Impact of Climate Change On Water Resources

Impact of Climate Change on Water
Resources and Adaptation Strategies in

Pakistan
By
Muhammad Hannan
To
Dr. Muhammad Iqbal Makhdoom
B.Sc. (Hons.) Agriculture Water Management
Introduction
First I define ‘climate change’ it put simply is the long term shift in the
temperature and weather pattern in a region. It is a natural process with
one or more species dominating the planet changing the atmosphere due to
its biological or artificial processes e.g. the increase in Earth’s oxygen level
giving rise to gigantic fauna and the meteor impact causing dinosaur
extinction changed the Earth’s climate irreparably.
Still since man began the process of industrialization in the late 1800s by
using fossil fuels to power machines due to which certain gases namely
oxides of carbon , nitrogen and methane among others have been steadily
increasing in the atmosphere causing the greenhouse effect. The effect so to
say essentially traps the energy of the sunrays trying to bounce back to
space inside the atmosphere of the planet.
But in the spirit of fairness we will also add other contributing factors to
Earth’s climate change which are as follows.
 Absorption of Sun’s energy

 Changes in Earth’s rotation
 Variations in solar activity (solar flares mainly)
 Change in Earth’s reflective properties (pollution)
 Volcanic activity
 Change in natural emissions of carbon dioxide
This illustration is part of the argument of the scientific community that
human activity is not the major actor in the theater of climate change (the
data used above was provided by WWF).
Effects of Climate Change on Water
Resources in Pakistan
Following are the major impacts on water resources as a result of climate
change.
 The main climate change consequences related to water resources are

increases in temperature, shifts in precipitation patterns and snow
cover, and a likely increase in the frequency of flooding and droughts.
 Shorter depositing windows for ice on the Hindu Kush-Karakoram
Mountains along with a quicker melting time period will result in
catastrophic damages downstream (mainly the Indus plains) as the
damage will be both due to floods and disturbance of the agricultural
practices.
 As a result of faster seasonal changes the Indus plain may also be
subjected to a change in monsoon rains which may increase up to 25%
in the northern regions and gradually decrease as the move south.
This change in the rain pattern will result in waterlogging and might
even raise the groundwater level to such extent that may result in the
land becoming unfit for agriculture.
 In the province of Sindh coastal areas are being ravaged by the
intrusion of sea water causing groundwater to become saline, arable
land being washed away resulting in the agriculture in the region to
crumble.
 The senate has even gone as far as to claim that in 30 years Badin and
Thatta will be lost to the sea while the same is the fate for the
metropolis of Karachi but in 60 years. These claims were made on the
basis of present national and international studies.
 On average 80 acres of land from the Sindh coastline is lost to the sea
daily while the intrusion of the sea has reached as far as 30 to 50 km
inland according to different sources in the past few years.
 According to data the constructions and steps taken to decrease
sediment load upstream in the Indus delta has caused a net increase in
the rate of sea intrusion.
 While the land is being ravaged by the intrusion of sea water the
people of these calamity ridden region are facing socio-economic
collapse as the once bountiful fields are now barren , their water
unusable and they themselves are disease ridden.
 Due to a net negative change on the water resources in Pakistan due
to climatic conditions the warmer conditions favor the reproduction of
both diseases and their vectors ( normally insects for instance
mosquitos). Major diseases among them are malaria, cholera,
bacterial diarrhea, dengue fever.
 This disturbance of the natural water resources has already seen 40%
of Sindh’s population effected by the negative impacts become
nomadic resulting in seasonal migrations as they travel with their
livestock as crops become unfeasible in the own region (either due to
sea intrusion , salinization of ground water or due to floods).
 However the region responsible for being the breadbasket for the
nation i.e. the Indus plains ( as it produces 90% of the national food ) is
at major risk due to glacier lake outbursts, intense rainfalls , change in
winter season rain patterns etc. which may cause extensive damage to
standing crops .
 Flooding is major cause for concern for our nation as we have went
through terrible floods in the past in the years 1950, 1956, 1957,
1973, 1976, 1978, 1988, 1992, 2010, 2011, 2012.
 The nation suffered the worst drought in its history from 1998 to 2004
causing unfathomable damage to the economy of the nation and the
lives of its effected civilians.
In short the major challenges staring down Pakistan’s
water sector due to climate change are
1. Increased variability of river flows due to increase in the variability of

monsoon and winter rains.
2. Uncertainty about future river flow and glaciers melting.
3. Increased demand of irrigation water because of higher evaporation rates

at elevated temperatures in the wake of reducing per capita availability of
water resources and increasing overall water demand.
4. Reduction in water storages capacities due to increased sediments (0.2

million acre foot/year).
5. Conventional irrigation system with high water losses and low crop water
productivity (wheat at 24% and rice at 55% less than the world averages).
6. Influence of groundwater recharge due to high level of abstraction and

changes in precipitation and evapotranspiration.
7. Lack of Trans boundary river inflows and glaciers monitoring

infrastructure.
(Source: Footnote 43, 44, 45; and Hussain, I., R. Sakthivadivel, U.

Amarasinghe, M. Mudasser and D. Molden 2003. Land and water
productivity of wheat in the western Indo-Gangetic plains of India and
Pakistan).
Adaptation Strategies Dealing with
Climate Change in Pakistan
To deal with climate change the nation is currently a part of 12 national, 10
regional and 4 global level projects which are classified into their respective
groups below.
 Agriculture = 6 projects,
 Aquaculture = 1 project,
 Biodiversity protection = 1 project,
 Ecosystem conservation = 1 project,
 Watershed management = 4 projects,
 Freshwater supply = 3 projects,
 Coastal zone protection = 2 projects,
 Disaster risk management = 5 projects
 Miscellaneous = 2 (1 for gender studies, 1 for private
sector development).
Reflecting concerns regarding Pakistan are growing per capita water scarcity
and the potential impact of climate change on its future water resources, a
majority of the projects identified have a strong focus on freshwater and
watershed management. In particular, Pakistan is engaged in several large
regional projects looking at the potential impacts of climate change water
resources in the Hindu Kush–Himalayan mountain ranges. Among these are
two projects being implemented by the International Centre for Integrated
Mountain Development (ICIMOD): the Himalayan Climate Change
Adaptation Programme, which has a strong emphasis on understanding the
uncertainties associated with the impact of climate change on the water
resources of the major river basins of the Hindu Kush–Himalayan region, and
the Rural Livelihoods and Climate Change in the Himalayas project,
This seeks to increase the resilience of poor and vulnerable mountain
communities.
Similarly, the Himalayan Adaptation, Water and Resilience project being
implemented as part of the CARIAA program combines research and the
piloting of community-based activities to help build the adaptive capacity of
poor populations living within the river basins fed by the Hindu Kush–
Himalayan Mountains, including the Indus Basin. In addition to these
regional projects, the GOP and the Adaptation Fund are co-financing the
Reducing Risks and Vulnerabilities from Glacial Lake Outburst Floods in
Northern Pakistan project being implemented by the UNDP. It too has a
strong focus on building the capacity of federal and local government
institutions and local communities, as well as implementing pilot
community-level activities, in order to improve risk mapping, early-warning
systems, and disaster planning. In collaboration with the UNDP, Pakistan has
submitted a request to the Green Climate Fund to finance a second phase of
this project (UNDP, 2015).
A more targeted initiative is the Mainstreaming Climate Change Adaptation
through Water Resource Management in Leather Industrial Zone
Development project being implemented in Sialkot District of Punjab
Province. Working specifically with the region’s large leather industry, the
project also aims to integrate climate change adaptation into urban
development planning while demonstrating technologies that improve
water treatment and conservation. These projects highlight the importance
of improving capacity within government and industry to adapt to the
anticipated impacts of climate change on Pakistan’s large cities.
Conclusion
To achieve its vision of becoming an upper-middle-income country by 2025,
Pakistan needs to develop policies and programs that promote an economy
and society resilient to a range of shocks and stresses,
Including those induced directly and indirectly by climate change. The GOP
has taken steps toward this objective by re-establishing the MOCC and
preparing its NCCP and associated Framework.
However, a number of barriers to progress on adaptation action in Pakistan

remain to be addressed overcome. Most prominent among these is the
need to strengthen institutions and build capacity at the national and
subnational levels. Existing institutional bodies at the federal level lack the
required capacity to fulfill their intended roles and support the
implementation of existing policy commitments (CCD, 2013; Parry et al.,
2013). For achieving Pakistan’s development goals is also required to more
strongly advance integration of climate risk considerations into policy and
planning processes within key ministries such as Finance, Water and Power,
Planning and Development, Food Security, and Health Services Regulation
and Coordination. Systems for monitoring and evaluating progress toward
achievement of the goals and objectives outlined in the NCCP and
associated Framework.
In short, climate change poses a significant threat to Pakistan—one that has

the potential to accentuate existing food, water, and energy security
concerns as well as increase tensions between social groups and regions.
Greater effort is needed to better understand and communicate the risk
posed by climate change; identify and promote options for effectively
responding to climate change while advancing sustainable development;
and strengthen the capacity of different levels of government, the private
sector, and civil society to engage in adaptation planning and action.
Investments in these actions will better enable Pakistan to achieve its
development objectives in both the immediate future and the longer term.
THANKS

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Impact of Climate Change on Water

Resources and Adaptation Strategies in

 Absorption of Sun’s energy

 The main climate change consequences related to water resources are

1. Increased variability of river flows due to increase in the variability of

2. Uncertainty about future river flow and glaciers melting.

3. Increased demand of irrigation water because of higher evaporation rates

4. Reduction in water storages capacities due to increased sediments (0.2

6. Influence of groundwater recharge due to high level of abstraction and

7. Lack of Trans boundary river inflows and glaciers monitoring

(Source: Footnote 43, 44, 45; and Hussain, I., R. Sakthivadivel, U.

However, a number of barriers to progress on adaptation action in Pakistan

In short, climate change poses a significant threat to Pakistan—one that has

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