MO Senate GOP Primary Memo

CONFIDENTIAL MEMORANDUM
TO: GREITENS FOR SENATE
FROM: TONY FABRIZIO, DAVID LEE, & TRAVIS TUNIS
RE: DESPITE GROWING FIELD GREITENS STILL LEADS GOP PRIMARY BY 2

TO 1, OPPOSITION TO MCCONNELL LEADERSHIP INCREASES HIS
ALREADY SOLID LEAD
DATE: OCTOBER 6, 2021
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates recently completed a survey of N=400 likely 2022 Republican
primary voters (RPV) in Missouri. The data shows that Governor Eric Greitens holds a very
substantial lead over his Republican opponents in the U.S. Senate primary. Furthermore, when
voters learn of his pledge to vote against re-electing Sen. Mitch McConnell as Senate GOP
Leader, Greitens further increases his lead over the rest of the field.
Missouri GOP Primary Voters are Strongly Positive Towards President Trump, while very
mixed on Sen. McConnell
An overwhelming 83% of Missouri RPV have a favorable opinion of Donald Trump, including
67% who have a very favorable opinion. On top of that, an even greater 88% approve of the job
he did as President, with 73% strongly approving. In sharp contrast, Missouri RPV are mixed on
Mitch McConnell – 46% favorable/42% unfavorable – and his positive image is weak, as only
13% view McConnell very favorably.
Now I am going to read you a list of names of

people in the news. Will you please tell me if you
have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of each
person? If you have no opinion or have never
heard of the person, just say so. Do you approve or disapprove of the
job Donald Trump did as President?
Donald Mitch
TOTAL APPROVE 88
Trump McConnell
TOTAL FAVORABLE 83 46 TOTAL DISAPPROVE 11
TOTAL UNFAVORABLE 16 42 Strongly approve 73
Very Favorable 67 13 Somewhat approve 16
Somewhat Favorable 16 33 Somewhat disapprove 3
Somewhat Unfavorable 5 18 Strongly disapprove 8
Very Unfavorable 10 24 DK/Refused (DO NOT READ) 1
No Opinion 1 10
Never Heard Of <1 2
Greitens’ Pledge to Vote Against McConnell as Senate GOP Leader Increases his Lead to
better than 3 to 1 over Nearest Competitor
Eric Greitens’ pledge to remove Mitch McConnell as the Republican Leader in the U.S. Senate
propels the former Governor’s lead in the GOP primary even higher. His share of the vote jumps
up from 36% to 44%, and his lead over Eric Schmitt goes from +19 to +30.
If you knew that Eric Greitens pledged to vote to REMOVE

Mitch McConnell as Republican Leader in the U.S. Senate and
the Republican primary for U.S. Senate were held today, which
ONE of the following candidates would you vote for?
Initial Final
Eric Greitens 36 44
Eric Schmitt 17 14
Vicky Hartzler 10 10
Billy Long 6 4
Mark McCloskey 4 3
Ronald Deets 1 1
John Brinkmann 0 0
Deshon Porter 0 <1
Undecided 25 24
Greitens Leads Growing GOP Field by more than by 2-to-1
Greitens holds a very healthy lead over his competitors, receiving more than double the vote of
his closest challenger. Greitens’ 36%, in a crowded field, will be extremely difficult to surpass
with only 25% undecided.
If the Republican primary election

for U.S. Senate were held today
which of the following candidates
would you vote for?
Eric Greitens 36
Eric Schmitt 17
Vicky Hartzler 10
Billy Long 6
Mark McCloskey 4
Ronald Deets 1
John Brinkmann 0
Deshon Porter 0
Undecided 25
METHODOLOGY STATEMENT: Fabrizio, Lee & Associates conducted a statewide survey of
400 likely Republican primary voters from October 3-5, 2021 in Missouri. The interviews were
split 35% cell phone/35% SMS to web/30% landline phone, using live operators for the cell
phone and landline phone portions. Geography was matched to past voter turnout in recent
Republican primary elections. Gender, age, party affiliation, education, and race/ethnicity were
matched to demographic profiles of likely voters based on the voter file data, exit polls, and the
AP/Fox News VoteCast. Respondents were randomly selected from lists of known primary
voters. The margin of error at the 95% confidence interval for 400 voters is ±4.9%.
KEY DEMOGRAPHICS
Party Affiliation Education
Republican 79% Less than high school <1%

Democrat 4% High school graduate 19%
Independent 14%
Other (SPECIFY: ____) 2% Technical or vocational school
3%
DK/Refused (DO NOT READ) 1% graduate
Some college 28%
Race/Ethnicity College graduate with Associates
9%
or 2 year degree
White 93% College graduate with a
African American/Black 2% 27%
Bachelors or 4 year degree
Latino/Hispanic 2% Post-graduate degree 13%
Asian American 1%
Other (DO NOT READ) 2% DK/Refused (DO NOT READ) 0%
DK/Refused (DO NOT READ) 1%
DMA
Age
St. Louis 32%
18-34 16% Kansas City 21%
35-44 14% Springfield 21%
45-54 21% Columbia 10%
55-64 23% Cape Girardeau 6%
65+ 26% Joplin 5%
Refused (DO NOT READ) 1% Rest of Missouri 6%
Gender
MALE 53%
FEMALE 47%
Female, working outside the 27%
home
Female, homemaker 15%
Female/Refused (DO NOT READ) 5%

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Who is leading in the Republican primary for US Senate in Missouri?

What is the sentiment among likely Republican primary voters towards Donald Trump and Mitch McConnell?

CONFIDENTIAL MEMORANDUM

TO: GREITENS FOR SENATE

FROM: TONY FABRIZIO, DAVID LEE, & TRAVIS TUNIS

RE: DESPITE GROWING FIELD GREITENS STILL LEADS GOP PRIMARY BY 2

DATE: OCTOBER 6, 2021

Now I am going to read you a list of names of

If you knew that Eric Greitens pledged to vote to REMOVE

Greitens Leads Growing GOP Field by more than by 2-to-1

If the Republican primary election

Party Affiliation Education

Republican 79% Less than high school <1%

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