2018 - KGW TV - Oregon Voter Poll
2018 - KGW TV - Oregon Voter Poll
2018 - KGW TV - Oregon Voter Poll
CROSS TABULATIONS
OCTOBER 8, 2018
www.rileyresearch.com
10200 SW Eastridge St, Suite 220, Portland, OR 97225
phone [503] 222-4179 fax [503] 222-4313
S1. Regarding the general election coming up this November, would you say you are (select one):
Certain to vote 95% 67% 84% 93% 95% 99% 98% 92% 100% 95% 100% 100% 100% 92% 96% 95% 94%
Very likely to vote 5 33 16 7 5 1 3 8 - 5 - - - 8 4 5 6
Chi Square 30.02 5.20 11.82 0.22
.001 .023 .037 .895
Certain to vote 95% 100% 93% 85% 50% - 100% - 97% 92% 99% 89% 100% 97%
Very likely to vote 5 - 7 15 50 100 - - 3 8 1 11 - 3
Chi Square 46.59 14.89
.001 .005
1 17% 22% 12% 28% 17% 13% 14% 20% 11% 5% 3% 29% 12% 22% 23% 7% 20%
2 21 - 8 21 24 22 24 18 67 60 54 14 13 12 16 35 9
3 23 67 48 30 18 17 22 24 - 10 5 - 10 35 20 7 57
4 18 - 8 5 21 23 18 18 11 15 26 36 29 12 17 27 6
5 22 11 24 16 20 25 23 20 11 10 13 21 36 19 25 25 9
Chi Square 43.61 3.82 120.00 99.58
.001 .431 .001 .001
Democrat 44% 44% 36% 42% 49% 43% 36% 54% 11% 25% 38% 50% 52% 45% 48% 38% 44%
Republican 34% 22% 32% 21% 31% 41% 42% 24% 33% 60% 49% 43% 32% 28% 39% 37% 19%
Others / NAV 22% 33% 32% 37% 20% 16% 23% 21% 56% 15% 13% 7% 16% 26% 13% 25% 37%
Independent 10% 22% 12% 18% 6% 8% 8% 12% 44% 10% 3% - 8% 11% 7% 8% 17%
Libertarian 1% - 4% - 1% - 1% 1% - - 3% - - 1% - 2% -
Pacific Green 0% - - - 1% - - 1% - - - - - 1% - 1% -
Constitution 1% - - - 1% 1% 1% 1% - - - - 3% - 1% - 1%
Other / Non- 11% 11% 16% 19% 11% 7% 14% 7% 11% 5% 8% 7% 5% 15% 5% 15% 19%
affiliated
Chi Square 30.86 21.58 46.96 31.14
.158 .001 .025 .002
Others / NAV 22% - - 100% 100% 100% 100% - 100% 17% 20% 31% 19% 21%
Male 56% 56% 56% 58% 51% 59% 100% - 67% 55% 59% 71% 66% 50% 53% 60% 57%
Female 44 44 44 42 49 41 - 100 33 45 41 29 34 50 47 40 43
Chi Square 1.62 356.00 7.83 1.59
.806 .001 .166 .451
Male 56% 46% 69% 44% 50% - 50% - 72% 47% 63% 53% 56% 60%
Female 44 54 31 56 50 100 50 - 28 53 37 47 44 40
Chi Square 21.58 3.82
.001 .431
Two of 4 46% 44% 32% 33% 45% 53% 43% 49% 22% 40% 54% 86% 49% 42% 100% - -
Three of 4 35 33 32 33 40 32 37 31 56 35 36 14 30 37 - 100 -
All four 20 22 36 33 15 15 20 19 22 25 10 - 21 22 - - 100
Mean 2.7 2.8 3.0 3.0 2.7 2.6 2.8 2.7 3.0 2.9 2.6 2.1 2.7 2.8 2.0 3.0 4.0
Chi Square 17.59 1.59 16.52 712.00
.024 .451 .086 .001
Two of 4 46% 50% 52% 35% - - 50% - 21% 63% 35% 41% 42% 52%
Three of 4 35 30 37 29 100 100 - - 46 14 57 10 52 40
All four 20 20 11 35 - - 50 - 33 24 8 49 6 8
Mean 2.7 2.7 2.6 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 - 3.1 2.6 2.7 3.1 2.6 2.6
Chi Square 31.14 99.58
.002 .001
18-34 3% 100% - - - - 3% 3% - - 3% - 1% 4% 2% 2% 3%
35-44 7 - 100 - - - 7 7 - 10 3 - 8 8 5 7 13
45-54 16 - - 100 - - 17 15 11 5 10 7 10 21 12 15 27
55-64 28 - - - 100 - 26 31 56 25 31 21 23 29 28 33 21
65+ 46 - - - - 100 49 44 33 60 54 71 57 38 53 43 36
Chi Square 1000+ 1.62 25.69 17.59
.001 .806 .176 .024
Mean 62 28 40 50 60 73 63 61 62 66 64 70 64 60 64 62 59
18-34 3% 3% 2% 6% - - - - 3% 3% - 7% - 1%
35-44 7 6 7 9 50 - - - 10 5 3 15 3 8
45-54 16 15 10 29 - - - - 28 27 16 21 5 12
55-64 28 31 26 18 50 100 50 - 28 29 32 22 33 26
65+ 46 45 56 38 - - 50 - 31 36 49 35 59 53
Chi Square 30.86 43.61
.158 .001
Mean 62 62 65 57 51 56 65 - 58 60 65 57 66 63
Favorable 40% 33% 44% 42% 32% 45% 50% 28% 67% 55% 51% 50% 42% 35% 38% 47% 34%
Very favorable 29% 11% 32% 21% 25% 34% 34% 22% 44% 45% 36% 43% 30% 23% 28% 34% 20%
Somewhat 12% 22% 12% 21% 7% 11% 17% 6% 22% 10% 15% 7% 12% 11% 10% 13% 14%
favorable
Unfavorable 60% 67% 56% 58% 68% 55% 50% 72% 33% 45% 49% 50% 58% 65% 62% 53% 66%
Mean 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.9 3.1 2.7 2.6 3.1 2.1 2.3 2.6 2.6 2.9 3.0 2.9 2.7 3.1
Chi Square 25.26 19.97 23.19 6.10
.014 .001 .080 .412
Favorable 40% 5% 89% 47% 50% - 50% - 26% 31% 48% 26% 55% 44%
Very favorable 29% 1% 72% 21% - - 50% - 13% 19% 36% 15% 42% 32%
Somewhat favorable 12% 4% 17% 26% 50% - - - 13% 12% 12% 11% 13% 12%
Unfavorable 60% 95% 11% 53% 50% 100% 50% - 74% 69% 52% 74% 45% 56%
Mean 2.8 3.9 1.4 2.6 3.0 3.0 2.5 - 3.2 3.1 2.6 3.2 2.5 2.8
Chi Square 285.90 23.61
.001 .023
Right track 50% 33% 44% 46% 56% 49% 44% 58% 44% 30% 49% 50% 51% 52% 53% 45% 50%
Very much on the 10% 11% 8% 7% 11% 10% 11% 8% 11% 5% 5% 21% 13% 9% 12% 7% 9%
right track
Somewhat on the 40% 22% 36% 39% 45% 39% 33% 50% 33% 25% 44% 29% 38% 43% 42% 37% 41%
right track
Wrong track 50% 67% 56% 54% 44% 51% 57% 42% 56% 70% 51% 50% 49% 48% 47% 55% 50%
Somewhat on the 22% 67% 36% 23% 18% 21% 22% 23% 11% 25% 10% 21% 21% 26% 21% 24% 23%
wrong track
Very much on the 28% - 20% 32% 26% 30% 35% 19% 44% 45% 41% 29% 29% 22% 26% 31% 27%
wrong track
Mean 2.7 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.5 2.9 3.1 2.9 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.8 2.7
Chi Square 17.00 15.08 18.74 2.90
.150 .002 .226 .821
Right track 50% 78% 19% 35% 50% 100% - - 44% 58% 44% 54% 45% 48%
Somewhat on the 22% 14% 29% 24% 50% - 50% - 33% 31% 24% 26% 13% 19%
wrong track
Very much on the 28% 8% 52% 41% - - 50% - 23% 12% 32% 20% 42% 32%
wrong track
Mean 2.7 2.2 3.2 3.1 2.5 2.0 3.5 - 2.8 2.4 2.8 2.6 2.9 2.8
Chi Square 124.48 22.45
.001 .033
Kate Brown (D) 49% 22% 48% 47% 57% 46% 42% 58% 33% 30% 44% 43% 49% 53% 53% 42% 50%
Certain to vote 34% 22% 24% 35% 40% 32% 28% 42% 22% 20% 23% 29% 38% 37% 37% 28% 37%
for Kate Brown
(D)
Likely to vote for 15% - 24% 12% 17% 14% 14% 16% 11% 10% 21% 14% 12% 16% 17% 14% 13%
Kate Brown (D)
Knute Buehler 45% 33% 44% 46% 36% 52% 54% 34% 44% 70% 54% 50% 43% 42% 43% 50% 41%
(R)
Certain to vote 28% 11% 32% 21% 24% 34% 33% 23% 33% 50% 31% 43% 27% 25% 29% 36% 14%
for Knute Buehler
(R)
Likely to vote for 17% 22% 12% 25% 12% 18% 22% 11% 11% 20% 23% 7% 16% 17% 14% 15% 27%
Knute Buehler
(R)
Other candidate 6% 44% 8% 7% 7% 2% 5% 8% 22% - 3% 7% 8% 6% 4% 7% 9%
Kate Brown (D) 49% 87% 7% 24% 50% 100% - - 46% 54% 44% 57% 38% 51%
Certain to vote for 34% 69% 2% 6% - 100% - - 21% 42% 32% 40% 23% 32%
Kate Brown (D)
Likely to vote for 15% 18% 6% 18% 50% - - - 26% 12% 12% 17% 14% 18%
Kate Brown (D)
Knute Buehler (R) 45% 8% 91% 56% - - 50% - 46% 42% 51% 33% 58% 44%
Certain to vote for 28% 4% 62% 29% - - 50% - 23% 24% 31% 15% 44% 31%
Knute Buehler (R)
Likely to vote for 17% 4% 29% 26% - - - - 23% 19% 20% 19% 14% 13%
Knute Buehler (R)
Other candidate 6% 4% 2% 21% 50% - 50% - 8% 3% 5% 10% 5% 5%
Yes 46% 67% 52% 46% 47% 42% 49% 41% 22% 70% 36% 29% 58% 42% 47% 46% 41%
Certain to vote 12% 22% 16% 18% 10% 10% 13% 12% - 10% 5% - 16% 14% 15% 10% 10%
yes
Likely to vote yes 33% 44% 36% 28% 37% 32% 37% 29% 22% 60% 31% 29% 43% 28% 32% 37% 31%
Undecided 23% 22% 20% 25% 16% 27% 16% 33% 33% 5% 31% 7% 25% 23% 24% 21% 24%
No 31% 11% 28% 30% 37% 30% 36% 26% 44% 25% 33% 64% 17% 35% 29% 33% 34%
Certain to vote no 11% 11% 4% 7% 14% 12% 14% 8% 11% - 10% 43% 6% 12% 12% 12% 7%
Likely to vote no 21% - 24% 23% 23% 19% 22% 19% 33% 25% 23% 21% 10% 23% 18% 20% 27%
Chi Square 13.70 15.80 41.90 5.87
.621 .003 .003 .662
Yes 46% 61% 25% 38% 50% 100% - - 54% 46% 45% 46% 36% 53%
Certain to vote yes 12% 17% 4% 9% 50% 100% - - 15% 17% 7% 19% 8% 10%
Likely to vote yes 33% 44% 21% 29% - - - - 38% 29% 39% 27% 28% 43%
Undecided 23% 23% 27% 12% 50% - 50% - 18% 20% 24% 22% 23% 25%
No 31% 16% 48% 50% - - 50% - 28% 34% 31% 32% 41% 22%
Yes 40% 56% 36% 42% 38% 41% 48% 31% 44% 60% 51% 57% 39% 36% 40% 41% 39%
Certain to vote 25% 33% 20% 30% 23% 25% 30% 19% 44% 45% 31% 36% 21% 22% 22% 28% 27%
yes
Likely to vote yes 15% 22% 16% 12% 15% 16% 18% 12% - 15% 21% 21% 18% 13% 18% 13% 11%
Undecided 21% 33% 32% 21% 16% 22% 13% 31% 22% 5% 18% 14% 29% 21% 21% 17% 29%
No 38% 11% 32% 37% 46% 37% 40% 37% 33% 35% 31% 29% 32% 44% 39% 41% 33%
Certain to vote no 19% - 16% 18% 27% 17% 18% 21% 22% 15% 15% 14% 13% 23% 19% 21% 17%
Likely to vote no 19% 11% 16% 19% 19% 20% 22% 16% 11% 20% 15% 14% 19% 20% 20% 20% 16%
Chi Square 11.14 21.58 20.06 7.13
.801 .001 .454 .523
Yes 40% 28% 60% 38% - - - - 38% 44% 40% 28% 50% 43%
Certain to vote yes 25% 15% 39% 29% - - - - 26% 20% 31% 21% 27% 27%
Likely to vote yes 15% 13% 21% 9% - - - - 13% 24% 9% 7% 23% 16%
Undecided 21% 23% 19% 21% 50% - 50% - 18% 22% 19% 26% 22% 17%
No 38% 49% 21% 41% 50% 100% 50% - 44% 34% 41% 46% 28% 40%
Certain to vote no 19% 24% 12% 18% 50% 100% 50% - 21% 15% 25% 22% 17% 16%
Likely to vote no 19% 25% 10% 24% - - - - 23% 19% 16% 23% 11% 25%
Chi Square 45.08 22.26
.006 .135
Yes 36% 33% 40% 28% 32% 41% 43% 27% 11% 45% 41% 43% 38% 34% 34% 40% 33%
Certain to vote 17% 11% 24% 12% 15% 19% 23% 10% 11% 35% 23% 14% 17% 15% 16% 22% 11%
yes
Likely to vote yes 19% 22% 16% 16% 17% 21% 21% 17% - 10% 18% 29% 21% 19% 18% 18% 21%
Undecided 28% 56% 32% 35% 27% 23% 18% 40% 22% 25% 28% 14% 30% 28% 27% 24% 34%
No 37% 11% 28% 37% 41% 36% 40% 33% 67% 30% 31% 43% 32% 38% 39% 36% 33%
Certain to vote no 19% 11% 20% 18% 21% 18% 21% 16% 33% 5% 18% 29% 14% 20% 19% 21% 13%
Likely to vote no 18% - 8% 19% 20% 19% 19% 17% 33% 25% 13% 14% 18% 18% 20% 15% 20%
Chi Square 12.77 26.24 17.39 7.93
.689 .001 .627 .440
Yes 36% 23% 56% 32% - - - - 33% 39% 39% 27% 41% 36%
Certain to vote yes 17% 6% 33% 18% - - - - 13% 12% 21% 10% 22% 21%
Likely to vote yes 19% 17% 23% 15% - - - - 21% 27% 17% 17% 19% 16%
Undecided 28% 28% 23% 44% 50% - 50% - 23% 31% 28% 31% 28% 21%
No 37% 49% 21% 24% 50% 100% 50% - 44% 31% 33% 42% 31% 43%
Certain to vote no 19% 25% 9% 12% - 100% 50% - 26% 12% 17% 27% 19% 16%
Likely to vote no 18% 24% 12% 12% 50% - - - 18% 19% 16% 15% 13% 27%
Chi Square 62.96 20.72
.001 .189
Yes 40% 33% 44% 37% 33% 45% 46% 32% 56% 65% 44% 43% 42% 35% 39% 43% 37%
Certain to vote 29% 11% 28% 26% 26% 33% 35% 22% 44% 55% 31% 43% 32% 23% 28% 35% 23%
yes
Likely to vote yes 11% 22% 16% 11% 7% 12% 11% 10% 11% 10% 13% - 9% 12% 11% 8% 14%
Undecided 9% 22% 8% 14% 6% 9% 8% 12% - 15% 13% - 5% 11% 9% 8% 11%
No 51% 44% 48% 49% 61% 46% 47% 56% 44% 20% 44% 57% 53% 54% 52% 49% 51%
Certain to vote no 38% 22% 32% 39% 48% 33% 37% 39% 22% 10% 31% 50% 42% 40% 38% 37% 37%
Likely to vote no 13% 22% 16% 11% 13% 13% 10% 17% 22% 10% 13% 7% 12% 14% 14% 11% 14%
Chi Square 15.61 10.52 23.69 5.14
.480 .033 .256 .743
Yes 40% 14% 76% 47% - 100% 50% - 26% 39% 40% 28% 50% 44%
Certain to vote yes 29% 8% 60% 32% - - - - 21% 24% 36% 14% 41% 34%
Likely to vote yes 11% 6% 17% 15% - 100% 50% - 5% 15% 4% 15% 9% 10%
Undecided 9% 6% 11% 15% - - 50% - 13% 3% 17% 14% 5% 5%
No 51% 80% 13% 38% 100% - - - 62% 58% 43% 58% 45% 51%
Certain to vote no 38% 60% 10% 24% 50% - - - 49% 39% 32% 40% 41% 38%
Likely to vote no 13% 20% 3% 15% 50% - - - 13% 19% 11% 19% 5% 13%
Chi Square 158.94 37.41
.001 .002
Yes 34% 22% 40% 30% 29% 39% 41% 26% 67% 55% 41% 57% 30% 29% 36% 35% 29%
Certain to vote 25% 22% 24% 21% 22% 29% 32% 17% 44% 50% 33% 36% 19% 22% 23% 29% 23%
yes
Likely to vote yes 9% - 16% 9% 7% 10% 9% 9% 22% 5% 8% 21% 10% 8% 13% 6% 6%
Undecided 10% 44% 12% 9% 9% 8% 9% 11% - - 10% - 8% 12% 11% 8% 9%
No 56% 33% 48% 61% 62% 53% 51% 63% 33% 45% 49% 43% 62% 58% 53% 57% 63%
Certain to vote no 44% 22% 32% 47% 47% 44% 40% 49% 22% 15% 38% 43% 47% 48% 42% 44% 47%
Likely to vote no 12% 11% 16% 14% 15% 10% 11% 15% 11% 30% 10% - 16% 11% 10% 13% 16%
Chi Square 20.79 11.47 34.54 8.40
.187 .022 .023 .395
Yes 34% 8% 71% 35% 50% - - - 26% 29% 37% 23% 47% 36%
Certain to vote yes 25% 4% 55% 26% - - - - 23% 17% 31% 19% 34% 26%
Likely to vote yes 9% 4% 17% 9% 50% - - - 3% 12% 7% 5% 13% 10%
Undecided 10% 7% 9% 18% - - 50% - 13% 10% 12% 12% 6% 6%
No 56% 85% 20% 47% 50% 100% 50% - 62% 61% 51% 64% 47% 57%
Certain to vote no 44% 71% 12% 26% 50% - 50% - 49% 46% 35% 49% 42% 47%
Likely to vote no 12% 13% 8% 21% - 100% - - 13% 15% 16% 15% 5% 10%
Chi Square 164.78 19.35
.001 .251
Eastern 3% - - 2% 5% 2% 3% 2% 100% - - - - - 1% 4% 3%
Cen/East 6 - 8 2 5 7 6 6 - 100 - - - - 5 6 7
Southern 11 11 4 7 12 13 12 10 - - 100 - - - 13 11 6
Coastal 4 - - 2 3 6 5 3 - - - 100 - - 7 2 -
Willamette Valley 22 11 24 14 18 27 26 17 - - - - 100 - 23 19 23
Portland Metro 55 78 64 74 57 45 50 63 - - - - - 100 50 59 61
Chi Square 25.69 7.83 1000+ 16.52
.176 .166 .001 .086
Eastern 3% 1% 2% 12% - - - - 3% 2% 8% - 2% 1%
Cen/East 6 3 10 6 - - - - 3 2 16 2 5 3
Southern 11 10 16 3 50 - - - 8 2 28 2 16 6
Coastal 4 4 5 - - - - - 3 7 3 - 8 4
Willamette Valley 22 25 21 18 - - 100 - 10 15 13 10 34 36