Fertility

Ratio:
A Ratio is any numerator-denominator relationship between two numbers.
Sex Ratio:
Sex Ratios relate the number of males to number of females in the same population
We will discuss two types of sex ratio
1. Sex Ratio at birth
2. General Sex Ratio
1. Sex Ratio at birth:
 Sex Ratio at birth usually comes from vital registration records.
It measures or relate the male births to female births in a given population in an area
(district, region or country)
A sex ratio at birth is defined as:
𝑛𝑜 𝑜𝑓 𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑒 𝑏𝑖𝑟𝑡ℎ𝑠
𝑆𝑒𝑥 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜 𝑎𝑡 𝑏𝑖𝑟𝑡ℎ = × 100
𝑛𝑜 𝑜𝑓 𝑓𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑒 𝑏𝑖𝑟𝑡ℎ𝑠
Interpretation:
Number of male births per 100 female births in a population
 A sex ratio at birth with a value of more than 100 indicates an excess of male over
female births.
 A value less than 100 indicates an excess of female over male.
Example:
The total number of male births registered in an area of Ghana in 1962 was 16,517 and the
number of female births was 15,986. Using this piece of information calculate the sex ratio
at birth for that population and interpret the results.
Example of Bangladesh:
At birth 1.04 male(s)/female (2014 est.)
Under 15 1.03 male(s)/female
15–64 years 0.915 male(s)/female
65 and over 0.96 male(s)/female

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World sex ratio at birth 1.07
Use of Sex Ratio at Birth:
The sex ratio at birth has a number of important uses. It is needed in situations where total
births have to be separated into male and female. By assuming the sex ratio at birth or by
using actual sex ratio at birth.
Example:
If total number of births is 32,503. Sex ratio at birth is assumed to be 103 male births per
100 female births in the population. We want to know how many boys and girls in the total
population.
103
𝑁𝑜 𝑜𝑓 𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑒 𝑏𝑖𝑟𝑡ℎ𝑠 = 𝑋 32,503
203
= 16517 𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑒 𝑏𝑖𝑟𝑡ℎ𝑠
100
𝑁𝑜 𝑜𝑓 𝑓𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑒 𝑏𝑖𝑟𝑡ℎ𝑠 = 𝑋 32,503
203
= 15986 𝑓𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑒 𝑏𝑖𝑟𝑡ℎ𝑠

General Sex Ratio:

 The General Sex ratio can be obtained from census and sample surveys
The general sex ratio is the ratio of males to females in a given population.
It is defined as:
𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑒𝑠
The general sex ratio = 𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑓𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑒𝑠 𝑋 100

Interpretation:
There are No of male per 100 female in a population.
Example:
In a sample survey number of males registered in an area of Bangladesh was 5482381 and
number of female registered was 5460324. What type of sex ratio you can calculate?
Calculate the appropriate sex ratio.
Dependency Ratios:
 It indicates the relative predominance of persons in the dependent ages in relation
to those in the productive ages.

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The dependency ratio is defined as the ratio of youths under 15 years of age plus persons
aged 65 and over to adults aged 15-64 years.
(𝑐ℎ𝑖𝑙𝑑𝑟𝑒𝑛 𝑢𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑟 15 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑠) + (𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑠𝑜𝑛𝑠 𝑎𝑔𝑒𝑑 65+)
𝐷𝑒𝑝𝑒𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑦 𝑅𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜 = 𝑋 100
𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑠𝑜𝑛𝑠 𝑎𝑔𝑒𝑑 (15 − 64)𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑠
Interpretation:
There are no of dependents per 100 reproductive persons in the population.
Example:
In the 1969 Uganda census, the population aged 0-14 enumerated was 4404291; those
aged 65 years or over was 365465 and the population aged 15-64 years was 4766556.
Calculate the dependency ratio and comment on the result.

Rates: Rates usually measure the likelihood of the occurrence of a phenomenon within a
given population defined by the spatial and temporal characteristics.
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑠𝑝𝑒𝑐𝑖𝑓𝑖𝑐 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑠
𝑅𝑎𝑡𝑒 = ×𝐾
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑝𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛
Where K can be 100, 1000, 10000, 100000 and so on.

Fertility: The ability to conceive children or young. The frequency of child bearing among
the population
Fertility rate: the relative frequency of live births in an area to the population of that area;
expressed per 1000 population per year.
Fecundity: the capacity to bear children.
Reproduction: the ability of the population to grow and to replace itself.

Crude Birth Rate (CBR)

The number of live births per 1,000 population.

B
CBR = × 1,000
P
Where B in the number of live births that occur during a calendar year and P is the mid-
year population.

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General Fertility Rate (GFR)
General fertility rate is the yearly number of live births per 1,000 women of reproductive age
(usually considered to be 15-44 or 15-49).

B
GFR = × 1,000
35W15

𝐵
Where B is the total live births that occur during a period of one year and is the total
35 𝑊15
mid-year population of females of child bearing age in the 15-49 age group.

Example: Suppose there were 178,390 births re-corded during the last twelve months prior
to the census or survey and the total number of women in 15-49 age group was 1,018,447.
What is the estimate of the general fertility rate in this population?

Births during the past twelve months = 178,390. Women in 15-49 age group 35 𝑊15 =
1,018,447

B
𝐺𝐹𝑅 = × 1,000
35W15

178,390  1,000
=
1,018,447

= 175.2 𝑝𝑒𝑟 1,000 Women aged 15-49

The GFR is easy to compute and it requires no additional information about births. The
measure, however, has two limitations:
(1) As a measure of fertility it is inadequate because the denominator which measures
women at risk has been approximated only roughly ; that it does not take into account the
distribution of women within the reproductive age group (15-49) and the incidence of birth
varies considerably within this group.
(2) All unmarried women are included in the denominator.

Age-Specific Fertility Rates (ASFR)

The frequency of childbearing varies considerably from one age group to another within the
reproductive age group. This variation can be measured by computing the age-specific
fertility rates. The age specific fertility rate is the yearly number of live births per 1,000

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women in each of the seven age groups (15-19, 20-24, 25-29, 30-34, 35-39, 40-44 and 45-
49). It is a valuable measure of the current childbearing performance of women.
The age-specific fertility rate can be expressed symbolically as follows:

n 𝐵x
n 𝑓x = × 1,000
n 𝑊x

Where nfx is the age-specific fertility rate of women aged x to x+n years, nWx is the number of
women aged x to x + n years at mid-year nBx is the number of births to women aged x to x+n
years during the calendar year.

Table: Calculation of Age-Specific Birth Rates, the Total Fertility Rate and the Gross
Reproduction Rates
Total no. of births Age-specific Relatives age-
Age No. of
in the past 12 fertility rates per specific fertility
group women
months 1,000 rates
15-19 410,352 56,403 137.5 12.7
20-24 378,163 97,166 256.9 23.7
25-29 377,011 93,415 247.8 22.9
30-34 296,799 57,694 194.4 17.9
35-39 235,697 34,478 146.3 13.6
40-44 190,328 13,078 68.7 6.4
45-49 148,534 4,546 30.6 2.8
Total 2,036,884 356,780 1,082.2 100.0
Total fertility rate (TFR) = Total of age fertility rates per 1,000 X 5 = 1,082.5 X 5 = 5,411.0
TFR  100 5411.0  100
Gross production rate (GRR) =   2,665.5
203 203
Note the sex ratio at birth is 103 male births to 100 female births.

Total Fertility Rate (TFR)

Total fertility rate is the number of children a woman would have from age 15 to 49 if she
were to bear children at the prevailing age-specific rates (or the average number of children
a woman will have if she experience a given set of age-specific fertility rates through her
lifetime). It is usually derived from actual or assumed age-specific fertility rates. The rate is
obtained by summing over all the age-specific fertility rates for each year of the childbearing
span.
The total fertility rate (TFR) can be represented symbolically as follows:

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 49 49
 B 
TFR = n  n f x  n   n x 
x 15 x 15  nWx 

For analyzing fertility trends, the total fertility rate is more useful than the general fertility
rate. An important conceptual of the total fertility rate is that it states the number of births
1,000 women would have if they experienced a given set of age-specific birth rates
throughout the reproductive age span. The rate of 5.4 for any year, say, 1960, for example,
means that if a hypothetical group of 1,000 women were to have the same birth rates at each
single year of age that were observed in the entire childbearing population in 1960, they
would have a total of 5,400 children by the time they had reached the end of the reproductive
period, assuming that all survive to that age.

Gross Reproduction Rate (GRR)

Gross re production rate if the average number of daughter a woman would have or bear if
she experiences a given set of age-specific fertility rates through the reproductive ages with
no allowance for mortality over this period. This index equals total fertility times the
proportion of births that are daughter. It is a good index for measuring changes in future
fertility potential. It is often interpreted as showing the extent to which the generation of
daughters would replace the preceding generation of females of fertility remains constant.
𝑇𝐹𝑅
𝐺𝑅𝑅 =
1 + 𝑆𝑒𝑥 𝑅𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜 𝑎𝑡 𝑏𝑖𝑟𝑡ℎ

Child – Woman Ratio (CWR)

The child-woman ratio (fertility ratio) is the number of children per 1,000 women of child
bearing age. Various ages of children have been used, but usually the numerator refers to
children aged 0-4, 5-9 or 0-9, and the denominator refers to woman aged 15-49, 20-54 or
15-54. CWR is defined symbolically as follows:
5𝑃 0 5𝑃 5 10𝑃 0
𝐶𝑊𝑅 = ; ;
35𝑊 15 35𝑊 20 40𝑊 15

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Mean age at childbearing, median and mode age:
Relative Cumulative
Total no. Total no. of Average no. of
Age Mean percentage percentage Age group
of births during births during past fixi
group age, xi age age (exclusive)
women past 12 months 12 months, fi
distribution distribution
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
15-19 410352 56403 0.13745 17 2.336655 12.70153 12.70 14.5-19.5
20-24 378163 97166 0.256942 22 5.652726 23.74354 36.45 19.5-24.5
25-29 377011 93415 0.247778 27 6.690004 22.8967 59.34 24.5-29.5
30-34 296799 57694 0.194387 32 6.220398 17.96298 77.30 29.5-34.5
35-39 235697 34478 0.146281 37 5.412398 13.51756 90.82 34.5-39.5
40-44 190328 13078 0.068713 42 2.885944 6.349637 97.17 39.5-44.5
45-49 148543 4546 0.030604 47 1.438385 2.828053 100 44.5-49.5

Total 2036893 356780 1.082156 30.63651 100

∑ 𝑓𝑖 𝑥𝑖 30.63651
𝑀𝑒𝑎𝑛 𝑎𝑔𝑒 = = = 28.3 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑠
∑ 𝑓𝑖 1.082156
𝑛
−𝐹 50 − 36.45
𝑀𝑒𝑑𝑖𝑎𝑛 𝑎𝑔𝑒 = 𝐿𝑚 + 2 𝑐 = 24.5 + × 5 = 27.5 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑠
𝑓 22.8967
∆1
𝑀𝑜𝑑𝑎𝑙 𝑎𝑔𝑒 = 𝐿𝑜 + 𝑐
∆1 + ∆2
(23.74354 − 12.70153)
= 19.5 + × 5 = 24.1 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑠
(23.74354 − 12.70153) + (23.74354 − 22.8967)

Age pattern of fertility:

Age group Early peak (%) Broad peak (%) Late peak (%)
15-19 16.2 8.9 5.6
20-24 24.7 23.7 19.4
25-29 21.9 24.4 24.6
30-34 17.4 19.9 23.3
35-39 11.8 14.7 17.2
40-44 5.8 6.5 8.4
45-49 2.2 1.9 1.5

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 RELATIVE ASFR COMPARISONS
Early peak (%) Broad peak (%) Late peak (%)
30
RELATIVE SPECIFIC FERTILITIES (%)

25

20

15

10

0
15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49
AGE IN YEARS

The UN classifies age-specific fertility distributions in three broad groups:

1. Early peak type (maximum fertility in the age group 20-24)
2. Late peak type (maximum fertility in the age group 25-29)
3. Broad peak type (ASFR in the age group 20-24 and 25-29 differ only slightly)

Fertility Differentials
Factors that affects fertility indirectly:
 Rural or Urban areas of residence
 Level of education attained
 Type of marriage (monogamous or polygamous)
 Religion