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Microsoft Excel Analysis: Can my PV System Pay a Loan with its Savings?
How can the energy output of a PV system be increased without purchasing more solar
modules?
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The purpose of this article is to describe a detailed procedure that can be carried out to calculate the
energy output obtained from a solar photovoltaic array, considering the following factors:
Photovoltaic array area
Geographic location
Operating temperature
There are many possible photovoltaic system configurations. This procedure is valid for a system with
the following characteristics:
For more complex configurations, such as an array located at a angle to the north-south axis or a
tracking PV system, the analysis includes much more variables and requires specialized software.
This step is straightforward, it is only important to note that only the specific array area must be taken
into account. If the array is split into sections due to positioning issues, the individual areas of each
section must be added up, instead of considering the total area which includes the spaces in between.
If the array will be fixed on an existing surface, such as a roof, the angle of the roof must be
measured.
If positioning is free, it is recommendable to determine the optimal tilt angle that will maximize
energy output.
The NASA ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE DATA CENTER is an excellent web resource to determine this
information. The following wiki page provides a detailed guide on how to use the resource:
NASA Atmospheric Science Data Center: Solar Power Potential According to Location
The same coordinates of the example found in the link will be considered:
Latitude: 15.5149204
Longitude: -87.9922684
The table displays average radiation on a monthly and yearly basis. Any can be used depending on the
required analysis.
If the production profile throughout the year is required, photovoltaic system output should be
calculated on a month-by-month basis and then added up.
If only the yearly production value is required, the annual average solar radiation in the last
column can be used.
This value varies by type of solar panel, so the value used should be the one provided by your PV module
provider. Module efficiency may range from below 10% to about 20% depending on the provider and
technology. Thin-film modules tend to provide the lowest output per square meter, poly-crystalline
silicon modules are intermediate, and mono-crystalline silicon modules offer the top efficiency. It is
important to note that efficiency is correlated with price.
For this example, an efficiency of 16% will be considered, which is typical of poly-crystalline modules.
The installed capacity of the project in direct-current kilowatts would be:
For AC capacity, this value must be multiplied by the inverter efficiency, which is typically above 95%.
Solar PV module specifications include a temperature coefficient, typically expressed as percentage per
Celsius degree. The reference temperature is 25°C, which is used as a standard for solar PV module
laboratory tests.
For example, if a 150-watt module has a temperature coefficient of -0.40% / °C, operation at 40°C would
result in an output reduction of:
Notice the negative sign of the coefficient - this means that for temperatures below 25°C the output is
actually increased above the rate value. Consider, for instance, 17°C (8°C difference).
To determine how conversion efficiency is affected, the same approach can be used. For instance, if this
solar panel has a conversion efficiency of 15% under standard conditions (25°C), it would be 13.65% at
40°C and 15.72% at 17°C.
ENERGY OUTPUT (kWh/month) = SOLAR ARRAY AREA (m2) x CONVERSION EFFICIENCY x SOLAR
RADIATION FOR THE MONTH (kWh/m2/day)
Area = 20 m2
Since the analysis is monthly, it is possible to set up a bar graph for a visual representation of output
throughout the year:
This system will allow a building with an average monthly energy consumption of 500 kWh or below to
become a net-zero energy building, since it is possible to meet 100% of energy needs with the PV array.
It is important to note that a net-zero energy building is not necessarily "off the grid" - it simply means
that energy exported to the electric utility grid is equivalent to energy drawn.
With the steps above, the technical analysis can be carried out. The following wiki pages provide some
guidance on financial analysis:
PAYBACK PERIOD
http://thegrid.rexel.com/topics/energy_efficiency/w/solar_renewable_and_energy_efficiency/69.estim
ating-payback-period-of-a-solar-pv-system-a-simplified-method
http://thegrid.rexel.com/topics/energy_efficiency/w/solar_renewable_and_energy_efficiency/73.micro
soft-excel-analysis-can-my-pv-system-pay-a-loan-with-its-savings
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