Jubilant Life Sciences: CMP: INR809 Across-The-Board Traction Strengthening Growth Story
Jubilant Life Sciences: CMP: INR809 Across-The-Board Traction Strengthening Growth Story
Jubilant Life Sciences: CMP: INR809 Across-The-Board Traction Strengthening Growth Story
Stock Info in 1HFY19. Management reiterated that it is well placed to improve on this
Bloomberg JUBILANT IN performance in 2HFY19.
Equity Shares (m) 155 We expect Pharmaceutical business (55% of sales) to remain on a strong
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb) 128.9 / 1.8 footing, particularly in Specialty Pharmaceuticals. The operating environment
52-Week Range (INR) 1039 / 617 for Generic Pharmaceuticals is also favorable, according to management.
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%) 12/8/5 Life Science Ingredient segment (LSI – 45% of total sales) also stands to
12M Avg Val (INR M) 564
benefit from improved prospects for Vitamin business and reduced supply
Free float (%) 49.3
from Chinese competitors.
Financials Snapshot (INR b) We expect sales/PAT CAGR of 13%/23% to INR97b/INR11b over FY18-20. We
Y/E Mar 2018 2019E 2020E reiterate our Buy rating with a revised TP of INR965 (SOTP-based 12M
Net Sales 75.6 86.7 96.8 forward rolling).
EBITDA 15.2 18.9 21.2
PAT 7.1 9.3 10.8 Pharmaceutical – key pillars of growth in place
EPS (INR) 45.6 59.7 69.2 JLS performed much better than peers in Pharma segment, with EBITDA margin
Gr. (%) 23.3 30.9 16.1
improvement of ~700bp in 1HFY19 v/s FY18. We expect this momentum to
BV/Sh (INR) 262.3 317.0 380.5
18.9 20.6 19.9
continue, led by (1) increase in the number of Ruby-fill installations, improved
RoE (%)
RoCE (%) 12.1 13.7 14.2 penetration through Triad’s distribution network spread across 1,700 customers
P/E (x) 18.1 13.8 11.9 and better demand for existing products, (2) recently enhanced capacity in
P/BV (x) 3.1 2.6 2.2 Contract Manufacturing Organization (CMO) and Solid Dosage Formulation (SDF)
businesses, (3) expanding market share led by superior execution in Allergy
Shareholding pattern (%)
As On Sep-18 Jun-18 Sep-17 business, and (4) reduced competition in Active Pharmaceutical Ingredient (API)
Promoter 50.7 50.7 54.0 business, benefitting from cost efficiency and manufacturing issues for peers.
DII 4.3 5.1 5.3
FII 26.9 26.4 21.6 LSI – in a revival mode
Others 18.1 17.8 19.1 After coming in at an impressive INR4b (the best half yearly performance) in
FII Includes depository receipts 2HFY18, LSI segment EBITDA was subdued at INR2.2b in 1HFY19, largely due to
demand constraints, and thus, inferior pricing in nutritional products (17% of LSI
Stock Performance (1-year)
Jubilant Life
sales). However, we expect the ongoing demand improvement to provide much-
Sensex - Rebased needed support in 2HFY19. The segment also has more catalysts in the form of own
1,020
capacity expansion and ongoing slowdown in manufacturing in China (due to
880 government crackdown on polluting companies).
Nov-18
May-18
Aug-18
Feb-18
forward rolling). We expect PAT CAGR of 23% to INR10.7b over FY18-20 on the
back of improved performance across business segments. Re-iterate Buy.
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Life Science Chemicals – Better off-take and pricing to aid growth over
Life science chemicals as medium-term
a % of sales in FY18
JLS is in the process of enhancing capacity for Acetic Anhydride to cater to
increasing demand in pharma, agrochemicals, drug and dyes sector.
24.1
The Acetic anhydride capacity expansion is expected to be completed by
4QFY19. The revenue from this capacity is expected to increase gradually and
has potential to reach INR4b at optimum capacity with expected payback of 4-5
years.
JLS intends to increase its market share globally, by increasing its presence in
Europe and South East Asia.
Source: MOSL, Company
The manufacturing facility is near the sugarcane belt as raw materials required
for producing Ethanol are available at a lower cost. Based on the capacity and
pricing, JLS is the fourth largest supplier of Ethanol to the Government of India
under the Ethanol Blending Program (EBP).
We expect this segment to see revenue CAGR of 10.5% for FY18-20 and to reach
revenues of INR22.2b (INR18.2b in FY18).
4 December 2018 4
Jubilant Life Sciences
Story in charts
Exhibit 1: Both Pharma & LSI to drive revenue growth Exhibit 2: Margins to improve gradually over next 2 years
Total Revenue (INRb) Yoy growth (%) EBITDA Margin (%) Gross Margin (%)
96.8
86.7 63.2 65.9
75.6 60.1 57.9 62.0 61.9 62.1
54.3
58.0 58.3 57.5 58.6
51.7
28.9
20.1 14.7 21.7 23.0 21.8 21.9
12.3 11.6 20.4 17.4 20.1
0.4 (1.3) 2.0 11.8
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19E
FY20E
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19E
Exhibit 3: Specialty & Generics to aid growth in Pharma Exhibit 4: LSI growth to slow down on a high FY18 base
Pharma (INRb) YoY Growth (%) Life Sciences Ingredients (INRb) Growth YoY (%)
27.0 28.9 22.9 24.3
23.0 19.1
14.4 12.5 10.6
12.7
6.5 2.2 (1.5)
3.7 1.3
(12.6)
24.4 25.3 25.6 29.3 31.2 40.2 49.4 55.7 25.03 30.8 31.4 27.5 27.1 33.6 37.8 41.9
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19E
FY20E
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19E
FY20E
Source: MOSL, Company Source: MOSL, Company
Exhibit 5: JLS continues to reduce debt Exhibit 6: ROE and ROCE on an upward trend
Interest Expense as % of EBITDA ROE (%) ROCE (%)
3.6 3.7
3.2 3.4 20.6
3.0 18.9 19.9
2.8 18.0
51.6 2.3 14.5
2.1 2.1 10.9 9.9
13.7 14.2
32.1 29.8 11.2 12.1
28.3 (4.2) 8.9
23.9 25.4 7.2 7.2
18.7 12.4 9.9
(6.2)
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19E
FY20E
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19E
FY20E
4 December 2018 5
Jubilant Life Sciences
4 December 2018 6
Jubilant Life Sciences
4 December 2018 7
Jubilant Life Sciences
NOTES
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Registration details: MOSL: SEBI Registration: INZ000158836 (BSE/NSE/MCX/NCDEX); CDSL: IN-DP-16-2015; NSDL: IN-DP-NSDL-152-2000; Research Analyst: INH000000412.
AMFI: ARN 17397. Investment Adviser: INA000007100. Motilal Oswal Asset Management Company Ltd. (MOAMC): PMS (Registration No.: INP000000670) offers PMS and Mutual
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* MOSL has been amalgamated with Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited (MOFSL) w.e.f August 21, 2018 pursuant to order dated July 30, 2018 issued by Hon'ble National
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4 December 2018 10