Madura Chapter 3 PDF

Financial Markets and Institutions
11th Edition
by Jeff Madura
Chapter 3: 
Structure
of Interest
Rates
Structure of Interest Rates
Chapter Objectives
■ describe how characteristics of debt securities

cause their yields to vary
■ demonstrate how to estimate the appropriate yield

for any particular debt security
■ explain the theories behind the term structure of

interest rates (relationship between the term to
maturity and the yield of securities)
2
Why Debt Security Yields Vary
The yields on debt securities are affected:

Credit (default) risk
Liquidity
Tax status
Term to maturity
3
Credit (default) Risk

§  Investors must consider the creditworthiness of
the security issuer
§  All else being equal, securities with a higher
degree of default risk must offer higher yields
§  Especially relevant for longer term securities
4
Credit (default) Risk (cont.)

In general, securities with a higher degree of default
risk offer higher yields
§  Rating Agencies - Rating agencies charge the issuers of debt
securities a fee for assessing default risk. (Exhibit 3.1)
§  Accuracy of Credit Ratings - The ratings issued by the agencies
are useful indicators of default risk but they are opinions, not
guarantees
§  Oversight of Credit Rating Agencies - The Financial Reform Act
of 2010 established an Office of Credit Ratings within the Securities
and Exchange Commission in order to regulate credit rating
agencies. Rating agencies must establish internal controls
5
Exhibit 3.1 Rating Classification by Rating
Agencies
also rate an country such as France
6
Liquidity
§  The lower a security’s liquidity, the higher the
yield preferred by an investor
§  Debt securities with a short-term maturity or an
active secondary market have greater liquidity
7
Tax Status (Exhibit 3.2)

§  Investors are more concerned with after-tax
income
§  Taxable securities must offer a higher before-tax
yield
8
Exhibit 3.2 After-Tax Yields Based on Various Tax
Rates and Before-Tax Yields
progressive tax system 阶梯收税
9
Tax Status (cont.)

§  Computing the Equivalent Before-Tax Yield:
γ at = γ bt (1 − T )
γ at = after-tax yield
γ
γ bt = before-tax yield
T = Investor’s marginal tax rate
γ at
γ bt =
(1 − T )
10
Term to Maturity (Exhibit 3.3)

§  Maturity dates will differ between debt
securities
the yield curve
§  The term structure of interest rates defines the

relationship between term to maturity and the
annualized yield
11
Exhibit 3.3 Example of Relationship between Maturity and
Yield of Treasury Securities (as of March 2013)
12
Explaining Actual Yield Differentials
§  Small yield differentials can be relevant

§  The yield differential is the difference between
the yield offered on a security and the yield on
the risk-free rate
§  They are sometimes measured in basis points
where 1bp = 0.01%
13
Yield Differentials on Money Market Securities

§  Yields on commercial paper and negotiable
CDs are only slightly higher than T-bill rates to
compensate for lower liquidity and higher
default risk
§  Market forces cause the yields on all securities
to move in the same direction
14
Yield Differentials on Capital Market Securities

(Exhibit 3.4)
§  Municipal bonds have the lowest before-tax yield
but their after-tax yields are typically higher than
Treasury bonds
§  Treasury bonds have the lowest yield because of
their low default risk and high liquidity
15
Exhibit 3.4 Yield Differentials of Corporate Bonds
16
Estimating the Appropriate Yield
Yn = Rf,n + DP + LP + TA
where:
Yn = yield of an n-day debt security
Rf,n = yield of an n-day Treasury (risk-free) security
DP = default premium to compensate for credit risk
LP = liquidity premium to compensate for less liquidity
TA = adjustment due to difference in tax status
17
A Closer Look at the Term Structure
Pure Expectations Theory: Term structure

reflected in the shape of the yield curve is
determined solely by the expectations of interest
rates
§  Impact of an Expected Increase in Rates
leads to an upward sloping yield curve
(Exhibit 3.5)
§  Impact of an expected Decline in Rates
leads to a downward sloping yield curve
18
Exhibit 3.5 How Interest Rate Expectations Affect
the Yield Curve
19
Pure Expectations Theory: (cont.)

§  Algebraic Presentation:
(1+ t i2 ) 2 = (1+ t i1 )(1+ t +1 F1 )
where
i = known annualized interest rate of a two - year security at time t
t 2
i = known annualized interest rate of a one - year security at time t

t 1
t +1 F1 = one - year interest rate that is anticipated as of time t + 1
20
Liquidity Premium Theory: Investors prefer

short-term liquid securities but will be willing to
invest in long-term securities if compensated with
a premium for lower liquidity. (Exhibit 3.6)
§  Estimation of Forward Rates Based on
Liquidity Premium
(1 + ti2)2 = (1 + ti1)(1 + t+1r1) + LP2
where LP2 is the liquidity premium on the 2 year

security
21
Exhibit 3.6 Impact of Liquidity Premium on the
Yield Curve under Three Different Scenarios
22
not understand
Segmented Markets Theory: Investors choose
securities with maturities that satisfy their forecasted
cash needs
§  Limitation of the theory:
§  Some borrowers and savers have the flexibility to choose
among various maturities
§  Implications: Preferred Habitat Theory
§  Although investors and borrowers may normally
concentrate on a particular maturity market, certain
events may cause them to wander from their “natural” or
preferred market
23
Research on the Term Structure Theories

§  Interest rate expectations have a strong influence on the
term structure of interest rates
§  However, the forward rate derived from a yield curve
does not accurately predict future interest rates, and this
suggests that other factors may be relevant
§  General Research Implications - Although the results
differ, there is evidence that expectations, liquidity
premium, and segmented markets theories all have
some validity
24
Integrating the Theories of the Term
Structure
§  If we assume the following conditions:

§  Investors and borrowers currently expect interest
rates to rise
§  Most borrowers need long-term funds, while most
investors have only short-term funds to invest
§  Investors prefer more liquidity to less
§  Then all three conditions place upward
pressure on long-term yields relative to short
term yields leading to upward sloping yield
curve. (Exhibit 3.7)
25
Exhibit 3.7 Effect of Conditions in Example of Yield
Curve
26
Structure
Use of the Term Structure
§  Forecasting Interest Rates
§  The shape of the yield curve can be used to assess the
general expectations of investors and borrowers about
future interest rates
§  The curve’s shape should provide a reasonable
indication (especially once the liquidity premium effect
is accounted for) of the market’s expectations about
future interest rates
§  Forecasting Recessions - Some analysts believe that
flat or inverted yield curves indicate a recession in the
near future
27
Structure
Use of the Term Structure (cont.)

§  Making Investment Decisions - If the yield curve is
upward sloping, some investors may attempt to benefit
from the higher yields on longer-term securities even
though they have funds to invest for only a short
period of time
§  Making Decisions about Financing - Firms can
estimate the rates to be paid on bonds with different
maturities. This may enable them to determine the
maturity of the bonds they issue
28
Structure
Why the Slope of the Yield Curve Changes

§  Conditions may cause short-term yields to change
in a manner that differs from the change in long-
term yields (Exhibit 3.8)
How the Yield Curve Has Changed over Time
§  Yield curves at various dates are illustrated in
Exhibit 3.9
29
Exhibit 3.8 Potential Impact of Treasury Shift from
Long-Term to Short-Term Financing
30
Exhibit 3.9 Yield Curves at Various Points in Time
31
Structure
International Structure of Interest Rates

§  The yield curve’s shape at any given time also
varies among countries. Exhibit 3.10 plots the
yield curve for six different countries in July 2013.
32
Exhibit 3.10 Yield Curves among Foreign
Countries (as of July 2013)
what if borrow Japan invest Brazil :risk- foreign exchange
high inflation
33
SUMMARY
§  Quoted yields of debt securities at any given time may

vary for the following reasons:
1. securities with higher credit (default) risk must offer a higher yield
2. securities that are less liquid must offer a higher yield
3. taxable securities must offer a higher before-tax yield than do tax-
exempt securities
4. securities with longer maturities offer a different yield (not
consistently higher or lower) than securities with shorter maturities
§  The appropriate yield for any particular debt security can
be estimated by first determining the risk-free yield that is
currently offered by a Treasury security with a similar
maturity. Then adjustments are made that account for
credit risk, liquidity, tax status, and other provisions
34
SUMMARY (cont.)
§  The term structure of interest rates can be explained by

three theories:
1. The pure expectations theory suggests that the shape of the yield
curve is dictated by interest rate expectations
2. The liquidity premium theory suggests that securities with shorter
maturities have greater liquidity and therefore should not have to
offer as high a yield as securities with longer terms to maturity
3. The segmented markets theory suggests that investors and
borrowers have different needs that cause the demand and supply
conditions to vary across different maturities
§  Consolidating the theories suggests that the term structure

of interest rates depends on interest rate expectations,
investor preferences for liquidity, and the unique needs of
investors and borrowers in each maturity market.
35
Glossary
forward In the context of the term structure of interest rates, the

rate market's forecast of the future interest rate. In the context
of foreign exchange, the exchange rate at which a
specified currency can be purchased or sold at a specified
future point in time.
investment
Bonds that are rated Baa or better by Moody's and BBB or
-grade
better by Standard & Poor's.
bonds
liquidity
premium
theory Theory that suggests the yield to maturity is higher for
(liquidity illiquid securities, other things being equal.
preference
theory)
36
Glossary (cont.)
preferred Theory that suggests that although investors and
habitat borrowers may normally concentrate on a particular natural
theory maturity market, certain events may cause them to wander
from it.
pure
expectations Theory suggesting that the shape of the yield curve is
theory determined solely by interest rates.
segmented Theory that suggests investors and borrowers choose

markets securities with maturities that satisfy their forecasted cash
theory needs.
term
structure of Relationship between the term remaining until maturity and
interest the annualized yield of debt securities.
rates
37

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Financial Markets and Institutions

■ describe how characteristics of debt securities

■ demonstrate how to estimate the appropriate yield

■ explain the theories behind the term structure of

The yields on debt securities are affected:

Credit (default) Risk

Credit (default) Risk (cont.)

Tax Status (Exhibit 3.2)

progressive tax system 阶梯收税

Tax Status (cont.)

Term to Maturity (Exhibit 3.3)

§ The term structure of interest rates defines the

§ Small yield differentials can be relevant

Yield Differentials on Money Market Securities

Yield Differentials on Capital Market Securities

Yn = yield of an n-day debt security

Rf,n = yield of an n-day Treasury (risk-free) security

DP = default premium to compensate for credit risk

LP = liquidity premium to compensate for less liquidity

TA = adjustment due to difference in tax status

Pure Expectations Theory: Term structure

Pure Expectations Theory: (cont.)

i = known annualized interest rate of a one - year security at time t

t +1 F1 = one - year interest rate that is anticipated as of time t + 1

Liquidity Premium Theory: Investors prefer

where LP2 is the liquidity premium on the 2 year

Research on the Term Structure Theories

§ If we assume the following conditions:

Use of the Term Structure (cont.)

Why the Slope of the Yield Curve Changes

International Structure of Interest Rates

what if borrow Japan invest Brazil :risk- foreign exchange

§ Quoted yields of debt securities at any given time may

§ The term structure of interest rates can be explained by

§ Consolidating the theories suggests that the term structure

forward In the context of the term structure of interest rates, the

segmented Theory that suggests investors and borrowers choose

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§  The term structure of interest rates defines the

§  Small yield differentials can be relevant

§  If we assume the following conditions:

§  Quoted yields of debt securities at any given time may

§  The term structure of interest rates can be explained by

§  Consolidating the theories suggests that the term structure