Final Assignment 2 Chafik
Final Assignment 2 Chafik
Final Assignment 2 Chafik
Problem 1: A metal is used to make components for jet turbine aircraft engines. Cracking is a potentially serious problem
in the final part because it can lead to non-recoverable failure. A test is run at the parts producer to determine the effect of
four factors on cracks. The four factors are pouring temperature(A), titanium content (B), heat treatment method (C), and
amount of grain refiner used (D). Two replicates of a 24 design are run, and the length of crack (in mm ×10-2) induced in a
sample coupon subjected to a standard test is measured. The data are shown in Prob1_Ass2.mtw.
(a) [2 points]Estimate the factor effects.
Answer: Based on the Minitab results attached, all factors with P-Values > 0.0500 are not significant. These
include all higher terms interactions with the exception of ABC, AC, AD, & A, B, C, D single effect factors
Coded Coefficients
Model Summary
S R-sq R-sq(adj) R-sq(pred)
Analysis of Variance
Source DF Adj SS Adj MS
Total 31 572.246
Total
Alias Structure
Factor Name
A Pour Temperature
B Titanium Content
D Grain Refiner
ALIASES: I, A, B, C, D, AB, AC, AD, BC, BD, CD, ABC, ABD, ACD, BCD, ABCD
Analysis of Variance
Source DF Seq SS Contribution Adj SS
Error 0.065
Total
Alias Structure
A Pour Temperature
B Titanium Content
D Grain Refiner
[3 points]
(b) Write two regression models for predicting crack length, one for each level of the heat treatment method
variable. What differences, if any, do you notice in these two equations?
Regression Equations
Heat
Treat
Method
-1 Crack = 13.786 + 1.509 Pour Temperature + 1.988 Titanium Content + 0.979 Grain Refiner
Length
1 Crack = 10.190 + 1.509 Pour Temperature + 1.988 Titanium Content + 0.979 Grain Refiner
Length
Answer: The two equation differs in terms of their constant terms i.e. at lower level of heat treatment (-1),
Bo=13.785 while at higher level (+1), its value is 10.190
[2 points]
(c) Generate appropriate response surface contour plots for the two regression models in part (b). Describe.
Answer: Based on the Minitab output, all main effects are significant including all two factors interactions with
the exception of Titanium concentration-Heat treatment Method that has P-Value greater than 0.0500
Coded Coefficients
Term Effect Coef SE Coef 95% CI
Constant 12.0103 0.0684 (11.8486, 12.1720)
Pour Temperature 3.0436 1.5218 0.0684 (1.3601, 1.6835)
Titanium Content 4.0421 2.0211 0.0684 (1.8594, 2.1828)
Heat Treat Method -3.4244 -1.7122 0.0684 (-1.8739, -1.5505)
Grain Refiner 1.9649 0.9824 0.0684 (0.8207, 1.1441)
Pour Temperature*Titanium Content 1.9886 0.9943 0.0684 (0.8326, 1.1560)
Pour Temperature*Heat Treat Method -3.8469 -1.9234 0.0684 (-2.0851, -1.7617)
Titanium Content*Heat Treat Method 0.1831 0.0916 0.0684 (-0.0701, 0.2533)
Pour Temperature*Titanium Content*Heat Treat Method 3.0861 1.5431 0.0684 (1.3814, 1.7048)
Model Summary
S R-sq R-sq(adj) PRESS R-sq(pred) AICc BIC
0.273542 99.81% 99.60% 2.73647 99.02% 54.70 18.42
Analysis of Variance
Source DF Seq SS Contribution Adj SS
Model 8 278.001 99.81% 278.001
Linear 4 164.758 59.15% 164.758
Pour Temperature 1 37.055 13.30% 37.055
Titanium Content 1 65.355 23.46% 65.355
Heat Treat Method 1 46.905 16.84% 46.905
Grain Refiner 1 15.443 5.54% 15.443
2-Way Interactions 3 75.146 26.98% 75.146
Pour Temperature*Titanium Content 1 15.819 5.68% 15.819
Pour Temperature*Heat Treat Method 1 59.194 21.25% 59.194
Titanium Content*Heat Treat Method 1 0.134 0.05% 0.134
3-Way Interactions 1 38.097 13.68% 38.097
Pour Temperature*Titanium Content*Heat Treat Method 1 38.097 13.68% 38.097
Error 7 0.524 0.19% 0.524
Total 15 278.525 100.00%
Error 0.0748
Total
a) Analyze the effects of the 4 factors on the efficiency of the heat radiator. Use α =0.05 .
[2 points]
From the attached Minitab, all treatments combinations or single effect treatments with P-value.0.0500 are not
significant The heat radiator is only affected with those treatment combinations with P-value <0.05.
The data satisfy normality assumption, homogeneity, and independent. This can be seen in the attached plots. A
further confirmation can be seen in the residual plots and the probability plots.
Coded Coefficients
Term Effect Coef SE Coef 95% CI T-Value P-Value VIF
Constant 82.469 0.445 (81.525, 83.413) 185.22 0.000
A -8.562 -4.281 0.445 (-5.225, -3.337) -9.62 0.000 1.00
B -1.813 -0.906 0.445 (-1.850, 0.038) -2.04 0.059 1.00
C -3.312 -1.656 0.445 (-2.600, -0.712) -3.72 0.002 1.00
D 4.438 2.219 0.445 (1.275, 3.163) 4.98 0.000 1.00
A*B 4.687 2.344 0.445 (1.400, 3.288) 5.26 0.000 1.00
A*C 1.188 0.594 0.445 (-0.350, 1.538) 1.33 0.201 1.00
A*D -2.812 -1.406 0.445 (-2.350, -0.462) -3.16 0.006 1.00
B*C -1.062 -0.531 0.445 (-1.475, 0.413) -1.19 0.250 1.00
B*D 0.437 0.219 0.445 (-0.725, 1.163) 0.49 0.630 1.00
C*D 2.188 1.094 0.445 (0.150, 2.038) 2.46 0.026 1.00
A*B*C -4.563 -2.281 0.445 (-3.225, -1.337) -5.12 0.000 1.00
A*B*D 4.187 2.094 0.445 (1.150, 3.038) 4.70 0.000 1.00
A*C*D -1.563 -0.781 0.445 (-1.725, 0.163) -1.75 0.098 1.00
B*C*D -0.312 -0.156 0.445 (-1.100, 0.788) -0.35 0.730 1.00
A*B*C*D 1.937 0.969 0.445 (0.025, 1.913) 2.18 0.045 1.00
Analysis of Variance
Source DF Seq SS Contribution Adj SS Adj MS F-Value P-Value
Model 15 1514.47 93.72% 1514.47 100.965 15.92 0.000
Linear 4 858.12 53.10% 858.12 214.531 33.82 0.000
A 1 586.53 36.30% 586.53 586.531 92.46 0.000
B 1 26.28 1.63% 26.28 26.281 4.14 0.059
Aliases: I, A, B, C, D, AB, AC, AD, BC, BD, CD, ABC,ABD, ACD, BCD,ABCD
Analysis of Variance
Source DF Seq SS Contribution Adj SS Adj MS F-Value P-Value
Model 12 1464.12 90.60% 1464.12 122.010 15.27 0.000
Linear 4 858.12 53.10% 858.12 214.531 26.84 0.000
A 1 586.53 36.30% 586.53 586.531 73.39 0.000
B 1 26.28 1.63% 26.28 26.281 3.29 0.086
C 1 87.78 5.43% 87.78 87.781 10.98 0.004
[3 points]
b) Consider the data from the second replicate. Construct a design of two blocks of eight observations each
with ABCD confounded. Analyze the data. Compare your findings to a)
The effect of B, D, AB, AC, AD, BC, BD, CD are not significant since they all have p-value >0.0500 while that
of AB IS SLIGHTLY significant. All other effects are significant. This is not the same as the result obtained in
Coded Coefficients
Term Effect Coef SE Coef 95% CI T-Value P-Value VIF
Constant 82.188 0.717 (79.905, 84.470) 114.60 0.000
Blocks
1 -0.813 0.717 (-3.095, 1.470) -1.13 0.340 1.00
A -8.125 -4.063 0.717 (-6.345, -1.780) -5.66 0.011 1.00
B -1.875 -0.938 0.717 (-3.220, 1.345) -1.31 0.282 1.00
C -4.625 -2.313 0.717 (-4.595, -0.030) -3.22 0.048 1.00
D 2.875 1.438 0.717 (-0.845, 3.720) 2.00 0.139 1.00
A*B 3.625 1.813 0.717 (-0.470, 4.095) 2.53 0.086 1.00
A*C 0.875 0.438 0.717 (-1.845, 2.720) 0.61 0.585 1.00
A*D -0.625 -0.312 0.717 (-2.595, 1.970) -0.44 0.692 1.00
B*C 0.125 0.063 0.717 (-2.220, 2.345) 0.09 0.936 1.00
B*D 1.125 0.562 0.717 (-1.720, 2.845) 0.78 0.490 1.00
A*B*C -4.375 -2.188 0.717 (-4.470, 0.095) -3.05 0.055 1.00
A*B*D 4.625 2.313 0.717 (0.030, 4.595) 3.22 0.048 1.00
Model Summary
S R-sq R-sq(adj) PRESS R-sq(pred) AICc BIC
2.86865 96.24% 81.20% 702.222 0.00% 500.35 91.16
Analysis of Variance
Source DF Seq SS Contribution Adj SS Adj MS F-Value P-Value
Model 12 631.750 96.24% 631.750 52.646 6.40 0.076
Blocks 1 10.563 1.61% 10.562 10.562 1.28 0.340
Linear 4 396.750 60.44% 396.750 99.188 12.05 0.034
A 1 264.063 40.23% 264.063 264.063 32.09 0.011
B 1 14.063 2.14% 14.062 14.062 1.71 0.282
C 1 85.563 13.03% 85.562 85.562 10.40 0.048
D 1 33.063 5.04% 33.063 33.063 4.02 0.139
2-Way Interactions 5 62.313 9.49% 62.313 12.463 1.51 0.389
A*B 1 52.563 8.01% 52.563 52.563 6.39 0.086
A*C 1 3.063 0.47% 3.063 3.063 0.37 0.585
A*D 1 1.562 0.24% 1.563 1.563 0.19 0.692
B*C 1 0.063 0.01% 0.063 0.063 0.01 0.936
B*D 1 5.062 0.77% 5.062 5.062 0.62 0.490
3-Way Interactions 2 162.125 24.70% 162.125 81.063 9.85 0.048
A*B*C 1 76.563 11.66% 76.563 76.563 9.30 0.055
A*B*D 1 85.563 13.03% 85.563 85.563 10.40 0.048
Error 3 24.687 3.76% 24.687 8.229
Total 15 656.438 100.00%
Regression Equation in Uncoded Units
Response = 82.188 - 4.063 A - 0.938 B - 2.313 C + 1.438 D + 1.813 A*B + 0.438 A*C - 0.312 A*D
+ 0.063 B*C + 0.562 B*D - 2.188 A*B*C + 2.313 A*B*D
Alias Structure
Factor Name
A A
B B
Aliases : I, Block 1 – ABCD, A, B, C, D, AB, AC, AD, BC, BD, ABC, ABD
design with I=ABCD instead. Set up the design and select the responses for the runs from the full
factorial data. Analyze the data and draw conclusions. Compare your findings with those from full
factorial in a) and the confounded in b).
Answer: Only A, C, ABD and BCD are not significant with other main effects and other
interactions significant with their confounding terms. See Aliases: I+ABCD, A+BCD, D + ABC,
AB + CD, AD +BC for this
Coded Coefficients
Term Effect Coef SE Coef 95% CI T-Value P-Value VIF
Constant 85.000 0.500 (82.849, 87.151) 170.00 0.000
A -1.000 -0.500 0.500 (-2.651, 1.651) -1.00 0.423 1.00
B 4.000 2.000 0.500 (-0.151, 4.151) 4.00 0.057 1.00
D -12.000 -6.000 0.500 (-8.151, -3.849) -12.00 0.007 1.00
A*B -5.000 -2.500 0.500 (-4.651, -0.349) -5.00 0.038 1.00
A*D 6.000 3.000 0.500 (0.849, 5.151) 6.00 0.027 1.00
Analysis of Variance
Source DF Seq SS Contribution Adj SS Adj MS F-Value P-Value
Model 5 444.000 99.11% 444.000 88.800 44.40 0.022
Linear 3 322.000 71.87% 322.000 107.333 53.67 0.018
A 1 2.000 0.45% 2.000 2.000 1.00 0.423
B 1 32.000 7.14% 32.000 32.000 16.00 0.057
D 1 288.000 64.29% 288.000 288.000 144.00 0.007
2-Way Interactions 2 122.000 27.23% 122.000 61.000 30.50 0.032
A*B 1 50.000 11.16% 50.000 50.000 25.00 0.038
A*D 1 72.000 16.07% 72.000 72.000 36.00 0.027
Error 2 4.000 0.89% 4.000 2.000
Total 7 448.000 100.00%
Regression Equation in Uncoded Units
Response = 85.000 - 0.500 A + 2.000 B - 6.000 D - 2.500 A*B + 3.000 A*D
Alias Structure
Factor Name
A A
B B