University of Wollongong

Research Online
Faculty of Engineering and Information Sciences -
Faculty of Engineering and Information Sciences
Papers: Part A

2014

TransMob: an agent based simulation of transport

demand and residential mobility in South East
Sydney
Pascal Perez
University of Wollongong, pascal@uow.edu.au

Nam N. Huynh
University of Wollongong, nhuynh@uow.edu.au

Vu Lam Cao
University of Wollongong, vlcao@uow.edu.au

Rohan Wickramasuriya
University of Wollongong, rohan@uow.edu.au

Matthew J. Berryman
University of Wollongong, mberryma@uow.edu.au

Publication Details
Perez, P., Huynh, N., Cao, V., Wickramasuriya, R. & Berryman, M. J. (2014). TransMob: an agent based simulation of transport
demand and residential mobility in South East Sydney. Social Simulation Conference (pp. 1-7). Barcelona:

Research Online is the open access institutional repository for the University of Wollongong. For further information contact the UOW Library:
research-pubs@uow.edu.au
TransMob: an agent based simulation of transport demand and residential
mobility in South East Sydney
Abstract
This paper presents an agent-based simulation, called TransMob, of transport demand and residential mobility
in South East Sydney, Australia. In this model, each agent represents an individual resident of the study area.
Each agent is given an initial travel diary. Agents are grouped in various types of household which generate
social interdependencies and additional constrains on travel diaries. This initial synthetic population is then
allowed to evolve for 20 years, driven by natural growth parameters, social bonding and migration rates. A
micro-simulation component calculates daily traffic conditions and individual travel times, allowing for multi-
modal journeys. The transport mode choice component uses a multinomial logit model for individual
decisions based on various fixed and variable costs as well as socio-economic characteristics. Residential
mobility is simulated through a two-step process: first, deciding to move out; then, selecting a destination for
relocation. The first step uses a multinomial logit model, while the second one uses a semi-empirical perceived
liveability model to inform individual decisions.

Keywords
east, demand, simulation, agent, sydney, transport, residential, transmob, mobility, south

Disciplines
Engineering | Science and Technology Studies

Publication Details
Perez, P., Huynh, N., Cao, V., Wickramasuriya, R. & Berryman, M. J. (2014). TransMob: an agent based
simulation of transport demand and residential mobility in South East Sydney. Social Simulation Conference
(pp. 1-7). Barcelona:

This conference paper is available at Research Online: http://ro.uow.edu.au/eispapers/4044

 TransMob: An Agent Based Simulation of Transport Demand and
Residential Mobility in South East Sydney

Pascal Perez, Nam Huynh, Vu Lam Cao, Rohan Wickramasuriya, Matthew Berryman
SMART Infrastructure Facility, Fac. of Engineering & Information Sciences, University of Wollongong NSW, Australia

Email: pascal@uow.edu.au, nhuynh@uow.edu.au, vlcao@uow.edu.au, rohan@uow.edu.au, mberryma@uow.edu.au


(i) Zurich city in Switzerland with 170 municipalities and 12
Abstract— This paper presents an agent-based simulation, districts and (ii) Brandenburg city in Germany with 1008
called TransMob, of transport demand and residential mobility traffic analysis zones. Many other agent based models for
in South East Sydney, Australia. In this model, each agent transport and urban planning can be found in the literature
represents an individual resident of the study area. Each agent
with different geographical scales and at various levels of
is given an initial travel diary. Agents are grouped in various
types of household which generate social interdependencies and complexity of agent’s behaviours and autonomy [4-13]. They
additional constrains on travel diaries. This initial synthetic proved that with a large real world scenario, agent based
population is then allowed to evolve for 20 years, driven by modelling, while being able to reproduce the complexity of
natural growth parameters, social bonding and migration rates. an urban area and predict emergent behaviours in the area,
A micro-simulation component calculates daily traffic has no issue with the performance [11]. They also show that
conditions and individual travel times, allowing for multi-modal for traffic and transport simulation purposes, agent based
journeys. The transport mode choice component uses a
modelling has been considered as a reliable and well worth
multinomial logit model for individual decisions based on
various fixed and variable costs as well as socio-economic developing tool that planners can employ to build and
characteristics. Residential mobility is simulated through a evaluate alternative scenarios of an urban area.
two-step process: first, deciding to move out; then, selecting a Many models that have been reported in the literature
destination for relocation. The first step uses a multinomial logit however are unable to explicitly simulate the dynamic
model, while the second one uses a semi-empirical perceived interactions between the population growth, the
liveability model to inform individual decisions. transport/traffic demands, urban mobility (i.e. household
relocations), and the resulting changes in how the population
I.INTRODUCTION
perceive the liveability of an urban area. The agent based
T HE ability to realistically predict the demand of transport
and traffic on the road network is of critical importance
model presented in this paper represents a heterogeneous
population in terms of demographic characteristics,
to efficient urban transport planning. Agent based models of environmental perception, and decision making behaviour.
urban planning have been increasingly introduced over the Inherently, the simulated population will evolve over time
last decades. Miller et al. [1] developed model ILUTE facilitating the interactions between dynamics of urban
(Integrated Land Use, Transportation, Environment) to mobility (i.e. relocation of the population), transportation
simulate the evolution of the whole Toronto region in behaviours and population growth. Individuals are
Canada with approximately 2 million households and 5 represented in this model as autonomous decision makers
million people over an extended period of time. Besides that make decisions that affect their environment (i.e. travel
giving useful information to analyse a wide range of transport mode choice and relocation choice) as well as are required to
and other urban policies, ILUTE also explicitly models travel make decisions in reaction to changes in their environment
demand as an outcome of the integration between individual (e.g. family situation, employment).
and household decisions based on activities that they With respect to transportation, each individual has a travel
commence during a day. Raney et al. [2] presented a multi- diary which comprises a sequence of trips the person makes
agent traffic simulation for all of Switzerland with a in a representative day as well as trip attributes such as travel
population of around 7 million people. Balmer et al. [3] mode, trip purpose, and departure time. Individuals in the
demonstrated the flexibility of agent based modelling by model are associated with each other by their household
successfully developing an agent based model that relationship, which helps define the interdependencies of their
satisfactorily simulate the traffic demands of two scenarios: travel diary and constrains their mode choice. This feature,
together with the interactions between urban mobility,

transportation behaviours, and population growth, allows the
This work was not supported by any organization
model to not only realistically reproduce how the current B. Residential Location Choice
population uses existing transport infrastructure but more Household relocation modelling is an integral part of both
accurately predict future transport demands. The router of the residential and transport planning processes as household
the traffic micro-simulation package TRANSIMS is locations determine demand for community facilities and
incorporated in the agent based model to inform the actual services, including transport network demands. The approach
travel time of each trip (which agents use in considering new used to model residential location choice includes two
travel modes) and changes of traffic density on the road distinct processes: the decision to relocate, and the process of
network. finding a new dwelling. A multinomial logit model was used
Major components that constitute the agent based model to represent the process by which households make decision
in this study are (i) synthetic population, (ii) residential to relocate. The attributes of this model are change in
relocation choice, (iii) perceived liveability, (iv) travel diaries, household income, change of household configuration (e.g.
(v) traffic micro-simulation, and (vi) transport mode choice. having a newborn, divorced couples, newly wed couples),
These components equip the model with unique features that and the tenure of the household. The HILDA data was used
allows it to be used as a comprehensive tool for assisting to regress the coefficients associated to each of these
integrated travel – land use planning. These components are attributes needed in the binomial logit model. Further details
briefly described in Section 2 in order to provide a full on the development of the model for triggering household
picture of the model features and capabilities. The focus of relocation can be found in [16].
this paper however will be in reporting the simulation results Once a household is selected for relocation, the second
in regards to road traffic and transport demands (Section 3). decision determines where the household will relocate and
The paper closes with discussions on further developments of whether they will be renting or buying a dwelling in the target
the model. location, if a suitable a dwelling is found. This process of
finding a new dwelling is modelled as a constraint satisfaction
II. MODEL COMPONENTS process, whereby each household will attempt to find a
suitable dwelling based on three factors, affordability,
This section provides an overview of the six components
availability, and satisfaction.
that constitute the agent based model in this study. Details
on the model architecture and integration of these C. Perceived Liveability
components are given in [14]. A significant departure of the current model to other
A. Synthetic Population existing approaches is the assumption that residential location
choice is based not only on availability and affordability
The purpose of the synthetic population is to create a valid
principles but also on the perception that individuals have of
computational representation of the population in the study
the quality of their living environment. The perceived
area that matches the distribution of individuals and
liveability component uses a semi-empirical model to estimate
household as per the demographics from census data. The
individual levels of attraction to and satisfaction with specific
construction of the synthetic population involves the creation
locations. The semi-empirical model is a statistical weighted
of a proto-population calibrated on socio-demographic
linear model calibrated on a computer assisted telephone
information provided by the Australian census data (full
interviewing (CATI) survey data collected in the study area.
enumeration). Different to the majority of existing algorithms
Further details of this semi-empirical model can be found in
for constructing a synthetic population, the algorithm used in
[17, 18].
this study uses only aggregated data of demographic
distributions as inputs, i.e. no disaggregated records of D. Travel Diaries
individuals or households (e.g. a survey) are required. The Each individual in the synthetic population is assigned with
resulting synthetic population is made of individuals a travel diary which comprises a sequence of trips the person
belonging to specific households and associated with each makes in a representative day as well as trip attributes such as
other by household relationship. travel mode, trip purpose, departure time, origin and
This initial population is evolved according to annual destination. Because these details of travel behaviours of the
increments during the simulation period. Each individual and population are not completely available in any single source
household is susceptible to various demographic (e.g. aging, of data (for confidentiality reasons), the process of assigning
coupling, divorcing, reproducing of individuals) and travel diaries to individuals comprises two steps. The first
economic changes controlled by conditional probabilities. step assigns a trip sequence each individual makes in a
The consequent changes in the structure of households as a representative day using the Household Travel Survey data.
result of these processes are also captured. Further details of Details of each trip in this trip sequence include trip purpose,
the algorithms for the construction and evolution of the travel mode, and departure time. The second step assigns
synthetic population used in this study can be found in [15]. locations to the origin and destination of each trip in the trip
sequence.
 Assigning trip sequences to agents constraints are applied to correct the assigned activity type.
The Household Travel Survey (HTS) data was used to For example, activity types associated with trip purpose
assign trip sequences to individuals in the synthetic “Education” are “Child_care_centre”, “Kindergarten”,
population. This data is the largest and most comprehensive “Education_primary”,“Education_school”,“Education_univer
source of information on individual patterns for the Sydney sity”. Selecting the type of destination depends on the age of
Greater Metropolitan Area. The data is collected through the individual making that trip.
face to face interviews with approximately 3000-3500
households each year. Details recorded include information
of each trip (e.g. departure time, travel time, travel mode,
purpose) as well as socio demographic attributes of the
interviewed household.
The assignment of trip sequences to the synthetic
population comprises two steps. The first step
deterministically searches in HTS data for households that
best match the household type, the number of children under
15 years old, and the number of adults of a synthetic
population household. This deterministic search gradually
relaxes the constraints on exact matching conditions so that
the search always returns at least one HTS household. The
second step randomly selects a HTS household from the list
of households identified in stage 1 and assigns travel diary of
individuals in the HTS household to those in the synthetic
population household. The random selection follows a
uniform distribution. Further details of the algorithms for the
assignment of trip sequences to the synthetic population can
be found in [19].
Assigning locations to trip origins and destinations
Once the trip sequences for all the households in the
synthetic population are assigned then the following Figure 1: Flow chart of the assignment of activity types to
procedure is carried out to assign activity locations to each origin and destination of a trip.
trip in a sequence. This procedure had to be followed
because the HTS data used for this study did not contain A flow chart for the assignment of coordinates to trip
activity locations to ensure the confidentiality of the data and origin and destination is shown in Figure 2. The algorithm
so alternative arrangements needed to be made to ensure that described in this flow chart applies to all trips of everybody in
each agent was assigned a location of where to go for a the population. Travel destinations are assigned to account
particular activity type either inside or outside the study area. for the constraints of people in the same household travelling
In the case of activity locations outside of the study area, together, e.g. destination of a trip of an adult who takes a
main entry and exit points which acted as the child to school is similar to the destination of a child. The
origin/destination of trips coming into or going out of the Journey To Work data is used to assign work locations to
study area. These main entry/exit points are located near work trips. This dataset provides the distribution of trip
where main entry/exit roads pass the boundary of the study counts to/from a travel zone from/to another travel zone by
area. each travel mode. For non-work trips (e.g. social and
Attributes of activity locations in the study area that are recreational trips), the location of trip destinations is assigned
available to this study include the geolocations (i.e. on a random basis.
coordinates) and the type of the locations. In order to assign
specific coordinates to origin and/or destination of a trip, an
activity type must first be determined based on the trip
purpose. Based on location type and trip mode, a set of
coordinates associated with this location type is assigned to
the destination. Details of these two processes are given
below.
A flow chart of the assignment of activity types to origin
and destination of a trip is shown in Figure 1. The algorithm
described in this flow chart applies to all trips of everybody in
the population. Depending on the trip purpose, further
 Figure 3: Travel diaries assignment for successive years.
E. Traffic Micro-Simulation
TRANSIMS was chosen as the traffic micro-simulator as,
in its current iteration, it is a clean, efficient, C++-based
(including good use of STL) platform that supports an
individual (person and vehicle) level of modelling, and
supports detailed micro-simulation of traffic to support the
requirements of our software, including but not limited to:
Figure 2: Flow chart of the assignment of activity locations • road-by-road and minute-by-minute analysis of traffic
to origin and destination of a trip. patterns; and
• details of what individuals are going where on public
After each individual has been assigned with a travel diary transport, and analysis of usage.
and specific locations for their trips, corrections to their Normally one would use a process analogous to simulated
travel diary may be required to ensure that (i) any children annealing to arrive at the solution; running the router to
under 15 years old always travel (i.e. have the same modes) establish initial routes, then finding when vehicles jam, and
with an adult in the household, and (ii) any two individuals either redirecting them off the street temporarily into a park
who depart and arrive at the same time for the same trip (if the numbers are sufficiently low) or by then re-routing
purpose will have the same travel mode and destination. them using the router and then running the simulation until
Corrections may also be required to the trip modes of an numbers jammed are sufficiently low. Given the typical travel
individual who drives in some trips of his/her travel diary to volumes (around 100,000 commuters), and our desire to
ensure that a car is used throughout these trips. These simulate a 20-year period, we are forced to run only one
corrections are particularly needed after individuals make typical weekday and weekend in simulation per year, and run
their travel mode choice (see Section 2.6) during the only one iteration of the router. We have compared this with
simulation. This is because the travel mode choice model in test runs of multiple iterations of router and the core micro-
itself does not have the visibility of the constraints of co- simulator of vehicle movements, and found that travel times
travelling of individuals in a household nor the connection of are within 5%; this we consider sufficient for our purposes..
trips in an individual’s travel diary.
Updating travel diaries during the simulation F. Transport Mode Choice
Sections 2.4.1 and 2.4.2 describe the assigning of initial The purpose of the travel mode choice algorithm was to
travel diaries to the synthetic population. Due to changes in accurately describe the decision-making processes of
the synthetic household attributes (e.g. household type, individuals travelling on the transport network in the study
number of children under 15, etc) as the population evolves, area, thus enabling the prediction of the choice of travel
travel diaries may need to be reassigned in subsequent modes of individuals in the population. Travel modes
simulation steps to these households in the model. Figure 3 considered in this study are car driver, car passenger, public
shows the process that is used to reassign/update travel transport, taxi, bicycle, walk, and other.
diaries in households whose attributes are different the A multinomial logit (MNL) model was developed for this
previous simulation step. purpose. At the heart of the MNL formulation is a linear
part-worth utility function that calculates the utility of each
alternative travel mode choice. Independent variables for this
function include the difference of fixed cost and difference of
variable cost of the selected travel mode with the cheapest
mode. The variable cost is dependent on the estimated travel
time, which is the output of the traffic micro-simulation.
Another independent variable is the individual’s income,
acting as a proxy for the individual’s perception of value of
time. Multinomial logit regression was used on the HTS data
to estimate the utility coefficients vector for the possible
travel modes..
.
III. TRAFFIC SIMULATION RESULTS Figure 5: Percentage of trips by purposes from simulation
The agent based model described in Section is applied to years 2006 and 2011 versus 2006-2011 HTS data.
simulate the dynamic interactions between population
growth, urban relocation choice and transport demands for
Randwick - Green Square, a metropolitan area in south east
of Sydney, Australia. This area has a population of
approximately 110000 individuals in around 52000
households that live in private dwellings.
The simulation period is from 2006 to 2011. The initial
synthetic population is constructed using the 2006 census
data that is available from the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
This initial synthetic population was validated that it matches
the demographics of the real population at both individual Figure 6: Percentage of population by number of daily
level and household level, and thus is a realistic trips for simulation years 2006 and 2011 versus 2006-2011
computational representation of the real population in the HTS data.
area [15]. It was also shown that the synthetic population in Trip counts by purposes over 24 hours of a representative
year 2011 (i.e. after 5 simulation years) matches the
day in year 2011 are shown in Figure 7. In this figure, trips
demographics of the population in the study area as described
go to work and go to school both peak at 8.00am to 9.00am.
in the 2011 census data. This affirmed that the algorithm to
Counts of trips go to work however are higher than trips to
evolve the population while simulating the evolution at
school at earlier hours (6.00am to 8.00am) which reflects
individual level can capture the dynamics of household
early workers. Trips to work also have a smaller peak
structures in the population.
between 1.00pm and 2.00pm to reflect trips by people doing
Figures 4 and 5 respectively show the percentage of trips
afternoon and/or night shifts. Trips for shopping, social
by each mode and each purpose with respect to the total
activities, recreational and personal services (i.e. ‘visit’) reach
number of trips made by the whole population for year 2006
their peak at around 9.00am to 12.00pm and gradually drop
(initial year) and simulation year 2011. Figure 6 compares the
in the afternoon. These observations affirm that the model
percentage of individuals in the synthetic population against
can realistically reproduce and predict well the patterns of
that in the HTS data by the number of trips made daily. The
travel demand of the population in the study area.
distributions in these graphs are in very good agreement with
the HTS data for the whole Sydney Greater Metropolitan
Area.

Figure 4: Percentage of trips by modes from simulation Figure 7: Trip counts by purposes over 24 hours of a
years 2006 and 2011 versus 2006-2011 HTS data. representative day in year 2011.
 Traffic density (that was outputted from TRANSIMS Such agreement however does not occur on all parts of the
router) at two major intersections along Anzac Parade, the road network. This could be attributed to the randomness in
main road in the study area, in the morning peak hour the assignment of activity locations to origin and destination
(8.00am to 9.00am) compared against their congestion of trips in the travel diaries of the population (see Figure 2).
profiles from Google Maps [20] are shown in Figures 8. The While the assignment of destination locations of trips related
model is able to correctly predict that northbound traffic to work is constrained by the Journey To Work data, the
density is relatively higher on the part of Anzac Parade north randomness in assigning destination locations to trips of
of the intersection with Rainbow Street. However, the other purposes does not guarantee a realistic representation
southbound traffic on Anzac Parade is relatively less of traffic profiles in the model. Note that non-work trips have
congested compared to the northbound. These results are in a significant proportion in the total number of trips made by
agreement with observed traffic profiles on Google Maps. the population in the study area (see Figures 5 and 7).

IV. CONCLUSIONS

This paper has presented an agent based model for the

simulation of transport demands and land use for an urban
area in south east Sydney, Australia. Being comprised of six
major components (synthetic population, residential location
choice, perceived liveability, travel diary assignment, traffic
micro-simulator, and transport mode choice) the model is
able to capture the decision making of the population with
respect to relocation and transport, and thus is able to
explicitly simulate the dynamic interactions between
population growth, transport demands, and urban land use.
Simulated Northbound Traffic
This is a unique feature that has not been found in many
other agent based models for urban transport and urban
planning.
Various aspects of the simulation results on transport
demands of the study area were presented, particularly the
percentage of trips by each mode and each purpose with
respect to the total number of trips made by the whole
population, percentage of population by number of daily trips
and the distribution of trips by each purpose over 24 hours of
a typical day. Being in good agreement with the
corresponding survey data, these results affirm that the
model’s capability to realistically reproduce and predict travel
demand of an urban area. This is because individuals in the
Simulated Southbound Traffic model are associated with each other by their household
northbound southbound relationship, which helps define the interdependencies of their
travel diary and constrains their mode choice.
Traffic density (from TRANSIMS router) at various
locations along the main road in the study area also matches
with the observations of traffic congestion on the same road
from Google Maps. Mismatches however occur on other
(smaller) roads in the study area. This could be attributed to
two factors. The first is the lack of a survey data on the
origin and destination of non-work trips. The randomness in
assigning a location to the destinations of these trips
obviously cannot guarantee a realistic representation of
traffic demands in the simulation model. The second factor is
Observed Congestion Profile (Google Maps) the limited ability of the TRANSIMS router to realistically
Figure 8: Traffic density on Anzac Parade near the reproduce the reasoning of a person in choosing a possible
intersection with Rainbow street (morning peak). route for the trips the person makes, including dynamic
routing to avoid heavy traffic in real time.
 ACKNOWLEDGMENT of agent-based modeling of transportation in Sydney.20th International
Congress on Modelling and Simulation (MODSIM 2013) (pp. 1357-
This research was commissioned by Transport for NSW in 1363). Australia: The Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia
2011 and completed in 2013. We would like to thank Prof. and New Zealand.
Chris Barrett, Prof. Kay Axhausen and Dr. Charles Macal for [16] [16] Namazi Rad, M., Shukla, N., Munoz Aneiros, A., Mokhtarian
Dehkordi, P. & Ma, J. (2013). A probabilistic predictive model for
their invaluable support and advice during this project. residual mobility in Australia. International Symposium for Next
Generation Infrastructure (ISNGI 2013) (pp. 1-6). Wollongong:
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