January, 2018

Envisioning Pathways to 2030:

Megatrends shaping the future of global higher
education and international student mobility
bit.ly/Megatrends2030

Rahul Choudaha
Edwin van Rest
 A decade ago, the world was not prepared for the widespread impact of the global financial recession. Gradually, the operating focus of higher
education sector in many high-income countries around shifted, causing budget-cuts to become a recurring and dominant theme. Yet, at the
same time, the expanding middle-class in emerging countries were keen to gain international experience – thus fueling student mobility.

Now, we are on the cusp of another major transformation. The acceleration of external megatrends - including technological and societal
changes - are expected to push higher education institutions (especially in high-income countries) towards offering more relevant, affordable,
and flexible academic programmes. As a result, universities have an opportunity to overcome enrolment challenges by maximising the potential
of engaging new population through including adult learners (lifelong and online learning) and international students (recruitment and
transnational education).

In this report, we address following broad questions: What are the megatrends shaping the world? How are these megatrends transforming the
future of global higher ed? What are the implications for international student mobility and global engagement strategies?
We articulate our vision for the future of global higher education by synthesising various external reports and data with the perspectives of
higher education leaders from around the world. We propose conceptual frameworks for institutional archetypes of success and for their
global engagement strategies leading up to 2030.

This report is designed for higher education professionals in high-income countries many of whom are facing enrolment growth challenges. We
recognise the diversity within the higher education landscape across and within countries, and, hence, do not claim to offer predictive and
prescriptive findings. The purpose and approach of this report is to encourage higher education institutions to reflect, assess, and discover
alternative pathways for the future leading up to 2030.

We welcome your questions/suggestions/experiences at Rahul@Studyportals.com

Rahul Choudaha, EVP of Global Engagement, Research and Intelligence

Edwin van Rest, CEO and co-founder
About Authors

Suggested Citation for this report: Choudaha, Rahul & Van Rest, Edwin (2018). Envisioning pathways to 2030:
Megatrends shaping the future of global higher education and international student mobility. Studyportals.
2 bit.ly/Megatrends2030
 Executive Summary >> go to this section

Part One

Context of Global Higher Education >> go to this section

Part Two
Megatrends Shaping the World Around Us >> go to this section

Part Three
Implications for Institutional Strategies >> go to this section
Conceptual frameworks and perspectives from global higher education leaders

3
 Megatrends Impact on Global Higher Ed Impact on Int’l Student Mobility

External forces transforming

Quantitative growth in higher Quantitative growth
the world around us:
education enrolment: international student
enrolment:
- Aging world: finding new education
- 332 million by 2030; an increase
and employment opportunities - 6.9 million by 2030; an increase of
of 56% or 120 million students
- Labour market shifts: increasing 51% or 2.3 million students from
from
automation to affect global workforce 2015.
2015.
- Skills mismatch: gap between
what employers demand vs. what Qualitative shift in the nature Qualitative shift in the nature
education provides of demand:
of demand:
- Rapid urbanisation: shift towards - Regional destinations growing more
- Advancement of lifelong learning
cities in search of jobs and career attractive
- Adoption of online/blended learning.
advancement - Innovation and expansion of
- Unbundling of credentials.
- Stricter immigration policies: more transnational models.
- Orientation for career outcomes.
barriers for mobility to high-income - Surge of English-taught programmes
- Specialisation/consolidation
destinations. in new destinations.
of institutions.
- Economic shifts: dependence on - Higher ambitions of and investments
emerging markets for economic Higher education institutions ought to for world-class universities.
growth. enhance relevance, affordability, and - Accelerated growth of global, multi-
- Capacity imbalance: demand in flexibility of academic offerings to institutional networks.
emerging economies vs. supply in catch up with the quantitative growth
developed economies and qualitative shift in demand. Higher education institutions should

- Budget pressures: higher education complement traditional mobility with

is facing decline in public funding innovation in programme offerings

and delivery methods.
4
 Reconciling the mismatch between enrolment demand and
supply requires attracting and engaging a new population

- Globally by 2030, higher education enrolment will grow in diverse ways within and across countries1

- Megatrends will compel institutions (especially in high-income countries 2) to offer more relevant, affordable, and flexible
academic programmes to catch up with the quantitative growth, and qualitative shift, in the demand

- Lower- and middle-income countries will see the higher education demand from the traditional college-age population
grow larger relative to the supply of institutions

- High-income countries will face stagnant enrolment unless they expand their pool to include the non-traditional
domestic population (age over 24) through lifelong, online, or blended learning

- High-income countries are also capable of reaching underserved (or unserved) students in lower- and middle-income
countries. Some strategies include: transnational education, and recruiting international students to campuses

- Institutional archetypes of success and global engagement strategies proposed in this report offer alternative pathways
for institutions leading up to 2030

1. For example, while overall U.S. population for 2030 is projected to increase, population under 18 will decrease by
2 percent. By 2030, Texas and Florida will experience much higher growth than Illinois and Maine. (US Census)
2. Income classification by World Bank

5
By 2030, an estimated increase of nearly 120 million students in higher
education and 2.3 million internationally mobile students

World Population
Higher Education Enrolment International Student Enrolment
8,551,199
332,240
7,383,009 6,869

212,669
4,538

2015 2030 2015 2030 2015 2030

Change Change
Change
1,168,190 or 16% 2,331 or
119,571 or 56%
51%

All numbers in thousands

Source: UNESCO Institute of Statistics
6
 Lifelong learning potential in high-income countries

4.3 million
A one percent annual increase number of non-traditional students
(age over 24) between 2015-2030 will translate into 4.3 m. more
enrolled students in 15 high-income countries

Source: Authors’ analysis based on data of 15 high-income countries—United States, United Kingdom, Australia,
France, Germany, Canada, Japan, Italy, Netherlands, Austria, Belgium, Korea, Switzerland, New Zealand, Spain
— in the order of number of international student enrolment. Total enrolment in these 15 countries grew by 1%
between 2014 and 2015. They enrol 63% of all globally mobile students and contribute to 55% of world’s GDP.

7
 International student enrolment potential in high-income countries

412,000
A one percent annual increase in international student
enrolment between 2015-2030 will translate to 412,000 more
students in 15 high-income countries

Source: Authors’ analysis based on data of 15 high-income countries—United States, United Kingdom, Australia,
France, Germany, Canada, Japan, Italy, Netherlands, Austria, Belgium, Korea, Switzerland, New Zealand, Spain
— in the order of number of international student enrolment. Total enrolment in these 15 countries grew by 1%
between 2014 and 2015. They enrol 63% of all globally mobile students and contribute to 55% of world’s GDP.

8
 Institutional archetypes of success

1. Niche Research Institute: Knowledge and curriculum generator; a focus on being ‘the world’s best’ in a particular
discipline, ideally tied to industry hubs

2. Elite, Comprehensive University: Interdisciplinary knowledge generator. Shrinking opportunities for these
institutions in the world; have increasingly had to specialise and become a sub-set of (1)

3. ‘Club HigherEd’: Curriculum consumer – focus on student experience (mentoring, facilities)

4. Scalable Digital University: Curriculum consumer – focus on flexibility, learning platforms, (automated) support,
improved access

5. Professional Learning Institute: Curriculum consumer – focus on career advancement value, strong ties with
industry

University networks as well as interregional/- national universities expected to grow

9
 The Pyramid of Higher Ed: Market diversifying and segmenting due
to multi-dimensional barriers to access

Exclusivity High Cost Selective Full-time On-campus

Access Low Cost Inclusive Part-time Online

10
 The Future Pyramid of Higher Ed will expand
access via new models of learning

More exclusivity at the top

2015 due to global competition 2030
and consolidation

213 million
332 million
enrolment
projected enrolment
Larger participation
rate, larger middle
~1 billion class, lifelong learning
people with
need,
no access (yet)
Opportunity for new
models/modes of learning to
increase access beyond
traditional thresholds
11
Conceptual framework of
institutional global engagement
strategies mapping solutions Challengers Innovators
with needs
English-taught programmes Lifelong learning,

New
- Defenders: Familiar
in Asia/Europe unbundling and networks
programmes delivered in

Problems/Needs
English-speaking countries
Regional mobility
through student mobility Programme innovation

- Adapters: Familiar
programmes delivered
through new capabilities of
online, blended, and
transnational models
Defenders Adapters
Familiar
- Innovators: New Programmes in English- Online, blended, and
programmes delivered speaking countries transnational education
through new capabilities of
lifelong learning, Programme mobility
Student mobility
unbundling and networks

- Challengers: Familiar
English-taught programmes Familiar New
delivered in new
destinations in Asia/Europe
Solutions/Approaches

Choudaha, Rahul & van Rest, Edwin (2018). Envisioning pathways to

2030:
Megatrends shaping the future of global higher education and international student mobility. Studyportals
12
 Webinar
Envisioning Pathways to 2030: Megatrends Shaping The Future Of
Global Higher Education and International Student Mobility

bit.ly/Megatrends2030

David Finegold
Fernando León Garcia Wendy Purcell Rahul Choudaha
President
President Emeritus President & VC EVP of Global Engagement
Chatham University
CETYS University Plymouth University Studyportals
System

13
 Webinar
The Innovation Imperative for a Globally
Relevant and Impactful University
bit.ly/GlobalEdLead

Ann Buller
Ashish K. Vaidya Elizabeth J. Stroble Rahul Choudaha
President
Interim President President EVP of Global Engagement
Centennial College
St. Cloud State Webster University Studyportals
University
 Studyportals at a Glance
Mission: Empowering the world to choose education

9 Portals
28+ million 150,000 programmes 370,000 international 3,050+ 180+ employees
unique users from institutions in student enrolments Participating 35 nationalities
last 12 months 120 countries (2017) institutions

Boston | Bucharest | Chicago | Colombo | Eindhoven (HQ) | Manchester | Melbourne | San Francisco | Stockholm

15
 Rahul Choudaha is Executive Vice President of Global
Edwin van Rest is the CEO and co-founder of
Engagement, Research and Intelligence at
Studyportals. He is a grateful benefactor of international
Studyportals. Operating out of San Francisco Bay
education and is driven by the mission of making
Area, Choudaha advances Studyportals’ strategic
education choice transparent, globally. As a co-founder,
engagement with higher education institutions,
he has led Studyportals to an organisation of nearly 200
professional associations and government bodies on
professionals around the world, serving 30m student
the foundations of research and intelligence. He has
users annually and with 3,050+ participating universities.
presented over 100 sessions at professional
He is an elected member of the General Council of EAIE:
conferences and has been frequently quoted in global
European Association for International Education. Edwin
media on international higher education trends with a
earned Industrial Engineering and Management Science
focus on student mobility and enrolment strategies.
from Eindhoven University of Technology. As part of his
Choudaha holds a doctorate in higher education
master´s degree he spent one year at Osaka University in
administration from University of Denver.
Japan.

16
Part One

Context of
Global Higher
Education

<<go back
17
Growth in
- 207 million students enrolled in higher education in 2014
tertiary - Between 2000 and 2014:
enrolment
- Higher education enrolment more than doubled, rising from 100 million to 207 million
- Global gross enrolment ratio increased from 19% to 34%
- 30% of all global higher education enrolments in private institutions

*higher education enrolment is defined as a percentage of population between 19-23 years

Source: UNESCO (2017) Six ways to ensure higher education leaves no one behind
18
 Tertiary Enrolment by Country Income
• Tertiary enrolment growth driven by Upper-middle
income countries

• Lower-middle income countries surpassed high income

countries in 2012

3,956 and $12,235 China, Turkey, Russia, Mexico, Malaysia

$12,236 or more UK, US, Australia, Canada, Japan
$1,006 and $3,955 India, Philippines, Vietnam, Sri Lanka
$1,005 or less Nepal, Afghanistan

World Bank Regions (GNI per capita)

19 Source: Authors’ analysis of data from UNESCO Institute of Statistics

 Total internationally mobile students
(in thousands)
• Almost 50% growth in internationally-mobile
students between 2007-2015

4.607
• Nearly three-quarters of internationally-mobile
students are studying in “developed” countries*

3.504

3.103

2.441

2007 2015 2007 2015

World Developed Countries

Source: Authors’ analysis of data from UNESCO Institute of Statistics

20 * Based on Millennium Development Indicators: World and regional groupings
 Nation’s capacity to and (emphasis on) enrolling
international students differs by level of education

Total tertiary education Bachelor’s or equivalent Master’s or equivalent Doctorate or equivalent

International student enrolment as a percentage of total tertiary education (2015)

Source: OECD (2017) Education at a Glance

21
Concentration by
- International students account for 5.6% of total tertiary institution enrolment:
field of studies
- About one-third in STEM fields of study
- 28% in business, administration and law

Source: OECD (2017) Education at a Glance

Concentration by
- Students from Asia form the largest group of international students enrolled in OECD
source countries tertiary education programs at all levels (1.56 million in 2015):

- Of these, 612,000 come from China.

- Three-quarters of Asian students culminate in three countries: the United States
(44%), Australia (16%) and the United Kingdom (15%).
- The second major region of origin of international students is Europe, with
782,000 European students crossing borders for the purpose of studying.
European students prefer to circulate within Europe: 82% of them enrol in
tertiary studies in another European country.
 Transnational
- TNE is often defined as the ‘provision of education for students based in a country other
education: Mobility than the one in which the awarding institution is located.’
of programmes Distance/online learning

...with local support

...with no local support

Blended

Local delivery partnership

Double dual, or multiple degree

Franchised programme

Joint Degree

‘Top-up’ programme

Validation or ‘quality assurance’ programme

Physical presence

Branch campus

Flying faculty or ‘outreach’

Study centre
24 Source: HEGlobal (2016) The Scale and Scope of UK Higher Education Transnational
Education
 Growth of English-taught Programmes in non-English speaking countries

English-taught Bachelor’s (ETBs)

constitute 27% of the total number of
English-taught programmes offered at
Master’s and Bachelor’s level in Europe

Source: Sandström, Anna-Malin & Neghina,

Carmen (2017). English-taught bachelor’s
programmes: Internationalising European
higher education. European Association for
International Education (EAIE) and
StudyPortals

ETBs ETMs

25
Rise in promoting - Governments and universities have incorporated the logic of

World-class University competitive advantage within their higher education and research
landscapes. For example, Japan, Russia, Vietnam, France, China and
ambitions in emerging over 30 other countries have pursued excellence initiatives.

countries
- The importance of growing the number of international students and
bolstering 'excellence' in global research centres are key parts of
government policy; the correlation of these factors alongside global
rankings has not been accidental.

Source: Hazelkorn E (2017) Global science, national research, and the question
of university rankings, Nature.com
Summary - Globally, higher education enrolment has seen a growing trajectory. However, the
bulk of this growth is driven by middle-income countries. In the past few years, high-
income
countries, by contrast, have experienced a decline/stagnancy in enrolment.

- The number of internationally-mobile students has been growing steadily, but still
forms a smaller proportion of total enrolment within tertiary programs. A majority of
internationally-mobile students are enrolled in high-income countries. In general,
international students more likely come from Asia, enrolling in Master’s- and doctorate-
level, career-oriented fields (STEM, business, administration and law).

- Proliferation of English-taught programmes in Europe, the ambitions of world-class

universities in emerging countries, and evolution of transnational education models will
shift the nature and direction of internationally-mobile students.

- External global megatrends will further catalyse changes.

Part Two

Megatrends Shaping
the World Around
Us
<<go back
28
 Megatrend: a long-term, transformational process with
global reach, broad scope, and a dramatic impact
( John Naisbitt, 1982)

29
8 Megatrends 1 - Aging world: finding new opportunities of education and employment

2 - Labour market shifts: increasing automation to affect global workforce

3 - Skills mismatch: gap between what employers demand vs. what education provides

4 - Rapid urbanisation: shift towards cities in search of jobs and career advancement

5 - Stricter immigration policies: more barriers for mobility to high-income destinations.

6 - Economic shifts: dependence on emerging markets for economic growth.

7 - Capacity imbalance: demand in emerging economies vs. supply in developed economies

8 - Budget pressures: higher education is facing decline in public funding

 Aging world: finding new opportunities of education and employment

Eighty-two percent of growth in population between 2015-2030 will be driven by people aged 35 and over

997
64+
612

1,334
50-64
1,038

1,713
35-49
1,443

1,820
20-34
1,766

2,686
0-19
2,524

2030 2015

All numbers in thousands

Source: Employment and social protection in the new demographic context. ILO.
31
 Labour market shifts: increasing automation to affect global workforce
Number of workers keen to advance beyond current occupation to adapt to changing job opportunities, 2016-30

Midpoint automation

Additional form rapid automation adoption (each block = 1 million workers)

Source: McKinsey (2017) What the future of work will mean for jobs, skills, and wages

32
Skills mismatch: gap between what employers demand
vs. what education provides

7/10
people are currently in jobs where
the future of their career,
profession, or industry is
uncertain.

Source: Pearson and Nesta (2017) The Future of Skills: Employment in 2030
33
 Rapid urbanisation: demographic shift towards cities
in search of jobs and career advancement

41 CITIES

63 CITIES
28 CITIES

43 CITIES
558 CITIES
Megacities of 10 million or more
417 CITIES Large cities of 5 to 10 million
731 CITIES Medium-sized cities of 1 to 5 million
525 CITIES
Cities of 500 000 to 1 million

Urban areas smaller than 500 000

2014 2030

Source: United Nations (2014) World Urbanisation Prospects

34
Stricter immigration policies: more barriers for mobility to high-income destinations

In 2015, 3.3% of the world’s

While the share of immigrants
population are living outside their
coming from developing countries
country of birth
stayed the same…

1995 2015

That’s 79% 80%

245M
immigrants More migrants are heading to
high-income destinations

worldwide 1995 2015

Refugees represent less than 36% 51%

10% of total migrants
 Source: Perspectives on Global Development (2017) OECD
35
 Economic shifts: dependence on emerging markets for economic growth

Middle class in 2010 and forecast for 2030

EU-27
CIS
UNITED STATES

JAPAN
CHINA

MENA

SSA INDIA
LATAM

ASIA EX CIJ

ROW

32.000bn

29.000bn

100.000bn 2030
2010

Source: Global Trends to 2030. Europa

36
 Capacity imbalance: demand in emerging
economies vs. supply in developed economies

Ratio of projected population in 2030

Ratio of total population in 2030 compared to 2015

to estimated population in 2015 by

the level of gross national income per
capita in 2014, 183 countries or areas

Gross National Income per capita (logarithmic scale)

Source: United Nations, 2015

37
 Budget pressures: higher education is facing
decline in public funding

Tertiary Education
% of GDP

OECD average

Private expenditure on educational institutions Source: OECD (2017) Education at a Glance

Public expenditure on educational institutions

38
8 Megatrends While there are a few other external forces in play, we identify eight megatrends which are likely to interact in

a manner to transform the future of global higher education and international student mobility.

The world is getting older which will encourage institutions to find new ways to educating and employing the

aging population throughout their career and beyond. Increasing pace of automation and skills mismatch will

create new expectations for market-relevant skills and retraining of talent. Rapid urbanisation will result in more

people moving towards cities which in turn will drive demand for accessible and flexible learning models. Despite

demographic challenges, stricter immigration policies in high-income countries may make it more difficult for

finding migration pathways. Economic growth in emerging markets will drive demand for expanding access to

higher education. It will also fuel aspirations and capacities to afford studying abroad. Imbalance in demand for

higher education among youth population in emerging economies and large supply of institutions in high-income

economies will provide opportunities for engaging through international recruitment and transnational

education. Public defunding of higher education will continue with increasing expectations of self-funding

through enrolment growth and academic innovation.

In sum, these megatrends will disrupt the higher education sector (especially in high-income countries) as well

as international student mobility patterns. Next, we present perspectives of higher education leaders, along with

our conceptual framework of institutional archetypes of success and their global engagement strategies for

institutional leaders to identify their pathways for growth and sustainability.

 Part Three

Implications for
Institutional
Strategies
<<go back

40
By 2030, an estimated increase of nearly 120 million students in higher
education and 2.3 million internationally mobile students

World Population
Higher Education Enrolment International Student Enrolment
8,551,199
332,240
7,383,009 6,869

212,669
4,538

2015 2030 2015 2030 2015 2030

Change Change
Change
1,168,190 or 16% 2,331 or
119,571 or 56%
51%

All numbers in thousands

Source: UNESCO Institute of Statistics
41
 163 million
More 25-34 year-olds with a tertiary degree in
2030 compared those in to 2013

Source: OECD (2015) How is the global talent pool changing (2013, 2030)

42
 Growth in tertiary degree attainment to
be driven by emerging countries

Share of 25-34 year-olds with a tertiary degree across OECD and G20 countries (2013, 2030)

2013 2030
137 million 300 million
25-34 year-olds with tertiary education 25-34 year-olds with tertiary education

Source: OECD (2015) How is the global talent pool changing?

43
 75%
of the global STEM graduates will be in
BRIICS countries, compared to 8% in the US
and 4% in Europe by 2030

BRIICS: Brazil, Russia, India, Indonesia, China, South Africa

Source: OECD (2015) How is the global talent pool changing (2013, 2030)?

44
Lifelong learning
The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development is an inter-governmental
gains traction
commitment and “a plan of action for people, planet and prosperity.”

UNESCO’s Sustainable Development Goal 4 (SDG4) : Quality

Education- “Ensure inclusive and equitable quality education and

promote lifelong learning opportunities for all.”

“What is also new to SDG4 is the focus on the relevance of

learning outcomes both for the world of work, as well as for

citizenship in a global and interconnected world.”

Source: Unpacking Sustainable Development Goal 4: Education 2030, UNESCO

45
 Lifelong learning potential in high-income countries

4.3 million
A one percent annual increase number of non-traditional students
(age over 24) between 2015-2030 will translate into 4.3 m. more
enrolled students in 15 high-income countries

Source: Authors’ analysis based on data of 15 high-income countries—United States, United Kingdom, Australia,
France, Germany, Canada, Japan, Italy, Netherlands, Austria, Belgium, Korea, Switzerland, New Zealand, Spain
— in the order of number of international student enrolment. Total enrolment in these 15 countries grew by 1%
between 2014 and 2015. They enrol 63% of all globally mobile students and contribute to 55% of world’s GDP.

46
 Lifelong learning potential in emerging markets

3.6 million
A one percent annual increase in enrolment of non-traditional
students (age over 24) between 2015-2030 will translate to 3.6 m.
more students in six emerging countries (BRIICS)

Source: Authors’ analysis based on data of six BRIICS countries—Brazil, Russia,

India, Indonesia, China, South Africa. These six countries enrol 10% of all
globally mobile students and contribute to 24% of world’s GDP.

47
 International student enrolment potential in high-income countries

412,000
A one percent annual increase in international student
enrolment between 2015-2030 will translate to 412,000 more
students in 15 high-income countries

Source: Authors’ analysis based on data of 15 high-income countries—United States, United Kingdom, Australia,
France, Germany, Canada, Japan, Italy, Netherlands, Austria, Belgium, Korea, Switzerland, New Zealand, Spain
— in the order of number of international student enrolment. Total enrolment in these 15 countries grew by 1%
between 2014 and 2015. They enrol 63% of all globally mobile students and contribute to 55% of world’s GDP.

48
 International student enrolment potential in emerging countries

65,000
A one percent annual increase in international student
enrolment between 2015-2030 will translate to 65,000
more students in six emerging countries by 2030

Source: Authors’ analysis based on data of six BRIICS countries—Brazil, Russia,

India, Indonesia, China, South Africa. These six countries enrol 10% of all
globally mobile students and contribute to 24% of world’s GDP.

49
 Institutional archetypes of success

1. Niche Research Institute: Knowledge and curriculum generator; a focus on being ‘the world’s best’ in a particular
discipline, ideally tied to industry hubs

2. Elite, Comprehensive University: Interdisciplinary knowledge generator. Shrinking opportunities for these
institutions in the world; have increasingly had to specialise and become a sub-set of (1)

3. ‘Club HigherEd’: Curriculum consumer – focus on student experience (mentoring, facilities)

4. Scalable Digital University: Curriculum consumer – focus on flexibility, learning platforms, (automated) support,
improved access

5. Professional Learning Institute: Curriculum consumer – focus on career advancement value, strong ties with
industry

University networks as well as interregional/- national universities expected to grow

50
 <<go back

The Pyramid of Higher Ed: Market diversifying and segmenting due

to multi-dimensional barriers to access

Exclusivity High Cost Selective Full-time On-campus

Access Low Cost Inclusive Part-time Online

51
 The Future Pyramid of Higher Ed will expand
access via new models of learning

More exclusivity at the top

2015 due to global competition 2030
and consolidation

213 million
332 million
enrolment
projected enrolment
Larger participation
rate, larger middle
~1 billion class, lifelong learning
people with
need,
no access (yet)
Opportunity for new
models/modes of learning to
increase access beyond
traditional thresholds
52
 <<go back

Conceptual framework of
institutional global engagement
strategies mapping solutions Challengers Innovators
with needs
English-taught programmes Lifelong learning,

New
- Defenders: Familiar
in Asia/Europe unbundling and networks
programmes delivered in

Problems/Needs
English-speaking countries
Regional mobility
through student mobility Programme innovation

- Adapters: Familiar
programmes delivered
through new capabilities of
online, blended, and
transnational models
Defenders Adapters
Familiar
- Innovators: New Programmes in English- Online, blended, and
programmes delivered speaking countries transnational education
through new capabilities of
lifelong learning, Programme mobility
Student mobility
unbundling and networks

- Challengers: Familiar
English-taught programmes Familiar New
delivered in new
destinations in Asia/Europe
Solutions/Approaches

Choudaha, Rahul & van Rest, Edwin (2018). Envisioning pathways to

2030:
Megatrends shaping the future of global higher education and international student mobility. Studyportals
53
 Perspectives of Global Higher Education Leaders

This section shares viewpoints of higher education leaders from around the world on the future higher education and implications for institutional strategies.
View are personal. Listed in the order of first name.

<<go back

54
 Anant Agarwal
Founder and CEO, edX

Modular online education will break down boundaries and change the

delivery of education - whether students learn online before going to

campus, online while on campus, continue their education online after a

campus education, or learn fully online - student mobility patterns will

change, and innovative higher education institutions will see a new global

reach. This unbundled approach enabled by modular credentials and credit

exchanges will also foster lifelong learning habits, keeping our workforce

nimble and eager to learn new skills on the job.

55
 Bill Barke
Chairman, Studyportals North America Advisory Board

Former Chairman of Pearson Higher Education North America

The widening mismatch between what employers demand and what institutions

supply is one of the key megatrends to watch. The mismatch is already disrupting

traditional models of higher education in career settings. The traditional mode of

preparing students for business careers—the MBA—is declining in favor of a more

data driven menu of certificate programmes, particularly in business analytics and

data science. The decline in public funding will accelerate public/private

partnerships in the online programme management space which will also have

significant opportunities for enrolling global student populations.

56
 Bradley Farnsworth
Vice President, Center for Internationalization and Global Engagement

American Council on Education

Rising incomes in developing countries and a greater concentration of people and

jobs in urban areas will drive demand for higher education. Rising incomes will

stimulate more demand for conventional international mobility, but they will also

create promising opportunities for international partnerships that deliver quality

instruction locally or regionally. We should anticipate the emergence of new modes

of delivery, and in some cases entirely new types of institutions.

57
 David Finegold
President, Chatham University

After many decades of continuous growth of degrees at the expense of

intermediate, middle-level skills, we may see some reversal, as technical and skilled

manual work – i.e. electricians, plumbers, chefs – will be among the hardest to

automate, while many degree-level occupations – e.g. law, accounting, routine

computer programming, journalism, and data processing – are already being

disrupted. Higher education institutions will need to prepare their students to be

entrepreneurial and resilient, with the ability to continue to learn and reinvent

themselves and their careers multiple times in their lives.

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 Elizabeth J. Stroble
President, Webster University

The convergence of external megatrends will require imaginative leadership and new

kinds of partnerships for global higher education to thrive. For example, the combined

effects of economic shifts, the rise of nationalism, capacity imbalance, and budget

pressures contribute simultaneously to a heightened need for global higher education

solutions that bring education to nations’ and students’ needs and increased barriers

to enacting such solutions on the part of institutions and nations. Technology-

supported solutions hold promise for optimizing the connections between expertise at

higher education institutions and students in emerging economies.

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 Eva Egron-Polak
Former Secretary General, Senior Fellow of International Association of Universities

It is important to note the unknowns in terms of skills needed. For example, what new

positions and jobs are we educating for? Skills are not the sole outcome of university

education. One would argue that knowledge and critical thinking are even more

important. Higher education institutions must ensure this balance. The youth dividend

of Africa will present new opportunities and challenges for future of higher education.

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 Fernando León García
President, CETYS University System, Mexico

Economic shifts and capacity imbalances are among the trends most likely to impact

developing economies. These will require an improvement in the quality of and

participation rates in higher education across developing countries, whether it is

through their own efforts, cross border partnerships, TNE or new models for capacity

building. Rather than a single predominant institutional model, one is likely to observe

a diversity of models, where at one end of the spectrum there will be institutions with

entirely new models responding to new needs and new markets, while at the other

end we will see institutions that will only make slight changes to remain current and

relevant to their existing models.

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 Gordon Slaven
Managing Director, Slaven Consultancy Services Ltd

Former Head of higher education services, British Council

Work-ready graduates, with appropriate skills for changing global economic

environment, will always be in high demand. Given the capacity and geographic

imbalance between the demand for this kind of education, and the capacity to deliver

it, as well as continued student mobility, it is likely that will be an increase in remote

delivery of education from the global top 1% universities, through technologies, a

variety of local partnerships, and through branch campuses. We are also likely to see

greater numbers of ‘global brands’ incorporating consortia of individual institutions.

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 Huntington D. Lambert
Dean of the Division of Continuing Education and University Extension

Harvard University

For higher education institutions which want to survive and thrive, responding to the

intersection of these megatrends means repackaging courses into 60-year curriculums

to help learners always be ready for their next social, civic or professional challenge. It

is critical that institutions think globally and have our offering available anywhere

anytime at many price points based on human support level included. For all that can

do this and measure every element of their supply chain and outcomes for continuous

improvement, financial and societal success are waiting.

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 Ken Gill
CEO, NCUK- The University Consortium

Increased automation will drive the mismatch of employment skills as the rapid

changes in the workplace will not be matched with the speed at which the

higher education sector can adapt. Emergence of world-class Asian universities

would further undermine the “old west” and a greater flow of students to the

Far East , China in particular. Capacity imbalance would argue for increasing

use of technology and blended learning, creating more TNE joint ventures, and

combining institutions with specialized focus.

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 Steven Kyffin
Pro Vice-Chancellor (Business & Enterprise),
University of Northumbria at Newcastle

The continued rise of the mega-cities and urbanisation, especially in the

emerging world will drive the need for different forms of enabling ‘education’

for all. The Campus of the future will become a creative HUB, where partners

come together. So, not all universities have to be experts in all things.

Universities become nodes within networks of excellence, where the network

hosts the total expertise, which becomes available across the Globe according

to local need and context.

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 Trevor Holmes
VP External & Strategic Affairs, Dublin City University

It is possible to conceive of a higher education supply chain with a broad

variety of mission focused institutions which closely align to a lifelong learning

student profile with the HEI choosing to engage with students at particular

points in their life curve or creating interdisciplinary programmes in selected

areas to support particular cohorts of students across their learning lifetime.

Institutions will have to share resources and utilise emerging technologies like

MOOCs in a more creative fashion, utising globally but assessing locally. This

will require a greater creativity in curriculum and programme development.

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 Wendy Purcell
Professor, Harvard University

Emeritus President & VC, Plymouth University, UK

Higher education would become more differentiated, more distinctive in its

offer (learning tools, programme offer, skills updating etc.) so that student

choice is informed by clarity about the offer and return on investment that in

some case is lifelong while in others is simply a project-long or perhaps job-

long return. We need to see lifetime education as a key trend to rebalancing

the global economy. And, we need to have higher education cultivate thinking,

aliveness and creativity – we are moving beyond content into experience.

While studying overseas will remain a prized experience, growing excellence of

in- country higher education among those countries that today account for high

levels of mobility will result in more growth for master’s, doctorate, short

courses and online degrees than undergraduate degrees.

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 How is your - Conduct programme portfolio reviews for cost and revenue

institution preparing - Improve student employability outcomes

for the potential
- Identify new sources of revenue
impact of
- Offer new lower-cost and shorter duration programmes
megatrends?
- Expand online offerings for global markets

- Develop new curriculum, delivery models, and partnerships

- Deliver lifelong learning and job-focused credentials

- Adapt current forms of learning to unbundling of credentials

- Explore transnational education partnerships

- Recruit international students

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<<go back

Globally, higher education enrolment will grow with wide variations within and across countries. In this report, we have identified a number
of external forces or megatrends that continue to transform the world around us. These megatrends will disrupt the higher education
sector (especially in high-income countries) as well as international student mobility patterns. The fast rate of change, coupled with a high
degree of uncertainty, makes it crucial for institutions to be proactive and adaptive. These megatrends will push institutions, especially in
high-income countries, towards offering more relevant, affordable, and flexible programmes, enabling them to catch up with the
quantitative growth and qualitative shift in the demand.

Perspectives of higher education leaders from around the world, along with our own analysis, confirm that the future of higher education
will look significantly different. Through our conceptual framework of institutional archetypes of success and their global engagement
strategies we offer an opportunity for institutional leaders to reflect, assess, and discover how they would ensure that their institutions
grow and thrive . For example, the continued shift in the demographic, technological, and economic contexts will encourage institutions to
experiment and innovate with new models of blended, online, or lifelong learning. Likewise, institutions need to complement traditional
student mobility with innovation in programme offerings and delivery methods in response to the shifting context of international student
mobility.

While we recognize that not all institutions will neatly fit into our conceptual frameworks, we offer still alternative pathways for institutions
as they design their future leading up to 2030.

We welcome your questions/suggestions/experiences at Rahul@Studyportals.com

Rahul Choudaha, EVP of Global Engagement, Research and Intelligence

Edwin van Rest, CEO and co-founder
About Authors

Suggested Citation for this report: Choudaha, Rahul & Van Rest, Edwin (2018). Envisioning pathways to 2030:
Megatrends shaping the future of global higher education and international student mobility. Studyportals.
bit.ly/Megatrends2030
 Growth context of tertiary and international
enrolment in 15 high-income countries

2014 2015 % Change

Tertiary Enrolment 43,572,547 43,973,316 1%

Int'l Student Enrolment 2,744,851 2,942,591 7%

Int'l Enrolment as % of
Tertiary Enrolment 6% 7%

Source: Authors’ analysis based on data of 15 high-income countries—United States, United Kingdom,
Australia, France, Germany, Canada, Japan, Italy, Netherlands, Austria, Belgium, Korea, Switzerland, New
Zealand, Spain—in the order of number of international student enrolment. They enrol 63% of all globally
mobile students and contribute to 55% of world’s GDP.

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 <<go back

Data for Growth Projections

Total Tertiary Total Tertiary Int'l Enrolment as
Population, Participation Level, Total Int'l
Country Enrolment, Enrolment, % of Total Tertiary GDP Income Category of Country
Over 24 Over 24 Enrolment
All Ages Over 24 Enrolment
United States 19,532 8,094 214,213 3.8% 829,412 4.2% 18,036,648,000 High-income, OECD
United Kingdom 2,330 812 45,943 1.8% 428,724 18.4% 2,858,003,088 High-income, OECD
Australia 1,903 942 16,173 5.8% 266,048 14.0% 1,230,859,429 High-income, OECD
France 2,424 448 45,171 1.0% 235,123 9.7% 2,418,945,624 High-income, OECD
Germany 2,978 1,412 62,316 2.3% 210,542 7.1% 3,363,599,908 High-income, OECD
Canada 1,564 490 25,595 1.9% 164,274 10.5% 1,552,807,652 High-income, OECD
Japan 3,845 56 99,231 0.1% 132,685 3.5% 4,383,076,298 High-income, OECD
Italy 1,826 542 45,639 1.2% 87,544 4.8% 1,821,579,869 High-income, OECD
Netherlands 843 279 12,028 2.3% 70,692 8.4% 750,318,057 High-income, OECD
Austria 426 196 6,445 3.0% 65,165 15.3% 376,967,406 High-income, OECD
Belgium 505 101 8,043 1.3% 55,516 11.0% 455,106,662 High-income, OECD
Korea 3,268 564 36,815 1.5% 52,451 1.6% 1,377,873,196 High-income, OECD
Switzerland 294 146 6,144 2.4% 49,536 16.8% 670,789,929 High-income, OECD
New Zealand 270 114 3,035 3.8% 48,892 18.1% 173,416,552 High-income, OECD
Spain 1,964 720 35,146 2.0% 48,247 2.5% 1,192,955,481 High-income, OECD
Brazil 8,285 3,907 124,983 3.1% 19,093 0.2% 1,772,591,280 Upper-middle-income, non-OECD
Russia 7,435 1,824 104,410 1.7% 213,347 2.9% 1,326,016,016 Upper-middle-income, non-OECD
India 30,306 2,084 692,396 0.3%* 41,993 0.1% 2,116,239,206 Lower-middle-income, non-OECD
Indonesia 5,108 427 141,871 0.3% 7,235 0.1% 861,933,966 Lower-middle-income, non-OECD
China (P.R.) 43,367 1,217 967,848 0.1% 108,217 0.2% 11,158,456,654 Upper-middle-income, non-OECD
South Africa 1,019 443 32,295 1.4% 42,594 4.2% 314,571,181 Upper-middle-income, non-OECD
United Nations Derived (Column UNESCO (2014) United Nations
Source: OECD (2015) ('000) OECD (2015) ('000) Derived World Bank (2017)
(2015) ('000) C/D) ('000) (2015) ('000)
* Data unavailable. Assumed as a conservative estimate similar to that of Indonesia.

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Additional Bert van der Zwaan (2017). Higher Education in 2040

Resources Centre for Educational Research and Innovation (CERI) - University Futures, OECD

CGS and ETS (2017). Graduate Education 2030: Imagining the Future

Diana Laurillard and Eileen Kennedy (2017). The potential of MOOCs for learning at scale in the Global South

Max Roser. Our World in Data.

MacCormack, A. et al. (2013). Spurring innovation through competitions. MIT Sloan.

Megatrends by British Council

Megatrends by E&Y

Megatrends by Euromonitor

Megatrends by PwC

Megatrends by Sydney Business

Insights Oxford Martin Programme.

Publications

Robert Zemsky, Susan Shaman (2017) The Market Imperative: Segmentation and Change in Higher Education

What is Your Vision for Universities? University Alliance

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