Investment Strategy For Mining Projects: 2.5.1.5 Profile
Investment Strategy For Mining Projects: 2.5.1.5 Profile
Investment Strategy For Mining Projects: 2.5.1.5 Profile
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INVESTMENT STRATEGY FOR MINING PROJECTS
D ENNIS A RROUET
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INVESTMENT STRATEGY FOR MINING PROJECTS 97
defined many ways over the years. Some of these measures and Returns
their peculiarities are detailed in the following. Accounting
Modern financial theory for measuring return on investment
uses an interest factor to equate cash inflow (outflows) in differ- Average net income 3.3
ent time periods. Thus $1 invested at 10% increases to $1.10 at Return on investment = 16.5%
Investment 20.0
the end of the first year, $1.21 after the second, etc. Similarly,
$1.21 received two years hence has a present value of $1 today, Return on average Average net income 3.3
= 33.3%
“discounted” at 10%. investment Average investment 10.0
Mathematically,
Payback: Years needed for 2 years
2 cash inflows to
FV = S1 (1 + i) + S2 (1 + i) + . . . (2.5.1)
equal cash outflows
Interest
S1 S2 + . . . (2.5.2)
PV = Present value 10% interest rate = $3.1
(1 + i) + (1 + i)2
Discounted cash flow return = 17.8%
where FV is future value, PV is present value, S is cash inflow
(outflow) per period, and i is interest or discount rate. Thus The controversy over what measure to use has largely been
investment returns are calculated by equating cash outflows for resolved in favor of the discounted cash flow method. Each
investment to cash inflows from operations (revenues less all individual or organization may use one or a number of these
cash operating costs, interest, taxes, maintenance and capital return measures to increase communication of “return” to the
expenditures, debt repayment), discounted at an appropriate in- many parties involved with the investment decision. Which mea-
terest rate. sure(s) parties use relates to factors peculiar to their own circum-
Example 2.5.1. stances.
The sophisticated decision maker knows that behind these
Project data (in million dollars) precise calculations are tangible and intangible data that are
Investment year 1 = $10, year 2 = $10 $20 uncertain. To cope with this uncertainty, decision makers use a
Operating cash flow year 3, 4, and 5 = $10 $30 number of techniques including the following:
Depreciation—life 3 years 1. More Accurate Forecasts. A worthy objective, but uncer-
—amount $20 tainty is not addressed.
Debt financing none 2. Higher Cutoff Rate. With a higher cutoff rate, a degree
Capital investment after start up none of risk is recognized as part of an investment. However, the
Solution. probability of returns exceeding the threshold is not recognized.
3. The Base and Most Likely Case. Returns are calculated
Depreciation per year $6.7 using “averages” for input variables. The base case is presumed
Average investment. Investment less one-half total $10 to be conservative, that is, low risk by implication. The most
depreciation likely case is moderate risk.
Average operating cash flow per year $10 4. “What If” Scenarios. A series of returns are calculated
Average net income. Average operating cash flow $3.3 using averages for all but one variable. For example, the base
per year less average depreciation per year case return is run at sales increases/decreases of 5%, l0%, and
15%. While this methodology shows the sensitivity of returns to
Investment Present Value change in specific variables, the likelihood of these events is not
and Operating $1 discounted Revalued quantified.
Cash Flows at l0%* Cash Flow 5. Simulation. Probability curves on each input variable are
developed based on estimates of those most knowledgeable in a
Year 1 (10) 0.909 (9.2) given area, for example, operating cost, selling price, etc. There-
2 (10) 0.826 (8.3) after, a probability is randomly selected from each probability
3 10 0.751 7.5 curve and then used to calculate a discounted cash flow rate of
4 10 0.683 6.8 return. Then the process is repeated many times. The probability
5 10 0.621 6.2 of all anticipated returns can then be graphed as shown in Figs.
3.1 2.5.1 and 2.5.2. Then assessing the project and comparing it to
other projects is easier and more meaningful.
Investment Discounted Cash Flow
and Operating $1 discounted Revalued 2.5.4 COST OF CAPITAL
Cash Flows at 17.8% Cash Flow
For an investment to add value, it must earn more than the
Year 1 (l0) 0.849 (8.5) cost of capital—the cost of debt and equity each weighted based
2 (10) 0.721 (7.2) upon the proportions of debt and equity the corporation targets
3 10 0.612 6.1 for its capital structure over the investment period.
4 10 0.519 5.2 While there are several models for calculating the cost of
5 10 0.440 4.4 capital, each at best is an estimate. The capital asset pricing
0.0 model that follows is the most widely used formulation. For
*Discount factors assume revenue received once per year. Year debt cost, calculate interest on incremental debt with a maturity
1 equals 1 divided by 1.10; year 2 equals 1 divided by 1.21, etc. similar to the investment less tax savings generated by deducting
98 MINING ENGINEERING HANDBOOK
Probability of achieving
Percent return at least the return shown
0% 96.5%
5 80.6
10 75.2
15 53.8
20 43.0
25 12.6
30 0
Fig. 2.5.2. Anticipated rates of return under old and new approaches
(Hertz, 1979).