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    Strategic Scenario Planning Presentation

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    taghavi1347
    The document discusses blending traditional and scenario-based strategic planning. It outlines 7 steps: 1) enlist stakeholder input, 2) identify external impact variables, 3) identify internal impact variables, 4) create future world scenarios, 5) apply strategies to each scenario, 6) apply results to a matrix, 7) assess probabilities and commonalities. The goal is to develop robust strategic plans by incorporating both traditional SWOT analysis and future scenario planning to prepare the organization for different potential futures.

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    Strategic Scenario Planning Presentation

    Uploaded by

    taghavi1347
    87 views30 pages
    The document discusses blending traditional and scenario-based strategic planning. It outlines 7 steps: 1) enlist stakeholder input, 2) identify external impact variables, 3) identify internal impact variables, 4) create future world scenarios, 5) apply strategies to each scenario, 6) apply results to a matrix, 7) assess probabilities and commonalities. The goal is to develop robust strategic plans by incorporating both traditional SWOT analysis and future scenario planning to prepare the organization for different potential futures.

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    Scenario Planning

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    The document discusses blending traditional and scenario-based strategic planning. It outlines 7 steps: 1) enlist stakeholder input, 2) identify external impact variables, 3) identify internal impact variables, 4) create future world scenarios, 5) apply strategies to each scenario, 6) apply results to a matrix, 7) assess probabilities and commonalities. The goal is to develop robust strategic plans by incorporating both traditional SWOT analysis and future scenario planning to prepare the organization for different potential futures.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    87 views30 pages

    Strategic Scenario Planning Presentation

    Uploaded by

    taghavi1347
    The document discusses blending traditional and scenario-based strategic planning. It outlines 7 steps: 1) enlist stakeholder input, 2) identify external impact variables, 3) identify internal impact variables, 4) create future world scenarios, 5) apply strategies to each scenario, 6) apply results to a matrix, 7) assess probabilities and commonalities. The goal is to develop robust strategic plans by incorporating both traditional SWOT analysis and future scenario planning to prepare the organization for different potential futures.

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    At a glance
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    The key takeaways are that traditional strategic planning focuses on assessing current internal and external factors, while scenario-based strategic planning focuses on exploring potential future uncertainties and developing strategies to handle different potential futures. An ideal approach blends elements of both.

    The main elements of traditional strategic planning are identifying the corporate vision and mission, completing a SWOT analysis, developing strategies based on strengths and weaknesses, developing initiatives to achieve strategies, implementing initiatives, and measuring effectiveness.

    The main elements of scenario-based strategic planning are identifying future external uncertainties, exploring implications of those uncertainties, developing potential future scenarios, developing strategies to handle each scenario, and developing a vision and mission that incorporates the scenarios.

    STRATEGIC PLANNING

    Blending Traditional and Scenario Based Planning


    TRADITIONAL VS. SCENARIO-BASED
    STRATEGIC PLANNING
    Elements of Traditional Strategic
    Planning
    BASICS OF TRADITIONAL STRATEGIC
    PLANNING

    1. Identify corporate identity


    1. Vision
    2. Mission
    2. Complete a SWOT Analysis
    1. Current internal strengths and weaknesses
    2. Current external opportunities and threats
    3. Develop a strategy to benefit from internal strengths while minimizing internal weaknesses
    so that your organization can capitalize on external opportunities and minimize external
    threats.
    4. Develop specific initiatives (actions, goals, plans) to achieve the strategy(s) identified.
    5. Implement initiatives
    6. Measure effectiveness
    ELEMENTS OF
    SCENARIO BASED
    STRATEGIC PLANNING
    BASICS OF SCENARIO-BASED STRATEGIC
    PLANNING

    1. Identify future external uncertainties (risks, trends and ambiguities)


    2. Explore the implications of those uncertainties coming to fruition.
    3. Develop a few potential future world views (that incorporate plausible combinations of
    uncertainties).
    4. Develop corporate strategies to best position the organization to handle each world
    view.
    5. Develop mission and vision for the organization that incorporates world views.
    LIMITATIONS TO • How do we develop a future-looking
    ONLY vision and mission for the organization if
    UTILIZING we are only assessing current trends and
    TRADITIONAL issues in our strategic plans?
    STRATEGIC • Is it appropriate to define current
    PLANNING strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and
    threats in a long-term, highly uncertain
    environment?
    • How are strategies developed and what
    There's a Big are they based on?
    Difference!
    • How are initiatives selected and what are
    they based on?
    • Should we be planning for 5 years or 30
    years?
    LIMITATIONS TO • What about the short term? What do
    ONLY we do for the next 5-10 years?
    UTILIZING • How can we get more buy-in and
    SCENARIO- stakeholder involvement in a
    BASED traditionally executive level-only
    exercise?
    STRATEGIC
    • How can we develop strategies to
    PLANNING address world views if we don’t know
    what our current and future internal
    state is?
    • How do we know if our strategies are
    working if there is no feedback loop?
    • How do we assess whether the future
    world scenarios are unfolding as
    assumed?
    • How can we integrate the strategic
    LIMITATIONS TO plan into other organization-wide
    plans for cohesion?
    BOTH
    • Long-term financial plan, resource plan,
    TRADITIONAL environmental plan, human resource plan,
    AND SCENARIO etc.
    BASED • How can we tie in departmental and
    STRATEGIC individual contributor performance
    PLANNING measures to the strategic plan?
    • Building in accountability ensures buy-in and
    follow through of a strategic plan
    • How do we establish feedback loops
    to track initiative performance?
    • item completed vs. item completed
    and still relevant
    BLENDING TRADITIONAL AND
    SCENARIO-BASED PLANNING FOR A
    MORE ROBUST STRATEGIC PLAN
    ENLIST
    STAKEHOLDER
    INPUT
    Step 1
    OUTREACH / RESEARCH

    • The goal of outreach is to identify • Employees


    themes of commonality of thought
    • Subject matter experts
    between subject matter experts,
    management and stakeholders. What do • Board of Directors / Council / Review
    they feel is the most pressing concern or Panel
    most advantageous opportunity? • Upstream and downstream business
    partners
    • Competitors
    • Consumers
    IDENTIFY AND
    ASSESS
    EXTERNAL
    IMPACT
    VARIABLES

    Step 2
    BRAINSTORM
    EXTERNAL
    AMBIGUITIES,
    THREATS
    AND TRENDS

    Small Group Brainstorming


    IDENTIFY AND
    ASSESS INTERNAL
    IMPACT VARIABLES
    Step 3
    BRAINSTORM
    INTERNAL
    WEAKNESSES
    AND
    STRENGTHS

    Small Group Brainstorming


    CREATE FUTURE
    WORLD
    SCENARIOS BASED
    ON COMBINATIONS
    OF EXTERNAL
    IMPACT VARIABLES

    Step 4
    WORLD SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT

    • Based on small group brainstorming facilitation with subject matter experts,


    utility management, and key stakeholders, develop three external probable
    future world scenarios the utility may be operating in during year 5, 20 and 30.
    • Brainstorming sessions generally result in “aha’s” “YES, I agree’s”, and “That
    too’s”.
    • World scenarios will be developed from commonality of thought and
    consensus.
    • World scenarios will incorporate plausible combinations of external factors
    and hypothesis.
    APPLY STRATEGIES
    TO EACH WORLD
    SCENARIO TO
    “GAME” INTERNAL
    READINESS AND
    RESPONSE
    REQUIREMENTS
    Step 5
    GAMING

    • Based on small group brainstorming facilitation with utility


    management, develop baseline internal preparedness for external
    considerations and potential future world preparedness.
    • Brainstorming sessions generally result in “Oh, we need to fix
    that”, “We GOT IT”, and “Hmm, let me think about how we need
    to prepare for that”.
    • Internal preparedness identifies areas of internal change
    necessary to be best prepared to handle each future world.
    APPLY GAME THEORY
    RESULTS INTO A
    MATRIX

    Step 6
    Impact Zones
    Facilities Energy Transformation Government
    People and and Innovation and and Commun -
    Operations Finance Environmental
    Culture Oversight and Customer Legislative ications
    Services Resources Experience Affairs
    Build New Zero Prepare for
    The Green Offer More Green
    Carbon °°° °°° °°° Intense °°° °°° °°°
    Customer Programs
    World Views

    Mile Generation Electrification

    Update
    Improve Debt Initiate Pro
    Invest in Look for attrition Emergency Assess Hydro Life to
    Mad Max Position by °°° Retrench Focus on Federal Seattle
    Transmission opportunities Outage Scenario Value
    2024 Campaign
    Planning

    It's a
    °°° Stay the Course °°° °°° °°° °°° °°° °°° Stay the Course
    Wonderful Life

    What do we need to do in each internal


    functional area to best position itself for each
    world view scenario?
    ASSESS
    PROBABILITIES AND
    COMMONALITIES OF
    GAMING RESULTS

    Step 7
    REFINE DATA TO ENHANCE RESULTS

    COMMONALITIES / MUTUAL
    PROBABILITIES EXCLUSIONS

    • Assign probabilities to each external • Look and account for commonalities in


    variable world views to maximize or “weight”
    or
    strategy development plans.

    • Assign probabilities to each world view • Look for and consider mutually exclusive
    strategies for distinctly different world
    or views.
    • Assign probabilities to each “set” of
    external variables
    CREATE YOUR
    STRATEGIC PLAN

    Step 8
    CREATE A STRATEGIC Search for the corporate-wide
    PLAN THAT ADDRESSES solution for each functional area
    THREE DISTINCT LONG- that covers the most world views
    TERM FUTURES AND
    SHORT-TERM PLANS with the highest probability of
    occurrence.

     Consistencies in planning for each scenario


     Mutual exclusions for each scenario
    “I Still Haven’t  Apply probability potential to each scenario
    Found What I’m  Applicability to short-term plans
    Looking For…”
     Transition from short-term to long-term plan
     Develop SMART initiatives to achieve solutions to
    internal weaknesses based on world view scenarios
    DEFINE AND
    MANAGE TASKS TO
    ACHIEVE PRIORITIES

    Step 9
    FEED PRIORITIES
    AND TASKS INTO
    OTHER INTERNAL
    PLANS
    Step 10
    Priorities and Tasks
    GRAPHIC AL REFERENCES

    • https://mgcobb.com/2017/12/07/strategic-planning-models-better-than-traditional-approach/

    • https://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.themanager.org%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2015%2F08%2FTraditional-Strategy-
    Process.jpg&imgrefurl=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.themanager.org%2F2015%2F08%2Fstrategy-making-1-traditional-strategy-
    process%2F&docid=bzif3jEKxbwFUM&tbnid=rD3BQjARzSmRRM%3A&vet=10ahUKEwiQkJHDnZzkAhVSoFsKHWmABu4QMwhRKAEwAQ..i&w=550&h=591&bih=702&biw=1033&q
    =traditional%20strategic%20planning%20approach&ved=0ahUKEwiQkJHDnZzkAhVSoFsKHWmABu4QMwhRKAEwAQ&iact=mrc&uact=8

    • http://www.blog.zenleadership.net/2011/04/strategic-planning-is-old-school.html

    • https://www.forbes.com/sites/stratfor/2015/01/08/scenario-planning-and-strategic-forecasting/#44c355b3411a

    • https://www.smestrategy.net/blog/what-is-scenario-planning-and-how-to-use-it

    • https://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.researchgate.net%2Fpublication%2F283294473%2Ffigure%2Ffig1%2FAS%3A613932192526343%401523384249946%2FH
    HL-Roland-Berger-approach-to-scenario-based-strategic-planning-Source-Wulf-2010-25.png&imgrefurl=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.researchgate.net%2Ffigure%2FHHL-Roland-Berger-
    approach-to-scenario-based-strategic-planning-Source-Wulf-2010-25_fig1_283294473&docid=xtSGc8OnxS5HLM&tbnid=0jfr8b1QpIshHM%3A&vet=10ahUKEwiBq-
    iLuJzkAhV1GDQIHYOdDwMQMwg_KAEwAQ..i&w=850&h=553&bih=751&biw=1033&q=scenario%20based%20strategic%20planning&ved=0ahUKEwiBq-
    iLuJzkAhV1GDQIHYOdDwMQMwg_KAEwAQ&iact=mrc&uact=8

    • https://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.quickmeme.com%2Fimg%2F2d%2F2df672f6c34ad0c98b7e2af347d9a35e9b27f061d4d9dc10e4d62ca1c3d5567f.jpg&imgref
    url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.quickmeme.com%2Fmeme%2F3ryt1e&docid=iAvmCJHJ3NkiEM&tbnid=ydBKw_Zy9i2CTM%3A&vet=10ahUKEwik152mk5_kAhXnHjQIHXx7CBQQMwhK
    KAAwAA..i&w=300&h=400&bih=969&biw=1920&q=but%20what%20do%20I%20do%20now%3F&ved=0ahUKEwik152mk5_kAhXnHjQIHXx7CBQQMwhKKAAwAA&iact=mrc&uact=
    8

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