Coastal Brief

Strong Coastal Storm Tonight into
Saturday Night
Decision Support Briefing
#3
As of: 515 PM Oct 26, 2018
What Has Changed?

Flood Watch Issued for most
of the region for late Tonight
through Saturday afternoon.
Wind headlines extended

through Saturday afternoon.
Coastal Flood Advisory for

Great South Bay and
Jamaica Bay Saturday Night .
High Surf Advisory extended

through Sunday morning.
Weather Forecast Office Presentation Created
New York, NY Follow us on Twitter Follow us on Facebook 10/26/2018 5:44 PM 1
Main Points
Hazard Impacts Location Timing
• Widespread moderate coastal
flooding, with localized major. Vulnerable locales along
Inundation of 2 to 2 ½ ft, NY/NJ Harbor, Jamaica Times of high tide Saturday
locally 3 ft, above ground in Bay, S and E Bays of LI, morning into afternoon
vulnerable areas. and W LI Sound
Coastal
• Areas of dune erosion with
Impacts localized washovers at
oceanfront.
• Wind gusts of 40 to 50 kt.

• Seas of 10 to 13 ft on the
Ocean, and 4 to 8 ft on LI Nearshore Waters Late tonight through
Marine Sound. Saturday
• 25 to 35 mph with gusts to 40

to 50 mph, highest coast . 60
Strong NYC Metro, LI, Coastal Late tonight through
mph possible twin forks LI.
CT and Westchester Saturday Afternoon
Winds • Several downed trees and
power lines
• 1 to 2 inches, locally higher
possible.
• Localized flash flooding of Entire Tri-State Region Late tonight through
Heavy Rain urban areas, low-lying roads Saturday Afternoon
and quick responding small
rivers and streams
Summary of Greatest Impacts
Coastal Impacts: Vulnerable locales along NY/NJ Harbor,
Jamaica Bay, S and E Bays of LI, and W/E LI Sound
None Limited Elevated Significant Extreme
Marine: All Nearshore Waters

Strong Winds: NYC Metro, LI, Coastal CT and Westchester
Heavy Rain: Entire Tri-State Region


Heavy Rain – Flash Flood Watch in Effect for Fri
Night into Sat
Hazards:
 Rainfall of 1 to 2 inches across the region,
locally higher amounts possible.
 Rainfall rates of 1/4 to 1/2“/hr
Impacts:
 Widespread minor flooding of urban areas and
low-lying roads, with potential for flash
flooding across the watch area
 Potential for localized flash flooding along
quick responding small rivers, streams and
creek flooding across Northeastern NJ and
Lower Hudson Valley.
Timing:
 Heaviest rain from late tonight through
Saturday afternoon
Uncertainty/Scenarios:
A swath of heavier rain of 2 to 4 inches is possible
across Eastern LI and far Southeastern CT.
Heavy rain during the times of high tide Saturday
morning would result in more widespread flooding.
Strong/High Winds – High Wind Warning and Wind
Advisories in effect for Fri Night into Sat
Hazards:
 Northeast winds of 25 to 35 mph with
gusts 40 to 50 along the coast, including
NYC. Gusts to 60 mph possible across
the twin forks of LI.
 Northeast winds of 20 to 25 mph with
gusts 35 to 40 mph across the interior.
Impacts:
 Scattered downed trees and tree limbs
 Scattered power outages
 Dangerous travel conditions for high
profile vehicles
Timing:
 Strongest winds from late tonight through
Saturday afternoon

Coastal Flooding – Coastal Flood Warning and
Storm Warnings in Effect for Fri Night into Sat
Marine / Coastal Hazards Coastal Flood Hazards and Impacts:
 Widespread moderate coastal flooding (2 to 3 ft
of inundation above ground) for vulnerable
coastal locales along the southern and eastern
bays of LI, NY/NJ Harbor and Western LI
Sound.
 There is potential for localized major coastal
impacts (3 to 3 1/2 ft of inundation above
ground), particularly across the most vulnerable
Great South Bay and Jamaica Bay locales.
 Inundation of waterfront roads, parking lots and

properties, causing several road closures,
damage to vehicles and potential flooding to
vulnerable low-lying homes and business.
Shoreline Hazards and Impacts:

 8-12’ breaking waves along the oceanfront, 4 to
7’ along the twin forks, 3-5’ along LI sound
shoreline.
Please see our Coastal Flood page for more detailed  Widespread beach flooding and erosion.
 Areas of dune erosion with localized washovers.
information on the latest water level forecasts,
potential impacts and inundation maps, as well as a Timing:
tutorials.  During times of high tide Saturday morning into
https://www.weather.gov/okx/coastalflood afternoon.

Event Summary
 Widespread moderate coastal flood impacts (2 to 3 ft of inundation
above ground) are expected across much of the coastline on Saturday.
There is potential of localized major coastal impacts (3 to 3 ½ ft of
inundation above ground) across the most vulnerable Great South Bay
and Jamaica Bay locales.
 Gale and Storm conditions are expected on the nearshore waters late
tonight through Saturday.
 Strong winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts of 40 to 50 mph are likely late

tonight through Saturday afternoon, highest along NYC and the coast.
60 mph gusts are possible over the Twin Forks of Long Island.
Scattered downed trees, tree limbs and power lines are expected.
 Heavy rain of 1 to 2 inches is expected late tonight through Saturday

afternoon, with locally 2 to 4 inches possible across Eastern Long
Island and Southeastern Connecticut. This poses a potential for flash
flooding across much of the area.

Contact and Next Briefing Information
Next Briefing
This is the final briefing.
Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/NWSNewYorkNY
Web: Twitter:
http://www.weather.gov/okx/ http://www.twitter.com/NWSNewYorkNY
YouTube:
https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSNewYor
kNY
Disclaimer: The information contained within this briefing is

time-sensitive, do not use after 4 AM Saturday (10/27/18).


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Strong Coastal Storm Tonight into

What Has Changed?

Wind headlines extended

Coastal Flood Advisory for

High Surf Advisory extended

• Wind gusts of 40 to 50 kt.

• 25 to 35 mph with gusts to 40

Marine: All Nearshore Waters

Strong Winds: NYC Metro, LI, Coastal CT and Westchester

None Limited Elevated Significant Extreme

Heavy Rain: Entire Tri-State Region

Weather Forecast Office Presentation Created

Weather Forecast Office Presentation Created

 Inundation of waterfront roads, parking lots and

Shoreline Hazards and Impacts:

Weather Forecast Office Presentation Created

 Strong winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts of 40 to 50 mph are likely late

 Heavy rain of 1 to 2 inches is expected late tonight through Saturday

Weather Forecast Office Presentation Created

Disclaimer: The information contained within this briefing is

Weather Forecast Office Presentation Created

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