Consumer Expectations Survey: First Quarter 2019
Consumer Expectations Survey: First Quarter 2019
Consumer Expectations Survey: First Quarter 2019
Consumer confidence Consumer outlook improved for Q1 2019, as the overall confidence index (CI)2
improves for Q1 2019… rose to -0.5 percent from -22.5 percent in Q4 2018, registering the all-time
largest quarter-on-quarter increase since the start of the nationwide survey in
Q1 2007. The higher, albeit negative, CI indicates that the number of
households with optimistic views considerably increased, but was still lower
than those who think otherwise. According to respondents, their improved
outlook during the current quarter was mainly brought about by their
expectations of: (a) additional/high income, (b) improvement in peace and
order, (c) availability of more jobs,3 and (d) good governance.
The sentiment of consumers in the Philippines for Q1 2019 mirrored the less
pessimistic confidence of those in the Euro Area, France, South Korea,
Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, and the United Kingdom. However, this was in
contrast to the less optimistic views of consumers in Australia and Indonesia.4
1 The Consumer Expectations Survey (CES) is a quarterly survey of a random sample of about 5,000 households in the Philippines. Results of the CES
provide advance indication of consumer sentiments for the current and the next quarters and the year-ahead as reflected in the overall CI, as well
as in selected economic indicators.
2 The CI is computed as the percentage of households that answered in the affirmative less the percentage of households that answered in the
negative with respect to their views on a given indicator. A positive CI indicates a favorable view, except for the inflation rate, the peso-borrowing
rate, unemployment and change in prices, where a positive CI indicates the opposite. The overall consumer CI measures the average direction of
change in three indicators - overall condition of the economy, household finances, and household income. (See Technical Notes for the definition of
terms.)
3 On 6 February 2019, Labor Secretary Silvestre Bello III said that over 3,000 businesses will implement the 3-year regularization program under an
agreement to be signed between the Department of Labor and Employment (DOLE) and the establishments (Rappler). According to DOLE, over
22,000 jobs will be available for ‘skilled’ jobseekers during a job fair at the Subic Bay Metropolitan Authority gymnasium on 9 February 2019 (Manila
Bulletin). Moreover, McDonald’s Philippines will be hiring nearly 20,000 new employees in 2019 with the application process scheduled in February
2019 (Rappler).
4 CI of other countries are sourced from the following links: https://www.conference-board.org/data/consumerconfidence.cfm,
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Consumer Expectations Survey First Quarter 2019
…the next quarter and Improvement in the consumer sentiment was carried to the subsequent
the year ahead... reference periods as the next 3 months CI reverted to positive territory at
10.7 percent from -0.8 percent in the previous quarter, and the year ahead CI
rose to 28.4 percent from 10.7 percent in Q4 2018. Similar to the current
quarter, the consumer outlook was more upbeat for the next quarter and the
year ahead due to expectations of additional/high income and availability of
more jobs. Further, respondents anticipated stable prices of goods and salary
increases for the next 12 months.
…across the three indicators The improved consumer confidence for Q1 2019 was observed across the
for Q1 2019… three component indicators of consumer confidence, namely, the country’s
economic condition, family financial situation, and family income. Notably,
the CIs for economic condition and family income posted the largest positive
changes in their respective index levels since Q1 2007. Likewise, for the next
quarter and the year ahead, consumer confidence, as measured by the three
component indicators, improved. In particular, the next quarter CIs for
economic condition and family financial situation reverted to positive
territory and the year ahead CIs for family financial situation and family
income registered the biggest upsurge since the start of the nationwide
survey.
…and across all income Likewise, consumer confidence across income5 groups improved for the
groups for the current current quarter. The consumer outlook was less pessimistic for the
quarter. low-income group, turned positive for the middle-income group and was
more favorable for the high-income group. The additional income,
improvement in peace and order, and availability of more jobs were the
common reasons for the improved outlook across income groups for Q1 2019.
Meanwhile, the high-income group was optimistic as they also anticipated
more income and additional working family members.
For the next quarter and the year ahead, the consumer sentiment turned
optimistic for the low-income group, more buoyant for the middle-income
group, but generally steady for the high-income group.
5 Low-income group refers to households with monthly family income of less than P10,000. Middle-income group refers to households with monthly
family income between P10,000-P29,999. High-income group refers to households with monthly family income of more than P30,000. Starting
Q1 2019, the monthly family income is estimated using income from the respondent, spouse, other family members, and received OFW remittances.
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Consumer Expectations Survey First Quarter 2019
Consumer sentiment turns By geographical location, consumer outlook in both the National Capital
optimistic in NCR and Region (NCR) and Areas Outside NCR (AONCR) registered all-time high
less pessimistic in quarter-on-quarter increase for the current quarter, consistent with the
AONCR for the national trend. The outlook of consumers in NCR turned optimistic, while that
current quarter. of AONCR was less pessimistic. The improved consumer confidence in both
NCR and AONCR was reflected across all three economic indicators in
Q1 2019.
For the next quarter and the year ahead, consumer sentiment improved in
both areas, as the CI either turned more positive or reverted to positive
territory.
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Consumer Expectations Survey First Quarter 2019
Consumers’ spending outlook The spending outlook index of households on basic goods and services
declines for the next quarter. declined to 39.6 percent for Q2 2019 (from 42.3 percent in the previous
quarter’s survey results). This suggests that while more respondents continue
to expect higher spending on basic goods and services, the number that said
so decreased compared to a quarter ago, indicating that growth in consumer
spending may slow down for the next 3 months.
Buying conditions for big- The percentage of households that considered the current quarter as a
ticket items is more favorable favorable time to buy big-ticket items increased to 26.5 percent from
for the current quarter… 24.5 percent recorded a quarter ago. The more sanguine outlook on buying
conditions was evident across the three big-ticket items, with the highest
percentage on the purchase of real properties, followed by consumer
durables and motor vehicles.
…while buying intentions is Meanwhile, buying intentions for big-ticket items remained steady for real
steady for the next estate, motor vehicles and consumer durables.
12 months.
By geographical location, buying intentions for big-ticket items in the NCR was
more buoyant as consumers’ buying intentions for motor vehicles and real
estate improved, while that for consumer durables remained broadly steady.
Meanwhile, the overall buying intentions in AONCR was consistent with the
steady buying intentions for the country.
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Consumer Expectations Survey First Quarter 2019
11.6 percent from 14.8 percent in the previous quarter) of the said
households expected to buy house and/or lot at an estimated cost of more
than ₱1,700,000.6
Savings Behavior7
The percentage of For Q1 2019, the percentage of households with savings rose to 36.6 percent
households with from 32.8 percent in the previous quarter. The increase in percentage of
savings rises for savers was observed in both NCR and AONCR. According to respondents, they
Q1 2019. save money for the following reasons: (a) emergencies, (b) health and
hospitalization, (c) education, (d) retirement, (e) business capital and
investment, and (f) purchase of real estate.
The percentage of respondents who reported that they could set aside money
for savings during the current quarter grew to 41 percent (from
40.2 percent in Q4 2018). However, the proportion of those that could set
aside 10 percent or more of their monthly gross family income was lower at
31.5 percent from 32.8 percent, a quarter ago.
6 In Q2 2018, questions on the type and the amount of house and/or lot intended to be bought by households were added.
7 In Q2 2013, questions on family savings were added to provide additional information on households’ financial assets and their access to financial
institutions.
8 Cooperatives are duly registered associations of at least fifteen (15) persons with a common bond of interest who voluntarily join together to
achieve a lawful common social and economic end. Associations are organizations of people with a common purpose and having a formal structure.
Paluwagan refers to an organization that pools the participants’ money, by means of daily, weekly, or monthly collections to be collected by a
leader. The participants will cast lots to determine the order by which each of the members will receive the pooled money.
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Consumer Expectations Survey First Quarter 2019
Consumers expect inflation The survey results showed that consumers anticipated inflation to increase,
and interest rates to increase interest rates to go up and the peso to depreciate for the next 12 months.
and the exchange rate to Consumers who expected inflation to go up continued to outnumber those
depreciate for the that held the opposite view for the next 12 months, but the number that said
year ahead. so declined from that of a quarter ago. However, respondents expected that
the rate of increase in commodity prices will breach the upper end of the
government’s 2 to 4 percent inflation target range for 2019, at 4.7 percent,
over the course of the next 12 months, but lower than the anticipated
5.1 percent in the Q4 2018 survey. Meanwhile, fewer respondents expected
interest rate to increase and the peso to depreciate. Similarly, while
respondents anticipated unemployment to increase, the number that said so
declined.
OFW households that utilize Of the 443 households included in the survey that received OFW remittances
their remittances for savings for Q1 2019, 95.5 percent used the remittances that they received to
and investment decrease purchase food and other household needs, a decrease from 98.5 percent
for the current quarter. recorded in the Q4 2018 result. Further, the proportion of OFW households
that allotted part of their remittances for education (65.7 percent), medical
expenses (46.3 percent), savings (33 percent), debt payments (21.4 percent),
purchase of house (10.2 percent), and investment (3.8 percent) decreased
compared to the previous quarter’s survey results. The lower quarter-on-
quarter percentage of OFW households that allotted remittances for debt
payments is consistent with the lesser number of respondents and his/her
spouse who declared having an outstanding loan. Meanwhile, the percentage
of OFW households apportioned their remittances for purchase of
appliances/consumer durables (19.2 percent), purchase of car/motor vehicle
(10.2 percent) as well as other miscellaneous expenses (3.8 percent)
increased, which is consistent with the more favorable nationwide buying
conditions for the said big-ticket items.
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Revised Page
Agenda Item No. 39
28 March 2019 MB Meeting
Consumer Expectations Survey First Quarter 2019
Debt-to-income ratio of Almost one-third or 30.7 percent (equivalent to 1655 households) of the
surveyed respondents respondents declared that he/she and/or his/her spouse have an outstanding
rose to 37.9 percent loan11 at present. By geographical area, 34.3 percent of the households with
for Q1 2019. outstanding loans were from the NCR and 65.7 percent from the AONCR.
Meanwhile, by income groups, 26.3 percent, 44.2 percent, and 29.5 percent
of the households came from the low-, medium-, and high-income groups,
respectively.
9 In Q2 2018, question on the experience of OFW households in receiving the money transferred by the OFW was added.
10 In Q2 2018, questions on the respondent and/or spouse debt situation were added.
11 Outstanding debt/loan pertains to the unpaid balance of loans by respondent including spouse/partner which was reported active at the time of
interview.
12 Computed as the ratio of monthly debt per capita and monthly amortization of loan times 100.
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Consumer Expectations Survey First Quarter 2019
Similar to the previous quarter, most of the loans availed (at 91.9 percent)
had no collateral. Respondents’ relied more on the “Sangla ATM”, the most
common collateral used at 2.2 percent for Q1 2019 (from 3.1 percent in
Q4 2018). Other collaterals used were vehicle (1.3 percent), land13
(1.2 percent), and real property (1.1 percent).
For the next quarter and the year ahead, more respondents expected their
outstanding loans to decrease compared to previous quarter’s survey result.
For Q1 2019, the index on debt payment experience improved, but remained
in negative territory at -0.8 percent from -2.7 percent in Q4 2018. This means
that the number of respondents who found it easier to pay household debt
increased, but continued to be less than those who think otherwise. The
reason for the difficulty in paying household debt may be due to the
following: (a) income is not enough, (b) low income, (c) budget deficit, (d) no
regular source of income, and (e) business is down.
A total of 5,396 households The Consumer Expectations Survey (CES) started in Q3 2004 covering the NCR
nationwide participated only. Beginning Q1 2007, the BSP expanded the survey’s scope to cover the
in the survey. whole country.
The Q1 2019 CES was conducted during the period 5 – 16 February 2019. The
CES samples were drawn from the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) Master
Sample List of Households, which is considered a representative sample of
households nationwide. The CES sample households were generated using a
stratified multi-stage probability sampling scheme.14 It has a sample size of
5,562 households, of which 2,665 (47.9 percent) were from NCR and 2,897
(52.1 percent) from AONCR.
13 Refers to any type of lot, whether agricultural, residential, or commercial, without any structure attached to it.
14 The Master Sample was subdivided into Primary Sampling Units (PSU) (i.e., a whole barangay or a portion of a large barangay or combinations of
small barangays) ordered according to the following: (1) North-South/West-East Geographic location; (2) Decreasing Population of Households with
Overseas Workers; and (3) Decreasing Wealth index. Under the ordered list of PSUs, sample households will be systematically drawn from the
randomly selected PSUs.
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Consumer Expectations Survey First Quarter 2019
TECHNICAL NOTES
The overall consumer confidence index is computed as the average of the three indices, namely:
1. Economic Condition refers to the perception of the respondent regarding the general economic condition of the
country.
2. Family Financial Situation refers to the level of: a) household income in cash as well as in kind, b) savings,
c) outstanding debts, d) investments and e) assets.
3. Family Income includes primary income and receipts from other sources received by all family members as
participants in any economic activity or as recipients of transfers, pensions, grants, and the like.
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Consumer Expectations Survey
Philippines
Q1 2014 - Q1 2019
2. Consumer Outlook Indices on the Current Economic and Family Condition: Current Quarter
Philippines
Economic Condition -32.7 -30.2 -46.6 -38.2 -15.8 -31.1 -22.7 -13.9 -10.1 -15.8 9.5 21.9 21.9 26.6 13.9 10.9 -0.1 5.7 -17.0 -43.6 -1.2
Less than P10,000 -36.2 -34.5 -49.5 -40.1 -21.4 -37.4 -27.1 -17.5 -13.8 -18.1 8.6 20.4 17.9 23.4 6.9 5.3 -5.4 -0.8 -19.1 -45.0 -14.3
P10,000-P29,999 -31.2 -27.4 -45.5 -37.3 -9.2 -26.1 -18.7 -11.5 -5.4 -14.7 8.4 24.7 24.8 27.6 19.5 15.3 3.8 11.1 -18.3 -45.6 3.0
P30,000 and over -18.6 -16.3 -33.2 -28.3 -5.6 -15.1 -9.2 -0.9 -4.1 -8.6 19.0 21.7 32.8 38.0 28.5 23.9 10.2 18.2 -4.9 -34.7 8.3
Family Financial Situation -16.7 -16.8 -23.8 -19.6 -11.7 -13.0 -10.6 -9.9 -6.3 -4.4 -2.2 0.7 1.2 4.4 7.6 7.3 -1.3 0.2 -5.3 -17.5 -4.4
Less than P10,000 -29.3 -34.6 -38.8 -33.8 -27.2 -30.3 -23.7 -25.6 -21.2 -21.5 -15.9 -12.6 -11.8 -12.4 -8.4 -5.7 -15.9 -14.9 -20.2 -33.8 -21.4
P10,000-P29,999 -4.8 2.1 -6.9 -4.0 6.1 0.5 3.1 3.1 8.5 9.2 12.9 13.2 12.7 18.6 20.3 17.6 9.0 10.6 3.1 -10.9 -0.2
P30,000 and over 15.9 18.8 13.1 19.9 17.3 31.8 26.0 35.8 30.7 34.6 31.1 33.0 31.2 39.4 40.8 37.8 27.6 35.1 27.6 13.3 9.6
Family Income -7.1 -4.9 -8.4 -7.7 -2.7 -4.6 -1.4 -0.5 -0.5 0.9 0.2 4.9 3.0 8.3 9.0 10.3 6.6 5.5 1.0 -6.5 4.1
Less than P10,000 -15.8 -20.6 -20.0 -18.7 -13.9 -17.7 -11.5 -12.7 -10.9 -12.0 -9.3 -6.7 -7.9 -4.6 -4.4 -1.3 -4.2 -7.9 -12.7 -20.3 -13.6
P10,000-P29,999 0.9 12.4 4.1 4.9 9.6 5.2 9.8 10.9 8.9 12.0 9.7 16.2 12.0 19.9 20.1 19.2 12.0 16.0 9.0 -4.0 11.3
P30,000 and over 16.2 24.2 21.9 22.2 19.8 30.5 23.9 31.2 27.8 28.7 26.2 32.6 29.7 33.0 35.8 38.2 33.6 32.3 30.2 27.2 14.7
NCR
Economic Condition -32.9 -37.1 -49.3 -44.9 -17.1 -22.4 -19.1 -13.6 -12.1 -21.1 9.2 9.1 12.1 14.0 12.9 -2.4 10.3 3.2 -12.6 -35.4 -1.7
Less than P10,000 -44.8 -51.1 -61.3 -56.3 -34.3 -38.5 -30.1 -22.1 -24.1 -30.0 5.4 -0.3 -2.0 -3.8 1.7 -12.5 -8.1 -9.6 -27.3 -44.1 -13.4
P10,000-P29,999 -32.0 -37.5 -50.4 -43.5 -10.4 -21.2 -18.8 -13.3 -9.2 -20.5 7.7 9.9 10.7 10.8 15.1 -4.0 10.0 4.3 -11.5 -38.5 -3.0
P30,000 and over -19.5 -17.4 -34.2 -30.9 -7.1 -10.0 -1.9 -1.1 0.0 -10.8 17.3 19.6 26.1 36.7 19.5 10.4 22.6 17.0 -0.7 -22.9 6.2
Family Financial Situation -10.4 -8.6 -14.3 -13.6 -2.5 5.6 2.4 3.9 4.1 4.0 6.9 11.0 7.4 7.9 9.1 12.7 12.9 9.1 -0.1 -11.3 6.4
Less than P10,000 -38.9 -43.5 -44.7 -38.6 -34.0 -27.6 -25.8 -19.7 -15.3 -26.7 -19.3 -20.5 -24.5 -27.4 -25.5 -14.2 -24.3 -18.7 -31.4 -31.8 -18.4
P10,000-P29,999 -8.6 -4.8 -14.5 -14.9 2.1 3.9 5.2 5.2 5.2 6.8 7.7 15.9 3.9 8.6 9.7 11.0 11.3 9.4 -2.0 -17.6 3.8
P30,000 and over 22.4 30.6 19.4 27.9 31.7 39.4 42.9 38.1 32.8 37.5 38.8 40.6 39.0 38.4 40.3 42.4 39.6 44.8 35.4 16.5 22.5
Family Income -8.6 -6.2 -8.8 -8.1 1.5 5.7 3.2 5.7 4.8 4.5 5.7 7.0 6.3 8.0 11.5 9.4 13.1 11.0 5.1 -4.2 8.5
Less than P10,000 -34.9 -32.9 -37.7 -29.0 -24.0 -23.6 -17.5 -13.6 -13.0 -19.5 -15.0 -21.0 -18.9 -20.8 -15.0 -15.9 -19.7 -13.0 -21.2 -26.2 -17.5
P10,000-P29,999 -6.4 -3.5 -7.8 -7.9 4.6 3.7 5.3 8.0 4.9 7.3 7.3 12.2 4.8 10.7 14.3 8.2 11.3 10.6 5.2 -7.0 8.2
P30,000 and over 20.6 24.3 21.2 23.4 30.5 36.4 32.9 30.6 33.6 29.4 28.8 31.3 29.4 28.7 31.2 36.7 37.1 43.3 30.9 17.8 21.5
2. Consumer Outlook Indices on the Current Economic and Family Condition: Current Quarter (Continued)
AONCR
Economic Condition -32.6 -29.1 -46.2 -37.1 -15.5 -32.5 -23.3 -13.9 -9.8 -15.0 9.6 23.9 23.4 28.6 14.1 13.0 -1.8 6.2 -17.7 -44.9 -1.1
Less than P10,000 -35.5 -33.1 -48.6 -38.9 -20.3 -37.3 -26.8 -17.1 -12.9 -17.2 8.8 21.9 19.1 25.1 7.2 6.6 -5.3 -0.2 -18.6 -45.1 -14.4
P10,000-P29,999 -30.9 -24.8 -44.2 -35.6 -8.9 -27.4 -18.7 -11.0 -4.3 -13.1 8.6 28.9 28.5 32.0 20.6 20.2 2.2 12.9 -20.0 -47.2 4.4
P30,000 and over -18.2 -15.8 -32.6 -27.2 -5.1 -17.4 -12.2 -0.8 -5.5 -7.9 19.8 22.5 36.1 38.5 32.4 29.6 4.9 18.5 -6.3 -38.4 8.7
Family Financial Situation -17.7 -18.1 -25.3 -20.6 -13.2 -16.1 -12.7 -12.2 -8.0 -5.8 -3.6 -1.0 0.2 3.9 7.4 6.4 -3.6 -1.2 -6.1 -18.5 -6.2
Less than P10,000 -28.6 -33.9 -38.4 -33.4 -26.7 -30.5 -23.5 -26.1 -21.7 -21.1 -15.6 -12.0 -11.0 -11.5 -7.2 -5.1 -15.4 -14.6 -19.4 -33.9 -21.6
P10,000-P29,999 -3.8 3.8 -4.9 -0.9 7.1 -0.5 2.6 2.6 9.4 9.8 14.3 12.4 15.0 21.2 22.8 19.2 8.4 10.9 4.4 -9.3 -1.1
P30,000 and over 13.3 13.9 9.5 16.5 11.7 28.3 19.0 34.9 30.0 33.7 27.6 30.3 27.4 39.8 41.1 35.8 22.5 32.1 25.0 12.3 7.1
Family Income -6.8 -4.7 -8.4 -7.6 -3.4 -6.2 -2.2 -1.5 -1.4 0.4 -0.7 4.6 2.4 8.4 8.6 10.4 5.5 4.6 0.3 -6.9 3.4
Less than P10,000 -14.4 -19.6 -18.8 -17.9 -13.0 -17.3 -10.9 -12.6 -10.8 -11.5 -8.9 -5.7 -7.2 -3.6 -3.6 -0.3 -3.4 -7.5 -12.1 -19.9 -13.3
P10,000-P29,999 2.9 16.3 7.2 8.5 10.8 5.6 11.0 11.6 10.0 13.3 10.3 17.4 13.9 22.4 21.4 21.9 12.2 17.4 10.0 -3.3 12.1
P30,000 and over 14.4 24.2 22.3 21.7 15.7 27.8 20.1 31.4 25.9 28.5 25.1 33.1 29.8 34.8 37.8 38.8 32.1 28.9 29.9 30.1 13.4
NCR 24.7 25.9 30.6 26.9 26.5 32.6 27.8 23.6 31.8 29.1 30.5 28.4 32.5 32.5 35.2 31.6 34.3 28.6 28.3 24.5 28.0
Consumer Durables 31.3 32.1 36.3 32.3 33.0 37.0 32.4 30.4 37.2 34.4 35.3 35.1 39.8 40.5 39.8 42.0 41.9 34.5 35.7 28.7 31.6
Motor Vehicle 13.7 14.5 19.4 15.9 15.6 20.6 17.5 13.3 20.3 19.5 18.1 16.5 15.7 17.5 22.1 16.4 18.1 15.7 14.2 11.6 15.5
House & Lot 29.0 31.2 35.9 32.4 30.8 40.2 33.6 27.2 37.8 33.4 38.1 33.7 42.1 39.5 43.8 36.5 43.0 35.5 35.0 33.3 36.9
AONCR 24.1 24.3 24.0 23.5 28.7 29.9 27.3 31.3 29.3 28.8 27.9 30.5 31.4 34.1 29.4 31.9 31.2 31.0 26.1 24.5 26.2
Consumer Durables 23.8 24.6 23.6 23.7 27.6 27.8 26.0 32.5 29.5 30.3 27.4 31.6 31.5 33.7 29.9 30.2 30.1 31.8 27.8 24.7 25.8
Motor Vehicle 16.4 16.1 16.4 17.1 23.5 23.5 20.4 22.6 20.3 21.1 21.7 22.8 21.4 24.8 21.9 24.3 23.2 21.6 17.7 16.9 19.4
House & Lot 31.9 32.4 32.1 29.8 35.0 38.5 35.6 38.6 38.1 35.1 34.5 37.2 41.3 43.8 36.5 41.2 40.2 39.6 32.9 32.0 33.4
7. Percentage of households who intend to buy in the next 12 months
Philippines 8.8 8.6 9.3 10.4 11.6 12.6 11.6 10.1 11.3 9.3 10.9 10.6 11.5 12.3 11.2 12.7 10.1 11.0 10.2 9.4 9.6
Consumer Durables 12.5 12.6 12.6 14.5 17.1 16.6 15.9 15.2 16.3 14.4 15.3 15.5 16.8 17.4 16.1 18.2 15.1 16.8 15.0 13.6 14.2
Motor Vehicle 5.3 4.9 6.2 6.7 8.1 9.2 7.9 6.3 7.5 5.7 7.2 6.6 7.1 8.5 7.6 8.6 6.2 6.9 6.3 5.2 5.8
House & Lot 8.6 8.2 9.0 9.9 9.5 11.9 11.0 8.8 9.9 8.0 10.3 9.5 10.5 11.0 9.8 11.2 9.1 9.3 9.2 9.3 9.0
NCR 7.3 6.8 9.5 8.0 6.9 9.3 10.9 8.0 9.7 10.1 9.2 8.2 9.1 9.7 10.6 11.9 11.2 11.0 11.8 9.6 11.5
Consumer Durables 13.8 11.7 17.4 15.2 13.9 16.7 18.0 14.3 16.4 15.3 15.4 15.4 17.0 16.4 16.5 23.1 18.0 16.2 18.9 15.2 16.1
Motor Vehicle 3.1 2.7 4.0 3.0 2.2 3.2 5.7 3.7 4.5 5.9 4.1 3.3 3.0 4.3 5.4 4.2 5.0 5.3 5.1 4.8 6.5
House & Lot 4.9 6.0 7.0 5.6 4.7 8.0 9.0 6.0 8.3 9.2 8.1 5.8 7.2 8.5 10.0 8.5 10.5 11.6 11.3 8.9 11.8
AONCR 9.0 8.9 9.2 10.8 12.3 13.1 11.7 10.4 11.5 9.2 11.2 10.9 11.8 12.7 11.2 12.8 10.0 11.0 9.9 9.3 9.3
Consumer Durables 12.3 12.8 11.8 14.4 17.6 16.6 15.6 15.4 16.3 14.2 15.2 15.5 16.8 17.6 16.0 17.4 14.7 16.9 14.3 13.3 13.8
Motor Vehicle 5.6 5.2 6.6 7.3 9.0 10.2 8.3 6.7 8.0 5.6 7.7 7.2 7.7 9.2 8.0 9.4 6.4 7.1 6.5 5.3 5.7
House & Lot 9.2 8.6 9.3 10.6 10.3 12.5 11.3 9.2 10.2 7.8 10.6 10.1 11.0 11.4 9.7 11.6 8.9 9.0 8.9 9.4 8.5
8. Percentage of the type of house and/or lot the households intends to buy in the next 12 months
Philippines
Single Detached 75.1 40.4 42.5 35.9
Residential Lot 1.6 31.7 24.7 34.3
Additional Types 23.3 27.9 32.8 29.8
Duplex 7.6 8.6 5.8 5.2
Townhouse 3.3 4.1 5.4 3.8
Apartment 3.6 2.0 3.5 3.9
Condominium Unit 1.1 1.3 1.1 1.5
Agricultural Lot 4.8 6.9 10.8 13.9
Commercial Lot 0.1 4.2 6.2 1.4
Others 2.9 0.8 0.1 0.1
NCR
Single Detached 71.6 52.0 30.9 40.6
Residential Lot 0.4 17.3 22.8 17.0
Additional Types 27.9 30.7 46.3 42.4
Duplex 8.8 9.8 5.2 15.7
Townhouse 6.6 7.9 16.8 10.1
Apartment 5.6 6.2 10.2 4.9
Condominium Unit 6.3 3.9 7.8 6.7
Agricultural Lot 0.3 1.8 1.9 2.0
Commercial Lot 0.0 0.4 4.0 2.2
Others 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.7
AONCR
Single Detached 75.8 38.0 44.3 34.8
Residential Lot 1.9 34.6 25.0 38.2
Additional Types 22.3 27.4 30.7 27.0
Duplex 7.4 8.4 5.8 2.8
Townhouse 2.6 3.4 3.7 2.3
Apartment 3.2 1.2 2.4 3.7
Condominium Unit 0.0 0.8 0.1 0.3
Agricultural Lot 5.7 7.9 12.2 16.6
Commercial Lot 0.1 4.9 6.5 1.3
Others 3.4 0.8 0.0 0.0
9. Percentage of the price of house and/or lot the households intends to buy in the next 12 months
Philippines
P450,000 and below 53.9 56.2 60.7 60.3
P450,001 to P1,700,000 35.7 33.7 24.5 28.1
P1,700,001 to P3,000,000 7.5 6.6 9.4 7.7
P3,000,001 to P4,000,000 1.4 1.2 2.8 2.4
P4,000,001 and above 1.5 2.2 2.6 1.5
NCR
P450,000 and below 38.3 32.6 25.5 33.0
P450,001 to P1,700,000 30.9 38.6 34.2 28.8
P1,700,001 to P3,000,000 18.3 18.1 22.0 23.2
P3,000,001 to P4,000,000 7.9 3.8 11.1 9.1
P4,000,001 and above 4.5 6.8 7.2 5.9
AONCR
P450,000 and below 57.1 61.0 66.0 66.4
P450,001 to P1,700,000 36.7 32.7 23.1 27.9
P1,700,001 to P3,000,000 5.2 4.3 7.5 4.2
P3,000,001 to P4,000,000 0.1 0.7 1.5 1.0
P4,000,001 and above 0.9 1.3 2.0 0.6
* For Q3 2018, only respondents who indicated their family income are included in the calculation of the percentage distribution of respondents by income group.
A quarterly survey conducted by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas
Department of Economic Statististics Manila, Philippines
www.bsp.gov.ph
Page 9
Consumer Expectations Survey
Philippines
Q1 2014 - Q1 2019
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
P10,000-P29,999
Bank 64.9 65.2 64.3 69.7 70.4 71.0 71.8 69.2 70.3 67.9 70.4 70.8 64.8 65.1 65.2 66.0 58.9 60.1 62.6 67.6 60.4
House* 24.6 23.5 24.9 31.6 37.4 39.9 43.2 39.6 44.1 46.2 41.2 46.6 43.6 48.2 42.4 44.7 48.5 51.1 49.6 49.0 46.3
Additional Types 10.5 11.3 10.8 22.2 24.5 21.9 33.3 33.6 25.5 28.2 27.1 36.0 24.2 28.1 30.8 37.5 29.5 33.6 31.0 28.4 26.4
Cooperatives 4.7 5.8 6.6 10.2 10.6 11.0 15.8 12.1 8.6 11.4 12.2 11.5 9.5 10.1 10.9 14.8 10.9 14.5 13.1 10.1 13.8
Paluwagan 2.5 1.7 1.4 5.2 5.7 3.0 8.1 7.7 6.1 5.1 5.1 7.7 5.0 6.1 6.8 6.7 5.7 8.3 6.6 6.9 7.0
Credit/Loans and Other Associations 3.0 2.1 2.5 6.3 7.7 7.5 8.0 12.6 8.8 11.4 8.4 13.3 7.1 10.9 11.7 13.8 11.2 9.3 9.3 10.0 4.8
Others 0.3 1.7 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.4 1.4 1.2 2.0 0.3 1.4 3.5 2.6 1.0 1.4 2.2 1.7 1.5 2.0 1.4 0.8
Percentage of Households who could set aside Savings in the Current Quarter 38.3 35.7 34.9 35.6 40.9 42.4 36.2 41.5 38.9 39.3 41.6 41.1 45.1 44.9 43.0 43.6 41.8 43.3 37.3 40.2 41.0
Less than P10,000 28.3 24.2 25.7 25.8 31.8 30.6 26.3 30.3 27.2 27.7 32.3 30.1 33.8 33.9 32.5 33.0 30.9 31.9 25.4 29.5 25.5
P10,000-P29,999 46.9 45.1 43.0 44.1 48.6 51.3 45.1 51.5 47.8 48.2 49.9 49.2 53.4 52.6 50.4 50.4 47.3 50.7 43.0 42.8 44.7
P30,000 and over 65.8 67.2 64.7 70.4 66.0 74.3 68.2 72.7 75.7 67.5 70.4 75.0 75.6 72.2 67.9 72.5 69.0 71.0 66.5 64.5 54.2
*kept at home
P10,000-P29,999
Less than 5% 27.4 27.7 33.7 25.5 29.3 29.9 36.1 30.3 31.9 30.4 28.1 24.4 24.5 28.8 31.5 34.9 33.0 34.8 35.7 36.9 36.0
5% to 9% 32.8 36.5 33.7 36.3 35.6 38.2 33.9 33.3 32.3 35.6 31.7 33.9 35.7 36.1 33.2 31.6 31.3 34.2 34.8 34.0 37.3
10% and over 39.8 35.9 32.5 38.2 35.2 32.0 30.0 36.3 35.8 34.0 40.2 41.7 39.9 35.0 35.3 33.5 35.6 31.0 29.4 29.1 26.7
10% to 14% 22.7 21.0 19.8 22.7 22.5 19.7 19.9 21.9 22.2 21.1 25.4 25.8 27.1 22.9 19.0 19.8 22.1 19.6 21.0 20.7 19.1
15% to 19% 5.9 6.1 4.9 5.4 5.2 5.6 4.0 4.6 4.8 4.7 5.4 7.3 4.3 4.9 7.3 4.7 4.9 5.0 2.8 2.3 3.0
20% to 24% 6.1 5.2 4.8 4.9 4.0 4.0 3.1 5.7 4.2 4.9 6.2 5.3 4.9 4.3 4.9 4.9 4.4 3.6 3.0 4.1 2.6
25% and over 5.1 3.6 3.0 5.2 3.5 2.7 3.0 4.1 4.6 3.3 3.2 3.3 3.6 2.9 4.1 4.1 4.2 2.8 2.6 2.0 2.0
P10,000-P29,999
Bank 67.8 67.6 66.4 74.2 77.7 75.9 78.2 72.8 73.3 71.3 72.2 76.3 68.1 70.3 71.0 72.5 61.5 67.9 70.0 77.0 68.6
House* 25.6 25.4 26.0 30.4 36.0 39.5 43.5 40.8 44.7 48.0 38.9 47.0 43.8 52.9 42.2 47.2 50.8 53.6 47.4 52.3 45.2
Additional Types 6.6 7.2 7.6 19.9 22.1 20.7 34.9 32.7 28.1 27.6 26.7 39.4 17.2 24.3 25.9 33.4 24.9 26.3 28.0 27.5 26.1
Cooperatives 3.3 3.9 4.0 7.5 8.7 8.6 13.7 8.4 8.0 10.8 11.2 9.9 5.6 7.8 6.6 12.2 9.2 10.7 13.8 8.8 12.6
Paluwagan 2.0 2.3 1.9 6.1 7.7 4.4 10.8 9.2 7.8 6.0 5.7 9.4 4.0 9.1 6.4 6.3 6.1 7.7 7.2 8.6 10.4
Credit/Loans and Other Associations 0.9 1.0 1.2 5.9 5.2 7.5 9.0 13.8 9.4 10.8 8.4 15.1 6.3 6.5 11.4 13.8 8.9 6.4 4.8 8.8 2.9
Others 0.4 0.0 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.2 1.4 1.3 2.9 0.0 1.4 5.0 1.3 0.9 1.5 1.1 0.7 1.5 2.2 1.3 0.2
Percentage of Households who could set aside Savings in the Current Quarter 40.6 42.1 46.5 41.1 44.5 43.5 43.8 46.0 45.2 42.4 43.9 47.0 45.1 48.0 49.0 49.1 48.9 42.7 39.2 41.1 45.0
Less than P10,000 18.1 21.3 24.1 21.9 22.6 22.0 26.2 28.8 29.3 22.1 24.0 22.2 20.5 23.4 22.2 25.7 29.1 24.9 20.0 22.4 19.9
P10,000-P29,999 39.2 40.9 44.8 41.8 43.3 39.3 43.7 46.2 43.9 42.7 42.6 48.0 38.6 44.2 49.4 44.8 44.3 41.7 35.1 37.1 40.4
P30,000 and over 72.7 73.2 74.2 69.1 77.4 71.3 73.0 72.8 74.5 68.6 72.4 77.1 75.6 77.9 73.3 79.7 69.6 68.4 68.1 62.9 64.4
*kept at home
P10,000-P29,999
Less than 5% 28.1 26.9 29.5 26.4 30.3 28.9 34.7 32.6 37.3 32.5 30.7 23.6 21.5 27.9 32.3 36.2 34.2 34.7 34.5 37.3 36.3
5% to 9% 34.5 36.7 36.4 36.3 37.0 42.7 34.7 31.3 33.0 37.3 32.8 34.2 36.2 39.4 32.0 30.7 29.8 32.0 35.1 34.6 37.0
10% and over 37.3 36.4 34.2 37.4 32.6 28.4 30.6 36.2 29.8 30.3 36.5 42.1 42.2 32.7 35.8 33.2 36.0 33.2 30.4 28.1 26.7
10% to 14% 22.8 21.0 20.5 24.1 20.4 19.4 21.8 22.4 21.5 20.0 25.1 26.6 29.2 22.8 18.3 19.9 22.4 22.4 21.7 20.7 19.1
15% to 19% 6.6 8.4 5.7 6.1 6.2 5.0 4.6 5.8 3.5 3.4 4.2 8.0 5.8 6.1 8.6 5.3 5.7 6.7 2.9 2.2 4.1
20% to 24% 4.7 5.6 5.7 3.6 2.9 2.2 1.9 4.4 2.3 4.6 5.1 5.0 3.6 2.3 5.0 4.1 4.6 3.0 3.1 3.7 2.2
25% and over 3.2 1.4 2.3 3.6 3.1 1.8 2.3 3.6 2.5 2.3 2.1 2.5 3.6 1.5 3.9 3.9 3.3 1.1 2.7 1.5 1.3
P10,000-P29,999
Bank 60.8 62.0 61.2 61.9 62.5 65.7 63.0 64.3 65.1 62.5 67.3 60.3 60.5 58.1 57.7 57.9 55.6 50.1 54.4 56.6 50.7
House* 23.2 21.1 23.4 33.6 38.9 40.3 42.9 38.0 42.9 43.1 45.3 45.8 43.2 41.9 42.6 41.6 45.6 48.0 52.1 45.2 47.6
Additional Types 15.9 16.9 15.5 26.3 27.1 22.9 31.0 34.8 21.0 29.0 27.6 29.7 33.9 33.1 37.3 42.4 35.3 43.2 34.3 29.3 26.8
Cooperatives 6.6 8.3 10.3 14.9 12.8 13.4 18.6 17.1 9.6 12.3 13.8 14.7 14.7 13.3 16.6 17.9 13.0 19.3 12.3 11.6 15.2
Paluwagan 3.3 1.1 0.7 3.8 3.5 1.5 4.3 5.7 3.1 3.6 4.0 4.5 6.5 2.0 7.4 7.1 5.2 9.2 5.8 4.8 3.1
Credit/Loans and Other Associations 6.0 3.5 4.5 6.9 10.3 7.5 6.5 10.9 7.7 12.3 8.6 9.9 8.2 16.8 12.0 13.9 14.1 13.1 14.4 11.4 7.1
Others 0.0 4.0 0.0 0.7 0.5 0.5 1.6 1.1 0.6 0.8 1.2 0.6 4.5 1.0 1.3 3.5 3.0 1.6 1.8 1.5 1.4
Percentage of Households who could set aside Savings in the Current Quarter 37.9 34.7 33.0 34.7 40.4 42.3 35.0 40.8 37.9 38.9 41.2 40.2 45.1 44.4 42.1 42.7 40.6 43.4 37.0 40.0 40.4
Less than P10,000 29.1 24.4 25.8 26.1 32.6 31.1 26.3 30.4 27.1 28.1 32.9 30.6 34.6 34.5 33.2 33.6 31.0 32.4 25.8 30.0 25.9
P10,000-P29,999 49.0 46.2 42.6 44.7 49.9 54.5 45.5 52.9 48.9 49.7 52.0 49.6 57.4 54.8 50.6 51.8 48.1 53.1 45.0 44.1 45.6
P30,000 and over 63.0 64.7 59.4 71.0 61.6 75.7 66.2 72.6 76.0 67.1 69.5 74.2 75.6 69.9 65.6 69.5 68.8 71.8 66.0 65.0 52.2
*kept at home
P10,000-P29,999
Less than 5% 26.5 28.8 41.0 24.0 28.0 31.0 38.3 27.5 23.0 27.0 24.1 25.8 28.1 30.0 30.4 33.3 31.3 35.0 37.2 36.4 35.7
5% to 9% 30.5 36.1 29.1 36.2 33.6 33.0 32.8 35.8 31.1 32.8 29.9 33.3 35.0 31.9 34.8 32.9 33.5 37.0 34.5 33.4 37.5
10% and over 43.0 35.1 29.9 39.9 38.4 36.0 28.8 36.6 45.9 40.2 46.0 41.0 36.9 38.0 34.9 33.7 35.3 27.9 28.3 30.3 26.9
10% to 14% 22.6 21.0 18.6 20.7 25.1 20.0 17.1 21.4 23.5 23.0 25.8 24.3 24.4 23.0 20.1 19.6 21.7 16.0 20.2 20.8 19.2
15% to 19% 4.9 2.9 3.7 4.4 3.8 6.3 3.1 3.1 7.0 6.9 7.3 6.0 2.3 3.5 5.6 3.9 3.9 2.7 2.7 2.4 1.9
20% to 24% 7.9 4.6 3.4 7.0 5.5 6.1 4.7 7.3 7.3 5.5 7.8 5.7 6.5 6.8 4.7 5.9 4.2 4.3 2.9 4.5 3.1
25% and over 7.6 6.6 4.2 7.8 4.0 3.6 3.9 4.8 8.1 4.8 5.1 5.0 3.7 4.7 4.5 4.3 5.5 4.9 2.5 2.6 2.7
Monthly Income Per Capita (in Pesos)* 19,793 20,418 23,669 27,045
Monthly Amortization of Debt Per Capita (in Pesos) 5,338 8,857 5,756 10,249
Debt to Income Ratio (in Pesos) 27.0 43.4 24.3 37.9
Loan Provider
Bank 9.6 10.5 11.4 10.7
Government Institution 8.3 10.0 6.7 8.7
In-house Financing 2.8 3.5 5.6 5.4
Company 3.3 4.7 2.8 4.4
Cooperative 7.0 6.6 6.8 6.4
Lending Company 17.9 21.1 20.2 22.2
Pawnshop 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.2
Individual Money Lender 15.4 15.7 9.8 18.8
Relatives / Friends 22.7 21.4 26.8 20.6
Digital Credit 1.6 2.6 1.8 2.0
Others 11.1 3.6 7.8 0.6
*Starting Q1 2019, monthy income is computed as the total income of respondent and spouse net of any OFW remittances sent to the family.
A quarterly survey conducted by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas
Department of Economic Statististics Manila, Philippines
www.bsp.gov.ph
page 16
Consumer Expectations Survey
Philippines
Q2 2018 - Q1 2019
2018 2019
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1