CEP Lesson Plan Form

Teacher: Mr. Smith Date: 2/28/18

School: Rocky Mountain High School Grade Level: 10 - 12 Content Area: Mathematics

Title: Probability vs. Intuition Lesson #: 1 of 3

Lesson Idea/Topic and This lesson falls in the middle of a unit covering probability. It will serve to
Rational/Relevance: introduce the rules for probability, as well as sparking inquiry about the
legitimacy of our intuition regarding probability versus technical probability
rules.

Student Profile: The students in this class present a unique collection of individual learners,
some possess the mathematical skills to be successful, but they struggle to
put forth the necessary effort to do so; others display proper motivation and
engagement, however, their poor mathematical proficiency causes them to
struggle.

Content Standard(s) addressed by this lesson: (Write Content Standards directly from the standard)

CDE Mathematics Standard 3.3 – “Probability models outcomes for situations in which there is inherent randomness”

Understandings: (Big Ideas)

Often times, our intuition regrading probability is misleading.

Inquiry Questions: (Essential questions relating knowledge at end of the unit of instruction, select applicable questions from standard)

Is our intuition always reliable?

If something “feels” like the right choice, are the odds in our favor?

Colorado State University College of Health and Human Sciences Page 1

CEP Lesson Plan Form

Evidence Outcomes: (Learning Targets)

Every student will be able to: (Create your own lesson objectives from the standard, follow the ABCD format, using student voice)

Students will be able to create and interpret a probability model to describe chance behavior.

This means: Students understand how to calculate probabilities from a sample space.

List of Assessments:

Excel sheet with attached questions for students to answer pertaining to content.

Group discussion following conclusion of activity.

Pre-assessment to conclude class.

Colorado State University College of Health and Human Sciences Page 2

CEP Lesson Plan Form

Planned Lesson Activities

Name and Purpose of Lesson Probability vs. Intuition

Purpose: This lesson will spark interest in probability and begin to introduce probability
rules.
Co-Teaching Which model(s) will be used?
Will co-teaching models be utilized in this lesson? Supplemental teaching
Yes Why did you choose this model(s) and what are the teachers’ roles?
This model will allow both teachers to have a leading role during the activity. During
group practice, both teachers will monitor the class and support smaller groups.

Approx. Time and Materials 70 minutes

Smart Board, decks of cards
Anticipatory Set The strategy I intend to use is: Introductive video related to activity, Initial inquiry
I am using this strategy here because: The students respond well when presented with a
debatable question initially. The video will provide context for the activity, as well spark
interest.

Procedures The strategy I intend to use is: Modeling, questioning strategies, guided practice
I am using this strategy here because: I will use each of these strategies at different points
during the activity when they are appropriate.

Teacher Actions Student Actions Data Collected

Colorado State University College of Health and Human Sciences Page 3

CEP Lesson Plan Form

Check in question – Initial

question unrelated to
lesson that welcomes
students to class. (5 min)

Introductory video – During Share thoughts and discuss

relevant moment in video, question posed by teacher.
ask question of students,
“Should the contestant stay
or switch?” (5 min)

Simulate game show “Let’s Students can volunteer to

Make a Deal” with different play the game simulation
students. After each round, one round at a time.
track whether the student
stayed or switched their
first door choice, and
whether or not they won.
Play 12 rounds. (10 min)

After playing 12 rounds, ask Discuss in groups briefly

“Is it to your advantage to then share to the class.
stay or switch?” (5 min)
Students will pair up and
Show students excel sheet begin activity where they
with attached activity simulate the game show
questions. After providing using cards. Students will
students with materials, fill out the table and answer
teachers will monitor the the questions following the
class and support students simulation. In doing so,
while they complete the they will construct a
activity. (25 min) probability model.

After students complete Discuss in groups briefly Excel sheets and activity
activity, ask again “it is to and then share out to the questions will be turned in
Colorado State University College of Health and Human Sciences Page 4
CEP Lesson Plan Form

Closure The strategy I intend to use is: Teacher input

I am using this strategy here because: This activity is likely to draw discussion and
conflicting ideas from students. To ensure that students arrive at the correct conclusion,
we will watch an animated video which briefly explains the resolution to the initial
question, “is it to your advantage to stay or switch?”

After concluding the activity, students will work on a short pre-assessment covering
probability.

Differentiation Content Process Product Environment

Modifications: Struggling These students Students will These students
students will be will pair with work through will work in
paired together one another the same pairs at their
during the naturally and activity as the own tables in
guided practice move through rest of the the classroom.
portion of the the activity at class, but they
activity. the same pace. may not finish.
Extensions: Advanced As students Students will These students
students will be begin to pull answer the will work in
posed with this ahead from the question on the their pairs at
question: rest of the same their own
Consider this group, the document as tables in the
statement: teacher will the rest of the classroom.
"The first card present this activity
has a 1/3 question. questions.
chance of
winning, but
the second card
has a 2/3
chance."
Explain how
this statement
could be true.

Assessment Students will turn in their excel sheets and activity questions as both a summative

Colorado State University College of Health and Human Sciences Page 5

CEP Lesson Plan Form

assessment for the lesson as well as a formative assessment for the following lessons.
Group discussions throughout the activity will serve as formative assessments.

Pre-assessment given at the end of class will serve as a formative assessment for the rest
of the unit.

Colorado State University College of Health and Human Sciences Page 6

CEP Lesson Plan Form

Colorado State University College of Health and Human Sciences Page 7