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    2.23.18 ND Survey Memo

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    2.23.18 ND Survey Memo

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    2.23.18 ND Survey Memo

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    2.23.18 ND Survey Memo

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    4K views2 pages

    2.23.18 ND Survey Memo

    Uploaded by

    Rob Port
    2.23.18 ND Survey Memo

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    © All Rights Reserved
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    201 N Union Street, Suite 410

    Alexandria, Virginia 22314


    (703) 684-6688
    THE TARRANCE GROUP
    (703) 836-8256 FAX www.tarrance.com

    MEMORANDUM

    TO: NATIONAL REPUBLICAN SENATORIAL COMMITTEE

    FROM: DAVE SACKETT


    LAUREN HUTCHINSON

    RE: KEY FINDINGS FROM A STATEWIDE SURVEY OF VOTER ATTITUDES IN


    NORTH DAKOTA

    DATE: FEBRUARY 21, 2018


    ________________________________________________________________________

    The Tarrance Group is pleased to present the National Republican Senatorial Committee with the
    key findings from a survey of voter attitudes in North Dakota. These key findings are based on
    live telephone interviews with n=500 “likely” registered voters throughout the state on both
    landline and cellular telephone. Responses to this survey were gathered February 18-20, 2018.

    KEY FINDINGS

    ENVIRONMENT

    ➢ Key Democratic figures remain toxic in North Dakota. A plurality of respondents have an
    unfavorable view of Chuck Schumer, and nearly 60% of North Dakota voters have an
    unfavorable view of Nancy Pelosi.

    ➢ The generic ballot for United States Senate is a net +14 advantage for Republicans. Forty-
    eight percent (48%) of respondents indicate they would vote for a generic Republican, and
    only thirty-four percent (34%) indicate they would vote for a generic Democrat.

    The Tarrance Group – North Dakota Statewide (February 2018) Page 1


    CANDIDATES

    ➢ Fully fifty-three percent (53%) of respondents have a favorable impression of Congressman


    Cramer, while just 29% have an unfavorable impression, for a net +24 favorability rating.

    ➢ Importantly, in the last 5 months, Senator Heitkamp’s net favorable rating has decreased by
    10-points and now trails Congressman Cramer’s net rating:

    Oct ‘17 Feb ‘18 Movement


    Heitkamp – Favorable 60% 54% -6%
    Heitkamp - Unfavorable 34% 38% +4%
    Heitkamp – NET Favorability +26 +16 -10%

    SENATE BALLOT

    Feb ‘18
    Kevin Cramer 49%
    Heidi Heitkamp 44%
    Undecided 7%

    ➢ As you can see from the chart above, Congressman Cramer already has a 5-point lead over
    Heitkamp. Forty-nine percent (49%) indicate they would vote for Cramer, forty-four percent
    (44%) indicate they would vote for Heitkamp, and seven percent (7%) remain undecided.
    Cramer’s “definite” vote (36%) is +5 points higher than Heitkamp’s (31%).

    o Enthusiasm is on Cramer’s side: his ballot position reaches 50% among those who are
    extremely likely to vote in the November election, and has an 11-point lead over
    Heitkamp among those who are very likely to vote.

    ###

    The Tarrance Group – North Dakota Statewide (February 2018) Page 2

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