Method To Prioritize Hazardousness of Locations For Black Spot Identification Using Analytic Hierarchy Process

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Urbanization Challenges in Emerging Economies 714

Method to Prioritize Hazardousness of Locations for Black Spot Identification Using


Analytic Hierarchy Process
Vidhi Vyas1 and Amit Goel, Ph.D., M.ASCE2
1
Dept. of Civil Engineering, BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus, Pilani 333031, Rajasthan, India.
E-mail: vidhivyas.29@gmail.com
2
Dept. of Civil Engineering, BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus, Pilani 333031, Rajasthan, India.
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E-mail: amit.goel@pilani.bits-pilani.ac.in

ABSTRACT
A vehicular traffic accident analysis process should start with identifying the cause(s) of the
accident. The multitude of factors responsible for causing an accident, acting solitary or in
combination, include road, driver, vehicle, and environment characteristics. As such, the accident
analysis process assumes complexity in deciding the perceived domain, and relative importance
of the influencing factors. This paper presents a method to simplify this complexity by use of
analytic hierarchy process (AHP). Once this is done, AHP is further applied to identify the most
hazardous ones, called the black spots. The methodology is demonstrated by taking a case study
of a National Highway in India (NH-52, Sikar-Reengus), whereby, the identification of accident
black spots, and further investigation is done so as to be able to suggest improvements.
Geographic information system (GIS) is used for spatial visualization of the accident data. Four
accident black spots are identified. The major reasons contributing to the accidents are found to
be poor visibility, over speeding, drunk driving, etc. Suitable mitigation and preventive measures
are suggested for improvement at the spots.

INTRODUCTION
Road deaths and injuries highly affect the lives of people worldwide. Still it is one of the
neglected global problems and requires collective efforts for mitigation and prevention.
According to the records of World Health Organization (WHO), about 1.25 million people die
each year due to road traffic crashes. About half of these deaths are among vulnerable road users
i.e., pedestrians, cyclists, and riders of motorized two-wheelers and their passengers. Another 20-
50 million people gets injured with many sufferings from disability as a result of the injury.
Considerable economic losses are also caused to victims and affected families in the form of
rehabilitation and treatment costs, also reduced productivity due to those killed or disabled.
Approximately 90% of the road traffic deaths occur in low and middle-income countries even
though they account for 54% of the world’s vehicles (WHO 2015). India has faced serious
impact on road safety with rapid expansion of its road network and increased growth rate of
motorized vehicles. Transport Research Wing (TRW) of Ministry of Road Transport and
Highways (MoRTH), India reported 501,423 total number of road accidents (increased by 2.5%
in one year) and 146,133 fatalities (defined as died within 30 days of crash) in the year 2015 due
to road accidents. Vulnerable road users are found to be among the largest proportion of
fatalities, associated with collisions with buses, trucks and cars (Mohan et al. 2016).
Among the Indian states, Rajasthan accounts for eighth highest (24,072) in total number of
crashes and fifth highest (10,510) in road fatalities. About 1.7% of national highways and 3.9%
of state highway road network accounts for 52.4% of the reported road crashes (MoRTH 2015a).
In general, the key risk factors that cause likelihood of accident occurrence and increased

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severity include, increase in average speed of vehicle, drinking and driving, distracted driving,
and driving without wearing helmets and seat-belts. Improved legislation, enforcement, safer
roads and vehicles have achieved success in reducing the number of road deaths in high-income
countries.
Data reveal that fifty-eight black spots are located in Rajasthan in the year 2016 and twenty
of them are found on NH-8. Guideline used for these black spot identification is that either five
road accidents took place during the last three calendar years or ten fatalities took place during
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the last three calendar years, in a stretch of National Highway of about 500 m in length (MoRTH
2015b). However, this guideline has no statistical or analytical basis. So it may not correctly
represent the situation. In this study, a method is presented to identify black spot considering
several parameters.
Analysis of accident data can be based on three basic requirements. Since accident locations
are distributed spatially over a large scale, hence there is a need of spatial visualization of data.
Parameters that influence the occurrence of an accident need to be identified and studied,
whether they have been formally recorded or not. Once the parameters have been identified there
is a requirement of certain decision making to assign relative importance/weights to them.
Decision making is also required to rank the accident locations according to their hazardousness.

LITERATURE REVIEW
Occurrence of accident is governed by many parameters. These need to be identified and
assigned relative importance, which involves decision-making. Road geometrics (pavement and
shoulder width, roughness, sight distance, gradient, cross fall, super elevation, extra-widening,
etc.) driver and road user characteristics (physical, mental and psychological factors), vehicular
characteristics (vehicle dimensions, turning radius, weight, axle configuration, braking and
acceleration characteristics, etc.), environmental factors (rain, fog, snow, etc.) are some of the
factors to be considered for the study. Some researchers gave more importance to factors related
to road geometrics such as surface, shoulder, drainage, lighting, marking, signs and signals and
developed a safety hazardous index (Agarwal et al. 2013). Some others considered driver and
road-user characteristics as important factors in their study (Najib et al. 2012; Islam and
Kanitpong 2008). Environmental factors were also considered by few others (Sordyl 2015).
Some have applied statistical approach to associate certain degree of reliability to the estimates
(Rao et al. 2005).
Due to limited availability of budget, it is advisable to prioritize the hazardous locations so
that they can be treated preferably. Thus, it is required to prioritize the locations by ranking them
using suitable decision-making tool. These ranked locations can be further analyzed in details by
using comprehensive accident studies, to arrive at the location specific problems and suitable
remedial measures.
One such decision making method is Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). It was first
introduced by Thomas L. Saaty (Saaty 1980). The problem is presented in the form of hierarchy
and suitable weights are assigned to each element of the hierarchy. Systematic and quantitative
comparison of relative importance of the criteria is performed. It is based on the principle that
knowledge and judgement of people is valuable while making decision. Thus, decision makers
are involved and they are asked to judge the relative importance of each criterion and rate the
preference using a scale called Saaty’s scale, from 1 to 9 to ultimately rank the alternatives. The
process involves four major evaluation stages (Saaty 1990; Vargas 1990):

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1. Structure the problem into hierarchy by breaking down the problem into simpler
constituent decision elements.
2. Generation of pairwise comparison matrices based on Saaty’s scale.
3. Estimation of weights using eigenvalues and normalizing them to obtain consistency
among measures.
4. Calculate the overall ranking.
Some researchers prioritized methods to identify accident black spots, such as frequency of
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accidents method, accident rate method, accident intensity method and accident rate-intensity
method. Traffic volume, accident intensity, comprehensiveness, precision in results, effect of
distance and previous experiences were chosen as criteria from literature (Rouhi and Behzadi
2016). Some other prioritized policies to achieve targets of reduced traffic accidents, reduced
pollution, reduced carelessness and minimize congestion (Hajeeh 2012). Thus, this method has
been applied in wide variety of decision situations arising from various sectors.
Graphic data representation methods have also been found useful to draw conclusions
regarding accident black spots (Meshram and Goliya 2013; Nikhil and Kulkarni 2013; Patel et al.
2013; Shruthi et al. 2013). For the locations where the accident data is not available or is limited,
public participation approach is found useful for identifying black spot locations. Its other benefit
is that such studies help in generating public awareness towards the road safety (Kowtanapanich
et al. 2006).
The present study aims at identifying the black spots on Sikar-Reengus section of NH-52,
and detailed analysis of those spots to identify the reasons/contributing factors for the accidents.
GIS has been used to map accident and geometric data due to its spatial analysis capabilities and
various thematic maps are generated. Many researchers have found the use of GIS to represent
and visualize the accident data (Apparao et al. 2013; Deepthi and Ganeshkumar 2010; Isen et al.
2013). AHP has been applied to rank various accidents spots and identify the black spots.
Geometric and traffic studies are conducted specifically at these spots to aid the detailed
analysis. The various contributing factors for the accidents are analyzed and identified, with
recommendations and suggestions for improvement.

DATA ANALYSIS
Police records and National Highway Authority of India (NHAI) provided the accident data
required for this study. The data is for approximately four years (December 2012 to October
2016), containing 309 number of accidents. It include the particulars of accident location, nature
of accident, classification of accident based on severity, reason for accident, geometric features,
weather condition at the time of accident, and other details (IRC 2012a). The geometric features
of the road are identified after visiting the site and the video-graphic data recorded for the entire
stretch of Sikar-Reengus section. The maps obtained from NHAI of the entire road section also
helped to identify the road features. Table 1 and Table 2 present the geometric design standards
(IRC 1980) and flexible pavement structure with bituminous overlay (IRC 1997), respectively
for the road section under study.
The prominent geometric features of Sikar-Reengus section of NH-52 at accident locations
can be seen from Figure 1. The road stretch is mostly straight with slight curve, sharp curve and
steep incline at few locations. These changes in road features may be some of the factors
contributing to the accidents. Stopping sight distance requirements for the design speed of 100
km/h is calculated to be 181.98 m. However, as the road section is straight at the black spot
locations, the required sight distance is assumed to be already existent. At many locations, there

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are access roads joining National Highway, forming a T-junctions. The presence of these
junctions resulted in the merging of traffic originating from the surrounding villages, mostly at
high speeds due to the absence of any traffic calming and monitoring facility. This also involves
the wrong side maneuvers which hinders the traffic flow of National Highway and has been a
factor contributing occurrence of fatal accidents, mainly in the form of head-on collisions. The
carelessness in drunk-driving countermeasures is also equally responsible for high number of
accidents.
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Table 1. Geometric design standards.


Specifications Value
Total road length 43.887 km
Terrain plain/rolling
Formation width 12.0 m
Carriageway width 7.0 m
Median width 4.5 m
Shoulder width including 3.5 m
Paved shoulder 1.5 m
Earthen shoulder 2.0 m

Cross fall on paved surface 2.5%


Ruling gradient 1 in 30
Limiting gradient 1 in 20
Ruling design speed 100 km/h
Ruling minimum speed 80 km/h

Table 2. Flexible pavement structure.


Specifications Value
Bituminous concrete 40 mm
Dense bituminous macadam 120 mm
Water bound macadam 250 mm
Granular sub-base 200 mm
Total thickness 610 mm
Bituminous overlay
Bituminous concrete 40 mm
Dense bituminous macadam 120 mm

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Figure 1. Geometric features of the road at accident locations, Sikar-Reengus, NH-52.


Figure 2 shows the plot of total number of accidents during day (06:00 to 18:00 hours) and
night (18:00 to 06:00 hours) time at the locations. For both day and night time, the cumulative
number of accidents for most of the locations is found to be almost equal. Total 184 accidents
during day and 125 accidents during night have been recorded for the entire stretch during the
study period. Visibility problem at curves, particularly due to poor lighting at night, makes one
of the reasons for accidents. During the night hours the places where road section is two-lane
have more accidents, which shows that abrupt change in number of lanes created bottleneck
situation and resulted in accidents. Figure 3 shows total number of fatal and non-fatal accidents
at the locations. Non-fatal accidents include accidents resulting in grievous and minor injuries,
and accidents with no injury. It can be seen that at all the locations, fatal and non-fatal accidents
have equal share, approximately. A total of 203 deaths have been recorded from 163 fatal
accidents out of a total of 309 accidents, with 134 people grievously injured. This shows the
severity of these locations and the need for immediate improvement.

Figure 2. Total number of accidents during day & night time (hours) at accident locations,
Sikar-Reengus, NH-52.

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Figure 3. Total number of fatal and non-fatal accidents at accident locations, Sikar-
Reengus, NH-52.

METHODOLOGY FOR RANKING SEVERITY OF ACCIDENT LOCATIONS USING


AHP
This section presents the four stage methodology of AHP to assess the severity of accident
locations.

Stage 1: Structure the problem into hierarchy


The hierarchy of the proposed problem is shown in Figure 4. The six decision criteria
(straight road, presence of curve, presence of intersection, ratio of fatal number of accidents to
the total number of accidents, ratio of grievous number of accidents to the total number of
accidents and ratio of minor number of accidents to the total number of accidents) are identified
to rank ten alternatives. These ten alternatives (A1, A2,…,A10) are the accidents locations,
namely Akhepura, Bajor, Bawadi, Bhopatpura, Goriya, Palsana, Ramu ka Bas, Ranoli, Thikaria
and Trilokpura. These locations are selected based on the accident data records provided by
National Highways Authority of India (NHAI).

Figure 4. Hierarchy tree.

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Stage 2: Generation of pairwise comparison matrices


The above mentioned criteria may not equally affect the hazardousness of any location. To
assess the contribution of each criterion, it is required to allocate them suitable weights. This is
done by making pairwise comparisons using matrices for criteria and alternatives based on
Saaty’s ranking scale. For this purpose, averaged response from five decision makers is obtained.

Stage 3: Estimation of weights


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The developed matrices obtained using the judgement of decision makers are then analyzed
using Expert Choice software and weights for criteria and alternatives are then obtained. Figure 5
and 6 show the obtained weights for criteria and alternatives, respectively. Presence of
intersection is the criterion allotted with the highest weight, followed by the ratio of fatal number
of accidents to the total number of accidents; ratio of grievous number of accidents to the total
number of accidents; ratio of minor number of accidents to the total number of accidents;
presence of curve; and straight road. This means that the presence of an intersection at any
location is the most severe parameter governing the hazardousness at that location, primarily due
to increased number of conflict points.

Stage 4: Calculation of overall ranking


From Figure 6, it is clearly seen that Ranoli has the maximum weight, followed by
Trilokpura, Goriya, Palsana, Bawadi, Bajor, Ramu ka Bas, Thikaria, Akhepura and Bhopatpura.
Weight of 0.1 is taken as threshold for an accident spot to become a black spot. Thus, Ranoli,
Trilokpura, Goriya, and Palsana have been identified as black spots. Bawadi is the potential
black spot. If proper remedial measures are not taken, it has high chances of being another black
spot.

Ti = total number of accidents


Figure 5. Weights of criteria obtained
using AHP.

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Figure 6. Weights of alternatives obtained using AHP.


BLACK SPOT ANALYSIS
Ranoli, Trilokpura, Goriya, and Palsana are identified as the black spots. The geometric
features at these locations are further studied to identify the location specific problems. Remedial
measures and improvements are suggested at each of these locations.

Ranoli
The land use around the road section in Ranoli is such that it has substantial residential and
commercial activities spread around the four-lane divided National Highway. Due to this,
movement of pedestrians and local vehicles around the highway is quite high. A high number of
head-on and side-swipe collisions, as well as overturning of vehicles have been reported. The
main contributing factor of these accidents is identified as overspeeding according to the police
records. As there is an access road directly connected to the National Highway at this location, it
is observed that wrong side traffic maneuvers originating/culminating from this access road is
quite high. A high number of cross movement of pedestrians is observed through the gaps
between the crash barriers and the iron barricades, which may be cited as a major contributing
factor for accidents.

Trilokpura
The horizontal profile of the road at this section has presence of horizontal alignment, which
affects the available sight distance. Overspeeding, particularly at curves, increases the risk of
accidents due to the reduced sight distance. The junction of access road connecting to the
National Highway is not provided with any traffic calming measure. Due to this high number of
wrong maneuvers originating from access road are observed. This eventually leads to accidents
in the form of head-on or right-turn collisions, sometimes causing overturning of vehicles.

Goriya
The land use along Goriya road section consists of the presence of a fuel station, a bus-stop
along the highway, and proximity to a railway station. This leads to increased number of road

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users, pedestrian movements, as well as wrong side vehicle movements. Available sight distance
is reduced due to the presence of horizontal alignment and overspeeding in such cases increases
the risk of occurrence of accident.

Palsana
Palsana has two-lane road section in-between the longitudinal profile of the four-lane divided
highway. This creates bottleneck situation and increases the risk of accidents. The road has
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gentle incline, and iron barricades are not present along the incline. Quite high number of
collisions is reported, occurring mainly due to illegal wrong turning of vehicles from access road
connecting to the National Highway. This eventually leads to accidents in the form of head-on-
collisions, or right-turn collisions, sometimes causing overturning of vehicles.

MITIGATION AND PREVENTION MEASURES


For a detailed accident analysis some more relevant data is required. Information regarding
driver characteristics (age, gender), road characteristics, weather conditions, and collision
diagram will be very helpful (Ponnaluri 2012). Thus, it is suggested that the extent and quality of
accident data collected should be improved further to get comprehensive information. IRC has
published various specifications and manuals for the safety, information and guidance of the road
users (IRC 1996). These traffic safety rules and laws are expected to be strictly implemented,
and followed by the road users. In order to address safety on rural highways, policies should
focus on pedestrians, non-motorists, and slow moving vehicles (Mohan 2009). Provisions for
safe cross movements of pedestrians along the highway, which may include crosswalks, raised
pedestrian crossings, refuge islands; underpass or overpass should be there. Drunk driving is a
criminal offence in India according to the Section 185 in The Motor Vehicles Act, 1988
(MoRTH 1988). Such cases are required to be frequently monitored, and dealt strictly with high
level of fines or imprisonment according to the norms. Installation of appropriate informatory,
warning and caution signs at suitable locations is required (IRC 2012b). Random entry and exit
roads result in wrong side movements, and median crossovers resulting in impedance to traffic
flow and increased risk of accident. Thus, suitable traffic calming measures, such as speed
humps on the access roads are required to slow down the traffic before merging on the National
Highway. Provision of acceleration and deceleration lanes should also be there to reduce the
conflict points. Sufficient illumination along the road and particularly, at junctions will help to
reduce the number of accidents occurring during the night hours. Few policy decisions should be
taken by the concerned authorities to eliminate the wrong direction movements. Road safety
audits should be employed and suggestions should be carefully implemented.

CONCLUSION
The AHP based method for quantifying the location hazardousness has been applied to rank
various accidents spots, and hence identify the black spots on Sikar-Reengus section of NH-52.
A further detailed analysis has been done at these identified spots to ascertain the reasons/
contributing factors for the accidents, as well as to relate them to the parameters chosen in the
AHP method for verification purpose. From the method verification, it can be concluded that the
hazardousness of a (i) straight road stretch without intense land use depends more on the fault of
driver or motor vehicles, (mostly overspeeding), (ii) straight road stretch with intense land use
depends more on the cross movements of road users, (iii) road stretch with horizontal curve

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depends more on visibility at curves, and (iv) road stretch with junction depends on high number
of conflict points and lack of traffic calming/traffic monitoring measures. The proposed AHP
based method is found to be effective in quantifying the hazardousness of accident locations, and
identification of black spots, on the NH section.

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