A London Councils Member briefing May 2013

London’s Population
Following the Census 2011 there have been a significant number of data and
information releases enabling a detailed picture to emerge of London’s population
and demography. This briefing summarises the wealth of available information
providing the latest snapshot of London.

Overview
London’s population grew by more than one million people between the censuses in 2001 and
2011 and is projected to increase again to nine million by 2021, and almost 10 million by 2031.

London continues to be a young, dynamic, mobile, diverse and unique city within the UK, and
is set to see particular population rises in its very young and working age population. These
demographic pressures will mean increases in demand for public services, particularly within
housing and education provision.

Scale of change
London’s population saw the largest growth of any region between the censuses in 2001 and
2011. It grew by 14 per cent, or just over 1 million, to more than 8 million usual residents.
This growth accounted for 26 per cent of the total national population growth.

In comparison, if London had grown at the same rate as the national average between
censuses, the capital would have 440,000 fewer residents than it actually had in 2011 – this is
the equivalent of two boroughs the size of Camden.

According to the 2011 Census results:

• London’s pre-school population grew by 113,000 (24 per cent). 11 boroughs experi-
enced more than 30 per cent growth in their pre-school populations between censuses.
• London saw its school-age population increase by 107,000 (8 per cent) with three
boroughs seeing growth in excess of 15 per cent.
• London’s working-age population grew by 768,000 (17 per cent), with three bor-
oughs seeing growth rates above 30 per cent (Tower Hamlets, Newham and Hackney).

All of these were above the national growth rates. This growth has led to considerable pressures
on the need for housing, education and early years’ provision in the capital over the decade.
London’s population aged 65 and over grew at a relatively slower pace and rose by 13,000 (1
per cent). However, this age cohort is set for considerable growth in the next decade, when it “
Over the
is projected to grow by 21 per cent. next decade,
London’s
Over the course of the next decade, London’s population is projected to increase by around population is
one million, at similar growth levels to that experienced previously. Within this, its school- projected to
age population is set for growth at a rate one-and-a-half times greater than was previously increase by
experienced between censuses, which will continue to put pressure on the need for sufficient around one
school places. million and,
within this,
its school age
The graphic demonstrates London’s relatively younger population to the national picture: population is
set for growth
at a rate one
% share of London's % share of England's and a half times
population by age greater than“
population by age previously
group, 2011 group, 2011
0-4 0-4
6% 5 ‒ 19
11% 7% 5 ‒ 19 16%
18% 20 ‒ 64
17% 20 ‒ 64
65+
65+

64% 60%

Short-Term Residency
Information on short-term non-UK residents
Non-UK STRs per was also captured this time round in the census.
10,000 usual London had approximately 70,000 short-term
residents (STRs) on Census day, which was 37
residents per cent of the national total and around 1 per
cent of its usual resident population.
84
In London, this translates into 84 STRs per
10,000 usual residents, compared to the ratio
35
of 35 STRs per 10,000 in England and Wales. The
majority of these residents were concentrated
in inner London boroughs with eight boroughs
accounting for 50 per cent of the London total1.
The data represents the snapshot of what was
London England captured on Census day, but this population
group by its nature is continually changing in
its make-up.

Families and households

Compared to all other English regions and Wales, London is distinct. It has the highest propor-
tion of its adult population single or in a civil partnership. It also has the highest proportion
of lone parent households with dependent children and families with at least one dependent
child. It also had the lowest proportion of older people living alone and conversely the high-
est for people living alone under 65.

Average household size increased in London, from 2.35 persons in 2001 to 2.47 in 20112. In
contrast the average for England and Wales (excluding London) fell from 2.36 to 2.34 persons.

1
Westminster, Camden, Tower Hamlets, Newham, Kensington and Chelsea, Southwark, Islington, Ealing
2
GLA Intelligence Update 13-2012
Within London, all boroughs bar one experienced growth in this measure (the other a neg-
ligible -0.1 decline). Census 2011 suggests that London is the most overcrowded region for
households in England and Wales. “
Census 2011
suggests
In terms of housing tenure, the biggest change has been growth in the share of its private that London
rented sector and a decline in owner-occupiers. is the most
overcrowded
The table below shows the relative shares for London and the national picture from Census 2011: region in
England and
Housing Tenure
Wales “
70%

60%

50%

40%
London
30%
England
20%

10%

0%
Owner occupier Social rented Private rented

Issues with the Census

While the Census is undoubtedly a rich source of demographic information, there are
continued concerns that it is inadequate in capturing London’s population accurately. There
are two main areas of concern:

1. Response rates to the Census continue to be lower in London than the national aver-
age. Although rates are improved from those achieved in 2001, the majority of London
boroughs still experienced some of the lowest response rates nationally.

2. The new mid-year population estimate for London using Census 2011 data is signifi-
cantly higher than the equivalent estimate using the previous census data. This sug-
gests an under-count during the previous decade and potential lost funding to London
local government.

Future demographic pressures

The GLA has recently released two sets of projections incorporating data from the latest Cen-
sus. The following table shows that the biggest rise in population in London is projected to
be in the 65+ age group. Within this group, growth in those aged 90+ is projected to see the
greatest rise of all with a threefold increase by 2031. Increases in the older age group are due
to falling mortality rates and rising life expectancy.

2001-11 2011-21 2021-31 2031-41

Population at end of
period (000s) 8,204 9,221 9,953 10,541

Cumulative increase
1,017 1,748 2,337
from 2011
% change - cumulate
12% 21% 28%
from 2011
Age (% change):
0-4 - 8% -2% 4%
5-19 - 12% 8% -1%
20-64 - 11% 6% 5%
65+ - 21% 27% 18%
Births in London are predicted to continue to rise through to 2016 and to remain above 2011
levels for the duration of the projection period to 2041. Deaths are predicted to increase slightly,
despite declining mortality rates, due to the increasing numbers of older people in the popula-
tion. The GLA projections also suggest that population mobility is set to increase over time, by
12 per cent to 2031 and 17 per cent to 20413, with it holding roughly constant as a proportion
of the projected population over time.

Beyond 2011
For the next potential census exercise in 2021, it is highly unlikely that it will take place in the
same shape and form as previous processes. The Beyond 2011 project is looking at options to
modernise or replace it, including the greater use of electronic surveys and the potential use of
administrative data. There is likely to be a public consultation held in November 2013 with final
recommendations to Parliament in summer 2014. The options will aim to balance user needs,
cost, statistical quality, and the public acceptability of these. They will have implications for all
population-based statistics in England and Wales and, potentially funding allocations using the
data. It will be vital that the issues around under-counting for London are addressed.

Commentary
London’s population continues to present unique challenges to public service provision due to
its size, growth, characteristics and mobility. Accurate population figures are vital as the finan-
cial impact of an undercount is felt for a decade with many central government grants allocated
through use of population figures. London Councils has previously estimated this loss of fund-
ing to be £580 per person not counted from core local government funding for 2012/134.

London’s greater reliance on ONS calculations for its final population estimate (due to its lower
response rates) puts it at a distinct disadvantage relative to other areas of the country. There
are considerable risks that a) the population is underestimated and b) incorrect characteristics
are applied to those estimated. This is less than optimal and continues to result in a ‘double
whammy’ for London local government. Those not responding to the Census, and therefore esti-
mated, are often those with the greatest need for local authority support.

In addition to this is the issue of churn in its population. It is clear from the Census results that
London’s population is young and mobile with almost one in five arriving within the last 10
years (excluding domestic migration flows) and the capital is a key destination for short-term
residents. This adds to the complexity and cost of delivering public services.

London Councils will provide further information as more details emerge from Census 2011
and the Beyond 2011 project.

3
Aggregating projected gross migration flows for domestic and international movements
4
London Councils ‘2011 Census statistics release’ briefing 17 June 2012

Author: John Bray, Finance and Policy Manager (T: 020 7934 9662)
Click here to send a comment or query to the author

Links:
Office for National Statistics - Census 2011

This member briefing has been circulated to:

Portfolio holders and those members who requested policy briefings in the following
categories: Leadership, devolution and democracy; Local government finance

London Councils, 591/2 Southwark Street, London SE1 0AL www.londoncouncils.gov.uk