Inferencia Tema 1

Métodos cuantitativos para
la inferencia
Tema 1- Introducción a la estadísitica
Trimestre 2020-1
Introduction
The tip of the iceberg
The tip of the iceberg
Estadísitica
Definitions
• Statistics is the science of conducting studies to
• collect
• organize
• summarize data.
• analyze
• draw conclusions from
Types
Descriptive statistics
• collection, organization, summarization, and presentation of data
• to describe a situation
Types
Inferential statistics
• To make inferences and evaluate claims about a population from a sample
• To determine relationships among variables
• To make predictions
Population
Sample
Descriptive or inferential statistics?
1. The government predicts that the population of Mexico in 2030 will
be 238,647,000 people..
2. The average price of a kilo of tortillas in a recent year was 14 pesos
3. A medical report stated that taking antidepressants is proven to
improve mood, but some people are at a slightly higher risk of
developing addiction.
4. A survey of 956 households found that 80% of the respondents paid
more than 16% of the income for energy services.
Information sources:
Data, population, sample
Variables and data
• Variable
• characteristic or attribute that can assume different values
• Data
• values (measurements or observations) that variables can assume
• Data set
• A collection of data values of one or many variables
• Data base
• A collection of several data sets.
Data (in data science)
• Physical representation of information, usually numerical,
that is the result from the generation, collection,
observation, or registration of subjects, objects, events, or
processes and is suitable for communication, interpretation,
or processing by human or automatic means
• A social commodity fundamentally shaped by human
interactions and social negotiations
• Data is a simplification —an abstraction
http://www.dashbay.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/bigdata.jpg
Population and sample
• Population
• All subjects, objects, events, or processes that are being studied
• Sample
• A group of elements selected from certain population
Population
Sample
Collections and sampling
• Survey
• Telephone
• Mailed questionnaires
• Personal interview
• Other Experiments
• Direct observations
• Automatic collection and smart metering (software)
Sample types
Random sample
Random
selection
Systematic sample
Stratified sample
Cluster sample
Sampling and non sampling errors
• Sampling error
• Difference between the results obtained from a sample and the results
obtained from the population
• Nonsampling error
• Data collection deviations and faulty study design
Which sampling method was used?
1. A researcher selects one out of 10 neighborhoods and collects
records for a 24-hour period on the types of crimes that occurred
there
2. A researcher divides a group of students according to gender and
income. Then 10 students are randomly selected from each group
3. The subscribers to a gym are numbered and a sample of these
athletes is drawn with random numbers
4. Every 10th bottle of beer is selected and its volume content is
measured to see if the filling machines are working properly
Types of variables and
measurement scales
Variable types
• Qualitative
• Variables with distinct categories according to some characteristic or attribute
• Quantitative
• variables that can be counted or measured.
i. Discrete assume values that can be counted
ii. Continuous assume an infinite number of values between any two value limits
Measurement scales
Continua
Intervalo
“Discreta”
Cuantitativas
Continua
Cociente
“Discreta”
Variables
Nominales Discreta
Categóricas
Ordinales Discreta
Measurement scales
Nominales Operaciones =, ≠
(Etiquetas o categorías)
Categóricas
Ordinales Operaciones =, ≠, <,>

(Orden o clasificación)
Images (Whitney, 2012)

Measurement scales
Interval Operaciones =, ≠, <,>,-

(Cero arbitrario)
Cuantitativas
o numéricas
Cociente Operaciones =, ≠, <,>,-,%

(Cero fijo)
Images (Whitney, 2012)

Summary
(Bluman, 2018)
Boundaries(continuous variable)
• Continuous data are rounded because of the limits of the measuring
device (related to accuracy, sensitivity and precision)
• The boundaries define a range within which the actual data value
should be placed
73.45 73.5 73.55
Reported value
25.5 26 26.5
Case study
MCC school
From (Bluman, 2018)

Uses and misuses
Damner lies
“There are three types of lies—lies, damn lies, and

statistics” Anonymous
“Figures don’t lie, but liars figure” Mark Twain

Way to figure out
• Suspect Samples
• Ambiguous Averages
• Changing the Subject (different indicators to represent same data)
• Detached Statistics
• Implied Connections
• Misleading Graph
• Faulty Survey Questions
References
• Anderson, D.R., Sweeney, D.J., Williams, T.A., 2008. Estadística para administración y economía. International Thomson.
• Bluman, A.G., 2018. Elementary statistics: A step by step approach. McGraw-Hill Higher Education New York, NY.
• DeGroot, M.H., Schervish, M.J., 2019. Probability and statistics. Addison-Wesley, Boston, MA.
• Gailmard, S., 2014. Statistical modeling and inference for social science. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, MA.
• Imai, K., 2018. Quantitative social science: An introduction. Princeton University Press.
• Johnson, R., Kuby, P., 2008. Estadistica elemental/Just the Essentials of Elementary Statistics: Lo esencial/The Essentials. Cengage
Learning Editores.
• Lind, D.A., Marchal, W.G., Wathen, S.A., Obón León, M.d.P., León Cárdenas, J., 2012. Estadística aplicada a los negocios y la
economía. México: McGraw-Hill/Interamericana Editores.
• Matloff, N., 2019. Probability and Statistics for Data Science: Math+ R+ Data. CRC Press, London.
• Wackerly, D.D., Muñoz, R., Humbertotr, J., 2010. Estadística matemática con aplicaciones. Cengage Learning, Mexico City.
• Wasserman, L., 2013. All of statistics: a concise course in statistical inference. Springer Science & Business Media, Pittsburgh, PA.
• Wooldridge, J.M., 2012. Introductory Econometrics: A Modern Approach. Cengage Learning, Boston, MA.

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Métodos cuantitativos para

Ordinales Operaciones =, ≠, <,>

Images (Whitney, 2012)

Interval Operaciones =, ≠, <,>,-

Cociente Operaciones =, ≠, <,>,-,%

Images (Whitney, 2012)

73.45 73.5 73.55

From (Bluman, 2018)

“There are three types of lies—lies, damn lies, and

“Figures don’t lie, but liars figure” Mark Twain

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