02 BIWS Projections Quick Reference
02 BIWS Projections Quick Reference
02 BIWS Projections Quick Reference
Quick Reference – Projecting the 3 Financial Statements
http://breakingintowallstreet.com
+ Revenue Simple: % Growth Rate each year
Complex: Create a bottoms‐up build (You sell x iPods,
iPads, and iPhones at $xx each) or tops‐down build (You
capture xx% of a $xx market)
– Cost of Goods Sold
Simple: % of Revenue
= Gross Profit
Complex: Calculate the manufacturing / shipping costs for
each unit sold and tie it to your bottoms‐up revenue build
– Operating Expenses Simple: % of Revenue
Complex: Project the number of employees and average
salary / benefits / bonus each year
– Depreciation Simple: % of Revenue or % of CapEx
Complex: PP&E Schedule – Separate PP&E into individual
assets and depreciate each one over 5, 10, 20 etc. years
– Stock‐Based Compensation
% of Revenue or hold constant each year
– Amortization of Intangibles
Simple: Hold constant each year
= Operating Income Complex: Separate Intangibles into individual assets and
amortize each one over 5, 10, 20 etc. years
+ Interest Income
– Interest Expense % of Average Cash Balance or % of Average Debt Balance
– Asset Write‐Downs
+ Debt Write‐Downs Assume $0 unless company indicates otherwise
= Pre‐Tax Income
– Income Tax Expense
Assume standard rate (usually 35% or 40%)
= Net Income
÷ Shares Outstanding Assume constant unless company indicates otherwise
= Earnings Per Share
Accounting Fundamentals
Quick Reference – Projecting the 3 Financial Statements
http://breakingintowallstreet.com
Current Assets:
+ Cash & Cash‐Equivalents Flows in from CFS
+ Short‐Term Investments Flows in from CFS; usually constant
+ Prepaid Expenses % Operating Expenses or % COGS
+ Accounts Receivable (AR) % Revenue or (AR / Revenue) * Days in Period
+ Inventory % COGS or COGS / Average Inventory
Long‐Term Assets:
+ Long‐Term Investments Flows in from CFS; usually constant
+ Goodwill Assume constant unless there’s goodwill impairment
+ Other Intangible Assets Subtract amortization; add in purchases
+ Plants, Property & Equipment (PP&E) Add CapEx, subtract Depreciation, Asset Sales,
= Total Assets and Write‐Downs
Current Liabilities:
+ Short‐Term Debt Flows in from CFS and/or Debt Schedules
+ Accounts Payable (AP) % COGS or (AP / COGS) * Days in Period
+ Accrued Expenses % Operating Expenses or % COGS
Long‐Term Liabilities:
+ Deferred Revenue (DR) % Revenue
+ Long‐Term Debt Flows in from CFS and Debt Schedules
+ Deferred Tax Liabilities Hold constant or use Book / Cash Tax Schedule
= Total Liabilities
Shareholders’ Equity (SE):
+ Common Stock Hold constant
+ Additional Paid‐In Capital Add shares issued; usually constant
+ Treasury Stock Subtract repurchased shares; usually constant
+ Accumulated Other Comprehensive Income Assume constant unless company indicates otherwise
+ Retained Earnings Add Net Income, subtract Dividends
= Total Liabilities + SE
Assets = Liabilities + SE
Accounting Fundamentals
Quick Reference – Projecting the 3 Financial Statements
http://breakingintowallstreet.com
Cash Flow from Operations:
+ Net Income Flows in from Income Statement
+ Depreciation Flows in from Income Statement
+ Stock‐Based Compensation Flows in from Income Statement
+ Amortization of Intangibles Flows in from Income Statement
+ Asset Write‐Downs Flows in from Income Statement
– Liability Write‐Downs Flows in from Income Statement
+ Deferred Income Taxes Hold constant or use Book / Cash Tax Schedule
Changes in Operating Assets / Liabilities:
– Increase (Decrease) in Prepaid Expenses Flows in from Balance Sheet
– Increase (Decrease) in Accounts Receivable Flows in from Balance Sheet
– Increase (Decrease) in Inventory Flows in from Balance Sheet
+ Increase (Decrease) in Accounts Payable Flows in from Balance Sheet
+ Increase (Decrease) in Accrued Expenses Flows in from Balance Sheet
+ Increase (Decrease) in Deferred Revenue Flows in from Balance Sheet
= Cash Flow from Operations (CFO)
Cash Flow from Investing:
– Capital Expenditures Simple: % Revenue
– Buy (Sell) Short‐Term Investments Complex: PP&E Schedule; Link to historical spending
– Buy (Sell) Long‐Term Investments Hold constant or set to $0
= Cash Flow from Investing (CFI) Hold constant or set to $0
Cash Flow from Financing:
– Dividends Issued Hold constant or set to $0
+ Short‐Term Debt Raised (Paid Off) Flows in from Debt Schedules
+ Long‐Term Debt Raised (Paid Off) Flows in from Debt Schedules
+ Issue (Purchase) Shares Hold constant or set to $0
= Cash Flow from Financing (CFF)
Net Change in Cash = CFO + CFI + CFF
Ending Cash = Beginning Cash + Net Change in
Cash