Ferrari IPO Case Study - VF
Ferrari IPO Case Study - VF
Ferrari IPO Case Study - VF
Ferrari
US$982 million Initial Public Offering
UBS as Sole Global Coordinator and Lead Left Bookrunner
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Today's agenda
Key achievements
Post IPO
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Ferrari at a glance
• One of the world’s most valuable and powerful brands1, underpinned by a rich history
• The longest running and most successful team in the Formula 1 history,
with 15 Drivers and 16 Constructors World titles
• Serving a loyal and growing customer base, with 7,664 vehicles shipped in 2015
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V8
€2-3million (c.73%)
Notes: Prices refer to indicative retail price including VAT (22%) in Italy but excluding personalization. Product range updated as at IPO
1 458 Italia to be phased out in 2015 and to be replaced by 488 GTB
2 458 Spider to be phased out in 2015 and to be replaced by 488 Spider
3 The XX Program is used to test advanced solutions and innovations by providing a selected group of clients the opportunity to drive cars with superior power and performance
4 Based on 2014 shipments
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Historical performance
(k)
1,524 1,447
1,000 2.0
(%)
500 395
278 328
10.0
250 0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0%
0 0.0 Total: 7,664 cars
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Adj. EBITDA¹ Adj. EBITDA margin
Source: Company filings
Note:
1 EBITDA Adjusted for extraordinary items
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Automotive Luxury
Automotive or Luxury
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Today's agenda
2 Key achievements
Post IPO
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10.8
6.1
5.7
Median: US$4.7bn 5.1 5.2
4.7 4.8 4.9 4.7
3.9 4.1
3.5 3.6 3.6
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High end luxury European luxury (avg: 10.9x) US luxury Iconic OEM
(avg: 8.5x)
2016E P/E
30.2 28.5 Tot avg (excl. Ferrari): 19.7x
26.8 Tot avg: 7.1x
Key achievements
Cross-business partnerships, a
client focus, flawless execution $982m
and, excellence and integrity - the
formula for success
gross proceeds
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Today's agenda
Key achievements
Post IPO
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1 • F-1 drafting
• Define a solid and
- Areas of concerns, positioning, compelling equity story
equity story and peer group
•
4
• Final price definition • Pricing strategy
Pricing • 1 day
• Shares allocation • Long only / Hedge fund
and aftermarket Oct-15 investors allocation
• First day of trading
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1 Preparation
1. Iconic brand with superior, enduring power, benefitting from a loyal customer base
4. Racing heritage
8. Superior talent
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1 Preparation
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1 Preparation
80%
• A global brand, whose products anyone dreams to own regardless
of class and social extraction
• Unique blend of Italian craftsmanship and advanced technology 70%
"World's Most
Powerful • Only founding Formula 1 team still racing and winning
Brand"1 • Ultimate collection cars, increasing value over time 60%
50%
ROIC2 (%)
• 17 years of resilient growth out of the last 19
40%
• Pricing power / product mix as main drivers of top line growth
• Revenue visibility, with multi-year order book and long-term
Top line sponsorship / TV rights contracts 30%
strength • Core business with plenty of room for growth (e.g.
underpenetrated Asia)
20%
• Further development of unconventional sources of revenues
(licensing, vintage restoration)
10%
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1 Preparation
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1 Preparation
Largest segment of
Size1 €223bn €223bn €223bn €223bn €223bn €223bn €223bn €223bn n.a. €351bn
segment
Fastest growing
Growth2 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% n.a. 10% segment
Slightly below
Growth3 12.6% 3.9% 9.2% 10.9% 10.3% 14.8% 3.0% 5.6% 5.1% 2.2% high-end luxury
Profitability4 36.2% 31.7% 20.7% 18.0% 23.5% 32.0% 19.6% 22.7% 17.1% 27.2% Aligned to peers
Company
Fully comparable
Returns5 69.0% 46.1% 54.2% 29.2% 34.4% 46.5% 37.3% 24.1% 57.2% 46.6% with top peers
1.8% 36.0% 0.2% 40.0% 25.9% 11.9% 21.2% 5.9% 14.6% 25% 30%
4.9% 7.2% 38.7% 36.1% 57.1% 38.9% 12.0%
8
31.3%
7.8%
Balanced geographic
Geographic split with strong
split potential from Asian
45.6% 16.7% 46.0% 13.8% 46.3% 27.7% 33.8% 54.1% 11.6% 71.6% 15% 30%
exposure
25.3% 66.9% 49.2%
Notes:
1 Source: Altagamma 2014 Worldwide Markets Monitor 4 LFY EBITDA margin 7 It includes APAC regions for which sales
2 2013-14 growth - source: Altagamma 2014 Worldwide Markets Monitor 5 ROIC based on latest available FY financials breakdown information is available
3 2014-16 sales CAGR 6 For Ferrari it only includes Europe 8 EMEIA (Europe, Middle East, India and Africa)
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1 Preparation
OpFCF 32.1% 19.0% 21.7% 18.8% 15.5% Higher capex offset by positive
P
Cash flow
Capex+R&D 5.6% 15.3% 6.8% 6.0% 19.7% Ferrari more capital intensive
as % of sales
the industry
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1 Preparation
Key dates
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2 Analyst presentation
• Interactive full-day round table session between top managers and research
analysts, including a Q&A session
• Visit to the Company’s factory
Choreography • "Hot laps" track experience
of the event • 14 participants
– 7 top managers
– 6 research analysts
• Location in line with Company brand identity (Maranello HQ)
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2 Analyst presentation
Primary Secondary
B Bank Metric Metric Bank Equity value (€bn) Implied share price ($)
Bank 1 EV/EBITDA P/E Bank 1 9.2 – 10.0 54.6 – 59.6 Price range:
Bank 2 EV/Sales P/E, DCF Bank 2 8.9 – 10.3 53.0 – 61.2 $48.00–52.00
Analyst research Bank 3 DCF PEG, P/E, EV/EBITDA Bank 3 9.1 – 9.2 54.2 – 54.8 per share
model feedback
Bank 4 EV/EBITDA P/E Bank 4 6.9 – 10.3 41.0 – 61.2
Bank 5 EV/EBIT None Bank 5 8.6 51.3 – 51.3
Bank 6 EV/EBITDA DCF Bank 6 n.a. n.a. EV/EBITDA 2016E
11.2-12.0x
C • Include majority of investors’ valuation views
• Ensure investors will continue to do the work and analyse Ferrari during management roadshow P/E 2016E
•
Lower end Generate early momentum
24.7-26.8x
Price range
Source: UBS, FactSet as of 8-Oct-15, Ferrari initiating coverage reports of IPO consortium banks
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3 Roadshow and bookbuilding
Roadshow overview
Over 500 investors met in 1x1 meetings or group events in 1 week across 8 locations
1x1 Meetings Management team
1 New York Sergio Alessandro 8 San Francisco 7 Los Angeles
Marchionne Gili
Chairman CFO
13 3 1
5 Milan /
4 6 Maranello
2 Baltimore
7
1
1 7
8
2
3
1
5
6
3 Boston 4 London
8 5
Group events
New York Boston London Milan / Los Angeles /
Maranello1 San Francisco
• 2 group lunch • 1 global call • 1 small group breakfast,
• 1 street call • No. of investors: 50+ 1 group lunch • 1 small group breakfast • 1 small group meeting
• No. of investors: 230+ • No. of investors: 150+ (Milan) (LA)
• 1 small group event • 1 group meeting (SF)
(Maranello) • No. of investors: 40+
• No. of investors: 25
Note:
1 Including 2 1x1 meetings held in Maranello pre-roadshow
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4 Pricing and aftermarket
19.8x
19.2x
US$17.6bn
US$17.2bn
Demand and over-subscription level
14.3x
11.3x US$12.8bn
9.1x US$10.1bn
Book covered
within 2 hours
from launch US$8.2bn
6.9x
4.2x US$6.1bn
US$3.8bn
1.3x
US$1.2bn
UBS Wealth Management contributed with c.$2bn demand (c.200% of the offer size)
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4 Pricing and aftermarket
High end luxury European luxury (avg: 10.9x) US luxury Iconic OEM
(avg: 8.5x)
2016E P/E
30.2 28.5 Tot avg (excl. Ferrari): 19.7x
26.8 Tot avg: 7.1x
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4 Pricing and aftermarket
US IPOs over US$200m Key summary stats for US IPOs over US$200m
Deal Aftermarket performance (%)
value Pricing File to Offer to Offer to • 6 of the last 7 IPOs have priced below the range or were withdrawn
Pricing date Issuer (US$m) range offer (%) 1-day current
15/10/2015 Albertsons Companies, Inc 1,600 Withdrawn – – –
prior to pricing
14/10/2015 First Data corp 2,560 Below (15.8) (1.6) (1.2) • 6 of the last 10 IPOs greater than US$200m have broken issue and
06/10/2015 Digicel Group Ltd 1,800 Withdrawn – – – traded down on their first day of trading
06/10/2015 PURE Storage Inc 425 In range 0.0 (5.8) 11.8 • Almost 60% are trading below their IPO price (12 are down more than
30/09/2015 Performance Food Group Co 317 Below (19.1) 1.1 15.5
10% and 5 are down over 30%)
30/09/2015 Surgery Partners Inc 271 Below (22.4) (4.7) 0.8
12/08/2015 Houlihan Lokey 254 Below (8.7) 6.7 5.3
05/08/2015 Planet Fitness Inc 248 In range 6.7 0.0 5.7
04/08/2015
04/08/2015
Sun Run Inc
Amplify Snack Brands Inc
251
270
In range
Above
0.0
20.0
(23.1)
(10.3)
(29.9)
(32.6)
Volatility in the market recently spiked
31/07/2015 TerraForm Global Inc 675 Below (25.0) (6.7) (46.9)
85 80.9
27/07/2015 NantKwest Inc 238 Above 16.3 38.6 (49.4)
Market volatility
21/07/2015 Blue Buffalo Pet Products Inc 778 Above 17.6 36.0 (2.0) 65
24/06/2015 TransUnion 764 In range 2.3 12.9 7.1
45 40.7
24/06/2015 Milacron Holdings Corp 294 In range (4.8) (2.1) (17.4)
24/06/2015 Gener8 Maritime Inc 236 Below (22.2) (6.4) (15.4) 25
18/06/2015 8point3 Energy Partners Inc 420 In range 5.0 (2.4) (37.0) 5
17/06/2015 Univar Inc 886 In range 4.8 15.5 (16.1) Dec-05 Dec-07 Nov-09 Nov-11 Oct-13 Oct-15
17/06/2015 Fitbit Inc 841 Above 33.3 48.4 87.1
10/06/2015 Axovant Sciences Ltd 362 In range 7.1 99.3 (11.3) Volatility
04/06/2015 Evolent Health Inc 225 Above 13.3 10.9 (5.9)
20/05/2015 Press Ganey Holdings Inc 256 Above 8.7 10.0 22.4
19/05/2015 Black Knight Financial Services Inc 507 In range 4.3 10.7 36.1 Recent correction in valuations
14/05/2015 Fortress Transportation 378 Below (15.0) (2.6) (14.1)
15/04/2015 Party City Holdco Inc 428 In range 6.3 21.8 (0.6) 5-Year Avg = 13.8x
18.5 10-Year Avg = 14.0x
S&P 500NTM P/E (x)
15/04/2015 Virtu Financial Inc 361 In range 5.6 16.7 30.0 18.0x
15/04/2015 Etsy Inc 307 In range 6.7 87.5 (31.6) 17.5 17.2x
31/03/2015 GoDaddy Inc 520 Above 11.1 30.8 37.0
16.7x
11/03/2015 Summit Materials Inc 460 In range 0.0 16.5 15.4 Forward P/E on the S&P 500 is down
16.5
11/02/2015 Inovalon Holdings Inc 685 Above 20.0 0.0 (15.7) 7.0% from its peak of 18.0x
22/01/2015 Box Inc 201 Above 16.7 65.9 (3.2)
Average 575 2.5 16.0 (1.9) 15.5
Total Median 378 5.0 10.0 (2.0)
Dec-14 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Oct-15
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Today's agenda
Key achievements
4 Post IPO
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Public 100%
Piero Ferrari Piero Ferrari
shareholders
Ferrari SpA
80%
90% 10% 10% (84.2%) 10%
(5.3%) (10.5%)
Ferrari NV Ferrari NV
100% 100%
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23.0 180
160
120
13.0 100
80
8.0 60
40
3.0 20
Apr-15
Apr-16
Apr-17
Apr-18
Apr-19
Apr-20
Oct-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
Jan-16
Jul-16
Oct-16
Jan-17
Jul-17
Oct-17
Jan-18
Jul-18
Oct-18
Jan-19
Jul-19
Oct-19
Jan-20
Jul-20
Oct-20
FCA S&P500 FCA peers1 Ferrari
Source: FactSet as of 1-Dec-20
Notes:
1 FCA peers include: Ford, GM, PSA Group and Volkswagen
2 Since 21-Feb-20, Covid-19 outbreak
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1YFW
Listing (20-Oct-15), $52.0
200.0 EV/EBITDA
Ferrari 12.0x
High end luxury peers1 17.7x
European luxury peers2 10.9x
150.0
+174% +80%
100.0
1YFW Δ vs.
50.0 Today (15-Nov-21) $258.9 EV/EBITDA Listing
Ferrari 25.3x +13.3x
Ferrari spin-off High end luxury peers1 36.1x +18.4x
3-Jan-16 European luxury peers2 16.2x +5.3x
0.0
Oct-15 Apr-16 Oct-16 Apr-17 Oct-17 Apr-18 Oct-18 Apr-19 Oct-19 Apr-20 Oct-20 Apr-21 Oct-21
1
Ferrari High end luxury peers European luxury peers 2
Source: FactSet as of 15-Nov-21
Notes:
1 High end luxury peers include: Hermès
2 European luxury peers include: Brunello Cucinelli, Salvatore Ferragamo, Richemont, Moncler, LVMH, Prada and Burberry
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