transmission potential of malaria in Africa. Overall, IPCC (2007d:48)
expected that benefits would be outweighed by negative health effects of rising temperatures, especially in
developing countries.
With very high confidence, Confalonieri et al. (2007:393) concluded that economic development was an important
component of possible adaptation to climate change. Economic growth on its own, however, was not judged to be
sufficient to insulate the world's population from disease and injury due to climate change. The manner in which
economic growth occurs was judged to be important, along with how the benefits of growth are distributed in
society. Examples of other important factors in determining the health of populations were listed as: education,
health care, and public-health infrastructure.
Effects of global warming 6

Specific health impacts

Malnutrition
With high confidence, Confalonieri et al. (2007) projected that malnutrition would increase due to climate
change.[25] This link is associated with climate variability and change (Confalonieri et al., 2007).[26] Drought
reduces variety in diets and reduces overall consumption. This can lead to micronutrient deficiencies.
The World Health Organization (WHO) (referred to by Confalonieri et al., 2007)[27] conducted a regional and global
assessment to quantify the amount of premature morbidity and mortality due to a range of factors, including climate
change. Projections were made over future climate change impacts. Limited adjustments for adaptation were
included in the estimates based on these projections. Projected relative risks attributable to climate change in 2030
varied by health outcome and region. Risks were largely negative, with most of the projected disease burden due to
increases in diarrhoeal disease and malnutrition. These increases were primarily in low-income populations already
experiencing a large burden of disease.
Extreme events
With high confidence, Confalonieri et al. (2007) projected that climate change would increase the number of people
suffering from death, disease and injury from heatwaves, floods, storms, fires and droughts.[25]
Floods and weather disasters
Floods are low-probability, high-impact events that can overwhelm physical infrastructure and human communities
(Confalonieri et al., 2007).[28] Major storm and flood disasters have occurred in the last two decades.
The impacts of weather disasters is considerable and unequally distributed. For example, natural disasters have been
shown to result in increased domestic violence against - and post-traumatic stress disorders in women. In terms of
deaths and populations affected, floods and tropical cyclones have the greatest impact in South Asia and Latin
America. Vulnerability to weather disasters depends on the attributes of the person at risk, including where they live
and their age, as well as other social and environmental factors. High-density populations in low-lying coastal
regions experience a high health burden from weather disasters.
Heatwaves
Hot days, hot nights and heatwaves have become more frequent (Confalonieri et al., 2007).[29] Heatwaves are
associated with marked short-term increases in mortality. For example, in August 2003, a heatwave in Europe
resulted in excess mortality in the range of 35,000 total deaths.
Heat-related morbidity and mortality is projected to increase (Confalonieri et al., 2007).[30] The health burden could
be relatively small for moderate heatwaves in temperate regions, because deaths occur primarily in susceptible
persons.
Drought
The effects of drought on health include deaths, malnutrition, infectious diseases and respiratory diseases
(Confalonieri et al., 2007).[26] Countries within the "Meningitis Belt" in semi-arid sub-Saharan Africa experience the
highest endemicity and epidemic frequency of meningococcal meningitis in Africa, although other areas in the Rift
Valley, the Great Lakes, and southern Africa are also affected (Confalonieri et al., 2007).[31] The spatial distribution,
intensity, and seasonality of meningococcal (epidemic) meningitis appear to be strongly linked to climate and
environmental factors, particularly drought. The cause of this link is not fully understood.
Fires
In some regions, changes in temperature and precipitation are projected to increase the frequency and severity of fire
events (Confalonieri et al., 2007).[32] Forest and bush fires cause burns, damage from smoke inhalation and other
injuries.
Infectious disease vectors
Effects of global warming 7

With high confidence, Confalonieri et al. (2007) projected that climate change would continue to change the range of
some infectious disease vectors.[25] Vector-borne diseases (VBD) are infections transmitted by the bite of infected
arthropod species, such as mosquitoes, ticks, triatomine bugs, sandflies, and blackflies (Confalonieri et al., 2007).[33]
There is some evidence of climate-change-related shifts in the distribution of tick vectors of disease, of some
(non-malarial) mosquito vectors in Europe and North America. Climate change has also been implicated in changes
in the breeding and migration dates of several bird species. Several species of wild bird can act as carriers of human
pathogens as well as of vectors of infectious agents.
Dengue
It is possibled that climate change will increase the number of people at risk of dengue (Confalonieri et al., 2007).[25]
Based on the expert judgement of Confalonieri et al. (2007), this projection had about a two-in-ten chance of being
correct. Dengue is the world's most important vector-borne viral disease (Confalonieri et al., 2007).[34] Several
studies have reported associations between dengue and climate, however, these associations are not entirely
consistent.
Malaria
The spatial distribution, intensity of transmission, and seasonalty of malaria is influenced by climate in Sub-saharan
Africa (Confalonieri et al., 2007).[35] Rainfall can be a limiting factor for mosquito populations and there is some
evidence of reductions in transmission associated with decadal decreases in rainfall. The effects of observed climate
change on the geographical distribution of malaria and its transmission intensity in highland regions remains
controversial. There is no clear evidence that malaria has been affected by climate change in South America or in
continental regions of the Russian Federation. There is still much uncertainty about the potential impact of climate
change on malaria at local and global scales.
A paper by researchers from the University of Oxford and the University of Florida published in Nature in May 2010
concluded that claims that a warming climate has led to more widespread disease and death due to malaria are
largely at odds with the evidence, and that "predictions of an intensification of malaria in a warmer world, based on
extrapolated empirical relationships or biological mechanisms, must be set against a context of a century of
warming that has seen marked global declines in the disease and a substantial weakening of the global correlation
between malaria endemicity and climate."[36] [37]
Other infectious diseases
There is good evidence that diseases transmitted by rodents sometimes increase during heavy rainfall and flooding
because of altered patterns of human-pathogen-rodent contact (Confalonieri et al., 2007).[38]
Projections
With very high confidence, Confalonieri et al. (2007) concluded that climate change would have mixed effects on
malaria.[25] Malaria is a complex disease to model and all of the published models assessed by Confalonieri et al.
(2007) had limited parameterization of some key factors.[39] Parametrization is used in climate models because the
resolution of models is insufficient to resolve some physical processes (Randall et al., 2007).[40] Given this
limitation, models assessed by Confalonieri et al. (2007) projected that, particularly in Africa, climate change would
be associated with geographical expansions of the areas suitable for Plasmodium falciparum malaria in some
regions, and contractions in other regions. Projections also suggested that some regions would experience a longer
season of transmission. Projections suggested expansions in vector species that carry dengue for parts of Australia
and New Zealand.
Diarrhoeal diseases
With medium confidence, Confalonieri et al. (2007) concluded that climate change would increase the burden of
diarrhoeal diseases.[25] Childhood mortality due to diarrhoea in low-income countries, especially in Sub-Saharan
Africa, remains high (Confalonieri et al., 2007).[41] This is despite improvements in care. Several studies have shown
that transmission of enteric pathogens is higher during the rainy season. Some studies have found that higher
Effects of global warming 8

temperature was strongly associated with increased episodes of diarrhoeal disease in adults and children in Peru. The
WHO study, referred to earlier, projected that climate change would increase the burden of diarrhoeal diseases in
low-income regions by approximately 2 to 5% in 2020 (Confalonieri et al., 2007).[27]
Ground-level ozone
With high confidence, Confalonieri et al. (2007) projected that climate change would increase cardio-respiratory
morbidity and mortality associated with ground-level ozone.[25] Ground-level ozone is both naturally occurring and
is the primary constituent of urban smog (Confalonieri et al., 2007).[42] Ozone in smog is formed through chemical
reactions involving nitrogen oxides and other compounds. The reaction is a photochemical reaction, meaning that it
involves electromagnetic radiation, and occurs in the presence of bright sunshine and high temperatures. Exposure to
elevated concentrations of ozone is associated with increased hospital admissions for pneumonia, chronic obstructive
pulmonary disease, asthma, allergic rhinitis and other respiratory diseases, and with premature mortality.
Background levels of ground-level ozone have risen since pre-industrial times because of increasing emissions of
methane, carbon monoxide and nitrogen oxides (Confalonieri et al., 2007).[43] This trend is expected to continue into
the mid-21st century.
Cold-waves
It is expected thatb climate change will bring some health benefits (Confalonieri et al., 2007).[25] It is expected that
these benefits will be outweighed by negative climate change effects.
Cold-waves continue to be a problem in northern latitudes, where very low temperatures can be reached in a few
hours and extend over long periods (Confalonieri et al., 2007).[44] Reductions in cold-deaths due to climate change
are projected to be greater than increases in heat-related deaths in the UK (Confalonieri et al., 2007).[30]

Water resources
In a literature assessment, Kundzewicz et al.. (2007:175) concluded, with high confidence, that:[45]
the negative impacts of climate change on freshwater systems outweigh the benefits. All of the regions assessed in
the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (Africa, Asia, Australia and New Zealand, Europe, Latin America, North
America, Polar regions (Arctic and Antarctic), and small islands) showed an overall net negative impact of
climate change on water resources and freshwater ecosystems.
Semi-arid and arid areas are particularly exposed to the impacts of climate change on freshwater. With very high
confidence, it was judged that many of these areas, e.g., the Mediterranean basin, western USA, southern Africa,
and north-eastern Brazil, would suffer a decrease in water resources due to climate change.

Migration and conflict

An argument can be made that rising ethnic conflicts may be linked to competition over natural resources that are
increasingly scarce as a result of climate change (Wilbanks et al.., 2007:365).[46] According to a literature
assessment by Wilbanks et al.. (2007:365), other factors need to be taken into account. It was suggested that major
environmentally influenced conflicts in Africa have more to do with the relative abundance of resources, e.g., oil and
diamonds, than with resource scarcity. On this basis, Wilbanks et al.. (2007:365) suggested that predictions of future
conflicts due climate change should be viewed with caution.
With high confidence, Schneider et al.. (2007:787) predicted that stresses such as increased drought, water shortages,
and riverine and coastal flooding would affect many local and regional populations.[10] With medium confidence, it
was predicted that these stresses would lead, in some cases, to relocation within or between countries. This might
have the effect of exacerbating conflicts, and possibly impose migration pressures.
Zhang et al also concluded that climate change drives conflict.[47]
Effects of global warming 9

Aggregate impacts
Aggregating impacts adds up the total impact of climate change across sectors and/or regions (IPCC, 2007d:76).[11]
The impacts of climate change across world population will not be distributed evenly (Smith et al., 2001:957).[9]
IPCC (2007b:17) found that for increases in global mean temperature of less than 1-3 C above 1990 levels, some
impacts were projected to produce benefits in some places and sectors, and produce costs in other places and
sectors.[8] For some low-latitude and polar regions, net costs were projected for small increases in temperature.
According to IPCC (2007b:17), a temperature increase of greater than about 2-3 C would very likely result in all
regions either experiencing reductions in net benefits or increases in net costs.

Regions
Some regions are likely to be especially affected by climate change (IPCC, 2007d:9):[11]
The Arctic, because of high rates of projected warming.
Africa, especially in the sub-Saharan region. This is due to the continent's low capacity to adapt to climate change
and projected impacts.
Small islands, due to high exposure of population and infrastructure at risk to sea-level rise and increased storm
surge.
Asian megadeltas, due to large populations and high exposure to sea-level rise, storm surge and river flooding.
Within other areas, some people are particularly at risk, such as the poor, young children and the elderly.

Biological systems
With very high confidence, Schneider et al.. (2007:792) concluded that regional temperature trends were already
affecting species and ecosystems around the world.[10] In a literature assessment, Rosenzweig et al.. (2007:81)
concluded that over the last three decades, human-induced warming had likely had a discernable influence on many
physical and biological systems.[48]
Schneider et al.. (2007:792) concluded, with high confidence, that climate change would result in the extinction of
many species and a reduction in the diversity of ecosystems.
Terrestrial ecosystems and biodiversity: With a warming of 3C, relative to 1990 levels, it is likely that global
terrestrial vegetation would become a net source of carbon (Schneider et al.., 2007:792). With high confidence,
Schneider et al.. (2007:788) concluded that a global mean temperature increase of around 4C (above the
1990-2000 level) by 2100 would lead to major extinctions around the globe.
Marine ecosystems and biodiversity: With very high confidence, Schneider et al.. (2007:792) concluded that a
warming of 2C above 1990 levels would result in mass mortality of coral reefs globally.
Freshwater ecosystems: Above about a 4C increase in global mean temperature by 2100 (relative to
1990-2000), Schneider et al.. (2007:789) concluded, with high confidence, that many freshwater species would
become extinct.

Abrupt or irreversible changes

Abrupt climate change
Abrupt climate change is defined as a large-scale change in the climate system that takes place over a few decades or
less, persists (or is anticipated to persist) for at least a few decades, and causes substantial disruptions in human and
natural systems (CCSP, 2008a).[49] There is the possibility of a rapid change in glaciers, ice sheets, and hence sea
level. Predictions of such a change are highly uncertain due to a lack of scientific understanding. Modeling of the
processes associated with a rapid ice sheet and glacier change could potentially increase future projections of sea
level rise.
Effects of global warming 10

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is an important component of the Earth's climate system,
characterized by a northward flow of warm, salty water in the upper layers of the Atlantic and a southward flow of
colder water in the deep Atlantic (CCSP, 2008b, p.5).[50] Potential impacts associated with MOC changes include
reduced warming or (in the case of abrupt change) absolute cooling of northern high-latitude areas near Greenland
and north-western Europe, an increased warming of Southern Hemisphere high-latitudes, tropical drying, as well as
changes to marine ecosystems, terrestrial vegetation, oceanic CO2 uptake, oceanic oxygen concentrations, and shifts
in fisheries (Schneider et al., 2007).[51] According to a assessment by the US Climate Change Science Program
(CCSP, 2008b, p.5), it is very likely that the strength of the AMOC will decrease over the course of the 21st century.
Warming is still expected to occur over most of the European region downstream of the North Atlantic Current in
response to increasing greenhouse gases, as well as over North America. Although it is very unlikely that the AMOC
will collapse in the 21st century, the potential consequences of such a collapse could be severe.
Irreversibilities
An irreversible change is one where that change, once set in motion, cannot be reversed, at least over some specified
timescale, e.g., centuries to millennia (Goldemberg et al., 1996, p.22).[52] Climate change is likely to lead to some
irreversible impacts (IPCC, 2007d).[53] One example of a potentially irreversible impact of climate change is damage
to ecosystems.

Footnotes
The IPCC report that is referred to in this article uses specific and quantitative language to describe uncertainty
(Ahmad et al., 2001).[54] This language is intended to provide an indication of the level of confidence that IPCC
authors have about a particular finding. The qualitative language used to describe uncertainty has a quantitative scale
associated with it. The quantitative values for qualitative terms are intended to ensure that confidence levels are
interpreted correctly. The is because qualitative statements, e.g., using the word "likely," can be interpreted
differently in quantitative terms (Moss and Schneider, 2000, p.44).[55]
Quantitative values for confidence statements made in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report are listed below (IPCC,
2007).[56] These quantitative values are subjective probabilities (see Ahmad et al., 2001, section 2.6.2) that reflect
the expert judgement of IPCC authors:
a
Very high confidence: At least 9 out of 10 chance of being correct
b
High confidence: About 8 out of 10 chance
c
Medium confidence: About 5 out of 10 chance
d
Low confidence: About 2 out of 10 chance
e
Very low confidence: Less than a 1 out of 10 chance

Notes
[1] Smith, B.; Schneider, H.; Oppenheimer, M.; Yohe, W.; Hare, W.; Mastrandrea, D.; Patwardhan, A.; Burton, I. et al. (Mar 2009). "Assessing
dangerous climate change through an update of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) "reasons for concern"". Proceedings
of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 106 (11): 41334137. doi:10.1073/pnas.0812355106. ISSN0027-8424.
PMC2648893. PMID19251662.
[2] In this article, the phrases "global warming" and "climate change" are used interchangeably.
[3] Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. "Summary for Policymakers" (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ publications_and_data/ ar4/ wg1/ en/ spm.
html). In Solomon 2007. .
[4] "IMPACTS: On the Threshold of Abrupt Climate Changes" (http:/ / newscenter. lbl. gov/ feature-stories/ 2008/ 09/ 17/
impacts-on-the-threshold-of-abrupt-climate-changes/ ). IMPACTS: On the Threshold of Abrupt Climate Changes. U.S. Department of
Energys Office of Biological and Environmental Research. September 2008. . Retrieved 2008-10-14.
[5] Connor, Steve (September 2008). "Hundreds of methane 'plumes' discovered" (http:/ / www. independent. co. uk/ news/ science/
hundreds-of-methane-plumes-discovered-941456. html). Hundreds of methane 'plumes' discovered (London: The Independent). . Retrieved
2008-10-14.
Effects of global warming 11

[6] "Executive Summary" (http:/ / books. nap. edu/ openbook. php?record_id=10136& page=1) (PHP). Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable
Surprises. United States National Academy of Sciences. June 2002. . Retrieved 2007-05-07.
[7] NOAA (26 Jan 2009). "New Study Shows Climate Change Largely Irreversible" (http:/ / www. noaanews. noaa. gov/ stories2009/
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Further reading
Houghton, P.J.; Ding, Y.; Griggs, D.J. et al., eds (2001). Climate change 2001: the scientific basis: contribution
of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (http://
www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1). Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. ISBN0-521-80767-0.
Parry, M.L., et al., ed (2007). Climate change 2007 : impacts, adaptation and vulnerability : contribution of
Working Group II to the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (http://
www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/contents.html). Cambridge University Press.
ISBN0521880106.
Solomon, S., et al., ed (2007). Climate change 2007 : the physical science basis : contribution of Working Group
I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (http://www.ipcc.ch/
publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/contents.html). Cambridge University Press. ISBN0521705967.
NRC (2008). "Understanding and Responding to Climate Change" (http://dels.nas.edu/dels/rpt_briefs/
climate_change_2008_final.pdf). Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (http://dels.nas.edu/basc), US
National Academy of Sciences. Retrieved 2009-05-20.
NRC (2008). "Ecological Impacts of Climate Change" (http://books.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=12491).
The National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001, USA. pp. 70. Retrieved
Effects of global warming 14

2010-03-13.

External links

Physical impacts
"Climate Change" (http://www.wmo.int/pages/themes/climate/main_climate_change.php). World
Meteorological Organization.
The IPCC Working Group I (WG I) website (http://www.ipcc-wg1.unibe.ch/). This body assesses the physical
scientific aspects of the climate system and climate change.

Social, economic and ecological impacts

Climate change (http://www.un.org/esa/dsd/dsd_aofw_cc/cc_index.shtml) on the United Nations Economic
and Social Development (UNESD) Division for Sustainable Development website.
The IPCC Working Group II (WG II) website (http://www.ipcc-wg2.gov/) This body assesses the
vulnerability of socio-economic and natural systems to climate change, negative and positive consequences of
climate change, and options for adapting to it.

General
List of United Nations Functional Commissions and Expert Bodies related to climate change (http://esa.un.org/
subindex/pgViewSites.asp?termCode=QB.25)
IRIN, the humanitarian news and analysis service of the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs:
"What climate change does" (http://www.irinnews.org/Report.aspx?ReportId=79563), "How climate change
works" (http://www.irinnews.org/Report.aspx?ReportId=79508), and "Gathering Storm - the humanitarian
impact of climate change" (http://www.irinnews.org/IndepthMain.aspx?IndepthId=73&ReportId=78246)
Videos:
"Educational Forum: Arctic Climate Impact" (http://video.google.com/
videoplay?docid=4119472365452589212). Panel discussion with James J. McCarthy, Professor at Harvard
University, and Author; Paul R. Epstein, M.D., instructor in medicine at Harvard Medical School; and Ross
Gelbspan, Pulitzer-prize winning journalist and author. Massachusetts School of Law.
"How we know humans are changing the climate and Why climate change is a clear and present danger" (http:/
/climateprogress.org/2010/02/05/
videos-humans-are-changing-the-climate-global-warming-threat-chris-field/#more-18551). Interviews with
Christopher Field and Michael MacCracken. Christopher Field is the director of the Department of Global
Ecology at the Carnegie Institution of Washington, professor of biology and environmental earth system
science at Stanford University, and the Working Group II Co-Chair for the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change. Michael MacCracken is the chief scientist for Climate Change Programs at the Climate
Institute and a co-author and contributing author for various chapters in the IPCC assessment reports. Climate
Progress website, February 5, 2010.
Article Sources and Contributors 15

Article Sources and Contributors

Effects of global warming Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=416753588 Contributors: 10014derek, 21tom92, A3RO, ABF, ANOMALY-117, Aaron Schulz, Adam McMaster,
Addshore, Adi, AdultSwim, Afasmit, Agnana, Ageyban, Ahoerstemeier, Air-con noble, Airborne84, Aitias, Aleenf1, Alex.g12345, Alex.rosenheim, Alexllew, Algkalv, Aliwalla, Altenmann,
Alvestrand, Anastrophe, Andrew curnow, Andrewjlockley, Andrewpmk, Anguis, Anirvan, AnneDELS, Antandrus, Anythingyouwant, Aridd, Arjun01, Arjuna909, Arthur Rubin,
AstroHurricane001, Atari2600tim, Atletiker, Atmoz, Atomicdor, Aude, Autopilot, Auximines, Awickert, AxelBoldt, BD2412, Baa, Badgernet, Balla567, Balla69, BallsmahoneyREOW,
Barticus88, Baunret, Belly of the Beast, BenB4, Bender235, Bendzh, Benjamin Weaver, BennyQuixote, Betacommand, Bev Bevins, Bewildebeast, Big Bird, Bigcoon, Bikeable, Bilby,
Bingomzan, BlastOButter42, Bleh999, BlueEarth, BlueGoose, Bob98133, Bobblewik, Bobo192, BocoROTH, Boehner, Bogden400, Bonesiii, Born1913, Boud, Brainiac2595, Brandonromero,
Brekass, Brian A Schmidt, Brianga, Bruceanthro, Brusegadi, Bsansvsage, BuickCenturyDriver, Burkinaboy, C-randles, CALR, Calvin 1998, CambridgeBayWeather, Can't sleep, clown will eat
me, CardinalDan, Casual dude, Cderoose, Chanakal, Chasrmartin, Chatfecter, Chemical Euphoria, Chet nc, Chickenfarmer73, Chill doubt, Chrisdab, Christmastree1225, Chunky Rice, Ciggy101,
Clayoquot, Click23, Colonies Chris, Complex (de), Cool Hand Luke, Cordless Larry, Count23, Cpl Syx, Crabula, Craigy144, Cremepuff222, Crystalangel09, Crystallina, Curps, CurtisSwain,
Cuspid Groove, D climacus, DRTllbrg, DSRH, DTM, Dalej78, DamoclesSword, Dan100, Daniel Collins, Dave6, Davidof, Dawn Bard, Dbiel, Dburdenbates, Dcsohl, Deagle AP, Dean1970,
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Image:Risks and Impacts of Global Warming.png Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Risks_and_Impacts_of_Global_Warming.png License: unknown Contributors:
User:Dragons flight
Image:Instrumental Temperature Record (NASA).svg Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Instrumental_Temperature_Record_(NASA).svg License: GNU Free
Documentation License Contributors: User:Autopilot
Image:Global Warming Map.jpg Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Global_Warming_Map.jpg License: unknown Contributors: Reynolds, R.W., N.A. Rayner, T.M.
Smith, D.C. Stokes, and W. Wang
Image:Cyclone Catarina 2004.jpg Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Cyclone_Catarina_2004.jpg License: Public Domain Contributors: Image courtesy Jeff Schmaltz,
MODIS Land Rapid Response Team at NASA GSFC.
Image:Glacier Mass Balance Map.png Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Glacier_Mass_Balance_Map.png License: unknown Contributors: Dragons flight, Gaf.arq,
Pflatau, 1 anonymous edits
Image:Holocene Sea Level.png Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Holocene_Sea_Level.png License: unknown Contributors: Awickert, Dragons flight, Glenn, Pflatau, 3
anonymous edits

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