Case Study - Valuation of Ultra Tech Cement
Case Study - Valuation of Ultra Tech Cement
Case Study - Valuation of Ultra Tech Cement
The Aditya Birla Group's cement flagship firm is UltraTech Cement Limited. UltraTech is
India's largest maker of grey cement, ready mix concrete (RMC), and white cement,
with a market capitalization of $ 5.9 billion. Except for China, it is the world's third-
largest cement manufacturer. UltraTech has a total capacity of 117.95 million tons of
grey cement per annum (MTPA). UltraTech operates 22 integrated manufacturing units,
27 grinding units, one linearization unit, and seven bulk packaging terminals. UltraTech
has a network of over one lakh channel partners across the country, giving it a market
share of more than 80%. UltraTech's white cement is marketed under the Birla White
brand. With a current capacity of 1.5 MTPA, it has one White Cement unit and one Wall
Care putty unit. UltraTech is India's largest concrete maker, with 130 Ready Mix
Concrete (RMC) units in 50 locations. It also offers a variety of specialty concretes to
fulfill the demands of discriminating consumers.
As Rohit has been doing his research on the share price of ultra tech cement then he
found out that the share price of ultra tech cement has been rising every day or so. The
rate of share growth is very rapid so in the year Jan 11, 2021, the share price starts with
5596.39 and its current share price is at 7,593.90 and the highest share price is the
Ultra Tech Cement touch was 8,214.05 on Nov 08, 2021. So, by observing its rapid
growth in share price Rohit wondered whether Ultra Tech Cement would be a good
investment for his Equity portfolio. He had learned how to apply the free cash flow
discounting valuation approach to locate and evaluate strong growth but Expensive
firms throughout his learning days. Using the financial data he acquired, he decided to
evaluate Ultra Tech Cement.
UltraTech has a total capacity of 117.95 million tons of grey cement per year (MTPA).
UltraTech has 22 integrated production units, 27 grinding units, one linearization facility,
and seven bulk packaging terminals under its control. UltraTech has over one lakh,
channel partners, across the country, with a market share of over 80% in India. In India,
UltraTech sells white cement under the brand name Birla White. It has one White
Cement plant and one Wall Care putty unit, with a current capacity of 1.5 MTPA.
UltraTech formed the Global Cement & Concrete Association (GCCA). It has committed
to the GCCA's Net Zero Concrete Roadmap and is a signatory to the GCCA Climate
Ambition 2050. UltraTech is working hard to decarbonize its operations as quickly as
possible. It has put in place cutting-edge technology like the Science-Based Targets
Initiative (SBTi) and the Internal Carbon Price, as well as set ambitious environmental
objectives like EP100 and RE100. UltraTech is the first Indian company to issue dollar-
denominated sustainability-linked bonds and the second in Asia. UltraTech aspires to
contribute to the social and economic development of the communities in which it
operates. Education, healthcare, sustainable livelihoods, community infrastructure, and
social concerns are the focus of the Company's social initiatives.
VISION
Mission
1. Sustainability
2. Innovation
3. Customer-centeredness
As Porter has maintained, the level of competition in a firm has a major influence on the
industry's profit potential. Competitive strategy, according to Porter, is a company's
attempt to gain a competitive advantage in its industry. Because a company's future
profitability is heavily determined by its industry's profitability, a company must first
assess its industry's underlying competitive structure to establish a profitable
competitive strategy. After analyzing the competitive structure of the industry, we look at
the factors that determine a firm's relative competitive position within that market. The
competitive climate, according to Porter, is favorable to innovation.
The Indian cement business is very competitive since it is open to both domestic
and international competitors. In reality, nearly eight out of ten worldwide
enterprises, such as Ultratech and Abuja Cement, are based in India. UltraTech
Cement, Jaypee Cement, Shree Cement, ACC, Abuja Cement, Dalmia Bharat,
Ramco Cement, Birla Cement, JK Cement, India Cement Ltd are the top ten
cement firms in India. Many businesses operate in more than one industry
category.
The Cement industry has high entrance hurdles. For a new firm, the start-up capital
required to create manufacturing capacity to attain a minimum efficient scale is
prohibitively expensive. Government policies and laws may provide difficulty for new
firms. A domestic firm, on the other hand, with local knowledge and competence, can
compete in its market against lesser-known global corporations.
The Cement is under pressure from substitutes. Due to the variety of alternatives
available, buyers have a wide range of options.
Supplier Bargaining Power:
In the Cement business, this word refers to all providers Some Indian suppliers are tiny
enterprises that rely on the corporation. In the connection between industry and its
suppliers, the power axis is skewed in favor of industry. In most circumstances, the
business is dominated by powerful buyers who may force their conditions on providers.
Indian buyers have a wide range of options. In India, more than 20 international
manufacturers sell their products. A low switching cost is related to choosing between
competing brands. As a result, the power axis in the relationship between the car
industry and its eventual consumer's shifts in the consumer's favor.
Despite the high concentration ratio seen in the automotive sector, rivalry in the Indian
auto sector is intense due to the entry of foreign companies into the market. The
industry rivalry is low, with competitors matching any existing product in a matter of
months. This industry instinct is primarily driven by technical capabilities acquired over
years of gestation through technical collaboration with international players.
A beta coefficient can be used to relate the volatility of a single stock to the whole
market's systematic risk. In statistics, beta is the slope of a line resulting from a
regression of data points. In finance, each of these data points reflects the performance
of a single stock relative to the market as a whole.
The activity of a security's returns as they respond to market fluctuations is adequately
described by beta. The beta of a security is determined by multiplying the product of the
security's covariance and the market's returns by the variance of the market's returns
over a certain time. The beta calculation is used by investors to determine if a stock
moves in lockstep with the rest of the market. It also tells you how volatile–or risky–a
stock is in comparison to the rest of the market.
It is a mathematical model that captures the link between systematic risk and
anticipated return for assets, especially equities. The CAPM model is frequently used in
finance to price hazardous securities and generate projected returns for assets based
on their risk and cost of capital. When the risk and time value of money are compared to
projected return, the CAPM method is used to determine if a stock is properly valued.
The following is the formula for determining an asset's anticipated return given its risk:
Where:
Rf = risk-free rate
For the computation of beta of UltraTech Cement, all three methods are
used; Historical Beta, Fundamental Beta, and Accounting Beta. The risk-
free rate is assumed to be 6.46 percent.
Historical Beta:
Beta is calculated using slope and standard deviation which comes out to be the same.
The price of a security with a beta greater than 1.0 is potentially more volatile than the
market. The CAPM model is used to compute the cost of equity/ expected returns. On
comparing the expected return using the CAPM model and the average return of the
company, we find that the expected return is more than the average return, hence the
firm is undervalued using the beta calculations.
To forecast the financial statements like balance sheet, profit and loss account,
organizations should make an educated projection regarding their future financial
position, including a forecast of the business' assets, liabilities, and capital. A balance
sheet estimate of the future is significant for organizations as it predicts what a business
expects to own and what it expects to owe at a particular future date, which can help
them plan for future purchases and other significant business choices.
The reason for financial estimation is to break down the current and past financial
position and utilize that data to foresee a business' future financial conditions. Doing so
can help settle on significant business decisions.
Financial forecasting is a bookkeeping instrument that helps plan for the future of a
business and make a roadmap of how you'd like the organization to develop. With
financial estimates as a guide, the management can make business strategies and set
objectives dependent on accurate information to improve the plan of action later on.
Interpretation:
The forecasted financial statements of the company selected are prepared and attached
in the excel file.
Balance Sheet
Assumption
The forecasting of items on the balance sheet is done for the next four years, 2022-25.
Various items in the forecasted balance sheet are assumed to be constant and
considered as equal to the previous year, the year 2021, like the equity share capital is
assumed to remain constant for the firm, non-controlling interest, deferred tax liabilities,
long-term provisions, short-term borrowings, short-term provisions, other current
liabilities, capital WIP, intangible assets, short-term loans, and advances, to name a few
items. The reason for these items being assumed to remain the same as the previous
year is that some of these balance sheet items cannot be predicted for the future, like
DTA, DTL. Some items like equity share capital generally don't change for a company
for a long period and remain constant.
The cash and cash equivalents items are the PLUG item in the forecasted balance
sheet and represent the balancing item to match total assets with total liabilities for the
balance sheet to match.
The long-term borrowing, other long-term liabilities is forecasted taking sales as the
base for calculation as the borrowings of the firm may increase as more sales are
made.
Trade payables are forecasted taking the raw material as the base for calculation as the
amount due to suppliers is dependent on the raw material purchased.
Fixed assets, PPE, trade receivables, inventory, cash, and cash equivalent are
forecasted taking sales as the basis. If there are more sales, more plant and equipment
is required to match the sales and more money will be due from customers. The
balance sheet shows a somewhat constant forecasted balance sheet with increased
total assets and liabilities.
Many items like cost of material consumed, operating and direct expenses, employee
cost, are forecasted taking the sales as the base for calculation as most of the profit and
loss items are dependent on the sales. The finance cost, interest, is dependent on how
much the firm has liability and hence forecasted based on liability.
The depreciation and amortization expenses are dependent on the assets, both tangible
and intangible, and hence the base for forecasting.
The forecasted profit and loss account show increased revenue from operations from
the current year 2021. The total expenses for the firm also increased.
The profit before tax increases from the year 2021 which shows the minimum amount of
profits for the firm.
COST OF EQUITY
Cost of Equity is the rate of return a company pays out to equity investors. A firm uses
the cost of equity to assess the relative attractiveness of investments, including both
internal projects and external acquisition opportunities. Companies typically use a
combination of equity and debt financing, with equity capital being more expensive .
Interpretation
Firstly, we calculated a BETA. After the calculation of beta. In this data, we took the
starting Sensex value that was 100, and the current value is 57679.51. From this data,
we calculate a market return that is 6.85%.
FORECASTING DATA
In ratio analysis, we do Liquidity ratio, Solvency Ratio, Profitability Ratio, Return Ratio,
Efficiency Ratio, Market Ratio. As we can see in the chart all higher ratios are better and the
lower is better.
INTERPRETATION
I. LIQUIDITY RATIOS
Liquidity Ratio describes the short-term positioning of a company. In the liquidity ratio, we have
taken three Current, Quick & Cash Ratio.
1. Current Ratio – We have calculated the current ratio under Liquidity Ratios. By
looking at the figures, The current ratio shows the ability of the company to pay its
current liabilities. The companies should have a Current Ratio between 1.33 to 3. In
FY2017 it is 1.60 & FY 2021 is 1.17. The company is maintaining its current ratio.
2. Quick Ratio – Quick ratio considers current assets excluding inventories as it believes
that inventories take time to convert into cash, so it takes current assets that quickly
convert into cash. It is considered better than the current ratio. The Quick Ratio should be
not less than 1 or not more than 2.5 if it is less than 1 company liabilities are more than
assets and if more than 2.5 companies have more quick funds. In FY 2021 is 0.76,
companies should maintain their Quick Ratio that is less than 1.
3. Cash Ratio - The cash ratio is a measurement of a company's liquidity, specifically the
ratio of a company's total cash and cash equivalents to its current liabilities. The cash
ratio should be between 0.5 to 1. And generally, the cash ratio is important for bank
companies. In FY 2021 it is 0.09.
The solvency ratio describes the long-term positioning of the company. From this, the company
can know its sustainability and pay its obligation in the long term.
1. Debt to Asset Ratio - It shows the relationship between borrowed funds and owner
funds. Debt Asset Ratio should be between 0.3 and 0.6. According to the debt asset ratio if
the ratio is more than 0.5 means company insolvent is increased. And if the ratio is 1 which
means now the company is insolvent.
2. Asset to equity ratio - It indicates the relationship of the total assets of the firm to
the part-owned by shareholders. The higher the equity-to-asset ratio, the less leveraged
the company is, meaning that a larger percentage of its assets are owned by the
company and its investors. While a 100% ratio would be ideal, that does not mean that
a lower ratio is necessarily a cause for concern. In 2017 it will be 1.73 and In 2021 it will
be 1.95.
3. Interest Coverage Ratio - The lower interest coverage ratio, means the company's
higher debt burden and the greater the possibility of bankruptcy or default. A higher
ratio indicates better financial health as it means that the company is more capable
of meeting its interest obligations from operating earnings. In 2021 it is 6.45 companies
will maintain their interest coverage ratio.
The profitability ratio is the key ratio that talks about the company's overall value and its
profitable position. We do two ratios: Operating profit margin & Net profit margin.
2. Net Profit Margin- Net profit margin is used to calculate the percentage of profit a
company produces from its total revenue. In 2021 it is 12.42 as compared to 2017 it is
increasing.
1. Return on Assets- The return on assets shows the percentage of how profitable a
company's assets are in generating revenue. In 2021 the company is maintaining its return on
asset ratio.
2. Return on Capital Employed- Return on capital employed (ROCE) this ratio can
help to understand how well a company is generating profits from its capital as it is put to
use. The high value of ROCE means the company has good profitability and capital
efficiency. Compared to 2017 to 2021 it is increasing.
V. EFFICIENCY RATIOS
1. Inventory Turnover Ratio - It indicates that the Finished Goods are converted
into Sales, and the company can recover its Cost of Goods Sold (COGS). It
measures the number of times on average the inventory is sold during the period.
Inventory Turnover Ratio Inventory turnover is the rate at which inventory stock is
sold, used, and replaced. From 2017 to 2021 they are maintaining their inventory
turnover ratio.
3. Payable Turnover Ratio - Payable Turnover Ratio payable turnover shows how
many times a company pays off its accounts payable during a period. A lower
ratio is good for the company. That company is maintaining their 2017 is 2.43 to
2021 is 1.51.
4. Asset Turnover Ratio - This ratio tells us how efficiently and profitably company
assets are used to generate sales. Asset turnover ratio with a high asset turnover
ratio operates more efficiently as compared to competitors with a lower ratio. If
the ratio is greater than 1, it's always good. In 2021 it is 1.03.
5. Net Working Capital Turnover Ratio- It measures a company’s liquidity and its
ability to meet short-term obligations, as well as fund operations of the business. The
ideal position is to have more current assets than current liabilities and thus have a
positive net working capital balance. In 2018 it is negative but in 2021 12.93 companies
again maintain their net working capital ratio.
1. Earnings Per Share (EPS) – It indicates how much money a company makes
for each share of its stock and a higher EPS indicates greater value because
investors will pay more for a company’s shares if they think the company has
higher profits relative to its share price. Earnings per share ratio which divides net
earnings available to common shareholders by the average outstanding shares over a
certain period. The EPS formula indicates a company’s ability to produce net profits for
common shareholders. From 2017 to 2021 it is increasing.
2. PE Ratio - PE Ratio is the ratio for valuing a company that measures its current share
price relative to its per-share earnings. the P/E ratio is also negative, which means that it
has negative earnings. Higher the P/E ratio higher the growth. In 2021 it is 40.24.
Peer Analysis
Discounting Cash Flow Valuation
INTERPRETATION
The Discounted Cash Flow model is calculated by two methods: the first is FCFE and
the second is FCFF. In FCFE we use the formula net income-(CAPEX-dep) -(change
in working capital) -(new debt - debt repay), and in FCFF we use ebit(1-tax)
+depreciation-CAPEX-change in working capital, we calculated dcf by FCFF method
firstly, we calculate a Free cash flow the formula as I told you EBIT(1-tax) +Depreciation
– Capex – Change in working capital. When we see in google many analysts say the
same thing that UltraTech Cement is overvalued and This is not the right time to buy the
stock. A stock that is considered overvalued is likely to experience a price decline and
return to a level that better reflects its financial status and fundamentals. Investors try to
avoid overvalued stocks since they are not considered to be a good buy.
RELATIVE VALUATION
● We need to identify comparable assets and obtain market values for these assets
● TO convert these market values into standardized values since the absolute
prices cannot be compared. This process of standardizing creates price multiples.
● Compare the standardized value or multiple for the asset being analyzed to the
standardized values for the comparable asset, controlling for any differences between
the firms that might affect the multiple, to judge whether the asset is under or
overvalued
o Use of multiples and comparable is less time and resources intensive cash flow
valuation.
o It is easy to sell.
o It is easier to defend.
o Market imperatives – Relative valuation is much more likely to reflect the current
mood of the market since it attempts to measure relative and not intrinsic value.
Relative Valuation Methods
● EV to sales ratio
● EV to EBITDA
are willing to pay for each rupee of the company's earnings. Higher the P/E.
more expensive the stock. A high P/E ratio could mean that a company's
rate in the future. Formula - Stock Price per Share/ Earning per Share
The P/CF ratio measures how much cash a company generates relative to its
stock price. A lower P/CF multiple implies that a stock may be undervalued and a
higher P/CF multiple implies that a stock may be over-valued.
Conclusion:
As per the conclusion After doing the analysis or gathering all the financial data he
comes to know that the ultra tech cement is overvalued so he finds it very risky to invest
in ultra tech cement so he will not put his money on ultra tech cement. And he later on
decided that he will invest in another peer company. Like Shree cements so, from the
peer analysis and valuation he comes to know that Ultra tech cement is not a good
choice for the investment so, the first reason that’s it overvalued and if we talk about its
other valuation ratio like EV/sale is also not doing good if we compare to its peers.