Malthusian Theory of Population

By

Dr. Mrinalini,
Guest Faculty, Dept of Econ.
M.M.C., Patna

Thomas Robert Malthus (1976-1834) enunciated his

view about population in his famous book “Essay on the Principle
of Population as it Affect the future Improvement of Society”,
published in 1798. Malthus revolted against the prevailing
optimism shared by his father and Godwin that a perfect state
could be attained if human restraints could be removed. Malthus’
objection was that the pressure of increasing population on the
food would destroy perfection and there would be misery in the
world.
He was of the view that the food output increases in
arithmetic progression, like, 1,2,3,4 and so on.
But the human population increases in geometri c
progression, like, 1,2,4,8 and so on.
He opined that during the period of 25 years, wh ile
population doubles, the food output increases by just 1 basis point.
But, the people objected to his pessimistic views which
led him to travel on the continent of Europe to gather data in
support of his thesis. He incorporated his researches in the second
edition of his Essay published in 1803. His theory of population is
based on the following postulates :
1. Food is essential for man's existence.
2. The law of diminishing returns operates in agriculture.
From these postulates, he deduced that "the power of
population is indefinitely g reater than the power in earth to
produce subsistence (food) for men", and if the increase in
population is unchecked by preventive checks, it leads to vice or
misery.
The Malthusian theory of population has been widely
discussed and ciriticised during th e 19th and early 20th century.
Some of the criticisms are as follows:
(1) Mathematical form of the theory wrong : The mathematical
formulation of Malthus' doctrine that food supply increases
in arithmetical progression and population increase in
geometrical progression in 25 years has not been proved
empirically.
(2) Failed to Foresee the opening up of New Areas : Malthus had
a narrow vision and was particularly influenced by local
conditions in England. He failed to foresee the opening up of
new areas of Australia, the United States and Argentina
where extensive farming of virgin lands led to increased
production of food.
(3) Applied a Static Economic Law to a Period of Time : Malthus
could not foresee the unprecedented increase in scientific
knowledge and agricultural inventions over a period of time
which have stayed the law of diminishing returns.
(4) Neglected the Manpower Aspect in Population : He forgot
that an increase in population' means an increase in
 manpower which may tend to increase not only agricultural
but also industrial production and thus make the country
rich by an equitable distribution of wealth and income.
(5) Population not Related to Fo od Supply but to Total Wealth :
The Malthusian theory rests on a weak relationship between
population and food supply.
(6) Importance given to only Foodgrains for Livelihood. Malthus
gave importance to only foodgrains for livelihood. But for
livelihood, foodgrains alone are not enough. Fruits, meat,
fish, milk. eggs, etc. can also be used as food.
(7) Increase in Population the Result of declining Death Rate.
The Malthusian theory is one sided. It tak es the increase in
population as the result of a rising birth rate, whereas
population has grown considerably the world over due to
decline in death rate.
(8) Empirical Evidence proves this Theory Wrong. Empirically, it
has been proved by demographists that population gr owth is
a function of the level of per capita income. When per capita
income increases rapidly, it lowers the fertility rate and the
rate of population growth declines.
(9) Preventive Checks do not Pertain to Moral Restraint. Malthus
was essentially a religious man who laid emphasis on moral
restraint to control population. But he could not visualise
that human beings would invent contraceptives and other
family planning devices for birth control.
(10) Positive Checks not due to Over -population. Malthus'
pessimism and religious education led him to believe that
over-population was a heavy burden on the earth which was
automatically lessened by God in the form of misery, wars,
famines, floods, diseases, pestilence, etc. But all these are
natural calamities which are not peculiar to over-populated
countries. They visit even those countries where the
population is on the decline or stationary, such as France and
Japan.
(13) Malthus a False Prophet. The Malthusian theory is not
applicable to countries for wh ich it was propounded. In the
West European countries, the bogey and pessimism of
Malthus has been overcome.
(14) Not Relevant to Modern Population Problems. The Malthusian
theory of population is not of much relevance to modem
population problems because it does not explain the reasons
for declining birth rate in developing countries, the
relationship between birth rate and death rate, the effects of
migration and urbanisation, etc.

Its Applicability : Despite these weakness, the Malthusian

doctrine contains much truth. The Malthusian doctrine may not be
applicable to the Western Europe and England but its principal
tools have become the part and parcel of the people of these
countries. If these lands do not face the problem s of over-
population and misery, it is all due to the bogey and pessimism of
Malthusianism. In fact, the people of Europe were made wiser by
Malthus who forewarned them of the evils of over-population and
they started adopting measures to ward it off. The very fact that
people use preventive checks, like late marriage and various
contraceptives and birth control measures on an extensive scale,
proves the vitality of the Malthusian law.
Even famous economists like Marshall and Pigo u and
sociologists like Darwin were influenced by this principle when
they incorporated it in their theories. And Keynes, initially
overawed by the Malthusian fears of over population, later wrote
about "Some Economic Consequences of Declining Population." Is it
not the fear of Malthusianism that has created the problem of
declining population in France? The Malthusian doctrine may not
be applicable now to its place of origin, but its influence spreads
over two-third of this universe inhabited by under -developed
countries. As Mrs. Joan Robinson wrote : " of all economic
doctrines, the one most relevant to the under-developed countries
is that associated with Malthus." Excluding Japan, the whole of
Asia. Africa and South America co me under its purview.
In the least developed countries of Africa, population is
growing faster than the food supply. There are dea rth’s by
starvation. Positive checks like floods, wars, droughts,
earthquakes, epidemics. etc. operate in all the under -developed
countries. Malthus wrote : —The poor are themselves the Cause of
their poverty." This is very true because it is the poor people who
are responsible for the rapid growth of population in these
countries. Thus the Malthusian theory is fully applicable to under -
developed countries. Walker was right when he wrote : "The
Malthusian theory is applicable to all communities without any
consideration of colour and place. Malthusianism has stood
unshattered, impregnable amid all the controversy that has raged
around it."
So far as India is concerned, it is not an exception.
Certain aspects of the Malthusian theory are applicable even
though we have overcome the problem of food supply. The birth
rate is high, but the death is on the decline. As a result, the growth-
rate of population is high at 1.9 per cent per annum. The country is
trying to control the phenomenon of over -population by preventive
checks by family planning devices like late marriages, by raising
the age of marriage for males and females, and the use of
contraceptives, etc. Positive checks like war, droughts, floods,
earthquakes. famines, pestilences, etc. are in operation. One-third
of the population is below the poverty line and unemployment and
disguised unemployment are widespread due to over -population.
The high growth rate of population keeps the per capita income at
a low level This has kept India among the low inc ome countries
despite its stupendous progress in agricultural , industrial and
services sectors. Haunted by the Malthusian fear. India has
adopted the population policy of family welfare which aims at
reducing poverty and unemployment so as to raise per capita
income through population control.
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