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    Technological Forecasting

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    Fel Fresco
    This document provides an introduction to technology forecasting. It defines technology forecasting as predicting the direction, characteristics, rate, implications, and impact of technological advances. The key reasons for technology forecasting are that it improves decision making, allows scanning of the technological environment, and helps anticipate, identify, and plan for emerging technologies and future needs. It presents a model of technology forecasting as an input-process-output system and lists the common elements and objectives of technology forecasting, such as identifying new business opportunities or threats and evaluating research and development investments.

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    Technological Forecasting

    Uploaded by

    Fel Fresco
    560 views12 pages
    This document provides an introduction to technology forecasting. It defines technology forecasting as predicting the direction, characteristics, rate, implications, and impact of technological advances. The key reasons for technology forecasting are that it improves decision making, allows scanning of the technological environment, and helps anticipate, identify, and plan for emerging technologies and future needs. It presents a model of technology forecasting as an input-process-output system and lists the common elements and objectives of technology forecasting, such as identifying new business opportunities or threats and evaluating research and development investments.

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    Technological Forecasting

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    This document provides an introduction to technology forecasting. It defines technology forecasting as predicting the direction, characteristics, rate, implications, and impact of technological advances. The key reasons for technology forecasting are that it improves decision making, allows scanning of the technological environment, and helps anticipate, identify, and plan for emerging technologies and future needs. It presents a model of technology forecasting as an input-process-output system and lists the common elements and objectives of technology forecasting, such as identifying new business opportunities or threats and evaluating research and development investments.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    560 views12 pages

    Technological Forecasting

    Uploaded by

    Fel Fresco
    This document provides an introduction to technology forecasting. It defines technology forecasting as predicting the direction, characteristics, rate, implications, and impact of technological advances. The key reasons for technology forecasting are that it improves decision making, allows scanning of the technological environment, and helps anticipate, identify, and plan for emerging technologies and future needs. It presents a model of technology forecasting as an input-process-output system and lists the common elements and objectives of technology forecasting, such as identifying new business opportunities or threats and evaluating research and development investments.

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    Technological Forecasting

    Introduction to Technology Forecasting

    Technology Forecasting TF Intro - 1


    Contents
     Definitions of Technology Forecasting
     Why Technology Forecasting ?
     Model of Technology Forecasting
     Elements of Technology Forecasting
     Objectives of Technology Forecasting

    Technology Forecasting TF Intro - 2


    Technology Forecasting
     Three definitions of technology forecasting
    from leading experts

     Technology forecasting is
     A group of techniques that predict the
    direction, character, rate, implication, and
    impact of technological advances
    -Vanston

    Technology Forecasting TF Intro - 3


    Technology Forecasting TF Intro - 4
    Technology Forecasting

     A prediction of the future characteristics of


    useful machines, procedures, or techniques
    -Martino

     Anticipation of the character, intensity, and


    timing of changes in technology
    -Porter

    Technology Forecasting TF Intro - 5


    Why Technological Forecasting?
     It is Indispensable
     It improves Quality of Decision making
     Scanning the technological environment
     Anticipating emerging technological changes
     Identifying suitable technologies by
    evaluating various alternatives
     Planning for future technology needs

    Technology Forecasting TF Intro - 6


    Technological Forecasting Model
    Viewed as a Input – Process – Output System

    INPUTS
    Forecasting PROCESS
    Problems Forecasting OUTPUT
    and process and Forecast
    Objectives, Techniques
    Data Inputs

    REVIEW
    Elements of Technological Forecasting

    1. Forecasting problems & objectives


    2. Data inputs for forecasting
    3. Forecaster
    4. Forecasting process
    5. Forecasting techniques
    6. Forecast (output)
    7. Review Mechanism

    Technology Forecasting TF Intro - 8


    Objectives for Technology
    Forecasting
     The first step in a technology
    forecasting project is to determine the
    purpose the forecast is to serve.
     Vanston suggests five purposes
     Projections of the rates at which new
    technologies will replace older ones
     Important to companies dependent on the old
    as well as the new technology

    Technology Forecasting TF Intro - 9


    Objectives for Technology
    Forecasting
     Assistance in the Management of Technical
    Research and Development
     Forecasting the technology emergence process can
    facilitate allocation of R&D resources
     Evaluation of the Present Value of Technology
    Under Development
     Forecasting the commercial value of a technology
    in the development process

    Technology Forecasting TF Intro - 10


    Objectives for Technology
    Forecasting
     Identification and Evaluation of New Products
    or Processes that May Present the
    Organization with New Opportunities or
    Threats
     Forecasting new business opportunities or threats
    to present markets

    Technology Forecasting TF Intro - 11


    Objectives for Technology
    Forecasting
     Analysis of New Technical Developments that
    Might Change Organizational Strategies or
    Operations
     Forecasting technology changes that might change
    the internal operations of the organization itself.

    Technology Forecasting TF Intro - 12

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