Renewable Energy: Daniel Icaza-Alvarez, Francisco Jurado, Marcos Tostado-V Eliz, Paúl Arevalo

Renewable Energy 189 (2022) 199e220
Contents lists available at ScienceDirect
Renewable Energy
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/renene
Decarbonization of the Galapagos Islands. Proposal to transform the

energy system into 100% renewable by 2050
Daniel Icaza-Alvarez a, b, *, Francisco Jurado b, Marcos Tostado-Ve
liz a, Paúl Arevalo a
a
Departament of Electrical Engineering, University of Jaen, Linares, Spain
b
Postgraduate Unit, Departament of Electrical Engineering, Catholic University of Cuenca, Cuenca, Ecuador
a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t
Article history: This research presents a completely decarbonized system structured with renewable energies for the
Received 15 September 2021 fragile ecosystem of the Galapagos Islands of Ecuador, with a horizon to the year 2050. The transition
Received in revised form process begins with clear legal actions and allocating economic resources that clearly promote a change
28 February 2022
in the energy matrix and the transition would be achieved until the year 2050. The Galapagos Islands are
Accepted 1 March 2022
Available online 7 March 2022
the second largest marine reserve on the planet, declared a World Heritage Site in 1978 for UNESCO. The
archipelago, a beautiful ecological attraction, has tourism as its main economic source. The biggest
problem is in the supply of energy that mainly comes from fossil fuels, in addition to that, the smell of
Keywords:
Clean energy
fuel in several places is out of tune with the harmonious nature and its species. The efforts began to be
Decarbonization noticed when in the Archipelago the new implementations of renewable energy began to become a
Renewable energy reality with the purpose of stopping using fossil fuels. In this sense, there is the potential to take
EnergyPLAN advantage of the resources available in specific sites, especially the photovoltaic and wind solar
Energy transition considered in the National Plan All a Life. The change in the productive matrix from the national level
also implies a change in demand, including at the transportation level with the use of electric vehicles
and the use of electric stoves in homes. The purpose is that energy services in the Galapagos Islands
progressively increase, on the one hand, replacing fossil fuels and on the other, supplying the growing
demand with a view to 2050, taking advantage of renewable energies until reaching 100%.
© 2022 Published by Elsevier Ltd.
1. Introduction prominence in the incipient industrial development, establishing a

new economic order through the use of coal. Starting in 1913, with
Reaching Goal 7 for Sustainable Development (SDG 7) means the invention of the oil-derived combustion engine, established a
guaranteeing access to energy in an affordable, reliable, sustainable monopoly for obtaining energy used in transportation [6].
and modern [1]. An adequate energy supply is a latent need that Industrialization improved the processes at the beginning of the
involves millions of people around the world and most of them 21st century with the purpose of exploiting fossil fuels en masse,
have many difficulties to develop economically [2,3]. Historically, which put the international community in check [7]. However, due
fuels have been an important source for the well-being and to the high levels of exploitation of fossil fuels, countries experience
development of different countries, however it has also contributed substantial reductions in their reserves, especially oil, experiencing
with negative consequences, including the increase in the climate global climate change that includes fuel shortage problems [8].
on earth [4]. Furthermore, the uses bring with them growing Examples of this type are lived in Latin America in countries such as
problems of an environmental nature, such as plastic, which, being Venezuela [9,10], Bolivia [11], Chile [12], Ecuador [13], Brazil [14].
a derivative of oil, has caused disastrous problems in marine species The common denominator of the countries is that the oil fields are
[5]. These fuels from the so-called Industrial Revolution, acquired being depleted at a rate never seen before and puts future devel-
opment at risk [15,16]. The transnational companies are seeking, as
possible, concessions with government entities for the fields that
still remain, even at the expense of those who live in those regions
* Corresponding author. Postgraduate Unit, Departament of Electrical Engineer-
ing, Catholic University of Cuenca, Cuenca, Ecuador.
[17,18].
E-mail addresses: doia0001@red.ujaen.es (D. Icaza-Alvarez), fjurado@ujaen.es Ecuador is a typical example in which foreign companies have
(F. Jurado). exploited oil in the Amazon, leaving enormous consequences such
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2022.03.008
0960-1481/© 2022 Published by Elsevier Ltd.
D. Icaza-Alvarez, F. Jurado, M. Tostado-Veliz et al. Renewable Energy 189 (2022) 199e220
Nomenclature NZE Net Zero Emissions

PE Primary energy
ARCONEL Electric Regulation and Control Agency PLANEE National Energy Efficiency Plan
CO2 Carbon Dioxide PLG Petroleum Liquid Gas
COP Conference Of Parties PV Photovoltaic
OCTOAD Organic Code of Territorial Organization Autonomy and RE Renewable Energy
Decentralization SDG 7 Seventh Sustainable Development Goal
CL Cooling load TOP Territorial Ordering Plan
CMSS Coordinating Ministry of Strategic Sectors TPP Total Power Plants
EU European Union UNF United Nations Foundation
GES Galapagos Electricity Sector UNDP United Nations Development Program
GHG Greenhouse Gas WHS World Heritage Site
GGC Galapagos Government Council ZFFG Zero Fossil Fuels in Galapagos
GSEP Global Sustainable Electricity Partnership
IEA International Energy Agency Formulae
IDB Inter-American Development Bank fmaxSE Element of maximum consumption of surplus
INECEL National Institute of Technology of Ecuador electrical energy
ITT Ishpingo-Tambococha-Tiputini PLY= Energy yearly electricity consumption per capita in
C
LMP Land Management Plan kWh/yr/person
MEER Ministry of Electricity and Renewable Energy PSE Annual system surplus energy in kWh/year
NEA National Energy Agenda fmaxpload : Element that allows increasing the annual AC load
NGO Non Governmental and that the maximum surplus energy can be used.
NISCE National Institute of Statistics and Censuses of nHUMAN : Number of people consuming power generated
Ecuador from the hybrid system
NPAL National Plan All a Life
as the destruction of vegetation where countless species live, which

was denounced by the government of Rafael Correa, which even
brought with it an international legal controversy [19]. Further-
more, the consequences do not stop there, a large part of the
uncontacted peoples are affected by having to migrate to other
places, which brings social problems and human habitat [20]. The
fight for oil exploitation does not give truce and the few available
sites are waging a merciless battle, the Yasuni ITT can be named
where the fauna, flora and isolated towns are stalked by extracti-
vists who win the fight against environmentalists and take
possession of these limited species-rich sites. Ecuador at the end of
2011 promoted the initiative that had international repercussions.
In fact, it was considered an example of the struggle to stop climate
change, recognized as Yasuni-ITT action [21,22]. The proposal
started by leaving a large part of the oil deposits in the subsoil. The
commitment that was envisaged is that the crude of the area Ish-
pingo, Tambococha and Tiputini (ITT) within the Yasuni is not Fig. 1. The Galapagos Islands General view.
exploited because it is an area very rich in biodiversity on the planet

in exchange for a voluntary economic remuneration of natural or
This biogeographic region is considered a living museum and
legal persons to world level [23]. This innovative proposal, for
showcase of evolution, with a total area of 147135.4 km2, of which
many, prevented that around 22% of oil fields from avoiding the
around 97% corresponds to the Galapagos National Park registered
emission of approximately 415 million tons of CO2 into the envi-
as Cultural Heritage of Humanity [28]. Meanwhile, 3% is inhabited
ronment [24].
area. According to the political-administrative order of Galapagos
To have a clearer view of the Ecuadorian panorama, in Yasuni
[29], its capital is Puerto Baquerizo Moreno to the southwest of the
Park in 1 ha, there are 660 species of plants, in relation to a thou-
island of San Cristo bal.
sand species of plants that exist in all of North America [25,26].
According to figures officially published by the National Institute
Actually with this statement we can take into account the re-
of Statistics and Censuses of Ecuador (NISCE), currently 25,244
percussions that oil can affect in areas like these, for these reasons
people live in the archipelago, with an annual population growth of
an energy transformation to migrate from toxic fuels to clean en-
1.8% [30]. It implies that there is a growing need for electrical ser-
ergies becomes very positive.
vice for end users, thus generating a greater demand for electricity.
If this first part was of great interest, the part that we are going
With these antecedents of population growth and the proposal of a
to analyze later becomes extraordinarily fantastic. We consider the
new structure based on renewable energies in exchange for fossil
Galapagos Archipelago as an icon of the beauty that nature offers, it
fuels, as proposed in the government of President Guillermo Lazo,
belongs to Ecuador and is located in the Pacific Ocean (See Fig. 1). It
the tie for 2050 with the so-called "ecological transition" is a
is here that Charles Darwin English naturalist, renowned scientist
challenge for the Galapagos Electricity Sector (GES) [31] and in this
who raised the theory of evolution [27].
200
investigation the roadmap is drawn up to achieve this purpose. work than is currently done in terms of mobility, cooling, heating,
The beautiful natural landscapes of the Archipelago, the cooking food, etc. The trend of improving energy efficiency is
uniqueness and diversity of the species it houses, its geological gaining momentum in this regard and not only involves the
dynamics, its volcanic origin are more than enough reasons to transformation of fossil energy to sustainable renewable energy,
consider it as a living and evolutionary laboratory that does not but also its appropriate uses to meet the future needs of the world's
exist anywhere else in the world. If there is something more to population.
indicate about Galapagos to understand the importance and As shown in the exposed literature, it is clear that there is a
dimension for humanity, it is the first site in the world that was worldwide need for electrical power systems in different countries
designated as a World Heritage Site (WHS) [32]. and regions to change to clean energies. Here the question arises as
to how this transition should be carried out [37,47]. This article
1.1. Current situation presents a hypothesis that allows us to evaluate the future energy
system for the Galapagos special regime, as it is even stated in the
Actually the Galapagos Islands are of great value to the entire Ecuadorian Constitution of 2008 and we project it until 2050 [48].
humanity. However, there is a problem that we need to address An impact approach is provided in the reduction of the pollution
with concern and that is the main reason for this study, it is the that the archipelago lives today in a completely decarbonized one,
electrical issue [4]. The Galapagos hislas throughout time have had considering a higher rate of feasible and exploitable renewable
as their main sources of energy supply those from fossil fuels [33]. energies [33,49]. Intelligent energy systems are already being
In fact, it has been of enormous help in its beginnings for the proposed worldwide, this will also affect these territories in the not
economic development in the Archipelago. However, since 2007 too distant future, however the process must be clear and orderly
there has been concern that polluting actions are taking place in and the Ecuadorian electricity sector be energized [50]. All sectors
this fragile ecosystem with an unexpected population growth [34], must be involved and considered in these transition processes so
which makes it necessary to take actions aimed at de-carbonizing that in addition to being an ecological contribution, it is also an
the islands and replacing them with clean energy, even thinking economic and social contribution [51].
about the future demand for energy [35]. Advantageously, the policies in Ecuador have been routed in a
In this sense, the use of renewable energies is a very feasible good way, of course there may be much to improve, however the
option in decarbonization processes as carried out by different cornerstones are established. The challenge for the different gov-
countries with the purpose of transforming their systems based on ernments to come is to make this common project feasible to
fossil fuels into one that is sustained in renewable energies [3]. provide the necessary support especially with sufficient resources.
During these last two decades, both governments, regulatory If necessary, make this so-called ecological transition viable from
bodies and other private sector organizations have exposed the the legal side that the current president of the Republic of Ecuador
need to increase the proportion of renewable energies as a real It has declared it with a view to 2050 and that is found in national
option in the fight against climate change to reduce Greenhouse decree 59 [52]. These actions undertaken without being mean are
Gas (GHG) emissions [36]. The Paris Agreement in 2015 was of fully linked to the policies of the Rafael Correa government
collective interest and above all it seeks to truncate the increase in embodied in the National Plan for Good Living and in the future
global temperature below 2 C [37]. These agreements, within their these actions must continue along the same lines [53].
objectives, clearly establish the use of renewable energy (RE), Hydroelectric plants have played an important role as a per-
application of energy efficiency and government maneuvers to manent source of energy worldwide. However, at the island level it
reach social agreements with the firm purpose of reducing emis- has not been an important source of contribution due to its
sions to the atmosphere [38]. Among the main members is the geographical conditions at the ocean level [54]. Consequently,
European Union (EU) which set a goal of reducing emissions at least historically they have been supplied by fossil fuels and are currently
40% compared to 1990 emission levels by 2030. In this regard, the in a decarbonization process. Among them is the case of the island
EU also envisaged increasing the renewable energy mix by 27% by in Croatia [55], that of Porto Santo in Portugal that includes the use
2030 [39]. As we specify for the EU, there are different initiatives of electric vehicles [56], in the same way, in the Canary Islands they
worldwide that make all the necessary efforts in order to comply already have a transition model to use clean energy to supply
with the Paris agreement, among them are the countries of Senegal electricity. Electricity demand, which includes heating and cooling
[40], Japan [41], Guatemala [42], South Africa [43], which due to in hotels [57]. Other authors such as F. Calise et al. [58] and Sandrine
their budgets and legal order in Several of them are limited but seek Selosse [59] presented their studies to transform their energy
to meet these objectives of having 100% renewable energy systems systems from fossil fuels to one sustained in renewable energies
by 2050. but on a larger scale with aggressive investment.
Individual countries can establish their own more ambitious Several authors consider that an energy transition must be
goals. For example, Germany's goal is to 45% of renewable energy responsible, always having as the main objective the availability
consumption by 2025, 55%e60% by 2035 and 80% by 2050 [44]. The and quality of energy for current and future demand [37,57]. In this
largest countries from the point of view of energy markets such as regard, the transition entails increasing higher levels of penetration
the United States and China, have defined mutual agreements on of renewable energies in compensation for the reduction of energy
energy policy to promote the use of RE and mitigate climate change produced by fossil fuels [60]. On the other hand, an increasing
[45], especially within its objectives it is contemplated to reduce demand requires satisfying its energy demands, however due to the
the consumption of coal and to substantially improve the energy strategy it must be carried out with renewable energy [61]. It is
efficiency. here where policies, economic investments, technical analysis must
The International Energy Agency (IEA) [46] in its special report be integrated into a single purpose, which is the protection of hu-
reveals how the world electricity sector can achieve deep decar- man beings and their environment [38].
bonization by 2050. The established path specifies that the global At the island level, it is very positive to use renewable energy
demand for Electricity in 2050 is approximately 9% less than now, systems that can be used according to their meteorological po-
but it will have to serve an economy twice the current one and a tential. According to the different experiences, wind and solar en-
population of 2 billion additional people. ergy have been of enormous benefit and form hybrid systems
This implies that the different energy units will have to do more together with other contributions that in the medium term also
201
include diesel and gasoline generators. Among these investigations public policies and public-private and community initiatives must
we have the one carried out by Paúl Arevalo [62] in which the be developed and complied with that promote the transition to-
performance of a hybrid PV/HKT/WT system is analyzed in wards sustainable production and consumption systems that will
conjunction with a diesel generator. N Ghorbani by Ref. [63] pre- lead Ecuador towards net zero emissions by the year 2050 [31].
sented a hybrid system that includes a gasoline generator to solve Ultimately, the spirit of these policies is not only a production based
the problems of shortage of electricity at affordable costs. on clean energy but also requires the migration of obsolete and
At the level of Ecuador, the country in which this study is carried polluting technologies at the demand level for more environmen-
out, after having bad experiences due to oil activity with dire tally friendly systems. Progress in this sense is in constant progress
consequences due to oil spills and damage to nature in the country, and is based on the Montecristi constitution of 2008, although
considered modifying the 2008 constitution to include important there are different kinds of questions, it must be recognized that it
aspects such as providing rights to nature and the promotion of has become a legal tool that has allowed the positive articulation of
renewable energies [25,34]. In the last decade, several national energy policies [74]. The enactment of the energy efficiency law is
projects have been put into operation, among them the wind farm seen as positive as they bring various requirements [75]. Among its
in the Loja province [64] and the hybrid wind-photovoltaic system clauses, it is intended that new purchases of public transport ve-
for the Santa Cruz and Baltra islands in Galapagos [33] to more than hicles be electric from 2025. These actions will be joint and with the
the hydroelectric plants like Coca Codo Sinclair, Mazar, San Fran- corresponding socialization of the citizens, so that together with
cisco [65]. The aim is not only to satisfy the current demand, but the municipalities, effective strategies are established so that they
also the necessary energy of the future demand due to the increase become a reality in each territorial district. Other important ini-
in population [66]. tiatives are those carried out in the city of Cuenca, where the 4 Ríos
Recent research by the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB), tram was recently implemented [76]. On the other hand, the change
published in its gazette contemplate that climate change would from induction electric stoves to the typical PLG-based stoves are
cost the region between 1.5% and 5% of regional GDP [67]. For this also contributing to increase the levels of energy efficiency at the
reason, there are a series of actions undertaken in South America in household level [77].
order to take appropriate actions, including a series of renewable In the comprehensive study of the world's energy interaction
energy auctions, especially to implement wind and solar energy addressed by the IEA on how to make the energy transition to a net
projects. Among the latest auctions are those in Colombia, in which zero energy system by 2050 [78]. Among the purposes of the
it is confirmed that around 80 additional renewable energy projects analysis is to guarantee a quality and affordable energy supply,
will enter by the end of 2021 [68]. On the other hand, Ecuador providing universal access to energy and with it the localities have a
announced a new 350 MW Renewable Energy auction between solid economic growth. Having an adequate electrical service leads
photovoltaic and wind energy, and this year it will cover an in- to an economically productive and profitable path in which no
vestment of USD 300 million [69]. For its part, the National Energy citizen in the world should be deprived of these benefits. The re-
Commission of Chile issued the Preliminary Bases for the National sponsibility for the availability of electricity services belongs to the
and International Public Tender for the Supply of Energy and countries, in this sense the governments of the day must
Electric Power, which will auction 2,310 GWh to supply the energy strengthen state policies that lead to the maximum levels of
needs of regulated customers of the National Electric System, to penetration in their territories [79]. However, it can be seen that the
from the year 2026, for 15 years [70]. depletion of oil reserves in different countries becomes a risk of
At the country level, there has always been great concern for the shortages if there are no effective and timely actions. The energy
fragile Galapagos ecosystem, an economy based on the rational use transition is a reality for fighting in favor of the planet and also in
of the natural resources available in the Archipelago has been the fight against shortages in the face of growing demand. Coun-
promoted. The purpose has always been the conservation of the tries that do not have energy development plans and still rely on oil
Islands, maintaining respect for the ecosystem and adding value to may have serious future problems if they do not take precautions
the services within the territory [27]. Additionally, there is a Ter- from now on [80]. As a result of a timely transition it leads to a
ritorial Ordering Plan (TOP) that governs the Province in accor- portal to a clean, dynamic and resilient energy economy dominated
dance with the OCTOAD that gives Decentralized Autonomous by renewable energies such as solar and wind. There is still un-
Governments administrative, financial and economic autonomy certainty about the strategic role that bioenergy, carbon capture
[71]. However, in high investment projects, the Ecuadorian central and changes in the energy market will play to reach net zero [81].
government promotes various projects at the country level that, as In the Ecuadorian electricity market, you can already clearly see
the Galapagos Islands have a special regime, can achieve more three competitors on different lanes that seek to supply energy and
benefits, which also depends on the inter-institutional efforts and heat to growing economic sectors. This dispute is between coal,
agreements that they carry out in terms of energy policy and renewable energy and natural gas. Coal is the oldest but still in force
development sustainable [72]. To achieve effectiveness in the ac- that refuses to leave the market and that is not only present in
tions that are undertaken in the medium and long term, it is Ecuador but in most of the countries of the world. New investment
necessary to draw up a roadmap that is currently not available for decisions have come to a standstill or are taking too long, except for
the Galapagos Archipelago [73]. In this research we consider it with the transnationals that are trying to get hold of new state conces-
100% decarbonization by 2050 with the inclusion of potential sions. They try to continue with the exploitation of certain in-
renewable energy sources. frastructures that use coal and in some way they have influenced by
Among the objectives of the National Plan All a Life (NPAL) delaying the processes in favor of the protection of the planet [82].
2017e2021, in its fourth paragraph, it is considered to increase Imran Hanif [83] presented an economic analysis with the use of
electricity generation through clean energy from 68.8% to 90% by renewable energies for Latin America and the Caribbean. On the
the end of 2021 [69]. The current government of President Guil- other hand, David Jacobs et al. [84] presented an analysis to make
lermo Lazo also points to a line of environmental protection, which the Latin American electricity market more attractive based on
is why in his first days in office he issued Executive Decree No. 59, incentives with an accessible tariff structure. In this sense, renew-
changing the name of the Ministry of Environment and Water to able energies challenge coal and seek to permanently put it out of
that of the Ministry of the Environment, Water and Ecological the game for a future that seems to be much more hopeful for these
Transition. In that same decree in article 6, it is considered that clean energies based on new investments. In relation to the third
202
competitor that is natural gas in the Ecuadorian market, it also energy while there is a demand that pollutes incessantly. The needs
seeks to keep supplying the residential sector sustained on the are different and in Fig. 3, these areas are distinguished. Among the
basis of state subsidies but closely watches renewable energies that most important are those of lighting, district heating, refrigeration,
are penetrating the market with prices that tend to fall and that transport [90].
they are gaining ground little by little based on efficiency policies, In Ecuador there is an organic energy efficiency law issued on
especially with a model based on changing induction electric stoves March 15, 2019, which is based on promoting efficient, rational use
for LPG. and sustainable energy in all its forms, in order to increase the
The last governments have given incentives for citizens to country's energy security. This law promotes increasing energy
choose to purchase electric stoves by establishing that consumers productivity, promoting the competitiveness of the national econ-
with less than 100 kWh pay lower prices. These government ini- omy, build a culture of environmental sustainability and energy
tiatives are provided thanks to the high levels of electricity pro- efficiency, contribute to the mitigation of climate change and
duction from the new renewable energy generation plants that guarantee the rights of people to live in a pollution-free
were incorporated in the last 15 years. The IEA in its recent publi- environment.
cation [85] announced that the power generation technologies that Different researchers around the world are committed to
have a remarkable growth and that are sure to be the future of providing sufficient guidelines for the energy transition to be car-
world energy are wind, solar photovoltaic and hydroelectric history ried out in a planned way. P Laha et al. [91] maximizes renewable
that will remain in the time and is shown in Fig. 2. These tech- energy for India with a view to 2040, in the same way Hans
nologies that are constantly developing more efficient products at Christian Gils and Sonja Simon [92] projected a 100% renewable
lower prices than currently expected tend to outperform coal [86]. system for the Canary Islands. Other authors consider that there are
According to projections for 2040 [87,88], sources with low carbon various factors that are affecting their renewable energy systems to
percentages will be present within the global energy mix in at least reach 100% by 2040. However, they see positive the efforts made by
50% of total electricity. different governments and consider it possible that policies and
It is clear that the key to transforming the world's energy sys- investments give good results to the year 2050. In this sense,
tems depends on the rates of renewable energy production in each several researchers presented their studies, among them: A Sadiqa
country with clear policies and important budgets. There is also et al. [93] outlines the roadmap for a 100% renewable energy sys-
another aspect of concern for international organizations, which is tem with storage for Pakistan. Vincent Krakowski et al. [94] con-
the promotion of energy efficiency improvements. It is not only a ducted a prospective analysis to completely transform the French
question of increasing production levels with clean energy, but that power system to 100%. Markus Doepfert and Rui Castro [95] con-
this energy is well used and, above all, at the demand level, the ducted a study of techno-economic optimization for a 100%
environment is not polluted. It does not make sense to have clean renewable energy system in Portugal with a view to 2050 with a
Fig. 2. World energy scenario to 2040 [89].
203
Fig. 3. Evolution of energy consumption worldwide by sector until 2040 presented by Ref. [89].
large proportion of hydroelectric energy. demand while maintaining the robustness of the system. The
Analyzed in detail in the Latin American countries, there are few analysis also focuses on avoiding depending on a single generation
studies that present 100% renewable proposals [96,97]. However, it technology and rather it is recommended to have a mix of tech-
is presumed that the region is making enormous economic and nologies in order to maintain the balance of the electrical system
political efforts to leave behind the energy systems based on fossil with the support of storage systems. Another important point
fuels. Compared with the studies and roadmaps prepared in considered is the socioeconomic cost of new implementations and
different countries of Europe and Asia, there is no point of com- the cost of replacing polluting sources. The challenge is that the
parison of the concern that other continents do have, which is even direct or indirect costs are the lowest possible and the projections
the motivation to carry out this research for the Galapagos Islands. allow to obtain effective solutions but never disturb the demand or
In this regard, Ecuador, a country that, although it is striving to affect the population from the monetary point of view, seeking a
change its energy matrix, requires a long-term roadmap in both projection that is as realistic as possible and 100% renewable energy
Continental Ecuador and Insular Ecuador (Galapagos) with the is reached by 2050 for Galapagos.
clear purpose of establishing how it would be carried out. Carry out
the energy transition by taking advantage of the potential sources
of renewable energy that is very rich in this country. These reasons,
motivate us to carry out the study and make visible important
2. Methodology
growth opportunities for the Galapagos Archipelago that will not
only be beneficial for this country but for humanity itself as it is a
In this research, it is to draw the roadmap for the decarbon-
unique ecosystem on the planet and requires concrete actions. In
ization of Galapagos. Special aspects are considered to draw the
what is developing in the country, it can be indicated that the short-
scenarios according to what is recommended by Ref. [95]. Is
term scenario has the approval made by CELEC and MEER, they are
considered in the methodology the availability of resources for the
entities that developed the 2016e2025 Electrification Master Plan.
use of new technologies based on certain feasible sources of
This plan contemplated the entry into operation of several gener-
renewable energy and subsequently evaluate the technical and
ation plants in 2019, specifically 5 hydroelectric plants and 2 NGCC
socioeconomic impacts. There are three important phases during
centrals. In 2020, other new power generation centrals came into
the methodological analysis: The data entry phase and the available
operation with the technical contribution of China, of these 8 are
resources, the adjustment or calibration phase subject to state
hydroelectric. By the end of 2021, 2 renewable energy plants of 250
policies that have a direct impact on the site under study. Addi-
and 125 MW are expected to come into operation and some private
tionally, indirect aspects are considered, such as the collateral ef-
producers will start operating with 150 MW in the coastal region.
fects of international pressure and global technological
By 2022, it is considered that the operational tests will be
development, which above all allow access to products and services
completed and 2 hydroelectric plants of 915 MW will operate and
at economically accessible prices, ensuring flexibility in operations.
other projects for the generation of renewable energy for 200 MW
Finally, the technologies and socioeconomic results valued ac-
will also be completed. After 2022, different renewable energy
cording to the demand are presented. It is also important to high-
projects, especially solar photovoltaic, such as Aromo, Villonaco II
light that it is vital to evaluate the initial state and for this it is
and III, Minas de Huascachaca, among others, have been planned.
considered a base year, the current percentages of fuels that are
The purpose of this article is to model a technically feasible 100%
being used in the national market must also be assessed. Exact data
renewable energy system for the Galapagos Islands. Statistical data
of the CO2 that is currently and historically being emitted into the
and penetration rates of certain technologies can be exploited on-
atmosphere are entered to correct and that in the future do not
site based on their energy potential and population growth [51].
have a negative impact. By 2050, the complete decarbonization of
On the other hand, the renewable energy projections that are made
the Galapagos Islands is considered, it implies a progressive process
must progressively replace polluting energy sources. It is not
of reducing polluting sources and, on the other hand, an increase in
possible to root out fossil fuels due to economic factors and, above
renewables in the coming years, also covering the growing
all, it must be ensured that the electricity service is catered for on
demand.
204
2.1. Long-term projection model order to identify that these investments are feasible.
Despite the great benefits of EnergyPLAN that were mentioned
Currently it is very useful to rely on specialized software to carry above and that make the difference with other models, it is also
out projections in the medium and long term. EnergyPLAN is a necessary to point out that there are some drawbacks and that they
model used effectively to design smart energy systems. This model must be considered. The main drawback of simulating the base year
was worked on and developed by the Aalborg University [99]. It lies in the conception of the EnergyPlan platform, since in principle
started with version 6.1 in 2006, very interesting and with great the simulator was developed to simulate future scenarios but not to
features, however, as different researchers used this tool, it has model the current operation of energy systems.
given rise to important modifications in which much more flexible
analyzes can be carried out. There are 32 versions available and the 3. Energy matrix in the Galapagos Archipelago
latest one is 16.1 downloadable from July 2021. It is specialized
software that allows the integration of medium and large-scale According to the official reports of the Electric Regulation and
renewable energies within the energy system of countries, cities Control Agency (ARCONEL), the electric system operates indepen-
or regions [100]. Among the different outstanding investigations dently by islands. The four inhabited islands are the following: San
that have been carried out worldwide and that integrate renewable Cristo bal, Santa Cruz, Floreana and Isabela. From the very operation
energies are: that of the Colombian case [101], that of Sichuan, of the system, its evolution is accentuated in three stages. The first
China [102], that of Portugal [95], the Italian [103], among others. In two stages had as a common denominator for a traditional use of
the literature on energy transition and planning of renewable en- fossil fuels for power generation. In the first stage, goes back to the
ergy systems, there are different models, each with its own par- year 1961e1999, the entity that was in charge was the National
ticularities. In this sense, there are excellent analyzes of the benefits Institute of Technology of Ecuador (INECEL) being responsible for
of each one carried out by Refs. [95,98]. It is also discussed very well the management, operation and maintenance of the GES. At this
in Ref. [75] to obtain optimal combinations of renewable energies stage the islands were sparsely inhabited, only the capital Puerto
according to the benefits of each territory. Different points of view Baquerizo Moreno and the Charles Darwin station, had electricity
and objectives are structured, including the inclusion of electric service.
vehicles [97], heating and cooling services [57]. This model allows With the altruistic support of the United States, at the end of
us to carry out simulations of 100% renewable energy systems for 1967 a gasoline generator was installed on the most inhabited is-
the Galapagos Archipelago or also known as the Galapagos Islands. land of Santa Cruz. In mid-1974, the construction of the local public
The final stage it takes advantage of the renewable resources electricity distribution network began. The interest in having
available and sufficient to supply the growing demand in accor- electricity increased among its inhabitants by making use of the
dance with the ordinances that govern the occupation of urban and small local network implemented [104]. With this, in 1980 the
rural land in Galapagos [4] as a special regime of Ecuador. The islands already had three electric generators, two of 50 kW and one
typical input parameters recommended by Ref. [100] are specif- of 80 kW. The difficulty they had was the supply of fuel to power
ically the demands, capacities of each generation unit, storage the installed generators. They had to have boats and travel once a
systems, current consumption of fossil fuels by each sector, fuel month to the port of Guayaquil. After the national reforms at the
costs, investments, operation and maintenance, costs fixed and end of this stage, the INECEL company was ceased and a new
variable [99]. electricity distribution company created E. E. GALAPAGOS A. S
Currently in the Archipelago fuel costs are excessively high, [105]. This company took over the entire existing electrical system
especially due to the transportation costs involved in moving to the that included the generation, transmission and distribution of
islands, which is not commensurate with the country's economy by electrical energy in the archipelago.
subsidizing these resources. Ecuador's oil reserves are in frank In the second stage, runs from 1999 to 2008, power generation
depletion, the times when a barrel of oil exceeded $100 in the in- increased in Galapagos given the growing demand, especially from
ternational market to soften the economy was left behind and most foreigners and from continental Ecuador due to the excellent living
countries do not consider supplying oil and rather their in- conditions that were present in the inhabited islands. In this way, E.
vestments are focused on renewable. It is not intended to nip these E. GALAPAGOS A. S. already established itself as a solid company
polluting sources in the bud, the purpose is to reduce it progres- and began to gain an image in the eyes of citizens by providing a
sively until 2050 with 100% of the renewable energy for Galapagos. high-quality 24-h electrical service for the first time in 2001 [4]. In
EnergyPLAN is a very reliable and currently established tool to 2007, the archipelago's electrical system reached an installed po-
carry out different investigations that involve the analysis and wer of 6.29 MW with the increase of fossil fuels [106]. In this period,
design of 100% renewable energy systems. This model in its although there was an increase in the production of electrical en-
recently available version 16.1 is shown in Fig. 4. The model has ergy, Galapagos became dependent on fossil fuels to meet the
excellent features, much easier to use, very versatile, allows a increasing demand since then. It was unfortunate that in this
technical analysis, energy exchange analysis between adjacent period due to the high dependence on fossil fuels, the fragile
markets and feasibility studies. In the end, the energy balances are ecosystem was the one that received the greatest impacts, such as
obtained as results, in addition to the detail of the annual pro- fuel spills, the strong and suffocating smell of these fuels affected
duction by source. It is possible later to evaluate the economic the flora, fauna and the same being human, that even tourists did
benefits that are achieved in the defined periods, including taxes not invite a new visit due to these conditions on the islands [107].
and costs for CO2 emissions. This did not stop there with the increase in greenhouse gas emis-
EnergyPLAN is an hourly simulation model, unlike models based sions, but several fuel spills ended the lives of species as sea travel
on annual demand and production with aggregation. Consequently, began to be more recurrent. Examples of these bad experiences
it is possible to analyze the influence of intermittent renewable resulting from using fossil fuels are the Island of Santa Cruz [108]
energy systems that interact in the system as a whole. The model and the one that occurred in the capital Puerto Baquerizo Moreno
optimizes the operation of a system under study unlike the classic located on the island of San Cristo bal [109].
models that consider the optimization of investments in the sys- In the third stage that includes from 2008 to the present, the
tem. However, after analyzing the different systems globally, it is new constitution of Ecuador is considered after promulgated, in
possible to consider the investments, the model can be used in which rights are granted to nature and one of the support pillars is
205
Fig. 4. Model for long-term analysis. Version 16.1 EnergyPLAN [99].
renewable energy. At the beginning of this period, the figure of although much remains to be deployed. It is made up of photo-
President Rafael Correa emerged, who firmly generated substantial voltaic and wind power plants. Thermal generation that depends
proposals to be analyzed in the National Assembly and with it the on high levels of fuels, especially diesel, cannot be eliminated
legal framework to guide initiatives to change the energy matrix in outright, but a systematic reduction of these contributions is
the country [110]. The Ecuadorian government was really con- required and renewable sources must be increased instead. This
cerned about the Ecuadorian situation and in particular the Gal- research presents the roadmap to fulfill this purpose in a horizon to
apagos Islands for what was considered a special regime and with 2050 in accordance with the national objective promoted by the
it, the ecological viability, economic and social sustainability [111]. current President of the Republic Guillermo Lazo [118]. Details are
From here, the Zero Fossil Fuels in Galapagos (ZFFG) initiative is presented in the following sections.
promoted [112], which has as its main objective the decarbon-
ization of the Galapagos Islands, thereby eradicating the use of 3.1. Wind power
pesticides, petroleum distillates, poor use of the soil and the search
to exploit the existing renewable resources in the archipelago [113]. Several studies have analyzed with interest the preponderant
To achieve this purpose, it was taken into account that it was not role that renewable energies will play in the Galapagos Islands.
enough to produce clean energy when, on the other hand, there Regarding wind energy, there are already two very good experi-
was a polluting demand, for this reason several initiatives arose and ences with wind farms located on two different islands. The first
the most influential one started with the National Energy Efficiency project became a reality in May 2015 on San Cristobal Island, spe-
Plan (PLANEE) [114], which aims to change inefficient refrigerators cifically on the El Tropezo n mountain with coordinates
for new ones [115], the increase in electric vehicles, the efficient (0.892639 , 89.498806 ). According to data from the wind
cooking program using induction electric cookers [116], among speed profile at the site provided by Ref. [119], a maximum speed of
others. The urban order and the repowering of the electrical dis- 12.8 m/s and an average of 5.7 m/s were obtained. The investment
tribution networks were considered and extensively worked to reached 10 million dollars, which consisted in putting into opera-
move the aerial networks to underground after being resized. The tion three identical AE-59 turbines of 800 kW each, providing
drawbacks of a total and orderly decarbonization not only thinking 2.4 MW of installed capacity. The towers are 51.5 m high and the
about the present but also in future generations and achieving blades have a diameter of 59 m. This first project was recognized for
sustainability in the Galapagos Islands have been discussed by being economically and financially sustainable, with a total turn-
Ref. [117]. In addition, after putting into effect the new constitution over approximately 3.4 million USD during the 8 years of operation
and national policies to implement the CCFG, the challenge in the [120].
GES is very great and above all, sufficient resources are needed to The framework agreement for the sale of energy was signed
reach 100% renewable energy. These unconventional power gen- with the company local electricity company ELECGALAPAGOS S.A.
eration systems are viable in the archipelago thanks to the fact that in charge of covering operating costs and maintenance. It was
mainly wind and solar photovoltaic resources are quite attractive. capitalized under an innovative scheme with funds from the United
Currently, the provision of renewable energy in the GES is a reality, Nations Foundation (UNF), United Nations Development Program
206
(UNDP), the Ecuadorian Government, income tax donations from

private contributors and Global Sustainable Electricity Partnership
(GSEP) member companies [121]. This was the first wind project in
Ecuador, it began to operate regularly at the end of 2007 [122].
Since 2016, this system generates over 16 GWh of electricity.
The second wind farm was implemented under an agreement
between the Ministry of Electricity and Renewable Energy (MEER)
and the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) on the is-
land of Baltra at cost of 10 million dollars [123,124]. This park is
located next to the Seymour airport (0 26 '31.2", 90 150 57.2")
has a nominal capacity of 2.25 MW thanks to its three 750 kW
Unison U57 turbines. This wind power plant is interconnected with
a substation in Puerto Ayora through a 34.5 kV transmission line.
This line has a distance of 50 km, has several sections between air,
underground and submarine. Thanks to this implementation,
99,763 gallons of diesel are saved per year, an amount equivalent to
almost 300,000 gallons of diesel used between 2014 and 2017
[125].
In Fig. 5 shows the wind map of Galapagos thanks to reference
[126] there are three substantial components that are identified.
The first is that, being islands, the winds in the open sea are a bit Fig. 6. Global Horizontal Irradiation (GHI) map in the Galapagos Islands. Adapted
unpredictable and turbulent, very different from those obtained at Global Solar Atlas 2.0 [132].
the level of the mountains of the continent. In the second it is
identified that the currents of trade winds are limited due to the
elevation levels of the volcanic areas, similar to ramps that create potential for photovoltaic energy generation in the vicinity of the
steep slopes that together form a kind of tunnels [119]. The wind at volcanoes, especially on Isabela Island, it is not advisable to
certain points coalesces and forms tunnels that can be better used implement at these points for safety against volcanic eruptions that
for these power generation purposes. are forecast to occur on an average every six years [127]. The high
solar radiation in the Galapagos Archipelago, becomes key to in-
crease the generation of clean energy and make the long-awaited
3.2. Solar energy PV energy transition a reality.
To date, Galapagos already has solar implementations on its
The archipelago has exceptional solar potential, receives a sub- islands. Examples are: The Santa Cruz plant with an installed ca-
stantial amount of light as perpendicular as possible and is very pacity of 1.52 MW that supplies 7.03% of the island's electricity
aligned to the equatorial line. Using the Global Solar Atlas (GSA) demand. The generated power is injected into the E. E. GALAPAGOS
shown in Fig. 6, the Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) values range substation through an overhead transmission line at 13.8 kV,
from 1600 to 2250 kWh/m2/year [55]. According to EMP, the areas 0.7 km long [105,128]. This plant cost around eight million dollars
with the highest potential for photovoltaic solar exploitation are: and was financed by the Ministry of Electricity and Renewable
the coastal strip of Baltra, the coasts of Santa Cruz, central part of Energies (MEER), the Korea-KOICA International Cooperation
bal, north and south of Florida and the port Villamil in the
San Cristo Agency and E. E. GALAPAGOS [129].
south of Isabela. Is important to note that although there is a high Another solar plant is located in Baltra with installed power of
70 kW and has a storage system for lead-acid batteries (500 kW,
4000 kWh) and rechargeable lithium-ion batteries (500 kW,
268 kWh) [130]. In addition, the Solar PV Eolicsa plant of San
bal has an installed power of 10 kW, while the Perla Solar PV
Cristo
plant on the island of Floreana has an installed power of 20 kW. It
also stands out that the Galapagos Islands have remote and private
systems on the Isabela, Floreana and Santa Cruz Islands, each with
an installed power of 10 kW [131]. There are several projects
planned by the state with a view to 2030, mainly on the islands
Isabela and San Cristo bal, including seven photovoltaic solar plants
with a total installed power of 12.9 MWp [35].
3.3. Geothermal energy
The Galapagos Islands contain individual volcanic peaks, Isabela

Island is the largest and is made up of six peaks as shown in Fig. 7.
Most of the islands are the product of volcanic eruptions, only the
Baltra and Santa Fe islands are elevations product of fault blocks,
without central volcanoes. In Galapagos, a geothermal energy
project (renewable energy obtained through heat from the interior
of the earth) has already been studied since May 2019 to take
advantage of the natural resources that the Archipelago has in a
Fig. 5. Map of average wind speed in the Galapagos Islands. Adapted with Global Wind sustainable way [133]. Fernandina Island has been a study objective
Atlas [126]. of high interest to generate electricity, heating, absorption cooling
207
and the presence of tourists and, therefore, the largest amount of

garbage. There, waste collection went from 5,000 tons in 2015 to
6,100 tons in 2018.
Another important source of generation that is currently being
useful is biogas. It arises from the high production of livestock in
large areas that are very humid and available with grass. Currently
Galapagos has a quality cattle population of around 10,000 animal
heads distributed in the four main islands. Even according to ex-
periences in other countries, bobbin manure can be very useful for
power generation purposes, which have not yet been carried out in
the Galapagos Islands. The methane transformation rate by anaer-
obic digestion is 0.04 m3 of CH4/kg in this type of manure due to the
solid waste from these cattle oscillates between 10 and 15 kg/day
[139]. A conventional tubular biogas digester can produce a quan-
tity of 9450m3/day of biogas and produces 56,700 kWh of energy
that becomes a promising alternative. Additionally, 16,500 m3/
month of biofertilizers can be marketed.
3.5. Wave energy
The Galapagos Islands are located 1000 km away from the

Ecuadorian coasts, they are located in the open sea and receive
water currents from the Pacific Ocean, they have enormous po-
Fig. 7. Location of the volcanoes in the Galapagos Islands for the purpose of harnessing
geothermal energy, adapted from [137]. tential to take advantage of wave energy [140], which would
diversify the energy matrix Galapagos and would contribute to
decarbonization. In this context, the MEER made contact in 2012 for
or direct use of the high temperatures achieved by keeping dis- the first time with SDE Energy Ltd with the purpose of taking
tances of security [134]. advantage of this technology that can be very useful in the islands
In all of Ecuador, the exploitation of 50 MW in geothermal en- [141]. These wave power plants are expected to be implemented in
ergy is planned in the short term, as officially stated by the Ministry all inhabited islands, covering at least 60% of the financing from the
of Energy and Non-Renewable Natural Resources of Ecuador [135]. central government.
Of these 50 MW, given the special conditions in the Galapagos
Islands, it is considered that at least 20 MW can be exploited in the 4. Analysis
Archipelago.
Earthquakes and eruptions are common on the islands. More A 100% renewable scheme for Galapagos has been of high in-
than 50 volcanic eruptions have been recorded since the early 19th terest to the governments of the day, but only in the government of
century. The islands show other signs of volcanic activity such as President Guillermo Lazo a horizon to 2050 is proposed and a
fumaroles, lava tubes, sulfur fields and pumice stone. One of the transition ministry is available [118]. However, the mechanisms are
most notable characteristics of the volcanoes in Galapagos is their still lacking and long-term planned actions, which in this manu-
parasitic cones; there are about 2000 of them on the slopes of the script has been a motivation to draw up the roadmap. Because it is a
20 largest mountains, and many of them still erupt [136]. biodiverse and fragile ecosystem and of high value for humanity,
decarbonization in Galapagos should even be considered for a
shorter period, however, being consistent and realistic with the
3.4. Biomass limited economy of Ecuador, it is considered that 2050 is a possible
year of fulfill the energy transition in the Archipelago as conceived
The principle of obtaining energy from biomass can be of animal by various regions and countries worldwide [91,95,98]. Oil is
or vegetable origin. It is obtained naturally or artificially in plants currently taking a back seat in the world, continuing with a scheme
implemented for this purpose. Matter is transformed into energy that is being relegated can be a serious mistake and the risk of
according to specific defined processes. Galapagos in particular has shortages can end up paying a high price to future generations. As
a large amount of forests and vegetation of different types that with dire experiences were analyzed in the previous sections, particu-
proper planning can be used in the future and avoid setting fire in larly Galapagos has been hit hard by oil spills and the impacts of
the open as is done today. continuing to use fuels have been seen as negative aspects in the
According to Fig. 8 (a) and Fig. 8 (b), the distribution of the soil of international community. The design of 100% renewable systems
the Galapagos Archipelago is classified, comprising 147,135,404 entails an immense but encouraging challenge in the search to
total km2. Forests occupy the largest amount of territory with 33.6% integrate a high percentage of intermittent resources to the power
of the total area, while Herbaceous vegetation and Bare/sparse system periodically with defined economic resources to cover the
vegetation occupy 19.23% and 13.77% respectively. All these forests needs that this transition entails in the course of time until covering
and types of vegetation require harvests at the right time, so all fully to the year 2050. It is an important time for the archipelago but
these wastes can be very well used on the islands for generation it does not depend on a single government, it requires a true
purposes and avoid the use of fossil fuels. Table 1 shows the dis- commitment at the country level to progressively meet the de-
tribution of the territory of the islands by segments. mands with the contribution of clean energy and the role is of the
Another important part is the proper use of municipal solid leaders of the day. The Galapagos archipelago has taken important
waste. In 2018, around 9,000 tons of waste were collected in the steps to initiate this energy transition, but it is necessary to accel-
three cantons of Galapagos: Isabela, San Cristo bal and Santa Cruz. erate these processes and the local government is key to fulfilling
This last Canton is the one with the largest number of inhabitants this desire. The experiences that have been achieved in the
208
Fig. 8. Classification of the territory in the Galapagos Islands. (a) The forest predominates (green color) and two types of vegetation (yellow and gray) (b) Percentages of soil
distribution according to [138].
Archipelago are highlighted in the previous sections of this of the economy, this is where the options available to satisfy this
manuscript in great detail and the power values that have been purpose of decarbonization of the Galapagos Islands are presented.
incorporated are specified. EnergyPLAN is a powerful and versatile tool, very valuable to design
In this section and the next ones, it is detailed how the energy 100% extractable energy systems according to the reality of each
system under study would be structured, the exploitable renewable place, these statements can be verified in [142e147].
energy resources available in the study area are channeled and for
this the EnergyPLAN software is used as a proven and very useful
tool to carry out these projections [100]. In the final part, the eco-
nomic scenarios will be indicated, which is the most sensitive part
209
Table 1
Installed power in galapagos islands.
Island Renewable Energy (kW) Thermoelectricity (kW) TOTAL (kW)
Biomass Wind Solar PV Diesel
Santa Cruz 2250 1575 14,950 18,775

bal
San Cristo 2400 12 9450 11,862
Isabela 930 3250 4180
Floreana 138 26 164
TOTAL 138 4650 2543 27,650 34,981
4.1. Referential framework of the EnergyPLAN model for the newspapers are included. of prestige that are building the base year,
Galapagos Archipelago which in this case is the year 2020. This initial scenario provides a
general panorama in which parts of the system the renewable
To carry out the transition process, EnergyPLAN considers a base energy levels can be increased and in what proportion the inci-
year with installed capacity data as a reference and only from there dence of fuels can be limited fossils to design a 100% renewable
is it fully studied, in our case 2020 to 2050. The EnergyPLAN tool is future scheme on that basis [142]. The analysis becomes fantastic
used to analyze the energy forecast comparatively with long-term and its results rest on a feasible structural basis but it also gives rise
future electricity demand. Historical data for 2019 are included to to the construction of scenarios according to the analyzes that are
serve as a reference for the beginning of 2020 (See Table 2). Several needed. In this case, it is analyzed from the economic point of view
studies have been developed and have served as a reference to where investment is a key aspect that requires a special analysis, to
understand the dynamics of energy systems between supply and the point that options are presented so that the purpose of having
demand, they are comprehensively evaluated and focus on the completely decarbonized islands is fulfilled. The data that will be
levels of contribution from each source and possible intermediate supported to finally obtain the results of the scenario design until
income from other sources in the period of analysis. For this reason, 2050 are considered feasible and recommendable.
EnergyPLAN is a dynamic tool and has been characterized by its
great benefits to analyze future energy systems that go beyond 20,
30 years or even many more. Since the first versions developed in 4.2. Energy model with a vision to 2050
the EnergyPLAN platform, different researchers have verified its
excellent performance, even so there are new elements for 4.2.1. Technical effects
improvement that allow the analysis of much larger energy mar- Is important to evaluate the level of incidence of renewable
kets, such is the case of the energy system for the entire European energies in the year defined as the transition base through
Union [148] or the case of China [149], among other cases with a Renewable Factor (RF) indicated below (1) and (2):
view to 2050 and 100% renewable. In the strict case of the Gal- P
P
apagos Islands, the particular aspects and their reference parame- Renewable Factor ðRFÞ ¼ 1 Pnonrenewable x100 (1)
ters are considered according to their reality, this is the generation Prenewable
capacity by renewable energy sources, population growth, land use
P P P P !
Pdiesel þ Pgasoline þ Pcoal þ …… Pothers nonrenewables
RF ¼ 1 P P P P x100 (2)
PPV þ Pwind þ Phydro þ …… Pother renewables
plan. The input scenario is of great importance, for this the analysis Non-renewable energies are mainly those from oil and coal
P P P
carried out in the previous sections are key aspects, the numerical derivatives expressed with Pdiesel þ Pgasoline þ Pcoal þ
P
input data obtained from previous studies, accountability reports …… Pothers nonrenewables . Other sources of a pollutant type can
from public institutions, data published and contrasted by also be evaluated depending on the reality of each country.
Table 2
Validation of the reference model for the Galapagos Islands.
Design descriptive Solar PV Wind Biomass Geothermal Others minors Oil
Time of life (years) 40 40 40 40 40 30

Credit Capacity (%) 100 50 50 50 50 100
Sending order of merit 2 1 1 1 1 2
Fuel cost ($/TOE) e e e e 37.8 398.5
Maximum availability (%) 47 65 25 35 45 25
Capital costs (thousands of USD/MW of production capacity)
2020 2543 4650 3320 680 2920 975
2050 15,570 9600 1950 1900 5450 0
Cost of O&M (thousands of USD/MW of production capacity)
2020 13 42 107 114 75 8.3
2050 10.5 62.5 88 75 55 6.6
210
Regarding renewable energy sources, they are all those that inter- statistical instrument to scale the overall achievements of a nation
vene in the energy mix such as wind, solar, hydraulic energy, in its social and financial measures. Yashwant Sawle et al. [51]
P P
among others that are of renewable origin PPV þ Pwind þ represents the HDI as the sum of the elements "y" and the control
P P
Pbiomass þ …… Pother renewables . By 2050, this factor is expected approach "z" evaluated based on equation (7) expressed below:
to be mathematically 1 ðRF ¼ 1Þ.
Evaluating the electrical system in the base year that will serve HDI ¼ 0:091 ln PLY=C þ 0:07214HDIy;z
as a reference and above all it is possible to quantify an energy
h . i
development horizon is proposed, which is to 2050 in our case, the ¼ 0:0978 PLOAD þ min fmaxSE :PSE :fmaxpload :PLOAD nHUMAN
mathematical relationship is established below (3):
X 0:319fmaxSE (7)
X X
TAPE ¼ Prene2050 P rene base year Pnonrene
Where;
(3)
fmaxSE : Element of maximum consumption of surplus electrical
Where TAPE corresponds to the Total Additional Projected Energy, energy and can be used for additional AC charging.
Prene2050 is the total supplied Power evaluated in the year 2050, PLY= : Energy yearly electricity consumption per capita in kWh/
P rene base year is the nominal power supplied in the base year that C
yr/person.
serves as a reference to carry out the projections, Pnonrene is the
PSE : Annual system surplus energy in kWh/year.
generated power non-renewable, coming from polluting sources
fmaxpload : Element that allows increasing the annual AC load and
that must be replaced by renewable energy sources typically pro-
that the maximum surplus energy can be used.
duced in the base year.
nHUMAN :Number of people consuming power generated from
The Energy Supply Ratio (ESR) is characterized by the possibility
the hybrid system.
that the renewable energies implemented in a country satisfy the
demand for electrical energy for a range of time 0 to T, as expressed
in relation (4).
4.3. Reference electricity market 2020 and time horizon 2050
X
T
Prene2050 PDEMAND 2050
ESR ¼ (4) The reference electricity market in the Galapagos Archipelago is
0
Prene2050 marked by a high rate of thermoelectricity in 3 of the four islands as
detailed in Table 1. In 2050, all the energy supply is 100% renewable
Where Prene2050 is the total renewable power supplied in 2050, and, as they are islands, the hydropower is not considered on a
PDEMAND 2050 is the projected load demand in 2050. large scale, except for the small hydro that can be harnessed from
When Prene2050 > PDEMAND 2050 There is a surplus of energy per falling water.
target year that can be used for export to neighboring countries. The highest energy production is from photovoltaic solar thanks
When Prene2050 < PDEMAND 2050 There is a shortage of energy in to the excellent solar radiation that the archipelago receives with
the target year which represents a serious inconvenience in the 46.9% but above all because it is a proven technology that is
development of the country. beginning to be strongly deployed, followed by wind and biomass
When Prene2050 ¼ PDEMAND 2050 There is a balance between with a 29.5% and 8.5% respectively. The rest of the contribution in
production and consumption of electrical energy, it is a risk point of geothermal, wave and small hydro of low scale. With energyPLAN,
energy shortage. the electric energy production profile can be seen in hourly samples
An energy storage system is important to avoid falling into a during two typical days of winter and summer analyzed by
shortage range and to take advantage of hours of excess energy. recommendation of reference [151] and is shown in Fig. 9.
In reality, the technology that will dominate the energy market
4.2.2. Cost of energy in the Galapagos Islands will be solar photovoltaic in summer. It is
This section describes the renewable energy system design reasonable that this technology is the technology of the future due
based on the cost of energy (COE), which is a well-known and to the high extractable potential. From the statistical point of view,
important factor in obtaining an optimal and profitable system. The including photovoltaics in mixed systems is common and this can
average cost per kWh of the useful electrical energy generated is be seen in several markets [92,95,98], including the production
known as COE [51]. The COE is evaluated by (5): costs of solar panels and complementary equipment tend to
decrease and it has become a technology of greater access. Wind
TNPC energy will also become of high importance, meanwhile biomass is
COE ¼ PH¼8760 x CRF (5)
H¼1 PL already being very useful in low proportions and in the future it is
considered relevant and to be taken into account. Mixed systems
Where, PL is the hourly energy consumption in kWh, TNPC is a are highly recommended, it is not necessary to depend on one or
current net total cost of $ and CRF is the capital recovery factor CRF. two sources, no matter how cheap they are, diversification is the
The CRF is a ratio used to calculate the current estimate of benefits, most appropriate. In reality, when investing economic resources,
that is, a progression of equivalent annual monetary flows. It is they must be very well analyzed, since 2020 a diversification of
evaluated by equation (6) [150]: technologies is sought and avoid risking investments targeting
certain energy sources. Currently, biomass has not had great rele-
Ið1 þ IÞN vance in the Archipelago as it has in other parts of Ecuador, how-
CRF ¼ (6)
ð1 þ IÞN 1 ever its use is a great option and should be considered within the
energy mix. On the other hand, other smaller-scale contributions
It is the real interest rate, N is the number of years. are incorporated such as small hydro, wave energy and geothermal
energy that should not for any reason be relegated since the more
4.2.3. Human Development Index (HDI) diversified the electrical system is, the more robust it is achieved
In general, the Human Development Index (HDI) is used as a globally. Below in Table 2 the summary of the main parameters of
211
Fig. 9. Combination of energy sources on typical days (a) January (b) July.
the model used is presented. summarizes the energy efficiency plans and programs for the
According to the dynamic model, EnergyPLAN includes medium Galapagos Archipelago.
and large energy capacities with a time horizon set to 2050. Within The OCTOAD indicates, in its article 111, that the leadership and
the interaction of variables, there is no specifically defined criterion definition of the management model of the strategic sectors within
to determine the final scenario, which is precisely what distin- which the energy sector is located correspond exclusively to the
guishes EnergyPLAN from various platforms. However, if specific central government. Only in the case of the province of Galapagos,
criteria are not established, it is important that the design is the twenty-eighth general provision speaks of the attributions of
consistent and well interpreted and its results do not go beyond the the Government Council of Galapagos and indicates the promotion
installed capacity and its allowable production levels. It is essential of the use of alternative energies.
to have clear policies, Land Management Plans (LMP), legal and The National Energy Agenda (NEA), prepared by the Coordi-
regulatory aspects that govern a region and in this case in the nating Ministry of Strategic Sectors (CMSS), raised as one of its
Galapagos Archipelago. This dynamic to build the final scenario is objectives an Ecuador with efficient use of energy, and establishes
not trend-oriented, but allows an interesting prospect to be among the guidelines and actions for its achievement: i) maintain a
generated in the middle of a period under analysis, so it is possible solid institutional framework for energy efficiency to guarantee its
to increase the levels of certain renewable sources, including transversality, ii) guarantee the implementation of energy effi-
gradually reducing the rates of fossil fuels. Alerts are generated ciency based on adequate planning, iii) increase the quality and
when the input parameters are such that they affect the energy optimize the management of information on energy uses, iv) sus-
system globally or their contributions are uneven for a period of tain efficiency energy on a solid regulatory framework, v)
time in relation to another that prevent full decarbonization. encourage the creation of market mechanisms and promote the
However, derailing fossil fuels from energy markets is a priority management of financing schemes for energy efficiency, vi) pro-
for the various reasons discussed in this study. However, the IEA mote the adoption of efficient behaviors in energy matters; and, vii)
[152] also has a new concern that has taken shape and that is on the train and certify experts in energy efficiency.
table for discussion in the countries, perhaps not with the haste as In compliance with the provisions above, this State Portfolio
related to energy transition, specifically the issue of energy effi- presented the National Energy Efficiency Plan 2016e2035 (PLA-
ciency. It is proposed that energy must have its proper uses and NEE) as a public policy instrument that seeks to improve energy
include saving concepts that prevent countries and regions from consumption habits, through the incorporation of energy efficiency
making excessive investments. In several cases, limiting resources, in sectors related to the provision and use of energy. With the
for example in developing countries where one of the priorities is implementation of PLANEE, Ecuador will be able to comply with
also to comply with the zero hunger program. Studies also emerge international agreements in "Guarantee access to affordable, safe,
to have the mechanisms that entail producing energy at the most sustainable and modern energy", a goal established by the United
efficient levels possible in current production systems, now Nations on the Seventh Sustainable Development Goal (SDG 7) and
recognizing the need to make greater efforts at the level of demand. “double the index global energy efficiency improvement”, an
It is there where the uses of energy are most analyzed and must be essential objective of the Sustainable Energy initiative for All
more sustainable and better used. In this regard, Table 3 already (SE4ALL).
212
Table 3
Main strategies of PLANEE 2016e2035 in force that includes the Galapagos Archipelago [153].
Defined Strategy Description
1. Project to reactivate, reconfigure and expand the vehicle RENOVA - Incorporation of hybrid, electric and new technologies vehicles that are market in the future.
plan.
2. EECCRE Implementation project in Galapagos - Definition of control and inspection mechanisms for the implementation and continuous
improvement of the EECCRE Standard - Energy Efficiency, Climate Control and Renewable Energy.
3. Loss Reduction Plan - Program to reduce energy losses in the electricity distribution system.
4. Standardization and labeling program for energy consuming - Promote the acquisition of efficient equipment in both the residential and commercial sectors.
equipment in the residential and commercial sector
5. Efficient electric cooking program - Change of electric induction stoves for liquefied petroleum gas stoves and water heating by
electricity.
6. Replacement program - Substitution of inefficient light bulbs for low consumption light bulbs in the residential sector and
the public lighting sector of the islands.
7. Training program for public workers - Promote the moderate use of electricity in public administration.
8. Energy management standards - Implementation of Energy Management Systems based on the ISO 50001 Standard in public
institutions and the sector commercial of the islands.
9. Program for the dissemination of best energy efficiency practices - It has the purpose of hosting the good experiences achieved in the Galapagos Islands and
replicating them when possible.
4.4. Results In Fig. 12 the contribution percentages for each renewable en-
ergy source are presented as of 2050.
The results are presented considering the technical and socio-
economic viability aspects of the structured electricity system to 4.5. Socioeconomic analysis
2050. The viability is marked to satisfy the demand over time, this
implies not drastically reducing polluting energies if an or more One of the problems that Ecuador permanently faces is related
renewable energy sources to replace it. Commonly, in the different to the issue of subsidies. Various social groups, including transport,
systems where EnergyPLAN intervenes, it is considered constant or an indigenous group, have taken the issue of subsidies as a flag of
a lower rate of hydroelectric production as recommended by demand to the governments of the moment before the reduction of
Dominkovic Dominik Franjo in Ref. [151] in order not to depend the quality of life. The subsidies in continental Ecuador and Insular
directly on this historically exploited source and rather to diversify Ecuador (Galapagos) are not recent, they date from 1974 as part of
the electrical system. In the case of the Galapagos Islands, specif- the state policy as a compensation to energy for the exploitation of
ically, none of the renewable energy contributions tend to remain oil in various sectors, especially in the Amazon. At that time the
constant or with a downward trend; moreover, hydroelectricity per international price of oil was very high and the compensations
reservoir is not present as there are no large rivers, only the small became an important incentive. In subsequent years, especially
hydro will be useful in a way distributed without becoming of after 1995, prices tended to fall, which prevented the state from
direct influence. Those that are going to play a leading role are solar covering the subsidies, while the unions began to protest one or
PV with 30 MW and wind power with 24 MW. Also within the another measure and on many occasions the streets were the scene
energy mix, biomass with 6 MW, geothermal with 4 MW, wave of protests. The issue of subsidies has been a situation that has
with 3 MW, small hydro with 3 MW, and others that could be generated over time a series of economic problems. In principle, the
included with 4 MW as shown in Table 5 will be in a smaller pro- subsidies were focused on requirements of military transport and
portion but not negligible. 2020 has an installed power of 35.18 MW later it became generalized to all transportation under pressure
and by 2050 with 74 MW. from different social groups. This not only reached the level of
The plotted scenario is considered realistic recommended. In transportation for oil derivatives, but different groups demanded
reality, there are resources such as wind and solar radiation that the application of subsidies to liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) which
would give rise to a more aggressive exploitation, however it is governments gave in to avoid disturbances or overthrows, in many
important to indicate that the population growth in the islands is cases this issue of subsidies have been misused by figures with
regulated according to current legislation and therefore the levels political interests [154]. Since the promulgated Constitution of
of exploitation Renewable energy should also be a matter of dis- Montecristi in 2008 in Ecuador, a break is promoted in the socio-
cussion and create ordinances that allow regulating the imple- economic policies where a change in the energy matrix is pro-
mentation of power plants and micro-power plants when the rates moted, especially where renewable energies are present. A firm
of access to electricity are close to covering 100% of the inhabitants. government of President Rafael Correa was not intimidated by
Several countries also contemplate plans or programs for the blackmail or impositions of the power groups, many called it an
disassembly and recycling of equipment and devices, including arrogant government [155]. However, in its period 2007e2018
solar panels, wind turbines, batteries, etc. and to take care of the there was no chaos in the streets, the economy re-emerged, the
environment. In Fig. 7 it could be seen that through the chain of subsidies unfortunately remained, however it can be rescued that a
volcanoes it can be used to generate geothermal energy on a much policy emerged that encouraged the use of clean energy. Subse-
more interesting scale than that shown in the final scenario. quently, due to the issue of subsidies, former President Lenin
However, in this scenario, a level of exploitation that does not Moreno had to face a massive march that reminded us of the 1990s
exceed 4% is considered. See Fig. 10 and Table 4. and early 2000s and had to annul Decree 883 on October 13, 2019,
In Fig. 11 and Table 5, it is possible to identify the primary power which eliminated the fuel subsidy [156]. In relation to the last
supply in the base year and the 2050 horizon. In 2050, a supply government of President Guillermo Lazo, since his inauguration on
completely integrated by renewable sources is achieved, based May 24, 2021 and in a few months he already began facing a first
mainly on solar photovoltaic and wind power. There are small march in protest of the cuts to fuel subsidies [157].
contributions from other renewable energies that make the global In summary, each government in Ecuador had to face the
system more integral. rejection of the elimination of fuel subsidies, some rulers have been
213
Fig. 10. Installed power per source in the 2020e2050 scenario in Galapagos Islands.
Table 4 by electricity. Savings can be obtained in the fiscal box around 2000
Installed power 2020 to 2050. million dollars annually and that would very well serve to increase
Source 2020 2050 sustainable projects in different sectors of the Galapagos Archi-
Diesel 27.65 0
pelago and other Ecuadorian provinces.
Solar PV 2.54 30 According to data published by the Central Bank of Ecuador
Wind 4.65 24 [158], in the period 2007 to 2016 the state has spent about 22
Biomass 0.138 6 billion USD on fossil fuel subsidies. The most subsidized fuel is
Geothermal 0 4
diesel, second is extra gasoline, then LPG with premium gasoline
Wave 0 3
Small Hydro 0 3 [19]. Meanwhile, opting for 100% renewable electric power systems
Others 0.2 4 can be obtained, for example, in the residential sector, rates equal to
or lower than $ 0.10 per kWh [34].
After having the technical analyzes regarding the production
more strategic than others and have known how to disperse pro- levels by source, we continue with the economic analysis that is an
tests or reach agreements to avoid risking the stability of the essential point and provide options for financing the energy tran-
country, however the problem remains. sition in the Galapagos Islands. In this study, three scenarios are
The way to avoid chaos in the streets and especially economic analyzed as indicated in Table 6: The first scenario consists of a
problems, is precisely that the energy transition of Ecuador that conservative one (S1), the second corresponds to the expected
includes the Galapagos Archipelago, is in a very orderly way, with scenario (S2) and finally a third corresponding to the optimistic one
adequate investments, avoiding subsidies and not paying tribute to (S3). The parameter that will vary between scenarios and that in-
these decisions that then they get out of control. Advantageously, fluences notoriously is the one related to costs, it is here that op-
there is the potential for exploitation such as the wind and the sun, tions are provided for an effective transition to 2050. The
among others that are in very good proportions. Actually the Ar- technologies involved would be between 150 and 450 million
chipelago is very privileged, in fact, in all of Ecuador. It is precisely dollars. These are considerable values but given the experience of
in this same section that the scenarios are outlined to make these the implemented projects, it is possible to make agreements be-
implementations feasible. As has been demonstrated, the use of tween different public and private institutions and make the en-
polluting technologies has brought serious problems to the country ergy transition a reality.
as a whole, not only environmental problems, but also social and In Fig. 13, the curves are presented according to the proposed
economic problems. From this analysis, the need to give the Gal- scenarios, the variability between each of them and the forecast of
apagos Archipelago a marked development path in renewable en- the final electricity production cost can be appreciated. The impact
ergies, which firmly contributes to the economic development of according to the required costs S3 are higher as it is an optimistic
the islands, is much more established. The elimination of the fuel model and requires greater economic efforts. The curves show that
subsidy looks very difficult for each of the coming governments. the less investment the final electricity production cost is higher in
The closest thing is to increase high levels of renewables and create the first 15 years, that is until 2035. All the curves S1, S2 and S3 tend
aggressive policies that encourage demand to use systems powered to flatten in the last 15 years prior to 2050 (14.03 cents USD kW/
214
Fig. 11. Primary energy in 2020 and 2050 in the Galapagos Island.
Table 5 2008 constitution in article 71 in which nature is also endowed

Base scenario and scenario to 2050,100% content with renewable energy. with rights and the regeneration of its vital cycles is required. In the
Source 2020(GWh) 2050(GWh) same way, in the National Plan All a Life that has been in force since
Diesel 32.4 0
2017 in objective 5: Promote the productivity and competitiveness
Solar PV 4 51.6 for growth economic sustainable in a way solidarity and redis-
Wind 5.42 32.5 tributive has been declared the goal for 2021 is to Increase from
Biomass 0.2 9.3 68.8% to 90% the electricity generation to through renewable en-
Geothermal 0 4.7
ergy sources, something that has not been covered by changes of
Wave 0 3.8
Small Hydro 0 3.8 government and the health emergency due to COVID 19 but
Others 0.25 4.4 without a doubt must be covered in coming years.
Although the last governments have been of different ten-
dencies, all have considered that renewable energies and the pro-
h). It is important to indicate that in none of the scenarios are cross tection of the environment is a priority. In this regard, the
subsidies, tax contributions, royalties, etc. Considered. It is assumed Galapagos Islands, having a special regime, has been a priority
that the technologies that are acquired will be completely new and objective until today, the projects implemented so far are evident.
under purchase orders. In reality, this reality may differ since Without a doubt this is a beginning, there is an arduous work that is
technologies such as donations from friendly countries, contribu- being carried out to decarbonise the islands.
tions from NGOs, among others, can be acquired, which could make The proposed energy transition will be determined by the
the transition process cheaper that would ultimately benefit the modernization of the electricity system in the Galapagos Islands,
Galapagos Archipelago and its inhabitants. this necessarily implies the allocation of economic resources,
something that at first can give rise to many questions. However,
the archipelago as a whole is entering a new framework of op-
5. Analysis and discussion portunities. Several islands are already in this line, the case of the
Canary Islands, Azores, Cape Verde and they are showing that it is
In relation to the results obtained when projecting scenarios S1, possible to carry out an energy transition. A decisive change with
S2 and S3, it is possible to make investments for the decarbon- clear policies encourages development, but above all it is necessary
ization of the islands. It is the responsibility of the Ecuadorian state to act in time after properly planning a roadmap before forcingly
to meet these social demands. Likewise, the decentralized auton- reacting on the fly. It is important to have an energy reserve system,
omous governments and the Galapagos Government Council (GGC) considered on the continental equator as a rolling reserve. In the
need to provide part of the economic resources in their manage- case of Galapagos, 7% is considered, that is, 7.7 GWh of storage of
ment, which without being sufficient can become an important the total 110.1 GWh. It is also necessary to have electricity in-
contribution. Several NGOs, support institutions for the care of the terconnections between the different islands, as is already available
environment, among others, have also shown their altruistic in- between Baltra and Santa Cruz to jointly supply energy to the
terest to contribute economically, in fact Ecuador has on countless islands, for eventual emergency situations, maintenance or even for
occasions been benefited with resources for social purposes. It is commercial exchanges. When making these interconnections, it is
fair that this sensitive Natural Heritage, unique on the planet, be important to avoid voltage and frequency variations in the
protected and developed, in accordance with what is stated in the
215
Fig. 12. Contribution percentages by renewable energy source by 2050.
Table 6
Specific economic conditions in the structuring of scenarios with a term of 2050.
Denomination Scenarios
S1 S2 S3
Percentage growth in net electricity demand until 2050 45 35 17

Total costs to 2050 in millions of dollars 150 300 450
Average percentage of growth of electricity for non-public service until 2050 15 20 25
Technical losses of electrical energy in the transmission and distribution system by 2050 (12.39% in 2019) (%) 12 11 10
Growth in penetration of electric vehicles by 2050 (%) 30 50 80
Change of LPG for electric service to heat water in the residential sector (%) 20 40 60
Acquisition of electric stoves (%). 25 50 75
Fig. 13. Production cost scenarios.
networks so as not to affect the end user, which gives rise to new must be opened, and the commercialization of electric stoves must
research in the future. be retaken with greater interest, among other aspects. It is also
There is a legal system at the country level and for the Galapagos important that new proposals arise from the National Assembly to
Islands, however, to make the decarbonization of the Islands more speed up the energy transition in Galapagos with the use of
viable, new options for the commercialization of electric vehicles renewable energy.
216
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Renewable Energy 189 (2022) 199e220

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

Decarbonization of the Galapagos Islands. Proposal to transform the

1. Introduction prominence in the incipient industrial development, establishing a

Nomenclature NZE Net Zero Emissions

as the destruction of vegetation where countless species live, which

exploited because it is an area very rich in biodiversity on the planet

Fig. 2. World energy scenario to 2040 [89].

Fig. 4. Model for long-term analysis. Version 16.1 EnergyPLAN [99].

(UNDP), the Ecuadorian Government, income tax donations from

3.3. Geothermal energy

The Galapagos Islands contain individual volcanic peaks, Isabela

and the presence of tourists and, therefore, the largest amount of

3.5. Wave energy

The Galapagos Islands are located 1000 km away from the

Island Renewable Energy (kW) Thermoelectricity (kW) TOTAL (kW)

Biomass Wind Solar PV Diesel

Santa Cruz 2250 1575 14,950 18,775

Design descriptive Solar PV Wind Biomass Geothermal Others minors Oil

Time of life (years) 40 40 40 40 40 30

Deﬁned Strategy Description

Table 5 2008 constitution in article 71 in which nature is also endowed

Fig. 12. Contribution percentages by renewable energy source by 2050.

Percentage growth in net electricity demand until 2050 45 35 17

Fig. 13. Production cost scenarios.

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