ANALYZE

THE
FUTURE

Microsoft Database TAM Model

Readout
May 6 2021
© IDC
 Agenda
Model Overview / Definitions
Quantitative
 Top Industries for Growth
 Top Geos for Growth
 OLTP vs. Analytics
 Containerization trends
 Inhibitors to container adoption

Qualitative
 What is driving customers to remain on -premises?

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Quantitative

- Overall
- Industries
- Geos
- OLTP v Analytics
- Containerization

© IDC 3
 Model Taxonomy
ld§olt®441
Geography

Australia
Technology
T~chnolog
Server
Database
Datab~se Technology
03t3
Technolog,
Data M3M9c:mc:t1t
Management
i ·M!iMitQ
Database type

Structured DA
DA
Database
IBM
Platform
Datab~se Platform lndusu,
Industry

Communications & Media

14¥441::P:\M Mi·MP.l:F
Deployment

011-prc:mi::;c:/Othc.1::
On-premise/Others
Location

Off Premises
V1rtltn M ethod
Virtualization
Containers
Method mYear

2010
2019
IW&fuMti4Nlh
Technology

Soltw.::irc:
Software
Metric

Revenue

Canada Sc:rvc:r
Server Data Management
03t3 M3t1~9c:rMftt Structurc:dOM
Structured DM Micro::oh
Microsoft Oi::tributlon
Distribution (Rc:t~il ti \+/holc:::::ilc)
(Retail & Wholesale) Priv::ite
Private Clo1Jd Cloud On Premises Containers on Virtual Machines 2020
2020 Server
Server U11it:::Shlppc:d
Units Shipped

CEE
CEE Server 0Data
::it3 Management
M:i,Mgc:mc:"t Ut1:::tr1Jcturc:d OA
Unstructured DA Opc:t1
Open Source: Non·rc:fation~I
Source Non-relational Et1cr9y
Energy &&; Utilitic::::
Utilities Public Cloud Non-virtualized 2021
2021 Storage Tc:r:i,bytc:::
Terabytes

fr ~f'l<C:
France Server 0Data
3t3 M:i,M9c:mc:t1t
Management Unstructured DM Opc:t1
Open Source:
Source Rd~tion:i,I
Relational Financial Services Traditional Virtual Machines 2022
2022

Germany Softw:i,rc:
Software 03\3 Management /I [)yMmk
Data M::iMgc:mut 03t3 M::it1::i9c:1Mt1t
Dynamic Data Management Sy:::tc:m:::
Systems Uft::tructu1c:dOA
Unstructured Or.::idc:
DA
Oracle Govc:rt1mc:nt Educ.::iatiofl
Government & Education 2023
2023

India Softw~rc:
Software O::it;i,
Data M::it1::i9c:mut O,n::imk O:iit:ii
Management /I Dynamic M::it1~9c:mc:t1t Systems
Data Management Sy:: Unstructured DM Othc.r
Other Hc::ilthc:iorc:
Healthcare 2024
2024

J:i,p:i,t1
Japan Software O::it:ii
Data M:iit1:i,gc:1Mt1t
Management /I Rc:1:iitioMI
Relational O:iit::ib:ii::c: M::in::i9c:mc:t1t Systems
Database Management Sy::tc:m:: (ROBMS)
(RDBMS) Structured DA SAP
SAP M:i,t1uf.::icturit19
Manufacturing

LATAM Softw~rc
Software O::it:ii
Data M::it1::i9c:mc:t1t
Management /I Rc:fatiot1::il
Relational O::it::ib::i::c: M::in9c:mc:ftt Systems
Database Management Sy:::tc:m:: ((ROBMS)
RDBMS) St1uctu1c:dOM
Structured DM Other
Other

MEA
MEA Stor~gc:
Storage 0::it:ii
Data M::iM9c:mc:t1t
Management Structurc:dOA
Structured DA

PRC
PRC Stor~gc:
Storage O::it;i,
Data M::it1;ii9c:mc:t1t
Management Structurc:dOM
Structured DM

Rc::::t
Rest of of APeJC
APc:JC Stor~gc:
Storage O;iit;i,M::in::i9c:mc:nt
Data Management Unstructured DA

Rc::::t
Rest of olw'E
WE Stor~gc
Storage O::it;iiM::in;i,9c:mc:t1t
Data Management Ut1::t11,chuc:d OM
Unstructured DM

UK

USA

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 Database Platforms Open-Source Non-Relational Database Platforms
• Apache Hadoop
IBM • Apache Spark
Microsoft • AWS Elastic Map Reduce
Open Source Non-relational • Cloudera
Open Source Relational • Databricks
Oracle • HPE Ezmeral
Other • Ignite Infobright
SAP • Google Dataproc
• Google Big Query
• Microsoft HDInsight
Open-Source Relational Database Platforms • Microsoft Synapse
• Edge Intelligence • AWS DocumentDB
• ElephantSQL • Couchbase
• EnterpriseDB PostgreSQL • Google DataStore
• MariaDB • MarkLogic
• Oracle MySQL • MongoDB
• Percona • Microsoft Azure Cosmos
• TimeScale • Software AG Tamino

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 Key Definitions
Important Notes on comparing revenue to servers/storage:
 Revenue view does not include split on location (on-premises vs off-premises)
 This view not possible due to revenue guidance from suppliers
 Instead public cloud vs. on-premises/other is included where other includes any
off-premises private cloud
 Unpaid (free) opensource software is a major contributor to the differences in the
profile of the software revenue vs. servers/storage views. This has a major impact
in public cloud views where use of opensource database software is relatively
common.

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 Database Platform Forecast
 IDC sees the cloud as the main growth driver
100% in this market, both for relational and NoSQL
Software Revenue

75%
$13,281 $14,779 $16,895 $22,357 systems.
$30,082 $38,977
$M USD

 On-prem is not going away anytime soon;

50%
Public Cloud larger enterprises are converting to the
25%
$32,003 $30,254 $29,399 $30,058 $30,163
cloud but as part of a long-range plan.
$30,476 On-premise/Others
 NoSQL growth will accelerate as cloud
0%
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
adoption goes along, because most on-prem
is open source generating minimal revenue,
100% while cloud versions require a fee.
768,750
Server Units

75% 870,452 919,332 1,010,399 1,084,546 1,161,682

Public Cloud
Software $ 9%
50% 219,184
223,511 253,333 287,298 319,238 354,529 Private Cloud  Public Cloud 24%
25% 828,444 Traditional  On-premises/others -1%
691,093 737,033 753,913 756,602 762,259
0% Server Units 5%
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024  Public Cloud 9%
 Private Cloud 10%
100%  Traditional -2%
Storage - Terabytes

34,196,006
75% 39,664,802 56,662,273 80,634,579 107,642,202 137,581,248 Storage 24%
Public Cloud
50% 11,511,089
12,554,534 Private Cloud
 Public Cloud 32%
17,692,779
25%
25,053,887 34,171,219 45,620,086  Private Cloud 32%
33,458,623 Traditional
29,001,798 33,310,996 37,692,914 43,345,090 49,399,517
 Traditional 8%
0%  Off Premises 31%
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024  On Premises 12%

© IDC 7
 Industries 2021
Comms &
7.0% 13.0% Comms & Media,
Media, 234,522 $4,777
6.0% Healthcare, 12.0%
Financial
51,961 Gov & Edu, 11.0% Services,

Software Revenue
5.0% 290,815 Gov & Edu,
10.0% $6,678
Server Units

Distribution,

$M USD
4.0% 146,662 Financial 9.0%

CAGR
CAGR

Healthcare, Manufacturing,
Services, 8.0% $2,678
3.0% $7,924
300,406 Energy & Energy &
Utilities, 84,286 7.0% Utilities,
2.0% $2,083
Manufacturing, 6.0%
Distribution,
1.0% 239,524
5.0% $4,476

0.0% 4.0%
44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49% 50% 51% 52% 61% 62% 63% 64% 65% 66% 67% 68%

% On-premise % On-premise / Other

Healthcare,
30.0% 2,949,727
 Distribution (Retail and Wholesale) are more likely to
28.0% Distribution, Financial deploy database workloads on-premise.
Gov & Edu,
Storage - Terabytes

9,478,351 Services,
26.0% 15,232,888 14,225,467  Highly regulated industries (government, energy,
CAGR

Energy &
Utilities,
healthcare) are less likely to deploy database
24.0% 3,862,383 workloads on-premise.
 Note server/storage infrastructure view, are influenced
22.0% Comms &
Manufacturing, Media,
strongly by free opensource database solutions (these
20.0% 13,120,630 12,580,552 of course generate zero database software revenue).
27% 29% 31% 33% 35% 37% 39% 41% 43% 45% 47%
% On-premise

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 Industries 2024
14%
7.0% Financial Services, $15,154 Comms &
13%
Comms & Media, $6,853
Gov & Edu,
6.0% Media, 284,073 12%
341,950
11% Gov & Edu,

Software Revenue
5.0%
$8,675
Financial 10%
Server Units

Manufacturing,

$M USD
4.0% Services,

CAGR
CAGR

Healthcare, 9% $10,071
359,772
Energy &
3.0% 60,602 8%
Energy & Utilities, $2,785
Utilities, 99,081 7%
2.0%
Distribution, 6% Distribution, Healthcare,
1.0% 172,674
Manufacturing, 5% $6,041 $3,547
272,112
0.0% 4%
34% 36% 38% 40% 42% 44% 37% 39% 41% 43% 45% 47% 49%
% On-premise % On-premise

30.0% Healthcare,
Distribution,
6,857,513
21,876,393
Storage - Terabytes

28.0%
Financial Services,
33,408,508
26.0%
CAGR

Gov & Edu,

Comms & Media, 29,026,632
25,741,838
24.0%

22.0%
Manufacturing, Energy & Utilities,
27,581,580 7,774,496
20.0%
22% 24% 26% 28% 30% 32% 34% 36% 38% 40%
% On-premise

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 Geo 2021
8.0% UK, 79,471 35.0%
PRC, $3,373
Germany,
107,311 30.0%
France, 58,386
6.0% 25.0%
Rest of WE,

Software Revenue
163,204 PRC, 396,306 LATAM, $2,355
20.0%
Server Units

4.0%

$M USD

CAGR
USA, 672,277 USA, $21,856
CAGR

15.0% Germany,
UK, $2,074
10.0% $2,634
2.0%
CEE, 40,298 France, $1,512
5.0%
Rest of APeJC,
0.0% $1,884
Rest of APeJC, Japan, 77,418 0.0% Japan, $2,679
Rest of WE,
92,838 $4,300
-5.0%
-2.0%
-20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
25% 35% 45% 55% 65% 75% 85% 95%

% On-premise % On-premise / Other

45.0%
USA,
38,984,360 PRC, Significant growth in database storage, driven by
35.0% 18,791,825 cloud database deployments
Storage - Terabytes

25.0% Rest of APeJC, Australia,

1,863,430
Huge growth in cloud storage, especially in the
5,885,544
United States and China
CAGR

Japan,
15.0%
2,432,226
Much lower storage growth in Europe
UK, 2,369,150
5.0%
Rest of WE, Germany,
CEE, 1,822,755 • Including declines in on-premises storage for
5,249,244 3,322,233 Western Europe (-6% for UK, France, Germany)
-5.0%
7% 17% 27% 37% 47% 57% 67%
% On-premise

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 Geo 2024
32%
10.0% PRC, $6,784
USA, 796,928
Rest of APeJC, PRC, 685,710 27%
8.0%
141,720

Software Revenue
6.0% 22%

CAGR
USA, $35,661 LATAM, $3,838
Server Units

$M USD
UK, 71,423 17%
4.0%
CAGR

France, 53,274 Japan, $3,449

2.0% 12%
Rest of WE, Germany,
146,837 Germany, $3,407
96,799 Rest of WE,
0.0% 7%
$5,308
14% 24% 34% 44% 54% UK, $2,587
-2.0% 2%
Japan, 68,983 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
-4.0% % On-premise
% On-premise
45.0%
USA, 138,717,319
40.0%

35.0% PRC, 43,390,746

30.0%
Storage - Terabytes

25.0% Rest of APeJC,

12,243,251
CAGR

20.0% Australia,
4,213,067
15.0%
Germany,
10.0% 5,032,833
Japan, 4,147,401
5.0% Rest of WE,
7,631,131
UK, 3,699,195
0.0%
5% 15% 25% 35% 45% 55%
-5.0%
% On-premise

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 OLTP vs. Analytics
100%

 Analytics are migrating to the cloud

Software Revenue

75%
29,629 29,082 29,679 33,141 37,098 41,832
more quickly than operational (OLTP)
$M USD

50% OLTP
■
system, resulting in higher overall
Analytics
25%
15,951 16,615 19,273 23,148 27,621
■ growth.
15,656
0%  Most OLTP growth is, nonetheless, in
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 the cloud.
100%

75% 1,016,733 1,097,949 1,175,710 1,230,278 1,295,313 Software $ 9%

Server Units

1,077,717
50% ■
OLTP  OLTP 7%
■
Analytics  Analytics 12%
25% 768,323 930,107 983,158
738,661 811,750 875,900
0% Server Units 5%
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024  OLTP 4%
 Analytics 6%
100%
Storage 24%
Storage - Terabytes

75%
47,238,337 48,453,438 64,095,060 87,065,633 115,308,294 146,570,803
OLTP
 OLTP 25%
50% ■
Analytics
 Analytics 22%
25% ■
31,927,380 32,767,696 43,570,989 56,315,747 69,850,217 86,030,048
0%
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

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 Containerization Trends
100%
Container Infrastructure
57,885 54,930 72,750 87,127 102,131 119,072
130,489 137,843 171,476 203,318 236,011 273,597
 14% in 2021
75% 614,520 554,283 586,091 609,953 625,823 655,891
 18% in 2024
Server Units

50%
CAGR
 Non-virtualized 1%
1,040,139 977,934 1,006,626 1,046,758
25% 1,060,668 1,075,490  VM 4%
 Containers 20%
0%  Containers on VM 20%
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

■ Non-virtualized ■ Virtual Machines ■ Containers ■ Containers on Virtual Machines

 Hyperscale web providers use
mostly containers on bare metal
• Container deployment is a high growth segment
 Public cloud providers use
• Non-virtualized / VMs remain dominant architecture containers in VMs
 Enterprise on-prem is primarily
containers in VMs today, but
interest in bare metal is growing

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 Inhibitors to Container Infrastructure
Overall, security concerns are more likely to be an inhibitor than other concerns measured.

Less than 9% said that “poor

Security concerns 55%
DB performance in a container
setting” is an inhibitor.
Migration complexity 32%
Concerns around security is
DBA skill set / training in container infrastructure 31% the top challenge overall for
container deployers, not just
for DB workloads, and typical
Monitoring and management limitations 28% for any new technology

Containers not well suited for stateful database

24% For existing workloads that are
workloads
complex, typical challenges
revolve around how to adapt to
Unaware of solutions 13% new environment:

Poor database performance in a container • Skills

9%
setting • Tooling
• Migration
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

~
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IDC I ~~tLYZE
FUTURE
QE2. What are the inhibitors to adopting container infrastructure for your database workloads over the
next 3 to 5 years? n= 202, 178, 177, 189, 179, 200 © IDC 14
Qualitative
Database Type
Definitions

© IDC 15
On-premises drivers
QE1. What are the primary business and technical reasons for keeping databases on-premise over the next
3 to 5 years? n= 202, 178, 177, 189, 179, 200

Cloud migration complexity 32% These constraints

are particularly
Cloud migration expense 28%
acute for large
Satisfy regulatory concerns, e.g. GDPR 27%
enterprises.

Satisfy data latency requirements 25%

Supporting data sovereignty requirements 25%

Supporting GDPR requirements 25%

Applications are legacy and will soon be retired and

22%
replaced by SaaS

Lack of Cloud Skills 10%

None of the above 3%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

© IDC 16
 Structured Data Management
-=---........,________

Structured data management software includes products that

manage a common set of defined data that is kept in one or
more databases (structures of managed data shared by multiple
application programs) and is driven by data definitions and
rules, whether this involves a single database accessed directly
by applications or distributed databases accessed by multiple
applications in multiple locations. A database management
system (DBMS) is a software entity that manages a database in
such a way that it may be queried and randomly updated. It
includes.

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 Structured Data Analytics
-=---........,________

 Structured data analytics software is designed for data access,

analysis, and delivery of (majorly) structured data.

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 Unstructured Data Analytics
-=---........,________

 Unstructured data analytics includes artificial intelligence

software platforms and content analytics and search
software.

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 Unstructured Data Management
-=---........,________

 Unstructured data management includes Dynamic data

management systems can accept data without requiring that
the structure and elements of the data be defined in advance.
These include scalable data collection managers (the most
common being Hadoop) and dynamic DBMSs. Because they
do not require the use of SQL, dynamic DBMSs are sometimes
called NoSQL database systems.

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 IDC Project Team
Carl Olofson
Research Vice President, Data Management Software
https://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=PRF000293

Andrew Ware
Vice President, Custom Solutions
https://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=PRF000399

Carol Glasheen
Vice President, Quantitative Research Group, Custom Solutions
https://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=PRF000140

Rasmus Andsbjerg
Program Director, WW Software and Public Cloud Services Trackers
https://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=PRF004806

Kuba Stolarski
Research Director, Infrastructure Systems, Platforms and Technologies Group
https://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=PRF002368

Analyst biographies are available on idc.com

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