Particulars Mar 2015 Mar 2016 Mar 2017 Mar 2018

Net Sales 46,087.32 36,706.92 56,913.00 66,234.00

Other Income 466.77 310.19 255.00 213.00
Total Revenue 46,554.090 37,017.110 57,168.000 66,447.000
EXPENDITURE :
Increase/Decrease in Stock -1,666.93 1,061.97 -1,390.00 412.00
Raw Materials Consumed 27,345.60 19,067.94 28,400.00 35,995.00
Power and Fuel cost 3,475.67 3,093.12 4,097.00 4,771.00
Employee Cost 946.83 956.46 1,168.00 1,260.00
Other Manufacturing Expenses 1,127.33 1,102.59 7,113.00 3,612.00
General and Administration Expenses 1,707.63 1,938.94 1,876.00 1,961.00
Selling and Distribution Expenses 4,043.13 3,535.22 4,442.00 4,607.00
Miscellaneous Expenses 399.85 351.54 420.00 601.00
Total Expenditure 37379.11 31107.78 46126.00 53219.00
EBITDA 9,174.98 5,909.33 11,042.00 13,228.00
Depreciation 2,784.50 2,551.45 3,025.00 3,054.00
EBIT 6,390.48 3,357.88 8,017.00 10,174.00
Interest 2,908.69 2,687.34 3,643.00 3,591.00
Exceptional Income / Expenses 0 5,860.45 0 234
PBT 3,481.79 -5,189.91 4,374.00 6,349.00
Provision for Tax/ Tax paid 1,082.44 -1,568.25 1,554.00 2,450.00
Profits After Tax 2,399.35 -3,621.66 2,820.00 3,899.00

Assumptions

Net Sales 46,087.32 36,706.92 56,913.00 66,234.00

YoY -20% 55% 16%
CAGR

Raw Materials Consumed 27,345.60 19,067.94 28,400.00 35,995.00

% of sales 59% 52% 50% 54%
Average

Power and Fuel cost 3,475.67 3,093.12 4,097.00 4,771.00

% of sales 8% 8% 7% 7%
Average

Employee Cost 946.83 956.46 1,168.00 1,260.00

YoY 1% 22% 8%
CAGR
% of sales 2% 3% 2% 2%

Other Manufacturing Expenses 1,127.33 1,102.59 7,113.00 3,612.00

% of sales 2% 3% 12% 5%
Average
 General and Administration Expenses 1,707.63 1,938.94 1,876.00 1,961.00
YoY 14% -3% 5%
CAGR
% of sales 4% 5% 3% 3%

Selling and Distribution Expenses 4,043.13 3,535.22 4,442.00 4,607.00

% of sales 9% 10% 8% 7%

Miscellaneous Expenses 399.85 351.54 420.00 601.00

Always YoY -12% 19% 43%
CAGR

Other Income 466.77 310.19 255.00 213.00

YoY -34% -18% -16%
CAGR
% of sales 1% 1% 0% 0%

Provision for Tax/ Tax paid

Tax rate
1-t
Mar 2019 Mar 20 (Est.) Mar 21 (Est.) Mar 22 (Est.)
76,727.00 87468.78 100589.10 117689.24
519.00 1312.03 1508.84 1765.34
77,246.000 88,780.812 102,097.933 119,454.582

-188.00 -1,947.69 -1,440.31 -1,861.01

39,589.00 46730.01 53739.51 62875.22
7,053.00 6122.81 7041.24 8238.25
1,400.00 1312.03 1508.84 1765.34
159.00 165.36 171.97 178.85
4,096.00 3498.75 4023.56 4707.57
5,028.00 5731.92 6591.708 7712.29836
1,550.00 1751.50 1979.20 2236.49
58687.00 63364.70 73615.71 85853.01
18,559.00 25,416.11 28,482.22 33,601.57
3,397.00 3564.84 4666.78 6966.83
15,162.00 21,851.28 23,815.44 26,634.73
3,708.00 4294.32 4810.85 5010.48
0 0 0 0
11,454.00 17,556.96 19,004.59 21,624.26
3,558.00 5,267.09 5,701.38 6,487.28
7,896.00 12,289.87 13,303.21 15,136.98

76,727.00
16% 14% 15% 17% The CAGR nad YoY is 14 and 16. So the range 1
14%

39,589.00
52%
53% 53% 53% 53% As it is in trend with increase or decrease in sa

7,053.00
9%
8% 7% 7% 7% As it is in trend with increase or decrease in sa

1,400.00
11%
10% 2% 2% 2% Because YoY does not seem logical due to extr
2%

159.00
0.21%
5% 4% 4% 4% Because even power & fuel is taken as % of sa
4,096.00
109%
24% 4% 4% 4% Because YoY is not showing logical trends
5%

5,028.00
7% 7% 7% 7%

1,550.00
158%
15% 13% 13% 13% 4 years CAGR is taken because last year shows

519.00
144%
-23%
1% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5%

5,267.09 5,701.38 6,487.28

30% 30% 30%
70% 70% 70%
d YoY is 14 and 16. So the range 14-16 is taken.

nd with increase or decrease in sales

nd with increase or decrease in sales

does not seem logical due to extreme trends

n power & fuel is taken as % of sales

is not showing logical trends

is taken because last year shows exceptional increase. So it is excluded

 Particulars Mar 2015 Mar 2016 Mar 2017 Mar 2018 Mar 2019
Share Capital 1,067.19 1,067.19 301 302.00 301.00
Total Reserve 24,657.41 20,685.77 23,797.00 27,605.00 34,861.00
Secured Loans 7,574.37 8,251.05 18,470.00 16,610.00 10,516.00
Unsecured Loans 6,617.96 7,867.46 9,888.00 12,941.00 16,232.00
Current Liabilities
Sundry Creditors 12,515.39 10,997.66 11,604.00 13,988.00 13,052.00
Unearned revenue 264.34 2069.9 6,280.00 3,995.00 4,083.00
Other Liabilities 7,278.11 8,414.42 8,112.00 7,111.00 17,211.00
Provisions 353.6 251.78 132.00 111.00 52.00
Total Current Liabilities 20,411.44 21,733.76 26,128.00 25,205.00 34,398.00
Other Long-Term Liabilities 11,597.44 10,936.52 1,046.00 817.00 5,324.00
Deferred Tax Assets / Liabilities 2,966.59 1,224.69 1,329.00 2,071.00 3,270.00
Total Liabilities 74,892.40 71,766.44 80,959.00 85,551.00 104,902.00
Fixed Assets 53,792.00 59,959.39 55,944.00 58,210.00 61,086.00
Less: Accumulated Depreciation 15,222.61 17,922.65 5,729.00 8,707.00 11,841.00
Net Block 38,569.39 42,036.74 50,215.00 49,503.00 49,245.00
Investments 17,299.05 16,030.90 12,946.00 16,795.00 27,648.00
Current Assets
Inventories 8,584.74 6,775.50 9,270.00 10,082.00 10,599
Sundry Debtors 2,026.83 2,510.71 3,948.00 4,692.00 6,746.00
Cash and Bank 1,795.06 596.31 601.00 1,027.00 5,680.00
Other Current Assets 79.92 550.45 3,858.00 3,294.00 4,848.00
Loans and Advances 6,537.41 3,265.83 121.00 158.00 136.00
Total Current Assets 19,023.96 13,698.80 17,798.00 19,253.00 28,009.00
Total Assets 74,892.40 71,766.44 80,959.00 85,551.00 104,902.00

Assumptions

Secured Loans 7,574.37 8,251.05 18,470.00 16,610.00 10,516.00

YoY 9% 124% -10% -37%
CAGR -8%

Unsecured Loans 6,617.96 7,867.46 9,888.00 12,941.00 16,232.00

YoY 19% 26% 31% 25%

Sundry Creditors 12,515.39 10,997.66 11,604.00 13,988.00 13,052.00

Creditors Payble Period (Days) 167 211 149 142 120
Average 158

Unearned revenue 264.34 2069.9 6,280.00 3,995.00 4,083.00

% of sales 1% 6% 11% 6% 5%
Other Liabilities 7,278.11 8,414.42 8,112.00 7,111.00 17,211.00
YoY 16% -4% -12% 142%
CAGR 24%
% of sales 16% 23% 14% 11% 22%

Provisions 353.6 251.78 132.00 111.00 52.00

% of sales 0.77% 0.69% 0.23% 0.17% 0.07%

Other Long-Term Liabilities 11,597.44 10,936.52 1,046.00 817.00 5,324.00

YoY -6% -90% -22% 552%
CAGR -18%
% of sales 25% 30% 2% 1% 7%

Deferred Tax Assets / Liabilities 2,966.59 1,224.69 1,329.00 2,071.00 3,270.00

YoY -59% 9% 56% 58%

Fixed Assets 53,792.00 59,959.39 55,944.00 58,210.00 61,086.00

YoY 11% -7% 4% 5%

Fixed Assets 53,792.00 59,959.39 55,944.00 58,210.00 61,086.00

Depreciation 2,784.50 2,551.45 3,025.00 3,054.00 3,397.00
% Depreciation 5% 4% 5% 5% 6%

Investments 17,299.05 16,030.90 12,946.00 16,795.00 27,648.00

YoY -7% -19% 30% 65%

Inventories 8,584.74 6,775.50 9,270.00 10,082.00 10,599

Inventory holding period (Dyas) 122 123 125 101 98

Increase/Decrease in Stock -1,666.93 1,061.97 -1,390.00 412.00 -188.00

Raw Materials Consumed 27,345.60 19,067.94 28,400.00 35,995.00 39,589.00
COGS 25,678.67 20,129.91 27,010.00 36,407.00 39,401.00

Sundry Debtors 2,026.83 2,510.71 3,948.00 4,692.00 6,746.00

Debtors collection period (Days) 16 25 25 26 32

Cash and Bank 1,795.06 596.31 601.00 1,027.00 5,680.00

YoY -67% 1% 71% 453%
CAGR 33%

Other Current Assets 79.92 550.45 3,858.00 3,294.00 4,848.00

YoY 589% 601% -15% 47%

Loans and Advances 6,537.41 3,265.83 121.00 158.00 136.00

YoY -50% -96% 31% -14%
CAGR -62%
Secured Loans 7,574.37 8,251.05 18,470.00 16,610.00 10,516.00
Unsecured Loans 6,617.96 7,867.46 9,888.00 12,941.00 16,232.00
Total Loans 14,192.33 16,118.51 28,358.00 29,551.00 26,748.00
Interest 2,908.69 2,687.34 3,643.00 3,591.00 3,708.00
% of interest 20% 17% 13% 12% 14%
Mar 20 (Est.) Mar 21 (Est.) Mar 22 (Est.)
301.00 301.00 301.00
34,861.00 34,861.00 34,861.00
10200.52 9996.51 9896.54
20776.96 27010.05 35653.26

21508.61 25029.36 30145.66

6122.81 8047.13 10592.03
22030.08 28639.10 37803.62
349.88 553.24 823.82
50011.38 62268.83 79365.13
4525.40 3982.35 3544.29
5232.00 8475.84 13900.38
125,908.26 146,895.58 177,521.61
64104.10 66668.26 69668.33
15,405.84 20,072.61 27,039.45
48698.26 46595.64 42628.88
45514.25 74643.38 121668.71

12546.69 13987.00 15848.00

7668.50 8267.60 9028.22
17382.25 19815.84 15394.74
7135.13 10501.24 15455.38
51.65 19.62 7.45
44784.21 52591.29 55733.79
138996.73 173830.31 220031.38 13,088.47 26,934.73 42,509.77

-3% -2% -1%

28% 30% 32%

168 170 175

7.0% 8.0% 9.0%

 28% 30% 32%

0.40% 0.55% 0.70%

-15% -12% -11%

60% 62% 64%

5% 4% 4.5%

6% 7% 10%

65% 64% 63%

98 95 92

46730.01 53739.51 62875.22

32 30 28

33% 30% 28%

47% 47% 47%

-62% -62% -62%

10200.52 9996.51 9896.54
20776.96 27010.05 35653.26
30,977.48 37,006.56 45,549.81

14% 13% 11%

Particulars Mar 20 (Est.) Mar 21 (Est.) Mar 22 (Est.)
PAT 12,289.87 13,303.21 15,136.98
Add: Depreciation 3564.84 4666.78 6966.83
Operating profit before adjusting WC
items 15,854.71 17,969.99 22,103.81
Changes in WC
Inventories -1,948 -1,440 -1,861
Sundry Debtors -922.50 -599.10 -760.62
Other Current Assets -2,287.13 -3,366.12 -4,954.14
Loans and Advances 84.35 32.03 12.17
Sundry Creditors 8,456.61 3,520.75 5,116.30
Unearned revenue 2,039.81 1,924.31 2,544.90
Other Liabilities 4,819.08 6,609.02 9,164.51
Provisions 297.88 203.36 270.58
Deferred Tax Assets / Liabilities 1,962.00 3,243.84 5,424.54
Cash inflow from Operating Activity 28357.12 28097.80 37061.05
Investing Activity
Fixed Assets -3,018.10 -2,564.16 -3,000.07
Investments -17,866.25 -29,129.12 -47,025.33
Cash outflow from Investing Activity -20884.35 -31693.29 -50025.40
Financing Activity
Secured Loans -315.48 -204.01 -99.97
Unsecured Loans 4,544.96 6,233.09 8,643.22
Cash inflow from Financing Activity 4229.48 6029.08 8543.25
Cash flow during the year 11,702.25 2,433.59 -4,421.10
Opening cash balance 5,680.00 17,382.25 19,815.84
Closing cash balance 17382.25 19815.84 15394.74
Particulars Mar-19 Mar 20 (Est.) Mar 21 (Est.) Mar 22 (Est.)
Year 1 2 3
PAT 12,289.87 13,303.21 15,136.98
Add: Depreciation 3564.84 4666.78 6966.83
Add: Interest (1-t) 3006.02 3367.60 3507.34
Less: Capex -3,018.10 -2,564.16 -3,000.07
Add/Less: Changes in WC 0.00 0.00 0.00
FCFF 21,878.83 23,901.75 28,611.22
* DF @ Ko (WACC) 0.887 0.787 0.699
Value of the firm for explicit period 19,415.44 18,822.45 19,994.30

Continuing value
Value of the firm for explicit
period/Value of firm beyond
continuing period
Value of firm
Value of debt
Value of equity
No. of equity shares
Target Market Price (TMP)
Current Market Price (CMP)

Calculation of WACC
Cost of Debt (Kd/Ki) 9.70%

Cost of Equity 14.96%

Rf 6.52%
Beta 0.995
Rm 15%

Weight of Debt (Wd) 43.20%

Weight of Equity (We) 56.80%

Debt 26,748.00
Equity 35,162.00
Total 61,910.00

WACC (Cost of Capital - Ko) 12.69%

Terminal Growth Rate 9%

 58232.19

845668.94

590976.43
649208.62
26,748.00
622,460.62
301.00
2067.98
223.2
Particulars Mar 20 (Est.) Mar 21 (Est.) Mar 22 (Est.)
Current Assets 44784.21 52591.29 55733.79
Current Liabilities 50011.38 62268.83 79365.13
WC Requirement -5227.16 -9677.54 -23631.34
WC Released -5227.16 -9677.54
Changes in WC -5227.16 -4450.38 -13953.80